Growth Of Gross Regional Product Research Articles

Impact of investments in mining on economic growth of Krasnoyarsk Krai

Aim. To evaluate the impact of investments in mineral extraction on the economic growth of Krasnoyarsk Krai using the dynamics of data for 2004–2021.Objectives. To prepare initial data for modeling in comparable prices; to build statistical models with a time lag; to determine the multiplier and gas pedal coefficients of investment; to demonstrate the possibilities of applying the obtained dependencies.Methods. The authors used the method of economic and mathematical modeling, in particular the calculation of socio-economic indicators using mathematical statistics. The regression model was built using the initial data that meet the requirements of comparability and homogeneity, are relevant and statistically reliable.Results. Dependencies reflecting the investment multiplier effect, i.e. the increase in the gross regional product (GRP) and the volume of shipped products in response to the increase in investment in mining were obtained. Dependencies reflecting the investment gas pedal effect are also obtained, showing how increased income affects the size of investment. The dependencies are applied to solve a number of practical problems.Conclusions. It has been established that investments in mining in Krasnoyarsk Krai have an impact on the growth of GRP and the volume of shipped products. The return on investment has a temporary character. The strongest impact of investments in the current year have on the growth of GRP and shipped products for the next year. The multiplier coefficient is 2.72. Increased income affects the size of investments: the growth of income from mining stimulates the growth of induced investments in the following year with the multiplier coefficient, which is equal to 0.14. The comparison of actual values of investments in mineral resources extraction and volume of shipped products with the target values laid down in the Strategy of socioeconomic development of the region until 2030 has been carried out. The target values, according to the Strategy, are determined with the help of the obtained dependencies. It was established that the actual volume of investments is sufficient to ensure the GRP growth in accordance with the Strategy at the first stage; to ensure growth at the second stage it is necessary to increase investments by 12–15 % annually; to ensure growth at the third stage it is necessary to increase investments by 9–13 % annually from the current state. In order to ensure the values of indicators on the volume of production provided for in the Strategy, it is necessary to increase output by 4–6 % annually compared to 2021.

The impact of economic complexity and industry specialization on the gross regional product of Russian regions

The economic complexity index defines the basis of the modern theory of economic complexity and reflects the level of knowledge embedded in the production structure of the economy. This study examines the direct relationship between the economic complexity index and gross regional product (GRP) while taking into account other factors of the GRP production function in its generalized representation. As a result, we can isolate the impact of the economic complexity index from other phenomena. The non-linear nature of the relationship between economic complexity and GRP is revealed, and the direct relationship is manifested only at sufficiently high values of economic complexity, exceeding a certain threshold, which is found endogenously using econometric methods. In addition, the paper studies the relationship between economic complexity and indices of sectoral specialization. We found that there is a direct relationship between economic complexity and the extractive industry index and no relationship with the level of development of manufacturing industry. We obtained a clarification of the generalized production function of GRP, in which the threshold effect of the influence of economic complexity manifested itself as a factor of nonlinear dependence describing the elasticity of labor: a high level of economic complexity provides greater labor productivity. Overall, the results of the study of the dependence of GRP on economic complexity lead to the conclusion that increasing economic complexity can be an effective way to stimulate economic growth and development, but only starting from a certain threshold level. This suggests that an economy must reach a minimum level of diversity and complexity in its industrial activities before it can experience the productivity gains necessary for substantial GRP growth.

Transnational supply chains and their role in creating added value of the region: The Republic of Tatarstan case

Subject. The article addresses the high level of dependence of regional economic systems on imports of goods and services. Objectives. The focus is on the analysis of the impact of structural transformations in the economy on the growth of gross regional product, assessment of prospects for the formation of added value in the sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. Methods. The study draws on methods of simulation and econometric modeling. Results. Under the decline in imports by the most dependent economic activity, the gross decline in value added in the Republic of Tatarstan may amount to 14,9%. Conclusions. The results of the simulation underpin the need to develop operational strategic decisions that ensure the implementation of import substitution and technological sovereignty policies.

Структурно-динамическая модель транспортных эффектов экономического роста (на примере Ростовской области)

The removal of infrastructural restrictions on economic growth for regions and economic sectors is a priority for Russia. The relevance of the problem of transport effects assessment at the regional level is increasing due to the high depreciation of the existing infrastructure as well as the necessity of creating new facilities that can become a determining factor for economic dynamics acceleration. The paper is devoted to methodology development for the impact assessment of transport infrastructure on the economic development of territories, model tools development for effects’ assessment and their testing experimentally in the case of Rostov region, whose economic growth rate showed an obvious slowdown in recent years. The Rostov region’s model made it possible to obtain a series of probabilistic assessments of scenarios for social and economic development, the outcome of which depends on the implementation of investment activity scenarios and forecasts, dynamics of passenger and cargo flows, and provision of the territory with road and rail infrastructure. Estimations showed that an increase in the index of investments in fixed assets and the share of investments in the “transport” sector in the total volume of investments in fixed assets, accompanied by road quality improvement, stimulates growth of gross regional product and turnover of road transport. At the same time the freight turnover of rail transport has a positive relationship only with the investment index. The significant contribution to the economic growth of Rostov region in 2000–2020 years was connected with the long-term investment multiplier that formed the structure of traffic flows in the value chain. Quantitative estimates of the effects of investments intransport infrastructure can be taken into account in development programs of Rostov region to justify strategic goals and specific objectives of regional development.

Innovative Development of Kazakhstan’s Raw Material (Oil and Gas) Regions: Multifactorial Model for Empirical Analysis

The following paper reveals the applied aspects of multi-factor analysis allowing identifying patterns of innovative development of Kazakhstan’s raw material (oil and gas) regions in connection with modernization transformations. Initial signs of indicators for the period between 2008 and 2020 are currently under investigation using factor analysis. All data have been analyzed with IBM SPSS 23. In considerable detail, authors describe the methodology of this study and provide the results of statistical analysis. The analysis has revealed factors determining implementation of modernization transformations and taking effect on innovative development of Kazakhstan’s raw material regions, which are as follows: Regional Economic Development and Agglomeration Effects, Market Potential and Infrastructure, Structural Factor of Innovative Development, Human Factor of Innovative Development, and Investment Factor of Innovative Development. It is concluded that stimulation of innovation activity can be based on the following public policy measures: increasing investment in fixed assets; growth of gross regional product and product and process innovation costs; regional development of information and communication technologies; expansion of lifelong learning programs; poverty reduction; increase in the share of R&D employees; development of small businesses; increasing investment in education and in the number of technical and STEM students. The obtained results also allowed us to conclude about the completeness of identified factors of innovative development of Kazakhstan’s raw material (oil and gas) regions and the need for further research in the context of studying the stated issue.

THE INFLUENCE OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT VOLUMES ON GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT GROWTH IN THE REGIONS OF UKRAINE

The article examines the influence of the dynamics of capital investment growth on the growth of gross regional product in the regions of Ukraine. To do this, an analysis of the relationship between capital investment and gross regional product (GRP) using a regression function. Based on regression analysis, the values of investment multipliers and accelerators were calculated, which showed a high closeness of the interdependence between the volume of gross regional product and fixed capital investment. The return on capital investment in the economy of the regions with the growth of gross regional product is also determined, the reverse effect of investment growth together with the growth of gross regional product. In the constructed models of multipliers and accelerators of regions rather considerable sums of the remains which have led to necessity of introduction in construction of models in addition of such important factor of production as work are revealed. Construction of a two-factor production function with factors of capital investment and labor (expressed in wages) made it possible to determine the productivity of production resources of regions and indicators of elasticity of the influence of these factors on the formation of gross regional product of regions. The study revealed a close relationship between capital investment and gross regional product, as evidenced by the values of the coefficients of determination and correlation. This makes it possible to determine the required level of investment in fixed capital at a given volume of gross regional product and is of practical interest in forecasting economic growth in the regions of the country.

СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ АНАЛІЗ СУЧАСНОГО СТАНУ І ПЕРСПЕКТИВ РОЗВИТКУ ЗАКАРПАТСЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТІ

Purpose. The study’s purpose is a socio-economic analysis of the Zakarpattia region’s current state of development to determine the factors that affect the current situation and priority areas for improving the territorial organization Zakarpattia region, which will ensure sustainable regional development. Design/methodology/approach. In the article, the authors used the literature review method to identify the state of research on socio-economic development of the regions of Ukraine and to justify the importance of separate consideration of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. As a result of the analysis of scientific literature sources on the issue of socio-economic development of the Carpathian region of Ukraine, it was revealed that empirical studies of statistical data are insufficiently presented. Based on the comparative method, system analysis, and synthesis, the leading statistical indicators of the Zakarpattia region are studied: gross regional product (GRP), inflation, the economic activity of the population, unemployment, level of consumer prices, capital investments, foreign economic activity, household expenditures, level of wages and incomes of the people for 2007–2019, the dynamics of which reflects two crisis periods: 2008 and 2014–2015. Economic development dynamics in conditions of political instability and rapid changes in the external environment show positive macroeconomic changes reflected in GDP growth, wage growth, increasing exports, and the excess of exports over imports. Findings. The hypothesis that the focus of achieving the most efficient use of the region’s potential and its balanced development is possible only based on coordination of economic, social, and environmental interests, both at the regional and national levels. In particular, the study of GRP of the Zakarpattia region during 2007–2019 shows a stable growth of the area's nominal GRP. However, the real GRP at the same time, although fluctuating abruptly and in general, remains virtually unchanged. A study of the share of the Zakarpattia region’s economically active population in the structure of the economically active population of Ukraine allows us to conclude that it has changed unevenly and has tended to decrease. The border location of the Zakarpattia region facilitated emigration. In 2020, the share of the economically active population was declining, and unemployment is rising due to the loss of many people of their jobs due to the pandemic, which directly impacts reducing real and nominal GRP. Today’s economic recovery is taking place without significant changes in domestic enterprises’ quantitative structure by industry and is not accompanied by an increase in foreign investment. Practical implications. The results of this research are of interest to scientists and students of educational institutions, employees of research institutions that study the development trends of the regions of Ukraine. Besides, the results can help employees of public authorities of the Zakarpattia region shape the area’s development strategy. Originality/value. This study highlights the strengthening of globalization processes at the present stage of development of our state puts before its regions the main requirement – to maintain and streng then the positive growth of vital socio-economic indicators through the introduction of administrative, legal, tax, financial and other measures in the interests of the population and the state as a whole. The main factors influencing the socio-economic development of the Zakarpattia region are identified. Thus, based on the analysis, we can conclude that the Zakarpattia region’s socio-economic development will depend on the dynamics of production and consumption and improve the results of foreign economic activity. Priority areas for improving the Zakarpattia region’s territorial organization, which will ensure regional development sustainability, have been identified. The unique geopolitical location of Zakarpattia region and its agricultural orientation and tourism are decisive factors in overcoming crises and reviving its socio-economic development.

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO THE ASSESSMENT OF THE TAX POTENTIAL OF THE REGIONS OF UKRAINE

The article considers the essence and main properties of the tax potential of the region. The structure of tax potential, including three main components – realized, unrealized and forecasted ones – is studied. It is proved that the main sources of tax potential formation are potential tax revenues, opportunities of taxpayers, tax base resources and rates. 
 The results of an analysis of tax revenues structure in Consolidated Budget of Ukraine for 2013–2019 have shown that the actual tax revenues, forming the realized component of the tax potential, occupy the largest share among all types of budget revenues. The main budget-forming taxes in Ukraine are personal income tax, value added tax, corporate income tax, and excise tax. 
 The characteristics of the existing methods of assessing the tax potential in the region, their advantages and disadvantages are given. To assess the tax potential of the regions in Ukraine, the method using the index of tax potential based on gross regional product has been applied. The analysis of the tax potential index has allowed to systematize the regions of Ukraine into groups according to the indicator of tax capacity, to objectively assess the real income opportunities of each region in the country and to prove that the factors of influence on increasing tax potential should be the growth of gross regional product and income. It is proved that the assessment of tax potential is an important step in the system of tax planning and forecasting, which is based on information about the level of potential income. Based on the results of the assessment of the tax potential of the regions, it is advisable to develop measures aimed at expanding and improving the structure of the tax base, which may be prospects for further development in this area.

ФАКТОРНИЙ АНАЛІЗ ІННОВАЦІЙНО-ІНВЕСТИЦІЙНОГО ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ РОЗВИТКУ РЕГІОНУ

The article reveals the peculiarities of the formation of a group of factors of innovation and investment development of the Volyn region. In order to assess the impact of indicators, the equations of linear multifactorial dependence and correlation trend lines of two-factor dependences are constructed. The main directions of development of the region in the context of increasing the use of innovation and investment support are outlined. It is determined that one of the determining factors for innovative growth of gross regional product is the number of employees involved in the implementation of research and development, which have a scientific degree, and investment – the amount of capital investment. The analysis of the structure of expenses for the implementation of research and development and sources of funding for innovation of industrial enterprises.

Modeling heterogeneous dynamic interactions among energy investment, SO2 emissions and economic performance in regional China.

Massive investments in energy industry may either promote or mitigate the air pollution which is likely to influence the economic performance. In light of this, the current work is an empirical examination of heterogeneous dynamic causal interactions among energy investment, sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions and economic growth in regional China. A modified STIRPAT model is developed to introduce energy investment as a determinant of technology. Based on a modified model, a simultaneous equations system has been established to examine the three-way causal interactions among the variables of interest. As a first step, an error-correction-based second generation Westerlund (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69: 0305-9049, (2007). cointegration has been employed and found the long-run relationship. The simultaneous equations have been estimated by employing second generation dynamic common correlated effects mean group estimator (DCCEMGE) for 30 Chinese provinces and cities from 2001 to 2017. The empirical analysis has revealed that the energy investment induces emissions promotion effect while economic growth introduces emissions curtailment effect. However, the emissions curtailment effect remained slightly stronger than emissions promotion effect both at country and regional levels. Further, the energy investment growth uncovered economic performance enhancement effect. Furthermore, the SO2 emissions growth induced economic performance deterioration effect. In this regard, the economic performance deterioration effect exceeded the economic performance enhancement effect. Besides, there is a bidirectional causality operative between SO2 emissions and gross regional product (GRP) growth for the country as well as regional samples. On the contrary, a positive bilateral causal relationship between energy investment and GRP growth is found for the country as well as regional samples. Similarly, it has been found that there exists a positive bilateral causal association between SO2 emissions and energy investment. Graphical abstract.

The Coastal Microdistricts of the Baltic Region: the Spatial Aspects of Development

Active interactions between the countries, regions, economic entities, non-profits, and inhabitants of the Baltic Sea territories contributed to the emergence and development of a transnational socioeconomic region. The Baltic macroregion is one of the most developed among international regions that appeared as a result of regionalization, which is strengthened by globalization. At the same time, its creation is a consequence of coastalization, which affects settlement patterns and the spatial organization of the economy. In academic literature, this factor is primarily seen as a general tendency; however, there are significant geographical differences. The impact of the coastalization on the Baltic region has not been studied sufficiently. Based on available statistics, this article analyses differences in the levels and rates of settlement and economy in the coastal zone and the rest of the Baltic region. The economic, statistical and cartographical methods were applied. The indicators of the study objects condition include population density and growth rate, gross regional product (GRP) per capita, and GRP growth rate. The study covers the period from 2005 to 2016. The obtained results have allowed identifying the features of ‘coastalization’ at the microlevel by country, showing that this factor is less significant in Russia, Germany, and Poland than in the other countries of the region. Thus, the study identifies microregions with a varying effect of the ‘maritime’ factor on their development. These patterns can be used in developing national strategic and spatial planning documents and in international spatial planning efforts in the Baltic region.

Региональная инновационная система как инструмент опережающего социально-экономического развития Дальнего Востока России

<span>Опережающий рост производства валового регионального продукта в Дальневосточном макрорегионе не приводит к ожидаемому улучшению социально-демографических показателей. Рост производства добавленной стоимости является результатом работы главным образом сырьевых отраслей, а не высокотехнологичных обрабатывающих. В динамике развития воспроизводственных секторов: инновационно-инвестиционного, потребительского, инфраструктурного и энергосырьевого наблюдается существенный дисбаланс в пользу последнего. Сырьевые отрасли являются основным реципиентом инвестиций, но не создают дополнительных рабочих мест. В результате применяемые меры проведения государственной социально-экономической политики не дают ожидаемого результата, исполнение правительственных планов по стабилизации и росту численности населения оказывается под угрозой срыва. В качестве метода решения проблемы предлагается переход к современному варианту государственной региональной политики на основе идей поляризованного развития</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceBefore"> </span><span>–</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceAfter"> </span><span>концепции региональной инновационной системы. Приведена оценка эффективности её практического применения в Дальневосточном регионе. Предлагаемые институциональные изменения позволят улучшить социально-экономическую ситуацию и начать переход к инновационному типу воспроизводства в макрорегионе.</span>

Revealing stylized empirical interactions among construction sector, urbanization, energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in China

Since the construction sector, interacting with urbanization and economic growth, boosts energy consumption and CO2 emissions, and so challenges environmental sustainability. This work systematically analyzes empirical interactions among construction sector, urbanization, energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in a modified version of ‘Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology’ model. An aggregate panel of China along with its three disaggregated regional panels is estimated through augmented mean group and dynamic common correlated effects mean group estimators. The core empirics are as follows. First, energy consumption, gross regional product (GRP), urbanization, construction sector, and CO2 emissions established a long-run equilibrium relationship. Second, energy consumption growth, GRP growth, urbanization, and construction sector growth exerted significant positive impacts on CO2 emissions labeled as; energy, growth, urbanization, and construction driven emissions push impacts, respectively. Third, urbanization revealed negative, neutral, and positive contributions to GRP growth for western zone, intermediate zone, and eastern zone termed as; urbanization-driven growth deceleration, neutrality, and acceleration impacts, respectively. Likewise, GRP growth positively influenced urbanization. Fourth, energy consumption growth and construction sector growth exhibited significant positive impacts on GRP growth characterized as; energy and construction driven growth acceleration impacts, respectively. Also, GRP growth imparted a significant positive influence on energy consumption growth and construction sector growth. Fifth, CO2 emissions growth induced a significant negative influence in GRP growth entitled as, emissions-driven growth deceleration impact. Sixth, construction sector growth imparted a significant positive contribution to urbanization named as construction-driven urban migration impact. Whereas, urbanization revealed positive contribution to construction sector growth called as urbanization-driven construction expansion impact. Seventh, urbanization and construction sector growth presented significant positive contributions to energy consumption growth, namely, urbanization and construction abundance driven energy utilization impacts, respectively. Finally, construction sector-augmented Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is found valid. Based on empirics, policy relevance is proposed.

Dynamic simulation of the atmospheric environment improved by a focus on clean energy utilization of resource-based cities in China

Abstract Industrial structures in China's resource-based cities are unlikely to materially change in the short term, and the large quantities of air pollutants emitted by residents' energy consumption cause serious air pollution. It is therefore urgently required to frame policies that can be adopted to realize the sustainable development of a social economy under the constraint of atmospheric environment in China's resource-based cities. In this paper, we develop a dynamic optimization model by using input–output analysis with gross regional product (GRP) maximization as the objective function. This model contains three submodels: the socioeconomic submodel, atmo-environmental control submodel, and energy submodel. The model is applied to Tangshan City, a typical resource-based industrial city, to conduct a dynamic simulation with 13 terms from 2013 to 2025 and based on the data in 2012. The goal for the model operation is to realize the optimal development of a social economy under the restrain of certain emission levels of air pollutants. This goal is achieved by introducing a comprehensive policy that includes a residential clean energy promotion policy and an industry emission reduction policy, and industrial restructuring also plays a role by industrial subsidies. The simulation results demonstrate that sulfur dioxide ( S O 2 ) and nitrogen oxides ( N O x ) can be reduced by 53% and 45%, respectively, in Tangshan City in 2025 compared with their values in 2012 with an annual GRP growth rate of 6.2%. The total output of the clean energy in the simulation period is 41.4 million tons of standard coal. The goal of improving the atmospheric environment and sustainable development of social economies in resource-based cities can be achieved by coordinating the relationship among economic development, atmospheric environmental protection, and energy consumption through a dynamic optimization model with a comprehensive policy and industrial restructuring.

Efficient Location of Distribution Centres and Warehouses in the Territory of a Region

The article is devoted to the creation of efficient regional logistic infrastructure that has currently a special relevance. The additional task of this problem is a warehouse network formation. The efficient location of warehouses is one of the priority objectives for cross-border regions as it allows them to benefit from membership in a global supply chain, promotes the creation of additional jobs and, finally, leads to the growth of Gross Regional Product (GRP). The authors offer an approach to determine the location of distribution centres and warehouses in the territory of the regions of the Russian Federation. This approach allows solving the problem of the efficient location of warehouse network in a region taking into account its key indicators of socioeconomic development. The implementation of the approach identified the indicators that have a significant impact on a choice of the location of warehouses of a region. Methodological framework of the conducted research includes the methods of ABC and cluster analyses. That provides the identification of the cities and municipal districts of a region, in the territory of which it is expedient to locate warehouses. The developed approach was tested on the example of the Volgograd region. The solution of the problem of warehouse network in this region belongs to the priority one, considering its geographical position and industrial capacity. The analysis of indicator values for the period of 2010–2014 by means of the methods of classical and modern ABC analysis as well as the two-stage cluster analysis allowed the territorial binding of the warehouse network in the Volgograd region. Further, the research showed that when splitting the cities and municipal districts of the region into clusters, the greatest influence is made by such indicators as investments into fixed capital, goods turnover of the motor transport and transportation of goods by the motor transport.

The Role of Universities in Economic Development of Russian Regions

This paper analyses the contribution of higher education institutions (HEI) in Russia to gross regional product (GRP) growth. We explore the relationship between higher education coverage and rates of economic growth based on longitudinal economic growth models which are pooled regression, fixed effects, and regression with simultaneous fixed and spatial effects. In addition to the influence of HEI on economic growth, the model specifications also allow an investigation of the relationship between the territory accessibility of higher education and GRP growth, and the significance of higher education in regions with different structures of GRP. The main policy outcome of the paper is that universities can be considered as fully-fledged economic agents which make positive contributions to GRP growth. The development of regional higher education systems would lead to a positive effect on regional economic development.

Gross Regional Product of Russian Regions in Last Years: Dynamic and Spatial Configuration

The relation between regional and macroeconomic growth in Russia for the period of 1990 — 2013 are considered in the paper. The purpose is to estimate this ratio depending on the phase (stage) of development. The hypothesis is that the increase in regional disparities within the post-Soviet period picked up by standard measures and noted in the literature, is not associated with the systemic removal of regional indicators from each other. The specific forms of convergence-divergence are typical for the Russian regional space and they have to be identified. The dynamics of regional space configuration in Russia is considered from a new perspective — as a mass distribution of the gross domestic product of regions by the value of growth rates. The estimation and forecast of the structural characteristics of the gross regional product (GRP) mass distribution are made on the basis of the “distribution dynamics†approach up to 2025. The average annual growth in 2025 is expected at around 104.5 %, while growth differentiation significantly increases. The phase of macroeconomic growth for the last 15 years is reflected in its regional components. The GRP growth in Russia in general, both before and after the crisis of 2009, forms a more dense distribution than in 2009. The general trend of the 2000th and subsequent years is characterized by a certain decline in per capita GRP differentiation in relation to the main regional space (74 regions). The results of this paper may be useful for regional regulation policy purposes. A set of the Russian regions in the years of 2009–2013, against to the dominant tendency, provides a dynamics, that can be compared to the number of countries with a developed market. There is an urgent need to create a special research project to study this phenomenon.

Innovative Potential of Russian Regions: Methodological Aspects of Analysis and Development Trends

Russia has traditionally led in the main directions of development of science and technology. That suggests a high level of innovation potential. In this area leading position has missed in recent decades. Russia needs innovative development of all sectors of the national economy to ensure the sustain+nable growth level and quality of life. Innovative component of the development of regional economic systems should be a priority in the state policy. That is written in many prognostic and planning documents of the Russian subjects. Strategic development of the regions in the long run is determined not only by the growth of gross regional product, but also by maximization release of innovative products, by the level of employment and information potential of the region and, consequently, by the level of formation of innovative capacity.

Структурные факторы региональной динамики: измерение и оценка

Институтом экономических исследований Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук, при поддержке Научного Совета по вопросам регионального развития при Президиуме РАН, издается научный журнал «Пространственная экономика».

How helpful are spatial effects in forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?

AbstractIn this paper, we make multi‐step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real gross regional product (GRP) for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed for. We find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects help substantially to improve the forecast performance compared to the benchmark models estimated for each of the provinces separately. It is also shown that the effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared forecast error is about 8% at the 1‐year horizon and exceeds 25% at the 13‐ and 14‐year horizons). Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.