From petrodollars to green power: Fiscal stability and green transition in GCC economies

Abstract

This study examines the influence of fiscal stability, characterized by fiscal buffers, on the green transition in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies from 2005 to 2023. We apply two-way fixed effects, system generalized method of moments (GMM), method of moments quantile regression (MMQR), and panel causality analysis to explore these dynamics. Our findings underscore that a positive fiscal buffer resulting from a significant spread between oil prices and fiscal breakeven levels exerts a substantial positive impact on green transition efforts in GCC countries. The results reveal that countries with higher levels of renewable energy production capacity and urbanization demonstrate more pronounced advancements in green transition initiatives. Conversely, countries grappling with unstable macroeconomic conditions, such as high inflation and external debt, face considerable challenges in achieving significant improvements in green transition outcomes. Additionally, our analysis shows that fossil fuel energy fiscal subsidies negatively influence green transition efforts in the GCC region. Our study emphasizes that policymakers in GCC countries should pursue a dual-pronged strategy: leveraging positive fiscal buffers to diversify their economies in light of potential benefits from high oil prices, and channelling oil and fiscal revenues towards enhancing renewable energy production capacities. This approach aims not only to diversify economic foundations but also to strategically strengthen the infrastructure necessary for sustainable renewable energy transitions in the region over the long term.