Population Density Growth Research Articles

A Bayesian spatial–temporal model for predicting passengers occupancy at Beijing Metro

The growing population density in cities requires urban transportation to meet the travel needs of citizens fast and accurately. Therefore, the correct prediction of daily passenger flow in urban subway transportation is of great practical importance for rationalizing the traffic arrangement and safely responding to unexpected passenger flow. This work builds a Bayesian spatial–temporal model for predicting station occupancy. The proposed one provides point estimations of daily passenger flow, a reliable assessment of their uncertainty, and the possibility of understanding traffic features. It also provides a prediction accuracy that meets the standards of the Beijing Metro enterprise. The model discussed in this paper is in force at Beijing Metro Group Ltd to programme daily train schedules.

Population distribution analysis in Banda Aceh City for tsunami disaster risk reduction

Areas affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami have recovered following a long-term reconstruction process, including Banda Aceh City, Indonesia. Using data from the Statistics Indonesia, this study aims to analyze population dynamics in Banda Aceh City, starting from 2004 (pre-tsunami), 2005 (shortly after the tsunami), as well as 2010 and 2020 (post-reconstruction phase). Population dynamics are calculated at the sub-district (kecamatan) level by observing trends and changes in size and rank based on population density and population growth rate values. Some of the tsunami-affected sub-districts have experienced population recovery to pre-disaster levels, while population growth in safe areas is relatively high in line with development directions to the east and south of the city. However, disaster risk reduction tasks will be even more challenging as the population in coastal areas is growing at an alarming rate. Therefore, the government needs to design a comprehensive policy to minimize the population’s exposure to the tsunami hazard.

Affecting of Nature and Human Activities on the Trend of Vegetation Health Indices in Dak Nong Province, Vietnam

This study aims to evaluate the effects of natural and human conditions on vegetation covers using VCI and TCI indices (the satellite-based Vegetation Health Indices (VHIs)) in Dak Nong province. Factors affecting the VHIs included in the analysis involve land use, soil, population, topography, distance to roads and surface water. The data analysis period is the dry season from 2000 to 2020. The trend of the VHIs’ change in this study is analyzed using Sen’s method with monitoring data from Modis. The effects of factors affecting the VHIs are based on logistic regression and discriminant analysis. The analysis results show that the VHIs are clear and show both increasing and decreasing trends. Based on logistic regression analysis, the influence of land use types on the trend of the VHIs in the direction of increasing from negative to positive will be from PdF, UnL, AnC, SpF, PtF, PeA and then to PdR. Corresponding to the soil will be from ACa, FRp, FRx, FRr, ACh, LVx, FLg and then to LVg. Based on the discriminant analysis method, it was found that there are only four primary factors affecting the trend of the VHIs in order of decreasing level of closure: population density, land use, soil and population growth rate and to the road. These results show that in places where labour resources are available, plants are interested in investment due to high profits, nutrient-rich soil and convenience for plant care; the VHIs tend to increase and vice versa. Compared with VCI, the trend of TCI tends to be sloping negative and more pessimistic. Through the coefficients of the logistic regression equation and the difference function, the TCI is more sensitive than the VCI when the independent variables change, especially for changes in population density and land use. Thus, TCI can be considered the preferred option for assessing vegetation health trends in the context of climate change.

Stability and Changes in the Spatial Distribution of China’s Population in the Past 30 Years Based on Census Data Spatialization

As the world’s most populous country, China has experienced massive population growth and dramatic regional migration over the past 30 years. From 1990 to 2020, the national population increased by 24.4%, the urban population tripled, and the rural population declined by 41.0%. Combined with complex topographic features, unique characteristics of the population distribution have emerged. Many studies have examined changes in the spatial distribution of the population. However, few studies have examined the stability of certain aspects of this distribution over the last 30 years, particularly at the raster scale, which may provide important information for future research and development plans. Based on land use maps and nighttime light images, China’s census data from 1990 to 2020 was scaled down to a resolution of 1 km using a method called multiple linear regression based on spatial covariates. The results show that there were some striking features of both stability and change in the spatial distribution of China’s population over the past three decades. The population shares divided by the Hu line, the Qinling-Huaihe line, and the three-step staircase have remained almost unchanged. In contrast, the population share of the coastal region has risen from 23.7% to 29.0% during the study period. The urban areas have expanded by 1.35 times and their population has doubled. In addition, for every 1 km2 increase in the urban areas, an area of 29.4 km2 has been depopulated on average. This suggests that urbanization can alleviate population pressure in larger areas. However, the coastal regions and urban and peri-urban areas were the main areas of population density growth, so they required a great deal of attention for ecological protection.

Exploring the ecosystem services bundles and influencing drivers at different scales in southern Jiangxi, China

Located in the hilly and mountainous central area of the national ecological security strategic pattern (described as “two ecological barriers and three green belts”), southern Jiangxi is an important ecological barrier in southeast China and a pilot area for the national mountains-rivers-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands restoration projects. In recent years, the rapid economic development of the southern Jiangxi region and the rapid changes in land use, agricultural intensification, and population urbanization have severely tested this ecosystem on which people depend for their survival. Currently, studies of ecosystems and their interactions from a single spatial perspective have sprung up, but only a few studies have comprehensively analyzed different spatial scales to facilitate the sustainable development of regional ecosystems. Multi-scale studies should be carried out to quantitatively understand the relationship between ecosystem services (ESs) and socio-natural drivers, in an attempt to find a suitable scale to assess regional ESs or to achieve complementary advantages by combining multi-scales so as to conduct hierarchical management of ESs. Therefore, to better understand the interplay between ESs and to achieve the goals of sustainable development, we quantitatively analyzed the evolutionary patterns, trade-offs, and synergies of ESs. In our analysis, we also looked at bundling ESs and their drivers for seven ecosystem services at the township and watershed scales for 2000–2020 in southern Jiangxi. Crop production, meat production, water yield, carbon storage, soil retention, habitat quality, and forest recreation services were specifically quantified, and redundancy analysis was used to explore the influence degree of precipitation, temperature, elevation, slope, GDP, and population density on ESs. The results showed that most ESs have increased in southern Jiangxi, indicating spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The scale effect of trade-off and synergy showed that the spatial variation was similar, but the amplitude of variation was different. Compared with the watershed scale, the overall bundle of ESs in southern Jiangxi is better identified and clustered at the township scale. In addition, Cluster 4 at the township scale and Cluster 3 at the watershed scale can comprehensively identify high-value areas of ecosystem services in the study area. The rapid growth of GDP and population density caused by rapid urbanization were the main driving factors of the difference in ESs between the two scales in southern Jiangxi. Our results provide recommendations for governance and restoration of regional ecosystem services and support for conducting a comprehensive analysis of spatio-temporal evolutionary mechanisms and interactions of ecosystem services at different scales.

Does ecological footprint affect biocapacity? Evidence from the experiences of G20 countries

AbstractThe use of the difference between ecological footprint and biocapacity to evaluate the sustainable development of a country may be biased. Therefore, we discuss the nonlinear impact of the ecological footprint on biocapacity from the perspective of the self‐regulation capacity of the ecosystem, which provides a new perspective for evaluating the sustainability of a country. Using panel data of the G20 countries, this study establishes a panel smooth transition model with a continuous transition process, which abandons the constraints of linear models and agrees with the gradual characteristics of ecosystem evolution. The results show that: (1) For the G20 countries, the influence of ecological footprint on biocapacity presents an inverted “U” curve. (2) From the perspective of the degree of development of a country, the growth of the ecological footprint of a developing country will weaken its biocapacity, whereas that of a developed country will enhance its biocapacity. (3) Economic growth weakens biocapacity, and overheated economic growth may have an irreversible impact on the ecosystem. (4) Technological progress and population density growth will enhance biocapacity.

Shifting Centers of Gravity: Analyzing the Changing Patterns of Population and Economy in China

This study examined: 1) the shifting patterns of population, economy, and center of gravity in each industry using the regional center of gravity model, and 2) the socioeconomic factors influencing the economy and population in China using the geographic detector model. Several major findings included the following: First, the population and economic gravity center have shifted generally to the southwest. The centroid of gravity model can capture the changes in regional disparities from a dynamic perspective and visualize the changes over time. Second, while both the primary and secondary sectors have transferred their centers of gravity to the northwest, the tertiary sector’s center of gravity has shifted to the southwest. Third, educational resources, financial distribution, and the tertiary sector have a substantial influence on economic growth, whereas the impact of financial distribution, educational resources, and the secondary sector on population density growth is relatively significant. This study contributes to offering valuable insights into the changing patterns of population, economy, and industry in China, as well.

Sunlight Parameters Influence the Survival and Decline of Salmonella and Escherichia coli in Water

The effect of variations in temperature, UV radiation, and sunlight intensity on Escherichia coli, E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella Newport, and antibiotic resistant (ABR) variants of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella Newport exposed to sunlight was evaluated. Bacterial strains suspended in sterile deionized water at a concentration of 8 log CFU/mL were exposed to sunlight on three different days for 180 min; control treatments were stored in the dark. The mean temperature of 30.08 and 26.57°C on day 1 and day 3, respectively, was significantly different (P < 0.05). The UV intensity was significantly different on all 3 days, and sunlight intensity significantly differed on day 3 (P < 0.05). Bacterial population decline positively correlated with temperature, sunlight, and UV intensity. Differences in bacterial population declines differed among species, ABR profile, and day of exposure (P < 0.05). On day 1 and day 2, the populations of E. coli dropped below the limit of detection (1 log CFU/mL), whereas the percentage of live cells was 67 and 6.6%, respectively. The artificial neural network model developed to predict bacterial survival under different environmental conditions suggested that Salmonella cells were more resistant than E. coli cells. The ABR strains had significantly higher numbers of viable cells after sunlight exposure (P < 0.05). Sunlight-exposed cells resuscitated in tryptic soy broth varied in maximum population density and maximum specific growth rate based on bacterial species and presence of ABR. Morphological changes such as viable but nonculturable state transition and filament formation were detected in subpopulations of sunlight-exposed bacteria. Daily fluctuations in UV and sunlight intensity can result in significant variations in bacterial decline and recovery.

Assessing the environmental sustainability corridor: linking oil consumption, hydro energy consumption, and ecological footprint in Turkey.

Climate change has been a topic of significant discourse and debate among scholars and policy makers for several decades. In recent decades, it has become a major problem for the entire human race. Therefore, the present research evaluates the impact of oil consumption, hydro energy use, population density, and economic growth on ecological footprint in Turkey for the period from 1965QI to 2018Q4. This paper uses the BDS test to assess the nonlinearity of the variables in the pre-estimation analysis. The results of the test reveal that non-linearity occurs in all of the variables used in this study. As a consequence, using traditional linear methodologies would produce erroneous results. Our research uses the quantile techniques (quantile cointegration, quantile causality, quantile-on-quantile regression), which are recently developed nonlinear estimate methodologies to assess these associations. The results from the study reveal that oil consumption, hydro energy use, population density, and economic growth contribute to environmental degradation in Turkey in majority of the quantiles. The Granger Causality in Quantiles result also gives credence to the results. The study proposes policy recommendation based on these results.

Time-lagged effects of habitat fragmentation on terrestrial mammals in Madagascar.

Biodiversity is severely threatened by habitat destruction. As a consequence of habitat destruction, the remaining habitat becomes more fragmented. This results in time-lagged population extirpations in remaining fragments when these are too small to support populations in the long term. If these time-lagged effects are ignored, the long-term impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation will be underestimated. We quantified the magnitude of time-lagged effects of habitat fragmentation for 157 nonvolant terrestrial mammal species in Madagascar, one of the biodiversity hotspots with the highest rates of habitat loss and fragmentation. We refined species' geographic ranges based on habitat preferences and elevation limits and then estimated which habitat fragments were too small to support a population for at least 100 years given stochastic population fluctuations. We also evaluated whether time-lagged effects would change the threat status of species according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessment framework. We used allometric relationships to obtain the population parameters required to simulate the population dynamics of each species, and we quantified the consequences of uncertainty in these parameter estimates by repeating the analyses with a range of plausible parameter values. Based on the median outcomes, we found that for 34 species (22% of the 157 species) at least 10% of their current habitat contained unviable populations. Eight species (5%) had a higher threat status when accounting for time-lagged effects. Based on 0.95-quantile values, following a precautionary principle, for 108 species (69%) at least 10% of their habitat contained unviable populations, and 51 species (32%) had a higher threat status. Our results highlight the need to preserve continuous habitat and improve connectivity between habitat fragments. Moreover, our findings may help to identify species for which time-lagged effects are most severe and which may thus benefit the most from conservation actions.

Land-use function evolution and eco-environmental effects in the tarim river basin from the perspective of production–living–ecological space

The identification of land type multi-functionality is a basic tool for the organization, coordination, and configuration of basin land, and provides a key criterion for determining the combination of land-use functions and the status quo of the ecological environment in the basin. However, a feasible identification method system for this purpose has not yet been established. Therefore, in this study, we construct a production–living–ecological space (PLES) classification system from the comprehensive perspective of land-use type and ecological environment. Based on remote sensing of PLES and statistical land-use status data for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, we analyze the evolutionary characteristics of land-use function using the transfer matrix and center of gravity transfer methods. These are combined with the eco-environmental quality index to reveal the driving factors of eco-environmental quality spatial differentiation using the geographic detector model. The results indicate that the overall ecological environment quality index of the Tarim River Basin presents a downward trend, with a spatial differentiation pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast. Over the past 20 years, the ecological environment quality index has dropped by 0.852. The structural evolution and regional differentiation of PLES areas are remarkable, all of which expanded over the study period (except for the key ecological land). The center of gravity of production land presented the most obvious migration, with a total migration of 10,601.76 m to the northeast. Eco-environmental effects are found to be mainly driven by socio-economic factors, of which population density growth is the most important. The implementation of some ecological restoration projects has played a role in slowing down the degradation trend of the ecological environment quality in the Tarim River Basin; however, due to population increases and socio-economic development, the ecological environment degradation has overall been exacerbated.

A path towards environmental sustainability: The role of clean energy and democracy in ecological footprint of Pakistan

Political institutions play a key role in countries' environmental footprints since they govern environmental policies. Democracy is an important institutional variable that can exacerbate or alleviate the ecological footprint (EF). The limited literature on democracy and EF association unfold conflicting results. Therefore, this empirical research studies the effect of democracy on EF in Pakistan, where various strict policies have weakened democracy and the country has also been severely affected by climate change. The study employs the novel Augmented ARDL (AARDL) approach to quantify the impact of democracy on EF by including population density, clean energy, and economic growth. The findings from the AARDL method unfold cointegration among variables. The long-run results reveal that democracy is negatively associated with EF. The results also suggest the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis between EF and economic growth while accounting for democracy in the model. Hence, the study concludes that democracy is a significant driver of environmental sustainability. Further, the estimates of the AARDL also support a mitigating impact of clean energy on EF, while population density upsurges EF. Finally, the AARDL based causality test is applied, which disclosed causality between most regressors and EF. Lastly, detailed policy implications are directed.

Crime and social environments: differences between misdemeanors and felonies

Owing to the growing population density of urban areas, many people are being increasingly exposed to criminal activity. Increasing crime rates raise the risk of both physical and psychological injury to law-abiding citizens, creating anxiety. From the viewpoint of complex systems, crime prevention through data science can be a solution to such issues. However, previous studies have focused only on a single aspect of crime, ignoring the complex interplay between the various characteristics, which must be considered in an analysis to understand the dynamics underlying criminal activities. In this study, we examined 12 features that have been identified as correlates of crime rates using state-level statistics from the USA. We found that the correlates of misdemeanors and felonies differ. The number of misdemeanors is strongly associated with the police precinct, whereas felony rates are strongly correlated with gun possession and happiness. Our findings suggest that the countermeasures for misdemeanors should be treated differently from those for felonies.

Cleaner Technology and Natural Resource Management: An Environmental Sustainability Perspective from China

In economies, cleaner technology, increased demand for renewable energy, and more efficient use of natural resources contribute to meeting environmental sustainability targets. The Chinese economy is no exception in its attempts to conserve economic and natural resources via collaborative efforts to embrace cleaner technology, green energy sources, and resource conservation management to preserve resources for future generations. This research examines the influence of cleaner technologies, green energy sources, and natural resource management on reducing greenhouse gas emissions using quarterly data for the Chinese economy from 2000Q1 to 2020Q4. The findings demonstrate that increasing demand for green energy reduces greenhouse gas emissions, hence substantiating the premise of ‘green is clean’ energy development. Additionally, optimum resource usage enhances environmental quality, corroborating the ‘resource cleaner blessing’ hypothesis. The positive link between inward foreign direct investment and greenhouse gas emissions substantiates the ‘pollution haven’ concept, according to which inward foreign direct investment uses unsustainable technology in manufacturing processes, hence degrading air quality indicators. Inadequate access to clean cooking technology and increased population density has a detrimental effect on the country’s environmental sustainability agenda, which must be corrected via sustainable regulations. The causality estimates show the feedback relationship between renewable energy demand (and economic growth) and cleaner technology, between economic growth and green energy (and inbound foreign direct investment), and between population density and economic growth (and green energy). The Impulse Response function estimates suggested that economic growth and population density would likely increase GHG emissions. In contrast, cleaner technology, green energy demand, natural resource management, and inbound foreign direct investment would likely decrease greenhouse gas emissions for the next ten-year time period. The sustainability of the environment and natural resources in China is bolstered by developing cleaner technologies, a greater reliance on renewable energy sources, and better management of natural resources.

When Disaster Strikes! An Interdisciplinary Review of Disasters and Their Organizational Consequences

Disasters (e.g., natural catastrophes, pandemics/epidemics, mass violence events, and human/technological errors) are becoming increasingly common due to factors such as growing population density and accelerated climate change. Exposure to any type of disaster is damaging for both individuals and organizations. Disasters deprive individuals of their livelihoods, alter how employees perform their work, and harm individual well-being. For organizations, disasters compromise functioning and profitability, often resulting in organizational failure. As a result, there is growing interest in research linking disaster events to the workplace. Based on an analysis of 260 disaster articles, we offer a comprehensive, systematic, interdisciplinary review of the disaster literature with organizational implications. Employing a resource-based perspective, embedded within an ecological systems framework, we suggest that disaster exposure depletes (or prompts investment of) individual, team, and organizational resources and subsequently impacts organizational outcomes. This theoretical framework can be used to identify the critical research gaps that exist in the literature and offers a promising agenda for future research.

A Path Towards Green Revolution: How do Environmental Technologies, Political Risk, and Environmental Taxes Influence Green Energy Consumption?

Enhancing green energy consumption is the most important strategy to achieve environmental goals and control global temperature rise. Unquestionably, political intuitions make decisions for developing environmental technologies and imposing environmental taxes for phasing out fossil fuels and achieving energy transition. Therefore, this study explores the role of environmental technologies, political risk, and environmental taxes in green energy consumption considering the potential impacts of population density and economic growth in G7 countries. Second-generation tests are applied for analyzing the long-run equilibrium connection and stationarity features. Finally, the CuP-FM and CuP-BC estimators are applied for assessing long-run linkage and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causal test is applied to reveal causal flow among variables. The estimates uncovered that enhancing environmental technologies and environmental taxes upsurges the consumption of green energy. Reducing political risk in G7 countries also boosts green energy consumption. Economic growth is evidenced to stimulate the consumption of green energy, while population density limits the consumption of green energy. Moreover, environmental technologies and political risk Granger cause green energy utilization, while a feedback relationship exists between environmental taxes and green energy usage. Based on the results, this study suggests that G7 countries should allocate more funds to accelerate innovation in environmental technologies and, at the same time, reduce the political risk to boost green energy consumption.

Airports and population density: where benefits outweigh costs

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of airports on population density distribution in the surrounding areas. Using data for 197 European airports, results show that a 10% increase in airport activity leads to a growth in population density of 3.8%. While moving farther from the city centre leads to a decline in population density, we demonstrate that, on average, population density increases up to 7.5 km from the airport, then starts to decrease beyond that threshold. This threshold can be interpreted as the point in space where positive effects start outweighing negative externalities.

Economic growth, technology, and CO2 emissions in BRICS: Investigating the non-linear impacts of economic complexity.

Upgrading economic structures and producing less pollution-intensive goods are indispensable for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) that produce 41% of global CO2 emissions. Economic complexity (ECC), which measures the sophistication of productivity and economic structure, has important environmental repercussions. Theoretically, the environmental impacts of economic complexity at higher levels and lower levels of complexity vary from each other. However, the majority of previous studies haveoverlooked these theoretical underpinnings while assessing the environmental repercussions of economic complexity. In addition, technological competencies are necessary to boost the economic complexity levels. Accordingly, this study uncovers the non-linear effects of economic complexity on CO2 emissions including technology, population density, and economic growth in a STIRPAT model. To this end, the panel data from 1992 to 2018 is analyzed using the Continuously Updated Fully Modified method (CuP-FM) in the context of BRICS. The long-run results uncovered that CO2 emissions intensify at a lower level of economic complexity. On the flip side, a higher level of economic complexity is beneficial in mitigating CO2 in BRICS. Hence, the economic complexity and CO2 connections follow an inverted U-shaped curve. The results also disclosed that expanding the level of technology lessens CO2 and stimulates the quality of the environment. Further, population density and economic growth are evidenced to intensify CO2. Moreover, economic complexity and technology Granger cause CO2. Lastly, strategies are directed in the context of Sustainable Development Goals 9 and 13 to control CO2 emissions by upgrading technology and products complexity.

Changes in Demographic Factors’ Influence on Regional Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence from China, 2000–2010

Improving total factor productivity is an important way for China’s economy to avoid the middle income trap. Demographic changes are believed to have significant impacts on productivity growth. Using the census and socioeconomic data of 358 prefecture cities in mainland China, this paper analyzes the changes in the global and local spatial dependence of total factor productivity. We then employ spatial regression methods to investigate the role of changes in population factors in productivity growth in 2000 and 2010. We draw three observations from the analysis. First, population density plays an important role in both years. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between population density and productivity growth. Second, human capital stock has a significant positive impact while human capital inequality becomes insignificant in 2010. This is likely a result of China’s education equality policies. Third, the impact of the aging of workers and their migration status on productivity growth also changed over the decade. Different cohorts of workers and migrants have had different influences on productivity growth because of their different access to higher education. The study provides important insights over how demographic factors impact China’s productivity growth.

Concrete seawalls: A review of load considerations, ecological performance, durability, and recent innovations

Increasing frequency of extreme weather events, driven by climate change, coupled with growing population densities, have contributed to an increasing demand for coastal structures to protect and stabilize shorelines. Concrete seawalls are a common category of coastal protection structures, designed with the primary objectives of absorbing wave action, preventing coastline erosion, and alleviating flooding. Much research has been carried out on improving concrete seawall performance. This work is a review of the current state-of-the-art in concrete seawalls focusing on design aspects including wave loading and innovative seawall designs, ecological considerations, and durability performance. Different conventional seawalls and their advantages and disadvantages are reviewed. Wave loads on seawalls have received significant attention; and multiple approaches for the quantification for the different types of loads are presented. However, wave load quantification remains a challenging task, especially for novel designs, and performance under load for such designs must be quantified through testing in wave tanks. Drawing inspiration from natural shorelines, modification of surface complexity at a multitude of scales can improve the otherwise poor ecological performance of seawalls. Ecological performance can also be improved by the incorporation of natural materials or structures in seawalls although the exact influence of concrete and other material chemistry on benthic diversity is unclear. The corrosion of the steel is a major durability concern, and the use of non-corrosive reinforcement can increase seawall durability toward corrosion. Other durability concerns include alkali silica reaction and sulfate attack, which can be mitigated through proper mixture design, including through the use of supplementary cementitious materials. Examples of innovative seawall designs and systems which have the capability to outperform conventional seawalls are discussed. Advances in structural design, ecological engineering, and infrastructure materials science will drive the development of multi-functional seawalls which are sustainable, durable, and resilient.