Trade Growth Research Articles

The Impact of Information and Communication Technologies on International Trade: The Case of MENA Countries

Given the importance of international trade, we empirically investigate the impact of information and communication technologies on the exports, imports, and total trade of five service items by using a panel data for 19 MENA countries from 2005 to 2019. Unlike most previous studies, we use the Information and Communication Technologies Development Index, which is a composite index that combines 11 indicators that include the access, use, and skill aspects of the technology. The results are as follows: the Information and Communication Technologies Development Index has a negative and statistically significant effect on exports of information technology services, and a positive and statistically significant effect on imports and total trade in financial services. Furthermore, we found also that the Information and Communication Technologies access sub-index has a significant effect on total trade in information technology services and transport. For the Information and Communication Technologies use sub-index, its effect on imports of travel services and exports of both travel and information technology services is significant. It also has a significant positive effect on total trade in travel and information technology services. As for the Information and Communication Technologies skills sub-index, the results show that it has significant positive effects on total trade in IT services and travel, and a negative significant effect on transport. These results provide interesting policy insights for information and communication technologies development and the growth of services trade for policy makers.

Services' trade in Africa: Structure and growth

AbstractThis paper shows that trade in services is still at its infancy in Africa. Its growth started later than for other developed and developing economies and, so far, it involves mostly low‐skilled services. Disentangling the different sources of trade growth, we find that demand and supply determinants have been relatively stable during the period 2002–2016, while service diversification and trade policy are the main propellants. In particular, trade in goods liberalisation increased services trade as well due to the complementarities between the two. In terms of geographical and industrial involvement, services produced in Africa are able to reach farther destinations than goods, but they are concentrated on industries close to final demand, thus missing high‐skilled services that are more upstream, but represent higher value‐added inputs. Therefore, there is still plenty of scope to consider trade in services as a potential source of growth and development for African countries.

The digital silk road and trade growth – A quasi-natural experiment based on silk road E-commerce

The construction of the Digital Silk Road is an important component of the Belt and Road initiative. Based on data sourced from 190 countries between 2012 and 2019, this study examines the impact of building the Digital Silk Road on the development of foreign trade among countries along the route. The analysis employs a PSM-DID model that utilizes a quasi-natural experimental environment provided by the Silk Road e-commerce cooperation initiative. The study presents the following findings. First, the Digital Silk Road initiative helps promote the development of foreign trade among countries along the route. Second, the impact of this initiative on the development of foreign trade is primarily influenced by the levels of human capital and innovation. Third, the effect of this initiative on trade is more significant when the trading partner country has a high level of economic development, a high level of digital infrastructure development, or is not a neighboring country.

The Dynamic Impact of Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and Infrastructure in Laos

This study examines the dynamic impacts of economic growth, foreign direct investment, and some infrastructure variables in Laos with the time series data from 1995-2020, which have used the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach. The unit root test to check the stationarity of all variables in this study using the Augment Dicky Fuller (ADF) test with considering both level and at first difference. The empirical results of GMM found that the FDI is a major catalyst for economic growth in Laos which has a positive impact and is statistically significant at the level. Similarly, the role of infrastructure variables such as agriculture, industry, and service is the main of the most important indicators in supporting the economic growth in Laos, while telecommunication, electricity, air transport, and trade are positive but insignificant at the level. However, this study also found some variables such as labor, population growth, and life expectancy in support of economic growth which have a strongly positive and significant impact at the level, but the human capital is insignificant at the level. We, therefore, recommend that the government of Laos should attract and sustain more foreign direct investment and increase the infrastructural development to achieve the target of sustainable economic growth in the near future.

РАЗВИТИЕ ВНЕШНЕЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ДРАГОЦЕННЫМИ КАМНЯМИ, МЕТАЛЛАМИ И ЮВЕЛИРНЫМИ ИЗДЕЛИЯМИ В УРАЛЬСКОМ ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОМ ОКРУГЕ КАК ФАКТОР ПОВЫШЕНИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ СЛОЖНОСТИ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ

The article is based on testing the hypothesis of the relationship between the economic development of territories and identifying the most likely and profi table options for export diversifi cation, which, according to the authors of the study, in the Ural Federal District can be the export of precious stones, metals and jewelry. The purpose of the article is to show the connection between the development of foreign trade in precious stones, metals and jewelry in the Ural Federal District and the increase in its economic complexity. The article analyzes the scientifi c literature aimed at studying the peculiarities of foreign trade in precious stones, metals and jewelry, state and customs regulation of the movement of such goods across the customs border of the Eurasian Economic Union, which confi rmed the relevance of this study. The research process was based on an assessment of the economic complexity of Russia on a global scale, as well as the economic complexity of its districts. The main focus of the study was on identifying the points of growth of foreign trade in the Ural Federal District. To confirm the hypothesis put forward, a sequence of steps was applied involving the application of the theory of economic complexity of territories proposed by César A. Hidalgo. The statistical data of the Federal Customs Service for 2019–2021 formed the information base of the study. The data obtained as a result of the study showed that the most promising export direction for the Ural Federal District in the medium term, as part of the diversifi cation of the economy of this territory, from the point of view of increasing its economic complexity, are goods of commodity item 7115 of the EAEU Foreign Economic Activity Code — other products made of precious metals or metals clad with precious metals.

The impact of Chinese cross-border e-commerce development level on export trade

With the rise of trade protectionism, the growth rate of China's export trade has slowed down, but cross-border e-commerce exports have emerged as a "new engine" for China's foreign trade growth. The country has also begun to pay more attention to the development of cross-border e-commerce, introducing a series of policies and establishing many comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zones. Against this background, Studying the impact of the development level of cross-border e-commerce on export trade can provide a basis for formulating policies related to cross-border e-commerce, promote the development of cross-border e-commerce in various regions, and drive China's export growth, thereby empowering China's foreign trade industry transformation and upgrading. This article selects the number of online shopping users in each city as a proxy variable for the development level of cross-border e-commerce. Through regression analysis, it can be concluded that the development level of cross-border e-commerce can significantly positively affect export trade, and the heterogeneity analysis results show that there are regional differences in the impact of cross-border e-commerce development level on export trade. Finally, policy recommendations were provided based on the research findings.

Innovation in thinking and practice path of digital economy based on big data analysis to promote high-quality development of agricultural service trade

Abstract In order to coordinate the digital geographic planning of agriculture and clarify the grasp of agricultural integration and digital development, by building a connected coordination model of the digital economy and the high-quality growth of the agricultural services trade, this article is confirmed. First, the fundamental workings of the digital economy and their spatial spillover effects on the high-quality growth of the agricultural services sector are examined. To evaluate each method’s level of development, the TOPSIS methodology and the entropy value method are linked, and a coupling coordination model is created. The production of the high-quality agriculture service trade and digital economy index system follows. In the end, the empirical study of coupling coordination was carried out using data from each province in China from 2010 to 2020 as the original sample. The findings indicate that before 2015, in all provinces, the coupling coordination degree of the development of the agricultural service trade and the digital economy was less than 0.2. The coupling coordination degree showed a tendency of moderate expansion from 2016 to 2020, increasing by 583.33% from 2010 to 2020. This shows that as the digital economy has expanded, the agriculture services sector has also developed in a high-quality manner.

Dynamics of Bilateral Digital Trade: The Case of a Korea–EU Digital Partnership

The rapid growth of digital trade has had a profound impact on global economies, revolutionizing trading practices and facilitating trade expansion. The purpose of this paper is to explore the digital partnership between Korea and the European Union (EU) and its implications for their shared agenda in digital trade to theorize the dynamics of digital trade. A case study method is used to explore trade between Korea and the EU with in-depth descriptive analysis. Digital trade-flow statistics were analyzed to develop the case for Korea and EU digital trade and derive implications for both countries. The findings were generalized by discussing the relevant literature and data from other countries to identify the wider implications. The analysis was focused on the areas of information and communication technology and e-commerce. The findings suggest uncovered trade imbalances, such as Korea’s surplus of ICT goods exports and the EU’s dominant position in online trade. There is an influence of supply chain dynamics, specifically the presence of Korean manufacturers’ production units in countries like Vietnam, and the same dynamics have shaped Korea’s actual place in the supply of ICT goods to the European market. While the digital partnership was established to align regulatory frameworks and foster trust, transparency, and harmonization in the digital domain, it has failed to adequately reflect the importance of digital trade. Although both sides are motivated to collaborate on the harmonization of digital trade rules, there have been instances where the partners’ interests diverge. It is concluded that some political and economic factors may hinder the effectiveness of the digital partnership, unless concrete measures that go beyond traditional bilateral policymaking approaches are implemented. It is therefore recommended to emphasize the need to enhance the efficacy of the digital partnership by taking bolder actions to develop digital trade.

Overcoming Arbitrage Limits: Option Trading and Momentum Returns

AbstractMomentum profits depend mainly on the short leg and therefore on barriers to short sales. Our research indicates that the decline in momentum profitability in the past 2 decades is driven partly by a contemporaneous growth in stock options trading. Stock options offer an alternative to short selling, augmenting the stock lending market, and thereby contributing to improved pricing efficiency. The resulting reduction in barriers to short sales contributes to lower returns to momentum trading from the short leg. Our results persist after matching stocks with and without options based on different firm-level characteristics.

EFEKTIVITAS PERAN ORGANISASI KERJA SAMA ISLAM (OKI) DALAM MENURUNKAN KETIMPANGAN EKONOMI DI NEGARA-NEGARA ISLAM

This research is a descriptive research that aims to analyze the effectiveness of the role of the Islamic Cooperation Organization (OIC) in reducing economic inequality in Islamic countries, especially through the trade sector. The data collection method involves analysis of documents and online sources. Furthermore, this study uses qualitative data analysis with a secondary data approach. In this case the theory of international organizational effectiveness by Biermann and Bauer is used as a framework. This research reveals that the OIC has an effective role through institutions such as COMCEC and ICDT, with collaborative efforts and resource allocation through the IDB. Stakeholder involvement, institutional design, and concrete outputs such as the growth of intra-OIC trade and an increase in the GDP of member countries are evidence of the effectiveness of the OIC in reducing economic inequality through the trade sector. Despite facing challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, OIC has succeeded in proving its commitment in efforts to reduce economic inequality in Islamic countries in order to achieve more inclusive economic prosperity.

Macroeconomics Linkages on Indonesian Economic Growth: A Granger Causality Analysis

Macroeconomic indicators and trade performance are essential components of developing countries' development as a whole. The upheaval caused by government policies, the economic crisis, and the pandemic that facilitated economic mobility became a major challenge for countries around the world. The aim of this research is to examine the linkages between macroeconomic variables and trade growth in Indonesia using the Error Correction Model and Granger Causality approaches. According to this study, inflation and exchange rates have a significant negative impact on economic growth in the long run. Meanwhile, trade and foreign investment have a significant positive impact on economic growth, both short and long-term. Furthermore, evidence found a bidirectional relationship between inflation and economic growth. Foreign investment and the exchange rate, on the other hand, have a one-way relationship with Indonesian economic growth. Based on the study's findings, it is recommended that the governments of these countries implement measures and policies to manage the real exchange rate, stabilize inflation, and protect economic growth

Intensive and extensive margins of India's agricultural trade: implications for export diversification and development

PurposeThis paper aims to analyze relative contribution of intensive margin (IM) and extensive margin (EM) to growth in India's agricultural exports for the period 2001 to 2020. It also analyses the determinants of IM and EMs through a standard gravity model.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses export data from United Nations Comtrade, which is accessed through World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) software. Data for the period 2001 to 2020 were compiled for analysis using the Harmonized System (HS) of commodity classification system at the six-digit level. This study decomposed the contribution of IM and EM in the growth of Indian agricultural trade by using Hummels and Klenow's approach. After performing the export decomposition analysis, the authors analyze the factors influencing IM and EM by using the Tobit regression model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) method of estimation.FindingsThe EM grew at 1.24% per annum, while the intensive margin (IM) increased by 0.23%. The contribution of growth at the EM increased from 58.8% in 2001 to 70.2% in 2020. Export growth along the IM was relatively high for animal products and agricultural raw materials, while growth at the EM was an important contributor to the export growth of horticultural and processed agricultural products. There was a positive and significant effect of the free trade agreement (FTA) on export margins.Research limitations/implicationsMore disaggregated commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.Originality/valueThere is a scarcity of holistic and recent studies illustrating the role of IM and EMs in agricultural trade growth, covering a large number of commodities and geographies associated with Indian agricultural trade. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders in facilitating informed policy decisions.

Measurement of the Development Level of Cross-border E-Commerce in China's Provinces

In the context of the weak growth of traditional foreign trade, cross-border e-commerce has become an important means for Chinese enterprises to carry out international trade, and has played an important role in promoting the stable growth and structural adjustment of China's foreign trade. This paper selects sample data of 31 provinces in China from 2014-2021, and measures the level of cross-border e-commerce development in China's provinces using factor analysis from 22 subdivision indicators in three dimensions: infrastructure, cross-border e-commerce application degree and environmental support. The study of measuring and evaluating the level of cross-border e-commerce development in China's provinces helps to further identify the level and spatial differentiation of cross-border e-commerce development in each region of China, make horizontal comparisons of the development levels of different regions, and provide a scientific basis for formulating e-commerce policies from the perspective of spatial differentiation and economic development. The empirical results show that the overall cross-border e-commerce development in China's provinces maintains a good growth trend, but there is a large gap in the level of cross-border e-commerce development among different regions, with Guangdong, Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong belonging to the first echelon of cross-border e-commerce development, while western provinces such as Tibet, Ningxia and Qinghai are lagging behind in cross-border e-commerce development, and there is a significant gap in the level of cross-border e-commerce development among the eastern, central and western regions. Factor analysis also shows that the digitalization level of cross-border e-commerce enterprises, the level of technological innovation, express delivery, the number of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones and other cross-border e-commerce development environment have a greater impact on the level of cross-border e-commerce development, to improve the level of cross-border e-commerce development, we should take the declaration and construction of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones as a grasp to point and surface; we should pay attention to the main position of enterprises in cross-border e-commerce development, and give financial, talent, technical and other support to cross-border e-commerce enterprises. We should pay attention to the environment construction and optimization of cross-border e-commerce development, pay attention to the linkage of industrial development between regions, play a complementary role between regions, and promote the further development of cross-border e-commerce.

Characteristics analysis of intercontinental sea accidents using weighted association rule mining: Evidence from the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea

With the continuous growth of international trade and the number of ships, the pressure on marine safety is increasing. To strengthen the efficiency and pertinence of accident prevention and control measures, in-depth research on the characteristics of marine traffic accidents is of great significance. This study uses a Weighted Association Rule Mining (WARM) approach to investigate the association between marine traffic accidents characteristics. The Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea play a crucial role in global maritime transportation. The marine traffic accidents in the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea region from 2006 to 2020 are collected from the Lloyd's List Intelligence (LLI) database. Then, WARM is applied to obtain the characteristics of marine traffic accidents. The findings show that Flag of Convenience (FOC) vessels in the Mediterranean have a lower accident rate than non-FOC vessels do. Moreover, the results reveal a strong relationship between accidents and the age, gross tonnage, and ship type. Older general cargo ships with a gross tonnage between 500 and 3000 tons are more prone to accidents. This research provides insights for authorities to develop targeted measures for preventing specific types of accidents and enhancing marine safety.

Advertising as a factor in the development of Kazan city’ commercial press in the second half of the XIX century

The article enlightens the directions of development of the Kazan periodical press of the second half of the 19th century, associated with the growth of economy and trade. The main forms of advertising in Kazan newspapers are presented. The processes of commercialization of periodicals are shown, which are directly related to the transformation of advertising into the most important tool for working with the consumer and increasing the competitiveness of the enterprise. Based on archival sources, the main stages in the development of the Kazan commercial press in the second half of the 19th century are reflected.

The linkages between trade, financial openness, and economic growth in China: an ARDL-bound test approach

ABSTRACT This research examines the linkages between trade, financial openness, and economic growth in China from 1992 to 2021, using Granger causality analysis in the ECM model to identify the trend of a causal relationship between the variables. The results confirm the validity of export-led growth and the supply-leading hypotheses in China. Moreover, China’s broad money is output-oriented, and the significance of exports to China’s economy is supported by the influence of real income and imports caused by exports. Lastly, the research highlights that domestic credit expansion by the banking industry stimulates global trade growth; however, import changes cause broad money fluctuations. Policymakers can utilize these findings to identify the trend of the growth and development of the trade and financial industry of the economy, as there is substantial proof that a meaningful relationship is occurring between economic growth, trade, and the financial development sectors of the economy.

Trends and Problems of Development of Electronic Commerce in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Objective: The purpose of the article is an objective assessment of the state of electronic commerce in the Central Asian region, on the basis of which the identification of urgent problems that impede the expansion of online commerce in Uzbekistan in the context of a serious transformation in the digital space. The development of networks of modern highly efficient forms and methods of trade leads to its transformation into a modern service industry. In particular, these are small forms of trade: convenience stores or retail outlets at gas stations, discounters.
 
 Methodology: The paper uses the SWOT analysis method to assess the level of development of electronic commerce, its competitive advantages and prospects for further development, as well as forecasting methods to develop predictive indicators of trade development based on extrapolation.
 
 Results: This has a positive impact on a variety of parameters, including the rate of inflation, the proportion of the population whose income is below the level needed for subsistence, the dynamics of the gross regional product, and the growth of cross-border trade, amongst other things.
 
 Conclusion: When the proportion of a country's and region's gross domestic product (GDP) contributed by e-commerce grows, the indicators of socioeconomic development improve. At this stage, the task is to build our own e-commerce environment and integrate with global systems based on long-term strategies, determine the e-commerce architecture, which can be centralized (a single supranational structure), decentralized (a set of national structures) or hybrid.

Evaluation of China-ASEAN trade status and trade potential: An empirical study based on a gravity model.

The objective of this study was to identify factors influencing the development of China-ASEAN trade- from the total economic volume of both sides, distance, the population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of a free trade area, and the signing of the Belt and Road initiative, resource endowment per capita, the exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the land area of ASEAN countries-to develop a conceptual framework for China-ASEAN trade potential. This study uses panel data from 2001 to 2021 that is evenly distributed among 10 ASEAN countries to serve as the dataset. Firstly, the unit roots are checked and the cointegration relationships are examined, focusing on the heterogeneity test. Based on the classical trade gravity model, the innovative trade gravity model with key influencing factors is constructed. On the basis of the classical trade gravity model, an innovative trade gravity model of key influencing factors is constructed. The trade potential model is used to calculate the direct trade potential coefficient between China and ASEAN countries, which points out the direction for the sustainability of bilateral trade. This study finds that among the factors affecting China-ASEAN bilateral trade, the total economic output of both sides, distance, population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of the FTA, and the signing of the Belt and Road Initiative all have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Three influencing factors, namely per capita resource endowment, exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the size of ASEAN countries, have a negative impact on bilateral trade, but to a lesser extent. The trade potential between China and Vietnam falls into the category of potential re-modelling, indicating that both sides are currently utilizing their trade potential to the greatest extent possible, that trade growth space is limited, and that new trade opportunities must be discovered. The trade potential index between China and nine ASEAN countries, excluding Vietnam, is in the potential-exploiting category, indicating that the potential has not been fully utilized by both sides and that there is still room for growth in the scale of trade between the two countries. With the shift of the world's economic center of gravity in the direction of Asia following COVID-19, China and ASEAN countries should seize the opportunity to strengthen their comprehensive strength and economic aggregates and further develop China's constructive role in the regional organization. The signing of the Belt and Road Initiative and the construction of a free trade zone has had a positive effect on the development of bilateral trade. Propose that: positive trade factors should continue to be strengthened, trade barriers should be removed, and new dynamics of bilateral trade growth should be enhanced.

Comparative Analysis of General, Insurance Markets: Global Perspectives and Regional Trends

The global general insurance market has experienced robust growth in the past decade, driven by factors such as increasing awareness of insurance, economic growth, and regulatory reforms.The history of general insurance dates back to the Industrial Revolution in the west and the consequent growth of sea-faring trade and commerce in the 17th century.The general insurance market can be segmented into various categories based on product type, distribution channel, and geography.The global general insurance market is highly competitive, with several key players dominating the industry. The general insurance markets vary significantly across different regions, driven by factors such as economic development, regulatory frameworks, and cultural preferences.The global general insurance market is expected to witness steady growth in the coming years, driven by several factors like economic growth, regulatory reforms, technological advancement,changing customer behaviour,increasing risk. This article aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the general insurance markets from a global perspective, highlighting regional trends, key players, market size, and growth drivers.

The Gold Mining Boom, North European Capital, and the Reorganization of the Portuguese Slave Trade in Angola (1710-1730)

The article explores the reorganization of the Portuguese slave trade in Angola in the early eighteenth century when an upsurge in traffic took place along with a gold mining boom in Brazil. The appearance of a new group in the administration of the Angola contract, with the political support of the Crown and the financial assistance of merchants connected to London stimulated the expansion of the slaving frontier into Benguela. A large part of the historiography has interpreted this growth of the slave trade in Benguela as a phenomenon produced by local or “internal” developments of the Portuguese empire. My argument is that this shift was related to the international development of capitalism. The growing international competition over slave markets in the Gulf of Guinea and Loango pushed Portuguese authorities and slave traders to focus on the traffic in the areas to the south of Luanda. This process was financed by international credit networks and played a central role in the establishment of a new slaving frontier that supplied captives to the Brazilian goldfields.