Hawke's Bay Research Articles

The drinking water crises of Flint and Havelock North: a failure of public health risk management

Between 2014 and 2016, there were two severe community water system (CWS) failures in Flint, Michigan (MI), USA and Havelock North, Hawkes Bay, New Zealand. These events had profound implications for public health in their respective countries. While the nature of both crises was different, certain aspects of the failings were strikingly similar. These included: failure of authorities to protect the integrity of their source water, 'wait-and-see approach' to address problems if and when they occurred, negligent approach to regulatory oversight and responsibility, substandard facilities and lack of knowledge and training of staff, failure of consultants and advisory services engaged by suppliers, and failure of government agencies to enforce regulations. The lessons from both incidents must be learned, or similar tragic events are likely to reoccur. The six principles identified in the Government Inquiry into the Havelock North outbreak are an essential first step. The next step is to implement them throughout the drinking water sector.

Late Paleocene CO<sub>2</sub> drawdown, climatic cooling and terrestrial denudation in the southwest Pacific

Abstract. ​​​​​​​Late Paleocene deposition of an organic-rich sedimentary facies on the continental shelf and slope of New Zealand and eastern Australia has been linked to short-lived climatic cooling and terrestrial denudation following sea level fall. Recent studies confirm that the organic matter in this facies, termed “Waipawa organofacies”, is primarily of terrestrial origin, with a minor marine component. It is also unusually enriched in 13C. In this study we address the cause of this enrichment. For Waipawa organofacies and its bounding facies in the Taylor White section, Hawke's Bay, paired palynofacies and carbon isotope analysis of heavy liquid-separated density fractions indicate that the heaviest δ13C values are associated with degraded phytoclasts (woody plant matter) and that the 13C enrichment may be partly due to lignin degradation. Compound-specific stable carbon isotope analyses of samples from the Taylor White and mid-Waipara (Canterbury) sections display similar trends and further reveal a residual 13C enrichment of ∼ 2.5 ‰ in higher plant biomarkers (long chain n-alkanes and fatty acids) and a ∼ 2 ‰–5 ‰ change in subordinate marine biomarkers. Using the relationship between atmospheric CO2 and C3 plant tissue δ13C values, we determine that the 3 ‰ increase in terrestrial δ13C may represent a ∼ 35 % decrease in atmospheric CO2. Refined age control for Waipawa organofacies indicates that deposition occurred between 59.2 and 58.5 Ma, which coincides with an interval of carbonate dissolution in the deep sea that is associated with a Paleocene oxygen isotope maximum (POIM, 59.7–58.1 Ma) and the onset of the Paleocene carbon isotope maximum (PCIM, 59.3–57.4 Ma). This association suggests that Waipawa deposition occurred during a time of cool climatic conditions and increased carbon burial. This relationship is further supported by published TEX86-based sea surface temperatures that indicate a pronounced regional cooling during deposition. We suggest that reduced greenhouse gas emissions from volcanism and accelerated carbon burial, due to tectonic factors, resulted in short-lived global cooling, growth of ephemeral ice sheets and a global fall in sea level. Accompanying erosion and carbonate dissolution in deep-sea sediment archives may have hidden the evidence of this “hypothermal” event until now.

Linking proximal ignimbrites and coeval distal tephra deposits to establish a record of voluminous Early Quaternary (2.4–1.9 Ma) volcanism of the Tauranga Volcanic Centre, New Zealand

The Tauranga Volcanic Centre (TgaVC) of the North Island, New Zealand, was active from 2.95 to 1.9 Ma. It lies temporally and spatially between the currently active Taupō Volcanic Zone, one of the most productive regions of Quaternary silicic volcanism globally, and its predecessor, the Coromandel Volcanic Zone. This study provides an enhanced chronology for pyroclastic volcanism of the TgaVC with four locally widespread units named and defined as follows: Welcome Bay and Wharo ignimbrites (together formerly known as Lower Pāpāmoa Ignimbrite); Otawera Ignimbrite; and Arateka Ignimbrite (formerly known as Upper Pāpāmoa Ignimbrite). These eruptives were followed by the eruption of the large-volume Waiteariki Ignimbrite at 2.1 Ma. In northern Hawke's Bay (150–170 km southeast of TgaVC), several distal tephra-fall horizons and an ignimbrite (Hikuroa Pumice Member) are preserved in marine-hosted sediments that are stratigraphically equivalent to the five ignimbrites of the TgaVC. Using new major- and trace-element data on glass in conjunction with new zircon-derived U-Pb ages, a correlation between the Hawke's Bay tephras and the TgaVC ignimbrites is established and the Hikuroa Pumice Member is confirmed as the distal deposit of the Waiteariki Ignimbrite. The integrated proximal and distal records show that at least eight eruptions occurred in the TgaVC between 2.4 and 1.9 Ma and provide a maximum repose period between explosive eruptions of ca. 50 kyrs.

Inter-provenance variation in seed germination response of a cash crop halophyte Suaeda fruticosa to different abiotic factors

Information about provenance-based differences in seed attributes of potential cash crop halophytes is limited but important to define sources for the highest quality seeds. This study examined inter- provenance variations in seed morphology, germination, and tolerance responses of Suaeda fruticosa to common abiotic factors. Seed size varied significantly among provenances, and the largest sized seeds were developed in the highly moist moderately-saline coastal area of Manora. Seed germination responses also varied among provenances and seeds from highly moist provenance of Manora showed the highest germination in 400 mM NaCl in light under low to moderate temperature regimes. The light requirement for germination was lowest in the seeds from highly saline provenance of Gaddani. The highest germination recovery of un-germinated seeds from the high salinity (600 mM NaCl) was for seeds from dry provenance of Bahawalpur irrespective of temperature regime. Recovery for seeds from the (moderately) moist (highly) saline provenances of Gaddani and Hawke's Bay was highly temperature-dependent. However, recovery of dark-incubated un-germinated seeds after transfer to light was salinity-dependent, but not dependent on provenance. Thus, these data indicate that provenance can affect the size, germinability, and stress tolerance of S. fruticosa seeds. Generally, seeds from less stressful provenance of Manora had better quality, i.e., larger size, higher germination, and qualify for mass-scale cultivation / restoration programs under most environmental conditions.

The associations between mental health and environmental factors in New Zealand: A region-based analytical study

INTRODUCTION: Connections between environmental factors and mental health issues have been postulated in many different countries around the world. Previously undertaken research has shown many possible connections between these fields, especially in relation to air quality and extreme weather events. However, research on this subject is lacking in New Zealand, which is difficult to analyse as an overall nation due to its many micro-climates and regional differences.OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study and subsequent analysis is to explore the associations between environmental factors and poor mental health outcomes in New Zealand by region and predict the number of people with mental health-related illnesses corresponding to the environmental influence.METHODS: Data are collected from various public-available sources, e.g., Stats NZ and Coronial services of New Zealand, which comprised four environmental factors of our interest and two mental health indicators data ranging from 2016 up until 2020. The four environmental factors are air pollution, earthquakes, rainfall and temperature. Two mental health indicators include the number of people seen by District Health Boards (DHBs) for mental health reasons and the statistics on suicide deaths. The initial analysis is carried out on which regions were most affected by the chosen environmental factors. Further analysis using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) creates a model based on time series of environmental data to generate estimation for the next two years and mental health projected from the ridge regression.RESULTS: In our initial analysis, the environmental data was graphed along with mental health outcomes in regional charts to identify possible associations. Different regions of New Zealand demonstrate quite different relationships between the environmental data and mental health outcomes. The result of later analysis predicts that the suicide rate and DHB mental health visits may increase in Wellington, drop-in Hawke's Bay and slightly increase in Canterbury for the year 2021 and 2022 with different environmental factors considered.CONCLUSION: It is evident that the relationship between environmental and mental health factors is regional and not national due to the many micro-climates that exist around the nation. However, it was observed that not all factors displayed a good relationship between the regions. We conclude that our hypotheses were partially correct, in that increased air pollution was found to correlate to increased mental health-related DHB visits. Rainfall was also highly correlated to some mental health outcomes. Higher levels of rainfall reduced DHB visits and suicide rates in some areas of the country.

Spatial Variation of Shallow Stress Orientation Along the Hikurangi Subduction Margin: Insights From In‐Situ Borehole Image Logging

AbstractKnowledge of the contemporary in‐situ stress orientations in the Earth's crust can improve our understanding of active crustal deformation, geodynamic processes, and seismicity in tectonically active regions such as the Hikurangi Subduction Margin (HSM), New Zealand. The HSM subduction interface is characterized by varying slip behavior along strike, which may be a manifestation of combined variations in both stress state and the mechanical properties of faults and their hanging walls. Alternatively, these variations in subduction thrust slip behavior may drive heterogeneity in the stress state in space and time. In this study, we analyze borehole image and oriented four‐arm caliper logs acquired from 13 boreholes along the HSM to present a comprehensive stress orientation data set from borehole data within the shallow (<3 km) upper plate of the subduction thrust. Our results reveal a 065°/245° SHmax orientation within the central HSM (Hawke's Bay region) which rotates to 112°/292° and 140°/320° in the southern HSM. This rotation of SHmax orientation correlates spatially with along‐strike variations in subduction interface slip behavior, characterized by creep and/or shallow episodic slip events in the central HSM and interseismic locking in the south. The borehole SHmax orientations suggest that contemporary stress orientations may be caused in part by along‐strike variation in deformation style imposed by clockwise rotation of forearc. In the southern HSM, borehole‐derived SHmax orientations are inconsistent with SHmax orientations derived from focal mechanism solutions in the subducting plate, implying some degree of mechanical decoupling between the shallow hanging wall and subducting slab.

Climate change and New Zealand’s groundwater resources: A methodology to support adaptation

Study regionHawke’s Bay and Otago regions, North and South Islands, New Zealand (NZ). Study focusEvidence that climate change affects groundwater is emerging, but a complete understanding of the processes and impacts on the resources remains limited in most countries, including NZ. This paper presents a methodology to explore the potential effects of climate change on groundwater for an envelope of future climate scenarios (i.e., low and high greenhouse gas emissions; mid- and end-century). The methodology uses national and sub-national datasets and models and is applied to two case studies (Hawke’s Bay and Otago). Its structure allows for future implementation in other NZ regions. New hydrological insights for the regionResults are provided as projected changes in precipitation minus evapotranspiration, rainfall recharge to groundwater (RR) and water table elevation. General water quantity reductions are projected for Hawke's Bay (e.g., RR reduced by up to −1.5 mm/d), and more limited and variable changes for Otago (e.g., RR varying between +/- 0.4 mm/d).We then present a discussion about furthering the science of climate change effects on groundwater, characterisation of climate change uncertainty and unique effects, and adaptation in the NZ context. We anticipate that our results, despite limitations and uncertainty, can enable adaptation actions without delay. We recommend integrated and adaptive approaches, including action effectiveness monitoring and community engagement, to develop resilience to climate change threats.

Quaternary marine tephrochronology of Rock Garden accretionary ridge, Hikurangi Subduction Margin, New Zealand

The Taupō Volcanic Zone (TVZ) of the North Island, New Zealand (NZ), is one of the most active Quaternary rhyolitic systems globally, producing voluminous eruptions and associated tephra that punctuate the NZ stratigraphic record. Due to dominantly westerly winds tephras are well preserved in the marine sedimentary record off NZ's east coast and provide important isochrons for chronostratigraphic correlation of marine sediment cores. Two MeBo200 (Bremen seafloor drill rig) sediment cores (GeoB20824–4 and GeoB20846–1) were collected from Rock Garden (RG) offshore of Hawke Bay in water depths of 610–670 metres below sea level (mbsl) with 24 tephra beds (both primary and secondary) that provide a well-dated proximal marine record of TVZ volcanism. The tephra layers are dated by a combination of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C of the underlying biogenic carbonates, secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), and correlation of onshore deposits using geochemical fingerprinting. Here we present SIMS U-Pb dating of 189 zircons extracted from five tephra layers from core GeoB20824–4 and six from core GeoB20846–1. AMS radiocarbon ages were carried out on sediments at three depths in core GeoB20824–4 and two depths in core GeoB20846–1, all within the upper 4 metre below seafloor (mbsf). We present major element data for 11 tephra deposits from core GeoB20824–4 and 13 from core GeoB20846–1 analysed by electron microprobe (748 analyses). We identify 10 significant Quaternary tephra horizons including: Kawakawa/Oruanui, Onepuhi (or Rangitawa), Kaukatea, Kidnappers-B, Potaka/Kidnappers, Rewa, and Sub-Rewa. Three tephra layers are geochemically correlated to unnamed but previously recognized tephra from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) cores further east of RG. In addition to these previously identified tephra, several tephra layers are present in both MeBo200 cores that have not been recognized in existing published on- or offshore records. We attribute the finding of these new tephra deposits to the proximal location of the cores to the source location (unlike existing ODP records), the expanded stratigraphic record at these proximal locations afforded by the new coring technique applied here, and the potentially poor preservation of equivalent deposits in the terrestrial record. The identification of Quaternary TVZ tephras within MeBo200 cores, and their correlation to on- and offshore records is a significant advance as it provides: (1) a tool for correlation of marine sediment cores at the tectonostratigraphically important RG site, (2) a more detailed history of the TVZ from a proximal marine tephra record, (3) a well-dated tephra bed record from marine sediment cores with radiocarbon ages for younger ( ≤45 kyr), and U-Pb zircon ages for older (up to 1.3 Myr) tephra beds, and (4) a first approximation to the regional tephra distribution of key tephra beds

Increasing Uptake of Maternal Pertussis Vaccinations through Funded Administration in Community Pharmacies.

Although maternal pertussis vaccination is recommended, uptake is suboptimal in New Zealand (NZ), despite full funding in general practice and hospitals. We determined whether funding maternal pertussis vaccination in community pharmacy increases its uptake. Pertussis vaccination during pregnancy was compared between non-contiguous, demographically similar regions of NZ. The pertussis vaccine was funded at pharmacies from Nov 2016 in one NZ region (Waikato), but not in comparator regions (Northland, Hawkes Bay). Vaccinations during pregnancy were determined from the National Immunisation Register, general practice and pharmacy claims data, and a maternity database. Comparisons were made using adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for Nov 2015 to Oct 2016 versus Nov 2016 to Oct 2019. The odds of pregnancy pertussis vaccination increased in the post-intervention versus pre-intervention period with this increase being larger (p = 0.0014) in the intervention (35% versus 21%, OR = 2.07, 95% CI 1.89–2.27) versus the control regions (38% versus 26%, OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.52–1.84). Coverage was lower for Māori versus non-Māori, but increased more for Māori in the intervention versus control regions (117% versus 38% increase). It was found that funding maternal pertussis vaccination in pharmacy increases uptake, particularly for Māori women. Measures to increase coverage should include reducing barriers to vaccines being offered by non-traditional providers, including pharmacies.

A fight for legitimacy: reflections on child protection reform, the reduction of baby removals, and child protection decision-making in Aotearoa New Zealand

ABSTRACT The rate of orders used to remove babies into the care of Oranga Tamariki reduced by more than half in Aotearoa New Zealand in 2019–2020 as a result of rapid reform, prompted by a high profile media case known as the ‘Hawkes Bay case’. This case provoked social outrage, leading to media and public approbation, inquiries by state and Māori bodies, and advocacy from multiple organisations. Combined, these challenged the legitimacy of the child protection system and led to ‘legitimacy work’, that is, attempts by Oranga Tamariki to regain legitimacy with multiple publics. Access to the legal orders used to remove babies was immediately constricted. A sharp decline in baby removals followed, both overall and the disparities between Māori and non-Māori. The focus on disparity indicators alone, skewed by a focus on public legitimacy, had several unintended consequences. These included a lag between the constrictions on orders and other reforms aimed at addressing the inequities causing disparities, the diminishment of social worker discretion, and limited attention to other forms of system accountability. In the absence of other outcome indicators, particularly those defined by Māori and system-involved families, it is difficult to draw conclusions regarding the efficacy of these changes.

Participatory GIS Approach to Assessing Building Vulnerability to Tsunamis in Pangandaran Regency

Some cities in Indonesia which are located on Southern Java Island are susceptible to tsunamis. However, the application of participatory GIS for the assessment of building vulnerability to tsunamis remains rarely evaluated. The aims of this research are 1) to obtain the parameters of building vulnerability to tsunamis using the participatory approach, and 2) to evaluate the results of building vulnerability assessment using participatory GIS. A tsunami inundation map was constructed based on numerical modelling using the Hawke's Bay equation. Participatory approaches were taken to establish the parameters that affect the vulnerability of buildings to tsunamis using in-depth interviews. Respondents were selected using the purposive sampling technique. A geographic information system (GIS) was then applied to build a geodatabase and to perform analysis. The results show that six parameters were obtained from local people’s participation, namely building materials, the number of stories of the buildings , orientation, preservation condition, building row, and natural barriers. All the parameters were identified and interpreted using aerial photos. A field survey was conducted to complete the information on building characteristics. Many buildings near the beach were classified as having high and moderate vulnerability. The main benefit of participatory GIS is that the role of the community makes a significant contribution to providing vulnerability information. It also raises public awareness and improves preparedness for disaster risk management. The drawback is that parameters based on participatory approaches are dynamic and may be different in other areas.

Combining Cognitive Mapping and indigenous knowledge to improve food environments in regional New Zealand.

Issue addressedHawke's Bay has one of the highest rates of childhood obesity in New Zealand. While several initiatives exist aiming to decrease obesity through physical activity, there are few nutritional interventions. This study adopted a systems science and mātauranga Māori approach to identify and target underlying drivers of rising childhood obesity and engage the community to improve the food environment.MethodsCognitive mapping interviews (CM) with local stakeholders (school principals, Iwi and district health board representatives, education managers and local councillors) were conducted. The aim was to map participants’ mental models of the causes of rising childhood obesity and to identify key principles for engaging with the local community in a meaningful, impactful and culturally appropriate way for future action.ResultsEleven interviews were conducted face‐to‐face and cognitive maps were constructed. Follow‐up interviews were carried out online, due to COVID restrictions, to present the maps and for interviewees to make any adjustments. Four composite themes emerged through centrality and cluster analysis of the resulting cognitive maps: the importance of building in mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge and ways of being), the “hauora” of children, working with the community and integrating existing initiatives. Two contextual factors are also considered: the growing need for food security in our communities and the opportunity to start interventions in the school setting.ConclusionCognitive mapping can produce useful insights in the early stages of community engagement. The six “pou” (pillars) underscore the importance of incorporating indigenous knowledge when embarking on public health interventions, particularly around obesity and in regional communities.So what?When designing a public health initiative with a community with a high indigenous population, indigenous knowledge should be promoted to focus on holistic health, working with the community and creating opportunities for cohesion. These founding principles will be used to structure future community actions to improve children's food environments in regional New Zealand.

Trace element variations across Middle–Upper Cambrian carbonates: Implications for the paleoenvironment of eastern Laurentia

The investigated Middle–Upper Cambrian carbonates span, from bottom to top, the uppermost Hawke Bay (40 m), the March Point (∼83 m thick), and the lowermost Petit Jardin (∼47 m) formations of the Port au Port Group (western Newfoundland, Canada). A multi-technique evaluation of the preservation of carbonates was applied by using several petrographic and chemical screening tools. The variations in several proxies of bioproductivity (e.g., P, Ni, and Cu), input of weathering products (Mn, Fe, Al, and ∑REE), and paleoredox (e.g., Th/U) have been utilized to study the paleoenvironmental conditions during the investigated time interval. Distinct positive shifts in the profiles of Al, ∑REE, Mn, and Fe have been associated with the negative shifts recorded by the δ13C profile and correlated with the DICE (Middle Cambrian) and base of the SPICE (lowermost Upper Cambrian) events. They reflect contributions from detrital weathered material during sealevel falls. Similar correlated positive shifts are also documented by the P, Ni, and Cu profiles, thus suggesting an increase in the riverine inputs of nutrients associated with the drop of sealevel and increase of weathering activities. In addition, the changes in the bioproductivity and weathering proxies were associated with relative rising in the Th/U ratios (0.1–8.3), which reflects variations in the redox state towards relatively more oxidizing conditions.

A local focus: Implementing policies for land-use change in the Wairoa District

This paper explores community attitudes to policies designed to promote increased afforestation in the Wairoa District in Northern Hawkes Bay. The approach adopted involved face-to-face interviews with over 80 local residents, including farmers and iwi representatives, as well as policy makers, land agents, forestry experts, and scientists in Hawke’s Bay and elsewhere in the country. Group meetings were also held with farmers, iwi and others in the Wairoa District. Community engagement extended from mid-2019 to early in 2020. Concerns raised about increased afforestation included its impact on employment and pastoral land use and on the provision of public services. Such concerns are grounded in some part in Wairoa’s history and traditional dependence on the hill country as the source of its identity and social well-being. Increased tree planting confronts the perceptions and experience of many land users and other community members. Resistance is heightened where the policy goals appear to conflict with economic well-being or to undermine existing values. At the same time there is evidence of a broad consensus in favour of tree planting to meet environmental needs. Current policies challenge land users’ capacity to adapt and respond to the opportunities these policies provide. Building capacity requires the provision of information and other evidence to increase understanding among all stake-holder groups

Experience of Sexual Healthcare by Māori and Non-Māori Young People: An Online Survey of 15–24 Year Olds in Hawkes Bay, New Zealand

Objectives To understand young people’s expectations of, and experience with sexual healthcare in New Zealand. Methods: Online survey of 15–24 year olds in a region with high socioeconomic deprivation, with selected outcomes compared for Māori and Europeans. Results: Of 500 respondents, 60% had received sexual healthcare (74.3% in general practice) and 81% were happy with care received. Fewer Māori and people not in education, employment, or training reported positive experiences of sexual healthcare on arrival and in the consultation. Conclusions: Findings highlight the need for equitable delivery of youth-friendly, culturally safe, sexual and reproductive healthcare in general practice settings.

Origin of the mineralised Hawke Bay conglomerate and its importance in formation of the Vassbo lead-zinc deposit, Sweden

Origin of the mineralised Hawke Bay conglomerate and its importance in formation of the Vassbo lead-zinc deposit, Sweden

Has the introduction of two subspecies generated dispersal barriers among invasive possums in New Zealand?

The introduction of species into new environments provides the opportunity for the evolution of new forms through admixture and novel selection pressures. The common brushtail possum, Trichosurus vulpecula vulpecula from the Australian mainland and T.v.fuliginosus from Tasmania, were introduced multiple times to New Zealand from Australia to become one of New Zealand’s most significant pests. Although derived from two subspecies, possums in New Zealand are generally considered to be a single entity. In a previous analysis, we showed that possums in the Hawkes Bay region of New Zealand appeared to consist of at least two overlapping populations. Here, we extend that analysis using a genotype-by-sequencing approach to examine the origins and population structure of those possums and compare their genetic diversity to animals sampled from Australia. We identify two populations of each subspecies in Hawkes Bay and provide clear evidence of a contact zone between them in which a hybrid form is evident. Our analysis of private alleles shows higher rates of dispersal into the contact zone than away from it, suggesting that the contact zone functions as a sink (and hence as a barrier) between the two subspecies. Given the widespread and overlapping distribution of the two subspecies across both large islands in New Zealand, it is possible that many such contact zones exist. These results suggest an opportunity for a more targeted approach to controlling this pest by recognising sub-specific differences and identifying the contact zones that may form between them.

The Initial COVID-19 Rāhui: Resilience among social work tauira in Tairāwhiti and Hawke's Bay

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in some significant changes in tertiary education in Aotearoa New Zealand. This situation report identifies the current situation and the issues and challenges for social work degree students at the Eastern Institute of Technology’s campuses in Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti. The report highlights the resilience of tauira in these challenging times. It also proposes a way forward for future learning that supports tikanga and the diverse needs and realities of tauira.

Proximal and distal influences on dietary change among a diverse group with prediabetes participating in a pragmatic, primary care nurse-led intervention: a qualitative study.

To understand motivators, facilitators and challenges to dietary change amongst a diverse sample of New Zealanders with prediabetes participating in a primary care nurse-led individualised dietary intervention. A qualitative study involving semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with a stratified sample of adults with prediabetes and BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2, purposefully selected from a larger 2-year primary care-based prediabetes dietary intervention study. Thematic analysis was undertaken. A socio-ecological model guided interpretation. Hawke's Bay, Aotearoa/New Zealand, April 2018-March 2020. Fifty-eight people aged 28-69 years, with similar numbers of men and women, indigenous Māori and non-Māori, and those who had and had not regressed to normoglycaemia at 6 months. Motivators for wanting to make dietary changes were determination not to progress to diabetes; wanting to be healthy and contribute to others and encouragement by others. Facilitators for adopting and maintaining changes were a strong desire to be healthy; personal determination and feeling supported. Challenges were compromised control over life and environmental factors; feeling unsupported by others; social occasions; financial constraints and living with other health conditions. Developing their own strategies to overcome challenges was empowering, enabling a sense of control. These factors were similar across demographic and glycaemic outcome groups. Influences on dietary change involved personal, interpersonal, organisational, environmental and policy factors. Although findings appeared similar across groups, dietary interventions need to address the specific ways motivators, facilitators and challenges manifest for individuals and social groups and be tailored accordingly within the context of the wider obesogenic and socio-economic environment.

Projected Wine Grape Cultivar Shifts Due to Climate Change in New Zealand.

Climate change has already been affecting the regional suitability of grapevines with significant advances in phenology being observed globally in the last few decades. This has significant implications for New Zealand, where the wine industry represents a major share of the horticultural industry revenue. We modeled key crop phenological stages to better understand temporal and spatial shifts in three important regions of New Zealand (Marlborough, Hawke's Bay, Central Otago) for three dominant cultivars (Merlot, Pinot noir, and Sauvignon blanc) and one potential new and later ripening cultivar (Grenache). Simulations show an overall advance in flowering, véraison, and sugar ripeness by mid-century with more pronounced advance by the end of the century. Results show the magnitude of changes depends on the combination of greenhouse gas emission pathway, grape cultivar, and region. By mid-century, in the Marlborough region for instance, the four cultivars would flower 3 to 7 days earlier and reach sugar ripeness 7 to 15 days earlier depending on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. For growers to maintain the same timing of key phenological stages would require shifting planting of cultivars to more Southern parts of the country or implement adaptation strategies. Results also show the compression of time between flowering and véraison for all three dominant cultivars is due to a proportionally greater advance in véraison, particularly for Merlot in the Hawke's Bay and Pinot noir in Central Otago. Cross-regional analysis also raises the likelihood of the different regional cultivars ripening within a smaller window of time, complicating harvesting schedules across the country. However, considering New Zealand primarily accommodates cool climate viticulture cultivars, our results suggest that late ripening cultivars or extended ripening window in cooler regions may be advantageous in the face of climate change. These insights can inform New Zealand winegrowers with climate change adaptation options for their cultivar choices.