Growth In Tunisia Research Articles

Transition to sustainable environment and economic growth in Tunisia: An ARDL approach

This study investigates the relationship between environmental sustainability and economic growth in Tunisia by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Granger Causality on annual data from 1990 to 2022. It aims to understand how environmental sustainability influences Tunisia's economic growth, revealing a substantial positive long-term association. The research is crucial in the global discourse on sustainability, providing insights for informed policy-making and sustainable development, particularly in developing nations like Tunisia. By utilizing the PCA, the ARDL approach, and Granger causality, the analysis gains robustness, offering a comprehensive understanding of the complex relationship. The originality lies in its Tunisia-specific focus, contributing perspectives to the broader conversation on environmental sustainability and economic growth. Notably, we identify a positive long-term impact of environmental sustainability on Tunisia's economic growth, with implications for policymakers, economists, and environmental advocates. The robustness of the results to different proxies reinforces the credibility and applicability of the findings, advancing both academic understanding and providing actionable insights for policymakers aiming to balance economic prosperity and environmental sustainability in Tunisia and similar developing economies. A green economy model mut be embraced in Tunisia, that meets economic and environmental goals, particularly decarbonization through energy security, creating quality jobs through trade openness and FDI, promoting entrepreneurship and technology start-ups.

Capital account liberalization and economic growth in Tunisia

Capital account liberalization and economic growth in Tunisia

The asymmetric impact of government expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from a NARDL model

Since the 2011 Revolution, Tunisia has faced significant economic development challenges. Government spending plays a crucial role in fostering economic growth. This study focuses on Tunisia from 1980 to 2022, considering factors like foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, capital, and labor. It particularly examines spending in four government sectors: agriculture, education, health, and military. Using the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study investigates how these sectoral government expenditures relate to Tunisia's gross domestic product (GDP). The findings suggest that the relationship between these factors and GDP is complex. For instance, increases in trade openness and FDI generally lead to GDP growth. Similarly, changes in the labor force impact GDP differently in the short and long term, with negative and positive changes eventually benefiting the economy, but positive changes can initially decrease GDP. The study also finds that government spending on agriculture and health positively affects GDP, whereas spending on military and education has a negative impact. To enhance government spending and stimulate economic growth in Tunisia, the study recommends addressing corruption, inefficiency, and waste. It emphasizes the importance of directing public funds towards infrastructure, particularly in the education and military sectors, to improve welfare and support productive activities.

Industrialization, Inclusive Economic Growth: Tunisia in the Era of the Current Crisis

The consequences of the current crisis vary considerably from country to country and from sector to sector. In this paper, we examine how industrialization and inclusive economic growth of Tunisia is being affected by the current crisis. This work focuses on examine critically the importance, performance and underweighting of the industrial sector .Both theoretical and empirical evidence show somewhat unsatisfactory industrial development. The paper finally attempts to explain the way forward (beyond the impasse), by providing alternative approaches, opportunities. To conclude, on using a panel model for a samples of Tunisia covering the period (2008-2022). The results of VECM clearly show the existence of a relationship between industrialization and inclusive economic growth in Tunisia.

An Empirical Analysis of Public Debt and Economic Growth: Tunisia as a Case Study

Public debt has resulted in various economic problems in Tunisia since the outbreak of its revolution in 2010. The main objective of study is to examine the impact of public debt on growth in Tunisia during the post-revolution period. This study uses a vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate the impact of public debt on economic growth in Tunisia. The results prove the long-term relationship between all the variables. This study shows the drawbacks of debt and how it hampers economic growth; hence, it has a negative influence on interest rates and investments. This will subsequently lead to an economic recession due to decreasing growth.

Public Expenditure, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Tunisia During the Period of COVID-19: Comparative Study Between Cartographic Spatial Distribution Analysis and Empirical Validation

The objective of this article is to study the relationship between public expenditure, energy consumption and economic growth during the period of COVID-19 while highlighting a comparative study between the cartographic spatial distribution analysis and empirical validation. In this framework, we tried to present in a spatial distribution mapping for the case of Tunisia while showing the allocation and distribution of public expenditure between several necessary headings such as basic social items and energy consumption during the period from 1990 to 2018.

Smooth transition regression model relating inflation to economic growth in Tunisia

Since its independence, Tunisia has embarked on monetary and financial sector reforms aimed at boosting economic growth. However, these reforms have not been effective due to inflation pressures in this country. Thus, this paper examines the nature of the relationship between financial development and economic growth between 1965 and 2019, using the non-linear logistic smooth transition regression model and considering inflation as a threshold financial development. The results show the existence of a non-linear abrupt relationship with an inflation threshold equal to 3.63%. Specifically, when inflation is below 3.63%, all variables, including inflation, have a significant and positive impact on economic growth. However, when inflation exceeds the estimated threshold, inflation has a significant and negative impact with an elasticity equal to − 0.365. To effectively manage inflation, the Tunisian authorities are encouraged to set and embrace specific inflation targets as a goal. This approach aims to mitigate inflationary pressures and foster a favourable environment for financial development in Tunisia, thereby promoting economic growth. Hence, it becomes imperative to implement such measures that alleviate inflationary pressures and drive economic growth through the facilitation of development finance by the banking sector.

New insights into the impact of global security on economic growth: The case of Tunisia

PurposeThis paper provides a new empirical evidence of the impact of Global security on economic growth in Tunisia. Like Buzan (1991), the framework used four types of security: army security, economic security, social security, and political security.Design/methodology/approachThe authors examine the multidimensionality of global security using ARDL-based cointegration bound tests. The model allows also for examining the long-run/short-run impacts of global security indicators on economic growth.FindingsThe proposed methodology revealed interesting results that may raise some potentially prominent policy implications. First, the findings show that the four security indicators have a significant impact on economic growth. In particular, from a social/political security point of view, the fundamental objective is to satisfy the needs of the poorest population, to limit the effect of social demands and protests on economic and political stability, to review the subsidy principle and aid policy to the poorest families, for greater efficiency and social equity.Originality/valueThe study highlights that global security is no longer a question of just army and defense, but it is also a question of equity, economic, social, and political development. These results call for the policymaker to adopt a strategy that reduces regional disparities and social inequalities and this through fairly distributing financial wealth for the benefit of marginalized populations.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-02-2023-0082

Public external debt and economic growth in Tunisia

The relationship between public external debt and the economic growth of a country is still a subject of significant interest and controversy for researchers. This article focuses on the issue of the effect of the management of the external debt of developing countries on macroeconomic aggregates. The objective is to conduct an in-depth study of the issue of foreign debt carried out by Tunisia and to know its effects on the economy, notably economic growth in long-term. Using a simple methodological approach, VAR techniques were used to reach the aim of the study over the period 2000-2019.

An assessment of the influence of clean energy and service development on environmental degradation: evidence for a non-linear ARDL approach for Tunisia.

This paper investigates the nexus among renewable energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, economic development, and service growth in Tunisia under the linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lags techniques and the Granger causality tests, for the 1980-2020 period. The empirical linear findings proved that renewable energy and service growth positively affect carbon emissions in the long term. The non-linear findings proved that a negative energy shock positively influences environmental quality in the long term. More prominently, in the long run, unilateral causalities from all the modeled variables to carbon emissions have been revealed. To mitigate climate change and get the economy back on track for more prosperity, the Tunisian government must develop an efficient strategy friendly to the environment and further explore the relationship between new technologies and renewable energy. Indeed, we propose to policymakers to encourage and promote the use of innovative clean technologies in the production of renewable energy.

The symmetric and asymmetric impacts of external debt on economic growth in Tunisia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL models.

This paper aims to empirically examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on economic growth in Tunisia between 1965 and 2019. The empirical methodology used is based on the one hand on the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al. (Econ Soc Monogr 31:371-413. 10.1371/journal.pone.0184474, 2001), and on the other hand, on the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (Nucleic Acids Res 42(11):90. 10.1038/s41477-021-00976-0, 2014). The results show that the asymmetry assumption is valid for the long term. In addition, the empirical analysis shows a negative impact of positive external debt variation and a positive impact of negative external debt variation. This suggests that economic growth is more sensitive and favorable to decreases than to increases in external debt, which in turn means that maintaining debt at relatively high levels is detrimental to Tunisian economic growth.

Real exchange rate misalignments and economic growth in Tunisia: New evidence from a threshold analysis of asymmetric adjustments

Real exchange rate misalignments and economic growth in Tunisia: New evidence from a threshold analysis of asymmetric adjustments

Impact of fiscal consolidation on economic growth: the Tunisian case

PurposeDeparting from the expansionary austerity literature, this study aims at examining how fiscal consolidation affects the economic growth in Tunisia using annual data over the period 1970–2018.Design/methodology/approachTo revisit the fiscal consolidation-economic growth nexus, the ambiguous empirical findings in previous literature make useful the adoption of alternative econometric techniques. The authors use an extended nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) and the Diks and Panchenko's (2006) nonlinear Granger causality test. Furthermore, a traditional approach based on changes in cyclically-adjusted primary balance was applied to define the fiscal consolidation episodes in Tunisia.FindingsThe empirical evidence reveal that fiscal adjustment in Tunisia may hurt the economy, both in the short- and long-run, through its contractionary effect on economic growth. Another important finding concerns the unidirectional nonlinear Granger causality running from fiscal consolidation to economic growth.Practical implicationsFiscal adjustment in Tunisia is found to play a prominent role in reducing public debt; but at the same time, it may be costly and not beneficial to the economy. This view corroborates with the fact that fiscal consolidation is more likely to end successfully only under specific conditions. This calls for a deeper reflection upon new insights regarding the design of fiscal adjustment in Tunisia. To reach this end, it is suggested to combine the defensive consolidation strategy with offensive components such as investment, infrastructure, education and health.Originality/valueThe existing economic analysis on fiscal policy-growth nexus in Tunisia has often identified fiscal consolidation through the use of the actual fiscal balance. With the goal of more accurate estimation, this study bridges the gap by using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB) as a much suitable indicator to investigate the non-Keynesian effect of fiscal consolidation in Tunisia. This indicator eliminates the influence of cyclical fluctuations and many other fixed expenditures such as the interest paid on the public debt.

External factors and economic growth in Tunisia: ARDL approach with structural change analysis

This paper examined the effect of external factors on economic growth in Tunisia. The economic analysis was carried out using recent quantitative technique of annual time series data from 1976 to 2017. Based on co-integration test with unknown structural breaks and ARDL bound testing we investigated importance of each factor in stimulating economic growth. Our results show that in the long-run FDI does not affect economic growth. Remittances and imports negatively affect economic growth. Exports promote economic growth such that a 1% increase stimulates economic activity by 0.702%. In the short term, our estimates emphasize a structural break in 1988 linked to the structural adjustment program. Likewise, FDI does not have a significant effect on economic growth while remittances and imports slow economic growth significantly at the conventional level. On the other hand, exports form a relevant engine of economic growth. Therefore, our conclusions imply that political decision-makers in Tunisia must guarantee certain level of training and infrastructure to ensure the gain of transfers of new technologies and experiences related to the FDI. Thus, Tunisia must encourage peoples living aboard to create new investment opportunities instead of just supporting their families for consumption. In addition, the state must develop financial system capable of transferring funds for investment in order to better benefit from remittances. Finally, the government must restrict import of consumer goods and allow import of equipment and machinery goods that promote production and economic growth.

Inequality and Growth in Tunisia: New Evidence from Threshold Regression

Inequality and Growth in Tunisia: New Evidence from Threshold Regression

ICT, trade openness and economic growth in Tunisia: what is going wrong?

In the age of digital globalization, information and communication technologies (ICT) and international trade seem to have become the engines of economic growth. In this study, we investigate the impacts on Tunisia’s economic growth of using ICTs and greater trade openness. We employ a cross-section augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model and apply Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger causality test to panel data for 14 economic sectors in the period 1995–2018. The empirical findings suggest that use of ICTs has a long-term relationship with value added and increased economic growth in Tunisia. In addition, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. We also examine the relationships among these variables in the short and long run. The Dumitrescu and Hurlin test reveals four bidirectional and two unidirectional causal relationships between the variables.

External factors and economic growth in Tunisia: ARDL approach with structural change analysis

This paper examined the effect of external factors on economic growth in Tunisia. The economic analysis was carried out using recent quantitative technique of annual time series data from 1976 to 2017. Based on co-integration test with unknown structural breaks and ARDL bound testing we investigated importance of each factor in stimulating economic growth. Our results show that in the long-run FDI does not affect economic growth. Remittances and imports negatively affect economic growth. Exports promote economic growth such that a 1% increase stimulates economic activity by 0.702%. In the short term, our estimates emphasize a structural break in 1988 linked to the structural adjustment program. Likewise, FDI does not have a significant effect on economic growth while remittances and imports slow economic growth significantly at the conventional level. On the other hand, exports form a relevant engine of economic growth. Therefore, our conclusions imply that political decision-makers in Tunisia must guarantee certain level of training and infrastructure to ensure the gain of transfers of new technologies and experiences related to the FDI. Thus, Tunisia must encourage peoples living aboard to create new investment opportunities instead of just supporting their families for consumption. In addition, the state must develop financial system capable of transferring funds for investment in order to better benefit from remittances. Finally, the government must restrict import of consumer goods and allow import of equipment and machinery goods that promote production and economic growth.

Shadow economy threshold effect in the relationship finance–growth in Tunisia: A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach

AbstractThis paper tracks the financial growth in Tunisia over the period 1984–2016 with a special focus on the shadow economy. Using Tanzi's measures, we worked on a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to test the impact of the informal economy. The results suggest that the long‐run effect of the financial growth becomes negative if there is a positive change in the shadow economy and the opposite holds. While changes in the shadow economy have no significant influence on the links between financial development and economic growth in the short run, they play a significant role in the Tunisian economy in the long run.

Budget Deficits Effects on Tunisian Economic Growth

The objective of this study was to examine the budget deficit impact on economic growth in Tunisia over the period 1970-2018. We proposed a theoretical model highlighting linear and non-linear effects of the budget deficit on economic growth. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, this research work draws a long-run balance between budget deficit and economic growth. In addition, we used the Threshold Regression model to detect the threshold variation at which the budget deficit has a negative impact on economic growth. The results show that the budget deficit has a negative and significant effect on this growth over the short-run rather than the long one. Our estimations, therefore, support the existence of a non-linear relationship between budget deficit and economic growth. We found that, starting from a threshold variation equal to 1.126%, the budget deficit negatively affects the Tunisian economic growth.

CO-INTEGRATION BETWEEN CORRUPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH INVESTMENT CHANNELS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE USING THE ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH FOR THE TUNISIAN CASE

This study examines the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Tunisia from 1992 to 2018 by focusing on the role of the discretionary power and the distortion of the public spending. To explore the relationship between the variables of interest, the ARDL Bound testing co-integration approach of Pesaran and Shin (1999) was used. The empirical results showed that corruption negatively affects the long-term economic performance by suggesting that large-scale public investment is not necessarily desirable in an environment characterized by corruption as this leads to the waste of public funds. However, the estimation of an ECM model of short-term dynamics shows that corruption is associated with the increase of the real GDP per capita. Therefore, these results support the idea that corruption undermines long-term economic performance and call for institutional reforms to improve the quality of governance as a pre-condition for any broad-based economic growth.Keywords: Corruption, Economic Growth, Investment, Co-integration, ARDL, ECM.JEL Classifications : D73, O4, E22, C12, C15DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.10879