Gulf Of Guinea Research Articles

An Ecologically Consistent Model of Growth for Hard-Bodied Marine Organisms

There are several factors to account for marine growth including but not limited to temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a content, existing species in the environment and predating. This paper proposes a model of biological growth for hard species on marine structures, which can be compatible with site-specific and realistic ecology while also being able to translate the results for analyses linked to lifetime hydrodynamic or structural effects via commercial software or computing. The model preserves fundamentals of ecological aspects rather than using heuristics or random sampling to data fitting on sparsely collected information. The coefficients used in the proposed model align to the real world, with location-specific values, and can be adapted to new information. The growth model is demonstrated for Mythulis Edulis (blue mussel) colonisation to assess the lifetime hydrodynamic effects for the West Coast of Ireland and the Gulf of Guinea. The model can be extended to any hard growth approach.

Impact of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on the tropical African climate in an ocean–atmosphere–aerosol coupled climate model

Abstract. The impact of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) emitted in central Africa on the tropical African climate is studied using the ocean–atmosphere global climate model CNRM-CM, including prognostic aerosols. The direct BBA forcing, cloud feedbacks (semi-direct effects), effects on surface solar radiation, atmospheric dynamics and precipitation are analysed for the 1990–2014 period. During the June–July–August (JJA) season, the CNRM-CM simulations reveal a BBA semi-direct effect exerted on low-level clouds with an increase in the cloud fraction of ∼5 %–10 % over a large part of the tropical ocean. The positive effect of BBA radiative effects on low-level clouds is found to be mainly due to the sea surface temperature response (decrease of ∼0.5 K) associated with solar heating at 700 hPa, which increases the lower-tropospheric stability. Over land, results also indicate a positive effect of BBA on the low-cloud fraction, especially for the coastal regions of Gabon and Angola, with a potentially enhanced impact in these coupled simulations that integrates the response (cooling) of the sea surface temperature (SST). In addition to the BBA radiative effect on SST, the ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations highlight that the oceanic temperature response is noticeable (about −0.2 to −0.4 K) down to ∼80 m depth in JJA between the African coast and 10° W. In parallel to low-level clouds, reductions of ∼5 %–10 % are obtained for mid-level clouds over central Africa, mainly due to BBA-induced surface cooling and lower-tropospheric heating inhibiting convection. In terms of cloud optical properties, the BBA radiative effects induced an increase in the optical depth of about ∼2–3 over the ocean south of the Equator. The result of the BBA direct effect and feedback on tropical clouds modulates the surface solar radiation over the whole of tropical Africa. The strongest surface dimming is over central Africa (∼-30 W m−2), leading to a large reduction in the continental surface temperature (by ∼1 to 2 K), but the solar radiation at the oceanic surface is also affected up to the Brazilian coast. With respect to the hydrological cycle, the CNRM-CM simulations show a negative effect on precipitation over the western African coast, with a decrease of ∼1 to 2 mm d−1. This study also highlights a persistent impact of BBA radiative effects on low-level clouds (increase in cloud fraction, liquid water content and optical depth) during the September–October–November (SON) period, mainly explained by a residual cooling of sea surface temperature over most of the tropical ocean. In SON, the effect on precipitation is mainly simulated over the Gulf of Guinea, with a reduction of ∼1 mm d−1. As for JJA, the analysis clearly highlights the important role of the slow response of the ocean in SON and confirms the need to use coupled modelling platforms to study the impact of BBA on the tropical African climate.

Correction to: Analysis of sea surface temperature pattern, variability and their teleconnection with rainfall dynamics over the Gulf of Guinea

Correction to: Analysis of sea surface temperature pattern, variability and their teleconnection with rainfall dynamics over the Gulf of Guinea

Maritime security and the inter-agency challenge: The case of Ghana

ABSTRACT Maritime security is a major international concern with the Gulf of Guinea recognised as one of the global hotspots of blue crime, such as piracy, kidnap for ransom, trafficking of narcotics, human and arms, and illegal fishing. The complex and complicated challenge of maritime security, a wicked problem, calls for inter-agency coordination, synergy of efforts and scaling up of responses. Given the complexity of maritime security threats, no single organisation has the institutional muscle to single-handedly deal with it. Drawing on evidence from Ghana, where the arrival of maritime security as a concept triggered a shift from single to a multi-agency approach to dealing with maritime issues, the article examines the potential of and challenges associated with inter-agency coordination. In line with recent international developments, African nations like Ghana aim to apply the concept of inter-agency coordination to tackle maritime insecurity in its waters. The paper assesses how inter-agency coordination could be used in an African maritime security governance context, while examining power imbalance, strife for agency autonomy and other obstacles that have to be addressed to ensure that the promises associated with the concept are fulfilled.

An update on the genus Ischiomysis with a description of I. proincisa sp. nov. (Crustacea, Mysida) from a sublittoral marine cave in the Gulf of Guinea (tropical E-Atlantic)

An update on the genus Ischiomysis with a description of I. proincisa sp. nov. (Crustacea, Mysida) from a sublittoral marine cave in the Gulf of Guinea (tropical E-Atlantic)

Nested admixture during and after the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade on the island of São Tomé.

Human admixture history is rarely a simple process in which distinct populations, previously isolated for a long time, come into contact once to form an admixed population. In this study, we aim to reconstruct the complex admixture histories of the population of São Tomé, an island in the Gulf of Guinea that was the site of the first slave-based plantation economy, and experienced successive waves of forced and deliberate migration from Africa. We examined 2.5 million SNPs newly genotyped in 96 São Toméans and found that geography alone cannot explain the observed patterns of genetic differentiation within the island. We defined five genetic groups in São Tomé based on the hypothesis that individuals sharing the most haplotypes are more likely to share similar genetic histories. Using Identical-by-Descent and different local ancestry inference methods, we inferred shared ancestries between 70 African and European populations and each São Toméan genetic group. We identified admixture events between admixed groups that were previously isolated on the island, showing how recently admixed populations can be themselves the sources of other admixture events. This study demonstrates how complex admixture and isolation histories during and after the Transatlantic Slave-Trade shaped extant individual genetic patterns at a local scale in Africa.

The Mundeck Salt Unit: A Review of Aptian Depositional Context and Hydrocarbon Potential in the Kribi-Campo Sub-Basin (South Cameroon Atlantic Basin)

The Kribi-Campo sub-basin, located in the Gulf of Guinea, constitutes the southeastern segment of the Cameroon Atlantic Margin. Drilling in the Aptian salt unit revealed a sparse hydrocarbon presence, contrasting with modest finds in its counterparts like the Ezanga Salt in Gabon and the Rio Muni Salt in Equatorial Guinea. This discrepancy prompted a reassessment of the depositional context and hydrocarbon potential of the Mundeck salt unit. By integrating 2D seismic reflection and borehole data analysis, this study established the structural and stratigraphic framework of the area, emphasizing the salt unit’s significance. Borehole data indicate a localized salt unit offshore Kribi, with seismic reflection data revealing distinct forms of diapir and pillow. This salt unit displays a substantial lateral extent with thicknesses ranging from 4000 m to 6000 m. The depositional context is linked to the following two major geological events: a significant sea-level drop due to margin uplift during the Aptian and thermodynamic processes driven by transfer faults related to mid-oceanic ridge formation. These events were crucial in forming and evolving the Mundeck Salt. Regarding hydrocarbon prospects, this study identifies the unit as being associated with potential petroleum plays, supported by direct hydrocarbon indicators and fault-related structures. The findings suggest that untapped hydrocarbon resources may still exist, underscoring the need for further exploration and analysis.

Ecological Implications of Seasonal Variations in Physicochemical Parameters and Phytoplankton Community in an Effluent‐Receiving Wetland in the Gulf of Guinea, Cameroon

ABSTRACTPhysicochemical parameters, chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration, and phytoplankton community structure were assessed in the Wouri estuarine mangrove sector of the Douala Bassa Industrial Zone of Cameroon over two seasons. Three sets of water samples were collected from 10 sites for these analyses. Some physicochemical parameters were measured in situ using multiparameter equipment (HANNA 8289). The data were subjected to analyses of significant difference by an independent sample t‐test. Correlation and principal component analysis conducted between variables Temperature, salinity, total dissolved solids (TDS), resistivity, and turbidity showed a strong seasonal variation among sites. Mean Chl a concentration (3.7–48.29 µg/L for dry and 0.1–20.1 µg/L for rainy season) revealed that most sites were eutrophic, with the Euglenophycean index less than 1 in all the sites. Phytoplankton species richness exhibited seasonal and spatial variation, with a total of 74 taxa and 51 taxa for the dry and rainy seasons, respectively. The division Bacillariophyta was the most abundant, with 19 families and 24 species during the dry season and 17 families and 16 species during the rainy season. Other phytoplankton divisions present included Chlorophyta > Cyanophyta > Charophyta > > Myzozoa > Euglenophyta in the dry season; the less diverse divisions in the rainy season were Rhodophyta > Cryptophyta > Xanthophyta > Euglenophyta. High concentrations of nutrients and the presence of eutrophic species such as Microcystis aeruginosa suggest pollution and a need to monitor activities carried out along the water course with respect to the quantity and quality of industrial effluents discharged into the stream. The observed eutrophication explains the noxious odor across the city of Douala, especially during the dry season. The human health implications could be severe, with communities dependent on this contaminated stream for fish and other necessities a scenario that repeats itself in communities dependent on urban wetlands in industrial zones globally.

Reimagining counter-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Guinea: Lessons from the theory of infrastructure for coordination and information sharing

ABSTRACT Piracy has been a longstanding focal point of Africa's maritime security discourse, initially spotlighting the Gulf of Aden and later pivoting to the Gulf of Guinea. Amid unique regional challenges, including fragmented governance and thinly stretched maritime capabilities, several supra-regional interventions have emerged, aiming to curb piracy. Notwithstanding a significant dip in piracy incidents from 2020 to 2022, the quest for enduring stability in the region remains. This paper leverages the theory of infrastructure to examine information-sharing and coordination within the Gulf of Guinea's counter-piracy landscape, with a focus on the Yaoundé Architecture. Methodologically, the article proffers a novel lens for understanding the region’s complex counter-piracy arena – one that could apply to other security contexts. Theoretically, it enriches scholarly counter-piracy debate by introducing the notion of counter-piracy infrastructures. Amongst other things, the paper posits that as part of a complex infrastructure, counter-piracy actors in the region have unique opportunities to grow as collective interlocutors, paving the way for fortified relationships that can strengthen counter-piracy efforts.

Petrophysical and seismo-stratigraphic analysis of the tertiary formations of the South onshore of the Rio Del Rey Basin (Cameroon margin, Gulf of Guinea) from well logs and seismic data

The present study used well log and seismic data to determine the main lithology types, characterize and evaluate the reservoirs properties and discuss about the hydrocarbon quality and productivity in the onshore south of the Rio Del Rey Basin (RDRB). The main results show seven lithologies inside the Isongo, Diongo and Nguti including clays, sandstones and clayey sandstones, the most dominant, and limestones, dolomites, sandstone limestones and clayey limestones, the less dominant. Seventeen reservoir zones with fifteen gas-bearing and two oil-bearing were identified in the Miocene sands of the Isongo, Diongo and Nguti Formations and very few in the Upper Oligocene sands of Akata Formation. The average values of petrophysical parameters obtained are Vshale (13.26–31.3%), NTG (64.48–87.07%), ∅eff (18.54–26.60%), ∅avg (23.27–33.59%), Sw (4.84–11.10%), Shc (88.90–95.16%), and K (1258.96–2187.26 mD). It shows that the identified reservoirs are of the good quality and can be commercially viable for the gas. Knowing that the RDRB and the neighbouring ones (Niger Delta, Rio Muni and Gabon basins which are OPEC members) have good petrophysical parameters, findings from this investigation show that the key difference between RDRB and others lay on the low continuity and vertical extension of these reservoirs, as well as the lower sedimentary thickness (6–7 km), the tectono-stratigraphic architecture and the production essentially focused on the Miocene horizons.

Eco-toxic Risk Assessment of microplastics in water and sediment across Nigeria Offshore, Gulf of Guinea.

Globally, the environmental impacts of microplastics (MPs) as emerging pollutants have drawn a lot of attention. This study aimed to assess the distribution and associated potential ecotoxic risk of MPs in the water and sediment of Nigeria's offshore waters. Water and sediment samples were collected from sixteen (16) stations in October 2023 and analysed using Attenuated Total Reflectance-Fourier Transform Infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy and stereomicroscopy. For physical characterization, the composition of MPs in sediment and water was 73 particles/kg and 48 particles/L, respectively, while the ATR-FTIR composition at the Eastern Zone (EZ) was 705 particles/L and 1033 particles/kg, the Central Zone (CZ) was 212 particles/L and 338 particles/kg, and the Western Zone (WZ) was 223 particles/L and 218 particles/kg. The identified MPs shapes were filaments, plastic films, fibre, and microbeads. Polychloroprene (CR) (18.10% and 16.86%) at EZ and CZ and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) (20.64%) at WZ were most abundant in sediment, respectively. In comparison, PVA (22.3%, 22.2%, and 21.08%) was most abundant across EZ, CZ, and WZ in water. The polymer-based plastic contamination factors (ppCf) and pollution load index (pPLI) showed low contamination and pollution load, and the polymer risk index (pRi) showed medium and low risk in water and sediment, respectively. The polymer ecological risks index (pERI) showed a high-risk level (pERI: 1,001-10,000) in water and sediment across the EZ, CZ, and WZ of the Nigerian offshore waters. In marine environments, an extensive environmental monitoring program and trend forecasting for microplastics are crucial. This study will provide theoretical and technical support for developing efficient legislation or policy on the prevention and control of plastic pollution.

Exploring steric sea level variability in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean: a three-decade study (1993–2022)

Sea level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to coastal regions worldwide, particularly affecting over 60 million people living below 10 m above sea level along the African coast. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal trends of sea level anomaly (SLA) and its components (thermosteric, halosteric and ocean mass) in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (ETAO) from 1993 to 2022. The SLA trend for the ETAO, derived from satellite altimetry, is 3.52 ± 0.47 mm/year, similar to the global average of 3.56 ± 0.67 mm/year. Of the three upwelling regions, the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) shows the highest regional trend of 3.42 ± 0.12 mm/year. Using the ARMORD3D dataset, a positive thermosteric sea level trend of 0.88 ± 0.04 mm/year is observed, particularly in the equatorial and southern Atlantic regions. The steric component drives the interannual SLA variability, while the ocean mass component dominates the long-term trends, as confirmed by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions for 2002–2022. For those two decades, the total SLR from altimetry amounts to 3.80 ± 0.8 mm/year, whilst the steric component is reduced to only 0.19 ± 0.05 mm/year, leaving a residual increase in the ETAO of 3.69 ± 0.5 mm/year. The independent mass change from GRACE amounts to 2.78 ± 0.6 mm/year for this region, which just closes the sea level budget within present uncertainty levels. Spatial analysis of the steric components indicates a warming along the equatorial African coast including the GoG and a freshening near Angola. Strong correlations with regional climate factors, particularly the Tropical South Atlantic Index, highlight the influence of persistent climate modes. These findings underscore the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to SLR in the ETAO, especially for densely populated coastal communities.

Analysis of sea surface temperature pattern, variability and their teleconnection with rainfall dynamics over the Gulf of Guinea

Spatial pattern and variability of sea surface temperature SST and their teleconnections with rainfall dynamics in the Gulf of Guinea (GOG) were examined in this study. SST and rainfall data of 50 years (1970–2022) were obtained from ERA5 and NOAA CPC at 0.25° x × 0.25° and 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution from longitudes 10°W and 8°W, 6oW, 4oW, and 2oW and latitudes 15°N, 5oN, 3oN, 15oS, 5oS, and 3oS, distributed along the Gulf of Guinea (GOG) respectively. Analysis was further carried out on twelve rainfall gridded stations distributed along the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) for the characterization of the Rainfall-SST teleconnection across the region while the relationship between the rainfall-SST anomalies, seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales was carried out using correlation analyses and composites. Interpolation of the meteorological variables was carried out using Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) from the ArcGIS Spatial Analyst Tool, Ferret, and CDO which were further employed to generate the seasonal and decadal rainfall and SST maps and statistical analysis of the study area. The result of the decadal and seasonal analysis of SST variability from 1970–1980,1980–1990, 1990–2000,2000–2010,2010–2020 and 2022 indicate that SST was highest from 2010 to 2020 at 28.91 °C and fluctuated between (28.49 °C) in the 1970–1980 and (28.08 °C) for the 1980–1990 decade While the seasonal pattern of SST showed marked variability with March–April and May(MAM) recording 29.34 °C with the lowest being in June-July–August(JJA) at 28.7 °C. In terms of decadal analysis of rainfall, the period 2010–2020 recorded the highest amount of rainfall along the coast (3,145.5 mm-3,928.3 mm while 1970–1980 recorded the lowest amount of rainfall (2,650–3.310 mm. To investigate the teleconnection between of SST and rainfall dynamics, statistical analysis was used where the SST values were plotted against seasonal rainfall in 11 stations namely Abidjan, Banjul, Accra, Guinea, Conakry, Cotonou, Dakar Doula, Freetown, Lagos, Lome, and Monrovia. The outcome of the statistical analysis and Standardized Anomaly Index used indicate that Banjul, Cotonou, Dakar, and Doula exhibited statistically insignificant correlation at 0.05 confidence level while Abidjan, Accra, Lagos, Lome, Freetown, and Monrovia showed positive and statistically significant correlation. The spatial pattern of seasonal rainfall climatology categorized into DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON reveals that JJA and SON produced 80% of rainfall in the Coastal GOG followed by MAM. The study affirmed that warm and cold tongues exist in the GOG alongside positive teleconnection and that the spatial variability of SST observed in this study corresponds positively with the decadal and seasonal variability of rainfall.

Microscopic study of the gonads in males and females of Euthynnus alletteratus (Rafinesque, 1810) and Sarda sarda (Bloch, 1793), two species of coastal affinity from the gulf of Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire

Microscopic study of the gonads in males and females of Euthynnus alletteratus (Rafinesque, 1810) and Sarda sarda (Bloch, 1793), two species of coastal affinity from the gulf of Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire

A Natural Jewel Threatened by Maritime Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

The Gulf of Guinea, an area rich in natural beauty and natural resources such as oil, gas, and fisheries, faces serious threats from widespread maritime piracy activities. The region is an important economic center, but maritime insecurity threatens its economic stability and development. Numerous regional and international initiatives have been undertaken to enhance security in these waterways, such as the Nigerian government's "Deep Blue" project and collaboration with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The UN Security Council has also passed a resolution to address this threat. Despite this, challenges remain significant due to the high number of attacks and significant economic impact. Addressing this issue requires continued cooperation between countries in the Gulf of Guinea region and the international community to ensure security and sustainable exploration in this region​.

Factors influencing foraminiferal assemblages in coastal sediments of the Cross River Estuary, Southeast Nigeria, Gulf of Guinea

Estuaries are crucial coastal ecosystems facing increased pressures from human activities. The Cross River Estuary in Nigeria is a vital tropical mesotidal estuary influenced by diverse anthropogenic and natural processes. This study investigated the distribution of foraminiferal assemblages in the estuary's sediments, alongside environmental parameters such as heavy metals, pH, depth, temperature, salinity, mean grain size, and dissolved oxygen. Field sampling involved collecting 55 bottom water and sediment samples, with laboratory analyses focusing on grain-size distribution, foraminiferal identification, and heavy metal concentrations. Results indicated that heavy metal concentrations, except for iron, were within permissible limits. A total of 287 benthic foraminiferal tests representing four species were identified. These were primarily agglutinated species, with Arenoparrella mexicana and Miliammina fusca being the most abundant. Foraminiferal distribution was influenced by sediment type, salinity, and pH, rather than heavy metal concentration. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) revealed weak relationships between foraminiferal species and environmental variables, indicating limited influence of mean grain size and heavy metals on foraminiferal distribution. The study highlights the adaptability of certain foraminiferal species to a wide range of environmental conditions and underscores the need for continuous monitoring of the estuarine ecosystem to assess the impacts of ongoing anthropogenic activities. The findings provide a baseline for future environmental assessments and the use of foraminifera as bioindicators in tropical estuarine environments.

Molecular genetic diversity analysis of the Nigerian laughing dove (Streptopelia senegalensis) and related species using selected mitochondrial genes

Nigerian laughing doves (Streptopelia senegalensis) are small birds with long tail and living in bushes of the Sub-Saharan regions of African continent, the middle East and Asia, especially India. They are used for food, medicinal and religious purposes in Nigeria. Despite their usage, there is a lack of information on the genetic diversity of laughing doves in Nigeria. This study investigates taxonomic order and diversity of Nigerian laughing doves based on the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and cytochrome B (CYTB). The results showed 20 haplotypes within the 28 Nigerian coupled with Global Streptopelia genus using concatenated sequences. The Nigerian laughing dove constitute 16 distinct haplotypes. The haplotype diversity was 0.743 ± 0.070, and nucleotide diversity 0.154 ± 0.101 within Nigerian population using COI sequences. Phylogenetic tree showed that Nigerian laughing doves were in the same monophyletic clade with other Streptopela orientalis, S. decocto and S. chinensis; and this confirmed that Nigerian laughing doves might have shared descendant. The median-joining network further grouped Nigerian laughing doves into two: the first group consisting of Nigerian populations only, while the second group are with Saudi Arabian and Djiboutian populations. Population expansion was revealed in Nigerian dove individuals. This study revealed 16 unique haplotypes among Nigerian laughing dove population using concatenated sequences. Interestingly, CYTB showed clustering in African laughing doves (For instance, Nigerian individuals shared haplotypes with Sao Tome and Principe, an island country in the Gulf of Guinea, the western equatorial coast of Central Africa). The current data is the first report on genetic diversity of Nigerian laughing dove using mitochondrial COI and CYTB genes.

Influence of the Remote Equatorial Dynamics on the Interannual Variability Along the Northern Coast of the Gulf of Guinea

AbstractThis study explores the oceanic connection between the equatorial dynamics and the coastal variability along the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea on interannual timescales, based on experiments with a high‐resolution tropical Atlantic Ocean model over 1958–2015. Equatorial Kelvin waves, forced by wind‐stress anomalies in the west‐central equatorial basin, significantly control the interannual fluctuations of the coastal sea‐level and subsurface temperature near the thermocline (>70%), leaving only a marginal role for the local forcing contribution. The dynamical coastal response exhibits a clear propagative nature, with poleward propagations (0.75–1.2 m.s−1) from Cameroon to Liberia. Because the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea is close to the equatorial waveguide, the coastal variability is influenced by both equatorially‐forced coastal trapped waves and reflected equatorial Rossby waves. Furthermore, remote equatorial forcing explains more of the surface temperature variance for the coastal systems associated with clear upwelling characteristics such as Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, where subsurface/surface coupling is more efficient. The surface thermal amplitude and timing is shaped by the coastal stratification and circulation and exhibits a marked seasonal modulation, so that the timing of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies relative to the dynamical signature lacks consistency, making SST a less reliable variable for tracking coastal propagations in the Gulf of Guinea. Our findings open the possibility of predicting interannual changes in coastal conditions off Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana a few months in advance, to anticipate impacts on fish habitats and resources, and to facilitate proactive measures for sustainable management and conservation efforts.

Predicting malaria hyper endemic zones in West Africa using a regional scale dynamical malaria model

Due to the continuing large number of malaria-related deaths in tropical Africa, the need to develop a robust Malaria Early Warning System (MEWS) for effective action is growing to guide cost-effective implementation of interventions. This study employs a two-stage hierarchical evaluation technique to evaluate the ability of the VECTRI malaria model to simulate malaria dynamics at seasonal time scale (1 - 7 months) over Nigeria and West Africa. Two sets of malaria simulations are considered. The first set is based on VECTRI simulations driven by observed rainfall and temperature datasets (hereafter referred to as control run). The second is based on malaria simulations driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) System5 ensemble seasonal forecasting system (hereafter referred to as Forecast run). Different metrics are employed to assess the skill of the VECTRI malaria model. Results based on the control run indicate that the model can reproduce hyper-endemic zones and the evolution of malaria cases, particularly the observed increase in cases with decreasing population density. Despite having significant biases and low correlation, the model successfully predicts annual anomalies in malaria cases across Nigeria, particularly in the savannah region that experience large malaria burden. Annual correlations between the VECTRI Forecast run and the VECTRI Control run are relatively low at all lead times (LT) and for each start date (SD) across West Africa, although correlation generally increases from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel. Despite low correlations, the Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS) reveals that the model has a statistically significant skill in predicting malaria occurrences across all categories of malaria cases, regardless of start date or lead time. While the Guinea Forest has the strongest RPSS, the increase or decrease in skill from the first to seventh lead time varies significantly across the region. In addition, the VECTRI malaria model has a good ability to discriminate variability in malaria cases across all regions, with an average Area Under the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve (AUC) of approximately 0.62. Our findings suggest that the VECTRI malaria model could be used as a reliable Malaria Early Warning System (MEWS), particularly for identifying malaria hyper-endemic zones in West Africa at seasonal time scale.

Nigeria’s Foreign Policy and the Major Geographical Drivers

The thinking in the literature is that states develop different foreign policy interests and priorities depending on their geographical endowments. That is, the foreign policy of a state is sensitive to its geography. This article examines the defining role that geographical descriptors have played in the conduct of Nigeria’s foreign policy. Relying on data generated from major ranking bodies/platforms and other secondary sources, this paper contends that geographical factors have always shaped Nigeria’s foreign policy towards the coterminous or contiguous countries, Gulf of Guinea, ECOWAS region, and African continent. While Nigeria has leveraged its size, location, natural and human endowments to launch itself into global relevance, there are major constraints. These include the ineffective governance of Nigeria’s land and borders and occasional border disputes with the adjoining states, poor demographics in terms of nutrition, health, education and work, and the mismanagement of the proceeds from the country’s natural resource endowments. These problems must be addressed if Nigeria is to harness the full benefits of its geography.