Habitation Sites Research Articles

Understanding Ancient Human Subsistence through the Application of Organic Residue Analysis on Prehistoric Pottery Vessels from the Korean Peninsula

This study investigates prehistoric human subsistence and pottery use on the Korean peninsula through the organic residue analysis of archaeological potsherds. Ancient human subsistence is one of the core topics in Korean archaeology. However, due to the high acidity of sediments, which prevents the long-term preservation of organic remains, archaeologists have been short of critical information on how these early prehistoric dwellers lived. Ceramic vessels can contain well-preserved lipids originating from past culinary practices. For a better understanding of human subsistence on the prehistoric Korean peninsula, food-processing behaviors were reconstructed by analyzing ancient lipids extracted from a pottery matrix. The potsherd samples used in the analysis in this paper were collected from major prehistoric habitation sites. The results show that subsistence strategies differed according to both location and time period and reveal how organic residue analysis can contribute to a better understanding of prehistoric human subsistence strategies.

Faecal pellets, rock shelters, and seasonality: The chemistry of stabling in the Negev of Israel in late prehistory

Chemical and phytolith analyses of well-preserved goat faecal pellets from different strata of the Ramon I Rock Shelter, in the Makhtesh Ramon (Crater) in the Central Negev, Israel, show patterns of seasonal stabling and grazing among nomads from three different periods, the Late Neolithic, the Early Bronze Age, and recent times (ca. 1800 AD to date). Low faecal lignin and high protein in the ancient pellets, together with the high proportion of phytoliths from monocotyledons, but absence from grass inflorescences and seeds, reflect consumption of lush green herbage, with no browsing. In contrast, pellets from recent flocks indicate either foddering or later seasonal grazing. The chemistry of pellets collected from wild ibex grazing and browsing in spring through autumn corroborate the conclusion that ancient grazing, as reflected in the rock shelter materials, was early in the growing season. The morphometry of faecal pellets suggests that the goats were larger in the Early Bronze than in the Late Neolithic and Recent Periods. In general, the presence of rock shelter stabling spatially remote from habitation sites indicates seasonal social/economic fission, with specialized goatherds separating from the primary campsites for short periods as early as the Late Neolithic. A Near Infrared non-destructive calibration of protein in faecal pellets was implemented.

Jars of the jungle: A report on newly discovered and documented megalithic jar sites in Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Xieng Khouang and neighboring provinces in Central Laos are home to a vast megalithic landscape featuring large stone jars, discs, and imported boulders located in elevated positions. Sites were first noted in the late nineteenth century, with systematic recording commencing in the 1930s. Despite subsequent survey efforts and more recent excavations, many previously noted sites remain unconfirmed and others undiscovered, limiting our understanding of the geographic extent of the jar sites and the culture that created the jars. Here we present the results of a 2019 survey across Xieng Khouang Province which led to the documentation of 15 previously unreported megalithic sites and one potential habitation site. With the inclusion of the survey data, the Lao PDR Government database of jar sites will grow from 83 to 102, with 94 of the sites now geo-located.

The Palaeolithic cave of Kalamakia (Mani Peninsula), Greece: new insights on the palaeoenvironment using microvertebrates and mesowear analysis of ruminant teeth

In the present study, results from the examination of mammalian teeth from the cave of Kalamakia with modern techniques, as well as a qualitative overview of the microvertebrate and lithic material, are presented together with a revision of previous related work done for the site, in order to assess the palaeoenvironmental conditions in the area and the role they played in the Neanderthal's repeated occupation of the cave. Geometric morphometrics analyses performed on the first lower molars of Microtus spp. individuals revealed persistent populations of the subgenus Terricola, in which the presence of Microtus thomasi and Microtus subterraneus are continuous through the stratigraphic units. Mesowear analyses performed on ruminant teeth showed no significant variation in toothwear through time, except for relatively elevated levels of dietary abrasion for the more recent samples. The study of the lithics revealed that Neanderthals visited the cave in alternating short and more permanent episodes of occupation, with the human occupants exhibiting special concern for raw material economy, while exploiting poor raw materials for the construction of their tools. The overview of the microvertebrate remains showed a growing trend towards the upper stratigraphic units, where taxa typical of temperate climate, open woodland and shrubland become more dominant. These results, along with observations derived from previous studies, suggest that temperate climate and open environment were the factors that mainly contributed to making the cave of Kalamakia attractive as a habitation site to the humans of the area.

Ordering the land beyond the Sixth Cataract: Imperial policy, archaeology and the role of Henry Wellcome

AbstractThe Sudan occupies a fairly complex place in archaeological enquiry. This is not a result of the archaeological record, rather it is due to a particular perception of the Sudan, its archaeology and history. The first excavators were archaeologists and anatomists who either worked in Egypt or in the Mediterranean, while the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium encouraged white-only scholars to both conduct research and to be active members of the newly formed political service in order to ‘know the natives’. In other words, archaeology from the outset was intimately connected to a particular political narrative and aim. This paper traces the historical context from the early 20th century to the development of archaeology south of beyond the Sixth Cataract south of the present-day capital of Khartoum, showing how it was created by Henry Wellcome. In particular, it focuses on the vast mortuary and habitation site of Jebel Moya, south-central Sudan, where new fieldwork is yielding fruitful results. Henry Wellcome's contribution to archaeology remains under-acknowledged. This long-overdue critical assessment traces and contextualizes the historical trajectories at play and situates them within the broader historical archaeology context.

Exploring the Ecological Dimensions of Displacement in Núcleo Itariru (Serra do Mar State Park): An Ethnobotanical Study of Peasant/Landscape Relations in Brazil's Atlantic Forest

As a research focused in studies of conservation-induced displacement, ethnobiology has much to contribute towards generating more holistic understandings of the impacts of protected areas upon the lives of resource-dependent peoples around the globe. This paper presents the findings of a case study undertaken in Núcleo Itariru (Southern S ão Paulo state, Brazil), a unit of Serra do Mar State Park and the site of habitation for a population of approximately 700 peasants. Beginning in 2006, with the enactment of a new conservation initiative, peasants effectively became economically displaced, restricted from access to the natural resources upon which they base their lives and livelihoods. Utilizing ethnobotanical methods, in the form of a freelisting exercise and traveling herbarium survey, the study investigated local environmental knowledge systems as a means of evaluating the human/ landscape relationship in the locale. This paper highlights the value of such an approach for assessing the social and environmental dimensions of displacement, as a supplement to participant observation and ethnographic interviews, and for informing more sustainable conservation policies.

“The Place of Solemne Prayer”

Abstract Most traditional archaeological interpretations of life within late precontact period village sites in the Eastern Woodlands focus primarily on the domestic sphere or ritual activities associated solely with burial features. Yet, ethnohistorical studies reveal that both the domestic and ritual-ceremonial realms were tightly entangled in the lives of indigenous actors during the contact period. A recent reanalysis of a small enclosure and burial precinct at the White Fort site in northern Ohio presents new evidence of ceremonial use and reuse within a large habitation site during the late precontact period (ca. AD 1250–1400). Excavation data reveal how human interment, artifact caching, and layering of colored soils were incorporated in six pit burials arranged around a C-shaped post-and-ditch enclosure. The sequencing of interments and enclosure construction that composed this distinct area show that it served as a hub for burial and ritual behavior over multiple generations of seasonal village occupation.

Kela – A Middle Paleolithic flint extraction and reduction site in the northern Golan Heights

Flint-bearing Eocene outcrops are well known from west of the northern Jordan Rift Valley, appearing as a strip of land along the Eastern Galilee and extensively used by prehistoric knappers as a rich source of quality raw material. In this paper we report for the first time on the flint extraction and reduction site of Kela, located within an isolated Eocene limestone outcrop in the basalt terrain of the northwestern margins of the Golan Heights.Based on the analysis of flint items collected at the Kela extraction and reduction locality, we attribute the entire assemblage to the Middle Paleolithic period. Our conclusions are for the most part founded on the presence of numerous Levallois cores and on the absence of other cores and waste types. Our preliminary geochemical analysis tested possible links between the Kela extraction and reduction locality and prehistoric habitation sites in the region. Our finds show that Kela was a source of flint for the Middle Paleolithic knappers of the northern Golan Heights. These results contribute to our understanding of raw material exploitation strategies by prehistoric knappers in the northern Jordan Rift Valley and the Golan Heights.

Стратификация керамических комплексов неолита реки Конды

Purpose. Over the past 40 years, dozens of pit-houses, semi-dugouts, above-ground huts, hearth-like structures, and burial grounds have been investigated on the territory of the Konda River basin. Classification of cultural artifacts is based on stylistic attributes and distinctions of ceramics, while chronology rests on conventional 14C dating. At the present stage, one of the most important tasks is to develop the chronology and periodization of the Neolithic sites located in the Konda River basin. The starting point in the solution of this problem should be the multilayer stratified habitation sites. This paper presents the results of the investigation of Mulymya-3 settlement, which is one of such sites. Results. In 2019, early Neolithic stratified complexes were studied in Mulymya-3 settlement. The excavations of the early buildings revealed that among the predominant artifacts of flat-bottomed dishes, there also were layers of Shoushma and Sumpanya type pottery. The stroke-ornamented ware, i. e. flat-bottomed ceramic dishes with collars and rims, were classified as “Mulymya type pottery”. 14C dating of the soot from a flat-bottomed vessel suggested that the site was more or less continuously occupied between 6 690–6 500 cal. BC. Conclusion. The artifacts from Mulymya-3 settlement made it possible to shift the lower boundary of the Neolithic age in the Konda River basin to earlier dates. A typical feature of the earliest period (6 600 / 6 500 – 3 600 / 3 400 cal. BC) is Mulymya, Shoushma, and Umytinsky type pottery characterized by original traditions of ceramic production. The appearance of pottery in the second third of the 7th millennium BC did not affect the traditional economy of taiga societies. The stone-working technique was based on fracturing technologies (percussion flaking, pressure flaking, chipping, splintering), abrasive processing, and battering. In the 6th millennium BC, the people belonging to Shoushma and Umytinsky cultures started contacting with each other, which can be proved by dishes of both types found in the excavated pit-dwelling in similar stratigraphic conditions. Another proof is the appearance of mixed-looking pottery, in particular dishes of the Sumpanya type. From the end of the 6th millennium, the Shoushma pottery traditions were gradually degrading. From that time and until the turn of the 5th–4th millennia BC the Konda River basin was inhabited by the Umytinsky population. It is probable that those were the people who continued the tradition of making flat-bottomed dishes (Satyginsky / Boborykinsky type pottery).

Classification of buried soils, cultural, and colluvial deposits in the Viking town Hedeby

AbstractObjective classification of settlement deposits is a prerequisite for understanding human‐environment interactions at habitation sites. This paper presents a novel approach combining a relatively fine‐scale sampling strategy, a multimethod geoarchaeological investigation of cores and multivariate statistics to aid in the classification and interpretation of complex and intricately stratified archaeological deposits. Heterogeneous settlement deposits, buried soils, colluvial, fluvial, and fluvioglacial sediments from cores retrieved in the Viking settlement Hedeby were investigated using six cost‐effectively measurable geoecological parameters: loss on ignition at 550°C, magnetic susceptibility, contents of stones, artifacts, bones, and charcoal with wood. Principal component analysis allowed identifying variables that would sufficiently describe data and cluster analysis enabled the classification of the materials. As a result, 13 classes were distinguished with a detailed and reliable differentiation of materials of natural and cultural genesis. Based on spatial distribution patterns of the classes, hypotheses regarding land use in the adjacent areas were made: Waste disposal in the valley of Hedeby‐brook and metallurgic activities north of it. This approach is valuable for coring‐based research at settlements, in particular at tightly managed heritage sites, and for surveys to identify potential excavation sites, whereas the set of variables must be adjusted according to local conditions.

Espacios culturales alternativos: la Roma-Condesa en la Ciudad de México

Alternative cultural spaces are characterized as much by the way they gather cultural and creative activities, as by the fluid relationships among sites for habitation, work, and leisure. From these gatherings and relationships, spatial heterogeneous ways of belonging and identity coalesce into the area known as Roma-Condesa in the center of Mexico City. The theoretical possibilities of the concept and the results of a mixed methods model stemming from the testimonials of inhabitants in the area, the spatial localization of activities and creators, and the registry of their creative processes in the urban transition between the earthquakes of 1985 and 2017 are evaluated.

Assessing site organization and development using geophysical prospection at Dayatou, Gansu, China

Recent magnetometry survey at the late Neolithic site of Dayatou (大崖头) in the Tao River (洮河) Valley of Gansu Province, China, has revealed a complex, multiperiod habitation site made up of several discrete occupation clusters. While this site was previously interpreted as a large (~140,000 m2), primarily Majiayao (马家窑) period site, our geophysical survey, augering, and targeted excavation results point to the site containing several smaller (~8500 m2) areas of intense occupation separated by magnetically quieter zones in some areas and ditch features in others. The occupations appear to date to varying Majiayao subphases as well as subsequent periods. These results call into question the usefulness of site size rank hierarchies based on surface scatters of pottery alone, which are commonly used in studies of early complexity in China. This study demonstrates the usefulness of geophysical survey combined with targeted excavation for understanding the complex development processes at work in the formation of late Neolithic and early Bronze Age sites in northern China.

Entre La Pedrera y Araracuara: la arqueología del medio río Caquetá

La arqueología del medio río Caquetá, en la Amazonía colombiana, se conoció recién en los 1970s a partir de los resultados de proyectos de investigación pioneros en Araracuara y La Pedrera. Estas investigaciones identificaron secuencias cerámicas diferentes en cada localidad, documentaron una gran cantidad de petroglifos y, por primera vez, registraron suelos antrópicos negros y pardos en el Noroeste Amazónico. Investigaciones posteriores enfatizaron el estudio de archivos ambientales (arqueobotánicos y geoarqueológicos) y registraron ocupaciones pre-cerámicas del Holoceno temprano y medio. Ã?stas son particularmente importantes debido a que los datos arqueobotánicos asociados sugieren que las poblaciones de la región cultivaron tempranamente una variedad de plantas comestibles, varias de ellas domesticadas en otras regiones. Sin embargo, la arqueología del medio río Caquetá todavía presenta una serie de interrogantes importantes respecto de las ocupaciones del pre-cerámico y de los extensos sitios de habitación de grupos alfareros. Con respecto a estos últimos, es particularmente importante evaluar hasta qué punto estas ocupaciones se pueden enmarcar en las grandes tradiciones cerámicas conocidas para la Amazonía y la cuenca del Orinoco. En este artículo resumimos la información existente sobre la arqueología del medio río Caquetá y presentamos nuevos datos preliminares producidos en los últimos años, ello con el objetivo de evaluar el estado de nuestros conocimientos y fomentar el desarrollo de futuras investigaciones arqueológicas en la región.

Identifying strontium baselines and large game animal trade at Fremont sites through strontium isotope (87Sr/86Sr) analysis

Strontium isotope analysis can suggest which large game individuals were obtained locally by prehistoric hunters and which were brought to habitation sites through long-distance hunting or trade. This study explores the potential of using strontium isotope (87Sr/86Sr) analysis to determine whether the Fremont obtained some non-local large game at habitation sites. The Fremont were a diverse group of people who practiced hunting and horticulture from 500 to 1300 CE in what is now modern Utah. The transport of large game by Fremont hunters is examined at two sites: Five Finger Ridge in central Utah and Wolf Village in northern Utah. The results suggest that Fremont hunters obtained at least some large game individuals from areas away from their habitations, potentially through trade. The results of this study are regionally relevant for presenting previously unpublished results of strontium isotope analysis in Utah, a topic rarely explored. The research is also broadly relevant by showcasing potential complications with tracking prehistoric trade in locations with similar geology on a wide-scale, and dissimilar geology on a small-scale.

Identification of suitable human habitation sites through the river bank stability analysis on Ganga–Pagla interfluves area of West Bengal, India

One of the important geo-hazards associated with a river is bank erosion. In recent years the district of Malda has been facing ravages of this hazard by the continuous left bank erosion by the river Ganga. Although the entire district has witnessed rapid bank erosion, the village of Panchanandapur has become famous in terms of this hazard as it has been at the receiving end for a major proportion. This paper focuses on the topography and land use of this area so as to understand the probable causal mechanism and vulnerability of Panchanandapur. Bank Erosion Hazardous Index and Near Bank Stress have also been done for stability measurements of both banks. Besides analysing the spatial variation in the aforesaid parameters, we have also postulated the favourable sites for the growth of settlements based on information obtained from the analysis. DEM based study and field-based land use morphology indicates that the current location of Panchanandapur Village is highly vulnerable to bank erosion as well as water logging since it is located between the natural levees formed by the Ganga River and one of its major distributaries, the Pagla. Needless to state that the village is at a significant lower elevation than the levees of Ganga and Pagla. Furthermore, this study has pointed out that the current levee of the Pagla is currently ideally suited for settlement growth as it appears to be reasonably inert to bank erosion and water logging.

The habitation Model Trend Calculation (MTC): A new effective tool for predictive modeling in archaeology

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to create and present a new archaeological predictive model via GIS, incorporating what archaeologists consider the most important criterion absent of similar past models, that of critical thinking. The new model suggested in this paper is named habitation Model Trend Calculation (MTC) and is not only integrates the archaeological questions with a critical view, but it can be easily adjusted, according to the conditions or the questions concerning the archaeological community. Furthermore, it uses new topographical and geomorphological indexes such as Topographical Index (TPI), Hillslope and Landform Classification that give a new sense of the topographical and geomorphological characteristics of the examined area; therefore this model is a more powerful tool compared to older models that did not use new topographical and geomorphological indexes. The success of the created model is checked as a case study in the region of Messenia, Greece during the Mycenaean era. The region of Messenia is considered as one of the most important Mycenaean regions of Greece due to the great number and the importance of Mycenaean sites identified. For the present paper, 140 habitation sites were divided into four hierarchical categories (centers, large villages, villages, and farms) based on the extent and the plurality of the tholos tombs that exist in the broader region and according to the hierarchical categorization used by the archaeologists who have studied the area. The new predictive model presented in this work can assist in solving a series of criticisms that have been expressed in the previous studies regarding such models. Additionally, in the case of Mycenaean Messenia, the model shows excellent results in relation to the habitats of the time.

Quantifying spatial variability in shell midden formation in the Farasan Islands, Saudi Arabia.

During the past decade, over 3000 shell middens or shell matrix deposits have been discovered on the Farasan Islands in the southern Red Sea, dating to the period c. 7,360 to 4,700 years ago. Many of the sites are distributed along a palaeoshoreline which is now 2–3 m above present sea level. Others form clusters with some sites on the shoreline and others located inland over distances of c. 30 m to 1 km. We refer to these inland sites as ‘post-shore’ sites. Following Meehan, who observed a similar spatial separation in shell deposition in her ethnographic study of Anbarra shellgathering in the Northern Territory of Australia, we hypothesise that the shoreline sites are specialised sites for the processing or immediate consumption of shell food, and the post-shore sites are habitation sites used for a variety of activities. We test this proposition through a systematic analysis of 55 radiocarbon dates and measurement of shell quantities from the excavation of 15 shell matrix sites in a variety of locations including shoreline and post-shore sites. Our results demonstrate large differences in rates of shell accumulation between these two types of sites and selective removal of shoreline sites by changes in sea level. We also discuss the wider implications for understanding the differential preservation and visibility of shell-matrix deposits in coastal settings in other parts of the world extending back into the later Pleistocene in association with periods of lowersea level. Our results highlight the importance of taphonomic factors of post-depositional degradation and destruction, rates of shell accumulation, the influence on site location of factors other than shell food supply, and the relative distance of deposits from their nearest palaeoshorelines as key variables in the interpretation of shell quantities. Failure to take these variables into account when investigating shells and shell-matrix deposits in late Pleistocene and early Holocene contexts is likely to compromise interpretations of the role and significance of shell food in human evolutionary and socio-cultural development.

Remote sensing investigation of the Buddhist archaeological landscape around Sannati, India

In a country like India which has a long history of human occupancy and rich cultural heritage, identification of potential archaeological sites is essential before they get fully obliterated due to rapid urbanization, large-scale infrastructure development and mechanised agriculture activities. In this study, an important Buddhist site Sannati (which dates back to Maurya period, 3rd century BCE) and its surrounding, is investigated. Earlier investigations have uncovered a fortified mound, Vihara complex, habitation site and 3 stupa mounds in this region. The present study develops simple and cost-effective ways to identify potential buried archaeological sites and mounds using the knowledge of known sites and visual interpretation of remote sensing images of the region. This study has successfully located several archaeologically potential sites in the study area that now require archaeological investigation on ground. The developed approach can be applied to investigate other similar buried/undiscovered potential archaeological sites.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks in Ghana.

ObjectiveThe purpose of the study was to characterize the spatial distribution and temporal patterns of laboratory confirmed H5N1 outbreaks from January 2007 to December 2017 in Ghana.IntroductionHighly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 virus causes a highly contagious disease in poultry with up to 100% mortality and occasionally causes sporadic human infection. The first outbreak of HPAI H5N1 in Africa was reported in Nigeria in 2006 and has since been reported in seven other African countries with confirmed human cases and outbreaks in poultry. Since the emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), virus subtype H5N1 in Ghana in 2007, outbreaks in poultry have led to dire economic consequences for the poultry sector, resulting from mass destruction of affected flocks. An economy heavily dependent on agriculture, the persistence of outbreaks threaten the livelihood of farmers who depend on poultry production for survival.Despite significant efforts made in HPAI-H5N1 control and prevention in Ghana, outbreaks persist and continue to spread to new areas. It is uncertain to what extent different pathways contribute to the introduction and the dissemination of the virus in Ghana. There is a need to understand the complex nature of the interactions between local and migratory fowl, the risk of transmission due to human endeavor and trade mechanisms that increase the likelihood of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks in Ghana.MethodsData for the study was sourced from national outbreak records at the Veterinary Services Directorate.The study analyzed outbreak data for the years 2007-2017. Data retrieved from outbreak reports included the date of onset of outbreak, location and geographic coordinates, type and number of poultry species affected, natural deaths of birds and type of farming system on outbreak farms. We calculated frequency distributions for the types of poultry species affected, the type of farming system and mortality rates on affected premises.We described the distribution of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks using coordinate maps in ArcGIS and displayed relevant sites of waterfowl and wild bird habitation. To describe the temporal pattern of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks in Ghana for the period, we created an epidemic curve by plotting the monthly number of outbreaks for the period January 2007 to December 2017 in Excel. We used space-time scan statistics to determine significant local clusters.ResultsA total of sixty-six (66) outbreaks of HPAI-H5N1 occurred in Ghana from January 2007 to December 2017. The outbreak sites were distributed in seven (7) out of ten (10) regions in Ghana. The affected regions are located in the southern and middle belt of Ghana. Most of the outbreaks (74.2%) occurred in densely populated areas of the Greater Accra region. Overall, layer flocks were mostly affected with 56% of affected premises constituting layer farms. Commercial farms and backyard farms made up the majority of affected farms (50% and 42.4%). Free ranging birds were the least affected farm type (7.6%). Two epidemic waves were identified for H5N1 in Ghana; the first wave with 6 outbreaks, lasted a period of four (4) months from April to July 2007, and the second with 60 outbreaks, spanned a period of 2 years from April 2015 to November 2016. Temporal distribution of the outbreaks showed that the outbreak peaked in May 2007 for the first wave and in July 2017 for the second wave with minor peaks observed in April and July 2016. The decrease in the number of the outbreaks after July in both waves is attributed to the onset of slaughter and trade restrictions for poultry in affected areas. Space-time scan statistics identified significant primary clusters of H5N1 outbreaks in the coastal belt of the Greater Accra region, characterized by major commercial activities and the presence of wetlands of relevance to wild birds and migratory waterfowl.ConclusionsTwo (2) major waves of H5N1 outbreaks occurred in Ghana between 2007 and 2017. The distribution of outbreaks and poultry species in both waves, show that the epidemiology of H5N1 virus in Ghana is changing. The findings highlight the importance of reviewing existing control and preventive measures as well as strengthening avian influenza surveillance in proposed high- risk areas.ReferencesForeign Animal Diseases. Revised 2008 Seventh Edition. Committee on foreign and emerging diseases of the United States Animal Health Association.Avian Influenza, OIE terrestrial manual 2015To K.K.W.et al. Avian influenza A H5N1 virus: a continuous threat to humans. Emerging Microbes Infections (2012) 1, e25.Watanabe Y. et al. The changing nature of avian influenza A virus (H5N1). Trends Microbiol. 2012 Jan; 20 (1):11-20. doi: 10.1016/j.tim.2011.10.003. Epub 2011 Dec 5

Development and validation of nomogram for prediction of malignant transformation in oral leukoplakia: A large-scale cohort study.

Oral leukoplakia (OL) is the well-known disorder of oral mucosa, which has potential to be malignant and can lead to squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). In the following study, we developed a comprehensive nomogram for predicting the malignant progression of OL, based on analysis of clinicopathological variables. A retrospective analysis of patients diagnosed with OL was performed between 1998 and 2017 at the Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology. OL was confirmed by pre-treatment biopsy. The candidate risk factors for OL malignant transformation were screened from clinicopathological variables using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The nomogram model was generated based on the COX regression results and was validated through Harrell concordance index (c-index) and calibration plots RESULTS: The incidence of OL malignant transformation (MT) was 12.2% (107/875), and the mean follow-up time was 4.5 years. The risk factors (age, histologic grade, site of lesion and smoking habit) derived from Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were incorporated in a novel nomogram model for prediction of MT severity. The c-index value of the nomogram model was 0.752, which confirmed the prediction ability; and was further confirmed by calibration plots results. Our data suggest that patients with OL who are over 50 years old, non-smokers with dysplasia, and OL lesions involving the lip, the floor of mouth, and tongue have an enhanced risk of MT. The established nomogram model has the predictive value of malignant progression, which is conductive to screen high-risk patients and guide treatment strategy.