Habitat Expansion Research Articles

Paleoclimate Fluctuations Facilitate the Biogeographical History of Endemic Species of Freshwater Crabs in China via Cycles of Introgressive Hybridisation and Habitat Isolation

ABSTRACTAimThe impact of Pleistocene climate fluctuations on the biogeographical history of aquatic species has been a topic of enduring debate. This issue poses particular challenges for parapatric closely related species, especially those situated in transition zones where species assemblages occur between distinct zoogeographic boundaries.LocationEastern China.TaxonFive closely related Sinopotamon species and subspecies, S. shensiense, S. honanense, S. y. yangtsekiense, S. y. shanxianense, and S. y. tongbaiense.MethodsThese parapatric Sinopotamon species and subspecies, distributed along the boundary between the Palaearctic and Oriental realms in eastern China, offer an ideal model for addressing these challenges. We explored the biogeographic history of these species by conducting a comparative phylogeographic analysis using nine microsatellite loci and two mitochondrial DNA sequences, combined with morphological variation and fine‐tuned ecological niche modelling.ResultsOur phylogeographic analyses consistently revealed two well‐supported clades: clade A, for S. y. yangtsekiense, and clade B, which includes other species showing polyphyletic patterning and significant gene introgression. The Nanyang Basin and surrounding mountains regions (NBSM) was identified as a critical shared refuge and hybrid zone, facilitating interspecific introgression through at least two putative hybridisation events. During the Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, introgressive hybridisation of these species occurred in the NBSM, followed by rapid expansion and colonisation of heterogenous habitats during interglacial cycles, with dispersal corridors largely aligning with the local river system. In particular, the diffusion corridor of S. honanense significantly disrupted the continuous distribution of S. y. shanxianense and S. y. tongbaiense, indicating that S. honanense has replaced S. y. shanxianense and S. y. tongbaiense in the NYSM and caused a disruption in its distribution.Main ConclusionsThe biogeographic histories of the species in clade B are consistent with a mixing–isolation–mixing model, which suggests that populations experienced repeated introgressive hybridisation during glacial periods and regional habitat isolation during interglacial periods. Our findings represent a classic case of fine tracking biogeographical scenarios in parapatric species and provide unprecedented insights into the evolutionary radiation of the freshwater fauna that occupies zoogeographic boundaries.

Epidemiological Survey of Canine Distemper Virus Infection: Exploring the Link Between Virus Spread and Invasive Raccoon (Procyon lotor) Population Growth in Hokkaido, Japan

ABSTRACTInvasive raccoons (Procyon lotor) naturalized in Hokkaido, Japan, potentially spreading infectious diseases. Canine distemper virus infection is a serious epizootic disease, for which the raccoon is one of the hosts. We investigated the virus's prevalence in Hokkaido's wild raccoons, using 611 serum samples collected from captured raccoons in 2007–2012, 2021, and 2022. Higher seropositivity rates were confirmed in 2007 (32.7%), 2021 (46.4%), and 2022 (46.8%) than in 2008–2012 (0.00%–6.06%), suggesting the occurrence of an epidemic in 2007, 2021, and 2022 and its disappearance in 2008–2012. However, the infection status has recently changed, with high seropositivity rates consecutively confirmed in 2021 and 2022. Logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the relationships among the catch per unit effort (an index of animal population density), host and environmental factors, and antibody status. The catch per unit effort correlated with seropositivity in 2007. As for environmental factors, the forest area ratio had a weak influence on seroprevalence in 2007; however, the residential area ratio had a clear influence on seroprevalence in 2021 and 2022. The epidemic occurred in forested areas in 2007; nonetheless, recent raccoon population growth and habitat expansion may have caused widespread infections even around residential areas in 2021 and 2022. Continuous monitoring of the infection and reinforcement of raccoon control programs are necessary to avoid serious damage through disease transmission to sympatric native raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) and fox (Vulpes vulpes) populations, as well as health consequences for domestic dogs (Canis familiaris).

Predicting climate driven habitat shifts for the Egyptian vulture in Punjab, Pakistan

Climate change has significantly impacted habitat loss, affecting various threatened species, including the Egyptian vulture, which is experiencing a population and habitat decline in Pakistan. This study employs MaxEnt modeling to predict the current and future distribution of the Egyptian vulture across Punjab province, Pakistan, under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 for the years 2040, 2070, and 2100. We used 67 occurrence records and seven environmental variables to model the vulture’s distribution. The MaxEnt model exhibited good predictive performance with an AUC value of 0.837, identifying a current suitable habitat area of 122,124.16 km2. Among the environmental factors analyzed, precipitation seasonality (Bio15), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio10), and precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) emerged as the most influential variables, contributing 39.8 %, 18 %, and 8.8 %, respectively. The model predicts a substantial shift in suitable habitats under various climate scenarios, with an overall increase of 69 % in suitable habitat by 2100 under the SSP 370–2100 scenario. Significant habitat expansions are expected across central and southern Punjab, while reductions are anticipated in the northern and western regions, with significant changes in surface coverage. Furthermore, the conservation gap analysis reveals that although 2,451.63 km2 of highly suitable and 1,648.91 km2 of very highly suitable habitat exist within protected areas, more than 90 % of these habitats remain unprotected, highlighting a critical conservation gap that threatens the species’ long term survival. The insights derived from this study are critical for informing conservation efforts and habitat management practices, offering a foundational reference for the protection of the Egyptian vulture and similar species in the face of ongoing climate change.

Reconstructing Holocene hydroclimate variability and coastal dynamics of the Nile Delta: A diatom perspective

This study analyses diatom assemblages from a Nile Delta core (B-1) to probe Holocene hydroclimate changesand their influence on the ecological habitats of the delta coast, with a further focus on the effects of relative sea-level rise. We found that the freshwater diatom Aulacoseira granulata varied in tandem with hydroclimate pulses in the Nile watershed, driven by the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), therefore serving as a proxy for palaeo-Nile flow. Based on the ecological affinities of diatom taxa, we defined 5 diatom assemblages (I-V). Assemblage I (>10.0-8.5 ka BP) shows high A. granulata abundance (60–80%), implying peak Nile flow during the African Humid Period (AHP), at least 3 times greater than that of the recent past. Assemblage II (8.5-7.5 ka BP) sees decreased A. granulata (20–40%) and emergence of freshwater diatoms with benthic-oligotrophic characteristics (e.g. Epithemia gibba), suggesting reduced Nile flow and a delta estuary where the habitat became shallower with lower nutrient content. Assemblage III (7.5-6.0 ka BP) shows A. granulata resurgence (50–80%), reflecting Nile hydroclimate variability post-AHP due to the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The high-resolution- diatom spectra of B-1 also revealed major habitat changes, from saline to fluvial-dominated environments, around 6.0 ka BP. Assemblage IV (6.0-3.2 ka BP) indicates a notable Nile flow decline and freshwater community proliferation, coinciding with coastal habitat expansion and delta progradation due to RSL stablisation and basin-wide aridification. Assemblage V (3.2-2.0 ka BP) is marked by drought-tolerant diatoms (Nitzchia amphibia, Hantzschia amphioxys and Cavinula cocconeiformis), indicating intensified aridification.

Expansion to new habitats and a new commercial host (Malus domestica) by Anastrepha ludens (Tephritidae) likely influenced by global warming

Anastrepha ludens (Mexican fruit-fly) is a highly polyphagous fruit fly species (Tephritidae) attacking wild and commercial fruit from Mexico to Panama. Here we report on a recent habitat and host range expansion as A. ludens lately started to attack apples (Malus domestica) in Mexico, a phenomenon likely influenced by global warming. We document natural infestations in apple-growing regions in the States of Nuevo León and Hidalgo, Mexico where A. ludens has started to attack the cultivars ‘Golden Delicious’, ‘Rayada’ and ‘Criolla’. No infestations were found in the apple-growing region of Zacatlán, Puebla. To determine apple cultivar susceptibility to the attack of this emerging pest, we ran forced infestation assays in enclosed fruit-bearing branches in all three apple-growing regions and studied the metabolome of all fruit. A clear pattern emerged indicating that the cultivar ‘Golden Delicious’ was the most susceptible, with ‘Criolla’ exhibiting complete resistance in one location (Puebla). Although A. ludens can develop in this new host, development rates (egg—adult) and adult emergence were affected when compared with the performance in the natural host ‘Marsh’ grapefruit. Warmer temperatures and specific secondary metabolites of some apple cultivars are likely contributing to the territorial and host expansion of A. ludens.

Genetic Diversity and Ecogeographical Niche Overlap Among Hybridising Ox-Eye Daisies (Leucanthemum, Asteraceae) in the Carpathian Mountains: The Impact of Anthropogenic Disturbances.

Climate change and human influence are transforming mountain ecosystems, significantly impacting species distributions and biodiversity. Among these changes, the upward migration of lowland species into mountain regions stands out. This study examines the ecogeographical niche overlap and genetic diversity among three Leucanthemum species distributed along an altitudinal gradient in the Carpathian Mountains: the lowland L. ircutianum (4x), the montane L. rotundifolium (2x) and the alpine L. gaudinii (2x). By genotyping over 600 individuals using SNP analysis, followed by principal coordinate analysis (PCoA), Neighbour-Net Network and Structure clustering, we reveal not just distinct genetic groups but also hybridisation across all species, suggesting the potential for triple hybrids. Genetic admixture is further supported by environmental background and niche overlap analyses that reveal substantial overlap among species, particularly in line with their vertical distribution. Climate envelope plots indicate a likely reduction in available habitat for mountainous species due to climate change, leading to an increase in competition and an intensification of hybridisation. Anthropogenic influences are further intensifying these hybridisation trends. Among the studied species, L. gaudinii is most at risk of overwhelming hybridisation, whereas L. ircutianum may experience habitat expansion. By providing a comprehensive genetic and ecological overview, our research highlights the significance of hybridisation in biodiversity conservation and the challenges posed by environmental changes and anthropogenic activities in mountain environments. This study not only contributes to the understanding of genetic diversity in the Carpathians but also underscores the broader implications for molecular ecology and conservation strategies in mountain ecosystems.

Assessing climatic change impacts on mangrove structural dynamics on the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf

Abstract. Monitoring long-term trends in structural changes within mangrove ecosystems is essential for understanding their response to climate change and devising effective adaptation strategies in coastal regions. This study examines changes in mangrove patchiness within the Hara Biosphere Reserve (HBR) along the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf (PG) over a 31-year period (1986-2017), focusing on variations in rainfall patterns and drought occurrences. Employing a 35-year time series of monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values alongside satellite imagery analysis, trends in both the number of patches (NP) and the Largest Patch Index (LPI) were assessed at the mangrove stand level. The analysis reveals a significant correlation between structural changes in mangroves and drought events. Pre-1998, characterized by wetter conditions, witnessed a decrease in both NP and LPI, indicating patch expansion and habitat extension. Conversely, post-1998, during drought periods, both indices increased, indicating habitat degradation due to heightened drought intensity. Pre-1998 structural changes in the HBR signify habitat expansion, with increased patch extent and core areas reflecting enhanced structural integrity. However, post-1998, a concerning trend of habitat degradation emerged, with increased NP and LPI attributed to intensified droughts. These findings highlight a transitional period marked by favourable conditions for mangrove growth followed by habitat degradation linked to increased drought intensity. This underscores the vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems to climate change impacts, particularly exacerbated droughts, necessitating urgent efforts for conservation and management to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem services in coastal regions.

Clinical Relevance of Oxidative Stress Biomarkers in Human Flavivirus Infections as Predictors of Disease Progression and Severity.

Several Flaviviridae constitute an emerging threat to global health because of their continuing spread and the expansion of vector habitats, largely driven by climate change and intensified global travel. Infections can result in severe neurological or visceral pathologies. The relationship between oxidative stress (OS), an imbalance between generated reactive oxygen species and the antioxidant defences of the host, and flavivirus infection has been repeatedly demonstrated in in vitro and animal studies, but measuring biomarkers of oxidative stress in vivo could prove useful in clinical patient management. We summarise the knowledge and prospects of measuring peripheral OS biomarker levels for clinical case management and correlation with disease severity in six important human flavivirus infections (dengue virus (DENV), Japanese encephalitis virus, West Nile virus (WNV), tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), yellow fever virus and zika virus). We searched the Medline and Web of Science databases for 'Oxidative Stress' AND 'Biomarkers' AND 'Flavivirus', combined with 'clinical', 'in vivo/in vivo', 'patient' and/or 'disease' and included 43 peer-reviewed publications. Correlation between OS and infection has been studied in all six Flaviviridae, but most clinically relevant data are available for DENV, TBEV and WNV. Plasma protein carbonyls, glutathione peroxidase activity and nitrogen monoxide are promising prognostic markers, but their measurement would benefit from methodological harmonisation. Future studies should investigate a broad range of OS biomarkers as predictors of clinically relevant outcomes. We advocate the validation and use of universal or disease-specific oxidative stress indexes that incorporate the most significant outcomes into one, easy-to-use clinical determinant.

Long live the cat: Ocelot population viability in a planned reintroduced population in Texas, USA

AbstractReintroductions are often needed to recover carnivore populations and restore ecological processes. Felids are common subjects of reintroduction efforts, but published population models informing felid reintroduction plans are uncommon, and poor planning has sometimes caused issues in felid reintroduction programs. In the United States, ocelots (Leopardus pardalis pardalis) are classified as endangered, and recovery requires population expansion into historic habitat. A multi‐organization effort is underway to establish a new ocelot population in Texas by releasing ocelots into an area of 478 km2 of suitable habitat in ocelots' historic but now unoccupied range. In this study, we used population viability analyses to compare different ocelot reintroduction strategies for the identified reintroduction area. Based on a potential ocelot breeding program's limitations, we modeled reintroduction using a founding population of no more than six ocelots and no more than four ocelots released per year for no more than 15 subsequent years. Within these limitations, we assessed projected population abundances and extinction risks after 30 years for 20 different reintroduction strategies. We found that long‐term releases are necessary to establish a viable population; under conservative model assumptions, releasing six ocelots in the initial year and then releasing four individuals annually for an additional 10–15 years is necessary for attaining a projected population greater than 36.62 ocelots (baseline) with <6% extinction risk. We also found that ocelot population abundance is about equally sensitive to post‐release mortality and inbreeding depression. This highlights the importance of not only supporting reintroduced ocelots' survival but also managing for high genetic diversity in the reintroduction program. Further, we found that realistic but more liberal assumptions on the carrying capacity of the reintroduction area and the age of first reproduction for ocelots increase projected population abundances (53.95 individuals and 61.26 individuals, respectively), and thus reintroduction success. The model's sensitivity to carrying capacity suggests that long‐term habitat protection and expansion are among the most important management actions to support ocelot reintroduction. Our study establishes the first population viability model for an ocelot reintroduction plan anywhere across the species' wide geographic range, and it reinforces several key considerations for wildlife reintroduction efforts worldwide.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Corylus Species Distribution in China: Integrating Climatic, Topographic, and Anthropogenic Factors.

This study investigates the impact of climate change on the distribution of Corylus species in China using the MaxEnt model. Key environmental variables, such as Bio6 (mean temperature of the coldest month) and human footprint, emerged as significant determinants of habitat suitability. The study reveals substantial shifts in suitable habitats due to global warming and increased precipitation, with notable expansion towards higher latitudes. Species like Corylus heterophylla Fisch. ex Bess. and Corylus mandshurica Maxim. demonstrate resilience in extreme conditions, highlighting the importance of specific ecological traits for conservation. Future projections under various SSP scenarios predict continued habitat expansion, emphasizing the need for targeted conservation strategies to address the critical role of human activities. This research highlights the complex interplay between climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors in shaping Corylus habitats, advocating for integrated adaptive management approaches to ensure their sustainability amid ongoing climate change.

Loss of pelagic fish and zooplankton density associated with subglacial upwelling in high Arctic estuaries may be mitigated by benthic habitat expansion following tidewater glacier retreat

Glacier fronts are hotspots of pelagic productivity due to upwelling of nutrient-rich water. As tidewater glaciers retreat into land, this subglacial circulation will disappear and sedimentation from terrestrial runoff will increase, leading to a decrease in pelagic productivity with a decline in the abundance of fish and zooplankton. We used Billefjorden, a high Arctic fjord with a glacier recently transitioned from sea- to land-terminating as a case study to identify spatial differences and small-scale environmental drivers of density and vertical distribution of fish and zooplankton along a gradient of glacier retreat (directly in front of the land-terminating glacier front, a river bay with terrestrial input from land-terminating glaciers further inland and a location with minimal glacial input). We developed a sustainable and efficient protocol to safely sample the glacier front and shallow coastal areas using hydroacoustics and a remote autonomous vehicle combined with oceanographic measurements and baited remote cameras. Over two years, pelagic density was lowest at the now land-terminating glacier front and highest at the site with lowest terrestrial input. Temperature, depth and turbidity explained less than 8% of the variation each.

Phylogeography and population genomics of the critically endangered aquatic plant Caldesia grandis in China

Caldesia grandis, a critically endangered aquatic species, is predominantly found in the mid-low mountainous swamps of subtropical China. This study assessed the genetic diversity and population structure of the species using RAD-seq data, explored its phylogeography across the extant nine populations based on five plastid DNA (ptDNA) regions, and conducted niche modeling analysis. We found low genetic diversity (HE = 0.180, Ho = 0.222, and π = 0.197) and genetic differentiation among populations (Fst = 0.089), which was likely due to genetic drift in small populations and frequent inter-population contact during the Quaternary period. Although RAD-seq analysis did not reveal a clear population structure, two distinct clades, comprising western and eastern populations, were identified using five ptDNA haplotypes. Molecular dating and niche modeling suggested that the uplift of the Luoxiao Mts may have contributed to the divergence of the eastern and western clades (ca. 1.51 Ma)during the Pleistocene, which also supports the hypothesis that the Nanling Mts acted as a refugium for C. grandis. Additionally, the repeated glacial periods of the Quaternary, accompanied by contraction and expansion of suitable habitats, likely facilitated gene exchange among populations, influencing the current distribution pattern in subtropical China. Our results suggested that each ptDNA haplotype should be treated as an independent unit for conservation purposes, and ex-situ efforts should be prioritized to conserve C. grandis in China.

Distribution and Ecological Risk of Ludwigia peploides in South Korea.

The number of alien species introduced into South Korea continues to increase over the years. In particular, several plants have been introduced as ornamentals. Ludwigia peploides, which is native to the Americas and Australia, is believed to have been planted as an ornamental aquatic plant called "water primrose" and "primrose". It spread to natural ecosystems through rivers, and its distribution is gradually expanding in Suwon, Hwaseong, Busan, and Jeju. However, there has been no specific study on the ecological risk of L. peploides introduced into South Korea. This study, therefore, investigates the distribution status and ecological risks of L. peploides in South Korea through field surveys and allelopathic material analysis, as well as assessing abiotic risk factors. The distribution was confirmed at a total of 19 sites, with high-density mats of a single species forming along the water's edge and on the water surface. The maximum distribution area was 13,922 m2 in Chilgok Reservoir in Anseong. Stems and plant fragments transported along waterways were continuously forming colonies through vegetative propagation. When evaluating the overall risk, it is determined that L. peploides has a high potential to cause significant damage to the ecosystem if not managed promptly. Therefore, continuous monitoring is necessary to effectively manage and prevent the habitat expansion of L. peploides. The results of this study are expected to aid in the identification of the current distribution and potential ecological risks of L. peploides in South Korea, providing essential data for ecological risk assessment and the development of effective management strategies.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Betula luminifera H. Winkler in China Using MaxEnt

Betula luminifera H. Winkler, a fast-growing broad-leaved tree species native to China’s subtropical regions, possesses significant ecological and economic value. The species’ adaptability and ornamental characteristics make it a crucial component of forest ecosystems. However, the impacts of global climate change on its geographical distribution are not well understood, necessitating research to predict its potential distribution shifts under future climate scenarios. Our aims were to forecast the impact of climate change on the potential suitable distribution of B. luminifera across China using the MaxEnt model, which is recognized for its high predictive accuracy and low sample data requirement. Geographical coordinate data of B. luminifera distribution points were collected from various databases and verified for redundancy. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were selected and screened for correlation to avoid overfitting in the model. The MaxEnt model was optimized using the ENMeval package, and the model accuracy was evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion Correction (delta.AICc), Training Omission Rate (OR10), and Area Under the Curve (AUC). The potential distribution of B. luminifera was predicted under current and future climate scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The optimized MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy with an AUC value of 0.9. The dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of B. luminifera were annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and standard deviation of temperature seasonality. The potential suitable habitat area and its geographical location were predicted to change significantly under different future climate scenarios, with complex dynamics of habitat expansion and contraction. The distribution centroid of B. luminifera was also predicted to migrate, indicating a response to changing climatic conditions. Our findings underscore the importance of model optimization in enhancing predictive accuracy and provide valuable insights for the development of conservation strategies and forest management plans to address the challenges posed by climate change.

Insights from multigene analysis: first report of a Southeast Asian Mosquito, Aedes (Mucidus) laniger (Diptera: Culicidae) on Jeju Island from Korea

BackgroundCertain mosquitoes are known as dominant vectors worldwide, and transmit infectious diseases. The expansion of mosquito habitats due to climate change and increased human activities poses a significant health threat by facilitating the spread of various non-native infectious diseases. This study focused on the detection of the Southeast Asian mosquito species, Aedes (Mucidus) laniger (Wiedemann, 1820) on Jeju Island, the southernmost region of the Republic of Korea (ROK), highlighting the potential risks associated with the spread of vector-borne diseases, particularly emphasizing the elevated likelihood of invasion by Southeast Asian mosquitoes.MethodsField surveys were conducted in August 2023 on Jeju Island. Adult mosquitoes were collected using BG-sentinel traps and identified to the species level using taxonomic keys. Morphological and molecular analyses were employed to confirm species designations. Molecular data, including mitochondrial and nuclear genes, were used for phylogenetic analysis, which was performed to compare and identify among recorded subgenera in ROK. Species distribution modeling for Ae. laniger was performed to predict potential habitats using R package ‘BIOMOD2’.ResultsThe two specimens of Ae. laniger were collected for the first time on Jeju Island. Morphological and molecular analyses confirmed the identity of this species within the subgenus Mucidus and validated the first record of this species in the ROK. We employed a simple multigene phylogenetic analysis to confirm a new mosquito record at the genus and subgenus levels, finally validating the consistency between morphological identification and molecular phylogenetic outcomes. Furthermore, we have updated the taxonomic keys for the genus Aedes in the ROK, and revised mosquito lists for Jeju Island, incorporating the inclusion of Ae. laniger. On the basis of species distribution modeling, the area of suitable habitat for Ae. laniger is expected to expand due to climate change, but this change did not appear to be meaningful in East Asia.ConclusionsThis case offers the first report of the Southeast Asian mosquito, Ae. laniger, in the ROK. The detection of this species on Jeju Island suggests the potential establishment of a breeding population their habitat and raises concerns about further expansion into the Korean Peninsula. Considering the annual occurrence of mosquito-borne disease cases in the Southeast Asia, it is essential to conduct monitoring not only in Jeju Island, where Ae. laniger has been identified, but also across the entire Korean Peninsula.Graphical

Present and future distribution of the deep-sea habitat-forming sponge - Pheronema carpenteri ( ) in a changing ocean

Sponges play vital roles in the ecosystem function of the deep sea. Some species, such as the birds' nest sponge Pheronema carpenteri, can form highly structured and dense habitats (i.e., aggregations), which contribute to the increase of nearby biodiversity. Climate change is expected to have a pronounced impact on the deep sea, particularly on Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems such as those formed by the glass sponge Pheronema carpenteri. These ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate change and other anthropogenic activities since they are formed by sensitive species with slow growth rates and limited dispersal capability, which can hinder their adaptive capability and recovery after disturbance. The impact that climate change will have on Pheronema carpenteri remains unclear, although it is expected to influence the species' available suitable habitat and distribution range. The aim of this study was to predict the distribution of the glass sponge Pheronema carpenteri both for present day and under several future climate scenarios in the North Atlantic. An ensemble modelling approach was employed, combining Maximum Entropy, Generalized Additive Models and Random Forest techniques. Changes in available suitable habitat were projected to present day and to three future climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Depth, temperature and dissolved oxygen were identified as the key predictor variables of habitat suitability, which patterns suggest a strong influence of the Mediterranean Outflow Water in shaping the present day distribution of the species, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic. Our results indicate a potential expansion of available suitable habitat in the northernmost region of the study area, with a contraction at lower latitudes, more prominent in the Portuguese archipelago of the Azores. Under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), the area of suitable habitat will likely double compared to present, occupying approximately 6% of the total study area. The management and conservation of areas where Pheronema aggregations can occur should be articulated between different countries, particularly in the Northeast Atlantic since, cumulatively, most of Pheronema's climate refugia occurs within their EEZs. Nonetheless, a significant proportion of the species' climate refugia is located in areas within the High Seas (i.e., Rockall plateau).

Predicted future range expansion of a small carnivore: swift fox in North America

ContextSmall carnivores are declining globally due to a complex suite of threats. Conservation of these species requires an understanding of their distributions and potential responses to future land-use and climate change.ObjectivesWe modelled species-environment relationships of swift fox (Vulpes velox), a species of concern across their range. We developed spatial projections of current and future distribution to aid in conservation planning.MethodsWe assembled swift fox occurrence data from managers and community science sources to develop ensemble distribution models. In addition to landscape and climatic predictors, we developed a model of red fox distribution to represent effects of competition. We forecasted spatial predictions into the year 2070 under two climate change scenarios representing high (SSP 5–8.5) and low (SSP 1–2.6) emissions scenarios.ResultsPercent cover by grassland, mean annual precipitation, and minimum temperature of the coldest quarter were the three most important variables for swift fox distribution. Current suitable habitat for swift fox extends across 16 North American states and provinces. Future projections of swift fox distribution suggest an overall increase in area of swift fox suitable habitat under both emissions scenarios of > 56.9%, though patterns of gain and loss vary spatially.ConclusionsThe expansion of suitable habitat in future scenarios reflects swift fox adaptability to multiple land uses in a period following multi-organizational conservation efforts. Our spatial projections can be used in conservation planning and can serve as a case study of a small carnivore species likely to recover under future change scenarios provided that threats are addressed and landscape-scale conservation efforts continue.

Chorological analysis of species of the genus Dianthus in the South Caucasus region with an emphasis on the flora of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic

The purpose of the study was to conduct a chorological analysis of six species of the genus Dianthus in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, using field and molecular genetic methods. The main focus was on their geographical distribution, population status, and genetic diversity. As a result of the study of six species of the genus Dianthus, significant differences were found in their geographical distribution, ecological niches, and adaptation to local conditions. Molecular genetic analysis showed a high level of genetic diversity among populations of Dianthus nahcivanensis and Dianthus nakhchivanicus, which confirmed their uniqueness and endemic status. It has also been proven that the genus Dianthus has a high species diversity and shows significant variations in its distribution depending on the geographical and climatic conditions of the region. The study used geobotanic methods to determine the habitats of species and analyse factors affecting their distribution. In particular, features of the habitat were identified in connection with the local conditions of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, which included a significant number of endemic species. The genetic analysis performed using the polymerase chain reaction method and sequencing helped to identify the level of genetic diversity and establish phylogenetic relationships between populations. It was found that Dianthus raddeanus, Dianthus parviflorus, Dianthus nakhchivanicus and Dianthus nahcivanensis species are more vulnerable due to the impact of anthropogenic activities, in particular agriculture and grazing, which has led to a decrease in the area of their habitat. Modelling using the maximum entropy method showed potential zones of expansion of species habitats under favourable ecological conditions. The results obtained were important for understanding the ecological patterns of distribution of the genus Dianthus in the region and the development of strategies for preserving biodiversity in the face of climate change and anthropogenic pressure. Based on the study, it was recommended to create or expand protected areas, limit anthropogenic impact, and conduct additional monitoring of the number and genetic structure of Dianthus populations

Evolution of riparian vegetation in response to anthropogenic effects: The Taleqan River, Iran

AbstractDuring the last decades, human interventions, such as dam construction and land‐use change, have caused changes in geomorphic patterns and riparian zones in many rivers in Iran. This study aimed to assess the spatio‐temporal evolution of riparian vegetation and the spatial area of biogeomorphic feedback windows (BFWs) located in the riparian Salicaceae vegetation patches and their traits responding to human interventions in the Taleqan River during 1990–2022. The river was divided into five reaches using the geomorphic unit system (GUS) method, and the river sensitivity index (SI), location of BFWs, vegetation typology and main cover typology were investigated in the reaches using aerial photographs and satellite images from 1990 to 2022. For this purpose, the main cover typology was classified into grassland, woody vegetation, bank‐attached bars, islands, vegetated islands, river channels and urban areas. The stem diameter and density, degradation level and longitudinal/latitudinal alluvial bars in each of the BFWs were investigated using the field survey. Based on the findings, the lowest values of the SI (braiding index [BI], channel activity [CA] and channel width [CW]) and the highest expansion of BFWs were observed in the upstream reaches of the Taleqan River. Human disturbances in these reaches were less than in the reaches downstream, allowing the expansion of vegetation habitats. The vegetation patches were unstable and scattered in the midstream and downstream, and the width decrease of the river channel was created by land‐use change and channelization. A significant direct relationship was observed between BFW establishment, stem diameter and density, and vegetation height. The BFWs create an opportunity for engineer vegetation to prevent erosion and expand new habitats by creating biogeomorphic accumulation landforms and trapping alluvial bars on the lee side of engineer woody vegetation. This study highlights the interactions between riparian areas and hydrogeomorphic processes within riparian corridors exposed to human disturbances to help better define a comprehensive plan for river management.

Species distribution models predict genetic isolation of Hetaerina vulnerata Hagen in Selys, 1853 (Odonata, Calopterygidae).

Understanding how past and current environmental conditions shape the demographic and genetic distributions of organisms facilitates our predictions of how future environmental patterns may affect populations. The Canyon Rubyspot damselfly (Odonata: Zygoptera: Hetaerina vulnerata) is an insect with a range distribution from Colombia to the arid southwestern United States, where it inhabits shaded mountain streams in the arid southwestern United States. Past spatial fragmentation of habitat and limited dispersal capacity of H. vulnerata may cause population isolation and genetic differentiation, and projected climate change may exacerbate isolation by further restricting the species' distribution. We constructed species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrences of H. vulnerata and environmental variables characterizing the species' niche. We inferred seven current potential population clusters isolated by unsuitable habitat. Paleoclimate models indicated habitat contiguity in past conditions; projected models indicated some habitat fragmentation in future scenarios. Seventy-eight H. vulnerata individuals from six of the current clusters were sequenced via ddRADseq and processed with Stacks. Principal components and phylogeographic analyses resolved three subpopulations; Structure resolved four subpopulations. F ST values were low (<0.05) for nearby populations and >0.15 for populations separated by expanses of unsuitable habitat. Isolation by distance was an existing but weak factor in determining genomic structure; isolation by environment and the intervening landscape explained a significant proportion of genetic distance. Hetaerina vulnerata populations were shown to be isolated by a lack of tree canopy coverage, an important habitat predictor for oviposition and territoriality. Thus, H. vulnerata populations are likely separated and are genetically isolated. Integrating SDMs with landscape genetics allowed us to identify populations separated by distance and unsuitable habitat, explaining population genetic patterns and probable fates for populations under future climate scenarios.