Population Growth Research Articles

Elements in Invasive Redclaw Crayfish Cherax quadricarinatus Pose Human Health Risks in the Largest Floodplain System of South Africa

The Australian redclaw crayfish, Cherax quadricarinatus, has been introduced globally for aquacultural purposes, and invasive wild populations have established in several countries. An increase in population growth, has caused several low-income and rural communities to utilise it as an inexpensive protein source. Despite this introduction, limited research has been done on element accumulation, and the risks for human consumption. This study focused on elemental accumulation in C. quadricarinatus from two rivers in the Phongolo River Floodplain (PRF), South Africa. The non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic human health risks associated with its consumption were calculated. The accumulation order in the PRF was Zn > Cu > Pb > Cr > As > Ni > Hg > Cd. Elevated concentrations of As and Hg, as well as As, Cr, and Ni posed non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks, respectively. These results highlight that wild populations of C. quadricarinatus not only pose a threat to aquatic ecosystems but also potentially cause human health risks when consumed.

Spatial Analysis of Major Industrial Risks of Petroleum Origin in Urban Areas - The Case of the City of Hassi-Messaoud.

Aiming at an efficient management of its oil sector and ensuring safety for its population and property, Algeria is currently engaged in all-out assessment approach. Efficient management and safety prove to be crucial parameters in oil-related activity. The major risks degree of the severity of whatever nature have impacts of various and diverse dimensions. The current study presents an occasional paradox case that which combines all high-risk elements and specific factors associated with them in an urban environment, which is made fragile and vulnerable due to its heavy exposure to a highly probable danger. The city of Hassi-Messaoud, the most important component of the Country's economy, witnesses an alarming spatial development driven by an exceptional population growth. The latter is primarily expressed through the incessant influx of immigrants attracted by promising job prospects in the oil industry sector. Coupled with the uncontrolled population movement, the urban expansion lends itself to the most dramatic aspect of Hassi-Messaoud and eventually exposes it to certain dangers all the more as Hassi-Messaoud is located in an area subject to significant potential oil-based risks.

Efficiency of Built-up Land Use on the Socio-Economic Conditions of Cities: Case Study of Bandar Lampung City

Dynamic city development has an impact on land consumption levels, as an effort to increase city capacity, so this is not a sustainable option both socially and economically. As one of the provincial capitals on the island of Sumatra and the city closest to the island of Java, the city of Bandar Lampung certainly experiences the same demands regarding the use of built-up land. In identifying these conditions, this article uses a decoupling analysis method of built-up land area, population and local revenue. This research uses NDBI (Normalized Difference Built-Up Index) to describe built-up land, population and LGR (Local Government Revenue) to describe the social and economic conditions of Bandar Lampung City. The results of the NDBI analysis from 2014 to 2022 show that built-up land in Bandar Lampung City has reached 61.67%. In the same period, the city's population increased by an average of 6.01% and Bandar Lampung City's LGR increased by an average of 13.55% in 2022 amounting to IDR 645 billion. In the decoupling analysis of built-up land to population, Bandar Lampung City has an expansive negative decoupling category, so there are indications that the growth of built-up land is not adjusting to the number of residents to be accommodated. In the decoupling analysis of built-up land against PAD, the decoupling index falls into the Expansive coupling category, which means that built-up land and PAD have increased, but the growth of built-up land is higher than the PAD of Bandar Lampung City. In both conditions, it shows that population growth and local income of Bandar Lampung City is still below the growth of built-up land, so it is indicated that the growth of built-up land in Bandar Lampung City is less efficient.

Prescribed burn related increases of population exposure to PM2.5 and O3 pollution in the southeastern US over 2013–2020

Ambient air quality across the southeastern US has improved substantially in recent decades. However, emissions from prescribed burn remain high, which may pose a substantial health threat. We employed a multistage modeling framework to estimate year-round, long-term effects of prescribed burn on air quality and premature deaths. The framework integrates a chemical transport model with a data-fusion approach to estimate 24-h average PM2.5 and maximum daily 8-h averaged O3 (MDA8-O3) concentrations attributable to prescribed burn for the period 2013–2020. The Global Exposure Mortality Model and a log-linear exposure–response functions were used to estimate the premature deaths ascribed to long-term prescribed burn PM2.5 and MDA8-O3 exposure in ten southeastern states. Our results indicate that prescribed burn contributed on annual average 0.59 ± 0.20 µg/m3 of PM2.5 (∼10 % of ambient PM2.5) over the ten southeastern states during the study period. On average around 15 % of the state-level ambient PM2.5 concentrations contributed by prescribed burn in Alabama (0.90 ± 0.15 µg/m3), Florida (0.65 ± 0.19 µg/m3), Georgia (0.91 ± 0.19 µg/m3), Mississippi (0.65 ± 0.10 µg/m3) and South Carolina (0.65 ± 0.09 µg/m3). In the extensive burning season (January–April), daily average contributions to ambient PM2.5 increased up to 22 % in those states. A large part of Alabama and Georgia experiences ≥3.5 µg/m3 prescribed burn PM2.5 over 30 days/year. Additionally, prescribed burn is responsible for an average increase of 0.32 ± 0.12 ppb of MDA8-O3 (0.8 % of ambient MDA8-O3) over the ten southeastern states. The combined effect of prescribed burn PM2.5 exposure, population growth, and increase of baseline mortality over time resulted in a total of 20,416 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 16,562–24,174) excess non-accidental premature deaths in the ten southeastern states, with 25 % of these deaths in Georgia. Prescribed burn MDA8-O3 was responsible for an additional 1,332 (95 % CI: 858–1,803) premature deaths in the ten southeastern states. These findings indicate significant impacts from prescribed burn, suggesting potential benefits of enhanced forest management strategies.

The Carbon Footprint of the Vascular Surgery Operating Room

ObjectiveClimate change is the single greatest threat to global human health, contributing to changes in disease patterns, water and food insecurity, vulnerability in shelter and human settlements, climatic volatility, and population growth and migration. Healthcare generates between 8 - 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions. Surgical care accounts for a significant proportion due to equipment and drug use, sterility requirements, and life support systems. There are currently minimal data describing this carbon consumption. The purpose of this study was to determine the carbon utilization of common vascular interventions and to identify variables associated with increased carbon utilization. MethodsWe conducted an observational study of all elective and urgent vascular surgery procedures performed at our institution in a two-month period in 2023. All waste generated was weighed and cataloged per hospital waste practices. Additional characteristics of the procedures were also collected. Carbon utilization was determined by applying DEFRA greenhouse gas life-cycle conversion factors to the mean waste produced. These factors take into account greenhouse gas emissions generated in the initial production and eventual disposal. Variables associated with increased carbon production were evaluated by linear regression models with log-transformed outcomes. Results59 procedures were included. Complex endovascular aortic procedures were the most carbon intensive (69.35kg CO2), equivalent to driving a medium-sized vehicle 369 kilometers. Dialysis access procedures (11.5kg CO2) and minor amputations (10.6kg CO2) were the least carbon intensive. Open surgical bypasses (28.4kg CO2) and cerebrovascular procedures (20.3kg CO2) produced a moderate amount of carbon. Endovascular interventions were 50% more carbon intensive than open interventions (95% CI: 28%, 77%; p <0.01). Aortic interventions were 63% more carbon intensive than non-aortic interventions (95% CI: 28%, 109%; p<0.01). In both models, there was nearly a half percent increase in carbon generated for each minute of additional operating time (p<0.01). Blood loss was not consistently associated with carbon utilization. ConclusionsClimate change is a major threat to human health. The environmental impact of day-to-day surgery is rarely considered but clearly significant. Larger procedures are associated with increased carbon utilization, particularly if they are endovascular or aortic. The duration of the case is also associated with increased utilization. Further work should be done to identify additional variables and opportunities for carbon reduction.

Analysis of land use land cover change dynamics in Habru District, Amhara Region, Ethiopia

This study examines spatiotemporal changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) patterns within Habru District, Amhara Region, Ethiopia, between 1985 and 2021. Employing Landsat imagery and a supervised classification approach, we mapped six LULC classes: water body, settlement area, cultivated land, bare land, shrub land, and forest land. Ground control points (GCP) were obtained through field observations to ensured image accuracy. Complementing the remote sensing analysis, focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews were conducted to understand local perspectives on LULC changes. The analysis revealed significant LULC transformations over the study period. Between 1985 and 2021, there was a significant increase in cultivated land and settlement areas, which expanded from 12.27 % to 0.23 %–42.12 % and 2.58 % of the total area, respectively. Conversely, shrub and forest lands saw a marked reduction during the same period, declining from 71.52 % to 12.88 %–45.35 % and 7.06 % of the total area, respectively. Water body area showed a minor increase, while bare land exhibited negligible change. Agricultural land and settlement area expansion, population growth, land tenure insecurity, economic challenge, and climatic change were identified as key drivers of observed LULC changes. Our findings underscore the urgency of implementing multifaceted interventions to address these drivers and promote sustainable resource use practices. Such actions are critical for safeguarding Habru District's natural resources and ensuring the long-term viability of ecosystem services.

Defining Future Cities: A comparative review of future cities’ definitions and characteristics across multiple fields

The rapid interest in future cities within academia is driven by the rising complexity of urban development and challenges such as rapid urbanization, population growth, and inequality. Researchers across various fields have different understandings of future cities and their characteristics, causing confusion and divergence between implementation goals and theories. This research addresses this gap by providing a unified, multidisciplinary definition of future cities, critically analyzing their intellectual and practical characteristics across fields including philosophy, computer science, engineering, environmental science, management, economics, social science, health sciences, architecture and planning.This research employed a mixed-method approach of a hybrid systematic-narrative literature review to identify key characteristics, followed by a multidisciplinary focus group of experts to synthesize the definition and key characteristics. It concluded that despite the rising interest in academia about future cities in recent years, there are differences in how various fields perceive future cities, particularly in areas like infrastructure, resource management, innovation, adaptability, technology, sustainability, and human needs. Despite these differences, future cities share common goals of meeting the well-being and justice needs of both current and future residents. They rely on technology, sustainability practices, community involvement, responsible citizenship, and efficient governance and leadership to ensure sustainable and effective long-term outcomes.

Lemming and Vole Cycles: A New Intrinsic Model.

It is 100 years since the first paper described the multiannual cycles in Arctic rodents and lagomorphs. The mechanisms driving population cycles in animals like lemmings and voles are complex, often attributed to extrinsic factors, such as food availability and quality, pathogens, parasites and/or predators. While extrinsic factors provide insights into population cycles, none fully explain the phenomenon. We propose an underlying innate, intrinsic mechanism, based on epigenetic regulation, that drives population cycles under harsh arctic conditions. We propose that epigenetically driven phenotypic changes associated with sexual development, growth and behaviour accumulate over time in offspring, eventually producing a phase change from rising population density to eventual population collapse. Under this hypothesis, and unlike previous hypotheses, extrinsic factors modify population cycles but would not be primary drivers. The interaction between our intrinsic cycle and extrinsic factors explains established phenomena like delayed-density dependence, whereby population growth is controlled by time-dependent negative feedback. We advocate integrating a century of field research with the latest epigenetic analysis to better understand the drivers of population cycles.

Seaweed sinking has great potential for climate mitigation in China

With the intensification of the greenhouse effect, the climate-mitigation role of marine carbon sequestration (blue carbon) is gaining more attention. Seaweed aquaculture, as an important nature-based solution that provides various ecosystem services while as a food source, have become the main way of marine biological carbon sequestration. As an emerging carbon dioxide removal strategy, sinking seaweeds to the deep sea for additional CO2 sequestration to contribute to Paris Agreement temperature goal have attracted much attention. Currently, the ecological value assessment of sinking seaweeds is immature, and there is also a conflict between with traditional food values. However, in the long term, the value of carbon sequestration will continuously rise as global emission reduction advance, and rapidly growing seaweed production will be able to fully satisfy food demand in the future. Therefore, sinking surplus seaweeds to convert excess food value into higher ecological value is more compatible with development prospects, and long-term planning for sinking seaweed is particularly important. As the largest seaweed farming country, China accounted for more than half of the world’s production in 2021, possessing a huge potential for carbon sequestration. Incorporating factors such as food requirements, emission reduction demands and population changes, this paper explored the feasibility and planning of sinking seaweeds to serve the achievement of climate goals under five SSP-RCP scenarios in 2020–2050. The results indicate that with the slowdown in population growth and increasing demand for climate mitigation, the ecological value of seaweeds has more development potential than the edible value, and thus the sunken seaweed task should be placed more in the later period (2041–2050 phase) to maximize the ecological benefits of seaweed farming. Sinking seaweed is able to serve the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios relatively well, while the realization of the SSP1-1.9 scenario presents some challenges.

Population Growth, Immigration, and Labor Market Dynamics

This article provides a first synthesis of population flows and labor market dynamics across immigrant and native-born populations. We devise a novel dynamic accounting methodology that integrates population flows from two sources—changes in birth cohort size and immigrant flows—with labor market dynamics. We illustrate the method using data for the United Kingdom, where population flows have been large and cyclical, driven first by the maturation of baby boom cohorts in the 1980s and later by immigration in the 2000s. New measures of labor market flows by migrant status uncover the flow origins of disparities in the levels and cyclicality of immigrant and native labor market outcomes and their more recent convergence. An application of our accounting framework reveals that population flows have played a nontrivial role in the volatility of labor markets among the UK-born and, especially, immigrants.

The environmental consequences of rapid urbanization in central Florida reconstructed with high resolution 241Am and 210Pb dating in lake sediments

Throughout the 20th century, Florida was one of the fastest growing states in the US, putting unique environmental stress on the region. Accurately dated lake sediments can provide invaluable records of environmental change that extend beyond monitoring records. Here, we analyze profiles of americium-241 (241Am), cesium-137 (137Cs), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and uranium-series radionuclides in Lake Bonny in Lakeland, Florida. The 241Am peak is sharp in the sediment profile, while the 137Cs peak is broader and spread evenly across two layers. The measured 137Cs inventory of ~448Bq/m2 is less than half of the expected inventory from atmospheric deposition (accounting for decay since deposition), indicating significant losses. The reliability of 137Cs as a chronological tool can be complicated in environments with low quantities of 2:1 clays and low available potassium (K), characteristic of Florida and the U.S. southeast. Using a piecewise constant rate of supply 210Pb model verified by 241Am, we reconstruct sedimentation and chemical change in this lake. Highest sedimentation rates in the lake occur during decades of peak population growth in the mid-20th century. Uranium (U) and radium-226 (226Ra) inputs to the lake reach a maximum in the 1960s, consistent with expansion of local phosphate mines and elevated groundwater pumping during that time in response to drought conditions. Total Pb in the sedimentary record captures the rise and fall of the use of leaded gasoline, but Zn inputs to the lake remain nearly two orders of magnitude above background levels in the last decade. Our high-resolution chronology of the lake reveals regional impacts on water and lake quality in central Florida during a period of rapid population growth.

Crops Feed Rain to Drylands in Northwest China

AbstractAs a key region supplementing China's limited croplands, Northwest China has undergone rapid cropland expansion over the past decades to satisfy rising food demand from population growth and socio‐economic development. Although cropland expansion may overconsume local water resources in general, in Northwest China, increased precipitation and enhanced glacier melt have increased the water available for croplands. Counterintuitively, the enhanced evapotranspiration (ET) resulting from this cropland expansion could benefit remote ecologically vulnerable natural vegetation through atmospheric moisture recycling. In this study, we used a moisture tracking model to quantify contributions of croplands and cropland expansion to local precipitation and the consequent precipitation supply to natural vegetation in Northwest China. We found that the croplands contributed 27.69 billion m3/year (2.13%) of regional total precipitation and supplied 17.30 billion m3/year (2.39%) of precipitation over natural vegetation, and the cropland expansion resulted in a net increase of 80.25 million m3/year (1.07% of the total increase) in regional precipitation and 36.23 million m3/year (4.56% of the total increase) in precipitation supply for natural vegetation. Among different types of natural vegetation, grasslands received the most precipitation supply due to its vast area, followed by forests and shrublands. The more arid regions experienced not only faster rates of cropland expansion but also obtained a greater increase in regional precipitation and precipitation supply to natural vegetation. Our study quantifies the ecological impacts of cropland expansion through moisture recycling in Northwest China. This shows the complexities of water competition between agricultural development and ecological conservation in drylands and elsewhere.

Synthesis of Thioglycolic Acid-Modified Molybdenum Disulfide Nanosheets for Electrochemical Sensing and Its Application in Molnupiravir Detection

In the modern world, population growth, industrialization, and lifestyle changes have led to a rise in existing and new diseases, increasing global drug consumption. Proper pharmaceutical dosage is vital since drugs are only effective within specific concentration ranges. Therefore, developing reliable analytical methods for drug analysis in pharmaceuticals and biological samples is essential. Electroanalytical methods are particularly advantageous due to their low cost, ease of use, and rapid response. This study introduces a highly sensitive electrochemical sensor based on thioglycolic acid (TA)-decorated metallic phase molybdenum disulfide (MP-MoS2) nanosheets for the selective detection of molnupiravir (MOL), an antiviral drug used in Covid-19 treatment. The TA@MP-MoS2 nanomaterial was characterized using FTIR, TEM, and EIS. Screen-printed carbon electrodes (SPCE) were modified with TA@MP-MoS2 nanosheets to evaluate their electro-chemical and catalytic behaviours towards MOL by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and square wave voltammetry (SWV). The sensor displayed a well-defined electro-oxidation signal for MOL at 0.534 V, with the linear responses in two concentration ranges: 0.50–3.40 μM and 3.40–9.55 μM, and a low detection limit of 22.6 nM. The proposed design that has promising results could be an alternative strategy to fabricate the sensitive sensor for the detection of antiviral agents in real samples.

Two decades of land cover change and anthropogenic pressure around Bontioli Nature Reserve in Burkina Faso

Protected areas (PAs) are critical for ecosystem maintenance and providing services that benefit both wildlife and people. Nevertheless, climate change and anthropogenic pressures are posing an increasing challenge. Surrounded by high human population densities, there is still a paucity of information on how the land cover in Burkina Faso's PAs is changing, and what kinds of human activities are the main drivers. In this study, we examined the change in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Bontioli Nature Reserve (NR), one of Burkina Faso's most important protected areas, and assessed anthropogenic pressure within and around. Landsat imagery (ETM+ and OLI-TIRS) is used to categorise and estimate the change in LULC in 2000, 2010, and 2022 with the Random Forest algorithm on the Google Earth Engine platform. Regression analysis was applied to examine the relationship between the LULC categories and population increase. We found significant changes and correlations in LULC trends and population growth over time. From 2000 to 2022, wooded savanna, tree savanna, and shrub savanna decreased by 20.8 %, 6.8 %, and 4.5 %, respectively, while cropland increased by 26.3 %, along with grass savanna by 5 %. Population growth correlated with increased agriculture and decreased vegetative area with R2 of 0.903 and 0.793, respectively. Efforts should be made to create harmony between humans and nature through various approaches such as nature-based solutions to enable efforts for the reserve sustainable management (SDG15).

Evaluating the Nonlinear Population-Economic Growth Nexus in MENA Countries

The relation between population growth and economic growth is a complex one, and the historical quantitative evidence is ambiguous. This study contributes to the population-economic growth literature by interrogating whether the relationship is monotonic or if a turning point exists. Using panel data on a sample of 19 MENA countries from 1965 to 2018 and deploying the PSCE and FGLS techniques, the results reveal inter alia: (1) a U-shaped relation exists; (2) unemployment and financial development are negative predictors of economic growth; and (3) trade and inflation rate are positive predictors. Policy recommendations are discussed.

How water circularity can help to reduce and regulate water waste in urban districts

Abstract Global water consumption has increased sixfold in the past 100 years and is growing at about 1% per year due to population growth, economic development, and changing consumption patterns; therefore, climate change, combined with urbanization and population growth, is causing water availability problems in cities around the world. Rethinking circular cities that put water at the centre of their priorities and that manage it cyclically and keep it within the urban environment as much as possible to maximize its value must become the fundamental goal. However, to date, cities are not even close to maximizing the use of water that reaches their buildings. As a result, two main issues have emerged as crucial in the international debate: the scarcity of water resources due to its wastefulness and overuse, and extreme weather events, such as heavy rains alternating with periods of prolonged drought, a consequence of global warming. In response to these issues, this research aims to investigate the potential of a design approach that takes into account the two phenomena of water excess and shortage, integrating water from the earliest decision-making stages of building design. Starting from the definition of architectural strategies, replicable solutions are defined and evaluated against specific KPIs to develop a resilient and climate-neutral architectural and urban design model.

Experimental study based on the usage of polymers for greywater treatment

Water scarcity presents a pressing challenge in Egypt, exacerbated by factors such as population growth, urbanization, and climate change impacts. With over 95% reliance on the Nile River for freshwater supply, Egypt's water resources are strained, particularly with a population exceeding 100 million. Egypt's arid climate intensifies water scarcity, necessitating sustainable management strategies. This study explored greywater treatment as a solution to alleviate water scarcity in Egypt, investigating its technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental benefits. Greywater, derived from domestic activities, is an underutilized resource that can be reclaimed and treated for reuse, reducing demand for freshwater sources. Through greywater treatment systems, households and communities can recycle water, conserve resources, and mitigate pollution. The study investigated using polymers as a coagulant in greywater treatment, examining its efficacy in removing contaminants and improving water quality. Experimental trials were conducted to evaluate the performance of polymer addition in greywater treatment compared to conventional methods. Results demonstrate that polymer addition reduces turbidity, suspended solids, and organic pollutants in greywater. Poly aluminum chloride (PAC) polymer, in particular, exhibits strong coagulation capabilities, versatility across pH ranges, and high efficiency in contaminant removal. Additionally, PAC offers operational advantages such as low dosage requirements and reduced sludge production.

Simulation and prediction of daytime surface urban heat island intensity under multiple scenarios via fully connected neural network

The intensification of the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), driven by urbanization, land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and population growth, presents significant environmental and public health risks in urban areas. Simulating and predicting SUHI, particularly through the identification of future high SUHI intensity (SUHII) zones, has been recognized as a critical step in mitigating these effects. This study employs a Fully Convolutional Neural Network (FCNN) model, trained on data from four research sites, to simulate the current daytime SUHII across six validation sites in Singapore, utilizing 15 key independent variables identified in previous studies. The model exhibits high validation accuracy, achieving 87.45%. Three projection scenarios, based on projected population growth and LULC changes, predict a decrease in High SUHII across all validation sites, ranging from 98.3% to 9%. This reduction is attributed to the LULC improvements proposed in the 2019 Master Plan. Spatial analysis of the predicted SUHII maps indicates that the majority of High SUHII locations across scenarios remain consistent with the current situation. This research also suggests that the model could be a valuable tool for urban planners, allowing them to assess whether new urban development plans will effectively reduce High SUHII to desired thresholds, thereby mitigating SUHII in urban environments.

A stochastic model for the bacterial growth exhibiting staged growth, desynchronization, saturation and persistence

We consider a model of population growth based on the stochastic variation of the population size-controlled duplication of bacterial cells. It is shown that the proper choice of the control function allows for reproducing a variety of regimes: a logistic growth with saturation, a hindered growth typical for persistent bacterial systems, and a linear population growth detected for some mycobacterial populations. When supplied with the rectangular function having the width equal to the generation time, this approach represents the solution generalizing Rubinow’s age-maturity model reproducing systems with desynchronisation and saturation. The model’s plausibility is confirmed by the direct comparison with real data for the growth of M. tuberculosis populations obtained with the BACTEC MGIT system under different conditions of growth synchronisation.

A modified matrix model captures the population dynamics for the primary vector of Lyme disease in North America

AbstractLyme disease, the most prevalent tick‐borne disease in North America, is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, and in the eastern and central United States, it is spread to humans by the black‐legged tick (Ixodes scapularis). Due to the complex, multiyear and multihost life cycle of this species, a matrix modeling approach is needed to effectively estimate subseasonal, multistage survival and transition dynamics in order to better understand and predict when population growth is high. Of the three questing tick life stages (larvae, nymphs, and adults), nymphs are most often associated with transmitting the bacteria to humans, and previous work suggests a mix of abiotic and biotic drivers are associated with nymph abundance. However, understanding tick population growth requires understanding mortality and transition probabilities for each stage and each stage may be individually and uniquely impacted by climate and host availability. A larval tick, for example, may experience warming temperatures differently than nymph or adults, because they are present on the landscape at different times. Here, we describe and validate a model that accounts for field sampling design and evaluates abiotic (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) and biotic (host abundance) drivers of variation in tick population growth. To account for the drivers of subseasonal and interannual variability in demography, phenology, and population density, we built stage‐structured population models that account for variability in meteorology and host population abundance throughout the full tick lifecycle. Our model is fit and validated with 11 years of tick and host data from the northeastern United States. In this context, we found that a four‐stage model that includes unique transitions to and from a dormant, overwintering nymph state outperforms a model that only includes the three questing stages, and that incorporating the abundance of the predominant host species, Peromyscus leucopus, and weather variables improved predictions and model fit. Additionally, the model accurately predicted all three questing stages at sites different than where they were calibrated, showing that this model structure is generally transferable. Overall, this model lays a foundation for the real‐time iterative forecasting of tick populations needed to effectively protect public health.