Climate Model HadCM3 Research Articles

Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns

Knowledge of the virtual water content (VWC) of crops and especially its possible future developments is helpful for improvements in water productivity and water management, which are necessary at global scale due to rising demand for food, the necessity to ease present and future water scarcity, and the reduction of poverty. Using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model (LPJmL), this study quantifies the VWC of two of the most important crop types worldwide, temperate cereals and maize, at high spatial resolution (0.5°). We analyzed present conditions (1999–2003) and also for the first time also for scenarios of future climate and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (2041–2070; HadCM3, ECHAM5 and CCSM3 climate models, A2 emissions scenario). VWC presently differs significantly among regions: highest values are common in large parts of Africa (>2 m3 kg−1), and lowest values were found e.g. for Central Europe (<0.5 m3 kg−1), indicating that water-use efficiency of crops is much higher in the latter region. The regional patterns of VWC result from complex and interactive processes; the dominant factor is the crop yield level (high VWC values occur most frequently in regions with low yields). Climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration will have non-uniform effects on crop yields and evapotranspiration. Worldwide VWC patterns will change significantly, with a pronounced regional pattern that reflects primarily the changes in yields as driven mainly by regionally decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Although globally the water-use efficiency is projected to increase, many regions—including parts of the US, East and Mediterranean Europe, South Africa, Argentina, Australia and South East Asia—are projected to become less water efficient (higher VWC) for at least one of the crop types. CO2 fertilisation was simulated to generally reduce VWC, though realisation of this effect in the field will depend, for example, on the intensity of nutrient management in the future. The potentially adverse future changes in VWC found here pose a challenge to water management efforts and eventually global trade policies.

Mass balance evolution of Martial Este Glacier, Tierra del Fuego (Argentina) for the period 1960–2099

Abstract. The Martial Este Glacier in southern Tierra del Fuego was studied in order to estimate the surface mass balance from 1960 until 2099. For this reason a degree-day model was calibrated. Air temperature and precipitation data obtained from 3 weather stations as well as glaciological measurements were applied. The model was driven using a vertical air temperature gradient of 0.69 K/100 m, a degree-day factor for snow of 4.7 mm w.e. K−1 day−1, a degree-day factor for ice of 9.4 mm w.e. K−1 day−1 and a precipitation gradient of 22%/100 m. For the purpose of surface mass balance reconstruction for the time period 1960 until 2006 a winter vertical air temperature gradient of 0.57 K/100 m and a summer vertical air temperature gradient of 0.71 K/100 m were added as well as a digital terrain model. The key finding is an almost continuous negative mass balance of −772 mm w.e. a−1 throughout this period. While the calculation of the mass balance for the period 1960–2006 is based on instrumental records, the mass balance for the years 2007 until 2099 was estimated based on the IPCC SRES A2-scenario. To accomplish this estimation, the dataset of the global climate model HadCM3 was statistically downscaled to fit local conditions at Martial Este Glacier. Subsequently, the downscaled air temperature and precipitation were applied to a volume-area scaling glacier change model. Findings reveal an enduring deglaciation resulting in a surface area reduction of nearly 93% until 2099. This implicates that the Martial Este Glacier might be melted off at the beginning of the 22nd century.

Geostrophic dynamics of meridional transport variability in the subpolar North Atlantic

The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is believed to play an important role in regulating the Earth's climate. Yet, there is still much uncertainty regarding the dynamics of the MOC and its variability. It is well established, however, that through geostrophy the zonally integrated meridional transport at a particular latitude and depth can be determined from the east‐west bottom pressure difference across the basin. Therefore, rather than consider the MOC as a large‐scale system, this paper focuses on the dynamics of this geostrophic relationship in two numerical ocean models at a single latitude (50°N) in the subpolar Atlantic. First, it is shown that the bottom pressure on the western boundary is sufficient to recover, with high fidelity, the interannual meridional transport variability at 50°N over a 100 year period in the climate model HadCM3. It is found that the variability of western boundary pressure is closely associated with density changes over the continental slope. These changes lead to a large zonal gradient in potential energy and imply an unfeasible depth‐mean velocity over the slope. The western boundary pressure, from which the meridional transport can be recovered, is generated as a compensation to this and limits the depth‐mean flow. This demonstrates that in numerical ocean models, at least, meridional transport variability is generated as a local response to density changes on the western slope. Whether this is a true representation of actual ocean variability is uncertain, but if it were, then meridional transport variability could largely be determined using only the density field on the western slope.

Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

Abstract Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation.

Estimating the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and baseflow in the upper Ssezibwa catchment, Uganda

The effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and baseflow in the upper Ssezibwa catchment, Uganda, are investigated. The study first examines historical data, which indeed reveal evidence of climate change based on trends observed in temperature and discharge. For the climate change study, the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is used to downscale future climate change scenarios, which were obtained from the UK HadCM3 climate model. The downscaled climate is used as input to the WetSpa hydrological model, a physically-distributed rainfall—runoff model, which was used to simulate the resulting hydrological changes. Downscaled climate shows an increase in precipitation in the wet seasons (March—May; October—December) ranging from 30% in the 2020s to over 100% in the 2080s. The corresponding rise in temperature ranges between 1 and 4°C. These changes are shown to give rise to intensification of the hydrological cycle. The mean annual daily baseflow for the current period of 157 mm/year (69% of discharge), is expected to increase by 20–80% between the 2020s and 2080s. The corresponding increase in recharge ranges from 20 to 100% from the current 245mm/year. The findings provide a basis for further research in the downscaling of climate data and sensitivity analysis for simulated hydrological changes in the catchment.

Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950–2099

BackgroundWinter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location's suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model).Methodology/Principal FindingsBased on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041–2060 and 2080–2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, “safe winter chill”, the 10% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50–75% by mid-21st century, and 90–100% by late century.Conclusions/SignificanceBoth chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21st century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.

Impact potentiel du changement climatique sur la distribution de l’Épicéa, du Sapin, du Hêtre et du Chêne sessile en France

There have been many studies all over the world that forecast the impact of global warming on vegetation but there is little information currently available to assess its consequences on French forests. The authors studied the range of four common species — spruce, fir, beech and sessile oak — so as to determine their ecology as accurately as possible and assess their sensitivity to global warming. Their range over the period from 1961-1990 was modelled and mapped for the whole of France using ecological variables that characterize climate, water supply, and soil nutrition. The models constructed predict effects from temperature, the water resource, waterlogging and the trophic level of soils that are consistent with empirical knowledge about these species. Changes in the probabilities of presence during the 21st century investigated by simulating the A2 and B2 scenarios of the HadCM3 climate model. Changes in climate as predicted by this model would lead to a decrease of the probabilities of presence for all four species initially in the first part of the 21st century at the outer limits of their ranges and then a very significant drop in most plains and medium altitude upland areas, even according to the most optimistic forecasts under scenario B2. The reduction in the forest surface areas that are favourable to the species investigated for the period 2070-2100 is estimated, depending on the scenario, to be between 92 % and 99 % for spruce, 80 % and 93 % for beech, 63 % and 83 % for fir and 43 % and 83 % for sessile oak. These forecasted changes are very significant in comparison with the current conditions that are favourable to the presence of these species for which edaphic variables act as a local filter within the overall climate envelope. The authors conclude by underscoring the value of these tools for identifying and mapping the most vulnerable areas so as to be in a position to track the behaviour of these species in these areas and determine the appropriate management measures.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heat-related mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heat-related mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2 degrees C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Fire risk in Amazonia due to climate change in the HadCM3 climate model: Potential interactions with deforestation

Deforestation in Amazonia seems likely to continue in the 21st century, and fire risk could increase as a result of global climate change. With deforestation activities providing a source of ignition, the combination of this with increased fire risk could lead to widespread impacts on Amazonian ecosystems. This would also contribute further to climate change through feedbacks on the global carbon cycle. This study uses the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index and an ensemble of variants of the HadCM3 climate model to simulate potential changes to fire risk in Amazonia over the 21st century. Significant increases in central and eastern Amazonia are simulated by 2020, and high fire danger for over 50% of the forest is simulated in all model runs by 2080. By 2080, as much as 25% of Amazonia shows high levels of agreement in projections of combined fire risk and deforestation. The areas simulated with high fire danger are also those projected to be impacted most significantly by deforestation. If the regional climate changes simulated for Amazonia by HadCM3 are realistic, the risk of significant forest damage could become high, and deforestation activities could, therefore, have a greater potential for impacting on wider areas of forest.

Simulating multiyear drought events in North America with the HadCM3 climate model

WeatherVolume 63, Issue 8 p. 240-243 Research Article Simulating multiyear drought events in North America with the HadCM3 climate model Simon J. Busby, Corresponding Author Simon J. Busby s.busby@uea.ac.uk Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, NorwichClimatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UKSearch for more papers by this author Simon J. Busby, Corresponding Author Simon J. Busby s.busby@uea.ac.uk Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, NorwichClimatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UKSearch for more papers by this author First published: 28 July 2008 https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.310Citations: 4AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume63, Issue8Special Issue: RMetS Student Conference 2007August 2008Pages 240-243 RelatedInformation

Future southern African summer rainfall variability related to a southwest Indian Ocean dipole in HadCM3

Southern Africa is subject to strong interannual summer rainfall extremes associated with modes of climate variability. Interaction between these modes and the climate change signal make improving understanding of their future operation and links with southern African rainfall a priority. This paper examines future southern African summer rainfall variability related to a meridional dipole mode of southwest Indian Ocean SST variability (the SWIOD) in coupled climate model HadCM3. The SWIOD is central to southern African rainfall in a 1000‐year control simulation, and remains so during the twenty‐first century under two different CO2 forcing scenarios: SRES A2 and B1. Future rainfall variability connected with this mode is found to be sensitive to the emissions pathway, particularly in the second half of the century. Flooding episodes with anomalies near 4 mm day−1 in already wet regions and which are unprecedented in a 1000 year control run are simulated under A2 SRES forcing.

Preferred structures in large‐scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3

AbstractPreferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100‐year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre‐industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1 × CO2) and in the second simulation the model is forced with doubled CO2 concentration (2 × CO2). Daily winter (December–January–February) surface pressures over the Northern Hemisphere are analysed. The identification of preferred patterns is addressed using multivariate mixture models. For the control simulation, two significant flow regimes are obtained at 5% and 2.5% significance levels within the state space spanned by the leading two principal components. They show a high pressure centre over the North Pacific/Aleutian Islands associated with a low pressure centre over the North Atlantic, and its reverse. For the 2 × CO2 simulation, no such behaviour is obtained. At higher‐dimensional state space, flow patterns are obtained from both simulations. They are found to be significant at the 1% level for the control simulation and at the 2.5% level for the 2 × CO2 simulation. Hence under CO2 doubling, regime behaviour in the large‐scale wave dynamics weakens. Doubling greenhouse gas concentration affects both the frequency of occurrence of regimes and also the pattern structures. The less frequent regime becomes amplified and the more frequent regime weakens. The largest change is observed over the Pacific where a significant deepening of the Aleutian low is obtained under CO2 doubling. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Assessing the impact of climate change on representative field crops in Israeli agriculture: a case study of wheat and cotton

Climate changes, associated with accumulation of greenhouse gases, are ex- pected to have a profound influence on agricultural sustainability in Israel, a semi-arid area characterized by a cold wet winter and a dry warm summer. Accordingly this study explored economic aspects of agricultural production under projected climate-change scenarios by the "production function" approach, as applied to two representative crops: wheat, as the major crop grown in Israel's dry southern region, and cotton, representing the more humid climate in the north. Adjusting outputs of the global climate model HadCM3 to the specific research locations, we generated projections for 2070-2100 temperatures and precipitations for two climate change scenarios. Results for wheat vary among climate scenarios; net revenues become negative under the severe scenario (change from �145 to �273%), but may increase under the moderate one (�43 to +35%), depending on nitrogen applied to the crop. Distribution of rain events was found to play a major role in determining yields. By contrast, under both scenarios cotton experiences a considerable decrease in yield with significant economic losses (�240 and �173% in A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively). Additional irrigation and nitrogen may reduce farming losses, unlike changes in seeding dates.

Spatial pattern recognition of extreme temperature climatology: assessing HadCM3 simulations via NCEP reanalyses over Europe

This article attempts to quantify the spatial uncertainties associated with extreme temperature’s response, by assessing data derived from climate model. This is undertaken by a comparison of the spatial pattern of a long-term time-series aggregation (1960/61-1989/90) for extreme temperatures simulated by a particular GCM (the UK Met Office - Hadley Centre climate model, HadCM3) to that of the USA NCAR NCEP Reanalyses, which are considered as ‘truth’, over the MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes - EU Project) spatial domain. Since evaluation of models is crucial to assessing future scenarios, the aim of this study is to investigate whether the extreme values predicted by the HadCM3 climate model can simulate those produced by NCEP Reanalyses, assuming that the extremes of both models are realizations of the same spatial stochastic process. To get more useful information about the uncertainties surrounding spatial climate projection, one also has to analyze the pattern of temperature extremes in terms of their anomalies. A common technical issue in the assessment of numerical spatial models is based on the Principal Components Analysis and Bayesian Classification for spatial pattern recognition. These methodologies are very important and useful for guiding an evolutionary statistical model-building process. This study leads to the conclusion that the HadCM3 Simulations do not realistically reproduce the NCEP Reanalyses, despite the fact that the climatology of extremes has demonstrated very similar spatial patterns. It is likely therefore that such instability may persist in the future.

The demise of Arctic sea ice during stabilisation at high greenhouse gas concentrations

A climate model experiment was conducted using the HadCM3 climate model and a scenario in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was increased over 70 years from pre-industrial concentrations to 4 times this level and then stabilised for more than a 1,000 years. During the period of stabilisation the global atmospheric surface temperatures continued to rise as the deep oceans adjusted towards a new equilibrium. However, even after 1,000 years this new equilibrium had not been reached. During the first 600 years, Arctic and Antarctic winter sea ice thickness and area covered declined with a significant impact on the global radiation budget. After this period the area of the Arctic covered by sea ice entered a 150 years period during which time it underwent a series of oscillations. Following the oscillation the centre of the Arctic basin became ice free throughout the year. A sensitivity experiment demonstrates that although the sea ice extent can be greatly reduced through the artificial heating of the mixed layer, prior to the onset of the oscillatory phase the ice recovers over 15 years. Understanding the causes of this oscillatory phase may elucidate the mechanisms of variability in the Arctic in the present climate and in future policy relevant scenarios. We have investigated the atmospheric and oceanic forcing on the ice during the oscillatory phase, and find that the behaviour is linked to a redistribution of Arctic Ocean heat stores.

Impact of instantaneous sea ice removal in a coupled general circulation model

The impact of extreme sea ice initial conditions on modelled climate is analysed for a fully coupled atmosphere ocean sea ice general circulation model, the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. A control run is chosen as reference experiment with greenhouse gas concentration fixed at pre‐industrial conditions. Sensitivity experiments show an almost complete recovery from total removal or strong increase of sea ice after four years. Thus, uncertainties in initial sea ice conditions seem to be unimportant for climate modelling on decadal or longer time scales. When the initial conditions of the ocean mixed layer were adjusted to ice‐free conditions, a few substantial differences remained for more than 15 model years. But these differences are clearly smaller than the uncertainty of the HadCM3 run and all the other 19 IPCC fourth assessment report climate model pre‐industrial runs. It is an important task to improve climate models in simulating the past sea ice variability to enable them to make reliable projections for the 21st century.

Testing a European winter surface temperature reconstruction in a surrogate climate

We evaluate the skill of a European winter surface air temperature reconstruction over the last 500 years using pseudoproxies obtained from the ECHO‐G and HadCM3 climate models. The emphasis is thereby on the effect of the reduction of available predictors back in time, an issue that has not yet been investigated in detail at continental and seasonal scale. It is found that the key factor in determining the reconstruction skill is the number of predictors and particularly their spatial distribution. However considering the usually insufficient spatial and temporal predictor availability in paleo‐reconstructions, the quality of the predictors becomes more important further back in time. Not surprisingly, the lowest reconstruction skill is found in the early period when the predictor network is reduced. Important differences between ECHO‐G and HadCM3‐based pseudoproxy reconstructions are discussed and implications for future analyses are presented.

Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A climate model perspective

Analyses of five transatlantic hydrographic sections suggest that the annual average Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was 30% weaker at the beginning of the 21st century compared to the late 1950s. We examine the simulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning in the climate model HadCM3. In both the control experiment and simulations of the 20th century, there is no significant trend in the overturning on the timescales of the observations and a change of 30% in the annual average overturning is very unusual. We use HadCM3 to highlight uncertainties associated with the method used to derive annual average overturning from the five observations. Assuming hydrographic sections to be representative of their respective years, inferring the flow field from density via geostrophy and using constant Ekman and Gulf Stream transport, all introduce uncertainties in both the mean and variability of the reconstructed overturning. Using monthly hydrographic fields rather than annual mean fields increases the variability of the estimated model meridional overturning circulation. Continuous monitoring of the overturning is needed to enable the interannual and seasonal variability to be understood better and to allow detection and attribution studies.

Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in the twenty-first century

We discuss climate impacts of a hypothetical shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (‘THC’) in the 2050s, using the climate model HadCM3. Previous studies have generally focussed on the effects on pre-industrial climate. Here we take into account increased greenhouse gas concentrations according to an IS92a emissions scenario. THC shutdown causes cooling of the Northern Hemisphere of -1.7˚C, locally stronger. Over western Europe cooling is strong enough for a return to pre-industrial conditions and a significant increase in the occurrence of frost and snow cover. Global warming restricts the increase in sea ice cover after THC shutdown. This lessens the amount of cooling over NW Europe, but increases it over North America, compared to pre-industrial shutdown. This reflects a non-linearity in the local temperature response to THC shutdown. Precipitation change after THC shutdown is generally opposite to that caused by global warming, except in western and southern Europe, where summer drying is enhanced, and in Central America and southeast Asia, where precipitation is also further reduced. Local rise in sea level after THC shutdown can be large along Atlantic coasts (pm; 25,cm), which would add to the rise caused by global warming. Potentially rapid THC shutdown adds to the range of uncertainty of projected future climate change.

Projected changes in the organic carbon stocks of cropland mineral soils of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070

AbstractIn this paper, we use the Rothamsted Carbon Model to estimate how cropland mineral soil carbon stocks are likely to change under future climate, and how agricultural management might influence these stocks in the future. The model was run for croplands occurring on mineral soils in European Russia and the Ukraine, representing 74 Mha of cropland in Russia and 31 Mha in the Ukraine. The model used climate data (1990–2070) from the HadCM3 climate model, forced by four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios representing various degrees of globalization and emphasis on economic vs. environmental considerations. Three land use scenarios were examined, business as usual (BAU) management, optimal management (OPT) to maximize profit, and soil sustainability (SUS) in which profit was maximized within the constraint that soil carbon must either remain stable or increase. Our findings suggest that soil organic carbon (SOC) will be lost under all climate scenarios, but less is lost under the climate scenarios where environmental considerations are placed higher than purely economic considerations (IPCC B1 and B2 scenarios) compared with the climate associated with emissions resulting from the global free market scenario (IPCC A1FI scenario). More SOC is lost towards the end of the study period. Optimal management is able to reduce this loss of SOC, by up to 44% compared with business as usual management. The soil sustainability scenario could be run only for a limited area, but in that area was shown to increase SOC stocks under three climate scenarios, compared with a loss of SOC under business as usual management in the same area. Improved agricultural soil management will have a significant role to play in the adaptation to, and mitigation of, climate change in this region. Further, our results suggest that this adaptation could be realized without damaging profitability for the farmers, a key criteria affecting whether optimal management can be achieved in reality.