Growth Rate Of Industrial Production Research Articles

On the Establishment of a Comprehensive Financial System of Macroeconomic Coordination and Balance

Since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the central authorities have adopted a series of measures to effect a comprehensive readjustment of the national economy, carried out the economic structural reform step by step and in a planned way, and implemented the policy of invigorating domestic economy and opening to the outside world, thereby bringing about an excellent situation of sustained development of the national economy. The growth rate of industrial and agricultural production and that of the national income have gone up from year to year and the living standards of the people have improved steadily. Under this impetus, the financial situation has improved from year to year since 1982, and the proportional relationships between agriculture and industry and between heavy and light industries have gradually become better coordinated. Practice shows that our policies for economic readjustment and economic structural reform are correct and const...

The Process of Normalization

The results from the performance of the national economy last year will soon be released. Many indicators that are important for analysis will become known later. But even on the basis of the information that the USSR State Committee for Statistics has at its disposal, it can be concluded that in a number of the most important areas of increasing effectiveness, the positive trends that were observed in 1986 continued. The intensive target for conserving energy resources was met. Production costs dropped sharply in industry (0.7 percent in 1987 compared with the annual average of 0.3 percent during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan) and in construction (0.8 percent in 1987; 0.25 percent in 1981-85). An absolute release of manpower was registered for the first time in the productive branches. Industry alone released 140,000 persons. Labor productivity rose at a rapid rate in this branch. Product modernization accelerated sharply in machine building. But it was not possible to maintain the high growth rates of national income, industrial production, and agricultural production attained in 1986 (see table).

The Process of Normalization

The results from the performance of the national economy last year will soon be released. Many indicators that are important for analysis will become known later. But even on the basis of the information that the USSR State Committee for Statistics has at its disposal, it can be concluded that in a number of the most important areas of increasing effectiveness, the positive trends that were observed in 1986 continued. The intensive target for conserving energy resources was met. Production costs dropped sharply in industry (0.7 percent in 1987 compared with the annual average of 0.3 percent during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan) and in construction (0.8 percent in 1987; 0.25 percent in 1981-85). An absolute release of manpower was registered for the first time in the productive branches. Industry alone released 140,000 persons. Labor productivity rose at a rapid rate in this branch. Product modernization accelerated sharply in machine building. But it was not possible to maintain the high growth rates of national income, industrial production, and agricultural production attained in 1986 (see table).

The convergence of multivariate ‘unit root’ distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality

We examine the quality of recently developed asymptotic approximations to the sampling distributions of various statistics in levels regressions when the regressors have unit roots. The calculations were performed using a bivariate probability model typical of some considered in applied macroeconomic research: the parameters of the model were obtained by estimating a VAR using postwar U.S. money and industrial production growth rates, resulting in pseudo-data that are I(1) with drifts. With 100 observations the asymptotic approximations are often found to be adequate; with 400 observations they are generally good. In addition, when the statistics have nonstandard distributions, both the asymptotic and exact distributions differ substantially from the usual normal or χ 2 distributions that would apply were the regressors stationary.

Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries

This paper decomposes the quarterly and annual growth rate of industrial production in two-digit manufacturing industries in seven European countries and the United States into components that are specific to industries but common to nations, components that are specific to nations but common to industries, and idiosyncratic componets. The paper shows that both industry-specific and nation-specific shocks are empirically important. Assuming that shocks to productivity vary across industries but not systematically across national boundaries for the sample countries, this result casts doubt on the hypothesis that most macroeconomic fluctuations can be ascribed to technology shocks alone.

On Estimation of Cobb-Douglas Production Function in Selected Indian Industries

The Indian industries suffered a major setback in industrial production after the mid-sixties. Its annual growth rate declined to 3.9 per cent in 1966-84 from 7.6 per cent in 1951-66. The two periods, namely, 1967-71 and 1975-80, that have been included in this paper, are from the later phase, namely from 1965-66 to 1983-84, which recorded decline in growth rate of industrial production. It is therefore imperative to further study this period. The industries, selected in this paper during the two periods studied are at 2-digit and 3-digit levels of industrial classification. These are major industry groups.Obviously that the period and the industries that form the scope of this paper are very important.

The Slowdown in Soviet Industry, 1976–1982

Growth rates of industrial production in the USSR have been falling since 1950, and the drop was especially large in 1976–1982. The falloff was associated with a pronounced deterioration in factor productivity. The most important explanatory factors seem to have been the economy's unfavorable response to a major cutback in the growth ot investment, unexpected shortages ot key raw materials and energy, and transportation bottlenecks. Mistakes in investment policy seem to have been responsible for many of these difficulties. The secular decline in industrial growth probably will continue since the causes of the slowdown are imbedded in the system of socialist central planning and systemic reform is not likely. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 052, 113, 124.

The German Democratic Republic

Since the middle of the '70s the overall economic growth of the GDR has slowed somewhat. This decline is attributable first and foremost to the decrease in the growth rates of industrial production. However, the discrepancy from the original rather modest five-year plan target (a 5.0% yearly average) will not be as dramatic as in some CMEA countries. Even so, the goals of the five-year plan will definitely not be achieved. In 1979 the growth of national income in the GDR was about 4%, which was more than was expected. A lower economic growth was anticipated because of tense supply conditions. Both the import restrictions in 1977 and 1978 and in particular the extreme winter weather at the beginning of 1979 contributed to the problem. In fact, the yearly economic plan was revised downward at the beginning of 1979. In the first half-year less than half of the planned economic growth was achieved. In the second half-year it was evidently possible to make up most of the shortfall. The growth in industrial production (1979: 4.8%) was entirely due to increases in labor productivity. While the number of employed increased by 0.7%, this was offset by a reduction in the volume of labor as a result of expanded vacation terms and a reduction in weekly work time. However, the number of overtime hours that had to be worked to make up for discrepancies from the plan as a result of shortages in supplies is not known. The hard winter weather brought setbacks in the mining of

Purges and Production: Soviet Economic Growth, 1928–1940

Did preparations for the Second World War account for the precipitous drop in the growth rate of Soviet industrial production from 10–12 percent per annum in the period 1928–1937 to only 2–3 percent per annum in the period 1937–1940? According to some who study the Soviet economy the answer is “yes.” This view has been succinctly expressed by Stanley Cohn: “After 1937, the rising spectre of Hitler forced the Soviet leadership to shift resources into armaments on a massive scale. As a result, the growth rate fell drastically to 3.6 percent per year between 1937 and 1940.” Such a sequence of events, however, has never been empirically demonstrated. The purpose of this paper is to investigate formally the validity of this explanation, via aggregate production functions, particularly of the CES (constant elasticity of substitution) variety, as well as to explore an alternative hypothesis, espoused, among others, by Naum Jasny, Alec Nove and Warren Nutter. This hypothesis stresses a domestic factor as the major contributor to the disruption in industrial production: namely, the impact of Stalin's terror in the form of chaos-producing political purges.