HadGEM2-ES Model Research Articles

Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Using SWAT Model

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied in this study to simulate stream-flow in the Oyun River Basin. The model was calibrated and validated using monthly stream-flow data for the basin. Model performance was satisfactory for calibration and validation with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.69 and 0.88, respectively. Climate change impact on Oyun River was assessed by driving the SWAT model with climate parameters obtained from two global climate models (HadGEM2-ES and BCC-CCSM1-1M) based on RCP 2.6 for 2050 – 2059 and 2080 – 2089 periods. With respect to a baseline period of 2000 – 2009, HadGEM2-ES predicted a 4.62% decrease in total stream-flow while the BCC-CSM1-1M predicted stream-flow increase by 6.18% for the 2050 – 2059 period. However, both HadGEM2-ES and BCC-CCSM1-1M predicted stream-flow to increase by 18.92% and 11.25% respectively for the 2080 period. The HadGEM2-ES model showed consistency in relating future rainfall predictions with future discharge trends for the periods under study. Model results show the need for adaptive measures to mitigate climate change impacts on the water resource system.

Impact of climate change on net primary production (NPP) in south Iran.

Climate change is a natural hazard which threatens the sustainable development of human health, food security, economic well-being, and natural resources. It also affects photosynthesis, plant respiration, and decomposition of organic matter that contribute to atmospheric carbon flow. The net primary production (NPP) is one of the main components of carbon balance. This study investigated the impact of climatic change on the net production in the Hormozgan county in south Iran. To obtain NPP, MODIS NPP product (MOD17A3) was used and future temperature and precipitation values were obtained using the HadGEM2-ES model under the RCP4.5 scenario. These values were downscaled using the LARSWG 6 statistical model, and precipitation and temperature were simulated for the RCP4.5 scenario. For further analysis, NPP was simulated based on the BIOME-BGC model and compared with the NPP data obtained from the MODIS images. Comparison of the climatic parameters of the basic (2001-2015) and future (2016-2030) periods indicated an increase in precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature of the study area and subsequently an increase in the NPP value in all biomes (averagely 17.73%) in the future. The highest NPP values were observed in the central and western parts of the region in biomes 4 (mangrove forest cover), 10 (broadleaf forest vegetation), and 6, 5, and 1 (rangeland vegetation), respectively, and the lowest values were observed in the eastern parts. Results showed that the increase in future NPP could be due to the increase in precipitation.

Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes over Shaanxi Province, China, in the 21st Century

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming, will have a pernicious influence on society. It would be desirable to understand how they will evolve in the future as global warming becomes more serious with time. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the changing characteristics of the precipitation extremes in the 21st century over Shaanxi Province, a climate-sensitive and environmentally fragile area located in the east of northwestern China, based on a consecutive simulation of the 21st century conducted by the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES at high resolution under middle emission scenario of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Basic validation of the model performance was carried out, and six extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were used to assess the intensity and frequency of the extreme precipitation events over Shaanxi Province. The results show that RegCM4 reproduces the observed characteristics of extreme precipitation events over Shaanxi Province well. Overall for the domain, the EPIs excluding consecutive dry days (CDD) have a growing tendency during 1980–2098 although they exhibit spatial variability over Shaanxi Province. Some areas in the arid northern Shaanxi may have more heavy rainfalls by the middle of the 21st century but less wet extreme events by the end of the 21st century. And the humid central and southern regions would suffer more precipitation-related natural hazards in the future.

Drought assessment of southwestern China based on HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario

This paper analyzed the drought situation in southwestern China with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on multiple time scales. The spatial distribution, seasonal variation and features of drought in southwestern China were examined separately by drought frequency, probability of non-exceedance and runs theory. The results showed that the precipitation sequence will change suddenly near 2073 and an obvious, long-term drought will occur after 2073 due to the decline in precipitation. The spatial distribution of drought frequency indicated that the drought frequency will grow obviously in 2071–2100, and the growth rate will increase from the peripheral to the center of the region. The probability of non-exceedance for SPEI-1 less than − 1.0 will be 14.6% in the spring of 2011–2040, grow in 2041–2070 and reach 25.9% in 2071–2100, while that of SPEI in winter will gradually increase in all periods. When the SPEI-12 is smaller than − 1.0, the non-exceedance probability of the index in all seasons of 1981–2100 was and will be growing gradually, indicating that climate change has and will cause severe droughts in spring and winter from 1981 through 2100, especially the medium- and long-term drought. Through the analysis of the SPI and SPEI time sequences by runs theory, it is observed that the drought severity predicted by SPI-12 was and will be increasing over time, and the long-term drought will become more serious. On all time scales, if the SPEI is smaller than − 1.0, the drought duration will gradually increase from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100, indicating the drought in the study region will worsen due to climate change.

A hydrological modelling-based approach for vulnerable area identification under changing climate scenarios

AbstractThe hydrologic behaviour of the Brahmani River basin (BRB) (39,633.90 km2), India was assessed for the base period (1970–1999) and future climate scenarios (2050) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Monthly streamflow data of 2000–2009 and 2010–2012 was used for calibration and validation, respectively, and performed satisfactorily with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (ENS) of 0.52–0.55. The projected future climatic outcomes of the HadGEM2-ES model indicated that minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation may increase by 1.11–3.72 °C, 0.27–2.89 °C, and 16–263 mm, respectively, by 2050. The mean annual streamflow over the basin may increase by 20.86, 11.29, 4.45, and 37.94% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the sediment yield is likely to increase by 23.34, 10.53, 2.45, and 27.62% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, signifying RCP 8.5 to be the most adverse scenario for the BRB. Moreover, a ten-fold increase in environmental flow (defined as Q90) by the mid-century period is expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The vulnerable area assessment revealed that the increase in moderate and high erosion-prone regions will be more prevalent in the mid-century. The methodology developed herein could be successfully implemented for identification and prioritization of critical zones in worldwide river basins.

Future soil loss in highland Ethiopia under changing climate and land use

Soil erosion caused by climate and land-use changes is one of the biggest environmental challenges in highland Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess the future soil erosion risks and evaluate the potential conservation measures in the Rib watershed, northwestern highland Ethiopia. We used the HadGEM2-ES model with a moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration scenario (RCP4.5) to project the future climate. The future land-use patterns were predicted using the CA-Markov model. We integrated the RUSLE model with GIS to estimate the spatial distribution of soil loss and identify erosion risk areas. We found that the Rib watershed is highly vulnerable to future climate and land-use changes, leading to a high soil erosion risk. Despite slight growth of forest cover during the study period, the total soil loss for the watershed was estimated to be 7.93 × 106 t year−1 in 2017 and was predicted to increase to 9.75 × 106 t year−1 in 2050, an increase of about 23%. The increase in forest cover was due to the expansion of the area of eucalyptus plantations which are more prone to erosion. Moreover, field survey showed that the residual native forests are sparsely vegetated and mostly used for cattle grazing, increasing the erosion risk even more. In contrast, the combined use of afforestation with native trees and physical soil conservation measures in the upper areas of the catchment could decrease soil loss by 62%. Our results stress the importance of combining soil conservation measures, including converting eucalyptus plantations to native forests, to mitigate the effects of future climate change and increased agricultural production on soil erosion.

The impacts of climate change based on regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) projections (case study: Ilam province)

The climate change is one of the most important challenges facing the environment. In this study, climate change by air temperature and precipitation parameters is evaluated and compared for observational and future data. For the baseline period (1981–2016) and for future (2020–2080) detemined. To estimate future data, utilized the CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-ES models output the global climate models (GCMs) from the MarksimGCM database and the CNRM-CERFACS and MIROC-ESM models as regional climate models (RCMs) from the CORDEX project for the domain of south Asia is based on the representation concentration pathway RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios were considered. The results showed that is an increasing and decreasing trend for air temperature and precipitation in the baseline period, respectively. The validation of the models showed that the CNRM-CM5 model as a GCM model and the CNRM-CERFACS model as an RCM model have a higher performance in simulating climate change for study area. In fact, output of these models have close relation to the observed data. Evaluation of the temperature components (minimum and maximum temperatures) showed these components had an increasing trend in the baseline period and would have an upward deviation in the future. With respect to the changes in air temperature, precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (Eto) for the future, the status of water resources in the study area will decline significantly. Therefore, the effects of climate change are significant for the study area, which need to consider adaptive strategies such as; optimal water management, cropping pattern and resource management.

Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change-Implications for Bavarian protected areas.

AimDue to their longevity and structure, forest ecosystems are particularly affected by climate change with consequences for their biodiversity, functioning, and services to mankind. In the European Union (EU), natural and seminatural forests are protected by the Habitats Directive and the Natura 2000 network. This study aimed to assess the exposure of three legally defined forest habitat types to climate change, namely (a) Tilio‐Acerion forests of slopes, screes, and ravines (9180*), (b) bog woodlands (91D0*), and (c) alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0*). We analyzed possible changes in their Bavarian distribution, including their potential future coverage by Natura 2000 sites. We hypothesized that protected areas (PAs) with larger elevational ranges will remain suitable for the forests as they allow for altitudinal distribution shifts.MethodsTo estimate changes in range size and coverage by PAs, we combined correlative species distribution models (SDMs) with spatial analyses. Ensembles of SDM‐algorithms were applied to two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the HadGEM2‐ES model for the period 2061–2080.ResultsOur results revealed that bog woodlands experience the highest range losses (>2/3) and lowest PA coverage (max. 15% of sites with suitable conditions). Tilio‐Acerion forests exhibit opposing trends depending on the scenario, while alluvial forests are less exposed to climatic changes. As expected, the impacts of climate change are more pronounced under the “business as usual” scenario (RCP8.5). Additionally, PAs in flat landscapes are more likely to lose environmental suitability for currently established forest habitat types.Main conclusionsBased on these findings, we advocate the expansion of the Natura 2000 network particularly in consideration of elevational gradients, connectivity, and projected climatic suitability. Nonclimatic stressors on forest ecosystems, especially bog woodlands, should be decreased and climate change mitigation efforts enhanced. We recommend transferring the approach to other habitat types and regions.

Changes in the North Pacific Current divergence and California Current transport based on HadGEM2-ES CMIP5 projections to the end of the century

This study aims to evaluate the potential changes to the strength of the North Pacific Current (NPC) and its position of divergence, which would alter the variability of the Alaska (AC) and California (CC) currents throughout the century. For this, the volume transports of these currents were evaluated using the historical CMIP5 and RCP4.5 experimental results of the HadGEM2-ES model from 1985 to 2100. In general, the NPC will migrate to the north, in accord to the northwestward expansion of North Pacific High, which would alter the positioning and the amount of flow entering the AC and CC systems by 2100. Along with the bifurcation shift, changes in the two main modes of variability, i.e., the bifurcation and breathing modes, are expected. The bifurcation mode will become responsible for only 11% of the total variability while presenting a positive anomaly throughout the century. These results indicate the role of NPC migration on the southward transport of enriched waters and the possible impact on the primary productivity along the North American coast.

Performance evaluation of AR5-CMIP5 models for the representation of seasonal and multi-annual variability of precipitation in Brazilian hydropower sector basins under RCP8.5 scenario

ABSTRACTRepresentations of precipitation from CMIP5 models over the 1950–1999 period in hydrographic basins that are relevant to the Brazilian electricity sector are evaluated in this study. The majority of ensemble members adequately represented seasonal variability, although they differed about the patterns of high-frequency interannual variation. The models did not adequately represent seasonal-scale precipitation in the southern region of Brazil. Relative to other models, the CNRM_CM5 and HadGEM2-ES models demonstrated good seasonal and interannual representation over most basins, while the global CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL_CM5A-LR models demonstrated relatively poor performance. The models concur on the impact of the RCP8.5 scenario in the Southeast/Midwest and South sectors over the period 2015–2044, suggesting that precipitation will decrease up to 15% in the basin supplying the Furnas hydropower plant and by 12% in the basin supplying the Itaipú plant, which represents 25% of the hydroelectric production in Brazil.

Climate Predictions for Ludhiana District of Indian Punjab under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5

Climate change poses significant threats to global food security and water resources. In a present study, a Global Climate Model HAD GEM2-ES under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 was used for climate prediction study. The study spanned 46 years of baseline (1970-2015) as well as two future periods’ mid-century (MC) (2020-2050) and end century EC (2060-2090). The results showed that the temperature would increase by 1.56°C and rainfall would decrease by 98 mm in MC (2020-2050); and 3.11°C and 90 mm in EC (2060-2090), respectively under RCP 4.5. In RCP 8.5 the increase in temperature and rainfall was 2.75°C and 153 mm, respectively in MC and the corresponding values in EC was 5.46°C and 251 mm, respectively.

Distribution dynamics of Picea chihuahuana Martínez populations under different climate change scenarios in Mexico

ObjectivesSpecies with a restricted distribution in isolated populations are the most threatened under climate change. Chihuahua spruce (Picea chihuahuana Martínez) is one of those species. The analyses of past and present environmental conditions where these species have occurred allow us to understand the dynamics of their distribution. Therefore, projecting the results to the future under different climatic scenarios provides a basis for conservation purposes. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of climatic variables on the availability of suitable habitat for P. chihuahuana under paleoclimatic, current and future scenarios. MethodsPaleoclimate data for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM ∼ 22,000 years BP), Holocene Medium (HM ∼ 6000 years BP) and climatic data from the 1950–2000 periods were derived from CCSM4 and MIROC-ES models. Carbon dioxide concentration for 2050 and 2070 were derived from CCSM4 y HadGEM2-ES models under four levels of forcing. Data for the different time periods was subjected to the MaxEnt program. ResultsThe species distribution models showed a good fit with values of AUC> 0.99 for all time periods. Since the LGM, the potential habitat for P. chihuahuana has been declining, most likely due to global warming. Currently, human activities have exacerbated this decline. Climatic variables that most contributed to the models of suitable habitat were the lowest temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), the precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), and the annual average temperature (Bio 1). Future scenarios predict a reduction of suitable habitat for P. chihuahuana, or even its disappearance. ConclusionsProjections into the future locate possible micro refuges under some climatic change scenarios; however, under the highest atmospheric greenhouse gases scenario, suitable habitats for this species will disappear. Depending upon the response by humans to mitigate climatic change, P. chihuahuana may persist longer in those micro refuges, either naturally or with assisted transplanting. On the other hand, if there are no actions to reduce GHG, it is futile to develop conservation programs because there will be no suitable habitat for this species, and it will become extinct.

Land suitability levels for rainfed maize under current conditions and climate change projections in Mexico

An assessment of land suitability classes for rainfed maize (spring–summer agricultural cycle) with current climate conditions (1950–2000) and projected climate change scenarios was carried out for Mexico. The method considered the most restrictive factors or agroclimatic requirements from different variables needed by rainfed maize. These factors were analyzed spatially in a geographic information systems (GIS) context, resulting in areas classified into four suitability levels: high, medium, low, and not suitable for maize. We considered two general circulation models (GCM): HADGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR; one radiative forcing concentration representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 Wm−2 and the far period (2075–2099). Results at a national-level analysis showed that under actual conditions, 57.5% of the area of Mexico presents some level of suitability for rainfed maize. The high suitability class is 11.4% of the country, while 20.7% and 25.3% had medium and low suitability levels, respectively. Other results showed that with the HADGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR projections of climate change models, 50.4% and 46.7%, of Mexico’s continental area, respectively, present some level of suitability for the rainfed maize crop. In the first case, with respect to the present climate conditions, the HADGEM2-ES model presented an area decrease of −2.4% and the MPI-ESM-LR model of −5.5% in the high suitability level for the rainfed maize crop. Results at a state-level analysis showed there are five states (Jalisco, Campeche, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Michoacán) in the interval of more than 50,000 km2 of surface with high and medium suitability levels, with a maximum extent change between the present to the projected climate conditions of −46% for the HADGEM2-ES and −57% for the MPI-ESM-LR. In general, the MPI-ESM-LR model showed the most adverse projected conditions for rainfed maize growth.

Impact of climate change on the blue water footprint of agriculture on a regional scale

Abstract In the case study of Tangshan city, Hebei Province, China, this paper analyzes the temporal change of the blue agricultural water footprint (WF) during 1991–2016 and discusses the applicability of different climate change models during 2017–2050. Results show effective rainfall, wind speed and maximum temperature are leading factors influencing the blue agricultural WF. Relative error analysis indicates that the HadGEM2-ES model is the most applicable for climate change projections in the period of 2017–2050. Agricultural blue WF is about 1.8 billion m3 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, which is almost equal to the average value during 1991–2016.

Hydrological Responses of Climate Change on Lake Ziway Catchment, Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

This study predicts future runoff conditions under changing climate using multi model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over Lake Ziway Catchment. The River system is located in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia which serves for wide range of socio-economic activity, but recently different water use sectors are increasing their pressure on the water balance of the catchment. Bias corrected precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data from three climate models HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-MK-3-6-0 and CCSM4 under representative concentration pathways RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 were used as input for the hydrologic model. A calibrated and validated HBV model is used to simulate the future inflow from Katar River and Meki River towards Lake Ziway. The result revealed that the maximum and minimum temperature increased under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios. However, precipitation showed a decreasing trend. The percentage change in monthly average precipitation showed extremes for HadGEM2-ES model which range between -51.19% during January 2050s and +23.15% during February 2080s under RCP 8.5. The model output showed an annual decrement in runoff depth on Katar River up to 19.45% during RCP 8.5 on CSIRO MK-3-6-0 model and maximum reduction was recorded for RCP 4.5 at 17.49% for CCSM4 model. Meki River has shown maximum annual reduction of 20.28% during 2080s on RCP 8.5 for HadGEM2-ES model and seasonally during Bulg maximum increment was recorded for the same model which ranges up to 10.23% on 2050s for RCP 4.5. However seasonal maximum reduction is obtained from Bulg season by 40.27% on HadGEM2-ES model during 2050s. From the study, a reduction in rainfall has brought larger effects on runoff reduction than evapotranspiration components. Due to future reduction of River flow on the region optimal allocations for water use purposes at all levels of water resource development projects are crucial for future water planning and management.

Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabica coffee in southeast Brazil

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of global mean temperature rises are worrisome for coffee crop due to the intolerance of the Arabica species to high air temperature variations. The crop has a large participation in the Brazilian trade balance; therefore, in this study, the impacts of climate change on the potential yield of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) were assessed in the areas of Southeast Brazil in future climate change scenarios. Simulations of the Eta Regional Climate Model at 5-km resolution used in this study were generated from a second dynamic downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES model runs. The projections adopted two scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and considered the period 2011–2100. The projections indicated a large reduction of about 20 to 60% of the areas currently suitable for coffee cultivation in Southeast Brazil. In the RCP8.5 scenario, at the end of century, coffee cultivation is suitable only in elevated mountain areas, which would pose difficulties to farming management due to the operation of agricultural machinery in mountain areas. In addition, coffee cultivation in these regions could produce environmental impacts in the remnant Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Areas of high climatic risk increase due to temperature increase. The projections showed that the potential yield could be reduced by about 25% by the end of the twenty-first century. These results of potential coffee yield in the future climate indicate a need for adaptation studies of Arabica coffee cultivation.

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Water Resources in the Bandama Basin, Côte D’ivoire

This study aims to assess future trends in monthly rainfall and temperature and its impacts on surface and groundwater resources in the Bandama basin. The Bandama river is one of the four major rivers of Côte d’Ivoire. Historical data from 14 meteorological and three hydrological stations were used. Simulation results for future climate from HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate that the annual temperature may increase from 1.2 °C to 3 °C. These increases will be greater in the north than in the south of the basin. The monthly rainfall may decrease from December to April in the future. During this period, it is projected to decrease by 3% to 42% at all horizons under RCP 4.5 and by 5% to 47% under RCP 8.5. These variations will have cause an increase in surface and groundwater resources during the three periods (2006–2035; 2041–2060; 2066–2085) under the RCP 4.5 scenario. On the other side, these water resources may decrease for all horizons under RCP 8.5 in the Bandama basin.

Analysis of the water balance under regional scenarios of climate change for arid zones of Colombia

This work discusses in detail the parameters involved in water balance. The analysis is performed by considering the current conditions and climate change in a climatic zone that represents the arid regions of Colombia: The municipality of Uribia (desert) in the state of La Guajira. For this purpose, some climatological stations, which by their reported values of temperature and precipitation can be considered representative of the arid or desert climatic zones according to the Lang's index (PCP/Tavg), were selected. Then, with historical temperature and precipitation values registered at the station of the area, the baseline was built and its behavior analyzed. The station data were obtained from the database of the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (Institute of Hidrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies) of Colombia. After estimating the baseline scenarios, the current water balance on the site was calculated by taking into account the original variables and including new parameters, if necessary, for the calculation of the simplified continuity equation. The analysis included parameters such as potential and actual evapotranspiration, moisture of soil, storage or recharge and their changes, water deficit and excess, runoff, periods of recharge, and water use. Anomalies in temperatures (°C) and precipitation were calculated by taking into account the new climate scenarios “representative concentration pathways” for different periods (short-and long-term). With the anomalies identified, the baseline for the above-mentioned variables was adjusted. Again, the associated parameters were analyzed and discussed in the context of water balance. In climate change scenarios, the water balance projects a prospective exacerbation of desert conditions in the Uribia-Guajira region, since a decrease in the Lang's index from its current value of 18.7 (desert) to 17.0 in 2050 and 14.5 in 2070 is expected, as a consequence of a decrease in precipitation (2.4 and 11.0%) and an increase in annual temperature of about 1.7 °C with the HadGEM2-Es model for the period 2041-2060 and 3.7 °C with the GFDL-CM3 model for the period 2061-2080. This can be verified by means of the Thornthwaite climate classification, which categorizes the area of study as an arid zone with limited and no excess of water. This deficit could lead to serious environmental consequences, social problems and a decline in the industrial and agricultural productivity of the zone.

Efecto del cambio climático en la distribución potencial de HLB en sudamérica

El Huanglongbing (HLB), es la enfermedad de los cítricos más destructiva a nivel mundial, que en Sudamérica presenta una distribución restringida a algunos estados de Brasil. El objetivo del trabajo fue estimar los efectos del cambio climático en la distribución geográfica potencial de HLB en Sudamérica, mediante una técnica basada en el Análisis de Componentes Principales, que predice la aptitud ambiental de una especie a partir de la distancia euclidiana desde cualquier punto geográfico de Sudamérica hacia los sitios dónde HLB se ha establecido en Sudamérica. Para estimar los cambios en la distribución potencial de HLB ante un escenario de cambio climático, se consideró la Vía de Concentración Representativa 2,6, propuesta por el Quinto Informe de Evaluación del Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, generada por el modelo HadGEM2-ES, para las décadas de 2050 y 2070. A posteriori, se calculó el estadístico kappa de las capas resultantes contra una matriz de sitios con presencia de HLB en Brasil. Se utilizaron los softwares QGIS 2.12, IDRISI Selva e Infostat. El modelo estimó que los sitios con un elevado riesgo de establecimiento se distribuirían en el sur de Brasil, sudeste de Paraguay, región Noreste y zona oriental de la región Noroeste de Argentina y el centro-sur de Bolivia. Según las estimaciones del IPCC5, los efectos del cambio climático determinarían que a futuro, las áreas de elevado riesgo climático para el establecimiento de HLB, se desplazarían hacia el sudoeste de las áreas consideradas de mayor riesgo climático en la actualidad.

ENSO influence on La Plata Basin precipitation in the HadGEM2-ES model

ENSO influence on La Plata Basin precipitation in the HadGEM2-ES model