Abstract
The greenhouse effect related to CO2 emissions has become the focus of extensive attention in China and elsewhere in the world. Thus, it is of great significance to identify the determinants of China's CO2 emissions (CCEs). Using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI), this study focused on investigating the roles of R&D (research and development) efficiency, R&D intensity, investment intensity, labor productivity, employment structure, urban employment ratio, and population urbanization level on CCEs. Then, the grey model and scenario analysis were used to forecast the future situation of CCEs. Results indicate that during 2000-2016, (1) R&D efficiency and energy intensity decline were the foremost contributors in emission mitigation. The rise of urban employment proportion in total employment was also helpful in reducing CO2 emissions. (2) R&D intensity contributed to emission-mitigation in most years, but restrained the decrease of CCEs in some specific years. (3) On the contrary, labor productivity growth, investment intensity increase, and urbanization level improvement all exerted positive impacts on CO2 emissions growth. (4) Based on the scenario analysis, the CCEs mitigation potential was predicted to be 723.15 and 1408.25 Mt in 2030 respectively under the moderate and aggressive scenarios. Finally, policy suggestions relevant to CCEs reduction were provided according to the empirical results.
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