Growth In Nigeria Research Articles

A FMKL-GLD Quantile Method for Estimating Economic Growth in Nigeria in the Presence of Multicollinearity and Outlier

Nigeria’s economic growth posed to be a serious concern to policymakers, economics and scholars due to the challenges of economic characteristics, consequences and contradictions. Despite the effort made by the Central Bank of Nigeria in implementing several policies such as tightening of monetary policy rate and heavy borrowing for infrastructural development to stimulate economic growth in the past few years. The economic growth in Nigeria between 1999-2007 was 6.95 percent, between 2008-2010, it was stood 7.98 percent and it was 4.80 percent between 2011-2015 and from 2016 till day the economic growth stood at 0.81 percent. In this study, we estimate parameters to determine Nigerian economic growth in the presence of multicollinearity and outliers. We employed the FMKL-GLD quantile model to quarterly data from 1986 to 2021 obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Exploratory data analysis (EDA) and diagnostic test carried out ascertained the presence of multicollinearity and outlier. However, it was discovered that in model that INDT, RINR, REXR and OPEN contributed positively to the economic growth to the turn of 0.15%, 0.24%, 0.06% and 1.76% while, it was revealed that EXDT contributed negatively to the economic growth in Nigeria thus, reduced economic growth by 0.02% and as such showed the tendency and potential macroeconomic variables under study as a veritable determinant of economic growth. The location, scale and space parameters , , , and for the fitted FMKL-GLD model were -0.0253, 34.1488 -0.3303, and -0.5758. Therefore, it can be concluded based on the location, scale and space parameters from FMKL-FGLD and GLD Q,Q plots as well as the estimated parameter of RGDP, FMKL-FGLD was the best model that described the economic situation in Nigeria by showing that economy was growing in retrogressive direction and the need for drastic effort and strong willed to curtail the situation. To achieve this, the adoption of economic openness to the development and the growth of economy in Nigeria is a veritable policy direction that must be strictly followed.

Domestic debt, public spending and economic growth in Nigeria: a mediation analysis

Domestic debt, public spending and economic growth in Nigeria: a mediation analysis

Impact of Overseas Development Assistance on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981-2021)

Nigeria currently has the largest economy in Africa with a GDP of $477.38 billion (Michael, 2023). However, the country’s great fortune, which is majorly driven by petroleum exports, has not successfully translated into a sustained economic development, as the nation continues to endure widespread poverty and income inequality for decades due to many contributing factors, including rapid population growth, low standard of education, and corruption. Consequently, Nigeria has looked to Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) as one of many means to address its economic problems, and this ODA phenomenon has raised debates among scholars with regards to its positive or negative impact, and the significance of such impact on the Nigerian Economy. This study investigated the amount of ODA received by Nigeria for the period 1981-2021, and the changes that such assistance has effected on the GDP of the nation. The study examined the empirical research by other scholars, for the same study, under a spectrum of economic, geographic and political climates. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality test were adopted for this study, and the results revealed that ODA impacted Nigeria’s GDP significantly and positively in the period of study. This study therefore recommends that the Federal Government of Nigeria, as well as other stakeholders, should pursue and maintain more favourable relationships with the international multilateral and bilateral donors, in order to boost economic growth in Nigeria.

Economic growth in Nigeria: Effect of taxation and unemployment

Economic growth in Nigeria: Effect of taxation and unemployment

Impact of Development Bank’s Credit Financing on Small and Medium-Scale Enterprises Performance

This study examined the impact of Development Bank Credit Financing (DBCF) on the performance of small and medium enterprises, employment generation growth, financial asset growth and profit growth in Nigeria. A survey research design was employed; 398 SMEs were randomly selected from the beneficiaries of DBCF loans. Descriptive analysis was conducted, and binary logistic regression was employed to examine the impact of DBFC on SMEs. The result showed that the DBCF Amount of Credit Loan Received (ACLR) positively impacted the growth of SMEs, given their beta coefficients of 0.510 and 0.765, respectively. Their respective p-values and Wald statistics of 0.001, 0.001 and 14.050, 13.486 show their significance level. However, it was discovered that there is no significant impact of DBCF on the profit growth of SMEs in Nigeria. The average monthly tax payment (AVMTL) made by the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) was established to negatively impact on SMEs profit. The coefficient (β) = - 1.004 (100.4%) showed that a unit change in the AVMTL while holding other variables constant led to about 1.004 unit decline in the logit, SMEs profit. Specifically, it means MSMEs profit will decrease by the exact amount of what is paid as tax.

Tariff Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Tariff Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Examining the long-run relationship between stock market development and Nigerian economic growth

Purpose This paper aims to examine the long-run relationship between stock market development and Nigerian economic growth from 1980 to 2020. Design/methodology/approach Market capitalization, number of listed companies, total value traded ratio and turnover ratio are used. An autoregressive distributed lag model is used for the analysis. Findings The market capitalization ratio and turnover ratio have positively significant links with economic growth. The number of listed companies has a negative and non-significant impact on economic growth. Total value traded ratio has a negatively significant link with economic growth in the short run. The positive but insignificant relationship between traded value ratio and turnover ratio in the long run growth means that the Nigerian stock market is growth inducing and on the right track as stock market liquidity drives growth. Research limitations/implications The government and Security Exchange Commission should increase the market liquidity level by improving the trading infrastructure. The government and regulatory authorities should improve and effectively implement the existing policies that would ensure stock market growth. This facilitates the investors’ speed to purchase and sell shares. The Securities and Exchange Commission should reduce transaction costs to encourage active trading activities. The market should be diversified with investment instruments such as derivatives, futures and swap options which would limit the adverse effect of listed companies in the market. To increase the stock market liquidity, the Security and Exchange Commission should apply moral suasion to bring private companies that have met certain financial thresholds to convert to public companies. Government should improve on the legislation to encourage more private companies to list on the stock exchange. Originality/value The study findings add value in that stock market development has a positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria.

Effect of Federal Government Tax and Non-Tax Revenue on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The objective of this study was to analyse the influence of tax and non-tax revenue generated by the federal government on the economic growth of Nigeria. The study utilised an ex post facto approach and specifically examined the Nigerian economy as a whole, resulting in a population and sample size of one. Data was collected from secondary sources, including the yearly reports and statistics releases of the CBN and the office of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS). The study spanned a decade, specifically from 2001 to 2020. The hypotheses were tested using simple linear regression for data analysis. The regression study revealed a substantial influence of federal government tax income on economic growth. The F-statistic yielded a value of 466.0399, the P-Value was determined to be 0.000, and the R-squared value was calculated as 0.962813. These results indicate that about 96.28% of the variability in real GDP can be accounted for by tax revenue. Similarly, the analysis demonstrated a substantial impact of non-tax revenue from the federal government on the growth of the economy. The F-statistic yielded a value of 201.5388, the P-Value was found to be 0.000, and the R-squared value was determined to be 0.918010. These results indicate that about 91.80% of the variance in real GDP can be accounted for by non-tax revenue. Moreover, the economic growth was significantly influenced by the overall revenue of the federal government. The F-statistic yielded a value of 469.5482, indicating a strong statistical significance. The P-value was 0.000, further confirming the significance of the results. The R-squared value was 0.963081, indicating that approximately 96.31% of the fluctuation in real GDP can be accounted for by total tax revenue. These findings emphasise the essential importance of both tax and non-tax revenue, namely from the federal government, in stimulating economic growth. In order to increase revenue generation, it is crucial for the government to give priority to enhancing tax administration and compliance. This can be accomplished by implementing efficient tax regulations, streamlining tax procedures, and establishing strong monitoring and enforcement measures. Furthermore, it is advisable to diversify non-tax revenue streams beyond oil.

Digitalisation, Banking Stability and Nigeria's Economic Growth Trajectory

The integration of digital technologies in banking operations has become a cornerstone of economic policy to promote financial stability and foster economic growth. This study examines the interplay between digitalisation and banking industry stability and economic growth in Nigeria. Annual time series data spanning 1981 to 2022, except for the digitalisation variable (web payment) which covers a shorter period, was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin. Using the Least Squares estimator to analyse the multiple regression model, the study found that digitalisation and financial deepening negatively impact economic growth due to digital prematurity and financial shallowness. However, bank stability and bank assets positively influence economic growth. The study concludes that although digitalisation and financial deepening have the potential to enhance growth, as seen in studies for other nations, Nigeria’s digital maturity level is too low to propel economic growth effectively. Nonetheless, stability in the Nigerian banking industry and bank assets contribute positively to the country’s economic growth trajectory. The study suggests that banks should invest more in digital transformation to foster economic growth. Additionally, banks should provide more credit to private sector and integrate the unbanked population into formal banking processes to enhance financial deepening, which is a key driver of growth in both aspiring and regional peer countries of Nigeria. Finally, banks should continue to build a strong asset base, not only for regulatory purposes but also to leverage large assets for valuation benefits, collateral for loans, risk exposure diversity, competitive advantage, and growth opportunities.

Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria

In Nigeria, financial development has been fluctuating and has not made significant impact on economic growth as a result of inadequate credit to the private sector that is supposed to improve investment in the economy. This study therefore examines the impact of financial development on economic growth in Nigeria, covering 1986 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag model was employed and the long run result reveals that interest rate (INT), lagged value of broad money supply (M2(-1)) and domestic credit to private sector (DCP) have positive impacts on GDPG while broad money supply (M2) has a negative impact on GDPG. The short run estimate indicates that INT and DCP have positive impact on economic growth, while the coefficient of M2 has negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. In conclusion, financial development can be said to contribute to economic growth. This is because, when government allocates adequate credit to private sectors, investments are made in enhancing the productivity that will encourage investments to take place. These investments will lead to employment generation, and in turn lead to output growth. In this regard, the study recommends that the Nigerian government should increase allocation of credit to the private sector in order to improve investment and ensure the autonomy of relevant monetary authorities.

Oil Revenue, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study examined the interaction of oil revenue and institutional quality on economic growth in Nigeria over the period of 1993 - 2022. The World Development Indicator (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin were the sources of the annual time series data used in this study. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique, findings reveal that oil revenue impacts economic growth positively in the short-run but negatively in the long run, while institutional quality exhibits positive impact in both the short-run and long-run period. It was also discovered that the interaction of oil revenue and economic growth could enhance economic growth in Nigerian both in the short-run and long-run period. Access to clean fuels and technologies contributes positively to economic growth in both short-run and long-run period, while fiscal policy rating only has statistically significant positive association with economic growth in Nigeria over the observed period. This study therefore recommends the need to strengthen political institutions for effective utilization of oil revenue, and implementation of strategic diversification policies for the development of other sectors in the economy for economic prosperity in Nigeria.

Terrorism and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Terrorism has emerged as a significant threat to global security and economic stability, with Nigeria experiencing its detrimental effects. This empirical study investigated the relationship between terrorism and economic growth in Nigeria. The study focused on the impact of terrorism on productivity in Nigeria, examining various aspects including economic growth, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), manufacturing output, and other key indicators but with specific focus on economic growth. It highlighted the pervasive nature of terrorism in Nigeria, with various groups such as Boko Haram, ISIS, Fulani herdsmen, and Niger Delta militants contributing to violence and insecurity. The study reviews both empirical and theoretical literature on terrorism and its economic consequences, emphasizing the negative relationship between terrorism and economic growth. Using a positivist research paradigm, the study employed a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach to analyze the impact of terrorism on economic variables in Nigeria. The SVAR model incorporated endogenous variables such as economic growth, capital, terrorism, and trade. Data covering a 42-year period from 1980 to 2021 were utilized, and they were sourced from the World Bank and World Development Indicators. The estimation and results section includes discussions on lag length selection criteria and impulse response analyses to understand the dynamic effects of terrorism on economic variables over time. In conclusion, the study underscored the detrimental impact of terrorism on productivity and economic growth in Nigeria, highlighting the need for effective counter-terrorism measures to mitigate these effects. It provides valuable insights for policymakers and researchers aiming to address the complex challenges posed by terrorism in the country.

Effect of capital market on economic growth: An analysis using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

The limits testing method known as ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) examines Nigerian capital market improvement and monetary development. Relevant indicators about the capital market are taken into account during analysis while considering influencing factors as well. This study aims to explore the relationship between the capital market and financial development in Nigeria. The study’s theoretical framework, which is based on the ARDL framework, includes both short- and long-term dynamics. The data used in this analysis was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the World Bank database, and the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). In this study, the Nigerian All-Share Index, foreign direct investment, currency exchange rates, and inflation rates are the free factors, while the increase in GDP is the dependent factor. Through cointegration analysis using the ARDL framework, it was discovered that in Nigeria there’s a lengthy equilibrium correlation between economic expansion and financial development. The coefficients determined allow for a deeper understanding of how capital market factors affect economic growth over time. Furthermore, utilizing an error correction model derived from the ARDL analysis offers insight into both brief dynamics and modified speed toward reaching a lasting state of balance. By utilizing the ARDL approach, this study adds to the continuing discourse surrounding how capital markets impact growth in Nigeria. Its empirical evidence provides valuable knowledge for policymakers and stakeholders looking to utilize capital markets effectively toward achieving long-lasting economic development within the country.

Causal relationship between financial deepening, national security, ecological footprint, and economic growth in Nigeria

Background This study seeks to examine the causal link between financial deepening, national security, ecological footprint, and economic growth in Nigeria, in order to contribute to the contradicting evidence on economic growth drivers. Methods The dynamic ARDL model was employed as the baseline model to establish the link between the phenomena, and the FMOLS and DOLS as robust models using time series data spanning from 1995 to 2022. The FMOLS and DOLS models take into consideration the presence of endogeneity, cross-sectional dependency, and heterogeneity. Results The results demonstrate that whereas ecological footprint has positive and significant long-term relationships with economic growth, financial deepening and national security have negative and significant long-run relationships with economic growth. There was a 34% and 50% correction to the short-term to long-term adjustment speed, respectively. The findings of the Granger causality, interaction terms, marginal (ME), and threshold (TH) effects demonstrate: a) a significant bidirectional causal relationship between national security and economic growth, as well as a one-way significant causal link between financial deepening and economic growth; b) changes in national security and ecological footprint have a significant and negative impact on the financial deepening effect on economic growth; c) significant negative and marginal effects of national security on economic growth, as well as significant positive marginal effects of ecological footprints on economic growth; and d) the impact of financial deepening on economic growth becomes apparent when the increases in the marginal effect of the ecological footprint reach a critical limit over the ( TH CO 2 = 0.981) threshold. Conclusions This study highlights the significant link between Nigeria’s financial deepening, national security, ecological footprint, and economic growth. It recommends that viable policies be put in place to support the development of financial institutions, increasing security infrastructure investment, and promoting renewable energy use for sustainable environment and reduced carbon emissions.

Effect of trade openness on economic growth in Nigeria

The study investigated the effect of trade openness on economic growth in Nigeria. Time series data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin from 1990 - 2022. While balance of payment was the proxy for economic growth (the dependent variable); the proxies for the independent variable (trade openness) were import, export and broad money supply to act as control variable. The method of data analysis employed in this study includes descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and unit root test. Ordinary Least Square was used to estimate the model. The findings revealed that import has no significant effect on balance of payment; export has significant effect on balance of payment; while broad money supply has insignificant effect on balance of payment in Nigeria. The study recommends that government should encourage huge investment on infrastructure development in order generate more economic activities; reduce the cost of doing business and increase the factors that drive productivity in Nigeria; and ensure stability in the interest, exchange rate and other monetary policy tools.

Modelling the nexus between financial intermediation and economic growth in Nigeria

Modelling the nexus between financial intermediation and economic growth in Nigeria

PROBLEMS OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION AMONG FISH FARMERS AND WAY FORWARD IN RIVERS STATE, NIGERIA

This study examines the impact of private investment on economic performance in Nigeria using time series data from 1980 -2018. Multiple regression and co-integration methods are employed to analyze the data. The objectives of this study is to, among other things, examine the casual relationship between private investment and economic growth in Nigeria and to investigate the impact of private domestic investment on economic performance in Nigeria. Being a time series data, the first step is to test for the stationarity of the data by using Phillips Perron-Fuller unit root test. Ordinary least square (OLS) and Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique is used to estimate the models. The results of the unit root test show that some variables; Labour Force Participation rate (LPR), Private Domestic This study assessed problems of vertical integration among fish farmers in Rivers State, Nigeria. The paper looked at distribution of respondents’ socio-economic characteristics and problems of vertical integration among fish farmers in the study area. Data for the study was collected from 37 vertically integrated fish farmers that exist in the State. To analyze the data, collected descriptive statistics and Likert-type rating scale was used. The study revealed that the vertically integrated fish farmers were mostly within the range of 41-45 years, married having household size of 6-10 persons. The study revealed that the vertically integrated fish farmers were experienced, learned, and majored only as fish culture farmers. However, farmers complained of large capital required for starting, irregular electricity, sinking of local feed produced, poor drying of fish, and stressful activities of feed production, fingerling hatching and processing of fish. It was suggested that fish culture farmers should be provided with credit at low interest rate, up-to date knowledge in fish culture and extension services to enhance productivity.

Fiscal policy and inclusive growth in Nigeria

This study investigated the effect of fiscal policy on inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1985-2022. Secondary data on the human development index, the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP, total government expenditure, inequality, and government expenditure on infrastructure and education were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed as the main analytical tool. The ARDL Bounds test showed that in the long run, government expenditure on infrastructure, and education, has a positive and insignificant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. Also, total government expenditure and the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP have a negative and insignificant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. Interestingly, inequality has a negative and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. In the short run, the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP and government expenditure on infrastructure has a negative and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. At the same time, government expenditure on education, total government expenditure, and inequality has a positive and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. These results highlight the vital role that responsible fiscal policy management plays in promoting sustainable development and inclusive growth. The study recommended a need to augment tax revenue, enhance capital investment, and address income inequality to bolster inclusive growth efforts in the country further.

Reevaluating the linkage between trade openness and economic growth in Nigeria

This study reevaluated the linkage between trade openness and economic growth in Nigeria with data for the period of 1981 to 2022. The study employed Descriptive Statistics, Unit Root Test, Cointegration analysis, Regression Analysis (ARDL), Error Correction Model as the methods of analysis. The findings from the study showed that trade openness and external reserve impact positively and significantly on economic growth while exchange rate was found to be negative and significant. Also, findings from the error correction model showed that trade openness has a positive and insignificant impact on economic growth, external balance also has a positive significant impact on economic growth. Exchange rate on the other hand displays a negative insignificant impact on economic growth. The error correction term indicated that about 79 percent deviation in the previous year is corrected in the current year. The study therefore concluded that trade openness is a fundamental for economic growth in Nigeria and that external reserve crucial to funding of critical import necessary for domestic production. Furthermore, exchange rate of the naira showed that the economy will benefit more if the appropriate rate is prevalent in the market as this will make export to be attractive. A long run relationship was found among the variables used in the study. Based on the findings from the study we recommended that the government should engage more in international trade especially for key production inputs to boost domestic production. The government should also ensure that they maintain a healthy external reserve and ensure it is channel into the import of critical inputs. The true value of the exchange rate of the naira in relation to major currencies of the world should be targeted in order to make our exports attractive.

Liquified Natural Gas (Lng) Downstream marketing and business growth in Nigeria: An empirical evidence small and meduim scale enterprises

The study focused on the effect of Liquefied Natural Gas downstream sector marketing on business growth in Nigeria, an empirical evidence from SMEs. Specifically the study also set out to achieve the following sub objective as follows; analyze the effect of low cost strategy on the cost advantage of the selected LNG plants in the study area and ascertain the effect of market focus strategy on the sales volume of the selected LNG plants in the study area. Various research questions were raised and research hypotheses formulated. Porters Five Forces Model was adopted as the theoretical underpin for the study. The study adopted a causal survey research design. Here the opinion of the respondents was elicited through a well-structured Likert-scale type of questionnaire. This was carried out through questionnaire administration to the 400 target respondents; especially the owners, managers and employees of the selected LNG plants in the study area. Simple regression model was used to test the hypotheses which was in conformity to the study objectives with the aid of Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 22. It was found that low-cost strategy is vital towards attainment of cost advantage in the oil and gas downstream sector. The study revealed that low-cost as a competitive strategy has significant effect on the cost advantage of the selected LNG plants in Abia and Imo States, Nigeria. We also found out that from the objective two, being market focused improves the firm’s sales volume. Hence, market focus strategy has significant effect on the sales volume of the selected LNG plants in Abia and Imo State. The study recommends that the selected LNG plants in Abia and Imo States should adopt cost control and cost reduction techniques; especially by the use of outsourcing, subcontracting, and buyer-seller relationship businesses and there is also the need to adopt market focus strategies by focusing on specific group of customers in a particular market segment.