Approach For Hazard Assessment Research Articles

Responsible innovation: Mitigating the food safety aspects of cultured meat production.

There is much interest in cultured (cultivated) meat as a potential solution to concerns over the ecological and environmental footprint of food production, especially from animal-derived food products. The aim of this critical review is to undertake a structured analysis of existing literature to (i) identify the range of materials that could be used within the cultured meat process; (ii) explore the potential biological and chemical food safety issues that arise; (iii) identify the known and also novel aspects of the food safety hazard portfolio that will inform hazard analysis and risk assessment approaches, and (iv) position a responsible innovation framework that can be utilized to mitigate food safety concerns with specific emphasis on cultured meat. Although a number of potential food safety hazards are identified that need to be considered within a food safety plan, further research is required to validate and verify that these food safety hazards have been suitably controlled and, where possible, eliminated. The responsible innovation framework developed herein, which extends beyond hazard analysis and traditional risk assessment approaches, can be applied in multiple contexts, including this use case of cultured meat production.

Macrophage polarization as a novel endpoint for assessing combined risk of phthalate esters

Combined exposure to phthalate esters (PAEs) has garnered increasing attention due to potential synergistic effects on human health. This study aimed to develop an in vitro model using human macrophages to evaluate the combined toxicity of PAEs and explore the underlying mechanisms. A high-throughput screening system was engineered by expressing a PPRE-eGFP reporter in THP-1 monocytes to monitor macrophage polarization upon PAEs exposure. Individual PAEs exhibited varied inhibitory effects on M2 macrophage polarization, with mono(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP) being the most potent. Isobologram analysis revealed additive interactions when MEHP was combined with other PAEs, resulting in more pronounced suppression of M2 markers compared to individual compounds. Mechanistic studies suggested PAEs may exert effects by modulating PPARγ activity to inhibit M2 polarization. Notably, an equimolar mixture of six PAEs showed additive inhibition of M2 markers. In vivo experiments corroborated the combined hepatotoxic effects, with mice exposed to a PAEs mixture exhibiting reduced liver weight, dyslipidemia, and decreased hepatic M2 macrophages compared to DEHP alone. Transcriptome analysis highlighted disruptions in PPAR signaling, and distinct pathway alterations on cholesterol metabolism in the mixture group. Collectively, these findings underscore the importance of evaluating mixture effects and provide a novel approach for hazard assessment of combined PAEs exposure with implications for environmental health risk assessment.

Predictive Geogenic Radon Potential (P-GRP): A novel approach for comprehensive hazard assessment and risk modeling in subsurface environment

Geogenic radon potential (GRP) is traditionally used for mapping radon-prone areas. However, this has challenges in the accurate assessment of radon risk because of limitations such as oversimplified soil measurements and lack of geological profiles. This study presents predictive geogenic radon potential (P-GRP), integrating geological characterization and advanced modeling for the emanation and transport of radon in the subsurface environment. Seoul, South Korea, was selected as the research area for the evaluation of hazards using P-GRP, while subway station A was selected for the assessment of indoor health risks. The geology was characterized by the layers of bedrock and soil using uranium contents and porosity. The emanation of radon was modeled considering the radioactive decay chain of uranium and the pore structures. The vertical transport of radon was modeled considering the porosity variation within geological media, which was used for the calculation of P-GRP. Without loss of continuity, the P-GRP map was constructed by calculating P-GRP at a specific depth over the Seoul area. The calculation of P-GRP in the case of subway station A demonstrates that the radon concentration in the bedrock at the platform depth was expected to be 382 million Bqm−3. The indoor radon risk was calculated using the P-GRP by coupling the vapor intrusion process. This presented a high cancer risk for the employees as well as commuters. The P-GRP map of Seoul demonstrated higher hazards in granite zones compared to banded gneiss zones. These results have demonstrated that the P-GRP could be a novel and promising approach for assessing hazard and risk by geogenic radon during subsurface development.

Temporal variability of sinkhole hazard illustrated in the western shore of the Dead Sea

AbstractThe growing economic and societal damage caused by sinkhole activity worldwide requires the development of scientifically sound sinkhole hazard assessment approaches. Currently, there is a striking paucity of quantitative sinkhole hazard studies largely related to the incompleteness of sinkhole inventories and the lack of chronological data. Moreover, the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (i.e., sinkhole hazard) is commonly considered as a steady variable, a concept that may lead to significant hazard over- or under-estimates. The extraordinarily high frequency of sinkhole occurrence of the studied sector of the western shore of the Dead Sea has allowed us to explore for the first time the potential temporal variability of sinkhole hazard parameters. Here, we produced six multi-temporal sinkhole inventories with morphometric data between 2005 and 2021 using remote-sensed imagery. The frequency-size relationships generated for successive time intervals with a total of 667 new sinkholes reveal substantial temporal changes in the sinkhole hazard components (i.e., frequency and size). Moreover, the work illustrates that spatial redundancy (sinkholes nested within or intersecting pre-existing ones) can lead to significant hazard overestimates if not considered, especially in areas with high sinkhole density and clustering. This work discusses the limitations of some widely used methods and concepts for sinkhole hazard assessment and illustrates the advantages of detailed multi-temporal mapping for assessing frequency-size relationships and their temporal trends.

Predisposing, triggering and runout processes at a permafrost‐affected rock avalanche site in the French Alps (Étache, June 2020)

AbstractAlthough numerous recent studies have explored the relationship between permafrost degradation and rock slope failure, there is still a need for in‐depth investigations to develop relevant hazard assessment approaches. We investigate the predisposing, triggering and propagation processes of a rock avalanche (c. 225,000 m3) that occurred in Vallon d'Étache (France) on 18 June 2020, whose scar was coated by ice and water. Weather records and energy balance models show that the rock avalanche occurred right after the warmest spring and winter since at least 1985, but also right after the spring with the highest water supply anomaly (snowmelt and rainfall). Measured ground surface temperature and geoelectrical surveys reveal that relatively ice‐rich permafrost could exist in the NW face (release area) while it is inexistent below the SE face, contradicting certain permafrost maps. Heat transfer simulations suggest that the rock avalanche occurred during a transition from cold to warm permafrost conditions at failure depth (30 m), with a temperature increase of up to 0.6°C per decade since 2012 (when considering potential snow cover effect), and current temperature ranging between −3 and −1°C, depending on the applied model forcing. This warming certainly contributed to predispose slope to failure. In addition, the shift towards warm permafrost and water infiltration potentially enhancing permafrost degradation along fractures through heat advection or favouring the development of high hydrostatic pressures may have played as triggering factors. Finally, propagation simulations show that the rock avalanche involved several phases with different rheological properties due to the incorporation of snow and material segregation within the deposit. These new insights at various scales highlight the complexity of the triggering and propagation processes of rock slope failure occurring in high mountains, a significant part of which can be linked to snow effects on ground temperature, water supply and rheological properties.

UAV based comprehensive modelling approach for flood hazard assessment and mitigation planning

The assessment of flood hazard in semi-arid region under the scare data situation is a challenging task under the changing climatic situation. Therefore, the present research is carry out for Rel river catchment, Gujrat, India as case study and presented the comprehensive approach to identify the possible flood extend and flood mitigation measures for better flood assessment. The UAV based high resolution (3.6 cm × 3.6 cm) DEM is generated for most flood vulnerable area (i.e. Dhanera city), whereas scare precipitation data under ungauged condition is generated using GEE and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) system. The HEC-HMS based hydrologic model is utilized for simulation of stream flow under the observed data, however, the 2D HEC-RAS based open-source model is used for flood assessment in 2D under extreme flood, dam break and levees condition. The flood decision making maps i.e water surface elevation, flood inundation, flood arrival time, and flood velocity are prepared for flood event 2017. The six flood hazard classes were selected from H1 (Low) to H6 (High) categories. The hazard maps of flood for different scenario i.e., 2D hydrodynamic analysis, 2D dam breach, 2D analysis with extended levees, and Dam break analysis with extended levees are derived. The model was validated with observed river gauge (water level) and discharge data at Dhanera City of flood 2017. The developed UAV based comprehensive modelling approach for flood hazard and mitigation planning provides the systematic approach for flood hazard assessment and would be adopted as a system framework for flood risk assessment for any similar case worldwide.

Development of new seismic hazard maps of the Philippines using the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment approach

Development of new seismic hazard maps of the Philippines using the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment approach

Spatial distribution of wildfire threat in the far north: exposure assessment in boreal communities

Increased wildfire activity has raised concerns among communities about how to assess and prepare for this threat. There is a need for wildfire hazard assessment approaches that capture local variability to inform decisions, produce results understood by the public, and are updatable in a timely manner. We modified an existing approach to assess decadal wildfire hazards based primarily on ember dispersal and wildfire proximity, referencing landscape changes from 1984 through 2014. Our modifications created a categorical flammability hazard scheme, rather than dichotomous, and integrated wildfire exposure results across spatial scales. We used remote sensed land cover from four historical decadal points to create flammability hazard and wildfire exposure maps for three arctic communities (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon). Within the Fairbanks study area, we compared 2014 flammability hazard, wildfire exposure, and FlamMap burn probabilities among burned (2014–2023) and unburned areas. Unlike burn probabilities, there were significantly higher in exposure values among burned and unburned locations (Wilcoxon; p < 0.001) and exposure rose as flammability hazard classes increased (Kruskal–Wallis; p < 0.001). Very high flammability hazard class supported 75% of burned areas and burns tended to occur in areas with 60% exposure or greater. Areas with high exposure values are more prone to burn and thus desirable for mitigation actions. By working with wildfire practitioners and communities, we created a tool that rapidly assesses wildfire hazards and is easily modified to help identify and prioritize mitigation activities.

Alternatives assessment: An analysis on progress and future needs for research and practice.

Alternatives assessment is a science-policy approach to support the informed substitution of chemicals of concern in consumer products and industries, with the intent of avoiding regrettable substitution and facilitating the transition to safer, more sustainable chemicals and products. The field of alternatives assessment has grown steadily in recent decades, particularly after the publication of specific frameworks and the inclusion of substitution and alternatives assessment requirements in a number of policy contexts. Previously, 14 research and practice needs for the field were outlined across five critical areas: comparative hazard assessment, comparative exposure characterization, lifecycle considerations, decision-making and decision analysis, and professional practice. The aim of the current article is twofold: to highlight methodological advances in the growing field of alternatives assessment based on identified research and practice needs and to propose areas for future developments. We assess advances in the field based on the analysis of a broad literature review that captured 154 sources published from 2013 to 2022. The results indicate that research conducted advanced many of the needs identified, but several remain underaddressed. Although the field has clearly grown and taken root over the past decade, there are still research and practice gaps, most notably on the hazard assessment of mixtures or different forms of chemicals, the integration of lifecycle considerations, and the development of practical approaches to address trade-offs in decision-making. We propose modifications to four of the prior research and practice needs in addition to new needs, including the development of standardized hazard assessment approaches for chemical mixtures as well as better integration of equity and/or justice considerations into assessments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-18. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Enabling novel paradigms: a biological questions-based approach to human chemical hazard and drug safety assessment.

Throughput needs, costs of time and resources, and concerns about the use of animals in hazard and safety assessment studies are fueling a growing interest in adopting new approach methodologies for use in product development and risk assessment. However, current efforts to define "next-generation risk assessment" vary considerably across commercial and regulatory sectors, and an a priori definition of the biological scope of data needed to assess hazards is generally lacking. We propose that the absence of clearly defined questions that can be answered during hazard assessment is the primary barrier to the generation of a paradigm flexible enough to be used across varying product development and approval decision contexts. Herein, we propose a biological questions-based approach (BQBA) for hazard and safety assessment to facilitate fit-for-purpose method selection and more efficient evidence-based decision-making. The key pillars of this novel approach are bioavailability, bioactivity, adversity, and susceptibility. This BQBA is compared with current hazard approaches and is applied in scenarios of varying pathobiological understanding and/or regulatory testing requirements. To further define the paradigm and key questions that allow better prediction and characterization of human health hazard, a multidisciplinary collaboration among stakeholder groups should be initiated.

Morpho-Hydrological Analysis and Preliminary Flash Flood Hazard Mapping of Neom City, Northwestern Saudi Arabia, Using Geospatial Techniques

Neom city is a unique cross-border city connecting Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt. Although Neom city is of great and critical importance for Saudi Arabia, few hydrological, natural hazard, and geomorphological studies have been undertaken on this region. This work aims to investigate the hydro-geomorphological characteristics and assess the flash flood hazards in Neom city by investigating several valuable morphometric parameters. The Shutter Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model and hydrological and geological data were analyzed in this study using ArcGIS software. Based on the morphometric parameter results, total stream lengths and stream orders were relatively high (17,956.03 km and 5, respectively), whereas the average bifurcation ratio was recorded to be low at 3.54. Basins 10, 12, 17, 30, 31, 32, and 34 were described as large basins, coarse-textured, elongated, with a medium drainage density, low infiltration values, long overland flows, and high values of constant maintenance. Additionally, the El-Shamy approach for flood hazard assessment was applied side by side with the morphometric analysis, which indicated that the possibility of an intense flood hazard is very low. In general, this study suggests that most of the studied basins cover similar and resistant rocks and soils. They have minimal conditions for flooding events and suitable conditions for underground and surface water resources. Therefore, they display high signals of susceptibility to erosion. The morphometric analysis and flash flood assessment techniques applied in this study were time- and cost-effective for the morphometric characterization of landforms. This text deals with the analysis of several environmental characteristics including hydro-morphological characteristics, drainage topography and lithology, soil erosion, groundwater recharge impact, and flash flood signals. Excellent sustainability plans should be reliant on extensive and varied information about the environment. Thus, integrated analyses incorporating environmental characteristics and flood hazard assessment play an important role in adjusting and adapting the suitable socioeconomic and scientific sustainability of the development of the study city. They build up the basic and essential information required to help decision-makers and sustainability managers design and adjust the most suitable sustainability plans for the study city over the long term.

Unravelling Karachi’s Seismic Potential: Estimating Maximum Ground Shaking in Various Zones

Karachi, a sprawling city spanning over 3500[Formula: see text]sq. km, exhibits significant variability in seismic hazard across its expanse. This study employs a deterministic approach for seismic hazard assessment due to the unavailability of a long-term seismic archive required for a probabilistic approach, given the city’s relatively young age. Furthermore, a novel methodology is employed in this study, utilizing all known faults within Karachi’s seismic vicinity for conducting Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA). Individual hazards associated with each seismic source are estimated, enabling the determination of the most severe hazard for the development of a seismic zoning map. The resulting DSHA-based seismic hazard assessment categorizes Karachi into four seismic zones, ranging from Zone 2A to Zone 4. This paper concludes that for a vast city like Karachi, relying solely on a single fault source for DSHA does not accurately represent the realistic seismic hazard to the region.

A feasible heat release rate estimation approach for fire hazard assessment in green design

New energy harvesting systems in buildings are becoming more attractive in new green buildings. However, the potential fire hazard of the combustible items used in new green building limits their wider application. Fire behaviour of combustible items in new green designs should be studied carefully. Heat release rate of burning combustible items of different materials is important in fire hazard assessment and can be estimated by oxygen consumption calorimetry. An exhaust hood with a fan-duct system was built to collect flue gas. As the burning was likely to be incomplete in building fires, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, water vapor and soot would be emitted. Heat release rates of combustible items were estimated by measuring the transient amount of oxygen, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide collected by the hood. Based on mass balancing, there are at least three equations in terms of mass flow rates of oxygen, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide in the incoming air and exhaust gas. There are always questions about using which equations because measuring gases in full-scale burning tests is difficult and expensive. These three equations are introduced and compared in this paper. Heat release rates of four selected combustible items were studied as an example case. Accuracy of the results based on the measured oxygen concentration only was similar to the values provided by commercial software. Results from the experimental data are useful in further full-scale burning tests on combustible items in energy harvest systems planning at the moment.

The diversity of volcanic hazard maps around the world: insights from map makers

The IAVCEI Working Group on Hazard Mapping has been active since 2014 and has facilitated several activities to enable sharing of experiences of how volcanic hazard maps are developed and used around the world. One key activity was a global survey of 90 map makers and practitioners to collect data about official, published volcanic hazard maps and how they were developed. The survey asked questions about map content, design, and input data, as well as about the map development process and key lessons learned. Here we present the results of this global survey, which are then used to quantitatively describe and summarise current practices in volcanic hazard map development.We received entries related to 89 volcanic hazard maps (78% long-term/background maps and 22% short-term/crisis hazard maps), covering a total of 80 volcanoes across 28 countries. Although most maps captured in the survey are volcano-scale maps of stratovolcanoes that show similar types of content, such as primary hazard footprints or zones, they vary greatly in input data, communication style, format, appearance, scale, content, and visual design. This diversity stems from a range of factors, including differences in map purpose, the methodology used, the level of understanding of past eruptive history, the prevailing scientific and cartographic practice at the time, the state of volcanic activity, and variations in culture, national map standards and legal requirements.Experiences and lessons shared by our respondents can be divided into six main themes: map design considerations; the process of map development; map audience and map user needs; hazard assessment approach; map availability and accessibility; and external (e.g., political) influences. Insights shared included the importance of: visual design elements, map testing and evaluation, working with stakeholders and end users to improve a map’s efficacy and relevance, and considering possible unanticipated uses of hazard maps. These free-form text insights (i.e., responses to open-ended questions) from map makers and practitioners familiar with the maps lend depth and clarity to our results. They provide a rich complement to our more quantitative analysis of design elements and of approaches used to determine and delineate map zones.Results from our global survey of hazard map makers and practitioners, together with insights from other key initiatives of the Working Group on Hazard Mapping such as the Volcanic Hazard Maps Database (VHMD; https://volcanichazardmaps.org/), provide a snapshot of the wide variety of volcanic hazard maps generated over the past decades, and improve our understanding of the diversity across volcanic hazard mapping practices. These initiatives represent important steps towards fulfilling the aims of the Working Group, namely, to construct a framework for a classification scheme for volcanic hazard maps and to promote harmonized terminology, as well as to identify and categorise good practices and considerations for volcanic hazard mapping.

S02-04: Read-across case studies to implement new approaches for hazard assessment

S02-04: Read-across case studies to implement new approaches for hazard assessment

A novel approach for flood hazard assessment using hybridized ensemble models and feature selection algorithms

Identifying flood-prone regions is critical for effective management of flood hazards as floods are among the most devastating natural disasters globally. However, accurate modeling and prediction of floods are challenging due to their complexity. The current research has proposed a novel approach for Flood Hazard (FH) prediction using hybrid Machine Learning (ML) models that integrate ensemble ML models with several Feature Selection (FS) algorithms. An optimum set of Flood Influential Factors (FIFs) was determined using the Simulated Annealing (SA) and Information Gain (IG) FS algorithms. The ensemble ML models employed include AdaboostM1 (ABM), Boosted Generalized Linear Model (BGLM), and Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) algorithms. In addition, the hyper-parameters of the hybrid models were optimized using the random search (RS) method and repeated cross-validation technique. The proposed hybrid models were trained using flood inventory map and FIFs obtained from a spatial database. The results verified that the SA and IG algorithms detect 9 and 13 factors as FIFs in the FH assessment, respectively. Moreover, rainfall, distance to river, altitude, and lithology FIFs have a greater impact than the other factors in the Sardabroud watershed, Mazandaran Province, Iran. Several robust indicators, such as the area under curve (AUC) in relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves and statistical measurements, were employed to assess the robustness of hybrid models. SA-ABM model had the highest AUC value (0.983), while IG-ABM, SA-BGLM, SA-SGB, IG-BGLM, and IG-SGB had lower values (0.952 to 0.973). Finally, the SA-ABM hybrid model classified 27% of the study area as having a high hazard of floods.

An integrated geospatial and statistical approach for flood hazard assessment

An integrated geospatial and statistical approach for flood hazard assessment

A Logic-Tree Approach for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Administrative Region of Attica (Greece)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) was carried out for the administrative region of Attica (Greece). Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) values were calculated for return periods of 475 and 950 years for five sub-areas covering the entire region. PGA hazard curves and Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) in terms of spectral acceleration (Sa) values were generated for Athens, Methana, and the capitals of each island of Attica (Salamina, Aegina, Poros, Hydra, Spetses, Kythira, and Antikythira). Area sources were adopted from the Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13) and its update, ESHM20, taking into account both crustal and slab tectonic environments. Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) proposed for the Greek territory were ranked for PGA and PGV. Each GMPE was reconstructed as a weighted model, accounting for normal and non-normal focal mechanisms for each area source. PGA, PGV, and Sa values were computed using a logic tree, integrating the seismotectonic models as major branches and sub-logic trees, comprised of multiple ranked GMPEs for each area source, as minor branches. The results showed higher seismic hazard values in sub-areas near the Gulf of Corinth and the slab interface, which could indicate a need to revise the active building code in Attica.

A Probabilistic Approach for Off-Stream Reservoir Failure Flood Hazard Assessment

Off-stream reservoirs are hydraulic structures that might cause severe flood damages in case of failure or improper operation. Their safety regulations usually require hydraulic studies for flood hazard and inundation zone mapping. The selection of the break point is not trivial because the topography in its surroundings is commonly highly anthropic. A wrong selection would not provide the worst scenario in terms of maximum flood hazard extent. This work presents a probabilistic approach based on a stochastic definition of the break point along the dyke. A number of failure scenarios are generated automatically, corresponding to different breach formations. Then, an in-cascade calculation process simulates each scenario, providing a framework to carry out statistical analysis. The simulation of the breach formation and the flood wave propagation is performed through a GPU parallelised two-dimensional hydraulic numerical model, which provides a probabilistic inundation zone and flood hazard mapping of all scenarios simulated in a suitable timeframe.

Collision hazard modeling and analysis in a multi-mobile robots system transportation task with STPA and SPN

This paper investigates the ability to use complex multi-mobile robotic systems in risky and dynamic environments, such as industrial plants and laboratories, with the presence of the human factor. More specifically, it presents an approach to analyze the dominant risk, extract, model and quantify the hazard scenarios, then propose requirements using the combination between two methods: System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and Stochastic Petri Nets (SPN). This approach is demonstrated with a case study related to a chemical transportation task within a miniature analysis laboratory in oil and gas industry. The main purposes of this article are: to investigate how the risk and safety of these systems should be managed, to create a framework for modeling collision hazard scenarios, further a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to quantify the collision frequency and unavailability. In addition, to generate the required constraints and requirements in order to improve the safe operation of robots within the laboratory. The novel contribution of this study is to provide a hazard assessment approach suited to multi-controller and autonomous systems while considering coordination between controllers. Hence, the current study proposes a set of safety requirements, which allow designers and programmers to improve autonomy features in mobile robots. The STPA-SPN combination offers better modeling and assessment of robot's performance as well as their hazard frequency.