Reward processing and regulation of emotions are thought to impact the development of addictive behaviors. In this study, we aimed to determine whether neural responses during reward anticipation, threat appraisal, emotion reactivity, and cognitive reappraisal predicted the transition from low-level to hazardous alcohol use over a 12-month period. Seventy-eight individuals aged 18-22 with low-level alcohol use [i.e. Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) score <7] at baseline were enrolled. They completed reward-based and emotion regulation tasks during magnetic resonance imaging to examine reward anticipation, emotional reactivity, cognitive reappraisal, and threat anticipation (in the nucleus accumbens, amygdala, superior frontal gyrus, and insula, respectively). Participants completed self-report measures at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month follow-up time points to determine if they transitioned to hazardous use (as defined by AUDIT scores ≥8). Of the 57 participants who completed follow-up, 14 (24.6%) transitioned to hazardous alcohol use. Higher baseline AUDIT scores were associated with greater odds of transitioning to hazardous use (odds ratio = 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.13-2.66, P = .005). Brain activation to reward, threat, and emotion regulation was not associated with alcohol use. Of the neural variables, the amygdala response to negative imagery was numerically larger in young adults who transitioned to hazardous use (g =0.31), but this effect was not significant. Baseline drinking levels were significantly associated with the transition to hazardous alcohol use. Studies with larger samples and longer follow-up should test whether the amygdala response to negative emotional imagery can be used to indicate a future transition to hazardous alcohol use.
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