Gt Yr Research Articles

Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week

Abstract. The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is declining as mass gain from snow accumulation is exceeded by mass loss from surface meltwater runoff, marine-terminating glacier calving and submarine melting, and basal melting. Here we use the input–output (IO) method to estimate mass change from 1840 through next week. Surface mass balance (SMB) gains and losses come from a semi-empirical SMB model from 1840 through 1985 and three regional climate models (RCMs; HIRHAM/HARMONIE, Modèle Atmosphérique Régional – MAR, and RACMO – Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel) from 1986 through next week. Additional non-SMB losses come from a marine-terminating glacier ice discharge product and a basal mass balance model. From these products we provide an annual estimate of Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through 1985 and a daily estimate at sector and region scale from 1986 through next week. This product updates daily and is the first IO product to include the basal mass balance which is a source of an additional ∼24 Gt yr−1 of mass loss. Our results demonstrate an accelerating ice-sheet-scale mass loss and general agreement (coefficient of determination, r2, ranges from 0.62 to 0.94) among six other products, including gravitational, volume, and other IO mass balance estimates. Results from this study are available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/OHI23Z (Mankoff et al., 2021).

A 15-year circum-Antarctic iceberg calving dataset derived from continuous satellite observations

Abstract. Iceberg calving is the main process that facilitates the dynamic mass loss of ice sheets into the ocean, which accounts for approximately half of the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet. Fine-scale calving variability observations can help reveal the calving mechanisms and identify the principal processes that influence how the changing climate affects global sea level through the ice shelf buttressing effect on the Antarctic ice sheet. Iceberg calving from entire ice shelves for short time intervals or from specific ice shelves for long time intervals has been monitored before, but there is still a lack of consistent, long-term, and high-precision records on independent calving events for all of the Antarctic ice shelves. In this study, a 15-year annual iceberg calving product measuring every independent calving event larger than 1 km2 over all of the Antarctic ice shelves that occurred from August 2005 to August 2020 was developed based on 16 years of continuous satellite observations. First, the expansion of the ice shelf frontal coastline was simulated according to ice velocity; following this, the calved areas, which are considered to be the differences between the simulated coastline, were manually delineated, and the actual coastline was derived from the corresponding satellite imagery, based on multisource optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The product provides detailed information on each calving event, including the associated year of occurrence, area, size, average thickness, mass, recurrence interval, and measurement uncertainties. A total of 1975 annual calving events larger than 1 km2 were detected on the Antarctic ice shelves from August 2005 to August 2020. The average annual calved area was measured as 3549.1 km2 with an uncertainty value of 14.3 km2, and the average calving rate was measured as 770.3 Gt yr−1 with an uncertainty value of 29.5 Gt yr−1. The number of calving events, calved area, and calved mass fluctuated moderately during the first decade, followed by a dramatic increase from 2015/2016 to 2019/2020. During the dataset period, large ice shelves, such as the Ronne–Filchner and Ross ice shelves, advanced with low calving frequency, whereas small- and medium-sized ice shelves retreated and calved more frequently. Iceberg calving of ice shelves is most prevalent in West Antarctica, followed by the Antarctic Peninsula and Wilkes Land in East Antarctica. The annual iceberg calving event dataset of Antarctic ice shelves provides consistent and precise calving observations with the longest time coverage. The dataset provides multidimensional variables for each independent calving event that can be used to study detailed spatial–temporal variations in Antarctic iceberg calving. The dataset can also be used to study ice sheet mass balance, calving mechanisms, and responses of iceberg calving to climate change. The dataset, entitled “Annual iceberg calving dataset of the Antarctic ice shelves (2005–2020)”, is shared via the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center: https://doi.org/10.11888/Glacio.tpdc.271250 (Qi et al., 2021). In addition, the average annual calving rate of 18.4±6.7 Gt yr−1 for calving events smaller than 1 km2 of the Antarctic ice shelves and the calving rate of 166.7±15.2 Gt yr−1 for the marine-terminating glaciers were estimated.

Assessment of CO2 geological storage capacity of saline aquifers under the North Sea

In this study, potential storage sites in the subsurface of the North Sea are analyzed to estimate the available CO2 storage capacity. In total 441 sites in five countries (United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands and Germany) are studied in terms of geophysical characteristics and potential capacity. Instead of a simple volume-based approach that tends to over-estimate capacity, we consider storage limited by the time-dependent pressure increase in each injection well. We used literature data to estimate the geological and physical properties of the storage formations. The study confirmed a tremendous potential for CO2 storage approaching 440 Gt with a possible injection rate of 22 Gt yr−1. The United Kingdom can potentially store more than 230 Gt of CO2 over 30 years, a value 20 times higher than its current emissions, while the same scales apply for the Netherlands with 147 Gt CO2 potential. The thirteen oil and gas fields examined in Denmark are able to store around 4 Gt of CO2 over three decades at a rate of 127 Mt yr−1 covering more than twice the current emissions, while Norway can store 48 Gt from just 10 large saline aquifers. Despite the potential uncertainties in the data, there is sufficient capacity for CO2 storage to play a significant role in Europe to avert a temperature increase of more than 1.5 °C this century.

Downscaled surface mass balance in Antarctica: impacts of subsurface processes and large-scale atmospheric circulation

Abstract. Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) is largely determined by precipitation over the continent and subject to regional climate variability related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and other climatic drivers at the large scale. Locally however, firn and snowpack processes are important in determining SMB and the total mass balance of Antarctica and global sea level. Here, we examine factors that influence Antarctic SMB and attempt to reconcile the outcome with estimates for total mass balance determined from the GRACE satellites. This is done by having the regional climate model HIRHAM5 forcing two versions of an offline subsurface model, to estimate Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) SMB from 1980 to 2017. The Lagrangian subsurface model estimates Antarctic SMB of 2473.5±114.4 Gt yr−1, while the Eulerian subsurface model variant results in slightly higher modelled SMB of 2564.8±113.7 Gt yr−1. The majority of this difference in modelled SMB is due to melt and refreezing over ice shelves and demonstrates the importance of firn modelling in areas with substantial melt. Both the Eulerian and the Lagrangian SMB estimates are within uncertainty ranges of each other and within the range of other SMB studies. However, the Lagrangian version has better statistics when modelling the densities. Further, analysis of the relationship between SMB in individual drainage basins and the SAM is carried out using a bootstrapping approach. This shows a robust relationship between SAM and SMB in half of the basins (13 out of 27). In general, when SAM is positive there is a lower SMB over the plateau and a higher SMB on the westerly side of the Antarctic Peninsula, and vice versa when the SAM is negative. Finally, we compare the modelled SMB to GRACE data by subtracting the solid ice discharge, and we find that there is a good agreement in East Antarctica but large disagreements over the Antarctic Peninsula. There is a large difference between published estimates of discharge that make it challenging to use mass reconciliation in evaluating SMB models on the basin scale.

First Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Estimate 21st Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt.

Future Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt projections are limited by the lack of explicit melt calculations within most global climate models and the high computational cost of dynamical downscaling with regional climate models (RCMs). Here, we train artificial neural networks (ANNs) to obtain relationships between quantities consistently available from global climate model simulations and annually integrated GrIS surface melt. To this end, we train the ANNs with model output from the Community Earth System Model 2.1 (CESM2), which features an interactive surface melt calculation based on a downscaled surface energy balance. We find that ANNs compare well with an independent CESM2 simulation and RCM simulations forced by a CMIP6 subset. The ANNs estimate a melt increase for 2,081–2,100 ranging from 414 ± 275 Gt yr−1 (SSP1‐2.6) to 1,378 ± 555 Gt yr−1 (SSP5‐8.5) for the full CMIP6 suite. The primary source of uncertainty throughout the 21st century is the spread of climate model sensitivity.

What is the surface mass balance of Antarctica? An intercomparison of regional climate model estimates

Abstract. We compare the performance of five different regional climate models (RCMs) (COSMO-CLM2, HIRHAM5, MAR3.10, MetUM, and RACMO2.3p2), forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis, in simulating the near-surface climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica. All models simulate Antarctic climate well when compared with daily observed temperature and pressure, with nudged models matching daily observations slightly better than free-running models. The ensemble mean annual SMB over the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) including ice shelves is 2329±94 Gt yr−1 over the common 1987–2015 period covered by all models. There is large interannual variability, consistent between models due to variability in the driving ERA-Interim reanalysis. Mean annual SMB is sensitive to the chosen period; over our 30-year climatological mean period (1980 to 2010), the ensemble mean is 2483 Gt yr−1. However, individual model estimates vary from 1961±70 to 2519±118 Gt yr−1. The largest spatial differences between model SMB estimates are in West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and around the Transantarctic Mountains. We find no significant trend in Antarctic SMB over either period. Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is currently equivalent to around 0.5 mm yr−1 of global mean sea level rise (Shepherd et al., 2020), but our results indicate some uncertainty in the SMB contribution based on RCMs. We compare modelled SMB with a large dataset of observations, which, though biased by undersampling, indicates that many of the biases in SMB are common between models. A drifting-snow scheme improves modelled SMB on ice sheet surface slopes with an elevation between 1000 and 2000 m, where strong katabatic winds form. Different ice masks have a substantial impact on the integrated total SMB and along with model resolution are factored into our analysis. Targeting undersampled regions with high precipitation for observational campaigns will be key to improving future estimates of SMB in Antarctica.

Regional mass variations and its sensitivity to climate drivers over glaciers of Karakoram and Himalayas

ABSTRACT The regional scale mass change provides a substantial understanding to the influence of climate change on the glacier surface. However, the scarce ground observations and large spatial extent limit the use of field-based mass balance estimation. In this study, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data were used to estimate the regional glacier mass variation over the Karakoram and Himalayas (KH) region during 2002–2019 hydrological years. Our study showed that the total mass change rate over the KH region was – 55.0 ± 8.7 Gt yr–1 for the study period. We have identified four positive/negative clusters of mass change over the KH region, with the eastern part of the Karakoram (KK) and part of the Central Himalaya (CH) regions have experienced a positive mass change. In contrast, the junction area between the Western Himalaya (WH) and CH region observed an extreme negative mass change. The results demonstrated that the annual mass change for WH become negative or nearly zero from 2007/08 onwards, while for CH and Eastern Himalaya (EH) regions, it became negative since 2005/06. The GRACE-derived mass change was validated with the published in-situ mass balance data, which reveals a high correlation (r = 0.77) over the region. The performance of obtained results were also compared with Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-1 (ICESat-1) data for the period 2003–2009, indicating a correlation of 0.87 and 0.91 for monthly and annual scale, respectively. Moreover, the interannual mass change in the glaciated region was analyzed using hydro-climatic data and energy fluxes, suggesting a higher correlation of mass change with total precipitation and snowfall over the spatiotemporal scale. However, this correlation fails at locations where evaporation, runoff, and radiation have prominently influenced the mass loss. The uncertainty and sensitivity test for mass change demonstrated that snowfall and temperature have a strong influence on the response of mass change. Overall, this study provided regional mass change and their relationship with hydro-climatic variables, which will provide a better understanding related to the water availability in the downstream areas.

Integrated Chemical Biochemical Technology to Reduce Ammonia Emission from Fermented Municipal Biowaste

A new eco-friendly process is reported, the implementation of which at the EU level could reduce ammonia and greenhouse gas emissions from fermented biowaste by over 1 Gt yr–1. The present work reports the case study of municipal biowaste (MBW). The process is based on the use of soluble bio-organic substances (SBOs) as auxiliaries in the anaerobic fermentation of MBW to produce biogas and digestate with reduced ammonia content. The SBO-assisted process enables a virtuous biowaste cycle, where MBW is sequentially fermented under anoxic conditions, the digestate is composted, and the compost generated is hydrolyzed, yielding SBO, which is recycled to the anaerobic fermentation reactor at 0.2% concentration. The results show that depending on the MBW source, fermentation inoculum, and SBO concentration in the fermentation slurry, about 40% reduction of ammonium in the digestate is achieved, whereas the control fermentation without SBO exhibits up to 11% ammonia increase. The microbial community and biogas production are not significantly affected by SBO addition. The data are consistent with biological and chemical processes occurring in SBO-assisted fermentation. These comprise ammonia production by protein hydrolysis catalyzed by proteolytic bacteria and ammonia oxidation to N2 catalyzed by SBOs. The results confirm the benefit provided by the use of SBOs to reduce the environmental impact of biowaste. These encourage the implementation of SBO-assisted fermentation in the real operational environment.

Tradeoff of CO2 and CH4 emissions from global peatlands under water-table drawdown

Water-table drawdown across peatlands increases carbon dioxide (CO2) and reduces methane (CH4) emissions. The net climatic effect remains unclear. Based on global observations from 130 sites, we found a positive (warming) net climate effect of water-table drawdown. Using a machine-learning-based upscaling approach, we predict that peatland water-table drawdown driven by climate drying and human activities will increase CO2 emissions by 1.13 (95% interval: 0.88–1.50) Gt yr−1 and reduce CH4 by 0.26 (0.14–0.52) GtCO2-eq yr−1, resulting in a net increase of greenhouse gas of 0.86 (0.36–1.36) GtCO2-eq yr−1 by the end of the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 climate scenario. This drops to 0.73 (0.2–1.2) GtCO2-eq yr−1 under RCP2.6. Our results point to an urgent need to preserve pristine and rehabilitate drained peatlands to decelerate the positive feedback among water-table drawdown, increased greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming.

Increased Ice Thinning over Svalbard Measured by ICESat/ICESat-2 Laser Altimetry

A decade-long pronounced increase in temperatures in the Arctic, especially in the Barents Sea region, resulted in a global warming hotspot over Svalbard. Associated changes in the cryosphere are the consequence and lead to a demand for monitoring of the glacier changes. This study uses spaceborne laser altimetry data from the ICESat and ICESat-2 missions to obtain ice elevation and mass change rates between 2003–2008 and 2019. Elevation changes are derived at orbit crossover locations throughout the study area, and regional volume and mass changes are estimated using a hypsometric approach. A Svalbard-wide annual elevation change rate of −0.30 ± 0.15 m yr−1 was found, which corresponds to a mass loss rate of −12.40 ± 4.28 Gt yr−1. Compared to the ICESat period (2003–2009), thinning has increased over most regions, including the highest negative rates along the west coast and areas bordering the Barents Sea. The overall negative regime is expected to be linked to Arctic warming in the last decades and associated changes in glacier climatic mass balance. Further, observed increased thinning rates and pronounced changes at the eastern side of Svalbard since the ICESat period are found to correlate with atmospheric and oceanic warming in the respective regions.

Spatially and temporally resolved ice loss in High Mountain Asia and the Gulf of Alaska observed by CryoSat-2 swath altimetry between 2010 and 2019

Abstract. Glaciers are currently the largest contributor to sea level rise after ocean thermal expansion, contributing ∼ 30 % to the sea level budget. Global monitoring of these regions remains a challenging task since global estimates rely on a variety of observations and models to achieve the required spatial and temporal coverage, and significant differences remain between current estimates. Here we report the first application of a novel approach to retrieve spatially resolved elevation and mass change from radar altimetry over entire mountain glaciers areas. We apply interferometric swath altimetry to CryoSat-2 data acquired between 2010 and 2019 over High Mountain Asia (HMA) and in the Gulf of Alaska (GoA). In addition, we exploit CryoSat's monthly temporal repeat to reveal seasonal and multiannual variation in rates of glaciers' thinning at unprecedented spatial detail. We find that during this period, HMA and GoA have lost an average of −28.0 ± 3.0 Gt yr−1 (−0.29 ± 0.03 m w.e. yr−1) and −76.3 ± 5.7 Gt yr−1 (−0.89 ± 0.07 m w.e. yr−1), respectively, corresponding to a contribution to sea level rise of 0.078 ± 0.008 mm yr−1 (0.051 ± 0.006 mm yr−1 from exorheic basins) and 0.211 ± 0.016 mm yr−1. The cumulative loss during the 9-year period is equivalent to 4.2 % and 4.3 % of the ice volume, respectively, for HMA and GoA. Glacier thinning is ubiquitous except for in the Karakoram–Kunlun region, which experiences stable or slightly positive mass balance. In the GoA region, the intensity of thinning varies spatially and temporally, with acceleration of mass loss from −0.06 ± 0.33 to −1.1 ± 0.06 m yr−1 from 2013, which correlates with the strength of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In HMA ice loss is sustained until 2015–2016, with a slight decrease in mass loss from 2016, with some evidence of mass gain locally from 2016–2017 onwards.

Modeled and Observed Bedrock Displacements in North‐East Greenland Using Refined Estimates of Present‐Day Ice‐Mass Changes and Densified GNSS Measurements

AbstractModels of the glacial‐isostatic adjustment (GIA) to past ice‐mass changes exhibit large differences in north‐east Greenland owing to insufficient knowledge about glacial history and Earth rheology. The GIA uncertainties feed back to uncertainties in present‐day mass‐balance estimates from satellite gravimetry. Geodetic Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements allow to directly observe displacement of bedrock. We present results from repeated and continuous GNSS measurements conducted within five measurement campaigns between 2008 and 2017. We used the observed uplift rates to validate different GIA models in conjunction with estimates of the elastic response of the solid Earth to present‐day ice‐mass changes. To determine present‐day ice‐mass changes and the associated elastic deformations, we combined satellite altimetry data from CryoSat‐2 with satellite gravimetry data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment for the entire Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and included peripheral glaciers and ice caps. The different GIA models were consistently used in all processing steps. The GNSS measurements in north‐east Greenland revealed uplift rates in the range of 2.8 to 8.9 mm yr−1. The comparison of the total displacement predicted by GIA and elastic modeling with the GNSS‐based displacement clearly favors GIA models that show low rates (0.7–4.4 mm yr−1 at the GNSS sites) against GIA models with higher rates of up to 8.3 mm yr−1. The correction due to the favored GIA model in north‐east Greenland results in an ice‐mass loss of 233 ± 43 Gt yr−1 for the GrIS including peripheral glaciers over the period July 2010 to June 2017.

The regional-scale surface mass balance of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, over the period 2005–2014, derived from airborne radar soundings and neutron probe measurements

Abstract. We derive recent surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from airborne radar observations along the iSTAR traverse (2013, 2014) at Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica. Ground-based neutron probe measurements provide information of snow and firn density with depth at 22 locations and were used to date internal annual reflection layers. The 2005 layer was traced for a total distance of 2367 km to determine annual mean SMB for the period 2005–2014. Using complementary SMB estimates from two regional climate models, RACMO2.3p2 and MAR, and a geostatistical kriging scheme, we determine a regional-scale SMB distribution with similar main characteristics to that determined for the period 1985–2009 in previous studies. Local departures exist for the northern PIG slopes, where the orographic precipitation shadow effect appears to be more pronounced in our observations, and the southward interior, where the SMB gradient is more pronounced in previous studies. We derive total mass inputs of 79.9±19.2 and 82.1±19.2 Gt yr−1 to the PIG basin based on complementary ASIRAS–RACMO and ASIRAS–MAR SMB estimates, respectively. These are not significantly different to the value of 78.3±6.8 Gt yr−1 for the period 1985–2009. Thus, there is no evidence of a secular trend at decadal scales in total mass input to the PIG basin. We note, however, that our estimated uncertainty is more than twice the uncertainty for the 1985–2009 estimate on total mass input. Our error analysis indicates that uncertainty estimates on total mass input are highly sensitive to the selected krige methodology and assumptions made on the interpolation error, which we identify as the main cause for the increased uncertainty range compared to the 1985–2009 estimates.

Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract. We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century.

Comprehensive estimation of lake volume changes on the Tibetan Plateau during 1976–2019 and basin-wide glacier contribution

Volume changes and water balances of the lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are spatially heterogeneous and the lake-basin scale drivers remain unclear. In this study, we comprehensively estimated water volume changes for 1132 lakes larger than 1 km2 and determined the glacier contribution to lake volume change at basin-wide scale using satellite stereo and multispectral images. Overall, the water mass stored in the lakes increased by 169.7 ± 15.1 Gt (3.9 ± 0.4 Gt yr−1) between 1976 and 2019, mainly in the Inner-TP (157.6 ± 11.6 or 3.7 ± 0.3 Gt yr−1). A substantial increase in mass occurred between 1995 and 2019 (214.9 ± 12.7 Gt or 9.0 ± 0.5 Gt yr−1), following a period of decrease (−45.2 ± 8.2 Gt or −2.4 ± 0.4 Gt yr−1) prior to 1995. A slowdown in the rate of water mass increase occurred between 2010 and 2015 (23.1 ± 6.5 Gt or 4.6 ± 1.3 Gt yr−1), followed again by a high value between 2015 and 2019 (65.7 ± 6.7 Gt or 16.4 ± 1.7 Gt yr−1). The increased lake-water mass occurred predominately in glacier-fed lakes (127.1 ± 14.3 Gt) in contrast to non-glacier-fed lakes (42.6 ± 4.9 Gt), and in endorheic lakes (161.9 ± 14.0 Gt) against exorheic lakes (7.8 ± 5.8 Gt) over 1976–2019. Endorheic and glacier-fed lakes showed strongly contrasting patterns with a remarkable storage increase in the northern TP and slight decrease in the southern TP. The ratio of excess glacier meltwater runoff to lake volume increase between 2000 and ~2019 was less than 30% for the entire Inner-TP based on several independent data sets. Among individual lake-basins, 14 showed a glacier contribution to lake volume increase of 0.3% to 29.1%. The other eight basins exhibited a greater glacier contribution of 116% to 436%, which could be explained by decreased net precipitation. The lake volume change and basin scale glacier contribution reveal that the enhanced precipitation predominantly drives lake volume increase but it is spatially heterogeneous.

Continuous Estimates of Glacier Mass Balance in High Mountain Asia Based on ICESat‐1,2 and GRACE/GRACE Follow‐On Data

AbstractGlacier melt in High Mountain Asia (HMA) is an indicator of climate change and has a major impact on the regional hydrology and freshwater supply. We determined the recent status of HMA glaciers based on the first analysis of Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite‐2 (ICESat‐2) data. We used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow‐On (FO) data to complement ICESat‐1,2 data and validate them independently. We find a good agreement between ICESat‐1,2 and GRACE/GRACE‐FO data, which demonstrates the high reliability of results. Based on our results, the continuous glacier mass change from 2003 to 2019 is −28 ± 6 Gt yr−1, which is more negative than stereo imagery‐based studies. The regional variability of the glaciers ranges from −1.07 ± 0.10 m yr−1 in southeastern Nyaingentanglha to +0.16 ± 0.10 m yr−1 in West Kunlun. ICESat‐2 data enable new insight into the continuous measurement of HMA glacier elevation change.

Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections

Abstract. An increase in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) surface mass balance (SMB) has the potential to mitigate future sea level rise that is driven by enhanced solid ice discharge from the ice sheet. For climate models, AIS SMB provides a difficult challenge, as it is highly susceptible to spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability. Here we use a reconstructed data set of AIS snow accumulation as “true” observational data, to evaluate the ability of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 suites of models in capturing the mean, trends, temporal variability, and spatial variability in SMB over the historical period (1850–2000). This gives insight into which models are most reliable for predicting SMB into the future. We found that the best scoring models included the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) GISS model and the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology's model for CMIP5, as well as one of the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) models and one MPI model for CMIP6. Using a scoring system based on SMB mean value, trend, and temporal variability across the AIS, as well as spatial SMB variability, we selected a subset of the top 10th percentile of models to refine 21st century (2000–2100) AIS-integrated SMB projections to 2274 ± 282 Gt yr−1, 2358 ± 286 Gt yr−1, and 2495 ± 291 Gt yr−1 for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. We also reduced the spread in AIS-integrated mean SMB by 79 %, 79 %, and 74 % in RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. Notably, we find that there is no improvement from CMIP5 to CMIP6 in overall score. In fact, CMIP6 performed slightly worse on average compared to CMIP5 at capturing the aforementioned SMB criteria. Our results also indicate that model performance scoring is affected by internal climate variability (particularly the spatial variability), which is illustrated by the fact that the range in overall score between ensemble members within the CESM1 Large Ensemble is comparable to the range in overall score between CESM1 model simulations within the CMIP5 model suite. We also find that a higher horizontal resolution does not yield to a conclusive improvement in score.

Satellite observations of snowfall regimes over the Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is decreasing due to increasing surface melt and ice dynamics. Snowfall both adds mass to the GrIS and has the capacity to reduce surface melt by increasing surface brightness, reflecting additional solar radiation back to space. Modeling the GrIS’s current and future mass balance and potential contribution to future sea level rise requires reliable observational benchmarks for current snowfall accumulation as well as robust connections between individual snowfall events and the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that produce them. Previous work using ground-based observations showed that, for one research station on the GrIS, two distinct snowfall regimes exist: those associated with exclusively ice-phase cloud processes (IC) and those involving mixed-phase processes indicated by the presence of supercooled liquid water (CLW). The two regimes have markedly different accumulation characteristics and dynamical drivers. This study leverages the synergy between two satellite instruments, CloudSat's Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and CALIPSO's Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), to identify snowfall cases over the full GrIS and partition them into the IC and CLW regimes. We find that, overall, most CPR observations of snowfall over the GrIS come from IC events (70 %); however, during the summer months, close to half of the snow observed is produced in CLW events (45 %). IC snowfall plays a dominant role in adding mass to the GrIS, producing ∼ 80 % of the total estimated 399 Gt yr−1 accumulation. Beyond the cloud phase that defines the snowfall regimes, the macrophysical cloud characteristics are distinct as well; the mean IC geometric cloud depth (∼ 4 km) is deeper than the CLW geometric cloud depth (∼ 2 km), consistent with previous studies based on surface observations. Two-dimensional histograms of the vertical distribution of CPR reflectivities show that IC events demonstrate consistently increasing reflectivity toward the surface while CLW events do not. Analysis of ERA5 reanalyses shows that IC events are associated with cyclone activity and CLW events generally occur under large-scale anomalously high geopotential heights over the GrIS. When combined with future climate predictions, this snapshot of GrIS snowfall characteristics may shed light on how this source of ice sheet mass might respond to changing synoptic patterns in a warming climate.

Estimation of component contributions to total terrestrial water storage change in the Yangtze river basin

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is a key variable in global and regional hydrological cycles. In this study, the TWS changes in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) were derived using the Lagrange multiplier method (LMM) from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. To assess TWS changes from LMM, different GRACE solutions, different hydrological models, and in situ data were used for validation. Results show that TWS changes from LMM in YRB has the best performance with the correlation coefficients of 0.80 and root mean square error of 1.48 cm in comparison with in situ data. The trend of TWS changes over the YRB increased by 10.39 ± 1.27 Gt yr−1 during the 2003–2015 period. Moreover, TWS change is disintegrated into the individual contributions of hydrological components (i.e., glaciers, surface water, soil moisture, and groundwater) from satellite data, hydrologic models, and in situ data. The estimated changes in individual TWS components in the YRB show that (1) the contribution of glaciers, surface water, soil moisture, and groundwater to total TWS changes is 15%, 12%, 25% and 48%, respectively; (2) Geladandong glacier melt from CryoSat-2/ICESat data has a critical effect on TWS changes with a correlation coefficients of −0.51; (3) the Three Gorges Reservoir Impoundment has a minimal effect on surface water changes (mainly lake water storage), but it has a substantial effect on groundwater storage (GWS), (4) the Poyang and Doting Lake water storage changes are mainly caused by climate change, (5) soil moisture storage change is mainly influenced by surface water, (6) human-induced GWS changes accounted for approximately half of the total GWS. The results of this study can provide valuable information for decision-making in water resources management.

Global Warming Threshold and Mechanisms for Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss.

The Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1) is used to investigate the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) under an idealized CO forcing scenario of 1% increase until stabilization at 4 pre‐industrial at model year 140. In this simulation, the SMB calculation is coupled with the atmospheric model, using a physically based surface energy balance scheme for melt, explicit calculation of snow albedo, and a realistic treatment of polar snow and firn compaction. By the end of the simulation (years 131–150), the SMB decreases with 994 Gt yr with respect to the pre‐industrial SMB, which represents a sea‐level rise contribution of 2.8 mm yr. For a threshold of 2.7‐K global temperature increase with respect to pre‐industrial, the rate of expansion of the ablation area increases, the mass loss accelerates due to loss of refreezing capacity and accelerated melt, and the SMB becomes negative 6 years later. Before acceleration, longwave radiation is the most important contributor to increasing energy for melt. After acceleration, the large expansion of the ablation area strongly reduces surface albedo. This and much increased turbulent heat fluxes as the GrIS‐integrated summer surface temperature approaches melt point become the major sources of energy for melt.