Growth Of CO2 Emissions Research Articles

Impacts of oil price uncertainty on energy efficiency, economy, and environment of Malaysia: stochastic approach and CGE model

Uncertainty in global oil prices significantly influences the economic performance of Malaysia as a net oil–exporting country. This study uses an integrated approach, in which a stochastic method is integrated with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the impacts of likely change in global oil price on energy efficiency and, consequently, on key economic, energy, and environmental variables of Malaysia. The stochastic method, which is related to the Monte Carlo assessment, is based on historical data of global oil price, during 1980–2017, provides probable changes in oil price and their probability of occurrence. Simulation results show that likely changes in global oil price, with a 90% probability, change energy efficiency in Malaysia between − 0.08 and + 0.06% within which the economic performance of Malaysia changes between − 5.22 and 3.00% and household welfare changes between − 4.81 and 2.92%. Furthermore, the energy demand changes between 1.51 and − 2.93% and CO2 emission changes between 4.21 and − 2.03%. However, the emission of other air pollutants changes between − 2.45 and 2.21%. These economic and environmental changes generate a double dividend effect on the Malaysian economy. The value of the rebound effect also changes between 103.21 and 95.79%. Therefore, the paper highlights a strong interconnection among oil price fluctuation, energy efficiency, energy consumption, CO2 emission, and economic growth and thus the necessity for an integrated policymaking method.

Assessing the effects of labor market dynamics on CO2 emissions in global value chains

International production fragmentation has led to substantial changes in labor market, such as job creation/job loss, changing labor market structure and labor productivity. Such changes are perceived to affect CO2 emissions of those economies that participate in different parts of global value chains. This paper develops an accounting framework relating CO2 emissions to labor market shaped by global value chains. It analyses the influential factors driving CO2 emissions, and documents several pervasive empirical patterns. This is based on the recent environmental accounts developed by the European Commission and the World Input-Output Database over 2000–2014. The results show that the growth of CO2 emissions is primarily reduced by intensity effect, followed by labor market structural change due to participation in value chains, while it is driven by labor productivity effect and job creation. In particular, the foreign job creation effect is mostly emission-increasing, even in those economies with shrinking domestic employment. These results highlight the role of labor market and global value chains in climate policymaking.

Assessment and prediction of environmental sustainability: novel grey models comparative analysis of China vs. the USA.

Emission forecasting is vital for policy-making and emission reduction goals globally. This research aimed to perform an accurate model for forecasting and assessing CO2 emissions and the production of renewable electricity for the top two countries contributing to these emissions, the USA and China. In this study, we employed three novel advanced mathematical grey models: optimized discrete grey model (ODGM), nonhomogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM), and variable speed and adaptive structure grey model (VSSGM) to estimate the future trends of CO2 emissions and renewable electricity production. These breakthrough models added value in this field of research by reducing uncertainty surrounding ambiguity and numerical ranges and improving accuracy in assessments by using small samples and imperfect information. The findings showed that, by 2026, China's electricity production based on renewable sources would be higher than that of the USA. We find CO2 emissions in a downward trend, with more significant reductions in the USA than in China by the year 2026. The contributions of this study are the application of novel VSSGM and the use of synthetic relative growth rate modeling for predicting the overall growth of CO2 emissions and the production of renewable electricity in analyzed countries. The originality of this study lies in proposing a novel synthetic doubling time model to compute how long it will take, for China and the USA, to reduce their CO2 emissions and doubling their increase in renewable electricity production.

DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA'S ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STRATEGY: PRECONDITIONS AND FORECASTS

The article is devoted to the study of the development of China's alternative energy strategy. The article states that with the growth of the world's population and the continuous development of industry, the human need for energy is growing. It is a well-known fact that the growth of industrial production and CO2 emissions during production has caused climate change. Climate change threatens the survival of vulnerable species on earth, threatens ecosystems and biodiversity, and can threaten human survival. If the extreme weather that threatens human survival does not occur, the limitation of fossil resources will severely limit the future development of mankind. In particular, human activities since the Industrial Revolution have been a major cause of the current global warming, including emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases caused by human production and life, land use and urbanization. The article proves that the emergence of alternative energy sources gives positive results in leveling the impact of industrial development on the environment. It is a source of energy for sustainable development and plays a key and important role in global efforts to combat climate change. Its emergence has put more and more companies and industries in the spotlight worldwide. As the global energy market is politically biased, policymakers face increasingly difficult challenges to their countries' energy security. The question of how to integrate renewable energy sources and policies to improve their efficiency was explored, so that each of them can take full advantage of their own benefits to maximize benefits and make people's lives easier. With the growth of renewable energy, the influence of individuals, governments and international organizations, as well as the role played by local, national and intergovernmental policies, are becoming increasingly important. The key principles of China's alternative energy strategy were identified, how to facilitate the development of renewable energy in the right direction and integrate energy into industrial production were identified. It is proposed to further develop this strategy in accordance with the best world experience, taking into account the national interests of China.

The consequences of industrial restructuring, regional balanced development, and market-oriented reform for China's carbon dioxide emissions: A multi-tier meta-frontier DEA-based decomposition analysis

The Chinese government has taken measures to realize energy-savings and emission reductions, such as promoting innovations, adjusting the industrial structure, balancing regional development, and reforming markets. The aim of this paper is to assess the effects of these measures on China's CO2 emissions by using a newly proposed decomposition approach, which identified eight new factors related to the above realistic measures, i.e., energy saving and production technologies, industrial energy and production efficiencies, regional energy and production efficiencies, and pure energy and production efficiencies. The main findings indicate benefits from considerable technological progress in energy-saving and production during 2000–2016 period, and two technological factors contributed the most to emissions abatement and cumulatively reduced 5372.43 Mt and 1291.72 Mt CO2 emissions. The efforts of industrial restructuring promoted energy and production efficiency improvement, which further facilitated emission reduction. In contrast, the pure energy and production efficiency changes cumulatively led to 1080.26 Mt and 1135.85 Mt CO2 emissions growth during the whole sample period, suggesting that severe resource misallocation problems may exist in both the energy market and output market. Additionally, the Chinese government failed to narrow the technology gap between developed regions and underdeveloped regions, further restricting emission reduction.

Dynamic Modelling of Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission, and Economic Growth in SE Asian Countries

Southeast Asian region is fast growing in terms of economy with rapid population growth, high energy consumption, and pollution. Understanding these linkages are crucial to guidance of appropriate policy. This study aims to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption with economic growth and CO2 emissions of the four selected Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand between the years 1971–2017 using Johansen cointegration method combined with Granger causality model. The results found the evidence of cointegration in all countries implying a long-run relationship among energy consumption, economy and pollution exists. The causality main results show the evidence of unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, while the opposite direction was found in Philippines. The results of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand support “conservative hypothesis” suggesting that energy conservation policies could be adopted in these countries as it would not constrain growth of the economies. Whereas the results of Philippines appear to support “growth hypothesis” implying that energy is a key driver to stimulate economy. Limiting the use of energy could affect the economy. Instead, the policies, therefore, should focus on promoting other alternative energy source such as renewable energy in order to maintain sustainable growth.

Dynamic evolution analysis of the factors driving the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An input-output analysis.

In recent years, the global greenhouse effect caused by excessive energy-related carbon emissions has attracted more and more attention. In this paper, we studied the dynamic evolution of factors driving China's energy-related CO2 emissions growth from 2007 to 2015 by using energy consumption method and input-output analysis and used the IO-SDA model to decompose the energy carbon emissions. Within the research interval, the results showed that (1) on the energy supply-side, the high carbon energy represented by raw coal was still the main factor to promote the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions. However, the optimization of energy consumption structure is conducive to reducing emissions. Specifically, the high carbon energy represented by raw coal exhibited a downward trend in promoting the increment of energy-related CO2 emissions, while the clean energy represented by natural gas showed an upward trend in promoting the increment of CO2 emissions. It is worth noting that there is still a lot of room for optimization of China’s energy consumption structure to reduce emissions. (2) On the energy demand-side, the final demand effect is the main driving force of the growth of carbon emissions from fossil energy. Among them, the secondary industry plays a major role in the final demand effect. The "high carbonization" of the final product reflects the characteristics of China's high energy input in the process of industrialization. At the same time, since the carbon emission efficiency of the tertiary industry and the primary industry is better than that of the secondary industry, actively optimizing the industrial structure is conducive to slowing down the growth of carbon emission brought by the demand effect. (3) The input structure effect is the main restraining factor for the growth of energy carbon emissions, while the energy intensity effect has a slight driving effect on the growth of energy carbon emissions. The results show that China's "extensive" economic growth model has been effectively reversed, but the optimization of fossil energy utilization efficiency is still not obvious, and there is still a large space to curb carbon emissions by improving fossil energy utilization efficiency in the future.

Foreign demand, developing country exports, and CO2 emissions: Firm-level evidence from India

Over the past few decades, wealthy countries have relied increasingly on imports from developing countries, prompting concerns regarding the environmental effects of trade. Increased import demand in wealthy countries certainly increases export flows from developing countries, but emissions need not scale 1 for 1 with exports if domestic sales or emission intensity adjust endogenously to foreign demand. In this paper, we exploit detailed product-line information on production and emissions for Indian manufacturing firms to estimate how firms adjust their production decisions in response to demand shocks in trading partner markets. Using a shift-share instrument, we find that foreign demand growth increased growth in CO2 emissions at the firm level via output growth (scale effect), but that endogenous reductions in emission intensity mitigated roughly 40% of this effect. With output denominated in physical units, both effects are estimated net of price adjustments. The overall effect on CO2 emissions growth is positive, though statistically insignificant at conventional levels. We further document that the scale effect owes to increased growth in both export sales and domestic sales, and that firm-product emission intensity fell when expressed per physical unit of output. The latter result indicates that the firm-level intensity effect owes at least in part to technological adoption.

Decoupling Relationship between GDP and CO2 Emission Growth Rates in East Asia based on TAPIO Decoupling model

Decoupling Relationship between GDP and CO2 Emission Growth Rates in East Asia based on TAPIO Decoupling model

Is higher economic growth possible through better institutional quality and a lower carbon footprint? Evidence from developing countries

Mounting scientific evidence shows that CO2 emissions have been a primary cause of climate change, which has harmed the quality of human life and economic development. To reduce the carbon footprint, many developed economies have undertaken various institutional reforms to transition their economies to clean energy sources that are compatible with sound economic growth. The picture is different for many developing countries whose economic development in the past has been dependent on fossil fuels or hydrocarbon energy sources, which have affected their climate adversely. The impact of the quality of the latter countries’ institutions on both climate change and economic growth simultaneously has been under-studied. To address this literature gap, this paper examines the links between institutional quality, CO2 emission, and economic growth in developing countries. Using the Granger Causality test, the study reveals that there is strong interdependence among the variables. Hence, policymakers in these countries should implement holistic co-development policy frameworks that strengthen the institutions of governance as well as adopting clean-energy industrial strategies that minimize CO2 emissions. Such policies positively impact economic growth in these countries.

Investigating spatial variability of CO2 emissions in heavy industry: Evidence from a geographically weighted regression model

China is now the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter, and the government is under tremendous pressure to reduce CO2 emissions. The heavy industry sector is the largest contributor to the growth of CO2 emissions. Investigating the driving factors of this industry's CO2 emissions has important practical value. This paper applies the geographically weighted regression model to survey this industry's CO2 emissions. Empirical results show that urbanization exerts a heterogeneous impact on CO2 emissions across provinces and regions. This is mainly due to the differences in urban real estate and transportation infrastructure investments. Economic growth drives CO2 emissions, and this effect varies significantly by region and province on account of the differences in fixed-asset investment. It is more reasonable for local governments to develop emerging economies based on their specific conditions. Energy efficiency has the highest impact on CO2 emissions in the eastern region, because of the differences in R&D personnel investment and the number of patents granted. The energy consumption structure has the largest impact on CO2 emissions in the eastern region since it consumes more coal. Environmental regulations have a greater impact on CO2 emissions in the western region due to the differences in investment for industrial pollution control.

The influencing factors and spillover effects of interprovincial agricultural carbon emissions in China.

Agricultural carbon emissions have become the constraints of agricultural low-carbon and circular economy development in China. China’s agricultural production faces severe pressures and challenges in agricultural carbon reduction. In this paper, we take observation for the 31 provinces in china from 1997 to 2017, to explore the influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of agricultural by estimating spatial panel data models. The results show that China’s agricultural carbon emissions will continue to increase in the future, because the growth of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is the main driving force to accelerate the growth of agricultural carbon emissions, but the agricultural input factors will help to reduce the growth of carbon emissions. Moreover, it is proved that economic factors and agricultural input factors have direct effects and spatial spillover effects on agricultural carbon emissions except for agricultural environmental factors. In the short term, strengthening environmental protection may bring some pressure to the economic development of some places, but to achieve high-quality development, we must fundamentally solve the problem of environmental pollution. The conclusion provides important enlightenment and scientific basis for formulating effective policies to curb the growth of CO2 emissions in China.

Risk Management Solutions for Climate Change-Induced Disasters.

In honor of the 40th anniversary of Risk Analysis, this article suggests ways of linking risk assessment and risk perception in developing risk management strategies that have a good chance of being implemented, focusing on the problem of reducing losses from natural hazards in the face of climate change. Following a checklist for developing an implementable risk management strategy, Section 2 highlights the impact that exponential growth of CO2 emissions is likely to have on future disaster losses as assessed by climate and social scientists. Section 3 then discusses how people perceive the risks of low-probability adverse events and the cognitive biases that lead them to underprepare for future losses. Based on this empirical evidence, Section 4 proposes a risk management strategy for reducing future losses using the principles of choice architecture to communicate the likelihood and consequences of disasters, coupled with economic incentives and well-enforced regulations.

Estimating energy-related CO2 emission growth in Bangladesh: The LMDI decomposition method approach

Climate change is a key global issue. The continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), from non-renewable energy sources, is the primary driver of climate change. This study sheds light on this issue by examining the historical CO2 emissions of Bangladesh's electricity sector from 1979 to 2018. This study applies the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method to three distinct scenarios regarding future emissions. The results of the study are as follows: (1) the impact of government action, population, and substitution results show optimistic outcomes, while CO2 intensity and power intensity show negative impacts in lessening carbon emissions; (2) The emissions scenario analysis (ESa) from 1979 to 2040 estimates that the continued interaction of these activities with the population and with the coal industry, and predicts that proper deployment of renewable energy technologies can reduce CO2 emissions in Bangladesh; (3) The forecasted results of the analyses suggest that CO2 emissions will peak at 58.97 Mtoe by 2040, which can be reduced by renewable (i.e. solar, wind, biomass) and energy technologies in Bangladesh. Some relevant policy proposals are proffered based on some of the key findings of this study.

The role of socio-economic factors in China's CO2 emissions from production activities

The greenhouse effect related to CO2 emissions has become the focus of extensive attention in China and elsewhere in the world. Thus, it is of great significance to identify the determinants of China's CO2 emissions (CCEs). Using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI), this study focused on investigating the roles of R&D (research and development) efficiency, R&D intensity, investment intensity, labor productivity, employment structure, urban employment ratio, and population urbanization level on CCEs. Then, the grey model and scenario analysis were used to forecast the future situation of CCEs. Results indicate that during 2000-2016, (1) R&D efficiency and energy intensity decline were the foremost contributors in emission mitigation. The rise of urban employment proportion in total employment was also helpful in reducing CO2 emissions. (2) R&D intensity contributed to emission-mitigation in most years, but restrained the decrease of CCEs in some specific years. (3) On the contrary, labor productivity growth, investment intensity increase, and urbanization level improvement all exerted positive impacts on CO2 emissions growth. (4) Based on the scenario analysis, the CCEs mitigation potential was predicted to be 723.15 and 1408.25 Mt in 2030 respectively under the moderate and aggressive scenarios. Finally, policy suggestions relevant to CCEs reduction were provided according to the empirical results.

Carbon Pricing and the Elasticity of CO2 Emissions

We study the impact of carbon pricing on CO2 emissions across five sectors for a panel of 39 countries over 1990-2016. Using newly constructed sector-level carbon price data, we implement a novel approach to estimate the changes in CO2 emissions associated with (i) the introduction of carbon pricing regardless of the price level; (ii) the implementation effect as a function of the price level; and (iii) post-implementation marginal changes in the CO2 price. We find that the introduction of carbon pricing has reduced growth in CO2 emissions by 1% to 2.5% on average relative to counterfactual emissions, with most abatement occurring in the electricity and heat sector. Exploiting variation in carbon pricing to explain heterogeneity in treatment effects, we find an imprecisely estimated semi-elasticity of a 0.05% reduction in emissions growth per average $1/metric ton (hereafter abbreviated as: ton) of CO2. After the carbon price has been implemented, each marginal price increase of $1/tCO2 has temporarily lowered the growth rate of CO2 emissions by around 0.01%. These are disappointingly small effects. Simulating potential future emissions reductions in response to carbon price paths, we conclude that – in the absence of complementary non-pricing policy interventions – carbon pricing alone, even if implemented globally, is unlikely to be sufficient to achieve emission reductions consistent with the Paris climate agreement.

Analytical tool for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impact: an IPAT analysis of Pakistan

The continuous increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emission leads to an adverse climate change, that has a disastrous impact on the socio-economic lives of the human being. Therefore, to reduce the environmental impact on human life, it is necessary to provide mitigation measures for CO2 emissions and to investigate the influence of pre-determined factors such as population, affluence, and technology (IPAT) on the environment. Hence, the current study is undertaken to ascertain the impact of the IPAT factors on environmental quality by using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition techniques for Pakistan over the time period 1990–2014. The CAGR result exhibits that the 142.53 folds in CO2 emissions are driven by the population growth which is accompanied by the income growth, while the technological effect significantly decreased the growth of CO2 emissions by − 82.72 folds during 1990–2014, the energy induced CO2 emissions shows a negative growth rate during the study period that is attributed to the energy crises during most of the study years. Besides, the LMDI decomposition technique shows that the impact of population and affluence leads to an increase in CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the technological effect helps to reduce CO2 emissions in all phases except phase 2 (1995–1999) where it has been identified as a significant contributor to CO2 emissions.

Imbalance and drivers of carbon emissions embodied in trade along the Belt and Road Initiative

A continuous growth of international trade, especially between developing countries, has greatly increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with energy consumption over the past two decades. Given the more intensified intraregional cooperation and trade within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this study aims to trace the imbalance of CO2 embodied in trade between nations in BRI and the rest of the world, providing new insights into the drivers of emissions growth by contrasting consumption, production and technological differences-based perspectives. Results indicate that the BRI contributed to over 50% of global carbon footprint and 92% of its increase in 1995–2015. The BRI was a net exporter of trade-embodied emissions, whose technological-adjusted carbon footprint remained remarkably large due to comparatively high carbon intensity. Geographically, carbon leakage has gradually moved from China and India to other BRI countries, especially to Southeast Asia, West Asia and Africa. Technological change was the key driver of emissions reduction, followed by the change in industrial structure. The growth in final demand per capita was the most important driver for the growth of CO2 emissions in BRI. Improving carbon efficiency remains a critical step for BRI nations to slow down not only emissions growth but also carbon leakage. The paper managed to provide novel insights into the carbon leakage in BRI by contrasting the consumption, production and technological differences-based perspectives, thus being able to better inform policymakers on region-specific low-carbon transition and global climate governance.

A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS BETWEEN RENEWABLE ENERGY, CARBON EMISSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: NEW EVIDENCES FROM SELECTED MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA COUNTRIES

The paper investigated cross-cutting issues relating to renewable energy, carbon-emission and economic growth for a group of 8 MENA countries covering the period 1990-2018. Adopting a modified linear Cobb-Douglas production function, the study adopted the Fully-Modified and the Dynamic OLS estimation technique in examining the aforementioned relationship. Findings from the panel FMOLS and DOLS for the region confirm that a significant relationship exists between CO2 emission and economic growth and that renewable energy consumption triggers a significant effect on economic growth as well. Conversely, the panel of the FMOLS result reveals that while economic growth reacts positively from the effect of CO2 emission, CO2 emission reacts negatively from the effect of renewable energy consumption, as against the positive outcome between renewable energy consumption and CO2 emission as reported by the DOLS. This goes to point out that most economies within this region are yet to uncover best and appropriate policies which can control the regulation of renewable energy prices, that can help take into consideration the stability in economic growth structure and at the same time, mitigate the emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHG).

Industrial growth and CO2 emissions in Vietnam: the key role of financial development and fossil fuel consumption.

The increase in greenhouse gas emission has a major global issue, catching the attention of the researcher and policymakers around the world. The combustion of fossil fuel is the main cause of the rising greenhouse gas emission particularly in developing countries including Vietnam. Meanwhile, the purpose of the study is to evaluate the linkage between fossil fuel consumption, financial development, industrial progression, and CO2 emission over the period from 1970 to 2019, particularly in Vietnam. The study applied the ARDL econometric technique and Bayer-Hanck cointegration approach with structural break to confirm long run relationship and the EKC hypothesis between industrial growth and CO2 emission, in Vietnam, which assume the U-shaped link between CO2 emission and industrial growth in Vietnam. Which further confirmed by Lind and Mehlum U test in addition, the Granger causality exists between fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emission in both short run and long run. The causal relationship is unidirectional in the short run running from fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emission; therefore, the study proposed to adopt low-carbon emission technology.