Export Growth Research Articles

THE PAKISTAN FACTOR IN SOUTH ASIA AND CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS

This article discusses the multilateral relations between Pakistan and Central Asia. Pakistan's experience of unstable development is the result of our over-reliance on foreign aid and exogenous factors. To ensure a stable and sustainable trajectory of high growth, we focus on endogenous factors of growth such as domestic resource mobilisation, tax reforms, science, technology and innovation, stimulating export growth and we attract foreign direct investment. Remittances have provided significant support for our financial needs, but their true potential has not been realized. We will introduce reforms to increase remittances by offering incentives. Nevertheless, in order to achieve this long-term goal, we need to build a solid and self-sustaining platform using external funding sources in the medium term.

Exchange Rate and Non-Oil Exports in Nigeria (1986-2021)

This study ascertained the effect of exchange rate on non-oil exports in Nigeria covering the period 1986-2021. Data for the study were extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The method of data analysis used is the linear regression method with the application of the Error Correction Model (ECM). The major findings of the study reveal that there exists a negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and non-oil exports in Nigeria, there exists a negative relationship between exchange rate and non-oil exports in Nigeria and there is a unidirectional causality relationship between exchange rate volatility and non-oil exports in Nigeria. Hence, exchange rate volatility causes non-oil exports in Nigeria. it is therefore the recommendation of the study that the government of Nigeria should aggressively pursue revenue diversion policies. This will go a long way in driving non-oil exports and also strengthen our currency and monetary authorities should ensure exchange rate stability in order to stem inflationary tendencies in Nigeria which have adverse effects on the growth of non-oil exports.

Can Spatial Agglomeration Promote Exports? The Evidence from China’s Wood-Processing Industry

Wood processing products can be used as a substitute for some high carbon emission materials, thus contributing significantly to climate change mitigation. China has significant importance in guaranteeing a stable global supply of wood products. However, China has experienced a decline in wood product exports recently, which could affect the world’s progress toward sustainable development. This study focuses on the spatial agglomeration of China’s wood-processing industry and explores the potential of integrating spatial agglomeration to address the diminishing export growth. We found that the spatial agglomeration of China’s wood-processing industry generally increased rapidly between 1999 and 2004, but decreased after 2004. The centroid of China’s wood-processing is shifting from the northeastern region toward the eastern coastal areas. The industry is more concentrated in the north–south direction and slightly dispersed in the east–west direction. Most sub-sectors of China’s wood-processing industry operate at the primary agglomeration level, indicating significant potential for improvement and further development. The empirical results unveil the substantial positive influence of spatial agglomeration on exports within China’s wood-processing industry, indicating the prospects for enhancing exports through the deliberate exploitation of agglomeration effects. The results advocate the view that spatial agglomeration acts as an essential accelerator for export growth and firms’ international competitiveness. Therefore, spatial agglomeration can alleviate the export constraints of China’s wood-processing industry. The results also show that exports are hampered by increased enterprise productivity. The ‘productivity paradox’ phenomenon has also surfaced in low-tech industries, like the wood-processing industry, as a result of issues with transaction costs, the development path, and policy orientation. Therefore, we should strategically leverage the spatial agglomeration effect, especially in the western region, and guide the moderate competition of enterprises to enhance the competitiveness of low-tech enterprises. China’s wood-processing industry can provide advanced experience and lessons for other countries regarding industrial cluster allocation and sustainable development models.

The role of shipping and logistics MNCs in economic development: a case study of how Maersk contributed to Vietnam’s ascendence to an export oriented economy

This paper assesses the role shipping and logistics foreign direct investment (FDI) plays in developing country export performance, exemplified by the case of the large multinational corporation (MNC) Maersk’s investments in Vietnam. The paper aims to generate a deeper understanding of how the introduction of advanced shipping and logistics services by a foreign investor contributed to export growth. The paper is based on a longitudinal case study of Maersk in Vietnam employing more than 100 interviews from Maersk, Maersk’s clients, subcontractors, and industry experts conducted between 2003 and 2016, complemented and validated by primary commercial data from Maersk, and secondary industry- and market data. The paper finds that during that period, Maersk impacted Vietnam’s export performance through five mechanisms: 1. Building infrastructure; 2. Creating connectivity and market access; 3. Reducing transaction and logistics costs; 4. Bringing buyers and sellers together; and 5. Upgrading export capabilities. While transport and logistics MNCs’ role in building infrastructure and reducing trade costs is described in the literature, the paper provides novel insights into their role as intermediaries in trade that provide value chain access and transparency, reduce transaction costs for buyers and producers, and upgrade export capabilities. The paper suggests that Maersk’s contributions to Vietnam’s export growth from 2003 to 2016 in part can be attributed to its unique competitive advantages originating from its superior organization, technology, and capital intensity. The paper contributes to the literature by deepening it’s understanding of the mechanisms through which large shipping and logistics MNCs influence developing countries’ export-led industrialization; by proving novel insights into the role of Maersk in Vietnam’s development path; and by providing and validating an analytical framework for analyzing shipping and logistics MNCs’ role in export led development that may inspire future research,

MEASUREMENT OF TRANSPORTED GAS CONSUMPTION: ANALYSIS OF MEASUREMENT METHODS

One of the key aspects in the development of the economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan is the export of natural gas to foreign countries. The relevance of the issue of measuring consumption increases over time with the expansion of gasification operations in the country and the growth of gas exports to the international market. Therefore, there is a demand for the development of new projects for the improvement of the used metering systems in accordance with modern standards, their reconstruction with more efficient methods, and the discovery and application of new measuring devices and methods. During such reconstruction activities, the main focus is naturally on creating optimal and cost-effective information measurement systems. The measurement process is a precision-demanding operation, and various nuances affect the reliability of the result. Metrology is the scientific discipline that implements measurement processes. The key stage for its accuracy is the proper organization of the measurement device and methods in accordance with the characteristics of these devices. Additionally, the expertise of the personnel involved in the measurement process significantly influences the reliability of the measurement result. Failure to adhere to these processes negatively impacts the reliability of the result. In Azerbaijan, the widely used method of consumption measurement is the orifice metering method (ISO 5167-1), but this method has both advantages and disadvantages for large-diameter flow meters. These include a limited range of measured flow velocities, fouling and contamination of the diaphragm edge during operation, the complexity and high labor intensity of regular technical maintenance, high costs of spare parts, and the construction and installation of measuring devices. These problems lead to inaccuracies in gas consumption measurement, causing time and material losses during the process. Improving the accuracy of gas measurement in Azerbaijan can significantly increase financial gains. Therefore, alongside traditional methods, there is an interest in developing new methods for measuring volume flow with high accuracy and user convenience, as well as lower initial and operating costs. One of the promising areas for the development of modern flow measurement technology is the use of optoelectronics. Among them, the most significant interest lies in the use of Laser Doppler interferometry methods. These methods have been proven to be the most effective for studying physically dispersed environments (such as gas and liquid). The advantages of Laser Doppler anemometry, based on these methods, such as high accuracy and speed, a wide measurement range, resistance to noise, the possibility of simulated calibration, controllability of characteristics, and non-changeability according to the surrounding environment, make them highly favorable. The high accuracy of flow meters based on Laser Doppler anemometry allows them to be used both as working tools and as metrological support means for the verification of flow meters. Keywords: Gas consumption measurement, Measurement systems, Measurement methods, Orifice metering method, Laser Doppler.

Strategi Optimalisasi Perdagangan Ekspor Kopi Di Indonesia Melalui Situs Trademap

Export trade of coffee in Indonesia plays a crucial role in the country's economy; however, challenges and dynamics in the global market demand the development of an optimal strategy to enhance the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee products. This research aims to formulate an optimization strategy for coffee export trade by leveraging information provided by the Trademap website. The research method involves analyzing Indonesian coffee export data from the Trademap site, identifying global market trends, and evaluating relevant trade policies and regulations. The results of this analysis will form the basis for designing a strategy to increase market share and the export value of Indonesian coffee. The proposed strategy includes strengthening product branding, diversifying target export markets, improving the quality and innovation of products, and optimizing the supply chain to enhance logistic efficiency. Additionally, the integration of information technology and communication in trade management is incorporated to expedite information access and minimize business risks. The implementation of this strategy is expected to make a positive contribution to the growth of Indonesia's coffee exports, opening opportunities for access to new markets, and increasing the value-added of products. By tapping into the information potential of the Trademap site and developing adaptive strategies, Indonesia can effectively navigate the dynamics of the global market, strengthen its position as a leading coffee producer, and enhance the well-being of business actors in the coffee sector.

Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor Migas, Ekspor Non Migas, Dan Penanaman Modal Asing Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

This research uses literature study analysis to evaluate the influence of oil and gas exports, non-oil and gas exports and foreign investment on Indonesia's economic growth. The results show that dependence on the oil and gas sector has a negative impact on economic growth, while growth in non-oil and gas exports and foreign investment has a positive impact. Economic diversification through increasing non-oil and gas exports and appropriate foreign investment can reduce dependence on the oil and gas sector and increase Indonesia's economic resilience. However, keep in mind that the interaction between these variables is not always linear and can affect overall economic growth.

Dinamika Pasar Minyak Dan Gas Bumi: Implikasinya Terhadap Keseimbangan Ekonomi Global

This research uses literature study analysis to evaluate the influence of oil and gas exports, non-oil and gas exports and foreign investment on Indonesia's economic growth. The results show that dependence on the oil and gas sector has a negative impact on economic growth, while growth in non-oil and gas exports and foreign investment has a positive impact. Economic diversification through increasing non-oil and gas exports and appropriate foreign investment can reduce dependence on the oil and gas sector and increase Indonesia's economic resilience. However, keep in mind that the interaction between these variables is not always linear and can affect overall economic growth.

Industrial robots and export growth: a cross-country analysis

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the relationship between industrial robot applications and export growth using data from 54 major exporting countries from 2010 to 2018. We find that industrial robot applications have positive effects on exports by reducing export costs and upgrading product technology. This effect is stronger in economically advanced countries. Moreover, technological innovation and educational investment amplify the impact of industrial robots. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to optimize industrial robot integration to foster export.

Analisis Pertumbuhan Jumlah Kargo Terhadap Kegiatan Ekspor Impor Pasca Covid – 19 Pada Terminal Internasional PT. Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal Tbk.

The aim of this research is to determine the flow of growth in export and import activities after Covid-19 and to determine the influence of the Covid-19 pandemic on the export and import activities of PT. Indonesia Vehicle Terminal Tbk. This research is descriptive qualitative research, research data obtained through data collection. After that, the data was analyzed qualitatively and then explained descriptively. Based on the research results, it was found that the flow of export growth in vehicle groups experienced increases and decreases at different times for each cargo, including CBU cargo, heavy equipment, and spare parts. Meanwhile, the flow of import growth for the vehicle group experienced a decline from 2019-2020 and experienced an increase again in 2021, this was due to restrictions related to the spread of the Covid-19 virus.

Trends in export performance of wheat from India

Wheat is globally the leading source of carbohydrate in human food, with the content of about 71 per cent, apartfrom this, it also contains 13 per cent proteins which is very high as considered to cereals and hence is also a major sourceof proteins around the world. Globally, India is the second-largest producer of rice, wheat and other cereals. The hugedemand for cereals in the global market is creating an excellent environment for the export of Indian cereal products.Thepresent study aimed to analyze the growth and instability index of wheat export from India. The study depends onsecondary data which was collected from APEDA website for the year 2011-12 to 2022-23. The compound annual growthrate analysis and Cuddy Della Valle Instability Index was employed for analysis of growth rate and instability index ofwheat exported from India. The results revealed that the growth rate of quantity and value of export of wheat from Indiashowed negative growth of -0.87 per cent and positive growth of 3.44 per cent, respectively. The instability indices forexport of wheat from India were found positive in both quantity (98.67) and value (99.86) terms and in the range of above30 which inferred high instability.

Removing Trade Barriers Between China and India: A Counterfactual Analysis on Export Growth and Welfare

The two Asian giants, China and India, share a long history of political acrimony and simmering border disputes. This often disrupts their bilateral economic relationship along with the overall dynamics of the regional balance of power and the global multi-polarisation order. Under such a scenario, this study aims to measure the impact of a hypothetical removal of all trade barriers between China and India on the overall exports and welfare of 73 sample countries while preserving the geographical trade costs. Employing the structural gravity model under a general equilibrium setting, the counterfactual scenario reveals that India, followed by China, is the main beneficiary of full-scale integration in terms of trade growth and welfare. Indian consumers gain while producers tend to lose through a decrease in prices. Chinese welfare gains are shared among its producers and consumers with light asymmetry. Next, we simulate a unilateral removal of all trade barriers while preserving the effects of geography for exports from China to India. The results reveal that asymmetric trade liberalisation leads to smaller gains for both countries at the expense of certain groups and the aggregate national welfare. JEL Codes: D58, F02, F17, O57

THE REVALUATION POTENTIAL OF UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN THE CONTEXT OF MARTIAL LAW AND POST-WAR RECOVERY

The paper highlights the immediate and delayed impact of certain factors on the exchange rate dynamics in Ukraine. It is proved that exports of food products and raw materials for their production can significantly strengthen the national currency in the long run. Continuous growth in food exports helps to slow down exchange rate appreciation, which ultimately leads to a stronger national currency. Thus, a strategy of focusing on increasing food exports can play an important role in strengthening the Ukrainian currency in the long run, having a positive impact on exchange rate dynamics and contributing to overall economic stability. The study reveals the understanding of the complex relationship between war, food security, and economic stability. Furthermore, the analysis adds a new dimension to the debate on the strategic importance of the agricultural sector for foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange accumulation. Understanding the relationship between export volumes, world prices, and exchange rate fluctua tions can help to better predict and manage currency fluctuations and to determine the extent to which Ukraine’s revolving fund capacity can be built.

International friendship cities, spatial spillover effect and urban export growth: Evidence from China

AbstractUsing a spatial econometric model, this study investigates the impact of international friendship cities on urban exports in China at the city level. The results demonstrate a significant spatial spillover effect of international friendship cities on China's urban exports, benefiting not only the local area but also the neighbouring cities. Mechanism tests indicate that international friendship cities foster export growth in both local and adjacent cities by accumulating international social capital. Additionally, we identify a spatial spillover interval (within 700 km) and a siphonic interval (beyond 800 km) in the effect of international friendship cities on the urban exports of surrounding cities. This study sheds light on the role of international friendship cities in driving urban export growth in China.

The climate impacts and potential benefits of services export growth in developing countries

Promoting the services trade is considered an effective means of revitalizing the economy at a marginal environmental cost in the post-pandemic era. However, the impact of services trade growth and how to promote services development remain to be addressed. This study investigates the performance of the services trade for both developed and developing countries as well as the impact of their services trade growth on the Paris Agreement climate target and the possible synergy for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Moreover, policy recommendations are provided for developing countries to facilitate services trade growth. Input–output analysis, comparative advantage theory, and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) are used in this study. The results show that services trade accounted for 44.4 % of global trade-induced value added but only 14.7 % of CO2 emissions. Services trade growth would lead to 199.8 Mt and 311.2 Mt CO2 emissions under the ServGrow scenario and DoubDeve scenario, respectively, suggesting that vigorously promoting services exports growth of developing countries has limited carbon implications. Further simulation indicates that the global atmospheric temperature increase caused by services trade growth in both scenarios is within 0.05 °C. Notably, accelerating services exports growth in developing countries helps to mitigate the inequality between developed and developing countries. The findings of this study can inform policymakers regarding the formulation and implementation of policies for economic recovery, reducing inequality, addressing climate change, and contributing to the achievement of the SDGs.

Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: Perception of Bankers in Bangladesh

This study attempts to explore the determinants of non-performing loans in banking sector of Bangladesh based on the perception of bankers. To represent the bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans, bank profitability, lending rate, bank total assets, transparency in loan authorization, credit assessment, bank age, and corporate governance are considered. On the other hand, gross domestic product, inflation rate, unemployment rate, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and export growth are used to represent macroeconomic determinants. Bankers working in Dhaka city have been considered as the sample of this study. Opinions of 144 bankers regarding the selected determinants of non-performing loans have been collected through a structured questionnaire. Based on the collected data, descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, and regression analysis have been conducted. In the analysis, bank total assets, transparency in loan authorization, bank age, inflation rate, and unemployment rate have depicted a positive impact on non-performing loans where bank profitability, lending rate, credit assessment, corporate governance, gross domestic product, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and export growth have shown a negative impact. However, among these, significant impact has been identified only for bank total assets, bank age, corporate governance, gross domestic product, inflation rate, and foreign direct investment.

РЕСУРСНА БАЗА ФОРМУВАННЯ ЕКСПОРТНОГО ПОТЕНЦІАЛУ УКРАЇНИ: ВИКЛИКИ, ПОВʼЯЗАНІ З ВІЙНОЮ

The economic, social, and political consequences of the war on Ukraine’s export potential are analysed in the paper. Authors of the research offer recommendations for preserving and developing export opportunities during the post-war recovery period. The study highlights the impact of war on Ukraine’s resource base, which is essential for the growth of exports. The destruction of infrastructure has made it difficult to transport goods from production centers to international markets, thus limiting the volume of exports. The study identifies key resources that play a strategic role in the formation of Ukraine’s export potential. It also identifies ways to reduce the vulnerability of the country’s economy to external influences. It has been studied how different factors can work together to increase a country’s ability to export goods in the era of global economy. A balanced combination of these factors is crucial to make the most of the export potential. Failing to achieve this balance could result in an increase in the amount of untapped export potential. It is important to pay attention to certain factors when trying to develop a country, determine its potential place in the global market, and boost its export potential. The availability of resources is a key factor in determining the product-geographic focus of implementation. However, it is important to note that even if a country has a sufficient resource base, it does not guarantee sustainable economic development. Other factors such as political stability, trade policy, market access, and a favourable business environment also play an important role in a country’s economic growth and export potential. The text also discusses how the various stages of a full-scale war could affect Ukraine’s ability to export goods. Moreover, the study focuses on the problem of loss of human capital caused by the war. The war has led to the loss of skilled workers and specialists who could contribute to the growth of the export industry. The migration of skilled labor to other countries has also led to labor shortages in key industries, which further weakened Ukraine’s export potential. The article proves that the destruction of infrastructure, the loss of human capital, and the reduction of direct foreign investment in the complex contributed to the weakening of the export industry. Finally, the article argues that solving the above problems will be crucial for restoring Ukraine’s export potential.

Analysis of the impact of RCEP on the industrial and innovation chains of China's textile and clothing industry.

This research examines the impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the textile and apparel industry within its member nations. The study seeks to understand the implications of RCEP on trade dynamics, innovation chains, and industrial integration in the textile sector. The study uses both quantitative analysis of trade data and qualitative assessment of policy frameworks to analyze changes in textile trade and patterns among RCEP members through UN Comtrade data. Qualitative analysis is conducted to examine RCEP policies related to intellectual property protection, investment regulations, and innovation cooperation. The findings reveal a significant increase in textile trade volume among RCEP member countries following the agreement's implementation. China emerges as a key player, experiencing substantial growth in textile exports to RCEP nations, particularly driven by tariff reduction initiatives. RCEP provisions stimulate demand for innovation within the textile industry, fostering collaborative efforts in scientific research and development.

ОЦЕНКА ПЕРСПЕКТИВ УВЕЛИЧЕНИЯ ВЫСОКОТЕХНОЛОГИЧНОГО ЭКСПОРТА МАЛОГО ИННОВАЦИОННОГО БИЗНЕСА В РЕГИОНАХ РОССИИ И РЕСПУБЛИКЕ БАШКОРТОСТАН В УСЛОВИЯХ САНКЦИЙ

Assessment of the prospects for increasing high-tech exports of small innovative businesses in the regions of Russia and the Republic of Bashkortostan under sanctions is a significant indicator of the economy. The emergence of additional market niches, the possibility of developing internal and external demand for small innovative business products, is an opportunity for the development of the Russian economy. Western sanctions have both a deterrent and a stimulating effect on small innovative businesses. New market niches of non-Western countries of the world are being revealed. In these conditions, the development of high–tech exports to non-Western countries of innovative small businesses (hereinafter referred to as IMBS) from the regions of Russia becomes an urgent research goal. In pursuit of this goal, the method of comparative analysis and comparison of various groups of regions of Russia was used. This study has determined the relevance of the directions of development of high-tech exports of the IMB of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Goal. Assessment of the prospects for increasing high-tech exports of IMBS in the regions of Russia under the sanctions of Western countries. The objectives of the study are: – analysis of external challenges and conditions for the effective increase of high–tech exports of IMB in the regions of Russia; - development of directions and measures for the development of IMB in the regions of Russia and the Republic of Bashkortostan. Methodology. The assessment of the prospects for increasing high-tech exports of the IMB made it possible to formulate approaches to the development of appropriate state policy in the regions of Russia. Results. Based on the assessment of the prospects for increasing high-tech exports, the presented and analyzed data, the state policy of catch-up development in supporting the export of the IMB of the Republic of Bashkortostan is justified. Conclusions. The scientific and technological state policy of Russia should be transformed into a catch-up type of development of high-tech exports of IMB, based on domestic research and development. Sustainable and dynamic growth of high-tech exports of IMBS is possible with the creation of innovation belts around scientific institutions and universities. Which implement their own highly original intellectual property objects (hereinafter referred to as IPOs) in intangible assets (hereinafter referred to as IA) and know-how.

РОЛЬ ЭКСТЕНСИВНОЙ И ИНТЕНСИВНОЙ СОСТАВЛЯЮЩЕЙ В РАЗВИТИИ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОГО ЭКСПОРТА РОССИИ

The paper presents an empirical review of the results on the diversification of agri-food exports based on two methodologies. First of all, the analysis is based on an assessment of the extensive (increasing exports by including new goods in its structure, that is, the formation of a wider range of goods) and intensive (increasing the number of each product exported) components of agri-food exports in the Russian Federation. Then based on an econometric model in which the extensive and intensive components act as independent variables, their impact on the economic growth of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is assessed. The results of the study demonstrate the weak influence of the extensive component on the growth of agri-food exports (about 20% of growth), while at the same time in a number of industries its contribution is assessed as significant (exceeding the values for the leading countries in terms of export growth rates).