Population and development: lessons from the Japanese Meiji experience revisited.

Abstract

The model developed in this study is of a long-run supply-oriented nature consisting of economic and demographic components. The study demonstrates that the economic structure observed at the take-off stage of Japans development is different from that in operation at present in the developing regions of Asia. The simulation results indicate that population growth patterns of Japans early development period contributed to a faster growth of gross national product per capita than that in developing countries in contemporary Asia. In the 30-year period of simulation the GNP per capita is almost 43% higher than that derived from the model representing the developing countries. The primary source of the uniqueness of Japans demographic changes in her early development stage is the improvement in mortality reflecting the fact that while Meiji Japan experienced a gradual decline in mortality which accompanied its economic development mortality declines in contemporary developing countries have been induced by modern medical technology and public health measures imported from developed countries. It was also found that the mechanism of fertility reduction observed in Meiji Japan is comparable to that in operation in the developing countries in Asia. Further research on the fertility mechanism in the early stages of Japans economic development may lead to results useful to the formulation of effective fertility policies in Asias developing nations.