Hazard Risk Analysis Research Articles

Spatial characteristics of storm‐total rainfall swaths associated with tropical cyclones over the Eastern United States

ABSTRACTThe eastern United States is extremely vulnerable to Atlantic basin tropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated precipitation. While many studies have focused on the magnitude or contribution of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) to overall rainfall, there is a need for a detailed climatology of spatial characteristics of inland TCP extent for this region. In this study, we develop a Geographic Information System method to delineate rainfall swaths for 257 US landfalling TCs during 1948 to 2014 using a daily gridded dataset. We then describe spatial patterns of TCP using three methods. First, we measure the rainfall swath areas and average widths over land, and find that TCs that spend longer periods over land have wider average widths so that rainfall swaths cover larger areas. Second, trends in the change of left extent of TCP swaths are analysed and TC attributes related to these trends are explored. Seventy of 85 TCs have rain swaths that expand on the left side at some points as they move inland. The TCs exhibiting expansion were hurricanes at landfall, re‐intensifying over land, undergoing extratropical transition, and/or moving near the coastline. Last, we construct a series of maps with return intervals and frequency distributions for inland TCP and tropical storm‐force winds. The results show that 94% of 2435 counties over the eastern United States are more frequently exposed to rainfall than wind from TCs. While cumulative rainfall shows a gradual decrease from southeastern coast inland, many inland regions have received five to six TCP events in a single season, which confirms that TCP should be a concern for people living inland as well as near the coast. This study's analysis of the spatial characteristics of TCP inland extent from a climatological perspective should benefit forecasting, hazard mitigation, and risk analysis of TC hazards.

Hazard identification and risk analysis for a reinforced concrete rolling mill

PurposeBecause of non-satisfactory results obtained at the iron rods steel mill, during the last period of work and to collect relevant data to facilitate rapid and efficient decision-making, the purpose of this study is to describe a global analysis method of risks encountered by companies resulting from their own effects or by their environment to integrate prevention as soon as the conception of work place. From this point of view, it seems that it is time for companies that did learn to master direct costs to learn how to control indirect costs, which means controlling the risks and learning to face them once they are detected.Design/methodology/approachThe method of work used is hazard identification and risk assessment (HIRA), which is based on Kinney evaluation. The HIRA allowed the authors to collect and analyze different dangers and risks at work posts and consider different corrective measures to prevent damages. The HIRA techniques are based on identifying the different hazardous situations and the risk related to each working station; the risks are identified and are classified and mitigated accordingly. Using unique criteria, the objective of the risk assessment part is to assign to each risk a numerical value. The criteria used for classifying and ordering the risk importance depend greatly on the selected method.FindingsRisks are identified, classified and mitigated accordingly using Kinney method criteria depending on three factors: frequency of exposure (NE), probability of occurrence (NP) and severity level (NG). The level of risk mitigation (NM) is obtained as the product of the three factors (NP, NG and NE). Using the Pareto plot (20-80 per cent), the authors highlighted the priorities to be taken in the order of importance of the most important causes to take targeted measures.Originality/valueThis work is an opportunity for the steel mill complex to start a global approach in prevention of risks and improve working conditions. This can be reached by taking into consideration the technical, organizational and human solutions; It would not be a better method to search for ways and means to reach better prevention of industrial and technological risks, but it will preserve health of workers and get to a global higher level of security. Also, the steel mill complex can be engaged in a continuous improvement process. Therefore, management of risks will be a relevant way to decrease undesirable effects due to the diverse activities of the company.

Developing a Web-Based Supporting Application for Individual Evacuation Plans Through Hazard Risk and Geographical Analyses

After the 2011 East Japan Earthquake, the Japanese Cabinet Office has promoted local governments and communities to develop a “Community Disaster Management Plan.” Local governments started to hold workshops to develop the said plan for residents in local communities. However, only a few residents (i.e., those who are interested in disaster prevention) participate in these workshops; thus, most residents do not have opportunities to survey disaster prevention. Considering this issue, we decided to develop a supporting application for individual disaster management plans by analyzing hazard risks and land features. In this research, we focused on evacuation planning for residents. Furthermore, we developed it as web-based application as any resident connected to the internet may be struggling with their evacuation. In our proposed application, users have to take seven steps: (1) learn features of tsunami attack and countermeasures during a tsunami disaster, (2) set start point for evacuation, (3) set first and second goal for evacuation based on lessons learned from the “Miracle of Kamaishi,” (4) search the shortest evacuation route from start point through the first goal to the second goal, (5) review change of elevation on the evacuation route, (6) review hazard risks and land feature on the evacuation route and to reroute if necessary, and (7) download their settled evacuation route to their own devices as a GPX file. After developing a prototype of the application, we published it as a web service. While the publishing was in process, we gathered logs on how users took actions based on our proposed application. Approximately 10 days after publishing the prototype, we analyzed the path of users’ action flow, and we detected issues that need to be resolved to improve esidents’ disaster management capacity during tsunami disasters. Generally, our application helped prepared users for tsunami disaster prevention.

Risk assessment of uranium hexafluoride release from a uranium conversion facility by using a fuzzy approach

Amongst the Industrial hazards, the release of toxic materials is of great importance to risk assessment of chemical industries. Uranium Hexafluoride (UF6) under some circumstances could be a very dangerous material to human health and the environment and in the case of release may have catastrophic consequences. In this study, the probability of UF6 release from a uranium conversion facility was analyzed by utilization of fault tree analysis (FTA) method. FTA is a well-known established technique in risk analysis of potential hazards. However, some shortcomings such as lack of reliability data are always a matter of concern in FTA application. To overcome this issue, expert elicitation and fuzzy set theory was applied. Results of the study showed the probability of 5.378E-4 for UF6 gas release from the uranium conversion systems. Importance and sensitivity analyses have also been conducted to evaluate the percentage contribution of each component to the top event occurrence and to identify the weak points of the whole facility. Through the study, it was determined that the operator failure and lack of a reliable automatic shut-down system are the two main important reasons for UF6 release.

Toxicological analysis of ambient monitoring in metal industry

Metal industry is the source of many chemical hazards and their synergic effects could damage the health of occupationally exposed population. The application of toxicological analysis in this paper was to investigate the risk of toxic metals and other chemical hazards in the workplace. The aim is to demonstrate and quantify indicators of pollution in the working environment and perceive (realize) the possible health consequences on occupationally exposed population. The subject of research in this paper is the toxicological risk analysis of toxic metals and other chemical hazards in metal industry, based on a survey of ambient monitoring. The applied analytical method is the retrospective epidemiological study type. Identified concentrations of chemical hazards below the limit values, but because exposure time is likely to jeopardize the health status of occupationally exposed population.

MicoRNA-425-5p is a potential prognostic biomarker for cervical cancer.

Background MicroRNAs have been implicated in many biological pathways involved in tumourigenesis and can serve as prognostic biomarkers in many cancer types. The present study aims at evaluating the prognostic significance of miR-425-5p in cervical cancer. Methods Real-time polymerase chain reaction was performed to assess the expression levels of miR-425-5p in 35 pairs of cervical cancer tissues and their matched normal tissues as well as serum samples from 40 cervical cancer patients, 13 benign cervical disease patients and 32 healthy controls. The association between miR-425-5p expression levels in tissue and serum, and clinicopathological factors was examined. The correlation between serum miR-425-5p expression levels and overall survival of cervical cancer patients was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards model. Results MiR-425-5p expression levels were significantly increased in cervical cancer tissues compared with matched non-cancerous tissues. Higher expression of miR-425-5p was positively associated with high tumour stage ( P = 0.0003) and positive lymph node metastasis ( P = 0.0107). Serum concentrations of miR-425-5p in cervical cancer patients were significantly higher compared with benign cervical disease and healthy controls. Moreover, the up-regulation of serum miR-425-5p occurred more frequently in cervical cancer patients with high TNM stage ( P = 0.0003) and positive lymph node metastasis ( P = 0.0037). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that high serum miR-425-5p expression levels predicted poor survival ( P = 0.0571). Cox proportional hazards risk analysis demonstrated that miR-425-5p was an independent prognostic factor for cervical cancer. Conclusion Our study suggests that miR-425-5p is up-regulated in cervical cancer and serum miR-425-5p may serve as a potential prognostic biomarker for cervical cancer.

Febuxostat is superior to traditional urate-lowering agents in reducing the progression of kidney function in chronic kidney disease patients

AbstractThe prevalence of hyperuricemia in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is high, but the management is suboptimal under traditional treatment. This study was conducted to clarify whether febuxostat achieves better renal survival and patient outcome compared with traditional urate-lowering agents (ULAs). In total, 2,460 adults who had continuously received ULAs for at least three months before enrollment were investigated. Three groups were compared prospectively including non-conversion (n = 2,214), conversion (n = 206), and febuxostat first (n = 40). We evaluated laboratory changes, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change, eGFR decline, renal survival, and all-cause mortality. The Cox proportional hazard risk analysis were also used for risk prediction. Multiple prescriptions for ULAs were found in both the non-conversion and conversion groups. However, improved median eGFR was noted in the febuxostat group (p < 0.001), median serum uric acid (SUA) level decreased from 9.45 to 6....

Poster ‐ 30: Use of a Hazard‐Risk Analysis for development of a new eye immobilization tool for treatment of choroidal melanoma

Purpose:Our treatment for choroidal melanoma utilizes the GTC frame. The patient looks at a small LED to stabilize target position. The LED is attached to a metal arm attached to the GTC frame. A camera on the arm allows therapists to monitor patient compliance. To move to mask‐based immobilization we need a new LED/camera attachment mechanism. We used a Hazard‐Risk Analysis (HRA) to guide the design of the new tool.Method:A pre‐clinical model was built with input from therapy and machine shop personnel. It consisted of an aluminum frame placed in aluminum guide posts attached to the couch top. Further development was guided by the Department of Defense Standard Practice ‐ System Safety hazard risk analysis technique.Results:An Orfit mask was selected because it allowed access to indexes on the couch top which assist with setup reproducibility. The first HRA table was created considering mechanical failure modes of the device. Discussions with operators and manufacturers identified other failure modes and solutions. HRA directed the design towards a safe clinical device.Conclusion:A new immobilization tool has been designed using hazard‐risk analysis which resulted in an easier‐to‐use and safer tool compared to the initial design. The remaining risks are all low probability events and not dissimilar from those currently faced with the GTC setup. Given the gains in ease of use for therapists and patients as well as the lower costs for the hospital, we will implement this new tool.

Risk stratification for major adverse cardiac events and ventricular tachyarrhythmias by cardiac MRI in patients with cardiac sarcoidosis

BackgroundThe presence of myocardial fibrosis by cardiac MRI has prognostic value in cardiac sarcoidosis, and localisation may be equally relevant to clinical outcomes.ObjectiveWe aimed to analyse cardiac damage and function...

Finding Hazard Factors by New Risks on Maritime Safety in Korea

The key features of maritime accidents are the change of their attributes by new risks from time to time. To prevent maritime accidents in Korea, the impacts by new risks on domestic safety environments should be identified or predicted. The purpose of this paper is to find the hazard factors by new risks on maritime safety in Korea. The meaning of new risks is the elements of accident hazard which is compiled from new or rare or unprecedented events in the worldwide maritime transportations. The problems of new risks are the lacks of optimum countermeasures to mitigate accident risks. Using the questionnaires with 152 event scenarios classified by 20 accident causes, the hazard identification and risk analysis of new risks was performed based on the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by IMO. A total of 22 Influence Diagrams, which is to depict the transit flows between accident causes to consequences, is used in the construction of 152 event scenarios. A total of 20 accidents causes is the same contents as the causation factors represented in Statistical Year Book for Maritime Accidents of Korean Maritime Safety Tribunals. After defining the evaluation equations to the response results of questionnaires by 46 experts, the work for risk analysis is carried out. As results from the analysis of 152 scenarios, it is known that the root cause to affect on maritime safety in Korea is the pressure of business competition and it led to the lacks of well experienced crews, the overload of vessel operations and crew’s fatigue. In addition, as results from the analysis of 20 accident causes, the three accident causes are to be candidate as main issues in Korea such as the inadequate preparedness of departure, the neglecting of watch keeping in bridge and the inadequate management of ship operations. All of the results are thought to be as basic hazard factors to safety impediments. It is thus found that the optimum Risk Control Options to remove the hazard factors and to mitigate consequences required are the following two factors: business competition and crewing problems.

MicroRNA-148b is a potential prognostic biomarker and predictor of response to radiotherapy in non-small-cell lung cancer.

miR-148b has been found to be aberrantly expressed in various tumor types. It has recently been reported to be involved in regulating radioresistance in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells. However, its expression level and association with radiosensitivity in human patient samples have not been investigated. Real-time PCR was used to evaluate the expression levels of miR-148b. Χ (2) test was performed to analyze the association between miR-148b expression levels and clinicopathological factors or radiosensitivity. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was constructed to estimate the overall survival (OS), and the differences in survival were compared using the log-rank test. Cox regression analysis was conducted to determine the prognostic value of miR-148b. The relative level of miR-148b was significantly decreased in NSCLC tissues compared with matched non-cancerous tissues (P < 0.0001), and it was higher in tissues of patients who are good responders compared to those who are poor responders to radiotherapy (P < 0.0001). Lower expression of miR-148b was positively associated with high tumor stage (P = 0.0407) and radioresistance (P = 0.0002), and it predicted poor survival in patients with (P = 0.0129) or without (P = 0.0094) radiotherapy treatment. miR-148b was an independent prognostic factor for NSCLC as demonstrated by Cox proportional hazards risk analysis. miR-148b may serve as a prognostic biomarker of poor survival and a novel predictor of response to radiotherapy treatment in NSCLC.

Investigation and Analysis of an Explosion in a Research Laboratory at a French University

The accident occurred on March 24th, 2006 at 0:24 pm in a research laboratory building of the National Institution of Higher Learning in Chemistry of Mulhouse (ENSCMu) at University of Haute Alsace (France). Due to a leak from a gas cylinder, a violent explosion of ethylene took place in the enclosed laboratory space and was followed by a fire. The accident killed one professor, seriously injured a young trainee and injured 20 persons. The initial blast of the Vapour Cloud Explosion and the fire that burned for about 5 hours caused several major damages within the laboratory and the surrounding. The corresponding facilities were destroyed. Fragments were hurled up to 100 m. The sound of the shock wave was heard 10 km away. The estimated cost of the accident was about 25 M(sic). The paper intends to summarize a detailed investigation report of the event. It points out the absence of hazard identification or risk analysis as a potential root cause factor, among others.

An interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis: a case study in the Fella River basin, Italy

Abstract. This paper presents a prototype of an interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis of natural hazards, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source geospatial software and technologies. The aim of the presented tool is to assist the experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, providing an essential input to the decision-making process in the selection of risk management strategies by responsible authorities and decision makers. This tool is based on the Boundless (OpenGeo Suite) framework and its client-side environment for prototype development, and it is one of the main modules of a web-based collaborative decision support platform in risk management. Within this platform, the users can import necessary maps and information to analyse areas at risk. Based on provided information and parameters, loss scenarios (amount of damages and number of fatalities) of a hazard event are generated on the fly and visualized interactively within the web-GIS interface of the platform. The annualized risk is calculated based on the combination of resultant loss scenarios with different return periods of the hazard event. The application of this developed prototype is demonstrated using a regional data set from one of the case study sites, Fella River of northeastern Italy, of the Marie Curie ITN CHANGES project.

Urban Rail Transit Risk Evaluation with Incomplete Information

In recent years, the urban rail transit risk analysis has been obtained great concerns from wide fields in the society. The hazards of urban rail transit evaluation play important role in the urban rail transit risk analysis. However, lacking of guarantee of the source and assurance of the evaluation information, so the characteristics of hazard can hardly be quantized or always be in the context of uncertainty. Under such environment, an improved DS/AHP method is provided in this study for the evaluation of hazard source. Firstly, the identification and evaluation of urban rail transit hazard sources are proposed according to different methods. Secondly, the evaluation system analysis is provided from three aspects--- frequency, extent of damage and uncontrolled. Thirdly, the improved DS/AHP method is employed for risk evaluation to determine the order of different hazard sources. At last, a numerical example is provided for the hazard risk analysis to verify the feasibility of the method.

Methods and Tools for Natural Hazard Risk Analysis in Eastern Canada: Using Knowledge to Understand Vulnerability and Implement Mitigation Measures

AbstractWhile Canada is exposed to a variety of natural hazards, most risk and emergency managers currently lack the necessary tools and guidance to adequately undertake rigorous risk assessments. Unlike the complex computer models for natural hazard risk assessment intended for use by a small number of technical experts, user-friendly rapid risk-assessment tools are being developed to allow nonexpert users from the public-safety community to run otherwise complex risk scenarios at a so-called press-of-a-button. This paper reports on the roles and responsibilities of different levels of government in Canada. Part of the ongoing activities carried out jointly by the government and academia in eastern Canada on the development of inventory and seismic and flood risk-analysis tools is discussed, and examples at urban scales for Ottawa, Gatineau, Quebec City, and Fredericton are given.

Hazard Assessment and Risk Analysis in Two Pork Slaughterhouses

The globalization of the food chain has lead nowadays to the increase of the risks related to the spreading of the food poisoning episodes which extend over the international bareers. Due to this fact, the risk analysis within each step of the production chain „from fork to farm” has become necessary. The specific aim of this study was to perform a risk analysis within two swine slaughtering units and to highlight the microbiological hazards taking into account the performed analyses. The technological steps which represent important risks for meat hygiene state and could jeoperdize the production were: the refrigeration step and the storage step. Within the small capacity slaughterhouse „B”, there was a severe operational deficiency noticed, this being the inacurate removal of the tonsils, which can lead to a high risk of microbial contamination. At the evaluation of the probability for the risk of occuring, in the big capacity slaughterhouse there was a low probability established (0-10%) compared to „B” unit where the probability was high (>80%), mainly due to the inaccurate removal of the tonsils. At the evaluation of risk exposure, with the help of representative scales, marked with colours according to the gravity, there was a high tolerence noticed in the case of „B” unit represented with the red colour. Following the way of communication and report making, both units were defficitary in establishing the alert mechanisms

Mountain hazards in the Tibetan Plateau: research status and prospects

The intense tectonic activities and complex geomorphology have made the Tibetan Plateau the highly potential area of mountain hazards, including glacial lake outburst, torrential floods, debris flows, landslides, and avalanches, especially caused by the coupling of avalanches, glacier movement, snow melting, and extreme precipitation (Fig. 1). Moreover, the disasters usually occur in chains and are amplified by cascaded processes, involving a variety of types of disasters in a long period and over a wide range of space. Therefore, it is significant to carry out quantitative study on the physical features, formation mechanism, dynamic process, transformation of disaster chain, and risk analysis of mega mountain hazards under climate change, and eventually to propose reasonable disaster mitigation measures to reduce risks from global climate change.

MiR-1290 is a potential prognostic biomarker in non-small cell lung cancer.

miR-1290 is a newly discovered microRNA (miRNA), and its role in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) remains unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the expression levels of miR-1290 in NSCLC tissues and serum, and explore its associations with clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of NSCLC patients. A total of 33 pairs of tissues and 73 serum samples were obtained from NSCLC patients and expression levels of miR-1290 were detected by specific TaqMan qRT-PCR. The relationship between miR-1290 expression levels in NSCLC tissues and serum and clinicopathological characteristics was estimated respectively. The correlation between serum miR-1290 expression levels and overall survival of NSCLC patients was performed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards model. We determined that miR-1290 expression levels were increased significantly in NSCLC tissues compared with non-tumor adjacent normal tissues, and higher miR-1290 expression levels were positively correlated with high tumor stage (P=0.004) and positive lymph node metastasis (P=0.013). Compared with benign lung disease and healthy controls, serum levels of NSCLC patients exhibited higher expression of miR-1290. Furthermore, the up-regulation of serum miR-1290 more frequently occurred in NSCLC patients with high TNM stage, positive lymph node metastasis (P=0.022 and P=0.024, respectively). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that high serum miR-1290 expression levels predicted poor survival (P=0.022). Cox proportional hazards risk analysis indicated that miR-1290 was an independent prognostic factor for NSCLC. Our study suggests that miR-1290 is overexpressed in NSCLC, and serum miR-1290 may be used as a potential prognostic biomarker for NSCLC.

PROCESS SAFETY MANAGEMENT LEARNING MODULE

An engineer’s paramount duty is to protect the welfare of the public. This duty includes ensuring that technical systems are designed and operated as safely as possible. This is achieved by minimizing the risk of injury or harm to people, property and the environment. Process Safety Management (PSM) is a framework for managing process risks associated with the storage, handling and manufacturing of hazardous substances, but the general principles are not industry-specific. The ultimate goal of PSM is to prevent the occurrence of major hazard incidents for the lifetime of the process, regardless of changes in personnel, organization, or environment. In PSM, a hazard incident is the unintended release of harmful substances or energy from equipment that is meant to contain it. PSM requires organizational commitment, and active participation of all stakeholders. PSM is based on process knowledge combined with systematic hazard identification and risk analysis. Risk is a measure of the probability and severity of a hazard incident. While risk is never zero, it can be minimized by taking measures to reduce the probability of occurrence, and to limit the severity of the consequences. Measures to reduce risk include inherently safer design, improving operating procedures, safer work practices, improving maintenance procedures and process documentation, improving management of change, and planning for responding to incidents. PSM systems undergo continuous improvement by incorporating lessons from hazard incidents, measuring and auditing performance, and generally learning from experience. Western University has developed a learning module on Process Safety Management to introduce engineering students to these important concepts. The module has been developed using PowerPoint, and is fully editable by instructors to suit specific learning objectives. The module includes numerous case studies to illustrate important PSM concepts, and a library of sample quiz questions is also included.

Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on combined areal source model: Monte Carlo approach and sensitivity analyses

We create and test a framework for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using Monte Carlo simulation, recently developed models of seismic source zones and modern ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE). A generalized seismic source model containing 43 zones has been compiled and seven GMPEs were selected. The assessment was performed on the basis of 100 synthetic seismic sub-catalogs with duration 10,000 years each. The hazard curves were calculated for the nodes of 0.25°×0.25° grid and the hazard maps were created in terms of PGA, PGV and seismic intensity for rock sites. Preliminary sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the importance of the input parameters and the level of uncertainty introduced by the parameters. The developed framework and the results of PSHA provide a benchmark for the comprehensive seismic hazard and seismic risk analysis and up-to-date seismic hazard maps for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.