Growth In Iran Research Articles

The Effect of Non-Renewable Natural Resources on Regulatory Quality and Economic Growth in Iran

The Effect of Non-Renewable Natural Resources on Regulatory Quality and Economic Growth in Iran

On the role of government spending, trade openness and terms of trade in Iran's agricultural growth.

Agriculture is recognized as the driving force of economic growth, especially in developing economies. It plays a crucial role in Iran's economy especially during economic sanctions as it is a source of income for rural people, food security, job creation, and foreign exchange earnings. The present study investigates the impact of government spending, trade openness, and terms of trade on agricultural growth in Iran using annual data for the period 1978-2021 by application of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The results confirmed asymmetry in the impact of all three variables of interest on agricultural growth. In other words, the superiority of the nonlinear specification in explaining the relationships between variables was confirmed. To be specific, a positive and negative shock to government spending affects sector growth by 0.18 and -0.05 percent, respectively in the long run. The same finding was found for trade openness with 0.22 and -0.11 impact coefficients for positive and negative shocks, respectively. Moreover, we could not find significant impact for terms of trade.

A Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling Analysis of the Primary Barriers to Sustainable Construction in Iran

This paper outlines the obstacles to sustainable construction growth in Iran and thereafter examines the effect and relation between these barriers and the direction of sustainable construction growth as one of the essential objectives for achieving sustainable cities and infrastructure. The study is applied for research purposes that are based on descriptive survey data gathering and correlational data analysis techniques. The statistical population for this study consists of 120 construction-related engineers and university professors who were assessed on a five-point Likert scale. Using SmartPLS software version 4, the responses to the questionnaire were examined. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov assessment was utilized to evaluate the normalcy of the variables, as this assessment is typically employed for this purpose. For data analysis, the PLS (partial least squares) method was used, while SEM (structural equation modeling) methods have been used to assess the study hypotheses. Cronbach’s alpha and the composite reliability coefficient (CR) were applied to determine the instrument’s viability, and the results show that the coefficient connected to all variables is above 7.0, which is an acceptable value. The AVE (average variance extracted) was also used to evaluate the questionnaire’s validity, which was greater than 0.4 and deemed acceptable for coefficients of significance (T-values), coefficient of predictive power (Q2), and coefficient of determination (R2). The obtained results support and confirm all research hypotheses, including that the identified obstacles directly affect the performance of sustainable construction. According to the results of the Friedman test, the legal restrictions variable (CL) is the most significant obstacle to sustainable construction in Iran, with a rank of 4.24. The indicators of political limits (CP) and social and cultural constraints (CSC) came in at second and third, respectively. The results could help government officials make better decisions about where to focus their attention and how to distribute scarce resources.

The Nexus between Energy Consumption Shocks and Economic Growth

This paper examines the nexus between economic growth and energy consumption shock, over the period 1990-2020, in Iran. We employ a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) with new prior functions, which will give results more acceptable consequences than the classical methods to study these relationships. This study estimates the relationship between energy consumption shocks and economic growth within a multivariate BVAR framework by including gross capital formation, Labor and carbon dioxide emission. The multivariate impulse responses to shocks in all the variables are obtained. The results show that, there is a positive impact of energy consumption shocks on economic growth in Iran and this means that energy consumption is crucial for economic growth. Also, the responses of economic growth to one-unit shock of gross capital formation and labor force are positive and the responses of economic growth to the one-unit shock of carbon dioxide emission is are negative.

A Review of Iran's Developmental Challenges in the Contemporary International System: A Non-Iranian Perspective

This research looked at the hurdles to Iran's growth plans in the modern world political economy. The data for this study was gathered from secondary sources such as textbooks, magazine articles, and online sources, and the data was analysed using content analysis. According to this study, Iran has been plagued by violent strife for many years. Furthermore, the mistaken economic policies of earlier Iranian leaders, as well as a reluctance to open the economy to international investors, have contributed to the country's economic stagnation throughout the years. Finally, this study suggests, among other things, that a total shutdown of the Iranian economy in the current global economy will continue to deprive Iran of the myriad economic gains associated with globalisation.
 
 Received: 11 October 2022 / Accepted: 30 December 2022 / Published: 5 January 2023

Using A Study of the Social Challenges of Urbanization in the Next 30 Years based on Age Transition and Comprehensive Plans for Iranian Cities: The Case of Hamedan City

An examination of population growth in Iran during the past three decades shows that the sharp increase in the rate of birth in the 1980s significantly expanded the base of the age pyramid of the Iranian population in that decade. Throughout time, this expanded surface has gradually transitioned to the higher levels of the pyramid and has now reached the age group of 25-29 and will soon reach the age group of 20-24, two age groups that form 1/4 of Iran’s population. Considering this and the expansion of urbanization in recent years, elderly citizens will constitute a large part of Iran’s urban population in the next 30 years. An urban elderly population has special needs and requires special social spaces. But a closer look at the comprehensive plans proposed for Iranian cities, which often have been prepared with the next 20 years in mind, shows that most of the government’s policies and plans in cities involve the needs of the younger generation. In other words, the current status of Iranian cities and the proposed plans will not meet the needs of the elderly in the coming decades. Using documentary research and analysis of the contemporary structural maps of Hamedan City, this study examined the urbanization challenges resulting from age transition in 2041 to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) efficient requirements in quality-of-life. The findings indicate that Hamedan’s current form and its urban development plans have fundamental flaws because of inattention to the phenomenon of age transition based on United Nations (UN) policies in the determination of land uses and accessibility to public spaces for elderly citizens and this creates social challenges in the city.

The Effect of Tax Structure on Economic Growth in Iran

The Effect of Tax Structure on Economic Growth in Iran

Investigating the nonlinear effect of market-oriented financial development on economic growth in Iran: Markov-switching approach

Investigating the nonlinear effect of market-oriented financial development on economic growth in Iran: Markov-switching approach

Domestic violence experienced by women with multiple sclerosis: a study from the North-East of Iran

IntroductionViolence against women is a significant health and legal problem and has been declared as a health priority by the World Health Organization. The most common type of violence against women is domestic violence, more prevalent against women with disabilities than other women. Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a debilitating neurological disease and has experienced sudden growth in Iran. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of domestic violence and its various types (psychological, economic, physical, and sexual) experienced by women with MS.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, 275 married women with MS were selected using convenience sampling. After obtaining informed consent and reviewing the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the Domestic Violence against Women Questionnaire developed by Mohseni Tabrizi et al. was completed by the participants on a self-report basis. The results were analyzed using SPSS software version 16. To analyze data, statistical tests including chi-square and Fisher exact tests for univariate analysis and logistic regression, were employed.ResultsThe mean age of participants was 37.12 ± 8.48 years. Domestic violence in different forms of psychological, economic, physical, and sexual violence was present in 53.1%, 63%, 33.6%, and 20.4% of participants, respectively. Economic violence (33.8%) was the highest, and sexual violence (5.1%) was the lowest rate of severe violence among participants. There was a significant relationship between the overall rate of domestic violence and the variables including income (P = 0.013), spouse’s income (P = 0.001), participant’s job (P = 0.036) and participant’s education (P = 0.001). In logistic regression, the overall rate of domestic violence was higher in participants with education less than a diploma than in participants with a diploma (P = 0.014) and participants with a university education (P = 0.016).ConclusionAccording to the results, providing opportunities such as promoting the social status of women, fulfilling the rights of women with disabilities and debilitating diseases such as MS in society is recommended. Additionally, educating men about the negative impact of domestic violence on the current and future status of the family seems necessary. Providing counseling facilities on various forms of violence, especially domestic violence, for women with MS, is also recommended.

An investigation of the relationship among economic growth, agricultural expansion and chemical pollution in Iran through decoupling index analysis.

Due to the significant role of agricultural chemicals in increasing agricultural production and ensuring food security, the excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides has been intensified in Iran. These chemical inputs are important environmental pollutants that threaten human health. In the recent years, in agricultural sector, the balance between the growth of agricultural economy and the spread of pollution in Iran has been one of the major challenges. In this regard, the use of decoupling index to decouple the link between agricultural production and pollution caused by the consumption of chemical inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides, has been emphasized; Therefore, in the present study, the decoupling index first is calculated in relation to the emission of pollution caused by the use of chemical inputs in the process of agricultural production during the period of 1991-2016 in Iran. Then, by reviewing the existing literature systematically, the factors affecting the decoupling index in the agricultural sector of Iran are evaluated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results showed that in the recent years, pollution indicators in relation to chemical inputs have not had ideal trends, and despite the further growth of agricultural production, the quality of the environment has experienced a declining trend. The results of the decoupling index related to the use of chemical pesticides and fertilizers in Iran show that during a period of 26-year, only 5 and 4years of using these inputs have had a sustainable state compared to the production growth; besides, a strong negative decoupling state occurred as the most unsustainable state in relation to chemical fertilizer for 7years. Moreover, among the factors affecting the decoupling index, the value-added variable of the agricultural sector has had the most positive effect on this index, and thus, in the long run, it increases the level of pollution in the agricultural sector. The variables of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the area under cereal cultivation in the agricultural sector would also increase the decoupling index. Accordingly, adopting effective strategies to improve resource efficiency, planning for the implementation of biotechnological methods, and doing investment for creating green infrastructure in the agricultural sector can be effective in the ideal decoupling of pollution and agricultural economy growth in Iran.

Estimation of the basic reproduction number of Alpha and Delta variants of COVID-19 pandemic in Iran.

Estimating the basic reproduction number of a pandemic and the changes that appear on this value over time provide a good understanding of the contagious nature of the virus and efficiency of the controlling strategies. In this paper, we focus on studying the basic reproduction number (R0) for two important variants of COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: Alpha and Delta variants. We use four different methods, three statistical models and one mathematical model, to compute R0: Exponential Growth Rate (EGR), Maximum Likelihood (ML), Sequential Bayesian (SB), and time-dependent SIR model. Alpha variant of COVID-19 was active in Iran from March 10, 2021 until June 10, 2021. Our computations indicate that total R0 of this variant according to EGR, ML, SB, and SIR model is respectively 0.9999 (95% CI: 0.9994-1), 1.046 (95% CI: 1.044-1.049), 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.08), and 2.79 (95% CI: 2.77-2.81) in the whole active time interval. Moreover, during the time interval from April 3, 2021 to April 9, 2021 in which this variant was in its exponential growth in Iran, R0 of Alpha variant in Iran according to SB, EGR, ML, and SIR model is respectively 2.26 (95% CI: 2.04-2.49), 2.64 (95% CI: 2.58-2.7), 11.38 (95% CI: 11.28-11.48), and 12.13 (95% CI: 12.12-12.14). Delta variant was active in Iran during the time interval from June 22, 2021 until September 22, 2021. Our computations show that during the time interval from July 3, 2021 to July 8, 2021 in which this variant was in its exponential growth in Iran, R0 of Delta variant in Iran according to SB, EGR, ML, and SIR model is respectively 3 (95% CI: 2.34-3.66), 3.1 (95% CI: 3.02-3.17), 12 (95% CI: 11.89-12.12), and 23.3 (95% CI: 23.19-23.41). Further, total R0 of Delta variant in Iran in the whole active time interval according to EGR, ML, SB, and SIR model is respectively 1.042 (95% CI: 1.04-1.043), 1.053 (95% CI: 1.051-1.055), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.63-0.95), and 5.65 (95% CI: 5.6-5.7). As the results show Delta variant was more severe than Alpha variant in Iran. Chasing the changes in R0 during each variant shows that the controlling strategies applied were effective in controlling the virus spread.

Investigating the effect of demographic changes and human capital on economic growth in Iran

Investigating the effect of demographic changes and human capital on economic growth in Iran

Investigating the Effect of the Oil Curse on the Creation of a Rentier Government and the Reduction of Economic Growth in Iran

In this article, we will examine the category of the oil curse; how it affected Iranian revolution in 1979, and then the change of a royal system to an Islamic Republic system and its growth and maturity in the form of a corrupt system in the Islamic Republic of Iran (I.R. Iran) regime. In other word, the experience of the Pahlavi royal system (1979-1925) after the third and fourth periods of development plans (1962-1968) (1968-1972), and at the beginning of the fifth period of development plan (1973-1979) after suffering from the curse of oil due to the increase in income from The increase in the world price of oil, which was obtained due to the defeat of the Arabs in the Yom Kippur War and then the global embargo of oil by the Arabs.

Long-Run Growth of IRAN's Economy from the Lens of Export-Led Growth Model (Application of the Time-Varing Approach)

Long-Run Growth of IRAN's Economy from the Lens of Export-Led Growth Model (Application of the Time-Varing Approach)

The Effect of Labor Force Education in Health Sector on Economic Growth of Iran

The Effect of Labor Force Education in Health Sector on Economic Growth of Iran

Water resources sustainability under climate variability and population growth in Iran: A system dynamics approach

The change in availability of water resources has a dynamic behavior and is influenced by many factors such as population growth and climate variability over time. Understanding the impacts of such factors on water resources vulnerability is essential for ensuring the sustainability of future water resources. In this study, a water resources sustainable index is built using a system dynamics model to assess the effects of different scenarios at the Kowsar dam basin in southwestern Iran where managing water resources is serious challenging due to periodic drought. Based on the baseline scenario, the total population, as well as total water demand, will increase and water supply will decrease throughout the simulated period. Therefore, the imbalanced supply-demand of water can cause the water system vulnerable. In this regard, water management policies should concentrate on the demand side of water to address the problem of water resource shortage in a good manner. Although pessimistic climatic conditions along with population growth put the water system in the worse situation of water availability, where the demand control policies likely help meet the increasing water demand. Compared to the pessimistic conditions, the water sustainability index improves in normal and optimistic conditions. The highest sustainability index was obtained after controlling water demand in optimistic weather condition. Consequently, the government should provide a context in which people learn to control their daily water consumption. Also, it suggests that we can conserve water resources in the agricultural sector with conservation policies.

بررسی و نقد کتاب “Inclusive Growth in Iran’s provinces: Policies and Indicators” (رشد فراگیر در استانهای ایران: سیاستها و شاخصها)

Achieving continuous economic growth has been and is one of the focal points in policy-making. This issue is mostly studied using economic growth models and approaches. One of the newest approaches to economic growth is pro-poor growth and subsequently the inclusive growth. These two approaches were offered when it was observed that poor people do not enjoy the benefits of economic growth comparing to other sections of society. One of the books published in this field is the book Inclusive Growth in the Provinces of Iran: Policies and Indicators, the review and critique of which is on the agenda of this article and meanwhile attempts are made to provide suggestions for improving the content of the book in future editions. The findings of the book indicate that economic growth in Iran has been low in recent years and at the same time labor force participation has played an effective and significant role in the overall growth in the provinces. However, government policies that could have played an effective role in reducing poverty and inequality in the provinces have not been very successful in practice. In conclusion, it seems that moving toward inclusive growth requires the design and implementation of a coherent policy package from different dimensions.

Spatial-geographical analysis of urbanization in Iran

The development of urbanization and urbanism in Iran has created a wide socioeconomic gap in urban areas. Rapid population growth along with the lack of socioeconomic growth programs and urban development strategies have deteriorated unemployment, inflation, housing price, traffic congestion, and marginalization in cities, particularly in metropolises of Iran. This paper, using a descriptive-analytic research method and a meta-analysis technique, addresses the urbanization and urbanism changes in Iran. Using GIS technique and CV formula, the spatial distribution of urbanization and its rapid growth in Iran are depicted. The research data was derived from a systematic review of documents and techniques over 40 years. The results of the study demonstrated that Iranian cities have undergone an unsustainable growth trend and urbanization has overtaken urbanism. Over the past 4 decades, cities have been struggling with rapid growth and development. In this regard, development-oriented governments can play a significant role in tackling growth and urbanization problems. These problems are especially evident in the socio-economic, urban planning and urban ecology. The rapid growth of urbanization (74% in 2016) has resulted in the emergence of metropolitan areas in an unstable process. Also, in metropolitan areas of Iran, environmental and ecological threats, rural–urban migration and marginalization have posed serious national–regional and local challenges. The structural–functional reforms in Iran, along with skeletal–spatial and socio-economic changes in cities, have given rise to a new social class (low-income people), which is characterized with non-formal businesses and informal settlements in the outskirts of cities, especially metropolitan areas. This has prompted unsustainability in main indicators of urban development such as security, building density, environmental threats, and centralization, among other things. This analysis is based on indicators such as density and centralization, informal settlement, and urban security.

Investigating the factors affecting the ecological well-being performance in Iran from 1994 to 2014

In this study, the factors affecting the index of ecological well-being performance (IEWP) in Iran were investigated from 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, the long- and short-run relationships between IEWP and per capita GDP as the indicator of economic growth, energy consumption per capita, and the population were analyzed. In addition, the well-known Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology framework was used. The empirical model was evaluated by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The ARDL bounds test was employed to investigate the long-run relationships. The results indicated the existence of a long-run relationship and cointegration. The empirical results also revealed that the relationship between economic growth and IEWP is positive and statistically significant. This indicated that Iran is located in the first stage of development. According to the empirical results, energy consumption has reduced IEWP. Therefore, the energy consumption in Iran is ecologically inefficient in improving human well-being in the short and long run. Moreover, the impact of the population is negative on IEWP and statistically significant in the short and long run. As a result, the population growth in Iran contributes to more environmental degradation and pollution. Hence, energy consumption and population development policies must align with the reduction in environmental pollution.

Translation and Adaptation of the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory-Short Form into Persian

Purpose: Traumatic events and psychological damage are common, and the assessment of the growth in survivors of these events is critical. This study evaluated the psychometric properties of the Persian Posttraumatic Growth Inventory-Short Form (PTGI-SF). Methods: This study was conducted in five phases: (1) forward and backward translation of the questionnaire based on the WHO protocol, (2) confirmatory factor analysis to assess construct validity with 563 participations (288 women and 275 men), aged 19-84 years (mean: 33.36 years), (3) Cronbach's alpha for internal consistency, (4) correlations with the Persian version of the Duke University Religion Index (DUREL) for assessing criterion-related validity, and (5) measurement of invariance across genders. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis supported the five-factor model consisting of relating to others, new possibilities, personal strength, spiritual change, and appreciation of life. All the dimensions of the PTGI-SF were moderately associated with the Persian version of the DUREL. The internal reliability of the subscales and full scale of the PTGI-SF were acceptable to satisfactory, and the configural, metric, and scalar invariance was found across genders. Conclusion: The Persian version of PTGI-SF is an acceptable, valid, and reliable tool for measuring posttraumatic growth in Iran.