Population Growth Research Articles

What was Killing Babies in Rostock? An Investigation of Infant Mortality Using Individual-Level Cause-of-Death Data, 1800–1904

This paper examines the causes of infant mortality for the Hanseatic city of Rostock, Germany, between 1800 and 1904. Based on unique individual-level church records from Rostock's largest inner-city parish, St. Jakobi, we apply the novel ICD10h coding system for the first time to the German context. Using this coding system, we analyse cause-specific patterns of infant, neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in an internationally comparable way and bring new insights into the determinants of 19th-century infant mortality, which was shaped by increase and stagnation in wide parts of Germany. Our results show that Rostock experienced a stagnating infant mortality rate at a low level in international comparison during the first 40 years of the 19th century, followed by severe increases during the next 20 years and a stage of slight decline and stagnation towards the end of the study period. This suboptimal development from 1840 was strongly related to post-neonatal mortality and causes of death that are related to unfavourable sanitary conditions and/or poor nutrition, which possibly hints at worsening housing and living conditions following accelerated population growth. Our analyses also reveal that water-food borne diseases were underestimated in Rostock, even though symptomatic disease terms such as convulsions and teething, that were frequently recorded over much of the 19th century, had deviating seasonality patterns and thus cannot entirely refer to this disease group but rather to a wide field of different diseases. The applied coding scheme is a significant step forward to foster comparative international research on historical cause-specific mortality.

Weather patterns determine success rates of two biocontrol agents on Cytisus scoparius in the USA

AbstractTo be effective, a biocontrol agent must survive and persist in the same habitat as the target species and reduce target population growth. When multiple biocontrol agents are used against a single invasive species, they may each perform better under a subset of the habitat in which the target lives. This complementarity allows for a more consistent level of control and a higher resilience to environmental variability. Two species that feed on the same plant tissues would compete, but niche partitioning in the native range may be replicated when both species are introduced to the invasive range. When biocontrol agents are released, they may self‐sort to perform best in their respective niches. We hypothesized that two biocontrol agents—Scotch broom seed beetle, Bruchidius villosus (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) and Scotch broom seed weevil, Exapion fuscirostre (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Brentidae)—that both feed on seeds of the invasive legume Scotch broom, Cytisus scoparius L. Link (Fabaceae), would be impacted differently by different weather conditions and plant traits, and would show different success rates at field sites with different conditions. We used a 5‐year study to reveal that the two biocontrol agents are not uniformly distributed in the field and that weather and plant factors influence their success. We confirmed that weather conditions of the previous year influenced biocontrol agent attack rate and found that weather patterns at a field site may predict the impact of each biocontrol agent.

What was Killing Babies in Rostock? An Investigation of Infant Mortality Using Individual-Level Cause-of-Death Data, 1800–1904

This paper examines the causes of infant mortality for the Hanseatic city of Rostock, Germany, between 1800 and 1904. Based on unique individual-level church records from Rostock's largest inner-city parish, St. Jakobi, we apply the novel ICD10h coding system for the first time to the German context. Using this coding system, we analyse cause-specific patterns of infant, neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in an internationally comparable way and bring new insights into the determinants of 19th-century infant mortality, which was shaped by increase and stagnation in wide parts of Germany. Our results show that Rostock experienced a stagnating infant mortality rate at a low level in international comparison during the first 40 years of the 19th century, followed by severe increases during the next 20 years and a stage of slight decline and stagnation towards the end of the study period. This suboptimal development from 1840 was strongly related to post-neonatal mortality and causes of death that are related to unfavourable sanitary conditions and/or poor nutrition, which possibly hints at worsening housing and living conditions following accelerated population growth. Our analyses also reveal that water-food borne diseases were underestimated in Rostock, even though symptomatic disease terms such as convulsions and teething, that were frequently recorded over much of the 19th century, had deviating seasonality patterns and thus cannot entirely refer to this disease group but rather to a wide field of different diseases. The applied coding scheme is a significant step forward to foster comparative international research on historical cause-specific mortality.

Groundwater modeling and estimation of the safe pumping rate for the sustainable use of groundwater resources in Kombolcha town, upper Borkena watershed, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The rate of groundwater extraction is increasing due to population growth. Balancing pumping rates with natural recharge is necessary for sustainable use. The safe groundwater pumping rate was determined using the groundwater model ModelMuse. To determine the safe pumping rate, 39 borehole data points were gathered and adjusted for 4, 8, and 12 h of pumping scenarios for 50 years in a steady-state pumping condition. The recharge rates in the study area were calculated using four empirical approaches in addition to the water balance method. Of the four empirical methods, the water balance technique provided the most accurate estimates of groundwater recharge, with an estimated average recharge rate of 176.75 mm per year. The ModelMuse model water balance report demonstrated that there was positive storage for all boreholes to be pumped simultaneously under 4- and 8-h pumping rate scenarios, but that there would be a significant drawdown under 12-h pumping from the stress period of 2039–2065, and the summation of inflow and outflow would become negative, indicating that the withdrawal rate is greater than the recharge rate. Thus, the safe pumping rate for Borkena groundwater was calculated to be 975 L/s in 8-h pumping rate scenarios.

Groundwater modeling and estimation of the safe pumping rate for the sustainable use of groundwater resources in Kombolcha town, upper Borkena watershed, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The rate of groundwater extraction is increasing due to population growth. Balancing pumping rates with natural recharge is necessary for sustainable use. The safe groundwater pumping rate was determined using the groundwater model ModelMuse. To determine the safe pumping rate, 39 borehole data points were gathered and adjusted for 4, 8, and 12 h of pumping scenarios for 50 years in a steady-state pumping condition. The recharge rates in the study area were calculated using four empirical approaches in addition to the water balance method. Of the four empirical methods, the water balance technique provided the most accurate estimates of groundwater recharge, with an estimated average recharge rate of 176.75 mm per year. The ModelMuse model water balance report demonstrated that there was positive storage for all boreholes to be pumped simultaneously under 4- and 8-h pumping rate scenarios, but that there would be a significant drawdown under 12-h pumping from the stress period of 2039–2065, and the summation of inflow and outflow would become negative, indicating that the withdrawal rate is greater than the recharge rate. Thus, the safe pumping rate for Borkena groundwater was calculated to be 975 L/s in 8-h pumping rate scenarios.

Three facets of urban metabolism (case of Kazakhstan)

ABSTRACT The urbanisation growth causes problems related to the provision and consumption of resources, ecology, and social living conditions in cities. The purpose of the article is to study the dependence of metabolic factors and the level of urban conveniences on the urbanisation level and to justify the need to monitor these processes and improve the management of urban systems with the purpose to achieve sustainable development objectives. Three aspects of the problem of urban metabolism and sustainable development of cities are considered in the article. They are energy consumption by megacities, social aspects of metabolism and growth of megacities, problems of urban improvement. The increasing risks of negative impact of urban growth on the environment and living conditions has been proven. It is shown that the resettlement flow of village residents to cities, especially large ones, remains high despite the deterioration of the environmental situation in large cities and the lag in the urban infrastructure development from the population growth rate. The expediency to expand the context of the urban metabolism problem was noted, including the exchange of resources between urban and rural to reduce spatial inequality, and to increase the sustainability of urban and rural settlements.

Pioneering solutions for sustainable protein production in future

Pioneering solutions for sustainable protein production in future InnoProtein consortium, explain why sustainable protein production is urgently needed and how, with its circular, zero-waste approach, InnoProtein supports this goal. By 2050, population growth will play a major role in the state of the environmental, social and economic system. (1) Traditional protein products, with their vast amounts of animal derivates, are being presented as sustainably obsolete due to the high consumption of natural resources employed for their production. (2) Current protein production has a high environmental impact, and a general transition towards greener and sustainable consumption is required. Agriculture is responsible for 70-85% of the world’s water footprint and 30% of global GHG emissions. Meat production is the most impactful activity in food production.

Acute toxicity of the fungicide captan to honey bees and mixed evidence for synergism with the insecticide thiamethoxam

Honey bees are commonly co-exposed to pesticides during crop pollination, including the fungicide captan and neonicotinoid insecticide thiamethoxam. We assessed the impact of exposure to these two pesticides individually and in combination, at a range of field-realistic doses. In laboratory assays, mortality of larvae treated with captan was 80–90% greater than controls, dose-independent, and similar to mortality from the lowest dose of thiamethoxam. There was evidence of synergism (i.e., a non-additive response) from captan-thiamethoxam co-exposure at the highest dose of thiamethoxam, but not at lower doses. In the field, we exposed whole colonies to the lowest doses used in the laboratory. Exposure to captan and thiamethoxam individually and in combination resulted in minimal impacts on population growth or colony mortality, and there was no evidence of synergism or antagonism. These results suggest captan and thiamethoxam are each acutely toxic to immature honey bees, but whole colonies can potentially compensate for detrimental effects, at least at the low doses used in our field trial, or that methodological differences of the field experiment impacted results (e.g., dilution of treatments with natural pollen). If compensation occurred, further work is needed to assess how it occurred, potentially via increased queen egg laying, and whether short-term compensation leads to long-term costs. Further work is also needed for other crop pollinators that lack the social detoxification capabilities of honey bee colonies and may be less resilient to pesticides.

Population expansion, larger, and more homogeneous native American ancestry among Mexican mestizo populations based on 10 X-chromosome STR loci (X-STR decaplex system).

To evaluate the genetic diversity, admixture, genetic relationships, and sex-biased demographic processes in Mexican Mestizo (admixed) populations based on 10 X-chromosome STRs (X-STRs). We analyzed the X-STRs Decaplex system in 104 Mexican Native Americans to obtain the ancestral reference needed to complete the demographic analyses above mentioned. We included reported Iberian and Latin American (admixed) populations from Central and South America, as well as datasets from Mexican Mestizos based on Y-linked STRs (Y-STRs), autosomal STRs (A-STRs), and mtDNA. Higher X-linked Native American ancestry was observed among Latin American populations regarding that reported from A-STRs and Y-STRs. The interpopulation differentiation based on ancestry among Mexican Mestizos diminished according to the inheritance pattern: Y-STRs (highest), A-STRs, X-STRs, and mtDNA (lowest). This finding is related to the peculiar admixture process that occurred during and after the Spanish Conquest of Mexico (and most of Latin America), involving a large number of Spanish men (Y-chromosomes) with a lesser proportion of X-chromosomes than autosomes; besides to the limited number of Spanish women (XX) arrived in the Americas in subsequent and shorter periods. Population expansion was detected in Mexican Mestizos from all the country, except those from the southeast region characterized by elevated indigenous ancestry, marginalization, and poorness. Population growth was detected in most Mexican Mestizos, besides more homogeneous and larger Native American ancestry based on X-linked inheritance than that based on autosomal STRs and Y-STRs.

Pengaruh Pendidikan, Kesehatan, TPT, dan LPT Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Papua

The challenge of poverty, defined as the inability to meet life's essentials, is prevalent in many countries, including Indonesia, particularly in Papua Province, which records the highest poverty rate. Various factors contribute to poverty, such as low education, deteriorating health conditions, rising unemployment, and population growth. This study aims to explore the relationship between these factors and poverty rates, particularly focusing on their impact on the region's increasing poverty levels. The research employs multiple linear regression analysis using time series data and SPSS software. The findings indicate that health status significantly influences poverty levels, exhibiting a strong positive correlation. However, the study finds no significant impact of education on poverty levels, despite a positive correlation. Moreover, population growth shows no significant effect and demonstrates a negative correlation with poverty rates.

Macroeconomic Drivers of Electricity Prices in Nigeria

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 10pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 14pt;">Electricity price volatility in developing economies, particularly Nigeria, presents a significant challenge to sustainable development. In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic drivers of electricity prices (ELP) in Nigeria based on annual data spanning 1980-2022 and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure. Our model estimates the long-run and short-run impacts of population growth (PG), economic growth (GDP), crude oil price (COPR), and electricity consumption (ELC) on electricity prices (ELP). The empirical findings reveal a positive and long-run effect of PG on ELP, indicating that rising demand from a growing population increases electricity prices. In the short-run, ELC surprisingly co-moved with ELP, which may be attributable to price-sensitive demand within specific consumer segments or periods. Furthermore, GDP and COPR exert positive effects on ELP, indicating that economic growth drives energy consumption and prices, and the cost-driven impact of fossil fuel dependence in electricity generation. These findings shed light on the complex interplay of demographic, economic, and energy market-related forces driving electricity prices in Nigeria. Therefore, the paper proposes some policy suggestions based on the empirical findings.</span></p>

Macroeconomic Drivers of Electricity Prices in Nigeria

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 10pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 14pt;">Electricity price volatility in developing economies, particularly Nigeria, presents a significant challenge to sustainable development. In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic drivers of electricity prices (ELP) in Nigeria based on annual data spanning 1980-2022 and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure. Our model estimates the long-run and short-run impacts of population growth (PG), economic growth (GDP), crude oil price (COPR), and electricity consumption (ELC) on electricity prices (ELP). The empirical findings reveal a positive and long-run effect of PG on ELP, indicating that rising demand from a growing population increases electricity prices. In the short-run, ELC surprisingly co-moved with ELP, which may be attributable to price-sensitive demand within specific consumer segments or periods. Furthermore, GDP and COPR exert positive effects on ELP, indicating that economic growth drives energy consumption and prices, and the cost-driven impact of fossil fuel dependence in electricity generation. These findings shed light on the complex interplay of demographic, economic, and energy market-related forces driving electricity prices in Nigeria. Therefore, the paper proposes some policy suggestions based on the empirical findings.</span></p>

Reconstructing a 300-year history of phosphorus cycle in west Chaohu Lake, China

Anthropogenic activities could significantly increase nutrients loading, especially phosphorus (P), into aquatic systems, leading to eutrophication and disturbance of ecosystems. Detailed investigation of P cycling and its controlling factors in modern lakes could help understand mechanisms behind eutrophication, thus provide suggestions for future environmental management. Here, we investigate evolution history of P and iron (Fe) cycling over the last ∼300 years in west Chaohu Lake, a typical eutrophic lake in East China. The combination of 210Pb-137Cs dating and elemental analysis demonstrates drastic escalation of P input and organic carbon burial since 1960s, coincided with the rapid growth of human population near this region. P phase partitioning data indicate that Fe-bound P (PFe) is the predominant P pool of sediments in Chaohu Lake, which also regulates the evolving trend of reactive P (Preac). Moreover, the highest fraction of PFe is consistent with observations via P K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure (P XANES). In addition, Fe speciation results show a principal contribution of Fe (hydr)oxides (Feox) and negligible presence of pyrite, suggesting a generally oxygenated depositional environment, where P could be preferentially sequestrated in sediments in association with Fe oxide minerals. Relatively high molar organic carbon/organic P (Corg/Porg) but low Corg/Preac ratios also support limited recycling of Preac in west Chaohu Lake. This study reveals that human activities play an important role in leading to the eutrophication of Chaohu Lake. Future environmental management could utilize the coupling of P and Fe oxides to remove P from water column.

The Tendency of Livestock Growth in Ethiopia: A Review

Ethiopia ranks first in Africa and 5th in the globe in its livestock population. The livestock subsector is immensely contributing about 60-70 % to the population’s livelihood and about 80% of the farmers use animal traction to plough their croplands. This study involved gathering livestock-based data from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) for the years 2004/05 to 2018/19. Additionally, information on livestock holders was systematically organized and analyzed to track progress over the years. Quantifiable values indicating increases were presented in tables and figures. The relationship between cattle numbers and livestock owners’ growth trends was tested using the Pearson correlation. The findings were further supported or challenged through a comprehensive literature review. The data show that the cattle population grew by 57% in 2018/19 than the number it was at the end of 2004/05 and the number of cattle owners increased by about 53 %. Likewise, the total number of sheep population grew by 82.69 % and their holders by 53%, the total goat heads grew by 162.2% and the camel population by 284%. From the total stock of cattle, 97.92% and 99.72% of sheep and all the goats and camels were identified as indigenous, respectively. The study found a significant and strong correlation (p less than 0.01) between the number of animals used for production and the number of holders. This suggests that the growth in livestock population is primarily due to an increased number of livestock owners, rather than an increase in the number of animals per holder. The work identifies bottlenecks in livestock development and provides insights into growth trends and underlying causes. It highlights opportunities for policy interventions to enhance sustainable livestock production. Further research is recommended on addressing feed and water shortages and evaluating policy and institutional setup effectiveness.

The Tendency of Livestock Growth in Ethiopia: A Review

Ethiopia ranks first in Africa and 5th in the globe in its livestock population. The livestock subsector is immensely contributing about 60-70 % to the population’s livelihood and about 80% of the farmers use animal traction to plough their croplands. This study involved gathering livestock-based data from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) for the years 2004/05 to 2018/19. Additionally, information on livestock holders was systematically organized and analyzed to track progress over the years. Quantifiable values indicating increases were presented in tables and figures. The relationship between cattle numbers and livestock owners’ growth trends was tested using the Pearson correlation. The findings were further supported or challenged through a comprehensive literature review. The data show that the cattle population grew by 57% in 2018/19 than the number it was at the end of 2004/05 and the number of cattle owners increased by about 53 %. Likewise, the total number of sheep population grew by 82.69 % and their holders by 53%, the total goat heads grew by 162.2% and the camel population by 284%. From the total stock of cattle, 97.92% and 99.72% of sheep and all the goats and camels were identified as indigenous, respectively. The study found a significant and strong correlation (p less than 0.01) between the number of animals used for production and the number of holders. This suggests that the growth in livestock population is primarily due to an increased number of livestock owners, rather than an increase in the number of animals per holder. The work identifies bottlenecks in livestock development and provides insights into growth trends and underlying causes. It highlights opportunities for policy interventions to enhance sustainable livestock production. Further research is recommended on addressing feed and water shortages and evaluating policy and institutional setup effectiveness.

Virulence factors of Salmonella spp. isolated from free-living grass snakes Natrix natrix.

Salmonellosis associated with reptiles is a well-researched topic, particularly in China and the United States, but it occurs less frequently in Europe. The growth of the human population and changes in the environment could potentially increase the interaction between humans and free-living reptiles, which are an unidentified source of Salmonella species. In this study, we sought to explore this issue by comparing the microbiota of free-living European grass snakes, scientifically known as Natrix natrix, with that of captive banded water snakes, or Nerodia fasciata. We were able to isolate 27 strains of Salmonella species from cloacal swabs of 59 N. natrix and 3 strains from 10 N. fasciata. Our findings revealed that free-living snakes can carry strains of Salmonella species that are resistant to normal human serum (NHS). In contrast, all the Salmonella species strains isolated from N. fasciata were sensitive to the action of the NHS, further supporting our findings. We identified two serovars from N. natrix: Salmonella enterica subspecies diarizonae and S. enterica subspecies houtenae. Additionally, we identified three different virulotypes (VT) with invA, sipB, prgH, orgA, tolC, iroN, sitC, sifA, sopB, spiA, cdtB and msgA genes, and β-galactosidase synthesised by 23 serovars. The identification of Salmonella species in terms of their VT is a relatively unknown aspect of their pathology. This can be specific to the serovar and pathovar and could be a result of adaptation to a new host or environment.

Septoplasty During Primary Cleft Lip Reconstruction: A Historical Perspective and Scoping Review.

Traditional surgical approaches excluded septoplasty at primary cleft lip reconstruction due to concerns about restricted nasal and midfacial growth. Modern opinion in the treatment of cleft lip has increasingly employed primary septoplasty; this scoping review and historical perspective aims to chronicle the evolution of septoplasty in patients born with cleft lip and palate and discuss current evidence. The historical perspective explicitly contrasts American and European perceptions of septoplasty in cleft lip deformity and the competing anatomical theories of the role of the septum on midfacial and nasal growth. For the scoping review, articles were extracted from Embase, PubMed, and Medline, as well as manual searches of reference lists. Results were compiled, grouped, and appraised by date, outcomes, and historical significance. Inclusion criteria consisted of children who underwent primary septoplasty for any indication and were followed up on outcomes of facial growth and nasal function. Literature reviews, opinion articles, case reports, guidelines, or studies not available in English or online were excluded. Evolving anatomical theories relating to midfacial growth in the mid-late 20th century underpinned a progressive ideological shift on the safety and efficacy of septoplasty in children. This is supported by our scoping review, which included 23 articles mutually selected for inclusion by 2 blinded assessors. Several competing methods have been employed to measure endpoints on facial growth and nasal function, but generally indicate primary septoplasty is successful in improving nasal function and preserving midfacial growth. Perceptions towards septoplasty on facial growth in the pediatric population have transformed significantly and suggest a growing acceptance of primary septoplasty techniques in patients born with a cleft lip.

New perspective on the role of Doru luteipes as a predator of the fall armyworm: Non‐consumptive effects, predatory preference and functional response

AbstractIn Brazil, the common earwig Doru luteipes (Scudder) (Dermaptera: Forficulidae) is considered an important biocontrol agent for the maize crop, consuming the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) eggs and caterpillars from 1st to the 3rd instar. Despite this, several aspects of the interaction between these species have not yet been studied. We aim to evaluate the non‐consumptive effects of earwigs on the oviposition of moths, the earwig's predatory preference between eggs and neonates and its functional response to S. frugiperda eggs. In no‐choice tests between plants with or without the presence of the predator, S. frugiperda moths deposited a smaller number of eggs on plants with risk of predation. In choice‐based tests, earwigs initially attacked newborn caterpillars, but preferred to feed on eggs. Males and females fed more on eggs with increasing supply density and consumption was adjusted to the type II functional response curve. D. luteipes males were more efficient predators than females when exposed to higher egg densities. These findings clarify aspects of the predatory role of D. luteipes on S. frugiperda that had not yet been addressed and suggest that the earwig has potential for impacting the colonization and population growth of S. frugiperda in maize crops, if conditions are favourable to its early arrival.

Plant Size and Cost of Flowering Interact to Govern Population Growth Rate in a Rare Endemic Plant Species, Smooth Coneflower

Plant Size and Cost of Flowering Interact to Govern Population Growth Rate in a Rare Endemic Plant Species, Smooth Coneflower

Environmental Pollution and Its Design Presentation in Advertising (Plastic Pollution as a Model)

The relentless pursuit of technological and industrial advancement, coupled with population growth, has erected obstacles that have exacerbated the problem of environmental pollution. Environmental pollution has caused significant losses to living organisms and health systems worldwide. However, there is a realistic hope that many of us will see an improvement in the situation in the coming years. This study explores ways to present environmental advertising as a source of information that can influence individual and societal decisions, and the change it brings about in the thoughts and behaviors of individuals and societies. It also identifies appropriate strategies for designing environmental advertising by highlighting the collection and amplification of the design elements to show the problem of environmental pollution on a wide scale. The first chapter addresses the research problem and is summarized by the question: What is environmental pollution and how can it be presented in advertising design? The importance of the study is as follows: Theoretical importance: The possibility of benefiting from this study in environmental studies, and the benefit of learning about the scientific results produced by this study. The research objective is to identify ways to present the problem of plastic pollution in environmental advertising designs. The second chapter presents previous studies and the theoretical framework, which includes two sections: the first deals with (environmental pollution), and the second deals with (environmental advertising). After completing the theoretical framework, the indicators that were used in the axis analysis questionnaire were extracted. The third chapter is dedicated to the research procedures. And among the results that the researcher reached: Finding the motivation for change through image, text, and color. One of the most important conclusions of the study is that: Environmental advertising is an effective tool in spreading environmental awareness, by providing information, statistics, and urging individual and social responsibility towards the various environmental problems. The communication of environmental advertising is based on strategies for conveying information to the public, largely through images, especially in linguistically and culturally heterogeneous societies.