Growth In Iran Research Articles

The Effect of Government Size on Economic Freedom and Economic Growth in Iran

This paper investigates the effect of government consumption spending as a share of GDP on economic freedom in Iran. The impact of size of government on economic freedom is similar to a Armey curve which can be used to determine the optimum government size (see Barro, 1990; and Armey, 1995). This paper examines the relationship between economic freedom and size of government. Using GMM approach, the unemployment and productivity is influence on the economic freedom and according to the results growth of investment and non-oil export is positive effect on economic freedom and unemployment is negative effect on economic freedom. JEL classification: C33; H50; O40; F41

Israeli planning in the Shah's Iran: a forgotten episode

In the 1970s, while the rest of the world was undergoing recession, vast economic growth in Iran, leading to fast urbanization, generated a growing international building market in which Israeli construction firms and architects also participated, benefiting from the good bilateral relationships at the time. To examine the experience of Israeli architects working in Iran and how it influenced their professional practice, this paper focuses on two projects planned and built simultaneously by Israeli teams. The Navy project was comprised of three massive housing estates and public amenities for the Iranian Navy's troops and families on the coast of the Persian Gulf. The Eskan Towers in Tehran was a complex of residential luxury towers and a commercial centre catering for the Iranian elite. Review of these cases indicates that national knowledge was not always the basis for transnational planning, and that the international arena itself became the source of knowledge and flow. In the Navy project, the architect derived his ideas from professional practices acquired back home, while in the Eskan Towers project the team was confronted with the free-market economy and a globalized practice.

Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Iran

Always, financial sector has a central role in development and economic growth. Hence the relationship between financial development and economic growth appears to be essential. This article examines the impact of financial development on economic growth, with consider other variables affecting the economic growth, such as ratio of commercial, domestic investment and interest rate. The time period used in this study is related to the years 1980 to 2013. It also explains their method of distribution breaks (ARDL) is used to assess relationships between variables. This study estimates a relationship between variables within a Auto regressive Distributed Lag framework over the periods. The results of this study represents a significant and positive impact of financial development on economic growth. Also domestic investment has a positive and significant impact on economic growth, and Interest rate has a significant negative impact on economic growth.

Banking and Stock Markets in Iran: Are They Complements or Substitutes

In this study, the quarterly data from 1991:4 to 2011:3 have been used to investigate the effect of the relation between banking sector and stock market on economic growth in Iran. The break point obtained by Gregory and Hansen (1996) appears in the first quarter of 2005, which coincides with the period of the remarkable increase in oil and gas revenues. The results of Johansen test shows that higher export income in Iran decreases the substitution of banking and stock market. On the other hand, the relation between turnover and real output decreases after the break point. In addition, the relation between real output and the volatility is negative which reveals that the stock market volatility is a destructive factor for the economic growth. After the break point, considering bonds in the model does not change the results. However, it is a complementary relation between banking sectors and stock markets before the break point.

Causal Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran during the Years 1978 - 2011

Achieving high and stable economic growth rate of any country is important. The deleterious effects, particularly on inflation and economic growth are the major problem countries. Therefore, researchers have attempted to explain how the relationship between inflation and economic growth has been concentrated. The hypothesis of this study is two-way causal relationship between inflation and economic growth in Iran during the years 2011-1978 Co-integration test method can be applied in the study of government spending, inflation as measured by CPI indicator, investment and total population GDP as independent variables and the dependent variable is used. The results of the tests show that the model estimates the relationship between inflation and economic growth in this research is one-sided. The inflation of the economy, there is a significant negative correlation between economic growth and inflation, but the relationship does not exist.

Causal Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran during the Years 1978 - 2011

Causal Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran during the Years 1978 - 2011

The effects of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth: a case study of the Iranian economy

This study attempts to re-investigate the role of oil and non-oil exports in economic growth in Iran using the multivariate cointegration and Granger causality methods. This study covers the annual data from 1970 to 2008. Throughout this study, our empirical results indicate that the variables are cointegrated and the Granger causality test reveals evidence of uni-directional causality from oil and non-oil exports to economic growth. Therefore, we confirm that the export-led growth hypothesis is valid in Iran. However, results show that oil export has an inverse effect on economic growth, thus we suggest encouraging non-oil export activities in order to stimulate long-term economic growth in Iran.

Examining the Impact of Transportation on Economic Growth in Iran (With a Focus on Marine Transportation)

Transportation is one of the substantial components of national economy. In this regard, marine transportation plays a crucial role in national economy with a share of 90 percent of total transportation. The Iranian marine transportation share is 90 percent as well. So it needs special attention. Also, the nature of this section is so that it has an appropriate employment capacity whether direct or indirect. This research tries to survey the marine, land and air transportation in different parts of Iranian economy using the last published reports and statistics by different relevant centres given the position of this section. The underlying model used in this paper is an endogenous growth model investigating the relationship between marine transportation investment and Iran's economic growth during 1986–2009. The results of estimating the underlying endogenous model showed that the marine transportation investment growth variables had a positive and significant relationship with the country's economic growth trend. The other interesting point obtained from the estimation of this model implies a high and significant effect of oil income's growth on economic growth.

Effectiveness Comparison of Mothers’ In-person Versus Written Nutritional Education Intervention on Infant Growth in Iran

In 1990, the Iranian Ministry of Health implemented a health plan to increase mothers' knowledge of infant feeding using health workers and health volunteers. This study evaluates the effects of nutrition education on mothers' knowledge and whether increase in mothers' knowledge was associated with increase in growth of their children in Ardabil, Iran. A quasi-experimental study of the impact of written nutritional education and in-person nutritional education given to the participants (mothers) from urban health centers by health workers and health volunteers. Sixteen urban health centers located in Ardabil, Iran, were selected randomly for nutritional education. A group of 303 mothers with infants younger than 6 months of age from 16 health centers participated in this study. Height-for-age Z scores and weight-for age Z scores were calculated based on the National Center for Health Statistics reference values. There were signifi cant differences between maternal nutritional knowledge before and after the intervention in all groups. However, the in-person method of instruction given by health workers was more effective in increasing mothers' knowledge than those in non-health worker volunteers intervention group. There were also significant differences between the growth rates of infants' heights and weights before and after the intervention. In line with the aims of the government's plan, the education given by health volunteers from non-governmental organizations was effective. However, it was less effective than the one given by professional health workers.

Health care cost disease as a threat to Iranian aging society.

Because of the rapid aging rate, the share of health expenditure in gross domestic product rises irreversibly and increases concern among politicians and the general public. The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy of the Baumol's model of unbalanced growth in Iran over the period 1981-2010. This theoretical-analytical study was conducted in 2012 to investigate the various determinants of ongoing rise in the health expenditures. To this end, an Error Correction Model was derived from the long run cointegrating equation to inquire the veracity of Baumol's theory. Estimating the short run and long run equations by using time series data shows that the rate of increase in health expenditure is aligned with the difference between wage increases in and growth of productivity in the health sector. Besides, results show that both the per capita income and the inflation rate of health care had significant effects on raising the share of health sector in domestic economy. According to rapid population aging and existence of Baumol's cost disease in Iranian health sector, we predict much more rise in health expenditure in a few decades.

Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Iran: An Empirical Study

This study examines the impact of foreign trade on economic growth in Iran. Using time series data, a regression analysis was carried out using E. Views statistical software. Results showed that non-oil exports, industrial and agricultural value added positively impacted on economic growth. Imports had a negative impact on growth, while exchange rate was wrongly signed.

INFLATION, INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND GROWTH IN THE IRANIAN ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION OF BGARCH-M MODEL WITH BEKK APPROACH

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation, economic growth and their respective uncertainties in Iran for the period of 1988–2008 by using quarterly data. We employ a Bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean (BGARCH-M) model to examine in a unified empirical framework all the possible interactions between inflation uncertainty and growth in Iran. The model is simultaneously estimated by using the maximum log-likelihood method with the BEKK approach. The main findings of the present study are: (1) Inflation causes inflation uncertainty, supporting the Friedman-Ball hypothesis. (2) Inflation uncertainty affects the level of economic growth, supporting the Friedman (1977) hypothesis. (3) Growth uncertainty does not affect the level of economic growth, supporting the Friedman (1968) hypothesis. (4) And finally our empirical evidence shows that growth uncertainty affects the level of inflation, supporting the Deveraux (1989) hypothesis.

The effect of health expenditure on economic growth in Iran

In this paper, equivalence relation and long term of five variables gross domestic product growth rate, the ratio of health expenditure to GDP, the ratio of investment to GDP, population growth, growth rate of graduates and also their influences on each other in Iran from 1973-2008 were analyzed. For this purpose vector autoregressive model (VAR) was used. First, stability of variables was examined by dickey-fuller test. Next, analysis of Johnson test was done for considering the convergence among five variables. The results of this research show that variables of the ratio of health expenditure to GDP, the ratio of investment to GDP and growth rate of graduates have positive effect on growth rate. Also variable of population growth has a negative effect on growth rate. Key words: Population growth, health expenditure, gross domestic production growth rate, vector autoregressive model (VAR).

An empirical study on long-term relationship between total factor productivity and non-oil exports in Iran

Article history: Received May 18, 2013 Received in revised format 28 August 2013 Accepted 1 September 2013 Available online September 1 2013 This paper presents an empirical investigation on the effect of exports of non-oil goods and services on economic growth in Iran over the period 1991-2011 using Vector Autoregressive method. We also analyze the existing causal relationships between total factor productivity and non-oil exports. The results show that total factor productivity has direct and significant relationship with non-oil exports in long-term, it means that if total factor productivity increases, non-oil exports also increases. The results of the survey also indicate that the existing shock on non-oil exports does not have any significant impact on total factor productivity but the incoming shock on total factor productivity reduces non-oil exports during the first period. It also increases non-oil exports during the first period to the fourth period and from the fifth period; it continues until it reduces to a small amount, remains in that amount and eventually disappears.

Natural gas consumption and economic growth: Are we ready to natural gas price liberalization in Iran?

This paper examines the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Iran within a multivariate production model. We also investigate the effects of natural gas price on its consumption and economic growth using a demand side model. The paper employs bounds test approach to level relationship over the period of 1972–007. We find evidence of bidirectional positive relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in short-run and long-run, based on the production model. The findings also suggest that real GDP growth and natural gas have positive and negative impacts on gross fixed capital formation, respectively. Employment, however, was found to have negative but insignificant impact on gross fixed capital formation. Moreover, the estimation results of demand side model suggest that natural gas price has negative and significant impact on natural gas consumption only in the long-run, though there is insignificant impact on economic growth. These results imply that the Iranian government's decision for natural gas price liberalization has the adverse effects on economic growth and policy makers should be cautious in doing this policy.

Investigating the granger causality relationship between the consumption of different oil products and economic growth in Iran

In light of the recent implementation of subsidy reform plan and the elimination of subsidies for energy carrier prices and, in particular, for oil product prices in Iran, and the pressing need for providing clearer and more effective policy guidelines to help advance the plan, the present study is an attempt to explore the relationship between the consumption of different oil products and economic growth. This study primarily seeks to determine whether a Granger causality relationship exists between the consumption of different oil products and economic growth. And, if so, is it unidirectional or bidirectional? To answer the above questions, the author has applied vector autoregressive and vector error correction model (VECM), using quarterly data from 1988 to 2008. The results indicate that, in short-run, none of oil products consumption stimulates economic growth. But the economic growth Granger causes the consumption of gas oil and gasoline. There is also a weak Granger causality from economic growth to consumption of fuel oil and kerosene. There is no relationship between economic growths and liquid gas. In the long run, there exist a two-way Granger causality relationship between fuel oil consumption and economic growth and a one-way Granger causality relationship from economic growth to the consumption of gas oil and, there is not any relationship between the consumption of other products and economic growth. The results suggest that the reduction of oil products consumption (except fuel oil consumption), due to price increases resulting from removal of subsidies, will not negatively affect the economic growth and, hence, we can pursue the subsidy reform plan on oil products without decelerating economic growth.

Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Iran

This paper examines causal relationships between Government Recurrent Expenditure (GRE) and GDP for Iran using annual data over the period 1970-2010. The Gregory-Hansen (1996) cointegration technique, allowing for the presence of potential structural breaks in data, is applied to empirically examine the long-run co-movement between these variables. The results suggest that there is a long-run relationship between these variables. The Granger Causality test indicates strong unidirectional effects from GDP to GRE. But there is no evidence that TRE promotes long-term economic growth. Moreover, the main results in this paper confirm that there is an instantaneous as well as unidirectional causal link running from GDP to GRE. Based on the results, the policy makers should ensure that recurrent expenditures are properly managed to accelerate economic growth. Moreover, government should promote efficiency in the allocation of resources by encouraging more private sector participation to ensure productivity-intensive growth.

Contemporary remarkable scientific growth in Iran: House of Wisdom will rise again

Contemporary remarkable scientific growth in Iran: House of Wisdom will rise again

Trade liberalization, financial development and economic growth in the long term: The case of Iran

This study seeks to empirically analysis the joint impact of trade liberalization and financial development on economic growth in Iran, using endogenous growth theory during the period 1966-2010. In this article principal component analysis is applied to make better indexes for trade liberalization, financial development and the joint effects of both. The empirical findings obtained from Johansen co-integration procedure signify a positive relationship between trade liberalization, financial development and the joint impact on economic growth in Iran.

Is Cointegration between Oil Price and Economic Growth? Case Study Iran

This paper seeks to investigate the causal relationship between oil prices and economic growth in Iran over a period from 1980 to 2010. The empirical analysis starts by analyzing the time series properties of the data which is followed by examining the nature of causality among the variables. Iran is oil producing rather oil-importing country. Contrary to the results of some previous studies, our results show that oil price is not Granger-causes for economic growth. Results show that neutral effect of oil price on economic growth as such the significance for error-correction term is not statistically supported. Given the natural effect of oil prices on economic growth and the fact that Iran has adopted economic growth targeting as its policy anchor, we recommend tha t monetary policies should be relaxed during the global oil price shocks in order to protect the country from any possible outcome of a full-blown stagflation scenario. Our results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short-run or in the long-run.