Half Of 2010s Research Articles

Household debt and financial vulnerability: empirical evidence for Spain, 2002–2020

The aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of Spanish households’ indebtedness and financial vulnerability over the course of this century using micro-data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Our results show a growing debt participation of Spanish households and an increase in the stock of outstanding debt of indebted households, a trend that reversed with the end of the Great Recession. Moreover, the percentage of financially vulnerable households according to three indicators grew dramatically until the end of the downward phase of the last economic cycle and showed considerable signs of improvement during the second half of 2010s. These results, nonetheless, call attention to the number of Spanish households being unable to service their debts in the face of an economic downturn.

Division, Persecution and Rearrangement - The AKP’s Controversial Relationship with Turkish Civil Society

Throughout history, and especially in the Ottoman Empire, Turkish culture has attached great importance to foundations. In the past, mosques, schools, public baths, free kitchens, and hospitals alike, all operated in the form of foundations. After the proclamation of the republic in 1923, much of this structure was abolished by the state founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk because he believed that they were tied to the Muslim clergy by a thousand threads. In the initial period of the republic, Turkish civil society was slowly reorganized following Western examples. It lived its second heyday as a result of the introduction of the new constitution in 1982 and Turgut Ozal’s liberal economic policy, and his media market liberalization after 1983. After the Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002, the civil society in Turkey was significantly rearranged. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party favored some with a system of opportunities, and sued those who put the government in a politically awkward position. Building on some of the scandalous cases of the second half of 2010s, this article seeks to explain the current situation of Turkish civil society and the conflicts that characterize it. The article highlights the campaign against Amnesty International and the Open Society Foundation, which by November 2021 was only partially over. In the case of current events, in the absence of scientific sources, the writings of renowned Turkish journalists at world-famous news portals were used as a basis. However, in order to substantiate the theory, an abundant literature in Turkish and English was also used.

German-Norwegian Relations in the Second Half of 2010s: Political and Military Aspects

The article characterizes the relations between the NATO member states which are also Arctic states in military-political sphere. In this situation Norway is a valuable partner not only for the USA but also for European NATO member states and especially Germany considering its ambitions as full-fare global power. The goal of article is to explore trajectory and dynamics of German-Norwegian relations in political-military sphere in the second half of 2010s. The paper issues the functioning of negotiation link A. Merkel — E. Solberg and also German steps which led to its launch. The author shows the importance of Norway for Germany as an Arctic and in this regard explores Germany’s Arctic strategy. Germany tried to neutralize the negative effect of Norway’s lack of EU membership and also the unwillingness of Norway to join PESCO platform. There was the spill-over effect when the experience of full-fare cooperation in political sphere was also moved to the military sphere at the end of 2010s. The paper explores the features of the competition between the USA and Germany for influence over Norway in the context of the US and German Arctic ambitions. The author concludes about the possibilities and difficulties of the further rise of German-Norwegian relations for the perspective by the early 2020s.

Концентрация и конкуренция в современном банковском секторе Сербии: перемены и декомпозиция индекса Херфиндаля – Хиршмана

Paper considers the concentration (and competition) and changes in concentration in banking sector of Serbia (without Kosovo and Metohia) in the second half of 2010s and beginning of 2020s. In the first part of work the main theoretical and methodological questions of the research of concentration and competition were presented, and after them the specific characteristics of competition in banking sector, as one of the form of competition. Author emphasizes the importance of the choice of balance variables for the calculation of concentration indices and chooses next variables: total assets, deposits, capital, operating income, and loans. In the next part using the Herfindahl – Hirschman index, one of the most popular methods, it was shown that the degree of concentration is low, although close to moderate. At the end, on the basis of very rare used method it were decomposed the changes of this concentration index into two factors: component of inequality in market shares distribution, and component of the number of banks. It was shown that impacts of these two factors are not equal and vary through the years. All the types of its varying were classified into six groups depending on types of these factors changes and its relationships. Among the six possible types of changes the type VI prevails in many cases (decrease of inequality of market shares and decrease of number of banks where the first change is greater than second). On the other side, in 2021 (I–VI) for all variables type of changes I happens (increase of inequality and decrease of number of banks). Very interesting is also the fact that in general concentration index was not increased, although the number of banks constantly decreased and component of inequality in many cases had greater impact on the changes of concentration index than the component of inequality.

Постколониальный французский Сахель: стратегическое проникновение ФРГ

Some of post-imperial spaces (especially former colonial ones) face with the emergence of hotbeds of instability on their territory. This problem may be delayed and has emerged long after the declaration of independence. One of the key examples is the armed conflict in Mali (since 2012) that was part of former French colonial empire. If the state cannot independently overcome a diverse internal crisis, it will have interest in playing by external actors the roles of its secure and stable development guarantees. The article shows the features of this process, using the concept of tidal and ebb “waves”. The author tries to explore German strategic penetration to Mali and G5 Sahe countries (also Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Niger, Tchad) as the traditional zone of French interests. The scientific paper issues why exactly the post-imperial spaces of former French colonial empire were the key directions of Bundeswehr usage not only in Africa but also in Asia. The features and “narrow places” of German-French cooperation in Sahel is presented. Berlin has been trying to achieve strategic autonomy from France in the region. Germany has used the “roll-over” tactic. It means the usage of the resources, including military, in areas that France itself did not pay due attention to. The article shows FRG`s contribution in multilateral strategic penetration into Mali in 2013–2015 (before the signing of inter-Malaysian agreements), during the second half of 2010-s and in the beginning of 2020-s where there were two military coups in the country. The paper concludes about the perspectives of strengthening of German line in «G5 Sahel» countries for the perspective.

Взаимоотношения ФРГ с государствами Северной Африки

The article examines the process of the growing German political and military activity in North Africa during the second half of the 2010s. The first key reason of this process was the new awareness of the regional role in the ensuring of Germany’s and the EU security. During and after the “Arab Spring”, the interstate “corridor of instability” arose. It went from Mali further to Niger and Libya which has been facing permanent instability after the intervention of the group of Western countries (2011, without German participation). The full-fledged functioning of the “corridor of instability” could cause the worse version of the refugee crisis and growing terrorist activity than it was in the EU in 2015–2016. The second reason was the necessity to ensure Berlin`s strong political-military positions in North Africa for the realization of Germany`s ambitions as a future world power. The research examines the features and “narrow places” of interstate cooperation in the security sphere between Germany and Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria. Germany became a senior partner for Tunisia in 2015–2017, and positioned these relations as exemplary. Since 2015–2016, Germany and Egypt have been supporting the realization of each other’s leadership ambitions. The key elements of this tactic have been the cooperation in Syrian and Libyan armed conflicts regulation and launch of the EU–LAS negotiation format (2019). The article also shows the dynamics of partnership between Germany and Algeria, paying special attention to bilateral cooperation in the sphere of the Mali, Libyan and Western Sahara conflicts regulation. The transition of Germany’s bilateral relations with Egypt and Algeria to the level of advanced cooperation in the second half of 2010s caused a powerful growth of the FRG`s arms export to these countries. At the beginning of 2020, Germany launched the multilateral Berlin conference for resolution of the Libyan conflict. Germany’s late but rather successful involvement in the Libyan conflict management should ensure its efforts to become the external participant of the North African regional security system. The paper concludes about the perspectives of the FRG`s political-military line in the region considering the factor of COVID 19 pandemic.

Математические оценки развития и использования военного потенциала стран Запада (на примере ФРГ)

We can face the fact that the factor of military power has been gaining increasing influence in the world politics. In this regard one of key tasks of international relations` studies is the exploration of armed forces` building of the countries in the dynamics. The creating a three-dimensional picture of these processes is difficult without the use of mathematical indicators, which show the key features and “narrow places” of the development and the usage of war machines’ potential of the key countries in the world arena. In this article the focal case of these studies with the usage of mathematical assessments is the Bundeswehr. The reason of the given choice is the changing German role and place in the Euro-Atlantic community and the world arena as the whole. Germany has been trying to become the status of full-fare world power. One of the inherent features of this process is the growing of the Bundeswehr`s potential that had begun in the second half of 2010-s and has had the perspective by the middle 2030-s. The article presents mathematical indicators that allow to show a more voluminous assessment of the progress of building the Bundeswehr's potential and German military budget (both in general and in terms of articles of spending and other specific indicators) in comparison with other largest NATO member states. The research paper also examines the indicators that make it possible to “highlight” the peculiarities of the Bundeswehr’s usage outside and inside the NATO zone of responsibility as well as issues the evolution of the foreign (allied) military presence on the territory of the FRG. The author tries to conclude the generalizations of German “war machine” development, basing on 11 mathematical indicators, 6 of which introduced into scientific circulation for the first time.

К вопросу схемы структурных реформ современных вооруженных сил: пример ФРГ

In the XXIth century armed forces of world countries` face the need to counter the sharply increased range of security threats. The growing number of them are untraditional (have non-military character) and projected from distant regions. An effective answer can be found only by the structural reform of armed forces. During the XXth century the key direction of armed forces` structural reforms was the creation the new (technical) kinds of troops. In the XXIth century structural reform has another key direction, that is the creation of interspecific groupings of troops. Each of them should have its own geographical (near or far from the national borders) and functional (the types of security threats) zone of responsibility. The goal of the article is to explore the realization of the scheme of armed forces` structural reforms on the example of the Bundeswehr. The reason of the choice of Germany is its unique position as the only emerging power among Euro-Atlantic member states. The article explores the features and «narrow places» of the creation by Germany of scheme of perspective armed forces` creation and its realization from 1990-s until mid 2010-s. The author covers the results of the creation of general forces and forces of crisis management in the key kinds of troops (land, naval, air). The article shows the change of trajectory of the Bundeswehr`s development since the second half of 2010-s in the context of long-term plans aimed at the ending of the structural reform. In the conclusion the author shows the importance of the armed forces` institutional reforms for the stats as the whole and Germany and the features of the dynamics of this process for the Bundeswehr.

Modern Investment Legislation in Egypt

The main purpose of the article is to determine and analyze the essence and role of contemporary investment legislation in Egypt within the process of active “authoritarian modernisation”. The latter has been evolving in the Egyptian political and economic institutional structure in the latter half of 2010s, after the failure of the previous reforms and their driving political forces connected to and supporting the “Arab spring” of 2011-2013. The attention is concentrated on the recent legislative regulating instruments, designed to stimulate the investment activities of both local and foreign businesses, especially with the aim to direct their financial, managerial, technological and other resources, starting with the hard currency inflows, to the execution of new projects selected by the state due to their strategic importance for modern Egyptian economy. Most importance in this context is the analysis of the Investment Law No. 72 of 2017 and the Law No. 72 of 2017 Promulgating the Investment Law. The study reveals that those documents, less than a year after their coming into force, have already proved ample potential to accelerate economic development of the Arab country under review, i.e. serving as a means to increase the attraction of incoming foreign direct investments (FDI). The new laws should compliment other economic reforms, which have been recently implemented, including: 1) the shift from the previous sales tax regime to a comprehensive value added tax (VAT) system; 2) the liberalisation of the foreign exchange system; 3) the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime; and 4) the gradual reduction of energy subsidies. The author admits that it is rather difficult to separate the effects of each one of the mentioned reforms, the more so that some of the results are not devoid of contradictions. Yet there is hardly any doubt as to their positive synergetic influence improving the overall investment climate in the Arab Republic of Egypt (ARE). The analyses supported by the latest consolidated statistics of the IMF reveal that the growth in ARE accelerated for four consecutive quarters, reaching 5.2% in July-September 2017, compared to 3.4% in the same quarter of the previous year, unemployment has declined, inflation continued to go down from the peaks reached following the pound floatation and energy price reforms, and the external position strengthened, while inflows exceeded original program expectations. Positive market sentiment reflects growing credibility of the economic management. To unlock Egypt’s growth potential, raise export competitiveness and create more private sector jobs, the authorities are enhancing the modern broad-based strategy of market-friendly reforms. In 2017, apart from the mentioned new investment law, the Egyptian parliament passed an industrial land and licensing law. Access to industrial land has become more readily available as nearly 17 mln sqm of land was provided in 2016/17 compared to 9.5 mln for the whole period of 2007-15. Key reforms in the pipeline include a new bankruptcy law and a single proprietor company law that aims to encourage small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). With improved overall confidence and growing credibility of the governmental program, the private sector entrepreneurship become more visible, and there is a growing interest by foreign investors, including in the newly established industrial free zones. Thus Egypt has been highlighted as the fastest growing location for start-ups with growth of over 100 percent in the previous year, reaching over 500 registered startups, and with very promising prospects for rapid growth.