Multifactor Productivity Growth Research Articles

ICT and Growth: The Role of Rates of Return and Capital Prices

We revisit the widely discussed contribution of investment in ICT to economic growth, focusing on differences in productivity and quality of ICT across countries and time. In a growth accounting approach, we look at the way rates of return and rates of asset price decline measure these aspects. Conducting a sensitivity analysis with data from the EU KLEMS database for the years 1990–2007, we introduce a constant rate of return and a constant rate of ICT price decline. Both alternative measurements somewhat downplay the role investment played relative to growth in multifactor productivity in the U.K. and the U.S. during 1995–2000. Moreover, we show that more than half of the ICT contribution to labor productivity growth results from changes in capital quality and composition rather than from quantity.

Firm Productivity Growth and Skill

This paper examines the relationship between firm multifactor productivity growth (mfp) and changing skill levels of labour in New Zealand, over the period 2001-12, using longitudinal data from Statistics New Zealand’s Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) and Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI). We estimate that the average skill of workers declined by 1.8% over the period, reflecting strong employment growth for workers with lower than average skill levels. The net decline was the combined effect of a 3.6% decline in unobserved skill outweighing a 1.8% increase in observed skill, resulting in 1.8% slower estimated skill-adjusted labour growth (13.3%) than the 15.0% growth in full-time equivalent (FTE) employment. Mirroring the skill-dilution, skill-adjusted mfp growth averaged 0.24% per annum over the period compared to 0.14% pa for unadjusted growth. The patterns were stronger over the pre-GFC period to 2008, during which adjusted and unadjusted mfp grew 0.57% pa and 0.42% pa respectively. Our analysis of the effect of changing skill on mfp growth finds that the impact of skill adjustment was almost entirely due to changing skill composition within continuing firms.

Quantifying “Dog Days”

In Dog Days, Garnaut (2013) portrays Australia's immediate future as characterised by the end of the mining investment boom, declining terms of trade, a decline in labour input per head of population, slow multifactor productivity growth, fiscal consolidation and rising world interest rates. We quantify the consequences of these developments using a detailed general equilibrium model. Consistent with Garnaut, we find that wage and demand restraint will be required to steer Australia through the difficult period ahead. Public understanding of Dog Days will help move expectations to match current unfavourable conditions and thereby promote an orderly adjustment with minimum damage to employment and standards of living.

When High Growth is Not Enough: Rethinking Russia's Pre-Crisis Economic Performance

Based on newly available data, we argue that multifactor productivity increases over the period 1995-2008 generated only about a half of Russia’s GDP growth, a smaller increase than most previous estimates. Further, growth in multifactor productivity seems to have contributed to a smaller share of GDP growth in 2003-2008 than in the first seven years of our observation period. These results imply that increases in capital inputs, and consequently investments in fixed capital, are more important than previously thought for Russia’s economic growth. Detailed analysis of industry-level data reveals two drivers of economic growth in the period: the extended oil & gas sector and high-skill-intensive services. Our analysis indicates that growth in the extended oil & gas sector reflected increased capital inputs, while growth in high-skill-intensive services seems to be part of catching up with more advanced markets. Neither sector is likely to spur growth in the coming decade.

Wage Differentials and Their Determinants in US Tourism and Tourism-Associated Industries

This paper examines variations in wages for tourism and tourism-associated industries in the USA for the period 2004–2009. It critically assesses the extent to which tourism and tourism-associated activities conform to their low-wage stereotype and finds this to be true in general, but not universally. It then considers the possibility that wages in US tourism and tourism-associated industries can be explained by observable characteristics of these industries. Recent research suggests that the use of wage data at the level of highly detailed occupations is an effective alternative to other ways of capturing underlying skill differences. Accordingly, data from the US Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) were used to provide this detail. The results strongly support the importance of difference in wages between occupations in understanding differences between industries. They also support the importance of a number of industry characteristics, including profitability, multi-factor productivity and demand growth. The paper also considers the relevance of an industry wage premium or discount for tourism and tourism-associated activities in the USA over the same period. It estimates an industry wage model separately for five individual occupations across all industries that employ for the occupation concerned. The analysis shows that workers in the two more highly paid occupations exhibit evidence of a tourism and tourism-associated discount but that workers in the three more lowly paid occupations exhibit a tourism and tourism-associated wage premium.

Is Mining Fuelling Long‐Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995

GDP per capita growth rates in Russia have been amongst the highest in the world since the mid‐1990s. Previous growth accounting research at the macro‐level suggests that this was mainly driven by multi‐factor productivity (MFP) growth. In this paper we analyze for the first time the drivers of Russian growth at the level of industries. We derive a proper measure of capital services, instead of using stock measures as in previous research. Using this, we find that aggregate GDP growth is driven as much by capital input as MFP growth. Mining and Retailing industries are growing fast, but have poor MFP performance. In contrast, MFP growth was high in goods‐producing industries but their share in GDP declined. MFP growth was highest in those industries that were particularly underdeveloped in the Russian economy in the 1990s.

Measuring the evolution of Korea’s material living standards 1980–2012

Based on a production-theoretic framework, we measure the effects of real output prices, primary inputs, and multi-factor productivity growth on Korea’s real income growth over the past 30 years. The empirical analysis is based on a new dataset for Korea with detailed information on labor and capital inputs, including series on land and inventories assets. We find that while over the entire period, capital and labor inputs explain the bulk of Korean real income growth, productivity growth has come to play an increasingly important role since the mid-1990s, providing some evidence of a transition from ‘input-led’ to ‘productivity-led’ growth. Terms of trade and other price effects were modest over the longer period, but had significant real income effects over sub-periods.

Global Trends of Multi-factor Productivity: Estimation and Application

Multi-factor productivity (MFP) compares the growth of gross domestic product with the growth of combined capital and labor inputs. The growth rate of MFP assumes theoretical significance because it represents the slope of the steady-state growth path, and hence is a major determinant of the long-term growth trend. This paper offers a balanced panel of the estimated growth rates of MFP for 24 OECD countries over 1986-2011. Based on the estimates of MFP growth, a number of notable trends in productivity growth are identified for the entire OECD area as well as for three major economies – the US, the Eurozone and Japan – within the OECD. In addition, this paper presents panel estimation results confirming that research and development (R&D) is a key determinant of MFP growth.

Policy incentives for private innovation and maximising the returns

This paper uses panel regression techniques to assess the policy determinants of private-sector innovative activity – proxied by R&D expenditure and the number of new patents – across 19 OECD countries. The relationship between innovation indicators and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth is also examined with a particular focus on the role of public policies in influencing the returns to new knowledge. The results establish an empirical link between R&D and patenting, as well as between these measures of innovation intensity and MFP growth. Innovation-specific policies such as R&D tax incentives, direct government support and patent rights are found to be successful in encouraging the innovative activities associated with higher productivity growth. However, direct empirical evidence of the positive effects of these policies on productivity is less forthcoming. A pervasive theme from the analysis is the importance of coupling policies aimed at encouraging innovation or technological adoption with well-designed framework policies that allow knowledge spillovers to proliferate. In particular, the settings of framework policies relating to product market regulation, openness to trade and debtor protection in bankruptcy provisions are found to be important for the diffusion of new technologies. JEL classification: L20, O30, O40 Keywords: Intangible assets, innovation, productivity growth, public policy

Innovation and Growth: Considerations for Public Policy

This paper uses panel regression techniques to assess the policy determinants of private sector innovative activity – proxied by R&D expenditure and the number of new patents – across 19 OECD countries. The relationship between innovation indicators and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth is also examined with a particular focus on the role of public policies in influencing the returns to new knowledge. The results establish an empirical link between R&D and patenting, as well as between these measures of innovation intensity and MFP growth. Innovation?specific policies such as R&D tax incentives, direct government support and patent rights are found to be successful in encouraging the innovative activities associated with higher productivity growth. However, direct empirical evidence of the positive effects of these policies on productivity is less forthcoming. A pervasive theme from the analysis is the importance of coupling policies aimed at encouraging innovation or technological adoption with well designed framework policies that allow knowledge spillovers to proliferate. In particular, the settings of framework policies relating to product market regulation, openness to trade and debtor protection in bankruptcy provisions are found to be important for the diffusion of new technologies.

Correction for variations in capacity utilization in the measurement of productivity growth: A non-parametric approach

The multifactor productivity growth estimate published by statistical agencies should be corrected for the effect of the short run variations in capacity utilization for such estimate to be a measure of technological progress. But such correction is not normally made as the rate of capacity utilization is often not observed. This paper develops a nonparametric approach for adjusting multifactor productive growth measure for variation in capacity utilization over time. In the approach developed here, the capital utilization measure is derived from the economic theory of production and is estimated by comparing the ex-post return with the ex-ante expected return on capital. The approach offers a practical solution that can be used by statistical agencies to adjust for capacity utilization in their multifactor productivity growth measure. The nonparametric approach is implemented using the data for the manufacturing sector from the Canadian Productivity Program of Statistics Canada, and is found to correct for the bias from the variation in capacity utilization in that sector.

The sources of economic growth and relative backwardness in the Central Eastern European countries between 1995 and 2007

This article investigates the sources of economic growth and relative backwardness in 10 Central Eastern European (CEE) post-socialist countries between 1995 and 2007. It executes both growth accounting and development accounting for the CEE countries. The results show the primary source of economic growth was the accumulation of physical capital in the period investigated, followed by the growth of multifactor productivity. The contribution of labour was marginal in most cases. These growth accounting results are consistent with those of development accounting, which show that substantial backwardness (compared with Germany) prevailed only in capital intensity and multifactor productivity in the 10 CEE countries. Beyond the empirics of the growth path of the CEE countries, this study also contributes from a methodological standpoint by providing a thorough overview of the possible techniques of initial capital stock estimation.

Do Product Market Regulations in Upstream Sectors Curb Productivity Growth? Panel Data Evidence For OECD Countries

Abstract We identify the impact of intermediate goods markets imperfections on productivity downstream. Our empirical specification is based on a model of multifactor productivity (MFP) growth in which the effects of upstream competition can vary with distance to frontier. This model is estimated on a panel of fifteen OECD countries and twenty industries over 1985 to 2007. Competitive pressures are proxied with industry product market regulation data. We find evidence that anticompetitive upstream regulations have significantly curbed MFP growth over the past fifteen years, and more strongly so for observations that are close to the productivity frontier.

Australian Productivity Growth: Trends and Determinants

AbstractAustralian productivity growth has slowed since the mid‐2000s, particularly compared with the period of strong growth in the late 1990s. This has partly been a global phenomenon. In commodity‐exporting economies, rapid capital stock growth has coincided with declining growth of multifactor productivity. While productivity growth in Australia has been particularly weak in the mining and utilities industries, productivity growth has slowed in other industries. A number of potential explanations for the slowdown is considered. The article concludes with a discussion of trends in the terms of trade and the exchange rate and the implications of these for productivity growth.

US TFP growth and the contribution of changes in export and import prices to real income growth

Using recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the US Department of Agriculture, the paper calculates the multifactor productivity (MFP) Growth for an Extended Business Sector of the US economy for the years 1987–2011. The Extended Business Sector (EBS) consists of the entire US economy less the inputs used and outputs produced by the Public Administration sector and less the US housing sector. The study found that MFP growth in the EBS averaged 1.157 % per year, somewhat higher than BLS MFP growth in the Private Sector which averaged 0.962 % per year. The study also produced estimates of MFP where a net output concept was used. Finally, the effects of changes in the prices of US exports and imports on real income growth was calculated using a translog model based on the work of Diewert and Morrison and Kohli.

Export Growth, Capacity Utilization, and Productivity Growth: Evidence from the Canadian Manufacturing Plants

Aggregate labor and multifactor productivity growth slowed substantially post‐2000 in the Canadian manufacturing sector. To examine the source of the decline, this paper proposes a decomposition method that delves deeper into the two micro‐components of aggregate productivity growth: a within‐plant component and a between‐plant component. The decomposition builds on earlier work by Jorgenson and his collaborators that decomposes aggregate productivity growth into its industry components, but applies it to the plant level and introduces non‐neoclassical features of the plant‐level economic environment. It finds that the preponderance of the aggregate labor and multifactor productivity growth slowdown is due to the pro‐cyclical nature of productivity growth arising from capacity utilization. Almost all of the aggregate productivity growth slowdown is driven by exporters, as exporters experienced large declines in labor productivity growth in the post‐2000 period as a result of large declines in their capacity utilization.

Australia’s mining productivity decline: implications for MFP measurement

This paper investigates the mining sector’s poor productivity performance as measured by the growth accounting formula for multifactor productivity (MFP) index during the recent mining boom in Australia. We provide an alternative measure of productivity growth by estimating a translog variable cost function, with parameters that separate productivity growth due to technical change from that due to the effects of returns to scale, capacity utilisation and natural resource inputs. The results show that the average MFP growth in Australian mining based on the dual cost-function measure of technical change is 2 % over the sample period 1974–1975 to 2007–2008, rather than −0.2 % from the published index. The difference arises because declining natural resource inputs, the effects of capacity utilisation and returns to scale have all reduced the ‘true’ MFP growth.

Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends since 1995

GDP per capita growth rates in Russia have been among the highest in the world since the mid-1990s. Previous growth accounting research suggests that this was mainly driven by multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. In this paper we analyse for the first time the drivers of Russian growth for thirty-four industries over the period 1995 to 2008. We pay in particular attention to the construction of a proper measure of capital services, to use in place of the stock measures employed in previous research. Based on these new measures, we find that aggregate GDP growth is driven as much by capital input as by MFP growth. Mining and Retailing account for an increasing share of the inputs, but are weak in terms of MFP performance. In contrast, MFP growth was rapid in goods-producing industries, but the sector’s GDP share declined. The major drivers of MFP growth were in the high-skilled services industries that were particularly underdeveloped in the Russian economy in the 1990s.

Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995

GDP per capita growth rates in Russia have been among the highest in the world since the mid?1990s. Previous growth accounting research suggests that this was mainly driven by multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. In this paper we analyse for the first time the drivers of Russian growth for thirty-four industries over the period 1995 to 2008. We pay in particular attention to the construction of a proper measure of capital services, to use in place of the stock measures employed in previous research. Based on these new measures, we find that aggregate GDP growth is driven as much by capital input as by MFP growth. Mining and Retailing account for an increasing share of the inputs, but are weak in terms of MFP performance. In contrast, MFP growth was rapid in goods-producing industries, but the sector's GDP share declined. The major drivers of MFP growth were in the high-skilled services industries that were particularly underdeveloped in the Russian economy in the 1990s. JEL: O47; P28; L16 Key words: industrial growth accounting, structural change, Russia

Three Worlds of Productivity Growth: Human Capital Policy Profiles and Productivity Growth Outcomes

Labor productivity is an important determinant of the wealth of national economies and their standards of living, as its growth explains half of per capita GDP growth. We show that there are three worlds of productivity growth among industrialized countries, by decomposing labor productivity growth into multifactor productivity (MFP) growth and capital deepening. The three worlds that emerge from the analysis are: 1) human capital investment and MFP growth dominant Nordic social market economies (SMEs); 2) physical capital investment and labor productivity growth-dominant liberal market economies (LMEs); and 3) continental SMEs whose moderately high human capital investments create decently high MFP growth, but whose low physical capital investments push down their labor productivity. The three worlds are broadly a result of the countries’ human capital formation policies and economic growth strategies — different policies add differently to the components of labor productivity (and ultimately to economic growth). We also identify two dominant paths to high labor productivity growth — the Nordic-type human capital investment path driven by high MFP growth, and the LME-type market-centered path powered by fixed capital investment growth. Overall, we tie the welfare production regimes (WPRs) literature to economic outcomes by showing that different human capital formation policies produce different economic outcomes.