Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Research Articles

An operational solar wind prediction system transitioning fundamental science to operations

We present in this paper an operational solar wind prediction system. The system is an outcome of the collaborative efforts between scientists in research communities and forecasters at Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) in China. This system is mainly composed of three modules: (1) a photospheric magnetic field extrapolation module, along with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical method, to obtain the background solar wind speed and the magnetic field strength on the source surface; (2) a modified Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) kinematic module for simulating the propagation of solar wind structures in the interplanetary space; and (3) a coronal mass ejection (CME) detection module, which derives CME parameters using the ice-cream cone model based on coronagraph images. By bridging the gap between fundamental science and operational requirements, our system is finally capable of predicting solar wind conditions near Earth, especially the arrival times of the co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) and CMEs. Our test against historical solar wind data from 2007 to 2016 shows that the hit rate (HR) of the high-speed enhancements (HSEs) is 0.60 and the false alarm rate (FAR) is 0.30. The mean error (ME) and the mean absolute error (MAE) of the maximum speed for the same period are −73.9 km s−1 and 101.2 km s−1, respectively. Meanwhile, the ME and MAE of the arrival time of the maximum speed are 0.15 days and 1.27 days, respectively. There are 25 CMEs simulated and the MAE of the arrival time is 18.0 h.

Evaluation of a Revised Interplanetary Shock Prediction Model: 1D CESE-HD-2 Solar-Wind Model

We modified the one-dimensional conservation element and solution element (CESE) hydrodynamic (HD) model into a new version [1D CESE-HD-2], by considering the direction of the shock propagation. The real-time performance of the 1D CESE-HD-2 model during Solar Cycle 23 (February 1997 – December 2006) is investigated and compared with those of the Shock Time of Arrival Model (STOA), the Interplanetary-Shock-Propagation Model (ISPM), and the Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2 (HAFv.2). Of the total of 584 flare events, 173 occurred during the rising phase, 166 events during the maximum phase, and 245 events during the declining phase. The statistical results show that the success rates of the predictions by the 1D CESE-HD-2 model for the rising, maximum, declining, and composite periods are 64 %, 62 %, 57 %, and 61 %, respectively, with a hit window of ± 24 hours. The results demonstrate that the 1D CESE-HD-2 model shows the highest success rates when the background solar-wind speed is relatively fast. Thus, when the background solar-wind speed at the time of shock initiation is enhanced, the forecasts will provide potential values to the customers. A high value (27.08) of χ 2 and low p-value (< 0.0001) for the 1D CESE-HD-2 model give considerable confidence for real-time forecasts by using this new model. Furthermore, the effects of various shock characteristics (initial speed, shock duration, background solar wind, longitude, etc.) and background solar wind on the forecast are also investigated statistically.

Simulated (STEREO) Views of the Solar Wind Disturbances Following the Coronal Mass Ejections of 1 August 2010

Images observed by the twin spacecraft Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) A and B appear as complex structures for two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on 1 August 2010. Therefore, a series of sky maps of Thomson-scattered white light by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) on 1 August 2010 are simulated using the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) three-dimensional solar-wind model. A comparison between the simulated images and observations of STEREO-A and -B clarifies the structure and evolution of ICMEs (including shocks) in the observed images. The results demonstrate that the simulated images from the HAF model are very useful in the interpretation of the observed images when the ICMEs overlap within the fields of view of the instruments onboard STEREO-A and -B.

A statistical study of the performance of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 numerical model in predicting solar shock arrival times at Earth during different phases of solar cycle 23

Abstract. The performance of the Hakamada Akasofu-Fry, version 2 (HAFv.2) numerical model, which provides predictions of solar shock arrival times at Earth, was subjected to a statistical study to investigate those solar/interplanetary circumstances under which the model performed well/poorly during key phases (rise/maximum/decay) of solar cycle 23. In addition to analyzing elements of the overall data set (584 selected events) associated with particular cycle phases, subsets were formed such that those events making up a particular sub-set showed common characteristics. The statistical significance of the results obtained using the various sets/subsets was generally very low and these results were not significant as compared with the hit by chance rate (50%). This implies a low level of confidence in the predictions of the model with no compelling result encouraging its use. However, the data suggested that the success rates of HAFv.2 were higher when the background solar wind speed at the time of shock initiation was relatively fast. Thus, in scenarios where the background solar wind speed is elevated and the calculated success rate significantly exceeds the rate by chance, the forecasts could provide potential value to the customer. With the composite statistics available for solar cycle 23, the calculated success rate at high solar wind speed, although clearly above 50%, was indicative rather than conclusive. The RMS error estimated for shock arrival times for every cycle phase and for the composite sample was in each case significantly better than would be expected for a random data set. Also, the parameter "Probability of Detection, yes" (PODy) which presents the Proportion of Yes observations that were correctly forecast (i.e. the ratio between the shocks correctly predicted and all the shocks observed), yielded values for the rise/maximum/decay phases of the cycle and using the composite sample of 0.85, 0.64, 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. The statistical results obtained through detailed analysis of the available data provided insights into how changing circumstances on the Sun and in interplanetary space can affect the performance of the model. Since shock arrival predictions are widely utilized in making commercially significant decisions re. protecting space assets, the present detailed archival studies can be useful in future operational decision making during solar cycle 24. It would be of added value in this context to use Briggs-Rupert methodology to estimate the cost to an operator of acting on an incorrect forecast.

Influence of the Initial Shock Speed Excited by Solar Flares on Shock Arrival Time Prediction

AbstractBy using the Hakamada‐Akasofu‐Fry (HAF) solar wind model, we simulated 48 solar flare events during Carrington Rotation 1981 to 1985 and compared the simulated shock arrival time with observations by satellites at 1 AU. It is found that the initial solar wind shock speed deduced from the metric Type II radio burst observations plays an important role in the shock arrival time prediction. The match between predicted and observed shock arrival times (SATs) was considerably improved by iteratively adjusting the initial shock speed. We obtained the adjustment factors as the function of the initial shock speed for different hemispheres by using the statistical analysis and applied them to adjust the initial shock speed driven by the solar flares which occurred in the following five Carrington rotations (1986~1990), and the mean absolute error of the shock arrival time was reduced from 16 (15) hours to 12 (11) hours for the flare occurred on the western (eastern) hemisphere. This indicates that significant improvements can be made for the shock arrival time prediction by adjusting the initial shock speed using the statistical functions.

A comparative verification of forecasts from two operational solar wind models

[1] The solar wind (SW) and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have a significant influence on the near-Earth space environment. In this study we evaluate and compare forecasts from two models that predict SW and IMF conditions: the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) version 2, operational at the Air Force Weather Agency, and Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) version 1.6, executed routinely at the Space Weather Prediction Center. SW speed (Vsw) and IMF polarity (Bpol) forecasts at L1 were compared with Wind and Advanced Composition Explorer satellite observations. Verification statistics were computed by study year and forecast day. Results revealed that both models' mean Vsw are slower than observed. The HAF slow bias increases with forecast duration. WSA had lower Vsw forecast-observation difference (F-O) absolute means and standard deviations than HAF. HAF and WSA Vsw forecast standard deviations were less than observed. Vsw F-O mean square skill rarely exceeds that of recurrence forecasts. Bpol is correctly predicted 65%–85% of the time in both models. Recurrence beats the models in Bpol skill in nearly every year forecast day category. Verification by “event” (flare events ≤5 days before forecast start) and “nonevent” (no flares) forecasts showed that most HAF Vsw bias growth, F-O standard deviation decrease, and forecast standard deviation decrease were due to the event forecasts. Analysis of single time step Vsw increases of ≥20% in the nonevent forecasts indicated that both models predicted too many occurrences and missed many observed incidences. Neither model had skill above a random guess in predicting Vsw increase arrival time at L1.

Statistical analysis of corotating interaction regions and their geoeffectiveness during solar cycle 23

This is an investigation of the effects of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere (&lt;1 AU) on geomagnetic disturbances during solar cycle 23 (1996–2005). Three kinds of interplanetary structures, “pure” CIR, interaction of CIR with ICME, and “pure” ICME by transient events, are identified by using the Hakamada‐Akasofu‐Fry (HAF) solar wind model. Yearly occurrence of 157 “pure” CIRs has a minimum value in 2001 and a peak value in 2003 at the declining phase during the 23rd solar cycle. The maximum correlation coefficient of the daily sum of Kp indices between consecutive Carrington Rotations indicates that recurrent geomagnetic disturbances are dominant during the declining phase near solar minimum. Eighty percent of storms that are related to “pure” CIRs belong to weak and moderate storms. The statistical analysis shows that about 50% of CIRs produce classical interplanetary shocks during the descending phase and 89% of the CIR‐related shocks are followed by geomagnetic storms. These results demonstrate that CIR‐related shock is not a necessary condition for generating a magnetic storm, but most CIR‐related shocks are related to a storm. The Dst index that corresponds to CIR‐related storms has a better linear relationship with IMF Bz, Ey, and the coupling function (ɛ) when the Dst indices are higher than −100 nT. Finally, the geoeffectiveness of CIRs appears clearly to have a seasonal variation.

International Standards Will Enhance Space Weather Management

In the decade since the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) Implementation Plan (see http://www.nswp.gov/images/nswpip2000.pdf) was drafted and then published (2000), and the NSWP Assessment Committee produced its 2006 follow-on report (http://www.nswp.gov/nswp_acreport0706.pdf), an updated vision has been needed to guide our nation's space environment activities as the decade near solar maximum begins. This vision must include two parts: placing space weather management at the forefront of activities to go beyond the ongoing specification and prediction efforts, and working to create international space environment standards so that space activities are conducted with safety, efficiency, and the maximization of space commercialization.

Real-time solar wind forecasting: Capabilities and challenges

A user-friendly, real-time, observation-driven system for forecasting solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions is described. The forecast system presently uses the Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry (version 2) kinematic solar wind model to predict, in real-time, solar wind conditions in the heliosphere, including at the location of Mars, and beyond. Properly characterizing and predicting this region of the space environment are essential steps towards improving the accuracy of “downstream” space weather models used to forecast the space radiation environment and geomagnetic activity. Representative modeling results are presented and the conclusion is made that uncertainty in determining the physical parameters needed for model inputs from real-time solar observations is the biggest factor limiting the accuracy of solar wind models used for space weather analysis and prediction. Future directions include extending the forecast system via a hybrid approach to include 3D MHD modeling.

Three-dimensional global simulation of multiple ICMEs’ interaction and propagation from the Sun to the heliosphere following the 25–28 October 2003 solar events

This study performs simulations of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) propagation in a realistic three-dimensional (3D) solar wind structure from the Sun to the Earth by using the newly developed hybrid code, HAFv.2+3DMHD. This model combines two simulation codes, Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry code version 2 (HAFv.2) and a fully 3D, time-dependent MHD simulation code. The solar wind structure is simulated out to 0.08 AU (18 Rs) from source surface maps using the HAFv.2 code. The outputs at 0.08 AU are then used to provide inputs for the lower boundary, at that location, of the 3D MHD code to calculate solar wind and its evolution to 1 AU and beyond. A dynamic disturbance, mimicking a particular flare’s energy output, is delivered to this non-uniform structure to model the evolution and interplanetary propagation of ICMEs (including their shocks). We then show the interaction between two ICMEs and the dynamic process during the overtaking of one shock by the other. The results show that both CMEs and heliosphere current sheet/plasma sheet were deformed by interacting with each other.

Forecasting solar wind structures and shock arrival times using an ensemble of models

Forecasting the time of arrival at Earth of interplanetary shocks following solar metric type II activity is an important first step in the establishment of an operational space weather prediction system. The quality of the forecasts is of utmost importance. The performances of the shock time of arrival (STOA) and interplanetary shock propagation models (ISPM) were previously evaluated by Smith et al. [2000] for 36 solar events. Here we use 173 solar events between February 1997 and October 2000 to set thresholds for the Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2 (HAFv.2) model and then present the results of a comparison of the performance of this model to the STOA and ISPM solar wind models. Each model predicts shock arrival time (SAT) at the Earth using real‐time metric type II radio frequency drifts and coincident X‐ray and optical data for input and L1 satellite observations for verification. Our evaluation of input parameters to the models showed that the accuracy of the solar metric type II radio burst observations as a measure of the initial shock velocity was compromised for those events at greater than 20° solar longitude from central meridian. The HAF model also calculates the interplanetary shock propagation imbedded in a realistic solar wind structure through which the shocks travel and interact. Standard meteorological forecast metrics are used. A variety of statistical comparisons among the three models show them to be practically equivalent in forecasting SAT. Although the HAF kinematic model performance compares favorably with ISPM and STOA, it appears to be no better at predicting SAT than ISPM or STOA. HAFv.2 takes the inhomogeneous, ambient solar wind structure into account and thereby provides a means of sorting event‐driven shock arrivals from corotating interaction region (CIR) passage.

Improvements to the HAF solar wind model for space weather predictions

We have assembled and tested, in real time, a space weather modeling system that starts at the Sun and extends to the Earth through a set of coupled, modular components. We describe recent efforts to improve the Hakamada‐Akasofu‐Fry (HAF) solar wind model that is presently used in our geomagnetic storm prediction system. We also present some results of these improvement efforts. In a related paper, Akasofu [2001] discusses the results of the first 2 decades using this system as a research tool and for space weather predictions. One key goal of our efforts is to provide quantitative forecasts of geoeffective solar wind conditions at the L1 satellite point and at Earth. Notably, we are addressing a key problem for space weather research: the prediction of the north‐south component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field. This parameter is important for the transfer of energy from the solar wind to the terrestrial environment that results in space weather impacts upon society. We describe internal improvements, the incorporation of timely and accurate boundary conditions based upon solar observations, and the prediction of solar wind speed, density, magnetic field, and dynamic pressure. HAF model predictions of shock arrival time at the L1 satellite location are compared with the prediction skill of the two operational shock propagation models: the interplanetary shock propagation model (ISPM) and the shock‐time‐of‐arrival (STOA) model. We also show model simulations of shock propagation compared with interplanetary scintillation observations. Our modeling results provide a new appreciation of the importance of accurately characterizing event drivers and for the influences of the background heliospheric plasma on propagating interplanetary disturbances.

Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain.