Growth Of Megacities Research Articles

Contributions to a Theoretical Framework for Evaluating the Supply–Demand Matching of Medical Care Facilities in Mega-Cities: Incorporating Location, Scale, and Quality Factors

The rapid urbanization and population growth in mega-cities have led to a significant increase in the demand for medical services, highlighting the critical need for a more efficient alignment between the supply and demand of medical resources. Previous research often focuses on singular factors, such as accessibility or quantity, as the primary criteria for matching medical services, without comprehensively considering the location, scale, and quality factors of medical facilities. Addressing this gap, this study develops a theoretical framework that integrates these three critical factors to assess the supply–demand matching (SDM) of medical care facilities (MCFs) with population needs. This assessment is conducted using geospatial analysis techniques with ArcGIS and Python. The study includes an empirical analysis of 134 streets within the Chongqing municipality. The empirical results reveal significant disparities in the performance of integrated medical care facilities (MCFs), as well as variations across the dimensions of location, scale, and quality. Central districts like Yuzhong demonstrate high levels of accessibility, appropriate scale matching, and satisfactory service quality, whereas rapidly urbanizing peripheral districts such as Yubei suffer from significant mismatches in resource availability and service quality. The theoretical framework contributes to the field of medical care research, and the corresponding empirical findings provide valuable insights for urban planners and policymakers to optimize the allocation of medical resources, improve healthcare accessibility, and enhance service quality across different urban areas.

Urban expansion in highly populous East Asian megacities during 1990–2020: Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, and Shanghai

The world is experiencing unprecedented urbanization, particularly through the continuous growth of megacities, leading to significant urban land expansion. The spatial layout and growth patterns of urban areas play a critical role in determining cities' sustainable development. However, the optimal path for cities undergoing rapid urbanization remains uncertain. This study examines four megacities—Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, and Shanghai—and, from the perspective of urban land density, compares their patterns and processes of land expansion in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Findings reveal that the urban land area of China's megacities has expanded nearly fourfold over the past three decades. Meanwhile, Tokyo and Seoul have adopted a polycentric urban structure, becoming increasingly compact. In contrast, Beijing and Shanghai are only beginning to show signs of polycentric development. The study concludes that cities experiencing rapid growth should not impose excessive limitations on urban expansion. Polycentric and compact development has become a critical strategy for megacities. These insights offer valuable guidance for urban planning and sustainable development in both established and emerging megacities across East Asia.

Three facets of urban metabolism (case of Kazakhstan)

ABSTRACT The urbanisation growth causes problems related to the provision and consumption of resources, ecology, and social living conditions in cities. The purpose of the article is to study the dependence of metabolic factors and the level of urban conveniences on the urbanisation level and to justify the need to monitor these processes and improve the management of urban systems with the purpose to achieve sustainable development objectives. Three aspects of the problem of urban metabolism and sustainable development of cities are considered in the article. They are energy consumption by megacities, social aspects of metabolism and growth of megacities, problems of urban improvement. The increasing risks of negative impact of urban growth on the environment and living conditions has been proven. It is shown that the resettlement flow of village residents to cities, especially large ones, remains high despite the deterioration of the environmental situation in large cities and the lag in the urban infrastructure development from the population growth rate. The expediency to expand the context of the urban metabolism problem was noted, including the exchange of resources between urban and rural to reduce spatial inequality, and to increase the sustainability of urban and rural settlements.

Relationships between the Built Environment and Environmental Pollution, Issues of Megacities

Abstract The first part of the article discusses the natural environment of humans and its evolution over the past centuries. It examines the changes that have occurred in just the last 100 years and how they have impacted human habitats. It explores how architects and engineers shaping our settlements have influenced the environment, as well as how the model developed during economic growth affects and presents challenges to our society, particularly regarding the interconnection between climate change and the development of our cities. The second part of the writing addresses the issue of megacities, exploring where the almost endless growth of our metropolises has led, the problems it causes, the differences observed between the growth of megacities in developed and developing countries, the reasons behind it, and the additional difficulties it poses to their residents.

Political Foundations of Climate Action: Some Uncomfortable Truths


 This paper questions two fundamental political foundations for climate action: that there is but one common humanity and that global warming is the most critical and immediate threat to the survival of humankind. It further argues that the philosophical foundations of climate action lack depth and precision. While ‘climate justice’ appears center-stage to climate action, its conceptual basis remains weak because it has failed to integrate the enormous work done on justice, human rights, equality, governance, democracy and civil society since the mid 19th century. In fact, ‘climate justice’ only makes sense as a part of an overall framework of equality rather than something sui generis. On a political campaign level, this paper argues that too much attention has been paid to global conferences such as the series of COPs culminating in the most recent COP 28 in Dubai. Much less has been done on charting how the dialogue surrounding climate action today is affected by the emergence of global corporations, rapid urbanization, growth of middle-class consumption and the growth of megacities especially in Asia. The paper suggests that it would be more fruitful to focus on the local/community and regional levels to promote familiar technologies and conservation practices rather than on global conferences and their associated statements. 

NO2 Air Pollution Trends and Settlement Growth in Megacities

NO₂ Air Pollution Trends and Settlement Growth in Megacities

Short Review of Solar Energy Markets and Policies for Smart Cities Development

This paper presents a meticulous review of the solar energy markets and their instrumental role in driving the growth of smart cities. Drawing from extensive research, the review delves into urban metamorphoses spurred by the burgeoning growth of megacities, highlighting the significance of sociotechnical systems, evolved institutional practices, and energy material flows. The study identifies seven pivotal models for smart city energy governance, encompassing distributed energy resources, energy storage, microgrids, demand response, smart measuring systems, energy harvesting, and green technological innovations. A comparative analysis of urban developments in cities such as Singapore, Shanghai, and the greater Jakarta area reveals diverse trajectories in energy system evolution and business model shifts. The surging growth of solar energy, underpinned by technological breakthroughs, cost efficiencies, and robust governmental policies, is also explored. Although solar energy has been bolstered by a myriad of fiscal and regulatory incentives, it faces persistent challenges like technical impediments, financial barriers, and regulatory obstacles. The paper also introduces an innovative compound Real Options Approach (ROA) for appraising solar energy projects within smart cities, arguing its efficacy over the traditional Expected Net Present Value methods by recognizing managerial adaptability. In summation, this review accentuates the imperative of enduring policy support to amplify solar energy adoption worldwide, setting the stage for a sustainable smart city future.

Machine Learning for Simulation of Urban Heat Island Dynamics Based on Large-Scale Meteorological Conditions

This study considers the problem of approximating the temporal dynamics of the urban-rural temperature difference (ΔT) in Moscow megacity using machine learning (ML) models and predictors characterizing large-scale weather conditions. We compare several ML models, including random forests, gradient boosting, support vectors, and multi-layer perceptrons. These models, trained on a 21-year (2001–2021) dataset, successfully capture the diurnal, synoptic-scale, and seasonal variations of the observed ΔT based on predictors derived from rural weather observations or ERA5 reanalysis. Evaluation scores are further improved when using both sources of predictors simultaneously and involving additional features characterizing their temporal dynamics (tendencies and moving averages). Boosting models and support vectors demonstrate the best quality, with RMSE of 0.7 K and R2 > 0.8 on average over 21 years. For three selected summer and winter months, the best ML models forced only by reanalysis outperform the comprehensive hydrodynamic mesoscale model COSMO, supplied by an urban canopy scheme with detailed city-descriptive parameters and forced by the same reanalysis. However, for a longer period (1977–2023), the ML models are not able to fully reproduce the observed trend of ΔT increase, confirming that this trend is largely (by 60–70%) driven by megacity growth. Feature importance assessment indicates the atmospheric boundary layer height as the most important control factor for the ΔT and highlights the relevance of temperature tendencies as additional predictors.

Social Consequences of the Growth of Kazakhstan’s Megapolises and Recommendations for Overcoming

The purpose of the article was to study changes in living conditions in megapolises as they grow, identify negative social consequences and develop recommendations for overcoming them. Methods of retrospective analysis, logical and comparative analysis, generalizations, methods of descriptive statistics, index, graphic, methods for assessing the improvement of the housing stock of megacities, the demographic capacity of the city were used. The analysis of changes in living conditions in Kazakhstan’s megacities as they grow is carried out. The social consequences of the growth of megacities are revealed: a decrease in the standard of living of residents of the southern capital; an increase in demand for housing and its higher cost; a decrease in the level of well-being in Almaty; poor environmental conditions, an increase in atmospheric pollution in conditions of high population density; a higher level of mortality of the urban population compared to the rural population during the pandemic; an increase in destructive behavior of young people. Recommendations are given to overcome the negative social consequences of uncontrolled urbanization. The necessity of developing a Strategy for the development of Kazakhstani cities is substantiated. Measures are recommended: to solve the problem of affordable housing for young families, specialists, orphans; to create jobs, modernize transport, communal and social infrastructure, to foster patriotism and social responsibility.

Megacity Growth, City System and Urban Strategy

Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental StudiesOnline Ready Open AccessErratum: Megacity Growth, City System and Urban Strategyis erratum ofMegacity Growth, City System and Urban StrategyChengri DING, Xiao HE, and Yongming ZHUChengri DINGUrban Studies and Planning Program, School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USASchool of Public Administration, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, Henan Province, P. R. China, Xiao HESchool of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, No. 100, Kexue Avenue, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan Province, P. R. China, and Yongming ZHUSchool of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, No. 100, Kexue Avenue, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan Province, P. R. Chinahttps://doi.org/10.1142/S2345748122920014Cited by:0 PreviousNext AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail [Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies, Vol. 10, No. 1 (2022) 2250005, DOI: 10.1142/S2345748122500051] Remember to check out the Most Cited Articles! Be inspired by these Popular Science books!Includes all-time bestsellers and new titles FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsRelated articlesMegacity Growth, City System and Urban Strategy6 Jul 2022Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies Recommended Online Ready Metrics History Received 14 April 2023 Accepted 14 April 2023 Published: April 27, 2023 Information© Social Sciences Academic Press (China)This is an Open Access article published by World Scientific Publishing Company. It is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 (CC BY-NC) License which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited and is used for non-commercial purposes.PDF download

Millennials' changing mobility preferences: A telecommuting case in Istanbul

AbstractDaily mobility behaviors, especially in cities with high traffic density, are among the most fundamental drivers of quality of life. Obligatory commuting necessitates individuals sacrificing their time, money, and geographic freedom to ensure their mobility. The personal cost of fatigue, stress, and environmental cost of carbon emissions is likewise substantial. The COVID‐19 pandemic led to a widespread shift to telecommuting. The pandemic has permitted an unprecedented opportunity to study Millennials' attitudes towards commuting and telecommuting. A semi‐structured interview method was used with Millennial (now the largest percentage of the workforce) white‐collar (disproportionately able to do their work remotely) workers living in the megacity of Istanbul to understand how telecommuting has altered consumer commuting habits, values, preferences, and well‐being. The results of this study show that Millennial white‐collar workers in Istanbul see compulsory commuting as a waste of time, a stress factor, and an unwanted task. The shift towards telecommuting lowered the Millennials' tolerance for traffic and long commutes and reveals willingness for immobility at peak hours and appreciation of spatial independence as a lifestyle that increases quality of life. The need for understanding transport decisions has never been more pressing with the growth of megacities and the climate change crisis. This research has important implications for white‐collar employees and their employers, as well as academics and public policy makers, who seek to understand mobility preferences and lifestyles of different generations and the environmental implications in a dynamic environment.

Projections of urban built-up area expansion and urbanization sustainability in China's cities through 2030

In the context of socioeconomic initiatives to address world development sustainability such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), China's urbanization with increasing intensity and quickening pace has always been central to debates over the past few decades. Although the United Nations (UN) recommend to estimate and predict the local-scale urbanization sustainability by using the SDG indicator 11.3.1: “ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate (LCRPGR)”, there remains a lack of reliable projections and applicable assessments at the city level, especially for the future urban expansion. Until now, limited knowledge of the urbanization sustainability dynamics in the next decade has been the primary challenge to inform the realization of urban sustainable development goal under the framework of SDGs. To evaluate the geographic region- and population size-specific urbanization sustainability at the city level in mainland China between 2020 and 2030, an integrated downscaling approach of trend extrapolation and regression analysis was developed based on historical statistics of urban built-up area and subnational scenarios of population and gross domestic product (GDP) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs-consistent urban built-up area projections across different scales showed that the logistic regression had a better modeling performance than the panel data regression, while there was little difference between the linear and exponential extrapolation methods. Despite the geographical heterogeneity and size-related disparity, the scenario modeling results suggested that the average value of LCRPGR indicator in mainland China was expected to decline continuously, and would reach at the ideal state with a coordination between urban expansion and population growth through 2030. Specifically, the population growth stagnation of cities in Northeast China and the allometric urban expansion of cities in Western China should be the focus of strengthened regulations, and the urban growth of megacities would experience a steady and slower trend compared to their surrounding super-large cities and large cities. In summary, China's urbanization process might have headed toward a more sustainable and coordinated future under feasible SSPs scenarios. The local-scale forecasts will not only fill the data gap of SSPs-consistent urban land demand for all county- and prefecture-level cities in mainland China, but can also provide a reference for forecasting and assessment of urbanization sustainability to meet the SDGs in urban areas such as indicator 11.3.1.

Public transport for smart cities: Recent innovations and future challenges

The idea of a smart city is one that utilises Internet-of-Things (IoT) technologies and data analytics to optimise the efficiency of city operations and services, so as to provide a high quality of life for its citizens. Due to reduced public funding, many public transport systems are already facing challenges to maintain their services. For a smart city, the goal of public transport is not simply the movement of people, but the provision and enhancement of mobility for living. This will be particularly challenging due to changes in habitation trends and work patterns. For example, the growth of mega-cities has led to extreme traffic congestion in city centres and urban sprawl on their outskirts. In order to provide sufficient coverage and frequency of service, an integrated co-ordinated multi-modal public transport system is needed, leading to substantial increase in operational complexity. Environmental concerns and the recent pandemic may also change work and commuting patterns in the future, with more people working from home and companies adopting flexible work shifts. For smart cities, public transport must offer ubiquitous access, real-time response to demand, convenience and quality service, and energy-efficient operations. This paper will discuss the challenges in network design, operations planning, scheduling and management of smart public transport systems. A brief survey of recent research and innovations will also be presented.

Impact of global and local urbanization and social trends on the future of Kazakhstan

The article examines global and local trends in the urbanization process in Kazakhstan and the world and their impact on the future of the country. In 2007, a turning point in the urbanization of the entire world came — the milestone of 50 % was overcome, and by 2050 66 % is expected. It describes forecasts for an increase in women’s economic influence at the expense of third world countries, influence on the development of scientific and technological progress through the activities of special scientific zones or cities with a high density of technical companies, as well as the change of the global consumer base from Europe and America to the countries of Asia and Tropical Africa, the beginning of economic growth on the African continent. At the end of the XXI century, the three largest cities in the world will be in Tropical Africa — Lagos, Kinshasa, Dar es Salaam. It provides statistics on the development of urbanization in Kazakhstan, approaching the indicators of population ageing, the dangers of too rapid growth of megacities without adequate medical and educational provision. The article concerns state measures to prevent the formation of “marginal rings”, due to the growth of protest potential in the event of a social crisis, as well as the desire to reduce the outflow of population from rural areas. It reveals the prospects for the formation of agglomerations in Kazakhstan and the similarity of local trends in Kazakhstan and Russia in terms of population reduction in small and medium-sized cities and the growth in the number of large cities and megacities. Analysis of the studied material is provided.

Nature-Based One Health Approaches to Urban Agriculture Can Deliver Food and Nutrition Security.

The increasing global human population is projected to reach 9.7 billion people by 2050. This population growth is currently linked to the trends of world-wide urbanization, growth of megacities and shifting dietary patterns. While humankind faces the daunting challenge of feeding and providing healthy lives for its teeming populations, urban agriculture holds promise for improving the quality of life in cities. Fortunately, policymakers and planners are accepting the need to support peri-urban farmers to increase the resilience of food systems while efficiently managing already strained natural resources. We argue that for urban agriculture to significantly increase food yields, it is crucial to adopt a One Health approach to agriculture and environmental stewardship. Here, we propose six nature-based and climate-smart approaches to accelerate the transition toward more sustainable food systems. These approaches include reducing the reliance on synthetic agricultural inputs, increasing biodiversity through producing locally adapted crops and livestock breeds, using probiotics and postbiotics, and adopting portable digital decision-support systems. Such radical approaches to transforming food production will require cross-sectoral stakeholder engagement at international, national, and community levels to protect biodiversity and the environment whilst ensuring sustainable and nutritious diets that are culturally acceptable, accessible, and affordable for all.

Megacity Growth, City System and Urban Strategy

This paper analyzes the development pattern of 35 megacities from 1980 to 2020 and examines the impact of megacity’s growth on the city system. We use primacy, urban concentration, Zipf’s coefficient, and entropy to characterize the city system in a country with a megacity. Our analysis finds the following: (1) The growth rates of megacities are faster than the totals of the national population and national urban population in general; (2) the growth of megacities makes the city system diverge; (3) the development of megacities tends to be companied by the shrinking of small cities; and (4) emerging megacities has substantial impacts on urbanization strategy, urban planning, and policy.

GRASSROOTS SOLIDARITY IN REVITALISING RURAL ECONOMY IN ASIA, DRAWING LESSONS FROM THREE CASE STUDIES IN INDIA, INDONESIA AND CHINA

As Asia is experiencing rapid economic development, it is also impacted by both positive and negative aspects. Rapid urbanisation and the growth of mega cities in Asia is impacting thequality of life of the poor in these cities as well as impacting negatively the rural areas and abandoned farming land. However within Asia are grassroots community experiences whichare revitalising the rural economy through community organising, women empowerment and creative interventions through sustainable business models and good governance principles.Three case studies highlighted from India, Indonesia and China to illustrate this and draw lessons from transforming our economic priorities toward social solidarity economy.

Intra-urban inequalities during rapid development: space egalitarianism in Tokyo between 1955-1975

ABSTRACT This paper demonstrates empirically that Tokyo’s rapid post-war growth coincided with decreasing intra-urban inequalities in the special ward area, both in terms of private and public living standards. This phenomenon has not received much attention to date because Japan’s income inequalities were generally very low during this period. However, megacity growth of this kind is normally associated with growing segregation. This paper develops the narrative of ‘spatial egalitarianism’. It attributes low intra-urban inequalities to Tokyo’s homogenous urban form, equal economic structure of its neighbourhoods, and a redistributive intermediate layer of government that took a hands-off approach to urban planning. The implications are of relevance to today’s developing megacities in Asia and beyond.

Effectiveness of the cluster approach for sustainable development of small historical towns and settlements of the Republic of Tatarstan

One of the key issues of modern architecture and urban development is the decline of urban life in small towns and settlements, which are experiencing the negative consequences of the new socioeconomic reality. The urbanization process, characterized by rising large cities and mega-cities is provided by an increasing influx of migration from small historical cities and settlements. However, small urban settlements, preserving features of historical architecture, natural attraction and provincial coziness are important factors in restraining the uncontrolled growth of mega-cities and as a condition for the preservation of local culture and traditions of sustainable ecological balance of the regional settlement system. Obviously, the issue of integrated development of small historical settlements is coming to the fore. To solve this problem the authors propose a cluster approach that effectively develops the architectural environment of such cities and creates attractive living and tourism environments. The purpose of the research is to develop a method of the cluster approach for sustainable development of small historical towns and settlements, aimed at a comprehensive transformation of their architectural environment while preserving of valuable historical, cultural and architectural heritage. The limitation of the research is the Republic of Tatarstan.

Spatio-temporal dynamics in seismic exposure of Asian megacities: past, present and future

The estimation of urban growth in megacities is a critical and intricate task for researchers and decision-makers owing to the complexity of these urban systems. Currently, the majority of megacities are located in Asia which is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world. The high concentrations of people, infrastructure and assets in megacities create high loss potentials for natural hazards; therefore, the forecasting of exposure metrics such as built-up area is crucial for disaster risk assessment. This study aims to identify and project the dynamics of built-up area at risk using a spatio-temporal approach considering seismic hazard in three Asian megacities, namely Jakarta, Metro Manila and Istanbul. First, Landsat Thematic Mapper images were processed to obtain the built-up areas of 1995 and 2016 for Metro Manila, and of 1995 and 2018 for Jakarta and Istanbul. The SLEUTH urban growth model, a cellular automaton (CA)-based spatial model that simulates urban growth using historical geospatial data, was then employed to predict the urban growth of these megacities by 2030. Finally, seismic hazard maps obtained for 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance were overlaid with built-up area maps. For a seismic hazard of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, the total urban area subjected to Modified Mercalli intensities (MMI) VIII and IX has increased nearly 65% over 35 years in Metro Manila. For Jakarta and Istanbul, the total urban area at the MMI VIII level has increased nearly 79% and 54% over 35 years, respectively. For a seismic hazard of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, the total urban area subjected to MMI IX has increased nearly 75%, 65% and 49% over 35 years in Jakarta, Metro Manila and Istanbul, respectively. The results show that urban growth modelling can be utilized to assess the built-up area exposed to high risk as well as to plan urban growth considering natural hazards in megacities.