Hampton Roads Research Articles

U.S. Residents’ Current Attitudes toward Immigrants and Immigration

Abstract Immigration is a fiery topic in U.S. society, as it generally brings to a boil native-born citizens’ disparate attitudes toward immigrants and immigration. While immigration has its fierce supporters and opponents alike, the topic provides fodder for politicians who use it to stoke the fear of an impending “immigrant invasion” among citizens. This is why scholars must regularly undertake empirical studies to assess community members’ views about immigrants and immigration in U.S. society. To add to the contemporary immigration debate, I analyze data from a random sample of 610 respondents who reside in the seven cities that make up the Hampton Roads region of Southeast Virginia (this region has approximately 1.5 million people). The results show that younger people, the more highly educated, and males were of the opinion that immigration is generally good for the Hampton Roads economy. Moreover, participants who did not believe that immigration increased crimes rates or that recent immigrants will take jobs away from Hampton Roads residents agreed that immigration is generally good for the Hampton Roads economy. Finally, respondents who were pleased with the quality of life in both their neighborhood and city believed that immigration has a positive impact on Hampton Roads’ economy. The implications of my findings for scholars, elected officials, community members, public policy, and future research are discussed.

Flood-induced mobility in rural and urban coastal jurisdictions: a homeowner’s perspective

AbstractCoastal flooding often exceeds homeowners’ capacity to cope with repetitive damages and profoundly disrupts their livelihoods. Permanent relocation has been proposed as a solution for some coastal areas experiencing recurrent flooding and anticipating acceleration of impacts. However, it is unclear if homeowners living in such areas would support this strategy, where they would choose to go, and why. This study evaluates the willingness to relocate and the reasoning behind it among rural and urban homeowners residing in coastal high-risk areas. The rural versus urban comparison explores how attitudes toward relocation differ between these settings with distinct sociodemographic, economic, and cultural profiles. A mail survey administered on the Eastern Shore, Maryland, and in the Hampton Roads metropolitan area, Virginia, measured how willingness to relocate differs across the socioeconomic spectrum, prior flood exposure, concerns with flood impacts, and preferences for relocation destination. The survey responses were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results show that more than one-third of respondents would consider relocating. The willingness to relocate was marginally influenced by socioeconomic factors and flood experiences and instead was significantly correlated with the risk of disastrous flooding, inadequate insurance compensation, and worsening crime. However, data show a clear shift in relocation support and the distance of the preferred destination from minor to significant flooding. Rural respondents are slightly less likely to relocate than urban ones. Descriptive statistics indicate nuanced differences in flood experiences, reasons to relocate, and preferences for a new destination between rural and urban populations.

Estimating the economic vulnerability of 2020–2099 storm flooding with sea level rise on Coastal Virginia

Estimating the economic impact of flooding is an essential element of flood risk management. Policy interventions to mitigate the impact of flooding must be balanced against the financial and economic costs of flooding. Using projections of sea level rise for 2040, 2060, and 2080 and estimates of flooding damage that are equaled or exceeded 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year period, we investigate the financial costs of flooding across eight planning districts in Coastal Virginia. We briefly discuss the methodology to estimate the average annualized loss (AAL) given discrete events and likelihoods and how these AALs flow into the estimation of the net present value of flooding in Coastal Virginia. The Hampton Roads metropolitan area accounts for approximately 80.7% of estimated nominal losses currently, rising to 88.1% by 2080 due to sea level rise. This vulnerability is linked to poorly planned development, population growth, ground subsidence, and economic inequities. The present value of unmitigated flooding ranges from $20.0 billion to $58.7 billion in 2021 dollars, depending on the discount rate. Discounted economic impacts for unmitigated sea level rise could reach $82.9 billion for Coastal Virginia this century. The concentration of costs in Hampton Roads, which produces 20% of Virginia's GDP, underscores the need for targeted economic and security policies.

Relationship Between Firearm-Related Deaths and Food Insecurity in Hampton Roads

Relationship Between Firearm-Related Deaths and Food Insecurity in Hampton Roads

Uranium Mine Proposed Experimental Design for Natural Background Gross Gamma Exposure Rates, Post Remediation Final Status Survey Sampling Density, and Radiological Water Quality Modeling for a Worst-case Catastrophic Failure, Coles Hill, Virginia.

Completely randomized experimental design statistical modeling techniques were employed to analyze exposure rate measurements for evaluating hypothetical natural background post uranium mill operations at Coles Hill, Virginia uranium milling processes. The proposed Coles Hill Uranium Mine is situated upstream of the Banister River. This River is nearly homogenous throughout the reach length used in analysis and feeds into the mouth of Kerr Reservoir, Lake Gaston, which serves as the main drinking water source for cities in the Hampton Roads area including Norfolk, Virginia Beach, and Chesapeake. A critical scan value (=DCGLscan) was developed to flag anomalies of surface contamination during simulated post remediation final status surveys. The natural background was critical for meeting the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Site Investigation Manual guidance for post remediation final status surveys. The overarching null hypothesis suggested that the selected mean natural background is equal to the survey unit's mean natural background. Using SAS Procedures Shapiro-Wilk Test, ANOVA, and CR, it was decided the exposure rate data was normal, had no extreme outliers, and no collinearity between the number of samples (=treatment) and the areas (=block). Using the q-hyper (hypergeometric) distribution, the soil sampling density was decided for a final status survey unit. The most likely worst-case catastrophic failure analysis, 500-year event, such as the1969 Hurricane Camille of 69 centimeters of rain in Nelson County, Virginia was included in the model. The model showed impact was minimal at most to the Banister River's drinking water and likely less than the Virginia's Drinking Water Standards for gross alpha, 226Ra and 228Ra, and total uranium.

Understanding hospitality labor shortages: An importance-performance analysis of hospitality career preference drivers

Due to perennial challenges surrounding hospitality staffing shortages, this study uses an established 20-item career preference scale to conduct an importance-performance analysis (IPA) on hospitality workers in Hampton Roads, Virginia (USA). Findings indicate that work-family balance (WFB) and low starting salaries are the two issues in most need of managerial attention. Moreover, this research finds that WFB is more challenging in hotels compared to restaurants; worse for front-of-the-house workers than back-of-the-house; more pronounced for full-time as opposed to part-time staff; and more of a challenge for managers than non-managers. These between group differences are not found for starting salaries.

Abstract 6112: Uncovering clinicopathological factors contributing to racial inequities in pancreatic cancer in Hampton Roads, Virginia

Abstract Introduction: Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the 3rd leading cause of cancer-related deaths, with 12% surviving 5 years post-diagnosis. The delayed symptom onset, lack of effective screening, and advanced presentation render most patients ineligible for surgery. For inoperable PDAC, treatment offers only palliative support, resulting in a 1-year median survival, in contrast to 3 years for operable cases. Black patients face a 30-70% higher PDAC mortality rate than other racial groups in the United States. In Hampton Roads, Virginia, from 2015-2019, the black PDAC population had a mortality rate of 17.3%, notably surpassing the 10.8% rate among white PDAC patients. Consequently, this project aims to address the disparate disease burden of PDAC in the black Hampton Roads community. Methods: Chart review of 427 inoperable PDAC patients from the Sentara Cancer Network and Virginia Oncology Associates was conducted. Age at diagnosis, treatment date, treatment type, and death date of the black and white inoperable cohorts were extracted. Average length of disease, age of onset, and time from diagnosis to treatment were calculated. KM survival analysis compared the cohorts’ survival rates. Results: From 2008 to 2016, the white cohort had shorter survival rates than the black cohort. The black population averaged a disease length of 249 days, while the white population faced 190 days. The average age at diagnosis was 67 in the black cohort and 70 in the white cohort. 42.1% of white PDAC patients did not receive treatment, while 29.9% of black PDAC patients went untreated. Discussion: While the black population faces higher mortality, the white PDAC inoperable cohort had shorter disease duration and lower survival. A higher number of white patients also did not receive therapy, likely due to their older age, leading to added comorbidities and advanced stages of disease. Elder patients often decline treatment due to its limited impact on lifespan and quality of life. Further, the longer survival found in black patients may paradoxically contribute to a high mortality rate in Black patients. 21% of the black cohort survived over a year, prompting questions about their classification as inoperable and their access to the only curative treatment. This discovery motivates examination of the decisions behind labeling these patients as inoperable. The ongoing investigation into factors, such as stage at diagnosis and standard of care adherence, strives to continue to uncover the reasons for the high mortality rate in the Black PDAC Hampton Roads population. Citation Format: Fatima W. Chaudhry, Zakary L. Kolkey, Ashleigh E. Hannah, Richard A. Hoefer, Amy Tang. Uncovering clinicopathological factors contributing to racial inequities in pancreatic cancer in Hampton Roads, Virginia [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 6112.

Abstract 2137: Racial disparities in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) mortality rates in Hampton Roads Virginia and the effects of SIAH expression on prognosis

Abstract Background: While high-resolution imaging and advancements in therapies have significantly improved breast cancer survival rates, 43,170 breast cancer patients will die in the United States in 2023 alone. Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is the most aggressive breast cancer subtype and disproportionately affects BRCA1 mutation carriers and young black women. Black/African American (AA) patients have the highest mortality and the shortest survival of any racial/ethnic group in the US. Persistent cancer racial disparities remain due to a variety of risk factors. The SEER/CDC data show an 8% lower breast cancer incidence rate and a 41% higher mortality rate in Black/AA patients compared to their white counterparts. Methods: Chart review was conducted using Sentara MD Office/EPIC and VOA iKnowMedicine portals to update tumor relapse, metastasis, and survival in 577 TNBC patients. Supported by strong evidence in developmental, evolutionary, and cancer biology, we hypothesize that persistent EGFR/K-RAS/SIAH pathway activation is a major driving force of TNBC malignancy, racial disparity, early relapse, and high mortality. We propose to integrate SIAH expression to augment the existing clinicopathological parameters to improve patient risk stratification, therapy quantification, and relapse/survival prediction at the 1st-line neoadjuvant settings. Results: We report that cancer disparity and high mortality rates are even more pronounced in our racially-diverse communities in Hampton Roads Virginia. We discovered that SIAH is a tumor-specific, therapy-responsive, and prognostic biomarker in TNBC. High SIAH expression in residual tumors reflects tumor-driving EGFR/K-RAS/SIAH pathway activation (ON) that will predict cancer disparity, treatment resistance, early relapse, and poor survival. Low SIAH expression in residual tumors reflect EGFR/K-RAS/SIAH pathway inactivation (OFF) that will predict tumor remission and prolonged survival. Conclusion: We detect a major racial disparity of TNBC patients at Sentara-EVMS-VOA. Our local Black/AA TNBC patients have a 1.6-fold higher mortality rate than their White counterparts. Encouraged by our preliminary data, we aim to develop a SIAH-centered biomarker panel by measuring the EGFR/K-RAS/SIAH pathway activation (ON)/inactivation (OFF), and use SIAH as a new prognostic biomarker to risk stratify patients, detect cancer racial disparities, forecast tumor relapse, and predict patient survival at 1st-line neoadjuvant settings. By targeting SIAH, individualized treatments can be created to allow for increased survival rates in at risk individuals with more aggressive TNBCs. Citation Format: Claire B. Piatak, Taylor N. Drake, Ashleigh Hannah, Jonathan Baker, Caroline L. Dasom, Emily L. Breeding, Janet S. Winston, Billur Samli, Rick Jansen, Michael Danso, Richard A. Hoefer, Amy H. Tang. Racial disparities in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) mortality rates in Hampton Roads Virginia and the effects of SIAH expression on prognosis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 2137.

Corridor-Level Auto Occupancy in Mobility Monitoring Efforts: A Crash-Based Approach

Vehicle occupancy (the number of persons per vehicle) is fundamental to evaluations of transportation system performance focused on the movement of people rather than solely vehicles. Historically, obtaining detailed estimates of occupancy has required manual (expensive) field data collection. This paper reports on a crash-based approach for estimating occupancy. Because some characteristics, such as the presence of multiple passengers aged 16 to 21, may affect the likelihood of crash involvement, the study examined ways to control possible crash bias using two methods. The first—heuristic bias correction, which entails synthesizing missing samples—is useful for smaller jurisdictions where there is no ground truth value readily available but an area-wide occupancy measure is needed. The second—statistical bias correction, which uses manual observations for calibration followed by the creation of a model—is suitable for obtaining occupancy at the corridor level. The approach is demonstrated with 12 years of fall and spring crash data for the Hampton Roads region of southeastern Virginia, U.S., representing 1.7 million people and 50,000 crashes. Testing showed estimated occupancies were within roughly 0.05 of true occupancy when corridor-specific calibration was performed. Further, the larger number of samples used for an area-wide occupancy means that heuristic bias correction is not always necessary: for cities with more than 200 samples, the difference between uncorrected and corrected occupancies was 0.02. For states that report the number of occupants for crashes with and without injury, this approach holds promise for estimating vehicle occupancy for both corridors and regions.

Movement patterns of foraging common terns (Sterna hirundo) breeding in an urban environment in coastal Virginia.

Nesting colonial seabirds are prime examples of central-place foragers, animals that must return to a central location (e.g., a breeding colony) after each bout of foraging. They must balance the costs and benefits of foraging with the need to return to their colonies frequently to form pair bonds during courtship, incubate, provision mates and offspring, and protect and rear young. For some populations, the loss and degradation of suitable breeding habitat due to human activities have necessitated the construction of new breeding sites and/or the restoration of previously occupied sites. South Island, which is part of the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel (HRBT) complex in the Commonwealth of Virginia, U.S.A., is a human-created island that supported Virginia's largest mixed species seabird colony until 2020, when the expansion of the HRBT began and when all nesting seabirds were permanently excluded from the site. We studied the movement patterns of foraging common terns (Sterna hirundo) to determine how travel to and around foraging sites related to their colony location and to inform the siting and construction of a new breeding island. We tracked 18 individual common terns from 07 June to 29 June 2018, and we used a hidden Markov model to assign behavioral states and investigate common tern movements around the HRBT. Common terns spent more than half their time in the colony (58%), followed by time devoted to foraging (22%), and the remainder of their time was spent on outbound (15%) and inbound (5%) transit. Terns traveled as far as 98km from the colony, but on average foraged relatively close to South Island (13.6 ± 0.3km, mean ± 1 SD). Individuals tended to forage in the same locations, but there was variation among individuals. Flying to foraging sites uses energy during the already energetically costly breeding season, thus managers should prioritize placing a new colony site in a location that minimizes the distance traveled to the foraging locations frequented by the South Island birds while accounting for other life-history characteristics. These findings could help in the design and construction of new breeding sites or the restoration of current sites for other, related species, particularly for which these data do not exist.

A Simulation-Based Disaster Management Framework to Analyze Housing Recovery: The Case of Hampton Roads, USA

A Simulation-Based Disaster Management Framework to Analyze Housing Recovery: The Case of Hampton Roads, USA

FAITH-BASED COMMUNITY OUTREACH TO INCREASE ALZHEIMER’S CLINICAL RESEARCH PARTICIPATION IN THE BLACK COMMUNITY

Abstract Issues: Despite the fact that African Americans are twice more likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease (AD) compared to non-Hispanic whites, they are under-represented in AD clinical research. Lower representation exists in the AHEAD Study as well, which is an AD prevention clinical trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of Lecanemab in 1400 study participants. We sought to raise awareness about AD and increase clinical research participation of African Americans in the AHEAD Study, through a community-based education and recruitment program (CERP). Description: Our diverse team from Eastern Virginia Medical School and Hampton University, a Historically Black College University (HBCU), established a Community Advisory Board and Ministerial Alliance with representation from faith-based, long-standing civic and fraternal organizations within the Greater Hampton Roads Black community. The alliance guided us to identify prioritization areas for addressing sociocultural barriers and increasing clinical research awareness and participation in traditional African American events, key historic community sites, and non-traditional community centers (i.e., YMCA, independent-living, assisted-living centers, Annual Juneteenth Celebration, Black fraternity, and sorority events.) Community health workers, embedded within the community, of the same cultural background and ethnicity, drove our CERP. Lessons Learned: As of July 2023, we offered our program at 45 community events, including community health fairs, civics events, and Purple Sunday luncheons and talks at Black churches in urban and localities in Hampton Roads, in partnership with fraternal and civic community organizations. Out of over 1700 participants, 177 community members have been prescreened for the AHEAD Study.

Inequities Along the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Services Continuum for Black Women in the United States, 2015-2020.

To estimate the number of women who received human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) services by race and ethnicity in seven THRIVE (Targeted Highly Effective Interventions to Reverse the HIV Epidemic)-funded jurisdictions and to estimate associations of age and syphilis and gonorrhea diagnoses with receipt of HIV PrEP services. We analyzed data collected from 2015 to 2020 in Birmingham, Alabama; Baltimore City, Maryland; Washington, DC, New Orleans, Louisiana; Brooklyn, New York; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Hampton Roads, Virginia. We compared Black women and women of additional racial and ethnic groups by age, HIV status at enrollment, receipt of STI testing and test positivity, and steps in the PrEP continuum (screened, eligible, referred, linked, and prescribed). We also examined the association of age, syphilis, or gonorrhea with the following steps in the PrEP continuum: screened, referred, linked, and prescribed. Black women made up 69.2% (8,758/12,647) of women served in THRIVE. Compared with non-Black women, Black women were more likely to have a positive test result for syphilis (3.3% vs 2.1%), gonorrhea (4.9% vs 3.5%), chlamydia (5.1% vs 1.9%), or more than one STI (1.4% vs 0.3%). Among women with negative HIV test results or unknown HIV status, Black women were more likely to be screened for PrEP eligibility (88.4% vs 64.9%). Among Black women, the proportion screened for PrEP was higher among those diagnosed with syphilis (97.3%) or gonorrhea (100%) than among those without an STI (88.1% and 87.8%, respectively). Among 219 Black women who presented with syphilis, only 10 (4.6%) were prescribed PrEP; among 407 with gonorrhea, only 11 (2.7%) were prescribed PrEP. Although most Black women seeking services received STI testing, the proportion of Black women who were eligible for PrEP and prescribed PrEP was low. To achieve national HIV-prevention goals, it is imperative that Black women have access to PrEP information and services.

Sequentially modeling household accommodation, destination, and departure time choices

During evacuations, households make a number of important, related choices including accommodation type, destination, and departure time. They may make trade-offs among these choices where one decision affects the others. The analysis models the linkages among these three aforementioned choices using data from a household behavioral intention survey conducted in 2017 in the Hampton Roads, VA area. Statistical tests and a theoretical basis show that the approach that best fits the dataset was to estimate the three choices in a sequence, where the first decision serves as an independent variable in the next choice process. To model the sequence, we began by modeling accommodation choice using a multinomial logit (MNL) model. Next, the accommodation choice decisions were used with other control variables to estimate destination choice in a second MNL model. Last, evacuation distance (related to destination decisions) was used in a Cox proportional-hazards model to estimate departure time choices. The models that provide the best estimates included the following control variables that help explain the sequence of decisions residents in the Hampton Roads area expect to make: (1) a variable expressing residential stability helps explain accommodation choice; (2) prior evacuation experience, the geographic location of a household, and the duration of living in the area help predict the destination choice; and (3) distance to the chosen destination helps predict departure time. Findings from this study provide evidence that the decisions associated with these three choices influence each other and help emergency managers identify additional actions that potentially can improve the evacuation experiences of local residents.

The exposure of vulnerable coastal populations to flood-induced Natech events in Hampton Roads, Virginia

The exposure of vulnerable coastal populations to flood-induced Natech events in Hampton Roads, Virginia

Norfolk, Virginia, and the Hampton Roads (Tidewater) Region

Norfolk, Virginia, and the Hampton Roads (Tidewater) Region

Flooding perception and its impact on hurricane evacuation intentions

Just before a hurricane is expected to strike an urban area, evacuation orders are issued to get people to safer zones. Issued by local governments, evacuation orders are made based on the actual flooding risk for individuals living in the affected areas; however, not everyone follows the orders. In past decades, understanding what makes people leave or stay has become a major research objective among academics. Although flooding risk, whether perceived or actual, is considered the main trigger in the evacuation decision-making, it has received little attention. Using data from 2200 households located in the hurricane-prone area of Hampton Roads in Virginia, US, this paper analyzes the role of evacuation zones and the perceived probability of flooding in the perception of risk. The findings reveal that proper evacuation zone awareness and trust in authorities are critical to increasing evacuation intention rates. We also provide several insights for emergency managers and policymakers to proactively plan and communicate the risks for increased evacuation rates that can reduce personal and human losses.

Examining the predictors of the public’s trust in the police using local data

ABSTRACT Assessing public attitudes toward the police is a mainstay of policing research because of the importance of police-community relations for the betterment of society. To have a better understanding of the antecedents of public trust in the police, we analyze data from residents of the Hampton Roads region of Southeast Virginia. Our findings indicate that older respondents, those who believe that the police treat racial and ethnic minorities equally as they do whites, and those who believe that the police protect people from crime expressed higher levels of trust in the police. Conversely, males, Blacks, and those who earned $50,000 or less expressed lower levels of trust in the police. To our surprise, we found that protection from crime appeared to matter more for community members than the police’s treatment of racial and ethnic minorities as far as trust in the police was concerned. This means that police effectiveness remains a crucial component of policing, even if the way the police treat minority community members is also very important for improving police-community relations. We point out the implications of our findings for police-community relations, public policy, and future research.

Comparing Black Business Owners in 1896 Philadelphia to Black Business Owners in 2022 Hampton Roads

Comparing Black Business Owners in 1896 Philadelphia to Black Business Owners in 2022 Hampton Roads

Impacts of household vulnerability on hurricane logistics evacuation under COVID-19: The case of U.S. Hampton Roads

Historical data suggest that when a severe tropical storm or hurricane impacts a community, the vulnerable segment of the population suffers the most severe consequences. With an increased aging population, it is crucial to understand how vulnerability alters evacuation behavior. Emergent variables such as fear of COVID-19 require additional exploration. People afraid of COVID-19 exposure may refuse to evacuate, exposing themselves unnecessarily. Differentiation is critical to evacuation logistics since it is needed to determine what proportion would stay in a local shelter, public or other, rather than evacuating or staying in their home and guide the logistics resource allocation process. This research uses data from a web and phone survey conducted in the Hampton Roads area of U.S. Virginia, with 2,200 valid responses to analyze the influence of social and demographic vulnerability factors and risk perception on evacuation decisions. This research contributes to the existing literature by developing a multinomial order logit model based on vulnerability factors and intended evacuation decisions, including staying at home, looking for a shelter, or leaving the Hampton Roads area. Findings show that race and risk perception are the variables that influence the decision-making process the most. Fear of COVID-19 transmission is also associated with an increased likelihood of leaving homes during evacuation. The variations in findings from previous studies are discussed regarding their implications for logistics emergency managers.