Growth In Tunisia Research Articles

Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Tunisia an ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

The achievement of an effective infrastructure, reliable and fair, is essential for economic growth. Indeed, the transport infrastructure is essential to the prosperity of regions. To investigate the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth, we use the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), we find that transport infrastructure is cointegrated with economic performance, indicating the affirmed presence of long-run equilibrium relationships among them. We use annual data for the period from 1980 to 2013. The study found that the transport infrastructure and investment in transport infrastructure in Tunisia have a significant positive contribution to growth, which shows that each impact is strong and statistically significant. The Tunisian experience suggests that it is necessary to design an economic policy that will improve the transport infrastructure and to increase investment made to the sector for sustainable economic growth in Tunisia. It is necessary to improve the existing road and rail networks. JEL Classification: F63, L91, R41

An ARDL approach to the CO2 emissions, renewable energy and economic growth nexus: Tunisian evidence

This paper examines the relationship between CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption (RENEC) and economic growth in Tunisia via an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Our research question is to what extent renewable energies can be used as an alternative to conventional energies, which are very well known by their strong emissions of greenhouse gases. We use Granger causality tests to check the short and long-run equilibrium relationship. Furthermore, we try to determine the causality direction between these three variables for the Tunisian economy. The results reveal that for the gross domestic product (GDP), CO2 emissions and RENEC are stable in the long-term. However, the Granger causality tests indicate a bidirectional relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions as well as between RENEC and GDP but no relationship between CO2 emissions and RENEC. Thus, to succeed an energy transition project and to benefit from positive impacts on economic growth and environment protection, an appropriate strategy encouraging renewable energy use should be adopted.

The Effects of International Financial Integration on Economic Growth Case of Tunisia

Recent research shows that countries differ according to their experience of capital flows and do not always generate the liberalization of the capital account. This article contributes to the empirical literature by examining the circumstances of international financial integration (IFI) and promoting growth. This article studies the impact of international financial integration on economic growth in Tunisia. Over 1970–2012, we use the error correction model (ECM) to address this issue. The result is consistent with the reality because, in the short run, the integration policy of Tunisia in the global financial market has not been beneficial for growth, which is not the case in the long term. In the long term, we see that growth is elastic compared to foreign direct investment (FDI) which justifies the conclusion that financial integration in the case of Tunisia, in the long run, is real but not in the short run.

The impacts of gender inequality in education on economic growth in Tunisia: an empirical analysis

The positive contribution of women’s education to the economy and society has long been known in many countries, particularly in developing countries, to attract more attention. A large number of literatures on women’s education clearly suggest that educating a woman is equivalent to educating a family and that this woman is better educated than her counterparts, men, in many respects. The low level of education of women in Muslim countries, most of which are in developing countries. The increase in the level of education depends on the elimination of gender inequalities in education. Muslim countries must use all their resources to achieve their economic development goals. Women’s participation in the economy is a major economic resource that is not widely used in Muslim countries. The literature (Dollar and Garti in Gender inequality, income, and growth: are good times good for women? World Bank Working Paper, 21–2 1999; Barro in The Contribution of Human and Social Capital to Sustained Economic Growth and Well Being, Canada Government, Portage 2001; Schltz 2002; Klasen 2002; Knowles et al. in Oxf. Econ. Pap. 54 118–149 2002) suggests that gender equality has a positive effect on economic growth. Taking into account Muslim countries, it can reasonably be argued that the rate of the gender effect on economic growth is higher in developing countries. This paper analyzes the impact of gender inequality in education on economic growth for tunisia will be explored, using econometric techniques. The document will take into account all variables of primary school graduation, obtaining a high school diploma, obtaining a high school diploma and obtaining a University degree with economic growth will be examined in detail for the period 1970–2009. At this level Women’s contribution to the economy is threefold. The first is that the increase in the level of human capital, as a result, decrease the fertility rate of women. The second argument is that the infant mortality rate could decrease by decreasing the fertility rate of women. Third, raising the level of education of women can affect the level of education of the next generation positively. In this context, in order to understand the long-term relationships between these variables, i.e. gender inequality in education and economic growth, a co-integration approach will be applied. The empirical results show that there is a long-term relationship between these variables.

Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, environmental degradation and economic growth in Tunisia

The aim of this document is to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Tunisia over the period 1990–2015. Unit root tests and co-integration test was used in order to detect the order of stationary and to test the existence long run links between the used variables. We apply the Granger causality test and VECM model to discover the short and long run links between the variables. Results have shown a bidirectional causal relationship between energy use and CO2 emissions. Economic growth affects CO2 emission in the short and long run. While there is a unidirectional links running from energy use to economic growth at short run. The paper shares best practices from Tunisia in terms of efficient use of renewable energy policy enablers, which may be contextualized in other emerging economies in order to keep sustainability and to achieve the green economy.

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in Tunisia

This paper examines the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions by using vector error correction model for the case of Tunisia within 1970-2010. Empirical results using time series data suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level in Tunisia. A Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables. The overall results indicate bidirectional causality between energy consumption and CO2 emissions and a unidirectional causality running from pollutant emissions to economic growth. But there is no direct relation between energy consumption and economic growth. Thus, our results reveal that in short term energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption have no effect on the real output growth of Tunisia.

Threshold Effects on the Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia

ABSTRACTUsing an econometric technique suggested by Hansen [(2001). The new econometrics of structural change: Dating breaks in U.S. Labor productivity. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, 117–128], this paper studies the inflation–economic growth nexus in the case of Tunisia for the 1993-01–2012-11 period. The results show that there is one inflation threshold value that does exist for Tunisia. This evidence strongly sustains the view that the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth is non-linear. The estimated threshold regression model suggests that a threshold value of inflation rate below 3.48% fosters economic growth. In addition, above this threshold level, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation rate and economic growth. These results have important implications to policy-makers who should pay attention to the inflation phenomena. Therefore, a new policy that takes into account such a threshold should be set up.

The Interaction between Exchange Rate Regime and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for Tunisia

This paper revisits, empirically, the question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime (floating currency, fixed rate or intermediate arrangement) has a direct effect on the long-term growth in Tunisia over a period from 1990 to 2014. The results show that both series are integrated of order one (I(1)), the existence of a long-term relationship between exchange rate regime and economic growth and Granger pairwise causality test revealed unidirectional causality from real GDP to exchange rate regime (RCt). Our results indicate the absence of any robust relation between the choice of exchange rate regime and economic growth. The policy implication of these findings is clear. The choice of exchange rate policy has no direct impact on the long-term growth of Tunisian economy.

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Tunisia: A Re-examination

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of public debt on economic growth in Tunisia over a period spanning around two decades (1990-2013). Using the Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), the paper traces a long run equilibrium between public debt and economic growth. Besides, we used the Granger causality test to examine the direction of causality among various variables. The results show that public debt and total debt service have a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long run. In the short and long run there is a unidirectional Granger causality between public debt and economic growth. We also find that there is a bidirectional Granger causality between total debt service and economic growth in the long run. While, there is no evidence of short run causality.

Cointegration Entre Corruption Et Croissance Economique A Travers Le Canal De L’investissement : Evidence Empirique Moyennant L’approche ‘’ARDL Bound Testing’’ Dans Le Cas De La Tunisie

This study focuses on the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Tunisia from 1987 to 2013, and is mainly interested in the role of discretion and distortion in public spending. To explore the relationship between the variables of interest, ARDL Bound testing approach of Pesaran and Shin (1999) was used. The empirical results show that corruption negatively affects long-term economic performance. And suggest that public investment large scale is not necessarily desirable in an environment characterized by corruption, because it results in a waste of public funds. However the estimation of an ECM model of short-term dynamics shows that corruption is associated with an increase in real GDP per head. The results support the idea that corruption undermines long-term economic performance and call for institutional reforms to improve the quality of governance as a prerequisite for extensive economic growth.

Long‐term employment intensity of sectoral output growth in Tunisia

AbstractThis article examines the long‐term ability of Tunisian industries to generate employment opportunities. Using a panel data set of 15 industries over 1983–2010, the authors estimate their long‐run output–employment elasticities, using the “mean group” estimator. They argue that economic policy should target the most labour‐intensive industries, particularly service industries and export manufacturing industries. After demonstrating the inability of the mining industry to absorb labour, the authors highlight the long‐run jobless growth in the hotel, bar and restaurant industry and suggest that future investment in this industry will yield no results and that future tourism policy should focus rather on para‐tourism activities.

The Relationship between Democracy and Economic Growth in Tunisia: An Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

This paper aims to identify the nature of the relationship between democracy and economic growth. We will answer the question: Does democracy improve economic growth? We study the case of Tunisia during the period from 1980 until 2014; this country has experienced a democratic transition after the revolution of 14 th January 2011. Our study is divided into two parts. The first part is a literature review of overview on the causality between democracy and economic growth. The second part as an application uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The choice of the technical SARL aimed the study of the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between two variables in level, a procedure co-integration has been proposed by Pesaran et al (2001). The results of different empirical studies were inconclusive. Some generated a negative impact of democracy on growth while others showed the opposite. The empirical results of our work have shown that in a nascent democracy such is the case of Tunisia; democracy has no effect on economic growth in the short term. It is to add an observation rate of GDP during the period post -revolution generated a sawtooth trend which demonstrates the unstable economic situation in the country.

FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM TUNISIA

The objective of this paper is to build an index of financial liberalization in Tunisia using the Principal Component Analysis method over a period of 36 years from 1980 to 2015. In addition, this paper also includes econometric estimates terms of cointegration and causality between financial liberalization policy and economic growth in Tunisia. To do this, we adopt a methodology which is based on an analysis in terms of causality. This approach requires passing through three stages. The first step is to check the properties of time series (stationary and integration order) of the financial liberalization index and economic growth through the use of unit root Dickey-Fuller tests. The second step seeks to examine the long-term relationship between the two variables by using a multivariate analysis Johansen. Finally, the third step seeks to determine the direction of causality between the financial liberalization index and economic growth by applying a vector error correction model. The results show that the two series are integrated of order one (I (1)), the existence of a long-term relationship between the financial liberalization index and economic growth and the presence of causality Granger unidirectional of financial liberalization index to economic growth.

The linkages between formal and informal employment growth in Tunisia: a spatial simultaneous equations approach

This paper examines the links and interactions between the formal and informal employment growth as well as their determinants in 264 Tunisian delegations from 1996 to 2013. The empirical analysis based on non-spatial and spatial simultaneous equations models reveals that an increase in the informal employment growth in industry is positively associated with an increase in the formal employment at the same delegation, and vice versa. For the construction activities, the results show that the formal and informal sectors are opposite. With respect to agglomeration externalities, we find positive effects of local competition on employment growth for both formal and informal sectors. Furthermore, we find that formal employment is higher in delegations with higher average monthly wage and high levels of net migration.

Foreign direct investment in Tunisia: Performance, policies, prospects

Around the turn of the millennium, Tunisia achieved sizeable rates of economic growth. Given the additional fact of an increasing financial deepening and an emerging industry, the country had been considered by many observers as one of the ‘African Lions.’ However, even before the Arab Spring movements started in Tunisia, the average growth rate was still far from the rate required for a fast catch-up with high income economies. This article aims at analysing the role which foreign direct investment (FDI) has played and can play in spurring economic growth in Tunisia. It analyses domestic saving and investment as well as presents patterns of FDI and present promotional policies. The author argues that foreign direct investment can help to overcome some constraints in capital accumulation and even contribute to ‘inclusive growth,’ i.e., a regionally, socially, and inter-generationally balanced growth pattern. There are, however, two preconditions: capital inflows must be directed by appropriate promotional policies and Tunisia must insulate itself from any negative repercussions from the present political unrest in the Middle East and North African region.

Contribution of Structural Change to Productivity Growth: Evidence from Tunisia

The objective of the article is to analyse the dynamics of sectoral productivity growth in Tunisia and assess the contribution of structural change to these dynamics. Using sectoral and firm data, we show that productivity increased at a relatively sustained pace in Tunisia in the last three decades, but that the contribution of structural change remained limited. Trade reforms had a positive impact, while investment and the policies implemented in the mid-1990s had negative effects on structural change. The main impediments are barriers to entry in some sectors, the inefficiency of factor markets and the focus of the firms' upgrading programme only on some selected sectors.

Revising the Empirical Linkage between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Tunisia

This paper investigates the interactive relationships between renewable energy and economic growth based on a Cobb-Douglas production function for Tunisia over the period of 1980-2011. Using an ARDL model, results show confirm the validity of the feedback hypothesis while in the short term the conservation hypothesis is supported. Based on the author's results, the Tunisian government is appealed to revise its policy toward the use of renewable energy by (i) the enforcement of the production and consumption of renewable energy to be substituted to the fossil and fuel energy and (ii) encouraging private sectors to deal with this energy subsector.

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Tunisia

This article examines the two-way linkages between energy consumption and economic growth using data from Tunisia over the period 1974-2011. This research tests this interrelationship between variables using the Johansen cointegration technique. Our empirical results show that there exists bidirectional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the long-run. The study suggests that energy policies should recognize the differences in the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth in order to maintain sustainable economic growth in Tunisia.

Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia

This paper examined an empirical investigation of whether financial development can boost economic growth in Tunisia. We used an Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to assess the finance-growth relation taking private credit, value traded and issuing bank's securities on the financial market as financial development indicators.The empirical results showed that the domestic credit to private sector has a positive effect on the economic growth suggesting that the financial development is a driver of a long term economic growth, but subject to a financial fragility at the short run. Moreover, this study confirmed the view of bidirectional relationship between credit and economic growth. However, we found that neither the stock market development nor the intervention of banks in the stock market had robust and positive effects on the economic growth. Thus, Tunisia is recommended to accelerate in priority the financial reforms of the Tunisian stock market in order to contribute to mobilize savings and promote long run economic growth.

Local employment growth in the coastal area of Tunisia: spatial filtering approach

Since the mid-1980s, Tunisia has conducted a structural adjustment program characterized by more privatization and economic opening. This transition has created unequal growth in the economic performance and the employment opportunities between coastal and interior regions (inland areas). The 14 January revolution has started as social demands against unequal employment opportunities and corruption. The identification of various factors explaining the employment growth in Tunisia's coastal area is necessary to understand regional disparities. In this study, we attempt to assess the impacts of institutional factors and industrial structures on manufacturing employment growth. We seek to answer the following key question: Why does employment grow in one region and not in other? Using panel data on five manufacturing sectors associated to 138 Tunisian coastal small localities (delegations) along six years (2002–2007), we will give some empirical evidence on regional employment growth. We use a dynamic spatial panel data model in order to consider the spatial and temporal effects in the analysis of the local employment growth. Our results show that spillovers have been found to be significantly effective only within a range of 15 km for high-tech industries and 50 km for low-tech. Our econometric result stand that agglomeration and diversity have a positive effect on the local employment manufacturing growth. However, competition has a negative effect. In addition, our results show that industrial zones do not increase employment.