Oil Price Growth Research Articles

Oil sensitivity and systematic risk in oil-sensitive stock indices

This paper has two primary objectives. First, is to examine and compare the oil sensitivity of equity returns of non-Gulf, oil-based countries (Mexico and Norway) with that of two major oil-sensitive industries (US oil and transportation industries). Second, is to examine and compare the oil sensitivity of those returns with their sensitivity to systematic risk with respect to the world capital market. The findings suggest that the oil price growth leads the stock returns of the oil-exporting countries and the US oil-sensitive industries, with the US oil industry showing the greatest sensitivity. The results also indicate that investors view the systematic risk more importantly than the oil sensitivity in pricing those oil-sensitive returns, regardless of the direction of the world capital market.

The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and International Spillovers on Russian Financial Markets

This paper analyzes the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, there is some persistence in both bond and stock market returns. Second, we find that U.S. stock market returns Granger-cause Russian financial markets. Third, growth in oil prices has a positive effect on Russian stock market returns. Fourth, there is a significant economic and statistical influence of a specific type of news on the Russian bond market: Positive (negative) news related to the energy sector raise (lower) daily returns by one percentage point. News from the war in Chechnya, on the other hand, do not appear to have a significant influence on financial markets.

Il cambio dollaro/euro, il prezzo del petrolio e la Banca Centrale Europea (Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate, Oil Price and the European Central Bank)

In this paper an analysis on dollar/euro exchange rate, oil price and European Central Bank monetary policy is worked out. Firstly, data on the main variables related with the exchange rate and an equation to explain the variation of the exchange rate in the period March 1998-September 2000 are presented; secondly, the consequences of oil price growth and eurodevaluation on the US and European economies are taken into account; lastly, different policy strategies to stop eurodevaluation are discussed. The European Central Bank strategy, that consists of small increases of the interest rate, is not reaching any result. An alternative strategy is based on innovative public demand, that should be financed by European bonds using central bank excess funds as security. Public demand of infrastructures and new technologies should aim at reducing oil dependence and would stimulate growth and sustainable development in Europe, with positive effects on the exchange rate. JEL Codes: E58, F31 Keywords: Devaluation, Exchange Rates, Monetary