Growth Rate Of Trade Research Articles

Tendencje na rynku mięsa wołowego na świecie i w Polsce w latach 2000-2016

Opracowanie przedstawia zmiany w produkcji wołowiny na świecie w latach 2000-2016. Przedstawiono zmiany u największych jej producentów i konsumentów, a także eksporterów i importerów. U głównych światowych producentów wołowiny wzrost konsumpcji był wolniejszy niż produkcji, co spowodowało zwiększenie ich możliwości eksportowych. W latach 2000-2016 tempo wzrostu handlu międzynarodowego było szybsze niż produkcji, co powodowało wzrost udziału eksportu w zagospodarowaniu produkcji. Szczególnie szybko rozwijała się produkcja oraz eksport w Brazylii i Indiach. Ceny wołowiny charakteryzowały się tendencją wzrostową. W Polsce występowała tendencja wzrostowa w produkcji wołowiny i spadkowa w konsumpcji. Rynki zagraniczne są głównym kierunkiem zagospodarowania rosnącej produkcji i powstających nadwyżek. Takim kierunkom zmian sprzyja konkurencyjność cenowa polskiej wołowiny. Do 2025 r. możliwy jest dalszy wzrost produkcji wołowiny w Polsce wynikający głównie z popytu zagranicznego.

The Economic Dimensions of Chinese Investments in Africa (2000-2015)

This study has been performed on the reality of the economic dimensions of China Investments in Africa during the period between (2000-2015). The Study adopted the descriptive analytical method by standing on the volume and the type of Chinese investments in the African continent. The study focused on the returns of these investment and the related exchange relations, on the economies of the African countries. The study found that the Chinese investments in Africa are direct investments that influenced the size and nature of the exchange between the two parties, which has been in favor of China's balance of trade. The study confirmed the increase of Chinese investments in the continent during the period (2000 -2013) but these investments began to decline thereafter. The study attributed this decline to the slowdown of China economy, instability in different African countries, in addition to the economic pressures exerted by western countries. All this has led to the decline in investments & exchange with the countries of the continent in general. In addition the study has reported that Chinese investments were concentrated on the field of natural resources and energy, which led to uneven impact on the economic indicators of the continent countries (poverty rates, GDP, growth rate & balance of trade. est.). In conclusion the study recommended that Chinese investments in Africa should be taken with more studies and analysis & with some additional control, monitoring and evaluation. Also African countries should re-evaluate their regional economic alliances and entities to avoid contradiction & lack of coordination in their investments policies, especially when dealing with foreign investments.

Port governance in Turkey: The age of the global terminal operators

This paper investigates port governance in Turkey from the point of institutional economics and industrial organization. As a newly industrialized country, Turkey still achieves high growth rate and continuous development of global trade. As a result of high volume of trade, the role of ports raises its importance, and it attracts global investors in the port business. Turkey has focused on port devolution in the last two decades, and both domestic and global investors have been authorized to establish new port facilities as well as operating existing ports. Meanwhile, the national logistics industry has achieved a great leap which is also improved by the development of port business. Under various national and global circumstances, a synopsis of port governance in Turkey will be discussed from different perspectives including institutional changes and transport policy. This comparative case study particularly focusses on the last two decades in transition of public ports to various forms of private entities. The change of governance scheme is investigated through its impact on cargo traffic (especially containerized cargo) as well as logistics infrastructure in brief.

Revitalizing the Global Trading System: What Could the G20 Do?

Since 2008, G20 leaders have repeatedly committed themselves not to resort to protectionism and to conclude WTO negotiations expeditiously. The jury is out on the extent to which they lived up to the first promise; they failed to deliver the second. Anemic global trade growth rates since 2010 implies that trade has not been a driver of much needed economic dynamism. This paper argues that the G20 should pursue a more ambitious trade agenda and that there is much that greater leadership by the G20 could do to reinvigorate the trading system. A first step would be to commit to concrete actions that can be implemented by individual governments on a concerted basis and that center on reducing trade costs and improving access to services for firms. The Chinese presidency should also seek to have the G20 commit to more effective monitoring and analysis of trade policy broadly defined (including subsidies and investment incentives) and the impact of the many preferential trade agreements involving China, the EU and the US, the world’s largest trading powers.

Trade Restrictions Hamper World Trade Growth

World trade growth rates have significantly slowed: in 2015, the volume of world trade went up by 2.8% and according to the WTO forecast will remain at the same level throughout 2016. As a result, the current year will be the fifth year in a row when the trade turnover will increase by less than 3%. Furthermore, during the period from 1990 through 2008 the average indicator remained at the level of 5%.

Economic evaluation of the environmental impact of shipping from the perspective of CO2 emissions

In this research we evaluate the environmental economic impact of shipping from the perspective of CO2 emissions by implementing Marine Emission Trading Scheme (METS), as defined. This trading scheme is based on the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) program with adjustments for the shipping industry’s needs. First, we evaluate the socio-economic cost of carbon emissions from seaborne trade activity per borne ton and per consumed ton fuel in both Business as Usual (BAU) and METS state. Then we continue to evaluate the relative socio-economic effect with regional segmentation, transportation mode, and the expected effect on the shipping industry from both the economic and environmental perspective. The METS economic model is calibrated with the Fuel Consumption data (FC), forecasted FC growth rate (based on the proportion between FC growth rate and global trade growth rate), forecasted emission abatement rate (based on EU-ETS actual performance) and Emission Unit Allowance (EUA) prices. This generates an economic evaluation based on multiple CO2 emission scenarios, allowing us to estimate the socio-economic impact on the environment from seaborne trade activity per borne ton criteria and per consumed ton fuel criteria in BAU State and METS State. The research shows that METS is effective, for an annual reduction rate of 7 % or more, but its efficiency is dependent upon the low growth rate of fuel demand. International shipping, in a state of BAU, is expected to increase its economic environmental influence by 356 % from 2007 to 2030, with the maximum increase of CO2 emissions estimated at 324 %. In contrast, implementation of METS is expected to decrease CO2 emissions between 54 and 93 % with the maximum emission growth rate at 207 %, and the minimum emission growth rate at 110 %. In relation to the BAU state and the external costs per ton of fuel consumed under BAU is expected to grow by 16 %, although with the expected rise in fuel prices this rate could decrease to 5 %. We found that under METS regulation this rate would grow only by up to 10 % and decrease up to 4 %. In addition, we found that calculations of external cost per transported ton are likely to create an imbalance between payments and actual contribution to the pollution problem. To conclude, the current sea freight tariff system does not account for the external costs of CO2 emissions, and therefore we suggest that International Maritime Organization (IMO), must take charge, lead and coordinate an international program of emission trade, that could achieve effective reductions with minimum impact on business activity.

Revitalizing the Global Trading System: What Could the G20 Do?

AbstractSince 2008, G20 leaders have repeatedly committed themselves not to resort to protectionism and to conclude WTO negotiations expeditiously. The jury is out on the extent to which they have lived up to the first promise; they have failed to deliver the second. Anemic global trade growth rates since 2010 imply that trade has not been a driver of much‐needed economic dynamism. This paper argues that the G20 should pursue a more ambitious trade agenda and that there is much that greater leadership by the G20 could do to reinvigorate the trading system. A first step would be to commit to concrete actions that can be implemented by individual governments on a concerted basis and that center on reducing trade costs and improving access to services for firms. The Chinese presidency should also seek to have the G20 commit to more effective monitoring and analysis of trade policy broadly defined (including subsidies and investment incentives) and the impact of the many preferential trade agreements involving China, the EU and the USA, the world's largest trading powers.

Trade–Terrorist Evaluation Index (TTEi)

This paper introduces a new index which measures the responsiveness of terrorist attacks to the international trade. The main idea of this study is to analyse the international trade performance from terrorist attacks point of view. There are two main parts of this research paper, first part relates to theoretical and conceptual framework of trade–terrorist evaluation index (TTEi). This TTEi has four stages (i) total trade volume, (ii) trade growth rate, (iii) terrorism (TR) vulnerability growth rate and (iv) TTEi. The second part is associated with the application of TTEi to the economies of Iraq and Afghanistan. This study provides a new approach to analyze the international trade and TR from a novel perspective.

Trends in India's Agricultural Commodity Trade with China

In this study, we attempt to analyse the trends in trade relations between India and China, especially in agricultural commodity since 2004. In this analysis, we use the concept of trade intensity, long-term trend analysis and statistical than test that is time horizon during 2004 to 2011. Overall results show that the liberalisation process has led significant changes, and growth rate of India and China's trade has been higher the world trade growth. Second, India's trade growth rate with China during later period (2009–2013) substantially has been felt declined.

Новые тенденции мирохозяйственного развития и Латинская Америка

There are substantial changes in the evolution of world economy and world economic relations. The growth rates of international trade have diminished two-fold, the prices for oil and other commodities have fallen, and the competition on world markets has sharpened greatly. These new trends complicate fundamentally external conditions for the economic development of peripheral regions, especially Latin America. Latin American countries have reached a phase of considerable economic deceleration. Under these circumstances, there is an urgent need for reconsideration of key conclusions made by some Russian experts on the possibilities of the future economic and social growth of Latin America. The author examines the most discussed aspects of the Latin American modern economic situation – the deepening technological gap and slow rates of technological progress, the limited role of internal economic motive forces, the conservation of foreign economic dependence. The future of Latin America’s economic development is uncertain in many respects and will depend greatly on foreign economic conditions. The new world balance opened important additional possibilities for Latin America on world markets. China has converted into the second largest economic partner of the region. But there is a number of complicated problems in their relations that need an urgent regulation. At the same time, the strategic task for Latin America consists in finding of effective ways for further broadening of economic relations with the United States in terms of equality and mutual benefit.

Examining the Korean Inbound Tourism Market Cycle: A Markov Regime-Switching Model

This study analyzes the Korean inbound tourism market (KITM) cycle and the driving forces of the KITM cycle. Based on data of tourism receipts from 1976 Q1 to 2012 Q2, the Markov regime-switching model identifies two distinct regimes of the KITM cycle: a high-growth regime and a low-growth regime, each with its own mean, variance, and duration. Moreover, in addition to the growth rate of tourist arrivals, the growth rate of international trade is found to be significant in keeping the KITM cycle in the high-growth regime. Empirical findings can offer essential information and policy implications for Korean government tourism policymakers and business managers.

Value, Structure and Spatial Distribution of Interprovincial Trade in China

AbstractThis study uses two different datasets to explore the stylized facts of interprovincial trade in China during the recent two decades. One dataset provides the magnitude of bilateral interprovincial goods trade calculated using firms' value‐added tax invoices. The other supplies estimates of interprovincial trade using provincial input–output tables. We find that China has both a large value and a high growth rate of interprovincial trade, but there still exists a home bias in internal trade for most provinces. In addition, disaggregation by product shows that the manufacturing sector has the largest share of interprovincial trade and this share continues to grow. Finally, the spatial distribution of trade suggests that all provinces can be clustered into a smaller number of trade areas with large intra‐cluster trade. Therefore, China's central government should make more effort to reduce local protection, stimulate domestic demand and coordinate interregional trade among local jurisdictions.

Strategic Partnership for Economic Development: India's New ‘Inclusive Trade Diplomacy’

Development being critically dependent upon the import of crude oil, India entered into regional trade agreements with West Asian states, particularly Iran. India signed RTA with Iran because its terms of trade seemed advantageous to others. Besides, a curious trend was observed that a rising GDP was related to a growing total trade growth rate between India- Iran. At present, India's fallen GDP coincides with India's reduced oil import from Iran. Due to the Iranian nuclear crisis, India has been under immense external pressure to halt oil trade Iran which can, consequently, stifle development. India's response has revealed its unique trade diplomacy-‘inclusive alignment’, especially useful in troubled political climes. Inclusive alignment refers to alignment to both powers. Thereby, it does not commit oneself to a singular bloc. Thereby, one could maintain one's neutrality and balance against the US-led sanctions against Iran, and continue Iranian oil imports.

Patterns of Export Diversification: Evidence from Pakistan

This paper examines historical trends in the diversification of exports in Pakistan, using the Hirschman index to quantify the degree of export diversification. We analyze the structure of exports through the lens of ‘traditionality,’ for which we construct industry-specific, average cumulative export experience functions, i.e., a traditionality index of all 2-digit export industries in Pakistan from 1972 to 2012. This is useful in distinguishing between traditional and nontraditional export industries. We also study the degree of structural change in the export sector since 1972 by recalculating the traditionality index based on five-year interval periods. The cross-industry variance of this index is then used to calculate the structural change index. Periods for which the index values are low are interpreted as periods during which the export industries experienced uniform patterns of export growth (and thereby no structural change). Periods for which the index values are high are interpreted as periods during which the export industries experienced varied patterns of growth, thus undergoing structural change. Finally, we explore the determinants of structural change in exports by looking at variables such as GDP growth, export growth, the real exchange rate, the growth rate of world trade, trade liberalization, and the degree of product concentration in the country’s export base.

국내 희유금속 수급구조 분석 연구

본 연구는 35여종의 희유금속을 대상으로 광석(정광), 금속, 화합물, 스크랩 등 4개 유형으로 광종별 원재료를 범주화하고 교역 구조를 분석하였다. 우리나라 희유금속원재료 교역 규모는 점차 확대되어 교역 증가폭이 GDP 증가폭을 큰 폭으로 상회하고 있다. 희유금속 원재료는 실리콘, 니켈, 크롬, 몰리브덴, 망간 등 철강원료자원 위주로 수입이 주로 이루어지고 있으며 전자공업원료자원 중 인듐, 게르마늄 등은 총교역규모 1억불 이하의 작은 규모로 수입추이변화에 미치는 영향은 제한적이나 연간증가율이 20%를 상회하여 지속적인 수급관리가 필요하다. 수입규모는 수출규모의 약 3배이며 희유금속 원재료 수출입 유형은 국내산업구조 및 수요의 특성에 따라 광종별로 다양한 양상을 보이고 있으나 수입, 수출 모두 상당수가 금속형태로 교역이 이루어지고 있다. In this study, the domestic supply & demand of the raw materials of 35 rare metals was analyzed categorized as four types - ores, metals, compounds and scraps. Foreign trade volumes of the raw materials of rare metals have been steadily increased, furthermore, recently trade growth rate highly exceeds GDP. The raw materials of rare metals - silicon, nickel, molybdenum, manganese, etc. - for steel industry were the most big part of the raw materials of rare metals trade, while the raw materials of rare metals for electronics industry were imported relatively small volumes less than $100 million. However systematic supply & demand management on the raw materials of rare metals for electronics industry is needed since recently growth rate per year has been remarkably high over 20%. Import volumes were about three times bigger than export scale, and most of the raw materials of rare metals were traded as a metal form.

The Real Sector of the Economy in April 2014: Factors & Trends

In April 2014, the economic situation was determined both by slowdown of growth rates of consumer demand and a drop in investment demand. Investments in capital assets in April 2014 and January-April amounted to 97.3% and 95.7%, respectively, against the respective indices of the previous year. A decrease in growth rates of retail trade sales volumes year on year to 2.6% was determined by dramatic slowdown of households’ real income and real wages and salaries. After a drop in January, year on year indices of industry demonstrated growth in February-April 2014. In April 2014, year on year growth rates of industrial production amounted to 2.4%, while in manufacturing and production of primary products, to 3.9% and 1.7%, respectively. However, despite the fact that the situation has improved to some extent the expected growth in industry in 2014 will amount by the estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation to 1.0%, which is justified by the expected 2.4% drop in investment activities in 2014.

Current Economic and Financial Crisis on World Trade Business in Developed and Developing Countries

This paper aims to highlight the impact of the current economic and financial crisis on world trade business in developed and developing countries, specifically for the global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows; growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP), trade and employment growth; and FDI prospects in 2014. This academic research would be beneficial not only to the researchers but also to the Academe-industry consultants, economists, businessmen, investors, entrepreneurs, bankers, financial analysts, accountants as well as business professors respectively. Hence, this article was based on published research papers but does not include empirical investigation.

Insights on Oil Palm Production Variation and Trade Growths Rates in Nigeria

This research was conducted to study various policy regimes in Nigeria with a focus on Oil palm production variations and trade growth rates from 1961-2007. Objectives of the study were; To determine the variations in oil palm production (yield, output and harvested area) overtime.; to test for differences in the variation of oil palm output and to estimate growth rates of palm oil trade (import/export) quantities. Data used for the study was obtained from FAOSTAT and covered area (hectare), yield (hg/ha), output (tonnes), import and export quantities (tonnes). The Coefficient of Variation (CV) was used to estimate the variations for each period. The Kruskal- Wallis test was employed to test for differences in the variation of oil palm output. While the Log-Linear regression model was used to estimate the growth rates. Findings show periods of general instability in oil palm output which accompanied decreasing export and increasing imports growth rates. The study recommends a sustained medium to long term agrifood policy that emphasizes productivity of all factors of production while also encouraging the industrial utilization of oil palm products to ensure rapid and sustained production.

Конкурентные эффекты низких торговых барьеров: некоторые оценки для Калининградской области

International trade is an important factor affecting competition in domestic markets. Considering the vastness of Russian territory, one can expect the pro-competitive effect to vary from region to region. This analysis tests the hypothesis that the unique geographical position and economic status of the Kaliningrad region contribute to the rapid development of international trade, which, in turn, exerts competitive pressure on regional prices. The study incorporates two major lines of analysis: a) a comparison of the international trade growth rates of different Russian regions; b) an assessment of the influence of Russian and European prices on the consumer price index as well as prices for particular tradable goods in the Kaliningrad region. Rosstat and Eurostat serve as the main data sources. To test their hypothesis, the authors use the methods of statistical and econometric analysis. The status of the free economic zone and unique geographic position of the Kaliningrad region do not result in high growth rates of international trade in the region, but rather lead to a structural shift towards import thus exerting additional competitive pressure on domestic prices. The analysis did not confirm the hypothesis about the considerable influence of European prices on the short run dynamics of the regional consumer prices index or prices for certain imported goods. Nevertheless, indirect evidence of competitive effects of foreign trade was found in the course of a comparative analysis of price levels in the regions of the Northwest Federal district: the cost of the standard set of consumer goods and services in the Kaliningrad region is lower than the level defined by the regional per capita income.

Competitive effects of low trade barriers: evaluations for the Kaliningrad region

International trade is an important factor affecting competition in domestic markets. Considering the vastness of Russian territory, one can expect the pro-competitive effect to vary from region to region. This analysis tests the hypothesis that the unique geographical position and economic status of the Kaliningrad region contribute to the rapid development of international trade, which, in turn, exerts competitive pressure on regional prices. The study incorporates two major lines of analysis: a) a comparison of the international trade growth rates of different Russian regions; b) an assessment of the influence of Russian and European prices on the consumer price index as well as prices for particular tradable goods in the Kaliningrad region. Rosstat and Eurostat serve as the main data sources. To test their hypothesis, the authors use the methods of statistical and econometric analysis. The status of the free economic zone and unique geographic position of the Kaliningrad region do not result in high growth rates of international trade in the region, but rather lead to a structural shift towards import thus exerting additional competitive pressure on domestic prices. The analysis did not confirm the hypothesis about the considerable influence of European prices on the short run dynamics of the regional consumer prices index or prices for certain imported goods. Nevertheless, indirect evidence of competitive effects of foreign trade was found in the course of a comparative analysis of price levels in the regions of the North-West Federal district: the cost of the standard set of consumer goods and services in the Kaliningrad region is lower than the level defined by the regional per capita income.