Global Trade Growth Research Articles

Integrating AI and Blockchain Technologies for Enhanced Risk Management and Operational Efficiency in Indonesian Airport Customs: Challenges and Opportunities

The rapid growth of global trade has increased the need to modernize customs operations, especially in Indonesia, where traditional methods struggle with fraud and inefficiency. This study explores the integration of disruptive technologies, specifically Artificial Intelligence (AI) and blockchain, to enhance risk management and operational efficiency in Indonesian customs. Using a qualitative methodology, including literature reviews, case studies, and interviews with customs officials, the research highlights AI's ability to automate risk assessments and fraud detection, while blockchain ensures secure, transparent transaction records. Despite the significant benefits, challenges such as personnel resistance, outdated infrastructure, and regulatory uncertainties hinder implementation. The study emphasizes the need for comprehensive training for customs officers and collaboration with Cross-Border Regulatory Agencies (CBRAs) to overcome these obstacles. Case studies from Singapore and the UAE provide valuable insights into best practices for integrating these technologies. With strategic investment and strong stakeholder commitment, Indonesia can modernize its customs systems, improve efficiency, and strengthen national security. The study concludes with recommendations for creating a comprehensive integration roadmap, developing skills initiatives, and strengthening regulatory frameworks to support the successful adoption of AI and blockchain in Indonesian customs.

Spatiotemporal and Multilayer Trade Network Patterns of the Global Cobalt Cycle.

Recent years have witnessed increasing attempts to track trade flows of critical materials across world regions and along the life cycle for renewable energy and the low carbon transition. Previous studies often had limited spatiotemporal coverage, excluded end-use products, and modeled different life cycle stages as single-layer networks. Here, we integrated material flow analysis and complex network analysis into a multilayer framework to characterize the spatiotemporal and multilayer trade network patterns of the global cobalt cycle from 1988 to 2020. We found substantial growth and notable structural changes in global cobalt trade over the past 30 years. China, Germany, and the United States play pivotal roles in different layers and stages of the global cobalt cycle. The interlayer relationships among alloys, batteries, and materials are robust and continually strengthening, indicating a trend toward synergistic trade. However, cobalt ore-exporting countries are highly concentrated and rarely involved in later life cycle stages, resulting in the weakest relationship between the ore layer and other layers. This causes fluctuations and uncertainty in the global cobalt trade. Our model, linking industrial ecology, supply chain analysis, and network analysis, can be extended to other materials that are critical for the future green transition.

Research on the Optimization of Ship Trajectory Clustering Based on the OD–Hausdorff Distance

With the growth of global trade, port shipping is becoming more and more important. In this paper, an analysis of a ship’s inbound and outbound track characteristics is conducted using the OD–Hausdorff distance. The accuracy and efficiency of trajectory data analysis have been enhanced through clustering analysis. Trajectories are arranged in a time sequence, and representative port segments are selected. An improved OD–Hausdorff distance method is employed to capture the dynamic characteristics of a ship’s movements, such as speed and heading. Additionally, the DBSCAN algorithm is utilized for clustering, allowing for the processing of multidimensional AIS data. Data cleaning and preprocessing have ensured the reliability of the AIS data, and the Douglas–Peucker algorithm is used for trajectory simplification. Significant improvements in the accuracy and efficiency of trajectory clustering have been observed. Therefore, the main channel of the Guan River and the right side of Yanwei Port are usually followed by ships greater than 60 m in length, with a lateral Relative Mean Deviation (RMD) of 7.06%. Vessels shorter than 60 m have been shown to have greater path variability, with a lateral RMD of 7.94%. Additionally, a crossing pattern at Xiangshui Port is exhibited by ships shorter than 60 m due to the extension of berths and their positions at turns. Enhanced clustering accuracy has provided more precise trajectory patterns, which aids in better channel management.

Enhancing global maritime traffic network forecasting with gravity-inspired deep learning models

Aquatic non-indigenous species (NIS) pose significant threats to biodiversity, disrupting ecosystems and inflicting substantial economic damages across agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Due to the fast growth of global trade and transportation networks, NIS has been introduced and spread unintentionally in new environments. This study develops a new physics-informed model to forecast maritime shipping traffic between port regions worldwide. The predicted information provided by these models, in turn, is used as input for risk assessment of NIS spread through transportation networks to evaluate the capability of our solution. Inspired by the gravity model for international trades, our model considers various factors that influence the likelihood and impact of vessel activities, such as shipping flux density, distance between ports, trade flow, and centrality measures of transportation hubs. Accordingly, this paper introduces transformers to gravity models to rebuild the short- and long-term dependencies that make the risk analysis feasible. Thus, we introduce a physics-inspired framework that achieves an 89% binary accuracy for existing and non-existing trajectories and an 84.8% accuracy for the number of vessels flowing between key port areas, representing more than 10% improvement over the traditional deep-gravity model. Along these lines, this research contributes to a better understanding of NIS risk assessment. It allows policymakers, conservationists, and stakeholders to prioritize management actions by identifying high-risk invasion pathways. Besides, our model is versatile and can include new data sources, making it suitable for assessing international vessel traffic flow in a changing global landscape.

The Impact of Non-Green Trade Openness on Environmental Degradation in Newly Industrialized Countries

Environmental degradation due to human over-exploitation is one of the most pressing global issues. The ten Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) have recently witnessed substantial economic growth and involvement in global trade. In the discussion on environmental degradation, trade has a crucial role. Scholars use trade openness to test the scale effect on the environment. This research investigates the effect of non-green trade openness, economic growth, and energy consumption on ecological footprint. Panel estimation techniques such as cross-sectional dependence, slope homogeneity, unit root, and cointegration analyses are applied to panel data of ten NICs between 2003 and 2016. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method reveals that non-green trade openness increases environmental degradation in the panel. Energy consumption and economic growth are also found to increase environmental degradation. Moreover, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is validated. The research presents a few relevant policy implications. The NICs should invest in green energy and an energy-efficient economy and focus on stimulating green trade as a catalyst for sustainable economic development in order to improve the quality of their environment. This can be done by introducing higher tariffs on non-green products and investing in technological innovations for green production methods and renewable energy. Although local environmental pollution in the European Union (EU) decreases, an increase in pollution in the NICs threatens the global state of the environment. Therefore, non-green trade should be approached as an international problem that has detrimental effects on all countries in different phases of economic development.

Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on Jiangsu’s Foreign Trade

The acceleration of globalization makes the whole world economy full of uncertainty Development has strongly promoted the growth of global trade, on the other hand, the financial crisis of globalization will have a more profound impact on every economy, thus disrupting the balance of the global economy. GARCH model is used to calculate the volatility of exchange rate, and the empirical part analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the export trade of Jiangsu Province. A total of 70 periods of monthly data from 2018 to 2023 are used, including two periods of exchange rate reform and epidemic that have a great impact on RMB exchange rate fluctuations. The empirical results show that, the change of exchange rate has a significant impact on the import and export trade volume of Jiangsu Province, and the exchange rate fluctuation has a significant negative impact on the export trade scale of Jiangsu province, which is greater than the import; Finally, for the foreign trade industry of Jiangsu province how to deal with the volatility of RMB exchange rate, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of government and enterprises respectively.

Targeting the Effectiveness Assessment of the Emission Control Policies on the Shipping Industry

Compared to air, rail, and road transport, shipping is a more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly way to transport goods over a long distance. However, the unprecedented growth of global seaborne trade has had a significant impact on the environment. The process of shipping transportation, through exhaust gas, wastewater discharge, fuel leakage, etc., has caused very serious environmental pollution. In response to this issue, the International Maritime Organization introduced the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) Convention to regulate the discharge of pollution from ships. Given that there are few studies discussing policy effectiveness, this study comprehensively considers and reviews the implementation effectiveness of all annexed policies under the MARPOL Convention. After discussing the differences between these policies based on the implementation conditions, requirements, strictness, and scope of adoption, the empirical analysis method of time-varying differences-in-differences model is adopted to analyze the policy effectiveness of each annex. It further puts forward suggestions and references for the formulation of effective maritime policies in the future that should be targeted, comprehensive, contingency-based, and proactive. This will help design or revise policies in the shipping industry, thereby promoting the early achievement of shipping emission reduction targets and contributing to the sustainability of the shipping industry.

Taking Dandelion as an Example: Exploring a Comprehensive Prediction and Evaluation Model for Invasive Species

With the rapid growth of global trade and tourism, the phenomenon of species invasion is becoming increasingly serious. Invasive species often have a significant impact on native ecosystems, disrupting ecological balance and threatening biodiversity. Therefore, it is essential to conduct in-depth research on invasive species. Dandelion, due to its strong reproductive ability, is considered a common invasive plant, but its application value in medicine, food, and ornamental uses cannot be ignored. Therefore, this article aims to establish a mathematical model to explore the relationship between invasive species and human activities and take Dandelion as an example to establish a comprehensive prediction and evaluation model for detailed analysis.

Conflicts due to cultural differences in multicultural ships

ABSTRACT The growth in global trade and technological developments in the maritime industry have increased the number of ships and their capacities. Despite the decreased size of crews in modern ships, the increased number of ships has increased the demand for qualified seafarers. Shipowners and ship operators have tried to solve the problem of this imbalance by employing seafarers, not only from their own countries, but also from other countries. Increased competition and costs have increased the number of multinational crews in the maritime trade. In ships operated with multinational crews, potential conflicts among the crewmembers due to cultural differences endanger the safety of the ship and the cargo. In this study, the literature was examined to identify conflicts due to cultural differences in multinational ships. The factors causing conflict were established as criteria by taking the opinions of human resources experts of eleven maritime enterprises and four academics, and the criteria weights were determined with the fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method. The rankings of solution alternatives were calculated by the fuzzy TOPSIS (technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution) method.

Can International Business and Entrepreneurship be the Catalysts for Economic Growth in Africa?

Innovative entrepreneurs are important actors in regional economies of Africa. There are enormous entrepreneurial opportunities in the global markets. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects for 2023 indicates that the global growth has eased, but remains robust, and is projected to reach 3.1 percent in 2018. Overall, growth in global trade of goods and services combined is expected to moderate to 4.3 percent in 2018, down from a six-year high of 4.8 percent in 2017. This projection has been revised upwards due to stronger-than-expected intra-regional trade growth in Asia and Africa as well as import-demand from major advanced economies. Global trade in goods and services is projected to rise to $27 trillion in 2030 from $10.3 trillion in 2015. Trade as a share of the global economy will increase from 1/4 to 1/3. Roughly half of the increase is likely to come from developing countries that will supply over 65 % of manufactured imports to rich countries, compared with 40% today. Some developing countries are expected to have growth rate over 6%, much higher than developed countries. When trade expands, technologies will rapidly diffuse to developing countries. The dominance of globalization is transferring to China, India and Brazil. The challenge of entrepreneurship is immense in Africa. The entrepreneur’s needs differentiation of exporting and the continent has to create its own regional clusters so as to enhance the competitiveness of its enterprises. Africa may have all the possible comparative advantages in certain industries but what is required is entrepreneurial actions. International business and entrepreneurship appear to be the catalysts for much of the expected economic growth in Africa.

THE US TRADE AND TECHNOLOGY WAR AGAINST CHINA AND THE RESULTING GEOECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION: POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS AND RISKS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

The aim of the paper is to assess the possible consequences and risks for the global economy due to the increasingly pronounced geoeconomic fragmentation, dominantly determined by the trade and technological war of the US against China. Based on benchmark studies’ findings, we reason that decoupling and trade fragmentation could manifest through several main channels. These are, among other things: the slowdown in the growth of global trade, reduced migration, decreased FDI, and bans on the transfer of certain high technologies. In order to achieve the primary goal of the study, we suggested pragmatic ways to preserve as many of the benefits as possible resulting from trade openness, that is, international economic cooperation. First of all, in addition to more intensive communications of the main global economic actors, in which additional efforts would be made for compromise solutions along the lines of argumentation of the academic community and experts in relevant international institutions, the work of leading multilateral organizations should be revitalized, giving greater importance in their leadership to developing countries, especially China. In the end, we argue that, despite all the risks, it is not realistic that geo-economic fragmentation will lead to a significant decline in most types of economic cooperation at the global level since there are no valid (geopolitical) reasons why Western countries would stop importing price- and qualitatively competitive products from China. Instead, collaboration will primarily be reduced to a limited number of high-tech sectors, perceived in Washington, Brussels, and Beijing as strategically important.

The linkages between trade, financial openness, and economic growth in China: an ARDL-bound test approach

ABSTRACT This research examines the linkages between trade, financial openness, and economic growth in China from 1992 to 2021, using Granger causality analysis in the ECM model to identify the trend of a causal relationship between the variables. The results confirm the validity of export-led growth and the supply-leading hypotheses in China. Moreover, China’s broad money is output-oriented, and the significance of exports to China’s economy is supported by the influence of real income and imports caused by exports. Lastly, the research highlights that domestic credit expansion by the banking industry stimulates global trade growth; however, import changes cause broad money fluctuations. Policymakers can utilize these findings to identify the trend of the growth and development of the trade and financial industry of the economy, as there is substantial proof that a meaningful relationship is occurring between economic growth, trade, and the financial development sectors of the economy.

Comparative Analysis of Digital Service Trade between China and the U.S.

Digital service trade has become an important force driving global trade growth. This paper selects two digital trade powers, China and the United States, and focuses on the comparison of digital service trade between the two countries, analyzing the scale of digital service trade, international market share, import and export source and target countries, and four aspects of segmentation structure, summarizing the shortcomings of China in digital service trade compared with the United States, and proposing measures to promote the development of digital services trade in China.

Non-invasive study of the dyes and pigments in the Chinese woodblock New Year paintings

Woodblock New Year painting is a traditional Chinese folk art that flourished during the 19th and early 20th centuries. These paintings feature a wide variety of colors, particularly after the introduction of synthetic colorants from Europe in the late 19th century. The scientific identification of dyes and pigments used in these paintings can provide valuable insights into the socio-historical context of the time. However, the history of materials used in the printing of New Year paintings is still lacking adequate information. In this study, we employed a combination of spectroscopic and imaging techniques, including Macro X-ray fluorescence imaging (MA-XRF), hyperspectral imaging, and Raman spectroscopy to identify the dyes and pigments used in two Yangliuqing New Year paintings. Our analysis revealed the presence of both traditional pigments and synthetic colorants, such as vermilion, Prussian blue, and methyl/crystal violet. We also discovered several color-matching techniques used to create light pink, light orange, and dark purple hues. These findings suggest that synthetic colorants were gradually replacing traditional pigments in China due to the growth of global trade at that time. Furthermore, our research provides valuable information for the conservation, preservation, and display of New Year paintings.

Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote Bilateral Trade? An Empirical Analysis of China and the Belt and Road Countries

The development of trade is an essential element of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a significant effort by China to promote inter-regional economic development. Using Chinese trade data from 190 countries and regions worldwide from 1993 to 2021, this article quantitatively analyzes (a) if and to what extent the BRI has promoted bilateral trade development, (b) how trade with China has contributed to the country’s economic growth and (c) what commodity and regional heterogeneity exist in these effects. The empirical results show that the BRI significantly increases China’s trade with the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative and countries along the Belt and Road route and significantly increases imports and exports in all five commodity categories—primary goods, resource-intensive manufactured goods, low-tech, medium-tech, and high-tech manufactured goods. Meanwhile, the trade volume with China substantially contributes to the economic development of the trading countries. However, Asia, Europe, and Africa show different characteristics in all three aspects mentioned above. These results show that the BRI not only benefits China’s international trade but also promotes the trade development of the involved countries. It clarifies the crucial role this open, inclusive inter-regional economic cooperation plays in global trade growth when facing the escalating anti-globalization sentiment.

Analysis on new occurrence records of red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) in China in 2021

AbstractSolenopsis invicta Buren, also known as the red imported fire ant (RIFA), has had a very negative effect on biological diversity, public safety, agriculture, and economics. Because of the growth in global trade, the RIFA threat to China will continue to increase. To better understand characteristics of newly observed distributions of RIFA, we studied the effects of three factors including provincial areas, landcover types, and climatic conditions on the 130 new occurrence records in 2021. (1) We found that RIFA preferred to invade Sichuan and Guangxi, and provinces that are large agricultural producers were more vulnerable to invasive RIFA. Guangdong was the most damaged province, and wealthy provinces, especially southeastern coastal provinces, were more at risk and suffered a bigger loss from the further RIFA threat. (2) Compared with other habitats, plantations received more significant damage from invasive RIFA. (3) Areas with an annual precipitation of 516.4 mm, annual average temperature of 18.6°C, or elevation of 569.9 m had a great abundance of invasive RIFA. Our study suggests that stringent inspection and quarantine measures are necessary in new occurrence areas to prevent further RIFA outbreak, and highlights the need for cross‐provincial cooperation and national coordination to slow its spread.

Numerical Simulation of Different Ventilation Systems in an Airplane Cabin

Airplanes are the most popular way of transportation worldwide, especially for long haul. It facilitates the growth of global trade as well, besides promoting tourism and other employment developments. Passenger comfort and hygiene inside an airplane cabin became main concern for aircraft manufacturers. The possibility for a potential spread of infectious virus or bacteria even maximized this concern. Therefore, supplying sterile and particle-free air inside the aircraft cabin became extremely crucial more than ever. In order to ensure comfort and hygiene, regardless of the environment conditions inside the aircraft cabin, paved the way for researchers to focus on this topic, recently. It is obvious that, an important precaution for the spread of micro-organisms can be selecting an adequate air ventilation system inside the airplane cabin. In this study, a part of an airplane passenger cabin is modelled for four different scenarios. The streamlines of air, which is sent to the cabin from air ducts, are obtained and air flow path is observed for the investigated cases. The results of the numerical simulations are presented as the outcomes of this study. It is observed that the air mixing between different seat rows occur slightly only for sidewall supply and bottom return mixing ventilation and displacement ventilation systems, whereas the air mixing for the same seat row is seen for all ventilation systems. In conclusion, sidewall supply and bottom return mixing ventilation system is found the most appropriate one, even though it causes air recirculation at the same row seats.

Іmpact of Ukraine-Russia war on global trade and development: an empirical study

The crisis in Ukraine has created a humanitarian crisis of immense proportions and has also dealt a severe blow to the globe economy. The brunt of the suffering and destruction are being felt by the people of Ukraine themselves but the prices in terms of reduced trade and output are likely to be felt by people round the world through higher food and energy prices and reduced availability of products exported by Russia and Ukraine. Poorer countries are at high risk from the war, since they have a tendency to spend a bigger fraction of their incomes on food compared to wealthier countries, this might impact huge political stability globally. From a macroeconomic perspective, higher prices for food and energy will reduce real incomes and depress global import demand. Sanctions will impose economic costs on not only Russia directly but also on its trading partners. Besides Russia and Ukraine, depressed gross domestic product (GDP) will probably be seen mostly in Europe given the region’s geographic proximity and its dependence on Russian energy. Trade costs will rise within the near term because of extraordinary sanctions, export restrictions, higher energy costs and transport disruptions furthermore. As a result, the impact of the war will wear world interchange 2022 might be greater than the impact on global GDP. While shares of Russia and Ukraine in world trade and output are relatively small, they're important suppliers of essential products, notably food and energy. Both countries accounted for 2.5 percent in world merchandise trade and 1.9 per cent in world GDP in 2021. Yet they supplied around 25 per cent of wheat, 15 per cent of barley and 45 per cent of sunflower products exports in 2019. Russia alone accounted for 9.4 percent of world trade fuels, including a 20 per cent share in fossil fuel exports. Many countries are highly obsessed on food imports from Russia and Ukraine. for instance, over 1/2 wheat imports in Egypt, the Lebanon and Tunisia come from Russia and Ukraine. Other countries are more addicted to imports of fuels from Russia, like Finland (63 percent) and Turkey (35 percent). Russia and Ukraine also are key providers of inputs into industrial value chains. Russia is one in all the most suppliers globally of palladium and rhodium, key inputs within the production of catalytic converters within the automotive sector and therefore the manufacture of semiconductors. Semiconductor production also depends to a considerable extent on neon supplied by Ukraine, which further provides variety of low-tech products to the ecu automobile value chain, like wire harnesses. Prolonged disruptions within the supply of those goods could harm the recovery of automobile manufacturing. Sanctions are already having a robust impact on Russia’s economy, with possible medium to long-term consequences. Disconnecting Russian banks from the SWIFT settlement system and blocking Russia’s use of interchange reserves have triggered a pointy depreciation of the ruble, reducing real incomes within the country. Most of the massive international firms also are abandoning the Russian market. Oil and gas exports have yet to be strongly full of the sanctions, but the crisis could accelerate the worldwide transition towards greener energy sources. Longstanding economic relationships are disrupted by the war and by the sanctions imposed in its wake. Eminent economists have simulated various scenarios parenthetically the channels through which trade may well be affected and to explore possible short-run and long-run effects. Global trade growth is projected to slow by up to 2.2 percentage points in 2022. long term impacts could even be large and consequential. there's a risk that trade could become more fragmented in terms of blocs supported geopolitics. whether or not no formal blocs emerge, private actors might prefer to minimize risk by reorienting supply chains. this might reduce global GDP within the long term by about 5 percent, notably by restricting competition and stifling innovation (WTO, 2022). The Global Economy has a crucial role to play in mitigating the negative effects of the crisis and in rebuilding a post-war global economy. Keeping markets open are critical to confirm that economic opportunities remain receptive all countries. this can be very true within the post-war period, when businesses and families will have to repair their balance sheets and rebuild their lives. Through its importance for international trade and its monitoring, convening and other functions, the WTO is central to making sure that international trade continues to serve billions of individuals across the globe. during this paper we are giving an empirical analysis of world trade and development impacted by the present Russian-Ukraine war.

No double standards: Quantifying the impact of standard harmonization on trade

This paper quantifies a novel channel that contributes to greater trade integration: the release of harmonized, voluntary product standards. Standards define product characteristics that ensure compatibility, quality and consistency. Harmonized standards unify these characteristics across countries and reduce country-specific adaption costs. We create a novel database on cross-country standards and show that harmonized standards have contributed up to 13% of the growth in global trade. We build a heterogeneous firm model where harmonized standards generate scale effects and induce firms to adopt the standard. Firm-level evidence shows that only the largest firms in the top range of the size-distribution increase their export sales. These firms benefit from higher demand, charge higher prices and sell larger volumes.

Exact Algorithms for Practical Instances of the Railcar Loading Problem at Marine Container Terminals

With the growth in global trade and its environmental footprint, sustainable modes of freight movement are increasingly important in today’s globalized world. This study focuses on on-dock rail, where the rail terminal is located within the marine container terminal. On-dock rail has in recent years become an essential mode of transportation to move containers out of congested marine container terminals. This study contributes to the literature by presenting tailored exact solution algorithms for a recently proposed optimization model to optimize the loading of double-stack trains. In particular, a 3-stage solution framework is presented for the case when rail cars have a single well. A complementary solution algorithm for the case when a rail car has multiple wells is also provided. Our results show that computational times can be drastically reduced, from 2+ hours to a matter of seconds, rendering the model suitable for practical use.