Growth In Global Demand Research Articles

Report card on sustainable natural-resource use in the agricultural regions of Western Australia

A ‘Report Card’, which summarises the current knowledge of the status and trend in land condition in the agricultural areas of the south-west of Western Australia, was published in 2013 by the Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia. The Report Card draws on best available evidence from government and industry on the current condition and trend of 10 soil- and water-related natural resource themes relevant to agriculture, and discusses the implications of these results for the agricultural industries. The report also discusses the three main factors driving the performance of the land, namely climate, land characteristics and land management. The first two factors are largely out of the control of land managers, but in a drying and warming climate of the agricultural areas of Western Australia, land-management practices need to be able to respond to these changing conditions. The paper briefly explains the methodologies used to assess the seven soil-related themes in the Report Card and summarises the major findings. The results indicate that, for soils, the situation and outlook for our natural resources is mixed. Although there has been progress in some areas, such as managing wind and water erosion, the status and trend in many indicators of resource condition, such as soil acidity, soil compaction and water repellence, are adverse. The predicted growth in global demand for food and fibre brings many opportunities to the Western Australian agri-food sector but also challenges, especially in light of the Report Card findings. One of these challenges is our need to achieve agricultural productivity growth while ensuring our natural resources are healthy and resilient.

Evaluation of Uncertainties on the Performance of Distance Relay

Global demand growth for electric energy has speed up development in designing power systems in order to meet users' needs for providing reliable, cheap and high quality electric energy. In power networks the first zone of distance relay is considered as main protection for transmission lines. Zones 2 and 3 of this relay are considered as supporting protection for next lines. Distance relay can be affected by many factors which are not clear and definite. These factors which are considered as uncertainties are fault resistance, fault in measurement transformers, ground resistance, and change in structure and exploitation conditions. In this article we prove their considering uncertainties approaches zone 1 distance relay extent to 100 percent of protected line provides more reliable protection for transmission lines.

Climate Change, California Wine, and Wildlife Habitat

AbstractClimate change may drive shifts in global agriculture that will affect remaining natural lands, with important consequences for the conservation of species and ecosystems. Wine production is an excellent model for examining this type of impact, because suitable climate is central to product quality and production is centered in Mediterranean climate regions that are all global biodiversity hotspots. Adaptation to climate change in existing vineyards may involve water use to ameliorate heat stress or drought, resulting in additional conservation issues. Global studies of wine, climate, and conservation have highlighted the need for more detailed regional analyses to better understand these complex multiple issues. Here we examine impacts of climate change on winegrape suitability in California and its possible implications for nature conservation and water use. Under two global climate models and two emissions scenarios, winegrape suitability in California is projected to decline overall and to move into undeveloped areas that provide important habitats for native species. Coastal and upslope areas retain and improve in suitability, respectively, while inland areas see the largest losses in suitability. Areas of declining suitability are regions in which heightened water use for vineyard adaptation may lead to declines in stream flow or conflicts with other water uses. Continued growth in global demand for wine and reduced production in areas of declining suitability will drive expansion into newly suitable areas, potentially impacting important species native to California. Existing vineyards in areas of declining suitability will likely need to adapt to remain viable. Advance planning for a changing climate and adaptation options that are not water intensive (e.g. vine orientation, trellising, or varietal switch) will help reduce potential water conservation issues in those areas. (JEL Classifications: Q15, Q54, Q57)

The Bumpy Road of Demand Growth—An Application to Atlantic Salmon

ABSTRACT We measure demand growth for all salmon-importing regions of the world using an index approach for the 2002–2011 period. Our results demonstrate that there are substantial variations in demand growth by region and over time. Russia and Brazil exhibit the highest demand growth, with average annual growth rates of approximately 20%. More established markets, such as the United States and Japan, demonstrate the lowest annual demand growth, at approximately 3%. During the sample period, the average annual rate of aggregated global demand growth is approximately 9%, whereas total global demand growth is approximately 94%. JEL Codes: D12, Q22.

A Influência dos Principais Fatores de Risco nas Diferentes Fases do Ciclo de Vida dos Projetos de Capital em uma Empresa de Mineração de Grande Porte.

As perspectivas de expansão moderada da demanda global por minérios e metais no médio prazo levam as empresas de mineração a direcionarem seus investimentos de maneira focada no incremento de sua eficiência, minimizando os seus custos e riscos. Este trabalho apresenta, na forma de um estudo de caso, pesquisa dos principais riscos que incidem nos projetos de capital de uma empresa de mineração nacional de grande porte. Entrevistas com gerentes de projetos, levantamento de dados em workshops com foco na gestão de riscos de projetos de capital, permitiram conhecer os principais riscos que incidem nas fases de desenvolvimento destes projetos

What Should China and India Do to Cooperate Globally in Energy Policies?

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China and India are the two game-changers of global energy markets. China is already the largest energy consumer in the world and India the third after the US. They account for more than a quarter of the current global energy demand and will increase to a third by 2035, sharing about half of the global demand growth. The two countries’ energy policies will have a significant influence on the global energy markets. This is particularly true for sectors like coal, oil and nuclear energy because the growth of China and India’s demands combined in these sectors amount to more than 70% of the world’s demand growth. Due to a heavier use of carbon intensive fossil fuels like coal and oil, China and India will share about 80% of the increase in the world’s CO2 emissions between now and 2035.

Cell phone towers and house prices in New Zealand: economic effects and policy implications

Purpose– Global demand growth for new cell phone towers is extraordinary. However, many markets feature onerous regulation that impedes the rolling out of new infrastructure. Regulators are primarily concerned with tower aesthetics and the perceived impact on house prices. Focusing on isolating the impact of tower aesthetic, this paper aims to discover whether proximity to cell phone towers influences house prices.Design/methodology/approach– Hedonic modeling is used to measure the influence of proximity to cell phone towers on house prices in the urban area of Christchurch, New Zealand, based on 9,715 transactions over the period from 2004 to 2010. Three functional proximity forms are tested separately.Findings– No statistically significant connection between cell phone towers and house prices was observed.Originality/value– In light of this study's results and emerging empirical evidence on the proximity-price relationship, New Zealand's recently introduced National Environmental Standards for Telecommunication Facilities may serve as a model of public policy on tower siting for other markets.

Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource‐rich economies by 2030

Rapid economic growth in some emerging economies in recent decades has significantly increased their global economic importance. If this rapid growth continues and is strongest in resource‐poor Asian economies, the growth in global demand for imports of primary products also will continue, to the ongoing benefit of natural resource‐rich countries. This paper explores how global production, consumption and trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes under various scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database with a base year of 2007, along with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline assuming that trade‐related policies do not change in each region but that factor endowments and real GDP grow at exogenously estimated rates. That baseline is compared with two alternative scenarios: one in which the growth rates of China and India are lower by one‐quarter and the other in which this slowdown in emerging economies leads to slower productivity growth in the primary sectors of all countries. Throughout the results, implications are drawn out for natural resource‐abundant economies, including Australia and New Zealand.

Globalisations in a nutshell: Historical perspectives on the changing governance of the shea commodity chain in northern Ghana

Pre-colonial patterns of trade in West Africa included exchanges of shea in periodic local and regional markets. The collection, processing and marketing of shea products in such markets continues to be predominantly by women to both meet subsistence needs, and exchange of surpluses. In the early part of the 20 th century, the British colonial administration considered the possibilities of starting large-scale exports of shea kernels to Europe. Multiple colonial initiatives to develop the global trade were not successful due to a composite of factors. Contemporary patterns of production, trade and regulation are contrasted in the context of globalisation in the post-independence era. The government of Ghana has progressively reinforced its ambitions to expand the shea nut trade as part of the state’s portfolio of major non-traditional agricultural export commodities. This policy is embedded within the (now) dominant orthodoxy of neo-liberalism, which privileges monetized production systems and private over public regulation. Historically and culturally-embedded patterns of shea production and trade by women in northern Ghana may now be challenged by the emergence of new processing technologies, the emergence of an oligopolistic global commodity chain and the anticipated continued growth in global demand for cocoa butter equivalents. Nevertheless, the cumulative impacts of increasing commercialisation and world market integration at the national and local level in Ghana, and other West African producer countries, are still unknown. There are risks, however, that this process may result in social differentiation, changes in household consumption patterns and loss of livelihoods, particularly for women.

Globalisations in a nutshell: Historical perspectives on the changing governance of the shea commodity chain in northern Ghana

Pre-colonial patterns of trade in West Africa included exchanges of shea in periodic local and regional markets. The collection, processing and marketing of shea products in such markets continues to be predominantly by women to both meet subsistence needs, and exchange of surpluses. In the early part of the 20^th century, the British colonial administration considered the possibilities of starting large-scale exports of shea kernels to Europe. Multiple colonial initiatives to develop the global trade were not successful due to a composite of factors. Contemporary patterns of production, trade and regulation are contrasted in the context of globalisation in the post-independence era. The government of Ghana has progressively reinforced its ambitions to expand the shea nut trade as part of the state’s portfolio of major non-traditional agricultural export commodities. This policy is embedded within the (now) dominant orthodoxy of neo-liberalism, which privileges monetized production systems and private over public regulation. Historically and culturally-embedded patterns of shea production and trade by women in northern Ghana may now be challenged by the emergence of new processing technologies, the emergence of an oligopolistic global commodity chain and the anticipated continued growth in global demand for cocoa butter equivalents. Nevertheless, the cumulative impacts of increasing commercialisation and world market integration at the national and local level in Ghana, and other West African producer countries, are still unknown. There are risks, however, that this process may result in social differentiation, changes in household consumption patterns and loss of livelihoods, particularly for women.

CHF strength and Swiss export performance – evidence and outlook from a disaggregate analysis

Why has Swiss export performance been so strong during the past quarters despite the marked appreciation of the Swiss Franc (CHF)? What is the outlook for Swiss exports given the still elevated CHF? In this article, we shed light on these questions by analysing a panel of Swiss exports disaggregated along both the regional and the industry dimension. To explain the export performance of the recent past, we estimate how the exchange rate and demand growth in each export market affect trade flows and also, how this varies across different industries. The appreciation of the CHF has considerably dampened Swiss export performance. As a counterfactual, we ask how Swiss exports would have developed had the CHF stayed flat against other currencies during the 5 years leading up to October 2010. Compared to this scenario, the Swiss export industry has already lost a cumulative of CHF 35 billion in revenues due to the CHF appreciation. At the current juncture, monthly exports are reduced by CHF 2.7 billion (around 17%). We show that the key reason for the strong export performance despite the CHF strength was the rebound in global demand in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Moreover, we also document that the timing of global demand growth has completely masked the effect of the CHF strength: during the last quarters, periods of pronounced CHF appreciation always coincided with strong recovery of global demand. Failure to account for this coincidence could lead to the wrong assumption that the exchange rate matters very little for Swiss export performance. Last, to gauge the likely evolution of Swiss exports and their regional composition in the years to come, we combine our estimation results with the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and exchange rate forecasts provided by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Following this approach, we predict that over the next 3 years, Swiss exports will rise a combined 16%, with little less than half of this increase going to Emerging Asia and 30% to the euro zone. We also document the key industries that will drive Swiss export growth in the near future.

Small-Scale Aid Donors, Agribusiness, And The Zambian Export Sector

Production of high value agriculture and natural products has become a key instrument in economic development programs to accomplish the dual objectives of raising rural incomes and conserving valuable environmental resources. Rapid growth in global demand for organic and natural products has provided a strong economic incentive for small scale aid agencies to expand into this niche market. Through this analysis we investigate the economic impact that aid funded agricultural production has had on rural residents of Zambia and how this development strategy allows small scale aid donors to capitalize on the business and export opportunities in the Central African region. We want to determine what practices, if any, can be applied to other small development organizations working in economically deprived countries. The case for this analysis is Enright Flight Ministries, Inc. (EFM), a 501(c)3 not-for-profit organization with the dual objectives of promoting economic development and evangelism in Zambia. EFM has over 20 years experience in establishing agricultural production programs to support economic development in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia. Our focus will be on 5 major EFM agribusiness ventures: African hardwood products, organic honey, aloe vera, bananas, and fisheries. Analysis of the financial statements of EFM will be relied on to provide an accurate view of total investment into the various agricultural projects. Levels of investment will be discussed in light of the current global demand for each particular product. We break down project reports to determine what benefits accrue to both farm and non-farm rural Zambians. This financial analysis will be supplemented with semi-structured interviews performed with EFM administrative staff and aid recipients during the period August - December 2011. Special attention is paid to how aid recipients perceive the program benefits.

Accident modeling approach for safety assessment in an LNG processing facility

The rapid growth in global demand for natural gas as a fuel has led to expansion of the production capacity of existing gas processing trains and the design of new process trains. The increasing complexity of high performance processing systems leads to more complex failure modes and new safety issues. To physical properties of liquefied natural gas (LNG) such as its cryogenic temperature and flammability and vapor dispersion characteristics, add additional concerns of potential safety issues. Therefore, continuous monitoring and implementation of appropriate actions are essential to prevent, control and mitigate unfavorable consequences of LNG production and use. The newly developed accident modeling approach, SHIPP (System Hazard Identification, Prediction and Prevention), is an important part of a comprehensive safety management system that helps to maintain and manage these safety issues. This approach is used to model accidents in gas processing facilities using safety barriers. It identifies possible causal factors and potential consequences and provides quantitative results by combining fault and event tree analyses. The predictive model employed in this approach helps to forecast the number of abnormal events in ensuing time intervals. In the current work, SHIPP has been validated using data from an LNG processing facility.

Tariff liberalization and trade specialization: Lessons from India

This paper analyzes the effects of policy reform on the structure of India’s trade in manufactures, from 1990 to 2006. It computes comparative advantage indicators on the basis of disaggregated trade flow data and assesses the effects of trade liberalization on the evolution of India’s pattern of trade specialization. Industries where import tariffs have been reduced the most have experienced the highest increase in specialization. Moreover, trade liberalization has helped India improve its comparative advantage in industries with medium- to high-technology content, as well as in some of the industries enjoying the most robust growth in global demand. Liberalization policies have been instrumental in enhancing the international competitiveness of industries.

An Overview of World Natural Rubber Production and Consumption: An Implication for Economic Empowerment and Poverty Alleviation in Nigeria

KEYWORDS Caoutchouc. Intercropping. Rubber Belt. Arable Crop. NIG 800 - NIG 900. ABSTRACT The study examined natural rubber (NR) production and consumption worldwide with emphasis on Nigeria. Data were collected from local and international journals on rubber production and consumption, which were analysed using descriptive statistics to evaluate the performance of the sector globally (1951 - 2005). Natural Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Muell. Arg.) was first discovered by Christopher Columbus during his visit to South America in about 1493. It is an environmental friendly cash crop grown in Africa and Asian Continents. The product is mostly consumed by Europe and America and was believed to have been domesticated in about 1876, gained global awareness in 1913. Currently, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia are the leading producers of natural rubber in the world. The global demand growth rate is about 3.4% annually. Africa produces about 408,000 tonnes annually, out of which Nigeria accounted for over 90,000 tonnes in the 1990s, but now only about 66,500 tonnes annually. This shows about 26.1% decrease in NR production from Nigeria during the period under review. Recently however ,research on NR production showed some achievements on high yielding rubber clones and the introduction of intercropping with arable crops has encouraged (NR) production in Nigeria. Inconsistence in Federal Government policies on agriculture, synthetic rubber (SR) production, ecological factors and socio-economic problems were found to be the major factors affecting rubber production and consumption in Nigeria.

Meeting the bandwidth demand challenge: technologies and network architectural options [Series Editorial

In this month's Optical Communications Series (OCS), we have selected contributions addressing developments that are needed toward meeting the continuing growth in bandwidth demand. As the global economy's recovery continues, telecommunications service providers and suppliers compete to announce initiatives addressing the current pace of global demand growth for Internet, video, TV, and telecommunications services along with forecasts for future needs.

Refinements and optimization of optical networks toward meeting the bandwidth challenge

In this month's Optical Communications Series (OCS), we have selected contributions addressing developments in services toward meeting the continuing growth in bandwidth demand. As the global economy's slow recovery continues, we receive news/announcements of service provider and supplier initiatives addressing the brisk pace of global demand growth for Internet, video, TV, and telecommunications services. Moreover, national and local governments continue to develop programs and policies, such as the U.S. Federal Communications Commission's "Connecting America" initiative, to facilitate availability of broadband communications services. As telecommunications networks continue to develop, optical communications technologies promise to enable truly broadband communications-based services in such applications as long-distance education and tele-medicine.

Food security implications of global marine catch losses due to overfishing

Excess fishing capacity and the growth in global demand for fishery products have made overfishing ubiquitous in the world’s oceans. Here we describe the potential catch losses due to unsustainable fishing in all countries’ exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and on the high seas over 1950–2004. To do so, we relied upon catch and price statistics from the Sea Around Us Project as well as an empirical relationship we derived from species stock assessments by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In 2000 alone, estimated global catch losses amounted to 7–36% of the actual tonnage landed that year, resulting in a landed value loss of between $6.4 and 36 billion (in 2004 constant US$). From 1950–2004, 36–53% of commercial species in 55–66% of EEZs may have been overfished. Referring to a species-level database of intrinsic vulnerability (V) based on life-history traits, it appears that susceptible species were depleted quickly and serially, with the average V of potential catch losses declining at a similar rate to that of actual landings. The three continental regions to incur greatest losses by mass were Europe, North America, and Asia—forming a geographic progression in time. But low-income and small island nations, heavily dependent on marine resources for protein, were impacted most profoundly. Our analysis shows that without the inexorable march of overfishing, ~20 million people worldwide could have averted undernourishment in 2000. For the same year, total catch in the waters of low-income food deficit nations might have been up to 17% greater than the tonnage actually landed there. The situation may be worst for Africa, which in our analysis registered losses of about 9–49% of its actual catches by mass in year 2000, thus seriously threatening progress towards the UN Millennium Development Goals.

Characterization of Structural Modifications Induced on Poly(Vinyl Alcohol) Surface by Atmospheric Pressure Plasma

The surface properties of polymers are of great interest to researchers. With significant growth in global demand due to its properties and availability to be processed, poly(vinyl alcohol) is at the top of common polymers. This article is concerned with plasma treatment applied on poly(vinyl alcohol) surfaces and their characterization by various methods. After plasma treatment, the roughness of the polymeric films is changed; topographical modifications of the samples were also observed. Moreover, the new fine features of PVA surface, formed due to the DBD plasma treatment, have different dimensions, depending on the plasma treatment duration.

Comments: Big Spenders

Editor's column The upstream boom may one day come to an end, but it doesn't look like that will happen this year. Forecasts for E&P spending predict another bullish year, with global demand continuing to drive efforts to increase supply, but access to resources and deciding exactly how to spend the money remain challenges. The industry's technical-staffing shortages also may be constraining efforts to increase output. Global E&P expenditures should show another year of double-digit growth this year, according to a Lehman Brothers survey, one of the oldest and most widely followed annual upstream spending reports. The survey of 344 companies found that collective spending will rise 11% to USD 369 billion, the sixth consecutive year of double-digit increases. Excluding North America, spending will increase 16% to USD 267 billion. Some of the big spenders this year will be Total (a 25% increase in upstream spending), BP (up 21%), Shell and Hess (up 15%), and Chevron (up 7%). Other big spenders are predicted to be companies from Russia, the Middle East, and Africa, along with North American independents, which are increasingly looking outside North America for reserves. Similarly, a December survey by Citi Investment Research predicts a 9.3% increase in capital and exploration spending to USD 354 billion. Other upstream sectors also look bright. The offshore oilfield services sector is facing unprecedented levels of business, says Douglas-Westwood, an industry research firm. Companies that normally might have a 6-month backlog are now booking work for 2011, the firm says in its annual forecast. "Virtually the only place where giant fields will be found in future years is in deep water, with Brazil's recent Tupi elephant find testament to that. Douglas-Westwood expects world deepwater production to grow from 6 million BOE/D in 2007 to 11 million BOE/D in 2011," the The World Deepwater Report says. Almost USD 25 billion will be spent annually in deepwater capital expenditure by 2012, representing 30% growth for the 2008–2012 period in comparison with the previous 5 years. That is particularly driving demand for deepwater rigs, floating production systems, and subsea production hardware. "This drive to produce, what is very high-cost oil, from deep water is the oil companies’ response to declining production in offshore continental shelf areas such as the North Sea and Gulf of Mexico" as well as the lack of access to onshore reserves controlled by national oil companies, the report said. The promise of Arctic waters, with estimates of up to 300 billion BOE, has resulted in a "great subsea land claim" involving Russia, Canada, and the US, the report says. Companies may soon be struggling to keep up with global demand growth, fueled by the rapidly growing economies of China and India. Energy growth in those two countries seems to have led to the rise in worldwide energy consumption the past few years and the resultant rise in oil prices to near USD 100/bbl. Several other challenges appear on the horizon beyond the unprecedented demand growth in Asia. The issue of climate change will almost certainly affect government energy policies over the next several years. And the relationship between international oil companies and national oil companies and what that means for access to reserves and speed of project development will certainly come into play. Perhaps the most critical issue to address is the looming retirements of industry staff in the coming years and the industry's ability to find, train, and retain talent.