Growth Of Gross National Product Research Articles

Strategy of National and Economic Security

The recent events related to the crisis of political power in a number of states in the post-Soviet space and the desire of their governments to destroy the established economic ties with the Russian Federation lead to local sectoral crises, inflation and a slowdown in the growth of gross national product. Objective requirements for changing economic processes in the direction of stabilizing the socio-political situation dictate to the leaders of various levels (federal, regional, municipal and commercial), among the strategic tasks, the need to develop and apply an effective set of tools and methods for managing socio-economic systems in all phases and stages of functioning of the national economic complex. The solution of such problems, first of all, involves the formalization and specification of factors related to the economy that can have a negative impact on critical infrastructure, sectors of the economy and processes that are vital for the sustainable functioning of the state. The foregoing determined the purpose of the study — to analyze the concept of national security and build a conceptual structure of risk vectors that have a significant impact on the critical infrastructure necessary for the formation of a country's accelerated development strategy (search and justification of points and poles of national economic growth). In the process of work, the most important processes, from the standpoint of national and economic security, have been formalized that ensure comfortable and safe living conditions for citizens on the territory of the country; the essence of the main, from the point of view of the authors, external and internal risk factors that directly affect both the growth of the economy and the stabilization of relations in society is considered. In order to minimize negative factors, it is proposed to develop a long-term strategy for the rapid development of the national economy with a clear formalization of specific final goals (measurable and achievable) using, as a tool for developing an effective system of interactions, digital twins of control objects. As a methodological basis, it is proposed to use the strategizing methodology of academician V.L. Kvint.

Fatores de sucesso no contexto das PME: um estudo empírico realizado em Portugal

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are considered important for economies’ growth and stability, as they contribute to job creation, the growth of Gross National Product and tax revenue. It is therefore essential to determine the factors contributing to their success. After carrying out a review of the literature on the subject, there is clearly no consensus on the factors leading to SME success. Therefore, an empirical study was made based on a questionnaire applied to a sample of Portuguese SMEs of excellence. The results obtained revealed the factors contributing least to SME success: (1) academic qualifications, (2) the gender of the founder(s) and (3) exporting orientation. Indeed, SMEs are aware that their success depends above all on maintaining good relationships with clients and on the quality of their products and/or services. Some implications for business practice are also suggested

Upravljanje privatnim bogatstvom - slučaj Republike Srbije

Today's challenges of wealth management can be noticed by its dynamic competition, fees, stricter regulation and ever-growing needs of clients. These challenges affect responses of interest groups, which consequently promotes critical trends of consumer needs, new technology, changes in advisory models and safety. Clients' growing insight into financial planning is only demanding greater digital possibilities and better advisory options. In regard to the rapid evolution of technology, companies are forced to quickly improve their respective offers for clients. For a very long time, wealth management was only possible in well-developed countries, and their citizens were in a position to be provided with advice regarding wealth management. This branch has lesser significance in countries in transition, since such countries are less wealthy. However, as a result of globalization and the huge growth of gross national product this situation is slowly improving, in spite of financial destabilization and slower economic development. Amidst changes in the allocation of wealth and relative significance of different markets, parameters for the wealth market are changing. The topic of this essay will elaborate on private wealth management in our country. Also, wealth management models will be touched upon, which ones were applied in the past, like the ones that are being used today. Possible improvements of the same will be discussed as well. In our country, the term management of private wealth is still largely unknown. Considering the place that Serbia takes, it is necessary to take measures to improve the indicators, with the aim of improving its position on this list for managers of private equity management. Theoretical and molecular methods have been used in this paper, and the purpose of this work is to present the management of wealth in general, with particular reference to the Republic of Serbia.

Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty

AbstractA large number of models have been developed in the literature to analyze and forecast changes in output dynamics. The objective of this paper was to compare the predictive ability of univariate and bivariate models, in terms of forecasting US gross national product (GNP) growth at different forecasting horizons, with the bivariate models containing information on a measure of economic uncertainty. Based on point and density forecast accuracy measures, as well as on equal predictive ability (EPA) and superior predictive ability (SPA) tests, we evaluate the relative forecasting performance of different model specifications over the quarterly period of 1919:Q2 until 2014:Q4. We find that the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index should improve the accuracy of US GNP growth forecasts in bivariate models. We also find that the EPU exhibits similar forecasting ability to the term spread and outperforms other uncertainty measures such as the volatility index and geopolitical risk in predicting US recessions. While the Markov switching time‐varying parameter vector autoregressive model yields the lowest values for the root mean squared error in most cases, we observe relatively low values for the log predictive density score, when using the Bayesian vector regression model with stochastic volatility. More importantly, our results highlight the importance of uncertainty in forecasting US GNP growth rates.

Population and development: lessons from the Japanese Meiji experience revisited.

The model developed in this study is of a long-run supply-oriented nature consisting of economic and demographic components. The study demonstrates that the economic structure observed at the take-off stage of Japans development is different from that in operation at present in the developing regions of Asia. The simulation results indicate that population growth patterns of Japans early development period contributed to a faster growth of gross national product per capita than that in developing countries in contemporary Asia. In the 30-year period of simulation the GNP per capita is almost 43% higher than that derived from the model representing the developing countries. The primary source of the uniqueness of Japans demographic changes in her early development stage is the improvement in mortality reflecting the fact that while Meiji Japan experienced a gradual decline in mortality which accompanied its economic development mortality declines in contemporary developing countries have been induced by modern medical technology and public health measures imported from developed countries. It was also found that the mechanism of fertility reduction observed in Meiji Japan is comparable to that in operation in the developing countries in Asia. Further research on the fertility mechanism in the early stages of Japans economic development may lead to results useful to the formulation of effective fertility policies in Asias developing nations.

ОСНОВНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ РАЗВИТИЯ МАЛЫХ ИННОВАЦИОННЫХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ В БРЯНСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Innovative activity can be defined as a scientific and technical progress direction, and as the process connected with introducing the results of research and development in production. Russian economy devel-opment is based on the use of intellectual resource pro-viding maximum efficiency of production at the mini-mum level of material inputs. The small commercial enterprises carrying out active innovative activity al-lowing them to create new products and technologies with the minimum expenses play a key role. Recently the importance of innovations increases in the world. The state plays a crucial role in innovative activity development in Russia developing and realizing actions for the support of innovatively active enterprises. In the international practice, small business in market economy is the leading sector of economy, defining rates of its economic growth, structure and quality of GNP (gross national product). Experience of many small innovative enterprises functioning at higher education institutions has shown that their development will be successful only in case of coincidence of national objectives with interests of higher education institution, the management of the enterprise and its employees. Small innovative enterprises requires state support which is carried out in such forms as: creation of investment institutes; holding competitions of innovative projects and works leading to the development of innovative activity of the educational and research organizations, and business in general.

‘Dog Days’ Full Employment without Depreciation: Can It Be Done?

‘Dog Days’ Full Employment without Depreciation: Can It Be Done?

Vive Digital: Colombia's Own Approach to Transforming Its Broadband Ecosystem

Many countries have embarked on expansion of their broadband infrastructure following international trends and claims that positively correlate growth in gross national product with growth in the number of broadband accesses. Colombia has adopted an idiosyncratic approach to reduce disparity in broadband access to avoid repeating the existing inequalities in the fixed-line market between large urban centers and small, remote areas. This paper analyses the rationale for Colombia’s “Vive Digital”, the government plan for broadband expansion and other ICT-related initiatives. In particular, it examines the development of the public–private partnership that currently expands the country’s broadband capacity through the build-up of a fiber-based backbone, the proposed modifications to spectrum designation, the future 4G auction process, and the goals of the plan to improve the provision of electronically mediated services. Finally, we question the potential of the mechanisms employed to solidify the so-called “broadband ecosystem”. Conclusions put in perspective the dual role of the government in incentivizing the supply side of the broadband market and in subsidizing its demand side.

Legal Reform Project, Access to Justice and Gender Equity in Indonesia

This article is to discuss the impact of legal reform project between Indonesian and Australian government in assisting women, the poor and those living in remote areas to access the judiciary in Indonesia. Through the program access to the Religious Courts for divorce cases, for example, women are able to document their role as female heads of household. The document is necessary to facilitate access to the Indonesian Government pro-poor programs such as cash transfers, free health treatment, subsidized rice or enrollment of children at state schools. This article argues that the access to justice program in Religious Courts has positive impacts on gender equity development in Indonesia. This argument is based on Amartya Sen’s conception of development that must go well beyond “the accumulation of wealth and the growth of gross national product and other income-related variables.” Thus, the process of development is really all about removing “the unfreedoms” from which the members of society may suffer. Access to the Religious Courts program for women, the poor and marginalized groups, which was initially supported by the Australian Government through its agencies, has “opened” Indonesian government mind on how to address obstacles in removing “the unfreedoms” of gender discrimination caused by the family laws.

Legal Reform Project, Access to Justice and Gender Equity in Indonesia

This article is to discuss the impact of legal reform project between Indonesian and Australian government in assisting women, the poor and those living in remote areas to access the judiciary in Indonesia. Through the program access to the Religious Courts for divorce cases, for example, women are able to document their role as female heads of household. The document is necessary to facilitate access to the Indonesian Government pro-poor programs such as cash transfers, free health treatment, subsidized rice or enrolment of children at state schools. This article argues that the access to justice program in Religious Courts has positive impacts on gender equity development in Indonesia. This argument is based on AmartyaSen’s conception of development that must go well beyond “the accumulation of wealth and the growth of gross national product and other income-related variables.” Thus, the process of development is really all about removing “the unfreedoms” from which the members of society may suffer. Access to the Religious Courts program for women, the poor and marginalized groups, which was initially supported by the Australian Government through its agencies, has “opened” Indonesian government mind on how to address obstacles in removing “the unfreedoms” of gender discrimination caused by the family laws.

Did Leaving the Gold Standard Tame the Business Cycle? Evidence from NBER Reference Dates and Real GNP

Cover and Pecorino (2005) claim that the March 1933 departure from the gold standard is the most probable break point ushering in an era of longer U.S. expansions, both absolutely and relative to subsequent recessions. Their analysis is based on cycle durations as defined by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reference dates. However, much of macroeconomic analysis is based on (i) growth cycles (i.e., periods when the economy's production is above or below trend) rather than absolute increases or decreases in economic activity; and (ii) aggregate time series' volatility as the prime indicator of macroeconomic stability. In light of this, we reevaluate the March 1933 break point. First, using HP‐filtered quarterly gross national product (GNP), our analysis of growth cycle durations still implies a break point near 1933. Second, we test for structural breaks in the volatility of GNP growth rates and deviations from trends. These tests suggest a structural break considerably later than 1933, perhaps as late as the 1950s.

Energy and GDP growth

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the growth in energy use and the growth of gross national product (GDP) 1950‐2004. How closely are the two related? Does this relationship vary in strength between rich and poor countries, between market economies and centrally planned economies, and between oil exporting and oil importing nations? Does its strength depend on the price of oil?Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses linear regression of the growth rate in energy use on the growth rate in GDP for 171 countries, GDP per capita, and the price of oil, run for all 171 countries and for subsets of rich, medium rich and poor countries, market economies versus centrally planned economies, and oil exporting versus oil importing countries.FindingsThere is a significant positive relationship between growth in energy use and growth in GDP for all countries taken together and for all subsets of countries, although not necessarily proportional. There is some indication that growth in energy use declines with GDP per capita, for any given growth in GDP. There is a significantly negative relationship between the price of oil and the growth in energy use for all countries taken together and for all subsets of countries, except for planned economies and for oil exporting countries.Research limitations/implicationsGiven that most of the world's primary energy comes from fossil fuels, it is going to be very difficult to reconcile reductions in carbon dioxide emissions with continued economic growth, especially in poor and medium rich countries.Originality/valueThere are few if any studies which have considered the relationship between energy use and GDP growth for such a large sample of countries, stretching as far back as to 1950 for the countries for which data are available for such a long period.

Impact of EU FDI on economic growth in Middle Eastern countries

This paper develops a simultaneous equations model to test the process of interaction between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports and economic growth in three Middle Eastern countries: Egypt, Jordan and Oman, and tests for any possible feedback effects. Most of the FDI in these countries flows from the European Union. The simultaneous equations model results suggest that higher rates of economic growth result in a greater inflow of foreign capital. The regression results also suggest that interest rate differentials exert a much stronger effect than economic growth on the attraction of foreign capital in the case of Egypt. However, this variable does not seem to play a significant role in the case of Oman. Moreover, the simultaneous equations model results suggest that there is a feedback effect in the relationship between economic growth and capital inflow in all sample countries. A greater inflow of foreign capital leads to growth in the exports of good and services. The expansion in exports leads to growth in gross national product that, in turn, encourages the attraction of more foreign capital.

Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom

The set of contemporary economists whose writings consistently display an admirable ability to combine the insights of economics, philosophy, and political science is indeed very small. Amartya Sen is one of the preeminent members of this small set. Beginning with Collective Choice and Social Welfare in 1970, Sen has repeatedly demonstrated an uncanny ability to analyze social problems from a multi-faceted perspective that eschews narrow, self-interest based explanations. Development as Freedom is no different. Sen uses the twelve chapters of this book to provide a rather compelling, human freedom based account of the nature of contemporary economic development. In my review, I shall first focus on five of the book’s twelve chapters and then conclude with some general comments about this book. Chapter 1 begins the proceedings by pointing out that any meaningful conception of development must go well beyond “the accumulation of wealth and the growth of gross national product and other income-related variables” (p. 14). This is salient not only because wealth is a means to an end, but also because the process of development is really all about removing what Sen calls “the unfreedoms” from which the members of a society may suffer. The relationship between freedom and justice is the subject of chapter 3. In this chapter, Sen perspicuously points out that when evaluating a particular state of affairs, it is very important to pay attention to the “informational bases” of the principles that are used to conduct the underlying evaluation. This point has been an abiding theme in much of Sen’s work; indeed, Sen afficionados will note that it has been stressed recently in his 1998 Nobel lecture. Here, the author develops this point by discussing the pros and cons of three specific evaluative approaches, namely, utilitarianism, libertarianism, and Rawlsian justice. This discussion leads Sen to note that his “capability approach . . . [allows] evaluative

The Philippine Economy in the Asian Crisis

The Philippines has avoided the worst consequences of a full-scale crisis because it had strong economic fundamentals, including a reformed financial sector at the onset of the regional crisis. This paper gives an account of the response of the Philippines to the baht collapse. The peso was floated shortly after the baht currency crisis. One year later, the Philippine economy was still in relatively good shape, but growth was slowing down and there was concern about the the consequences for the Philippines if the contagion spreads beyond Asia. The new Estrada Government stressed the need for further stringent budget cuts. The stock market continued to decline. The liberalization programme was kept in place, inflation remained moderate, and exports continued to show strong growth However, the economy remains vulnerable if the crisis continues much longer. High Growth Scenario is Cut Short The Philippine economy was cruising towards a higher plateau of growth activity when the Thai authorities floated the baht on 2 July 1997. For more than a decade the Philippines economy had played the growth laggard in ASEAN. Rising from its own economic crisis that was experienced during that decade and, with the help of successful structural reforms, the Philippine economy began to show credible economic achievements measured by growth, exports, investment, and macroeconomic stability. The annual growth of the gross national product (GNP) averaged 5% in 1994 and 1995. The growth of gross national product in 1996 was close to 7%. The export growth achieved by the Philippines was the highest in Asia in 1995, at almost 30% that year, and annual export growth over an extended period up to 1997 averaged around 25%. At US$25 billion, this scale of exports was still low by Asian standards, but the high export growth was announcing the arrival of a new tiger economy, and import growth was fuelled by rising investment. The large current account deficit of about 5% of GNP during 1993 to 1997 was viewed as an indication of rising investment and therefore not a cause for alarm. After one year of crisis, by mid-1998, the situation continued to show the Philippines in relatively good light vis-a-vis worse-affected neighbours, but with a substantial slowdown in real output. In 1997, real GNP grew at 5.4%, a result that already factored in the impact of the crisis. At the outset, it was widely believed that the impact of the crisis on the Philippines would be minimal. As the crisis evolved and became more prolonged, expectations about the future became more bearish. The Philippine experience is essentially one of responding to a major currency crisis that led to a contraction of overall demand, with positive growth remaining an element of the situation. In the other countries -- particularly in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea - the experience was one of systemic crisis in the banking and financial sector, and a major foreign debt exigency resulting in measures that led to a major contraction of output. Economic Fundamentals before the Crisis Relatively sound macroeconomic fundamentals underlay the pre-crisis optimism. In 1994, the national government achieved a fiscal surplus. This fiscal performance was sustained for four years in a row. The fiscal surplus of the national government reached almost 1% of GNP in 1994, although this stabilized throughout the period at about one-third of 1% of GNP until 1997. A consolidated fiscal surplus (to include all sources of fiscal operations, including public enterprises) was not attained until 1996 (at one-third of 1% of GNP). The government objective was to sustain a consolidated fiscal surplus to facilitate better management of the growth of public investment. There was also considerable improvement on the external debt front. The Brady debt deal of 1992 helped a lot. The high external debt burden inherited from the problems of the 1980s was gradually reduced. …

What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?

The authors find that the composite leading index (CLI) is useful for forecasting gross national product (GNP), both in sample and in an out-of-sample real-time exercise. They propose a nonlinear specification in which cyclical shifts of the CLI precede those in GNP. However, the authors find that better forecasts are provided by a simple linear relation between current GNP growth and the growth rate of the CLI during the previous quarter along with an error-correction term corresponding to the previous quarter's logarithmic difference between the level of the CLI and the level of GNP. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.

More Women-Owned Businesses are Important; New Government Programs may not be

Strickland and Burr at once proclaim the utility of generally employeeless and undercapitalized sole proprietorships for women having few work options and assert that enough of these small businesses grow big that the group as a whole benefits the national economy. They miscast the first function as primarily facilitating the second. For many women, small business ownership is a short-term last resort and perhaps the sole way now to enlist some in service to the national economy. Greater national gain in the form of job growth and income enhancement, however, can be achieved in the longer term by diverting capital and labor to the wage and salary sector Policy fostering women's ownership of small business should have as its principal target women, not small business per se. Subsidies paid women-owned businesses impose opportunity costs associated more with skill development than growth in gross national product. Policy's main goal should be to aid women in securing skills and using them to maximum advantage on the open market unfettered by discrimination.

Economic Security and Value Change

Confirming Inglehart's prediction (1971) of an intergenerational shift toward postmaterialist values, a time series analysis controlling for the joint effects of inflation and unemployment demonstrates that there is a statistically significant trend toward postmaterialism in all eight West European countries for which data are available over the past two decades. Evidence from the 1981–83 and 1990–91 World Values Surveys indicates that this value shift occurs in any society that has experienced sufficient economic growth in recent decades so that the preadult experiences of younger birth cohorts were significantly more secure than those of older cohorts. Large intergenerational differences tend to be found in societies that have experienced rapid growth in gross national product per capita, and are negligible in societies that have had little or no growth. Accordingly, postmaterialism increased in 18 of the 20 societies on five continents for which we have comparable data over the past decade.

Stability of Caribbean Countries

This study tests the hypothesis that during the 1980s tourist-oriented Caribbean economies experienced cyclical economic activity due to changes in tourist activities. Many Caribbean economies were unstable during the last decade. However, the economic instability in the 14 countries studied could not be traced to fluctuations in tourist expenditures. In these countries the average share of their gross national product (GNP) attributed to tourism is rather small for the Caribbean. Only Jamaica, with 39 per cent of its GNP associated with tourist expenditures, appeared to be vulnerable to tourism cycles. The tourism industry in the Caribbean experienced strong fluctuations in revenue during the 1980s. However, fluctuations in GNP growth rates were more pronounced, and affected countries with relatively low levels of tourism revenues as well as others. Thus, Caribbean countries which are developing their international tourism industries do not necessarily confront greater cyclical economic activity. This po...

A Successful Population Policy: Potentials and Constraints (Distinguishedl Lecture)

The current rapid population growth in many developing countries is the result of an historical process in the course of which mortality rates have fallen significantly but birthrates have remained constant or fallen only slightly. Whereas, in industrial countries, the drop in mortality rates, triggered by improvements in nutrition and progress in medicine and hygiene, was a reaction to economic development, which ensured that despite the concomitant growth in population no economic difficulties arose (the gross national product (GNP) grew faster than the population so that per capita income (PCI) continued to rise), the drop in mortality rates to be observed in developing countries over the last 60 years has been the result of exogenous influences: to a large degree the developing countries have imported the advances made in industrial countries in the fields of medicine and hygiene. Thus, the drop in mortality rates has not been the product of economic development; rather, it has occurred in isolation from it, thereby leading to a rise in population unaccompanied by economic growth. Growth in GNP has not kept pace with population growth: as a result, per capita income in many developing countries has stagnated or fallen. Mortality rates in developing countries are still higher than those in industrial countries, but the gap is closing appreciably. Ultimately, this gap is not due to differences in medical or hygienic know-how but to economic bottlenecks (e.g. malnutrition, access to health services)