Growth Rate Of GNP Research Articles

Swings in Fertility Limitation in Iran

The issue of demographic transition has become a principle preoccupation of demographers during the last few decades. As explained by some scholars,1 the omnipresent differentials in the trends and...

Does Economic Development Cause Intra-Industry Trade? The Case of India: 1971 to 2000

India’s intra-industry trade (IIT) is evaluated and analyzed from 1971 to 2000. IIT is found to have an upward trend with a growth rate that is close to the growth rate of GNP. A host of macro economic indicators are cointegrated with IIT suggesting that there is a stable relationship between IIT and the level of economic development of India. The causation of this relationship is not however unidirectional as the existing theoretical literature on IIT suggests. There is bi-directional causality for these variables. This implies that though economic development boosts IIT, it can equally be interpreted as a proxy for economic development and a predictor of future industrial progress rather than one that strictly follows it.

Türkiye Ekonomisi ve Büyüme Oranının Sürdürülebilirliği

1950-2001 period's GNP growth rate of Turkey is explained in a time series framework. It is also explained that the GNP series shows a sort of random behaviour complying with a random walk model ; and the connection with a potential long-term stable growth rate is also discussed. The parameters belonging to sub -periods are compared and any structural differences are tested. As a conclusion, it is also explained that the growth rate of GNP has a long term trend of approximately 4,3% per annum and in cases when it is exceeded to a large extent, it fluctuated around the trend by turning the movement in the opposite direction.

The world and business computing in 2051

This paper projects the future of information technology within the context of the business and social environment in the mid 21st century. Some time in the next two decades we will enter our fourth industrial era, fueled by evolution in power, genetics, space exploration and information technologies. Unlike other industrial revolutions, this will be attended by widespread consolidations in industries as diverse as utility, retail, pharmaceuticals as well as the government. The trade wing of the UN, the United Nations Trade Organization (UNTO) is established to deal with global issues. The UNTO passes a number of resolutions including # 1/10 which deals with a uniform system of personal identification for all individuals. Due to free trade facilitated by electronic bureaucracies and global transportation grids, GNP growth rates triple. However, the consolidations will lead to the disappearance of clerical, administrative and management employees, leaving only the top management and highly skilled professionals. These changes will result in companies outsourcing all their routine processing to transaction and data centres. Employees will work from well equipped IT centres. The internet is in its third incarnation and is supported by a comprehensive web intelligence to answer all possible questions. Other technological changes include Terahertz computers, Personal identification Devices (PID), AI chips and hierarchical databases with relational interfaces. The cornucopia resulting from progress will lead to a more enlightened society. However, the stress of change will result in an increased degree of philosophical inquiry.

Identifying Nonlinear Components by Random Fields in the US GNP Growth. Implications for the Shape of the Business Cycle

Within a flexible parametric regression framework (Hamilton, 2001) we provide further evidence on the existence of a nonlinear component in the quarterly growth rate of the US real GNP. We implement a battery of new tests for neglected nonlinearity based on the theory of random fields (Dahl and Gonzalez-Rivera, 2003). We find that the nonlinear component is driven by the fifth lag of the growth rate. We show that our model is superior to linear and nonlinear parametric specifications because it produces a business cycle that when dissected with the BBQ algorithm mimics very faithfully the characteristics of the actual US business cycle. On understanding the relevance of the fifth lag, we find that the nonparametrically estimated conditional mean supports parametric specifications that allow for three phases in the business cycle: rapid linear contractions, aggressive short-lived convex early expansions, and moderate/slow relatively long concave late expansions.

Catching the wind: Clean and sustainable solutions to China's energy shortfall

China's ambitious power development programme has created a huge increase in power generation over the past two decades leading to a GNP growth rate the envy of most of the Asia-Pacific region. However, the price paid for a fast expanding electricity industry has been a heavy one due to China's heavy reliance on coal and the fact that only a small number of coal-fired stations have been fitted with full environmental protection equipment facilities so far. Refocus correspondent, David Hayes provides an update on how China is using windpower and other renewables to cater for increased energy demand in a sustainable way.

Historical Results II

This model implies that the growth rate in earnings is the retention rate times the return on equity, (b)(ROE). In discussing the models, I would like to stress an important point: If you are interpreting the growth in earnings as being the retention rate times the return on equity, you have to be very careful when you are working with historical data. For example, does the retention rate apply only to dividends or to dividends and other payouts, such as share repurchases? The distinction is important because those proportions change in the more recent period. And if you make that distinction, you have to make a distinction between aggregate dividends and per share dividends because the per share numbers and the aggregate numbers will diverge. In working with the historical data, I have attempted to correct for that aspect. The basic investment and constantgrowth models, used with some justifiable simplifying assumptions about the U.S. market, indicate that the earnings growth rate cannot be greater than the GNP growth rate because of political forces and that the expected return, or cost of capital, in the long run should unconditionally be about 1.5 times the dividend-to-price ratio plus GNP growth. Adding reasonable assumptions about inflation produces a finding that equity risk premiums cannot be more than 3 percent (300 bps) because earnings growth is constrained by the real growth rate of the economy, which has been in the 1.5–3.0 percent range. In a consideration of today’s market valuation, three reasons for the high market valuations seem possible: (1) stocks are simply seen as less risky, (2) valuation of equities is fundamentally determined by taxation, or (3) equity prices today are simply a mistake. A research question that remains and is of primary interest is the relationship between aggregate stock market earnings and GNP. T

Sermaye Hareketlerinin Nedenleri, Etkileri Ve Türkiye Örneği

This paper analyzes the causes and dimensions of international capital movements and their effects on developing countries with special reference to the case of Turkey. Capital inflows tend to increase imports and decrease exports by appreciating the currency while, simultaneously, increasing the growth rate by stimulating consumption and investment expenditures. In the case of Turkey, where the capital account had been opened before structural problems creating instability were solved and inflation was brought-down, capital inflows have been mostly short-term portfolio investments. Capital inflows and outflows have been closely correlated with sharp fluctuations in the GNP growth-rates in Turkey since the opening of the capital account; and, in general, we may say that the crises since then have originated from the interaction of capital outflows, large debt service and banking sector problems.

The recent deflationary gap in Japan: a quantitative measurement

Undoubtedly, the deflationary gap in the economy of recent Japan is very great. However, the White Paper series of EPAJ (Economic Planning Agency of Japanese Government) in recent years depends on a questionable interpretation of the concept of the gap, so that its analyses have been very misleading. In this paper, the author made up his mind to try to contrive an alternative way for measurement of the deflationary gap. The estimating procedure in the present study is as follows: 1. Computation of aggregate full employment and full utilization indexes of labor force and enterprises’ real fixed capital stock, by the use of original weights and adjusted weights, 2. Experimental-exogenous setting of the δ ratio, i.e., the ratio of the yearly rate of technological progress(%) to the yearly growth rate of real GNP(%) 3. Computation of the indexes of full-capacity GNP corresponding to each δ ratio, 4. Measurement of the deflationary gap. In the light of the computed results, we conclude that the deflationary gap in the recent (1997) Japan would amount to around 30–40% of the potential full-capacity GNP. The excessive breeding of deflationary gap in the Japanese economy was not a cyclical phenomenon but a long-term cumulative trend.

Quantification of the IS99 Emission Scenario Storylines Using the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework

In 1997–1999, an international team of scientists and modelers formulated a set of 40 global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios were designed as quantitative interpretations of four distinct scenario storylines that described alternative views on the global and regional demographic, socioeconomic, technological, and environmental development in the 21st century. The Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF) was one of the six models selected to develop the scenarios, which are referred to here as IS99 scenarios. The ASF-based (IS99-ASF) results include four GHG emissions scenarios and corresponding changes in the GHG atmospheric concentrations and the global average temperature. The IS99-ASF scenarios were generated by modifying such model inputs as: regional GNP/capita growth; ultimately recoverable fossil fuel resources; supply-side and end-use energy efficiency; the availability of renewable energy resources; and terrestrial carbon sinks. According to the ASF-based analysis, the largest cumulative GHG emissions and climate effects over the next century result from a combination of fast economic growth, a delayed reduction of the energy and carbon intensity of GNP, and an increase of the coal share in the primary energy supply (ASF-A1 scenario). At the same time, a slightly lower GNP growth rate combined with an increased use of renewable energy sources leads to the lowest cumulative GHG emissions and the stabilization of the CO 2 atmospheric concentration by 2100 at about 615 ppmv (ASF-B1 scenario).

Bootstrap confidence bands for shrinkage estimators

Empirical application of shrinkage estimators has been limited by the inability to estimate confidence intervals. We investigate confidence band estimators based on Edgeworth expansions and bootstrapping. Our Monte Carlo results suggest that both Efron's bias correction method with acceleration and the simple percentile bootstrap methods generate reasonable confidence bands. Approximations based on Edgeworth expansions performed poorly. We then use the percentile method with a single bootstrap to generate bands for predictions of GNP growth rates from a leading-indicators model. Our study shows that simple percentile bootstrap confidence bands perform well enough to support empirical applications of shrinkage estimators.

International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity

Using the Johansen cointegration technique, we find empirical evidence of long run comovements between five national stock market indexes and measures of aggregate real activity including the real oil price, real consumption, real money, and real output. Real returns on these indexes are typically related to transitory deviations from the long run relationship and to changes in the macroeconomic variables. Further, the constraints implied by the cointegration results yield some incremental information on stock return variation that is not already contained in dividend yields, interest rate spreads, and future GNP growth rates.

Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation

In this paper test statistics are proposed that can be used to test hypotheses about the parameters of the deterministic trend function of a univariate time series. The tests are valid in the presence of general forms of serial correlation in the errors and can be used without having to estimate the serial correlation parameters either parametrically or nonparametrically. The tests are valid for I(0) and I(1) errors. Trend functions that are permitted include general linear polynomial trend functions that may have breaks at either known or unknown locations. Asymptotic distributions are derived, and consistency of the tests is established. The general results are applied to a model with a simple linear trend. A local asymptotic analysis is used to compute asymptotic size and power of the tests for this example. Size is well controlled and is relatively unaffected by the variance of the initial condition. Asymptotic power curves are computed for the simple linear trend model and are compared to existing tests. It is shown that the new tests have nontrivial asymptotic power. A simulation study shows that the asymptotic approximations are adequate for sample sizes typically used in economics. The tests are used to construct confidence intervals for average GNP growth rates for eight industrialized countries using post-war data.

The effect of inflation on the natural rate of output: experimental evidence

We examine the inflation–output relationship in the USA for the period 1955–90. We start by replicating Smyth (1992) and subjecting his estimates to a series of diagnostic tests. The model is shown to satisfy conditions for valid inference (weak exogeneity) and policy analysis (super-exogeneity) (Engle, Hendry and Richard, 1983). These robustness checks allow us to study the out-of-sample consequences of the point estimates for various levels of inflation. One central experimental result is that for inflation rates exceeding 4% the natural rate of output is reduced to such an extent that it contributes to a reduction in the growth rate of real GNP that is below historical trend (3.1% in our sample).

Development Solutions for Africa: The Need for Policy Reform and Good Governance

With few exceptions, economic development in the African states has generally been elusive and the people in sub-Saharan Africa remain among the poorest in the world. From 1970 to 1990, GDP per capita in sub-Saharan Africa grew in real terms by only US$80 and the region’s aggregate GNP per capita was only US$340 in 1990. In terms of annual percentage change, the region registered a 1.8 percent annual growth from 1970-77, an annual decline of 3.0 percent from 1978-84, and an annual increase of 2.4 percent from 1985-90. However, for the entire period of 1970-90, growth was statistically insignificant. During the period 1980-92 the annual growth rate of GNP per capita in sub-Saharan Africa was recorded as -1.83.

Development Solutions for Africa: The Need for Policy Reform and Good Governance

With few exceptions, economic development in the African states has generally been elusive and the people in sub-Saharan Africa remain among the poorest in the world. From 1970 to 1990, GDP per capita in sub-Saharan Africa grew in real terms by only US$80 and the region’s aggregate GNP per capita was only US$340 in 1990. In terms of annual percentage change, the region registered a 1.8 percent annual growth from 1970-77, an annual decline of 3.0 percent from 1978-84, and an annual increase of 2.4 percent from 1985-90. However, for the entire period of 1970-90, growth was statistically insignificant. During the period 1980-92 the annual growth rate of GNP per capita in sub-Saharan Africa was recorded as -1.83.

Development Solutions for Africa: The Need for Policy Reform and Good Governance

With few exceptions, economic development in the African states has generally been elusive and the people in sub-Saharan Africa remain among the poorest in the world. From 1970 to 1990, GDP per capita in sub-Saharan Africa grew in real terms by only US$80 and the region's aggregate GNP per capita was only US$340 in 1990.1 In terms of annual percentage change, the region registered a 1.8 percent annual growth from 1970-77, an annual decline of 3.0 percent from 1978-84, and an annual increase of 2.4 percent from 1985-90. However, for the entire period of 1970-90, growth was statistically insignificant.2 During the period 1980-92 the annual growth rate of GNP per capita in subSaharan Africa was recorded as -1.83.3

Implementing monetary base rules: The currency problem

Monetary policy rules which rely on the monetary base have been advocated by Meltzer and McCallum. Proponents claim that following monetary base rules would minimize fluctuations around the target growth rate for nominal GNP. Critics of such rules contend that currency has not been properly accounted for in their analysis. This paper examines McCallum's monetary base rule by explicitly taking the demand for currency into account. Assuming that currency is supplied elastically, our investigation quantifies changes in the composition of the monetary base under these rules and provides an estimate of how these compositional changes might affect the variability around the target nominal GNP growth rate.

Learning, regime switches, and equilibrium asset pricing dynamics

We examine the autocorrelation properties of equilibrium returns when the growth rate of dividends, consumption, or GNP follows a Markov switching process. In contrast to earlier studies, we assume that the agent learns the current growth state using observed dividends and Bayes' rule. For the model with switching in the mean growth rate we find that learning significantly alters the pattern of returns, often generating positive rather than negative autocorrelation. For the model calibrated to GNP with switching in the variance of the growth rate, we show that learning induces negative autocorrelation.

Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis

Many econometric testing problems involve nuisance parameters which are not identified under the null hypotheses. This paper studies the asymptotic distribution theory for such tests. The asymptotic distributions of standard test statistics are described as functionals of chi-square processes. In general, the distributions depend upon a large number of unknown parameters. We show that a transformation based upon a conditional probability measure yields an asymptotic distribution free of nuisance parameters, and we show that this transformation can be easily approximated via simulation. The theory is applied to threshold models, with special attention given to the so-called self-exciting threshold autoregressive model. Monte Carlo methods are used to assess the finite sample distributions. The tests are applied to U.S. GNP growth rates, and we find that Potter's (1995) threshold effect in this series can be possibly explained by sampling variation.