Gulf Stream Region Research Articles

Cyclone intensification in the Kuroshio region and its relation to the sea surface temperature front and upper‐level forcing

AbstractThe Northwest Pacific features strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients providing favourable conditions for wintertime cyclone intensification in the midlatitudes. To estimate the relative contribution of the SST front to the evolution of cyclones and identify the mechanisms for cyclone intensification, we track individual cyclones and categorise them depending on their propagation relative to the SST front. We focus on cyclones remaining on either the cold or warm side of the SST front, as well as those crossing the SST front from the warm to the cold side. Cyclones crossing the SST front or remaining on its warm side propagate near the left exit region of the jet and are associated with higher precipitation, consistent with higher moisture availability and cyclone intensity. Comparing the different cyclone categories, there is no direct effect of the SST front on cyclone intensification. However, the SST front contributes to the climatological low‐level baroclinicity, providing a conducive environment for cyclone intensification for the cyclones crossing the SST front. Compared with the Gulf Stream region, the land–sea contrast plays a less prominent role for the low‐level baroclinicity in the Kuroshio region.

Characteristics of cyclones following different pathways in the Gulf Stream region

AbstractThe Northwest Atlantic is a region of strong temperature gradients and hence is a favourable location for wintertime cyclone intensification co‐located with the storm track. The temperature gradient is associated with both the sea surface temperature front along the Gulf Stream and the land–sea contrast. To understand the respective influences of the sea surface temperature (SST) front and land–sea contrast in the Gulf Stream region, as well as the role of upper‐level forcing on cyclone development, we track individual cyclones and categorise them depending on their propagation relative to the SST front. We concentrate on cyclones staying either on the cold (C1) or warm (C2) side of the SST front, and on cyclones that cross the SST front from the warm to the cold side (C3). Comparing these categories, we find that the land–sea contrast is more important for supplying baroclinicity to cyclones in C1, while the strong low‐level baroclinicity in C3 is also partially attributable to the SST front. The propagation of cyclones in C1 and C3 near the left exit region of the North Atlantic jet explains the higher intensification and precipitation.

Sensitivity of winter North Atlantic-European climate to resolved atmosphere and ocean dynamics

Northern Hemisphere western boundary currents, like the Gulf Stream, are key regions for cyclogenesis affecting large-scale atmospheric circulation. Recent observations and model simulations with high-temporal and -spatial resolution have provided evidence that the associated ocean fronts locally affect troposphere dynamics. A coherent view of how this affects the mean climate and its variability is, however, lacking. In particular the separate role of resolved ocean and atmosphere dynamics in shaping the atmospheric circulation is still largely unknown. Here we demonstrate for the first time, by using coupled seasonal forecast experiments at different resolutions, that resolving meso-scale oceanic variability in the Gulf Stream region strongly affects mid-latitude interannual atmospheric variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation. Its impact on climatology, however, is minor. Increasing atmosphere resolution to meso-scale, on the other hand, strongly affects mean climate but moderately its variability. We also find that regional predictability relies on adequately resolving small-scale atmospheric processes, while resolving small-scale oceanic processes acts as an unpredictable source of noise, except for the North Atlantic storm-track where the forcing of the atmosphere translates into skillful predictions.

Mesoscale eddies release pelagic sharks from thermal constraints to foraging in the ocean twilight zone

Mesoscale eddies are critical components of the ocean's "internal weather" system. Mixing and stirring by eddies exerts significant control on biogeochemical fluxes in the open ocean, and eddies may trap distinctive plankton communities that remain coherent for months and can be transported hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Debate regarding how and why predators use fronts and eddies, for example as a migratory cue, enhanced forage opportunities, or preferred thermal habitat, has been ongoing since the 1950s. The influence of eddies on the behavior of large pelagic fishes, however, remains largely unexplored. Here, we reconstruct movements of a pelagic predator, the blue shark (Prionace glauca), in the Gulf Stream region using electronic tags, earth-observing satellites, and data-assimilating ocean forecasting models. Based on >2,000 tracking days and nearly 500,000 high-resolution time series measurements collected by 15 instrumented individuals, we show that blue sharks seek out the interiors of anticyclonic eddies where they dive deep while foraging. Our observations counter the existing paradigm that anticyclonic eddies are unproductive ocean "deserts" and suggest anomalously warm temperatures in these features connect surface-oriented predators to the most abundant fish community on the planet in the mesopelagic. These results also shed light on the ecosystem services provided by mesopelagic prey. Careful consideration will be needed before biomass extraction from the ocean twilight zone to avoid interrupting a key link between planktonic production and top predators. Moreover, robust associations between targeted fish species and oceanographic features increase the prospects for effective dynamic ocean management.

Co-variation of the surface wind speed and the sea surface temperature over mesoscale eddies in the Gulf Stream region: momentum vertical mixing aspect

The co-variation of surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST) over the Gulf Stream frontal region is investigated using high-resolution satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis data. Results show that the pattern of positive SST-surface wind speed correlations is anchored by strong SST gradient and marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) height front, with active warm and cold-ocean eddies around. The MABL has an obvious transitional structure along the strong SST front, with greater (lesser) heights over the north (south) side. The significant positive SST-surface wind-speed perturbation correlations are mostly found over both strong warm and cold eddies. The surface wind speed increases (decreases) about 0.32 (0.41) m/s and the MABL elevates (drops) approximate 55 (54) m per 1°C of SST perturbation induced by warm (cold) eddies. The response of the surface wind speed to SST perturbations over the mesoscale eddies is mainly attributed to the momentum vertical mixing in the MABL, which is confirmed by the linear relationships between the downwind (crosswind) SST gradient and wind divergence (curl).

Uncertainty and scale interactions in ocean ensembles: From seasonal forecasts to multidecadal climate predictions

The ocean plays an important role in the climate system on time‐scales of weeks to centuries. Despite improvements in ocean models, dynamical processes involving multiscale interactions remain poorly represented, leading to errors in forecasts. We present recent advances in understanding, quantifying, and representing physical and numerical sources of uncertainty in novel regional and global ocean ensembles at different horizontal resolutions. At coarse resolution, uncertainty in 21st century projections of the upper overturning cell in the Atlantic is mostly a result of buoyancy fluxes, while the uncertainty in projections of the bottom cell is driven equally by both wind and buoyancy flux uncertainty. In addition, freshwater and heat fluxes are the largest contributors to Atlantic Ocean heat content regional projections and their uncertainties, mostly as a result of uncertain ocean circulation projections. At both coarse and eddy‐permitting resolutions, unresolved stochastic temperature and salinity fluctuations can lead to significant changes in large‐scale density across the Gulf Stream front, therefore leading to major changes in large‐scale transport. These perturbations can have an impact on the ensemble spread on monthly time‐scales and subsequently interact nonlinearly with the dynamics of the flow, generating chaotic variability on multiannual time‐scales. In the Gulf Stream region, the ratio of chaotic variability to atmospheric‐forced variability in meridional heat transport is larger than 50% on time‐scales shorter than 2 years, while between 40 and 48°S the ratio exceeds 50% on on time‐scales up to 28 years. Based on these simulations, we show that air–sea interaction and ocean subgrid eddies remain an important source of error for simulating and predicting ocean circulation, sea level, and heat uptake on a range of spatial and temporal scales. We discuss how further refinement of these ensembles can help us assess the relative importance of oceanic versus atmospheric uncertainty in weather and climate.

Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport Influences Interannual-to-Decadal Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic Region

An analysis of a three-member ensemble of initialized coupled simulations with the MPI-ESM-LR covering the period 1901–2010 shows that Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) at 50°N influences surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic region for several years. Three to ten years after strong OHT phases at 50°N, a characteristic pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies emerges: warm anomalies are found in the North Atlantic and cold anomalies emerge in the Gulf Stream region. This pattern originates from persistent upper-ocean heat content anomalies that originate from southward-propagating OHT anomalies in the North Atlantic. Interannual-to-decadal SST predictability of yearly initialized hindcasts is linked to this SST pattern: when ocean heat transport at 50°N is strong at the initialization of a hindcast, SST anomaly correlation coefficients in the northeast Atlantic at lead years 2–9 are significantly higher than when the ocean heat transport at 50°N is weak at initialization. Surface heat fluxes that mask the predictable low-frequency oceanic variability that influences SSTs in the northwest Atlantic after strong OHT phases, and in the northwest and northeast Atlantic after weak OHT phases at 50°N lead to zonally asymmetrically predictable SSTs 7–9 years ahead. This study shows that the interannual-to-decadal predictability of North Atlantic SSTs depends strongly on the strength of subpolar ocean heat transport at the start of a prediction, indicating that physical mechanisms need to be taken into account for actual temperature predictions.

Atmospheric Signature of the Agulhas Current

AbstractWestern boundary currents play an important role in the climate system by transporting heat poleward and releasing it to the atmosphere. While their influence on extratropical storms and oceanic rainfall is becoming appreciated, their coastal influence is less known. Using satellite and climate reanalysis data sets and a regional atmospheric model, we show that the Agulhas Current is a driver of the observed band of rainfall along the southeastern African coast and above the Agulhas Current. The Agulhas current's warm core is associated with sharp gradients in sea surface temperature and sea level pressure, a convergence of low‐level winds, and a co‐located band of precipitation. Correlations among wind convergence, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature indicate that these features show high degree of similarity to those in the Gulf Stream region. Model experiments further indicate that the Agulhas Current mostly impacts convective rainfall.

Mesoscale eddies influence the movements of mature female white sharks in the Gulf Stream and Sargasso Sea

Satellite-tracking of mature white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) has revealed open-ocean movements spanning months and covering tens of thousands of kilometers. But how are the energetic demands of these active apex predators met as they leave coastal areas with relatively high prey abundance to swim across the open ocean through waters often characterized as biological deserts? Here we investigate mesoscale oceanographic variability encountered by two white sharks as they moved through the Gulf Stream region and Sargasso Sea in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the vicinity of the Gulf Stream, the two mature female white sharks exhibited extensive use of the interiors of clockwise-rotating anticyclonic eddies, characterized by positive (warm) temperature anomalies. One tagged white shark was also equipped with an archival tag that indicated this individual made frequent dives to nearly 1,000 m in anticyclones, where it was presumably foraging on mesopelagic prey. We propose that warm temperature anomalies in anticyclones make prey more accessible and energetically profitable to adult white sharks in the Gulf Stream region by reducing the physiological costs of thermoregulation in cold water. The results presented here provide valuable new insight into open ocean habitat use by mature, female white sharks that may be applicable to other large pelagic predators.

Gulf Stream Transport and Mixing Processes via Coherent Structure Dynamics

AbstractThe Gulf Stream has been characterized as either a barrier or blender to fluid transfer, a duality relevant to gyre‐scale climate adjustment. However, previous characterization depended on relatively sparse, Lagrangian in situ observations. The finite‐time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) is calculated from satellite altimetry to identify Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) in the Gulf Stream region. These LCS provide dense sampling of flow and capture distinct regions associated with mixing. Independent observations of ocean color contain similar flow‐dependent structures, providing verification of the method and highlighting transport and mixing processes that influence sea surface temperature and chlorophyll, among other water properties. Diagnosed LCS support the existing Bower kinematic model of the Gulf Stream, but also highlight novel behavior of comparable importance. These include vortex pinch‐off and formation of spiral eddies, clearly identified by LCS and which may be explained by considering changes to flow topology and the dynamics of shear‐flow instability at both small and large Rossby number. Such processes, seen though LCS, may further enable validation of climate models. The spatial distribution of these intermittent processes is characterized in terms of the criticality of jet dynamics with respect to Rossby wave propagation, and whether the jet is in an unstable or wave‐maker regime. The generation and connectivity of hyperbolic trajectories in the flow appears to play an important role in governing large‐scale transport and mixing across the Gulf Stream.

Impacts of Mesoscale Eddies on the Vertical Nitrate Flux in the Gulf Stream Region

AbstractThe Gulf Stream (GS) region has intense mesoscale variability that can affect the supply of nutrients to the euphotic zone (Zeu). In this study, a recently developed high‐resolution coupled physical‐biological model is used to conduct a 25‐year simulation in the Northwest Atlantic. The Reynolds decomposition method is applied to quantify the nitrate budget and shows that the mesoscale variability is important to the vertical nitrate supply over the GS region. The decomposition, however, cannot isolate eddy effects from those arising from other mesoscale phenomena. This limitation is addressed by analyzing a large sample of eddies detected and tracked from the 25‐year simulation. The eddy composite structures indicate that positive nitrate anomalies within Zeu exist in both cyclonic eddies (CEs) and anticyclonic eddies (ACEs) over the GS region, and are even more pronounced in the ACEs. Our analysis further indicates that positive nitrate anomalies mostly originate from enhanced vertical advective flux rather than vertical turbulent diffusion. The eddy‐wind interaction‐induced Ekman pumping is very likely the mechanism driving the enhanced vertical motions and vertical nitrate transport within ACEs. This study suggests that the ACEs in GS region may play an important role in modulating the oceanic biogeochemical properties by fueling local biomass production through the persistent supply of nitrate.

Impacts of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition on Surface Waters of the Western North Atlantic Mitigated by Multiple Feedbacks

AbstractThe impacts of atmospheric nitrogen deposition (AND) on the chlorophyll and nitrogen dynamics of surface waters in the western North Atlantic (25°N–45°N, 65°W–80°W) are examined with a biogeochemical ocean model forced with a regional atmospheric chemistry model (Community Multiscale Air Quality, CMAQ). CMAQ simulations with year‐specific emissions reveal the existence of a “hot spot” of AND over the Gulf Stream. The impact of the hot spot on the oceanic biogeochemistry is mitigated in three ways by physical and biogeochemical processes. First, AND significantly contributes to surface oceanic nitrogen concentrations only during the summer period, when the stratification is maximal and the background nitrogen inventories are minimal. Second, the increase in summer surface nitrate concentrations is accompanied by a reduction in upward nitrate diffusion at the base of the surface layer. This negative feedback partly cancels the nitrogen enrichment from AND. Third, gains in biomass near the surface force a shoaling of the euphotic layer and a reduction of about 5% in deep primary production and biomass on the continental shelf. Despite these mitigating processes, the impacts of AND remain substantial. AND increases surface nitrate concentrations in the Gulf Stream region by 14% during the summer (2% on average over the year). New primary production increases by 22% in this region during summer (8% on average). Although these changes may be difficult to distinguish from natural variability in observations, the results support the view that AND significantly enhances local carbon export.

Sensitivity of acoustic propagation modeling to variations in ocean environmental conditions

A parabolic equation acoustic model has been used to estimate transmission loss for a mid-frequency sound source to assist in marine mammal behavioral response studies. The sound propagation is modeled for a range-dependent environment using the Navy Digital Bathymetric Data Base and Bottom Sediment Type database, NOAA Global Ocean Sediment Thickness Dataset, and the High-Resolution Global Sea Surface Wind Speed monthly climatology. The sound speed along the propagation path is modeled using two ocean temperature/salinity fields of different spatial and temporal resolution: monthly 0.25 deg outputs of the Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM), and the daily 1/12 deg outputs of the regional Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The modeling was done for two operational areas with strikingly different ocean environments, the Southern California Bight and the Gulf Stream region off Cape Hatteras. The latter represents a much more dynamic ocean environment with profound temperature fronts, highly variable meso- and submesoscale eddy activity, and sharp bathymetry gradients along the shelf break. Received sound levels measured on tagged marine mammals, and synchronized sound source/sound receiver tracklines are used to estimate uncertainty of the acoustic modeling results, and the non-linear sensitivity of the model to wide-range variations in the ocean environmental conditions.

Probability Distribution of Turbulent Kinetic Energy Dissipation Rate in Ocean: Observations and Approximations

AbstractThe probability distribution of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate in stratified ocean usually deviates from the classic lognormal distribution that has been formulated for and often observed in unstratified homogeneous layers of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Our measurements of vertical profiles of micro‐scale shear, collected in the East China Sea, northern Bay of Bengal, to the south and east of Sri Lanka, and in the Gulf Stream region, show that the probability distributions of the dissipation rate in the pycnoclines (r ∼ 1.4 m is the averaging scale) can be successfully modeled by the Burr (type XII) probability distribution. In weakly stratified boundary layers, lognormal distribution of is preferable, although the Burr is an acceptable alternative. The skewness and the kurtosis of the dissipation rate appear to be well correlated in a wide range of and variability.

On the Evaluation of Seasonal Variability of the Ocean Kinetic Energy

AbstractThe seasonal cycles of the mean kinetic energy (MKE) and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) are compared in an idealized flow as well as in a realistic simulation of the Gulf Stream (GS) region based on three commonly used definitions: orthogonal, nonorthogonal, and moving-average filtered decompositions of the kinetic energy (KE). It is shown that only the orthogonal KE decomposition can define the physically consistent MKE and EKE that precisely represents the KEs of the mean flow and eddies, respectively. The nonorthogonal KE decomposition gives rise to a residual term that contributes to the seasonal variability of the eddies, and therefore the obtained EKE is not precisely defined. The residual term is shown to exhibit more significant seasonal variability than EKE in both idealized and realistic GS flows. Neglecting its influence leads to an inaccurate evaluation of the seasonal variability of both the eddies and the total flow. The decomposition using a moving-average filter also results in a nonnegligible residual term in both idealized and realistic GS flows. This type of definition does not ensure conservation of the total KE, even if taking into account the residual term. Moreover, it is shown that the annual cycles of the three types of EKEs or MKEs have different phases and amplitudes. The local differences of the EKE cycles are very prominent in the GS off-coast domain; however, because of the spatial inhomogeneity, the area-mean differences may not be significant.

Multidecadal variability and climate shift in the North Atlantic Ocean

AbstractDecadal variability of ocean heat content (OHC) and temperature trends over ~60 years in the North Atlantic Ocean were analyzed using a new high‐resolution ocean climatology based on quality‐controlled historic in situ observations. Тwo ~30 year ocean climates of 1955–1984 and 1985–2012 were compared to evaluate the climate shift in this region. The spatial distribution of the OHC climate shift is highly inhomogeneous, with the climate shift being the strongest southeast of the Gulf Stream Extension. This may be caused by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown in conjunction with heaving of warm subtropical water. The 30 year climate shift shows higher OHC gain in the Gulf Stream region than reported in shorter timescale estimates. The OHC change is generally coherent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. This coherence suggests that quasi‐cyclicity of the OHC may exist, with a period of 60 to 80 years, superimposed on the slow basin‐wide warming trend.

Resolution dependence of extreme precipitation and deep convection over the Gulf Stream

AbstractModeled wintertime precipitation over the Atlantic Gulf Stream region is shown to be sensitive to the horizontal resolution of the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM). By contrasting simulations with the EC‐Earth GCM over a range of horizontal resolutions (T159, T319, T799), it is shown that especially the precipitation extremes become more populated if resolution is higher. Higher resolution also appears to strengthen the communication from the sea surface toward the troposphere. With increasing resolution, deep convection over the Gulf Stream region, diagnosed via wind‐convergence and vertical motion, occurs more frequently and the former is in better agreement with observations. Likewise the frequency increase of the precipitation extremes over the region for increasing resolution makes them agree better with observations, despite large natural variability and discrepancies between different observational sources.

Interannual Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean’s Temperature Field and Its Association with the Wind Stress Forcing

Spectral analyses of the North Atlantic temperature field in the Simple Ocean Data Analysis (SODA) reanalysis identify prominent and statistically significant interannual oscillations along the Gulf Stream front and in large regions of the North Atlantic. A 7–8-yr oscillatory mode is characterized by a basinwide southwest-to-northeast–oriented propagation pattern in the sea surface temperature (SST) field. This pattern is found to be linked to a seesaw in the meridional dipole structure of the zonal wind stress forcing (TAUX). In the subpolar gyre, the SST and TAUX fields of this mode are shown to be in phase opposition, which suggests a cooling effect of the wind stress on the upper ocean layer. Over all, this mode’s temperature field is characterized by a strong equivalent-barotropic component, as shown by covariations in SSTs and sea surface heights, and by phase-coherent behavior of temperature layers at depth with the SST field. Recent improvements of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) help separate spatiotemporal patterns. This methodology is developed further and applied to studying the ocean’s response to variability in the atmospheric forcing. Statistical evidence is shown to exist for other mechanisms generating oceanic variability of similar 7–8-yr periodicity in the Gulf Stream region; the latter variability is likewise characterized by a strongly equivalent-barotropic component. Two other modes of biennial variability in the Gulf Stream region are also identified, and it is shown that interannual variability in this region cannot be explained by the ocean’s response to similar variability in the atmospheric forcing alone.

The impact of SST resolution change in the ERA‐Interim reanalysis on wintertime Gulf Stream frontal air‐sea interaction

AbstractThis paper examines the sensitivity to a change in sea surface temperature (SST) resolution of the interaction between atmospheric and oceanic fronts in the Gulf Stream region in the ERA‐Interim reanalysis data set. Two periods are considered, January 1979 to December 2001 (SST resolution 1° × 1°) and December 2010 to February 2016 (SST resolution 0.05° × 0.05°). The winter season from the latter 6 years of high‐resolution SST is compared against six random periods of six wintertime seasons from the low‐resolution SST period, to assess the robustness of the result against natural climate variability. In all comparisons, a significant change in frontal air‐sea sensible heat flux exchange is found that is highly correlated to the change in mean SST gradient. This leads to both increases and decreases in occurrence of atmospheric fronts and mean precipitation of up to 30%. These results reemphasize the importance of high SST resolution in resolving the influence of oceanic fronts on weather and climate.

A comparison of the structure, properties, and water mass composition of quasi-isotropic eddies in western boundary currents in an eddy-resolving ocean model

Using output from a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model, we analyse the properties and characteristics of quasi-isotropic eddies in five Western Boundary Current (WBC) regions, including the extensions of the Agulhas, East Australian Current (EAC), Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC), Kuroshio and Gulf Stream regions. We assess the model eddies by comparing to satellite and in situ observations, and show that most aspects of the model’s representation of eddies are realistic. We find that the mean eddies differ dramatically between these WBC regions - all with some unique and noteworthy characteristics. We find that the vertical displacement of isopycnals of Agulhas eddies is the greatest, averaging 350–450 m at depths of over 800–900 m. EAC (BMC) eddies are the least (most) barotropic, with only 50% (85–90%) of the velocity associated with the barotropic mode. Kuroshio eddies are the most stratified, resulting in small isopycnal displacement, even for strong eddies; and Gulf Stream eddies carry the most heat. Despite their differences, we explicitly show that the source waters for anticyclonic eddies are a mix of the WBC water (from the boundary current itself) and water that originates equatorward of the WBC eddy-field; and cyclonic eddies are a mix of WBC water and water that originates poleward of the WBC eddy-field.