Hard Power Research Articles

Războiul ruso-ucrainean și impactul său asupra securității cibernetice în NATO și în UE

Since early 2022, before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, cyberspace has been extensively utilised, with cyber operations playing a pivotal role in information concealment, deception, and attacks on critical infrastructure. Warfare has evolved, growing more intricate, and the amalgamation of cyber actions with hard power effects is progressively causing greater disruption. Cyber actions have extended beyond Ukraine’s borders, influencing neighbouring NATO and EU member states. These incidents are as pertinent as they are perilous for the security of states on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. This article explores the imperative for alliance cooperation and the development of cyber capabilities, doctrines, and strategies to foster a security environment conducive to the region. As a NATO and EU member state situated on the Eastern flank, Romania must remain a bastion of stability and a provider of security in the region. The alliances Romania is part of must adapt to confront these challenges.

Politics Between Nations. Contributions to International Relations, edited by Adebowale Akande. Springer, Cham. 2023. XXVII, 645 pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-24896-2.

This book comparatively analyzes global conflicts and diplomatic relations between international players, as well as the mechanisms of public diplomacy, the difficulties of peace diplomacy and hard power war. In the book, the authors pay special attention to the issues of the modern world order, relations between various geopolitical, regional and national actors in an environment of increasingly complex international relations, emerging challenges and threats. The authors pay special attention to the efforts of intergovernmental organizations, the problem of terrorism, including international terrorism, and the violation of global stability, which still remain serious challenges and threats that national states, as well as international institutions, are called upon to solve. The authors analyze various dimensions of the intensification of terrorism, military conflicts and threats to national states emanating from military blocs, and update the issues of terrorist danger and international instability. They note that this state of affairs in the world system puts on the political agenda the importance of enhanced interaction between national states with international weight, resources and capabilities. In this regard, constructive and civilized interaction of all countries in the international arena to counter terrorism and strengthen international stability is of particular relevance.

Memory-Political Deterrence: Shielding Collective Memory and Ontological Security through Dissuasion

Abstract Traditionally used within the context of hard military power in interstate relations, the concept of deterrence has been progressively extended to non-state actors and new issue areas. While scholarship on the social aspects of deterrence has expanded our understanding of this core international security practice, the focus of existing research has largely remained on physical security. This article argues that there is a phenomenon in international politics that can be called memory-political deterrence. Memory-political deterrence refers to the ways in which states seek to dissuade other political actors from taking actions that threaten the collective memory narratives that underpin the ontological security of the deterring actor. Memory-political deterrence works, for example, through political rhetoric, declarations, diplomatic insults, commemorative practices, and punitive memory laws. We illustrate the article’s arguments through empirical examples from Russia’s and China’s recent memory-political deterrence efforts toward Ukraine and Japan, respectively. In doing so, we elucidate the ways in which memory politics is intertwined with geopolitics, underpinning wider world-ordering aspirations.

Deciphering the maritime diplomatic properties of Malaysia's oil and gas explorations in the South China Sea

Studies in maritime diplomacy have treated the development of oil and gas explorations in the South China Sea as taken-for-granted events. On the contrary, this study argues that assessing the maritime diplomatic properties inherent in energy reserve explorations can reveal unique insights, motivations, and significance of maritime diplomatic events. It assesses Malaysia's oil and gas explorations in the Luconia Shoals, informed by the analytical framework of Le Mière's maritime diplomatic properties. Utilizing secondary data from the Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative between 2020 and 2023 related to Malaysia's oil and gas project developments in the Luconia Shoals, this article concludes that the maritime diplomatic events consist of the following characteristics: (1) pre-emptive and sustainment, underlining Malaysia's long-term plan of fulfilling the growing domestic energy demand, (2) explicitness of the messages transmitted to Chinese officials in order to repel any possibilities of adversaries misconstruing Malaysia's actions at sea, and (3) moderate kinetic effect due to the lethal weaponry at the disposal of the hard power assets deployed to handle occurring crisis. Evaluation of Malaysia's maritime diplomatic properties also reveals two worrying conclusions: (1) the existence of reactive events, which can cause disruptions at sea due to the lack of planning related to the actions taken by the Royal Malaysian Navy, and (2) asymmetrical power relations between China and Malaysia, predicted to cause China to continue its power projections at sea and aggravate Malaysian policymakers.

Russian strategic narratives, 2022–2023

Russia, in its competition with the liberal world for establishing the dominant discourse—alongside hard power military means—deploys soft power, leveraging the allure of illiberal values to forge foreign policy alliances, undermine the credibility of international institutions, and reshape the global order. Russian strategic narratives delineate the political objectives of the Russian government. In a contest for discursive authority with other global actors, Russia presents its vision of a new world order—a world partitioned among major powers—where Moscow holds the authority to determine the fate of peoples in the “Greater Eurasia” region, including Europe

SOFT POWER PROJECTION OF ASPIRING MIDDLE EASTERN POWERS TOWARDS YEMEN: THE CASE OF THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN

The multiple hard power engagements of the aspiring Middle East powers (the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran) in Yemen are self-evident. However, the disposition of foreign interference in Yemen is multifaced. Current research papers have primarily focused on using hard power military or economic tools, but soft power tools were left behind. Therefore, this article explores soft power’s nature influencing the countries above assert towards the Yemeni population. It focused on three ostensibly distinct areas of soft power – education, religion, and media – within each particular analysis since those three areas are key elements of the Saudi and Iranian soft-power toolkit. Multiple religious, educational, and media tools towards Yemen were detected in each case.

A Political Economy of Public Policymaking and Underdevelopment in Postcolonial African States: A Marxian Perspective

Debates over who makes public policy in postcolonial African states are lengthy, spanning from 1960s until now, even as such debates prompt pernicious human underdevelopment in this region. Driven by these unfinished debates’ impervious outcomes - the impoverishment of postcolonial Africans, this paper uses the Marxian political economy perspective to determine the mischievous insights arising from these debates, which prod irrational policymaking. It argues that, although policymaking is par excellence the impeccable and inescapable normal government activity and an important political instrument for exerting exhilarating or doldrums societies, it is fraught with inequitably precarious, intricate and dispute-prone processes for mobilising, distributing and allocating resources in societies. Consequently, the paper examines this activity’s shortcomings, not only through the cognitive capacities or incapacities of government officials, but through subjective irrational groups’ interests. Using the rational-comprehensive theory of policymaking, it concludes that, even as policymaking is estranged by malicious contestations through soft or hard power from competing forces with undemocratic claims over rights and resources, the Marxian political economy perspective and rational-comprehensive model can dependably ensure the region’s equitable development rather than underdevelopment.

The Ambivalence of Soft Power

In Soft Power and the Future of US Foreign Policy, Hendrik W. Ohnesorge has collected interesting and worthwhile essays demonstrating that values, policies and personalities – as well as artists and performers, philanthropic foundations, universities, corporations and churches – are elements of American soft power. These cultural resources add to a nation’s global reputation and influence. Factors afflicting America’s reputation today include the declining quality of life for many sectors of American society, the country’s inept response to the COVID-19 pandemic, recent foreign-policy disasters, and the coercive use of soft power itself. None of the contributors scrutinise the gap between promise and performance in US public diplomacy, but it seems clear that hard power undergirds soft power, and that the ability to call upon a uniquely abundant variety of means to project power is still what distinguishes the United States from all its competitors.

Home market power and host market protection of foreign investment

How do multinational firms trapped in host markets suffering from political violence find security? Terrorism and conflict repel foreign investment and recent research has sought to understand heterogeneity across firms in their response to violence. When multinational firms are unable to move their investments in the face of violence, we argue that their home governments use diplomatic capacity and security and economic resources to secure protection from host governments. Multinational corporations from home markets with significant leverage over host markets are therefore less likely to curtail their operations or investments in the wake of violence. Examining dyadic data on foreign direct investment (FDI), we show that home market diplomatic missions, aid, and alliances substantially abate the negative effects of violence on FDI. Consistent with our argument, this effect is observed after violence begins and is not an artifact of host markets garnering security aid from great powers other than the home market. A strong diplomatic presence matched to both hard and soft power resources positively contributes to the defense of core foreign policy interests.

The power politics of the Holy See: the church, the state, and its citizens

AbstractThis paper examines the Holy See as a political actor amid hard power conflict. While many debate the legal and religious personalities of the Holy See, few engage with an approach that illustrates the Holy See and its citizen-like laity in light of its combinative religious–political dynamic. This paper argues that resulting from this dynamic, the Holy See's sui generis statehood enables the comprehension of a similar sui generis citizenry. These citizens, which this paper labels pseudo-citizens, are the result of connections between the recognized sovereignty of the Holy See and its role over the Roman Catholic Church. This paper examines this connection contextually amid the Holy See's interaction with the underlying international moral framework on just conflict and the protective motivating factors associated with its pseudo-citizens. This motivation is consistent with historical Holy See positions, and is significant for understanding the Holy See's approach amid future hard power events.

Yakın Tarih ve Geleceğin Meydan Okumaları Arasında Türkiye-Cezayir İlişkilerinin Diplomasisi

The study of soft power and its impact on the foreign policy of states has a special place in understanding the tools of management and influence, and the directions of foreign policies, where the need for interest in the unconventional manifestations of power emerged, where alternative perceptions of coercion and forcedness have emerged; It is mainly based on persuasion and intimidation, in order for the state to be able, through this option, to influence its regional and international environment. Through this study, we aim to drop this proposition on the path of Turkish-Algerian relations, and the extent to which the Turkish-Algerian political action is compatible with the real implications of soft power. And the search for the impact of geopolitical characteristics on Turkish foreign policy and its use as tools for its soft power in implementing its foreign policy, through which it followed a new strategy called soft power instead of hard power to strengthen its relationship with Algeria.

From attractiveness to hard hedging: US allies’ response to Washington’s lack of security assurance under the Obama and Trump presidencies

ABSTRACT America’s allies have reacted differently to the uncertainty surrounding US global leadership and the return to hard power politics in the 2010s. Some allies have remained steadfast in their commitment to Washington, while others distanced themselves from the United States. Why is it so? This article develops an integrated argument that brings together different strands of the literature on alignment, to better make sense of cross-national and within-case variations in allies’ strategic behavior. By examining three case studies from distinct regional contexts – Japan, Poland and Turkey – the paper shows that although these allies all shared concerns about the Obama and Trump administrations’ security commitment, it was their differing perceptions of the threats posed by China and Russia’s power that influenced their pursuit of either stronger alignment with the US security patron – through internal balancing for ‘attractiveness’ and internal hedging –, or increased strategic autonomy from Washington by pursuing hard hedging.

The effect of Chinese vaccine diplomacy during COVID-19 in the Philippines and Vietnam: a multiple case study from a soft power perspective

Vaccine diplomacy is a subset of global health diplomacy and refers to the use and delivery of vaccines to achieve a country’s global health goals and foreign policy objectives. Countries have used vaccine diplomacy to increase their soft power during the COVID-19 pandemic. China, an emerging world power, was no exception in this trend. By December 2022, China had dispatched 1.65 billion vaccines worldwide; approximately one-third of the Chinese vaccines were sent to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. China attempted to increase its soft power via vaccine diplomacy to appeal to its neighbours with which it has long-standing territorial disputes in the South China Sea (SCS). Focusing on two key claimants in the SCS, our study has the following research question: How effective was Chinese COVID-19 vaccine diplomacy in the Philippines and Vietnam from a soft power perspective? Through a qualitative multiple case study research design, we determined the effectiveness of Chinese vaccine diplomacy in the Philippines and Vietnam by using four indicators of soft power: public opinion, foreign policy, attractiveness, and business and trade. Data collection consisted of a literature search of academic literature and newspaper articles that were published between 26 May and 13 June 2022. A thematic analysis was conducted to analyse the data. Analysing the effectiveness of Chinese vaccine diplomacy based on the four indicators of soft power, our results show that only the indicators of attractiveness in Vietnam and business and trade in the Philippines have somewhat improved. In contrast, the indicators of public opinion and foreign policy showed neutral or negative results for China. This study concludes that Chinese vaccine diplomacy in the Philippines and Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic was unsuccessful from a soft power perspective. One reason is that China undermined its soft power approach by simultaneously using hard power tactics in Southeast Asia. Using vaccine diplomacy to increase soft power is not always desirable from a global health perspective. Instead, countries should focus on equitable vaccine access and address asymmetrical power relations.

‘Tilting’ the balance? An evaluation of Britain’s strategic approach to the Indo-Pacific

Notwithstanding its exit from the European Union itself, the United Kingdom still remains an influential European power with significant interests and equities in the Indo-Pacific region. This article probes the substance of London’s engagement with the region through a distillation of relevant policy documents/statements appertaining to the Indo-Pacific. It reconciles this material within a three-tiered analytical framework that encompasses British ‘aims’; the ‘assets’ it holds; and then ‘assesses’ its performance and prospects. Like the other European actors considered in this Symposium, it reveals the strong confluence of economic, security and normative elements that define its regional strategic outlook. While there are many synergies with the approaches of the other European powers, what makes the United Kingdom case distinctive is a more prolific set of regional partnerships alongside multilateral engagement (‘networks and grids’), and a greater accent on hard power capabilities. The latter however are placed in service of the former – Britain has no aspirations to shift the regional balance of power independently.

The European approach to online disinformation: geopolitical and regulatory dissonance

The COVID-19 health crisis and the invasion of Ukraine have placed disinformation in the focus of European policies. Our aim is to analyze the emerging European policy on counter-disinformation practices and regulations. To do this, we examine developing European Union (EU) strategy, against different forms of fake news, from a multidisciplinary approach that combines Journalism and Geopolitics. Our methodology is based on the critical analysis of documents generated by the EU on disinformation from 2018 to 2022, including reports, communications, statements and other legislative texts. Our findings suggest that the EU’s policy against disinformation is based on two opposing logics that coexist and compete. The first is securitization, which understands this problem as a threat to democracy that legitimizes ‘exceptional decision-making’ from a hard power perspective. The second is based on the self-regulation and voluntarism of digital platforms with a clear orientation towards soft law and minimal intervention. The recent adoption of the Digital Services Act and the stronger regulation of online platforms do not replace this logic, since this legislation adopts a “co-regulatory framework”. The coexistence of these two logics generates internal contradictions and dissonance that can determine the future of European policies on this important topic and its chances of success.

Putting Logos on the World’s Best Running Feet: The Emergence of Apparel Sponsors in Ethiopian and Kenyan Athletics

Since the 1990s, most athletics federations have undertaken sponsorship negotiations with private shoe/apparel corporations. While these deals bring great sums of cash into the sport, some of which trickles down to the athletes, a great deal of it is used to leverage both hard and soft power in different regions of the world. The sponsorship regulations of national athletics federations have been recently politicized because of the ways that they conflict with their individual sponsorship agreements with other companies. Few, however, have examined the historical lineages and concerns for Ethiopian and Kenyan athletes – who come from some of the most cash poor and talent rich regions of the athletics world. This paper charts the historical relations and implications of the changes to commercial development and sponsorship as it pertains to Ethiopia and Kenya to broaden the geopolitical scope on this issue. Drawing on archival material and interviews with athletes and agents, it becomes clear that sponsors had their eyes on far more than outfitting the world’s top distance runners with their logo. Rather, they were after soft power that would enable them greater control in the flow of goods and capital to and within these countries.

Strategi Badan Narkotika Nasional Provinsi Jawa Timur dalam Mencegah Penyalahgunaan Narkotika di Lingkup Pelajar dan Mahasiswa Melalui Program P4GN

Narcotics cause a downward effect to loss of consciousness, hallucinations, and excitability. The turn of the globalization era has an impact on the younger generation among students and students who fall into promiscuity, and what's worse is the abuse of narcotics. Therefore, how is the strategy carried out by BNN East Java Province with the stages of implementing the strategy to determine the success of a strategy. This study uses Qualitative Research Methods, is research with the intention of interpreting the phenomena that occur. In qualitative research the methods usually used are interviews and documentation. The researcher processes it by describing the data obtained in the field in the form of written or oral data from the people involved in this research. There are 4 strategies implemented by BNN East Java Province, namely, Soft Power Approach, Hard Power Approach, Smart Power Approach and Cooperation. Of the four strategic points implemented by BNN East Java Province, the researcher took the Soft Power Approach point. East Java's efforts to prevent drug abuse in the scope of students and students are by implementing the Soft Power Approach strategy, namely by providing outreach and providing motivation, as explained above, the BNN of East Java Province guides Counseling Teachers and P4GN Activists in UKM Universities and also students and students, directing the dangers of narcotics and also the efforts made by the BNN of East Java Province in order to make students and students anti-drugs.

The Cyprus Conflict: A Case for ‘Joint Decision Trap’

This paper is about the current stage of the Cyprus conflict in the context of the recent developments in the Eastern Mediterranean. The energy discoveries could have been a catalyst for a solution, but the opposite occurred. The Greek Cypriot administration aimed to expand its regional ‘allies’ through maritime delimitation agreements. Meanwhile, Türkiye has continued its exploratory drilling. The trajectory that the Cyprus conflict followed after the Greek Cypriot administration’s EU membership in 2004 is a case of a ‘joint decision trap.’ The EU’s paralysis towards the conflict has pushed Türkiye, once proactive to resolve it with the expectation of becoming an EU member, to slide back to its traditional hard power strategy.

Transitioning Pakistan's Hard Power Image: A Strategic Exploration of Shifting Paradigms towards Soft Power Diplomacy

Transitioning Pakistan's Hard Power Image: A Strategic Exploration of Shifting Paradigms towards Soft Power Diplomacy

THE EUROPEAN UNION’S ENLARGEMENT POLICY CHANGES IN THE LAST DECADE – A SUCCESSFUL INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE OR DYSFUNCTIONAL TRANSFORMATION?

Since 2004, the European Union’s (EU) transformation and integration potential has been evident and limited. An unusual pattern of perceived threats and challenges precluded the EU’s enlargement. One country from the Western Balkans’ (WB) fold was found suitable over the last ten years to join the EU. The rest of the WB are still queuing in front of the gates of the EU family. The purpose of this paper is to assess how recent changes in the international arena, including suffering on Ukraine’s soil and providing candidate status for Ukraine at the same time, affected the EU “red lines” in the enlargement process, together with the lessons learned from the considerable enlargement in 2004. Does the EU enlargement policy as primarily part of the EU foreign policy still have the effect of a “screwdriver,” or has it eventually become a “hammer” of hard power and force by hitting suddenly foreign policy problems that look like nails (Kagan, 2003), as it seems in Ukraine’s example? Did the Lisbon Treaty bring profound transformation to enlargement policy, and is it still one of the EU’s successful stories? This article aims to answer these questions. The assessment method is based on the International practice theory approach and Christian Bueger’s and Frank Gadinger’s definition and determinants of practice known as the Commitments of International Practice Theory (relying on elements of practice defined by Emanuel Adler and Vincent Pouliot). This approach judges whether or not the EU is a global actor that fulfills all inquiries of creating international practice from the enlargement policy. Based on the results, it is confirmed that the EU is a worldwide actor surviving in times of global transformations and that the enlargement policy is a valuable international practice. However, changes in the conditionality policy in the EU accession process could lead to several scenarios, and one of them is the loss of interest in some of the candidate countries, which could cause perceiving the enlargement policy as a dysfunctional transformation in the future.