In practical engineering components, due to the existence of non-uniform stress and strain field near the notch, it brings severe challenges to fatigue life prediction when evaluating the integrity of notched components. In this study, a probabilistic fatigue life prediction model for notched specimens was established by coupling the stress field intensity (SFI) method and Weibull distribution. Firstly, the position of the dangerous point is determined by finite element calculation, and the maximum strain energy density plane through the dangerous point is defined as the critical plane. Secondly, from the perspective of 2D features, the traditional SFI method is modified based on the stress distribution on the critical plane, and a new concept of effective stress is proposed to predict the fatigue life of notched specimens by the experimental data of smooth specimens. Finally, a new non-proportional additional hardening factor is established to characterize the influence of material properties and loading path on fatigue life. The experimental data of Q345 low alloy steel and GH4169 nickel base alloy are used to compare and analyze the proposed model. The results show that the predicted life of the proposed model is in good agreement with the experimental life.