Gulf Cooperation Council Economies Research Articles

A Dynamic Interrelationships among Clean Energy, Environmental Pollution, and Economic Growth in GCC Economies: A Panel ARDL Approach

The paper investigates the interplay between clean energy, environmental pollution reduction, and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1980 to 2019, utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. The study underscores the global transition towards cleaner energy sources and its implications for the region. In assessing the determinants of economic growth, the findings reveal a positive and significant short- and long-term impact of energy production, with energy consumption exhibiting a positive and significant effect solely in the long term. The absence of a confirmed relationship in the short term is notable. Causality tests demonstrate a significant link from both energy consumption types to environmental pollution, alongside causal relationships from urbanization, energy production, and consumption to economic growth. Moreover, the results include the pivotal role of energy production in driving GDP growth, caution in short-term energy consumption effects, and significant causal links between energy consumption and environmental pollution. The recommendations to incentivize sustainable energy production, engage in long-term energy consumption planning, and adopt integrated urbanization policies provide actionable insights for policymakers. These suggestions are aimed at guiding the GCC countries in balancing the pursuit of economic growth with environmental sustainability—a delicate equilibrium that necessitates careful consideration of various factors.

The resilience of Shariah-compliant investments: Probing the static and dynamic connectedness between gold-backed cryptocurrencies and GCC equity markets

This study investigates the return spillover between the Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies and equity markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study utilizes the QVAR method to determine the quantile connectedness among the asset classes and identify optimal portfolio weights across different economic conditions. The results show that the GCC economies have stronger connections with each other than with the cryptocurrencies. However, there is an increase in connections between the GCC economies and cryptocurrencies during extreme events. This suggests that extreme news can amplify the relationship between the Islamic cryptocurrencies and GCC markets. The findings suggest that asymmetric tails exist in the connectedness between the asset classes, meaning that the relationship between them is stronger during extreme market conditions. Accordingly, the dynamic connectedness analysis reveals varying patterns of connectedness across different periods, outlining pivotal portfolio implications. The study also suggests optimal weights for portfolio managers and investors and outlines the least expensive hedging strategy. The research proposes that investors in the GCC region could potentially mitigate the risk of their Islamic equity portfolios by incorporating the Islamic Shariah-compliant gold-backed cryptocurrencies in their portfolio. Further studies could explore the role of other factors such as liquidity, market volatility, and investor sentiment in the relationship between asset classes. Future research could examine the effects of other types of news, such as macroeconomic news, on the relationship between asset classes. Additional research could focus on the implications of incorporating Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies in a portfolio for investors beyond the GCC region.

The Nexus between tourism-energy-environmental degradation: Does financial development matter in GCC countries?

Environmental sustainability, energy consumption, and tourism are the most discussed topics in the literature. However, limited studies have catered to the relationship among these variables. From this perspective: the current study aims to find the nexus between tourism, energy alternatives, financial development, and pollution emissions by targeting the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies. We employ the data of six GCC economies for the years 2000–2019 and adopt fully modified ordinary least square and generalized least square approaches to establish the regression. The findings reveal a positive impact on the number of tourist arrivals (ITAs) while a negative impact on tourism receipts on pollution emissions. Similarly, fossil fuel energy (FFE) shows a positive while renewable energy depicts a negative relationship with CO2 emissions. This positive impact of tourist arrivals and fossil fuel energy was moderated by financial development. In addition to individual analysis, the developed financial sector can help to reduce the negative externalities of ITA and FFE. The empirical analysis further documents the positive impact of all control variables including foreign investment, economic growth, and gross capital formation on CO2 emissions. Based on empirical results, it is recommended to bring financial development into the picture to reduce the negative impact of ITA and FFE on environmental quality. This study put forward the literature by adding innovative thoughts regarding the moderating role of financial development in the nexus between tourism, energy alternatives, and CO2 emissions.

The impact of global renewable energy demand on economic growth – evidence from GCC countries

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between global renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 2001 to 2019.Design/methodology/approachThis paper used a panel regression model to study the six GCC countries over the period from 2001 to 2019.FindingsAs expected, the findings indicated a significant and negative relationship between global renewable energy consumption and GCC economic growth. Additionally, there was a positive and significant relationship between GCC economic growth and the control variables, specifically labor, capital, CO2 emissions and non-renewable energy production.Practical implicationsThe results are of great importance to policymakers in GCC oil-exporting countries, as expected growth in renewable energy consumption will lower their economic growth in the future. Hence, they should first diversify their economy and lower their dependence on oil. Second, these countries can invest in solar energy through international joint ventures, especially with North African countries in close proximity to Europe, to become leaders in solar energy production.Originality/valueHow global energy consumption is related to GCC countries’ economic growth remains unclear, not only in GCC countries but also in many oil-exporting countries around the world, so future studies are needed. Furthermore, GCC governments will be able to create appropriate policies for the green economy and achieve their objectives if they have a comprehensive understanding of how global growth in renewable energy demand affects GCC economies.

Relative Impact of the U.S. Energy Market Sentiments on Stocks and ESG Index Returns: Evidence from GCC Countries

In this study, we provide empirical evidence on the relative impact of energy market sentiments on the stock and ESG index returns in the U.S. and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies. Specifically, we study movements in four distinct categories of energy sentiments (natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and heating oil) displayed by professional investors and investigate their relative impact on ESG investments and stock returns in the U.S. and GCC economies. We employ the recently developed automatic time series forecasting methodology Autometrics to examine the postulated relationships. The results of the regression models suggest that there is a significant negative impact of stock sentiments and a positive impact of energy sentiments on the S&P 500 returns. However, in the case of the U.S. energy companies' returns, there are significantly higher effects of only energy market sentiments (mainly crude oil and RBOB gasoline). In the case of the GCC stock markets, there are significant positive impacts of crude oil sentiments and the S&P 500 of varying degrees of strength. The most significant impact of crude oil sentiments is observed in UAE and Saudi Arabia and is almost of the same magnitude as those on the U.S. energy companies' returns. These results are consistent with arguments provided in behavioral finance studies that investors prefer bigger profits over social returns during bullishness and step back from social investing when better investment opportunities are available. Also, ESG investing may be preferred during bearishness by utilitarian investors to generate abnormal returns during such lean periods.

Exploring the role of oil shocks on the financial stability of Gulf Cooperation Council countries

AbstractThis study explores the relationship and connectedness between oil returns and financial stresses in six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using daily data from September 21, 2006 to May 31, 2019. The Bayesian Graph‐based Structural Vector Autoregression (BGSVAR) model is utilised to estimate and analyse the direction of causality. In addition, the spillover approach is utilised to examine connectedness and risk transmission patterns between oil returns and financial stresses in the GCC economies in both time and frequency domains. The empirical analysis of the BGSVAR model shows that oil returns and financial stresses have both a contemporary and temporal relationship, whilst findings from the spillovers analysis show that oil returns tend to act as a net transmitter of spillovers to GCC financial markets in both medium and long‐run horizons but a net receiver of spillovers in the short‐run.

Wagner’s Law vs. Keynesian Theory: The Case for GCC Countries

The relationship between government expenditure and economic growth is continually discussed. In some cases, one factor affects the other, and in other cases, the relationship does not exist. This paper provides further evidence on this relationship in the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries during the period from 1992–2020. This research tests the view of Wagner’s hypothesis that economic growth positively affects government expenditure. It also tests the opposite direction, which is the Keynesian view. Utilizing a panel data regression, the results prove a weak effect of both views for the GCC economies. Government expenditure is highly affected by changes in oil prices. Some governments cut their expenditure as a result of a drop in oil prices and others maintain current expenditure levels, at least in the short run. The form of government spending and the current structure of government finance in GCC economies prevent these two views from being valid.

The impact of financial inclusion on digital payment solution uptake within the Gulf Cooperation Council Economies

Recognizing the role of society in the sustainability of payment system innovation through the quadruple helix framework, this study analyzes the causal influence of demand-side financial inclusion indicators on society's uptake of digital payment solutions (DPS) within the regional economy of the Gulf Cooperation Council. To this end, the present study relies on data extracted from Global Findex surveys (in 2014 and 2017), as well as the economic theory of random utility maximization, to model individuals' DPS uptake decisions “ceteris paribus.” The maximum likelihood estimation revealed no gender-based gradient in DPS uptake behaviors; additionally, financial inclusion indicators such as transaction account ownership and debit card ownership did not significantly influence endogenous or exogenous DPS uptake decisions between 2013 and 2017. However, all remaining financial inclusion indicators did significantly influence DPS uptake. Assessing these findings through the lens of open innovation and the ongoing efforts from the Arab Regional Payment System project, which seeks to expand financial inclusion by facilitating access to transaction accounts, there is reasonable evidence to suggest that complementary financial inclusion policies addressing the use dimension of DPS (i.e., extending access to saving and borrowing, along with digital payroll practices for both private and public enterprises) would contribute to more effective policy on financial inclusion in the region.

The GCC Economies in the Wake of COVID-19: Toward Post-Oil Sustainable Knowledge-Based Economies?

The economic crisis and decline in oil prices caused by the pandemic led governments in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region to step up their diversification efforts. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries were already striving to diversify their economies away from dependence on hydrocarbons, with varying degrees of success. Their development plans and visions aim to shift their economies away from oil and gas toward knowledge-based post-oil economies with solid and sustainable foundations. Accordingly, this paper has three goals. Firstly, it aims to present the GCC’s socio-economic features and highlight the importance and relevance of economic diversification. Secondly, it seeks to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GCC economies and evaluate how the pandemic spurred diversification initiatives. Thirdly, the paper aims to analyze the present state of the knowledge-based economy in the GCC region, including its strengths, drawbacks, and prospects for the future. The methodology of the paper is based on a semi-systematic literature review that includes academic and gray literature. The findings highlight that throughout the previous several decades, continuous efforts to develop the status of ICT, education, innovation, and entrepreneurship in several GCC countries have contributed to improving their international competitiveness, as seen by advancements in rankings issued by various international organizations. Furthermore, political stability, significant financial resources, and a stable credit rating provide these countries with solid foundations for future sustainable development. However, several functional, structural, and cultural factors challenge the diversification process and the shift toward a knowledge-based economy.

The asymmetric relationship between foreign direct investment, oil prices and carbon emissions: evidence from Gulf Cooperative Council economies

We investigate the asymmetric nonlinear link between foreign direct investment, oil prices, and CO2 emissions for the Gulf Cooperation Council nations, using foreign direct investment and oil price data. As foreign direct investment is positively associated with carbon emissions in the long run and oil prices have positive, significant effects on CO2 emissions, our findings support the pollution-haven hypothesis. Furthermore, these variables have an asymmetric nonlinear relationship, which corresponds to the theoretical expectations of the pollution-haven hypothesis. We also find that negative changes in foreign direct investment have positive, significant impacts on carbon emissions in the short run, implying that foreign enterprises utilize green technologies in their manufacturing processes in the short run. In the long run, however, negative changes in oil prices are positively associated with carbon emissions. These findings should help Gulf Cooperation Council economies focus on policies that encourage foreign direct investment in green rather than dirty industries in order to ensure environmental sustainability.

The effects of natural gas and oil consumption on CO2 emissions in GCC countries:asymmetry analysis.

Oil and gas are key energy sources in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The present study examines the asymmetrical environmental effects of these energy sources and also tests the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) from 1975 to 2019. In the long run, the EKC is corroborated in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. But the EKC is not validated in the GCC Panel. Increasing oil consumption raises carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in all investigated GCC countries, and decreasing oil consumption reduces CO2 emissions in Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The effect of oil consumption is found asymmetrical in Qatar and symmetrical in the rest of GCC countries. Increasing natural gas consumption (NGC) carries a positive effect in all investigated GCC countries, and decreasing NGC reduces emissions in Oman, Qatar, and the UAE. Moreover, NGC's effects are asymmetrically in all GCC countries except Qatar. In the panel estimates, both increasing and decreasing oil and NGC have positive effects on CO2 emissions. The long-run effect of oil consumption on CO2 emissions is larger than the effect of NGC in most GCC economies and panel results. In the short run, increasing and decreasing oil consumption and NGC have a positive effect on emissions in all investigated economies except Saudi Arabia. In the long run, coefficients of decreasing oil consumption are found significantly greater than coefficients of increasing NGC in Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the whole GCC. This finding corroborates that increasing CO2 emissions with increasing NGC is lower than decreasing CO2 emissions with decreasing oil consumption. Hence, we recommend these countries switch from oil consumption to NGC to reduce overall CO2 emissions.

The Fiscal and Monetary Policies and Environment in GCC Countries: Analysis of Territory and Consumption-Based CO2 Emissions

Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies are necessary for economic and environmental development. The present research studies the impact of monetary policy and fiscal policy on Territory-Based CO2 (TBC) and Consumption-Based CO2 (CBC) emissions in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies from 1990–2019. The cointegration is corroborated through various tests, and long-term relationships are found in both TBC and CBC models. Government expenditures have long-term positive effects on both TBC and CBC emissions and short-term positive effects on TBC emissions in the region. Money supply negatively affects the TBC and CBC emissions in the long run and positively affects TBC and CBC emissions in the short run. Hence, monetary policy needs a long time to have positive ecological effects in the GCC region. Moreover, fiscal policy in both the long and short run and monetary policy in the short run have scale effects in GCC economies. Therefore, we recommend reducing fiscal measures and encouraging monetary policy in the long run to have positive environmental outcomes in the region.

Economics of Artificial Intelligence in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

This article reviews how artificial intelligence is being developed and used in key economic sectors in the Gulf Cooperation Council economies.

Presence of women on boards in industrial firms: evidence from GCC countries financial markets

ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate the phenomenon of women's presence on the boards of industrial public companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The first question deals with the relationship between board characteristics, governance variables and women on boards. The second question weighs the impact of the company-specific characteristics on the presence of women on boards. Our study focuses on 125 public companies listed on the Gulf financial markets and operating in the industrial sector for the year 2019. Results indicate that both corporate governance and company-specific variables can explain the presence of women on boards. First, our results give evidence that the appointment of women directors is positively related to institutional ownership and board independence, and negatively related to board size. Second, the appointment of women directors is positively related to firm performance, but negatively related to firm size and leverage. Hence, taken altogether, the evidence suggests that the appointment of women on board is driven by the business case. The study stresses on the need to improve governance variables and to activate policies supporting women’s roles in GCC economies as their integration on the labor market and their participation in senior management is a means to achieve justice and fairness.

The Effect of Energy Consumption and Economic Growth on Environmental Sustainability in the GCC Countries: Does Financial Development Matter?

Achieving environmental sustainability whilst minimizing the climate change effect has become a global endeavor. Hence, this study examined the effect of energy consumption, economic growth, financial development, and globalization on CO2 emissions in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The research utilized a dataset stretching from 1995 to 2018. In a bid to investigate these associations, the study applied cross-sectional dependence (CSD), slope heterogeneity (SH), Pesaran unit root, Westerlund cointegration, cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL), and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) causality approaches. The outcomes of the CSD and SH tests indicated that using the first-generation techniques produces misleading results. The panel unit root analysis unveiled that the series are I (1). Furthermore, the outcomes of the cointegration test revealed a long-run association between CO2 emissions and the regressors, suggesting evidence of cointegration. The findings of the CS-ARDL showed that economic growth and energy consumption decrease environmental sustainability, while globalization improves it. The study also validated the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for GCC economies. In addition, the results of the DH causality test demonstrated a feedback causality association between economic growth and CO2 emissions and between financial development and CO2 emissions. Moreover, there is a one-way causality from energy consumption and globalization to CO2 emissions in GCC economies. According to the findings, environmental pollution in GCC countries is output-driven, which means that it is determined by the amount of energy generated and consumed.

FDI and economic growth in the GCC: does the oil sector matter?

This paper investigates the impact of sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth by validating the resource curse hypothesis in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Applying OLS (Fixed and Random effects), Instrumental Variables (IV) and Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML) estimations, empirical results indicate that resource-FDI inflows hinder economic growth in the GCC economies, while non-resource FDI has an insignificant effect on growth. Moreover, the total Greenfield FDI inflows deter economic growth in GCC economies. These results give evidence on the crowding-out effect of resource-FDI. This paper opens new insights for policymakers in designing a comprehensive policy on direct FDI inflows (resource and non-resource) for attaining sustainable economic development for the long run.

Modeling the dynamic links among natural resources, economic globalization, disaggregated energy consumption, and environmental quality: Fresh evidence from GCC economies

The accelerated speed of economic growth has come with challenges, including depletion of natural resources, issues related to globalization, and degradation of the environment. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies are rich in mineral resources, and economic globalization has put them in the spotlight for the developed world. This paper investigates the impact of natural resource abundance, economic globalization, and disaggregated energy consumption on GCC countries' environmental quality by considering urbanization and economic growth from 1990 to 2018, thus filling a gap in the literature. The study applies an advanced econometric approach, a cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) estimator, for short-run and long-run estimation that allows heterogeneity in the slope parameters and dependencies across countries. The findings show that natural resource abundance significantly improves environmental quality, that economic globalization and renewable energy consumption mitigate emission levels in the GCC economies, and that urbanization, economic growth, and non-renewable energy consumption significantly deteriorate environmental quality. The paper provides novel empirical evidence and policy recommendations for sustainable development.

Ownership structure, board independence and auditor choice: evidence from GCC countries

PurposeThis paper investigates the role of board independence in determining the relationship between firm ownership and auditor choice.Design/methodology/approachThe research uses a logistic regression to test the direct and indirect effects of ownership structure on the decision to hire a high-quality (Big 4) audit firm. The sample consists of 207 non-financial firms listed on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries stock markets between 2009 and 2016.FindingsEmpirical findings show that family ownership is associated with a negative and significant coefficient suggesting that an increase in family ownership decreases the likelihood that the firm will employ a Big 4 auditor. This finding suggests that family owners are reluctant to impose external monitoring. Furthermore, we find a positive relationship between institutional ownership and auditor choice supporting the conjecture that institutional investors are more likely to choose a Big 4 auditor. The results also reveal that the effects of family and institutional ownership on auditor choice are partially mediated by independent directors.Practical implicationsThis study has important implications for GCC economies whose policymakers and regulators may need to address the conflict between controlling and non-controlling shareholders. It provides guidance for firms in the construction and implementation of their own corporate governance policies. Furthermore, the study findings may be useful to investors, assisting them in making better informed decisions and aids other interested parties in gaining a better understanding of the role played by ownership structure in the quality of auditors. Finally, the paper highlights the importance of the composition of the board of directors in increasing the likelihood of hiring a high-quality audit firm.Originality/valueThe main contribution of the present paper is to examine the board composition as a potential mediating variable between ownership structure and auditor choice. Moreover, it highlights the issue of improving governance mechanisms.

Impact of FDI inflows on bank loans in Gulf Cooperation Council economies: an empirical insight

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the impact of FDI inflows on bank loans in aggregate as well as at the level of conventional and Islamic banks in GCC countries. The paper also tests hypotheses of direct and indirect impacts of FDI inflow and FDI stock on bank loans.Design/methodology/approachThe sample comprises a total of 70 banks (45 conventional and 25 Islamic banks). The period under consideration is 1995–2017. Static panel and dynamic panel GMM estimation techniques are applied.FindingsEmpirical results indicate that inflowing FDI and FDI stock have a significant negative direct impact on loans of GCC banks. The results lend support to the direct channel hypothesis for the effect of FDI on bank loans and find no evidence in support of the indirect channel hypothesis. FDI inflows affect bank loans directly via increased FDI-related liquidity, business activity or excessive competition in the banking market; they are not channeled through macro variables. Loans from conventional banks appear to be more affected than those from Islamic banks.Practical implicationsGiven the attractiveness of the GCC economies to foreign investment, the potential volatility of investment-induced instability to the financial system in these economies should be on the radar of the central banks. Attracting more FDI is expected to increase overall national productivity through competition. However, government would be wise to enact a policy to maximize benefits and minimize potential harm to local industry. In addition, to achieve the goal of the new economic model, in turning the GCC economies into high-income and knowledge-driven economies by 2030, enhancement of efficiency and the quality of the workforce will contribute to creating productivity-driven economies.Originality/valueIt is widely recognized that FDI inflows are of great importance to the financial performance development of emerging and developing countries. However, their impact on bank loans has so far not been subject to accurate empirical assessment. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing an in-depth quantitative analysis of the impact of FDI inflow and FDI stock, separately, on bank loans for both conventional and Islamic banks in GCC countries. It distinguishes between direct and indirect channels through which FDI inflows may affect bank loans. The study uses both static and dynamic panel GMM estimation techniques to analyze the data.

Influence of fiscal policy on GDP: an empirical study of GCC countries

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries of late have made considerable attempts to achieve financial consolidation. However, this was limited to cuts in government expenditures. While scholars suggest the need for overall fiscal policy adjustments, countries should pay particular attention to efficient revenue generation and public debt management. In this paper, an attempt has been made to examine public finance of the GCC countries. The study has taken into account four significant components of public finance: public revenue, inflation, government expenditure and public debt. The co-integration rank test using the vector auto-regression method is employed to determine whether the chosen variables play any influential role in the GDP of the GCC economies. The results suggest that the effect of the consumer price inflation, total government revenue, revenue (percent of non-oil), and total government gross debt have a strong influence on the GDP of these economies. Thus, this means that the countries in the GCC region should focus on inflation, revenue, and public debt to have robust, viable and comprehensive development.