Growth Accounting Exercise Research Articles

Sectoral cognitive skills, R&D, and productivity: a cross-country cross-sector analysis

ABSTRACTWe focus on human capital measured by skills and analyse its relationship with R&D investments and productivity across 12 OECD economies and 17 industries. We compute a measure of sectoral human capital defined as the average cognitive skills of the workforce in each country-sector combination. The variation in labour productivity that can be explained by human capital is remarkably large when measured by the sectoral skills, whereas it appears statistically insignificant when measured by the sectoral school attainment. This suggests that using measures of sectoral cognitive skills can represent a major step forward in any future sectoral growth accounting exercise.

Structural Transformation of India: A Quantitative Analysis

This article accounts for the structural transformation of the Indian economy over the recent decades. Empirical estimates imply a relatively higher elasticity of substitution in services than in manufacturing, while the growth rates of labour-augmenting productivity in both of these sectors are of similar magnitude, in contrary to what previous growth accounting exercises suggest. Simulation of a multi-sectoral growth model with these estimates succeeds in replicating the trends of sectoral value-added shares as well as the declining labour shares of value added in manufacturing and services sectors during the sample period. The model improves on previous studies in matching the trends of sectoral shares of employment. Thus, the services sector’s flexibility in factor substitution compared to that of manufacturing can explain, at least in part, the rapid growth of services in the recent period.JEL Classification: O11, O41, O53

Understanding Growth Patterns in US Health Care Expenditures

We study the steady upward trend of Health Care Expenditures (HCE) over GDP for a sample of OECD countries between 1970 and 2007. While the US is clearly an outlier, almost all of the additional increase in US HCE happened during the 1978-1990 period. We perform two growth accounting exercises to explore sources of variability of HCE over GDP across countries. In the first growth accounting exercise based on value added we find that factor accumulation is unable to replicate the observed growth patterns. We also show that the additional increase in markups in the US corporate medical sector mimics well the ratio of HCE over GDP in the US. This suggests that differences in the relative price of health care – rather than technology, product quality, and factor accumulation – could explain the divergent growth patterns of HCE over GDP across these countries. In the second growth accounting exercise, we filter out prices from HCE over GDP, and confirm that there is very little variability for the product quality residual to explain the variation in HCE across countries

Understanding Growth Patterns in US Health Care Expenditures

We study the steady upward trend of Health Care Expenditures (HCE) over GDP for a sample of OECD countries between 1970 and 2007. Although the United States is clearly an outlier, almost all of the additional increase in US HCE happened during the 1978–1990 period. We perform two growth accounting exercises to explore sources of variability of HCE over GDP across countries. In the first growth accounting exercise based on value added we find that factor accumulation is unable to replicate the observed growth patterns. We also show that the additional increase in markups in the US corporate medical sector mimics well the ratio of HCE over GDP in the United States. This suggests that differences in the relative price of health care—rather than technology, product quality, and factor accumulation—could explain the divergent growth patterns of HCE over GDP across these countries. In the second growth accounting exercise, we filter out prices from HCE over GDP, and confirm that there is very little variability for the product quality residual to explain the variation in HCE across countries.

Poland’s uninterrupted growth performance: new growth accounting evidence

ABSTRACTSince 1992 Poland has experienced an exceptionally long spell of output growth that was not interrupted even by the global economic crisis. Using a growth accounting exercise based on new estimates of flows of capital and labour services in the Polish economy during the period 1996–2013, we study the structure of this growth, highlighting the key role of certain supply-side factors. Most notably, unlike other European countries, the Polish economy recorded both a marked increase in capital deepening, a big improvement in workforce composition (driven mostly by educational attainment), and an uninterrupted process of productivity convergence. We also comment on the supply-side factors which contributed to Poland’s relative resilience to the global economic crisis of 2007–2010.

Rent Seeking Activities and Aggregate Economic Performance the Case of Greece

We built upon Angelopoulos et al. (2009) and we employ a dynamic general equilibrium model in order to examine the interrelated role of rent seeking activities, institutions and government policy variables, like tax rates and public spending, on Greece’s economic performance during the last fourty years. We focus on the period 1979-2001. According to Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007) this period can be characterized as a great depression. The model is the standard neoclassical growth model augmented with a government sector and an institutional structure which creates incentives for optimizing agents to engage in rent seeking contests in order to extract rents from the government. This behavior creates a cost to the economy in the form of an unproductive use of resources. Our main findings are as follows: First, in terms of the path of key macroeconomic variables, our model fits the data quite well. Second, by conducting a growth accounting exercise we find that during the period 1979-1995 a non negligible proportion of the decline of total factor productivity (TFP) can be accounted for rent seeking activities. Third, our model produces an index which can be interpreted as a measure of the quality of institutions in the Greek economy. Our model based index exhibits a resemblance with the internal country risk guide (ICRG) index which is widely used in the literature as a proxy for the quality of a country’s institutions.

Long-term growth perspectives in Japan and the Euro area

Euro area countries and Japan are confronted with similar challenges. Potential output is on a declining trend in the Euro area, and the decrease started well before the financial crisis. In Japan, low-output growth is a striking feature since many years, despite the unconventional monetary policy stance and numerous fiscal stimulus programs provided by the government. According to a growth accounting exercise based on a Cobb-Douglas production function, the development in both economies can be traced to a weak evolution of TFP. Weak capital deepening is detected especially in the Euro area. Driven by high uncertainty, the willingness of firms to undertake investment is only modest and constitutes the Achilles’ heel for a smooth recovery. Both economies are not well prepared to manage the demographic challenges caused by an elderly population. Given that debt-to-GDP ratios are already at record heights, the scope for further demand-driven policies is limited, especially in Japan. Instead, structural reforms are on the agenda to promote the framework conditions for higher investment and long-run growth in both regions.

Schooling and productivity growth: evidence from a dual growth accounting application to U.S. states

This paper exploits the dual growth accounting framework to determine the effect of schooling on total-factor productivity (TFP) growth for U.S. states over 1980–2010. The paper contributes to the literature by constructing TFP growth measures, in the process, both real wage growth and real user cost growth measures at the state level. The growth accounting exercise reveals that states display considerable heterogeneity in TFP growth with both real wage growth and real user cost growth equally contributing to it. While our econometric estimates reveal significant TFP growth effects associated with college education, they are considerably lower in magnitude when compared to the earlier studies. Productivity growth effects associated with high school education remain insignificant. Our empirical findings are further validated by the use of instrumental variable estimation to address the endogeneity of the schooling variables and are also robust to the inclusion of a rich set of control variables, alternative TFP growth measures as well as to the tests to draw robust inferences in the presence of weak instruments.

The Debate About the Sources of Growth in East Asia after a Quarter of a Century: Much Ado About Nothing

This paper reviews what the profession has learned during the last 25 years about East Asia’s growth using growth accounting exercises and estimations of production functions. The publication of Alwyn Young’s (1992, 1994, 1995) and Jong-Il Kim and Lawrence Lau’s (1994) studies, and Paul Krugman’s (1994) popularization of the “zero total factor productivity growth” thesis, led to a very important debate within the profession. The paper demystifies this literature by pointing out a major methodological problem inherent in these approaches. This is that the variables used, namely, output, employment, the stock of capital, and the factor shares, are related definitionally through an accounting identity in value terms. As a consequence, results that are believed to reflect a true technological or production relationship are no more than the outcome of manipulating this identity. We show that total factor productivity calculated with value data is not a measure of productivity. We conclude that the debate about the sources of growth in East Asia was much ado about nothing.

Intangible capital in Chinese regional economies: Measurement and analysis

Intangible capital is treated as an important determinant of economic growth in the age of knowledge economy. It has however attracted less attention in China largely due to measurement impediment. This study aims to measure intangible investment and examine its contribution to regional economic growth in China. The results show that both the coastal and interior regions in China enjoyed high growth in intangible investment during 2003–2014, especially after the year 2008. Moreover, it is found that regional disparity in intangible capital is widening and that this trend is mainly driven by the enlarging gap in investment in computer software and architecture designs. In addition, it is observed that economic competency capital is neglected in both regions, implying generally poor enterprise management in China. When intangible capital is considered, growth accounting exercises show higher labor productivity growth together with a larger effect of capital deepening in both regions. Coastal regions tend to benefit more from intangible capital due to the advancement of computerization. If the contribution of computer software in the interior region was as large as that in the coast region, labor productivity growth of the interior would be 0.5 percentage points higher than its current level. Finally, the estimates of the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth would be biased if intangible capital is not considered.

The productivity challenge. What to expect from better-quality labour and capital inputs?

ABSTRACTThe aim of this article is to develop and implement an analytical framework assessing whether better-quality inputs, via a rise of TFP, could compensate an ageing-induced slowing of economic growth. Here ‘better-quality’ means more educated and older/more experienced workforces; and also better-quality capital proxied by its ICT content. Economic theory predicts that these trends should raise TFP. To assess these predictions, we use EU-KLEMS data, with information on the age/education mix of the workforce, as well as the importance on ICT in total capital, for 34 industries within 16 OECD countries, between 1970 and 2005. We generalize the Hellerstein–Neumark labour-quality index method to simultaneously capture workers’ age/experience or education contribution to TFP growth, alongside that of ICT. The conclusion of the article is that the quality of inputs matters for TFP. We find robust microeconometric evidence that better-educated and older/more experienced workers are more productive than their less-educated and younger/less-experienced peers. Also, ICT capital turns out to be more productive than other forms of capital. And when used in a growth accounting exercise covering the 1995–2005 period, these estimates suggest that up to 40% of the recorded TFP growth could be ascribed to the rising quality of inputs.

Long Term Growth Perspectives in Japan and the Euro Area

Euro area countries and Japan are confronted with similar challenges. Potential output is on a falling trend in the euro area, and the decrease started well before the financial crisis. In Japan, low output growth is a striking feature since many years, despite the unconventional monetary policy stance and massive fiscal stimulus programs provided by the government. According to a growth accounting exercise based on a Cobb-Douglas production function, the development in both economies can be traced to a weak evolution of TFP. Weak capital deepening is detected especially in the euro area. Driven by high uncertainty with regard to the business cycle, the willingness of firms to undertake investment is only modest and constitutes the achilles heel for a smooth recovery. Both economies are not well prepared to manage the demographic challenges caused by an elderly population. Given that debt-to-GDP ratios are already at record heights, the scope for further demand driven policies is rather limited, especially in Japan. Instead, structural reforms are on the agenda to promote long run growth and a smooth development of the global economy.

Sectoral Cognitive Skills, R&D, and Productivity: A Cross-Country Cross-Sector Analysis

We focus on human capital measured by education outcomes (skills) and establish the relationship between human capital, R&D investments, and productivity across 12 OECD economies and 17 manufacturing and service industries. Much of the recent literature has relied on school attainment rather than on skills. By making use of data on adult cognitive skills from the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competences (PIAAC), we compute a measure of sectoral human capital defined as the average cognitive skills in the workforce of each country-sector combination. Our results show a strong positive relationship between those cognitive skills and the labour productivity in a country-sector combination. The part of the cross-country cross-sector variation in labour productivity that can be explained by human capital is remarkably large when it is measured by the average sectoral skills whereas it appears statistically insignificant in all our specifications when it is measured by the mere sectoral average school attainment. Our results corroborate the positive link between R&D investments and labour productivity, finding elasticities similar to those of previous studies. This evidence calls for a focus on educational outcomes (rather than on mere school attainment) and it suggests that using a measure of average sectoral cognitive skills can represent a major step forward in any kind of future sectoral growth accounting exercise.

Regional economic growth disparities: A political economy perspective

Regional differences in economic growth have been observed within many countries. Our story emphasises three region-specific factors driving growth—capital, labour and political factors. Conditional on differences in production factor (i.e., labour and capital) variations across democratic states, what role do differences in underlying “political factors” across regions play in accounting for regional growth disparities? We build a political economy model of endogenous growth where regions have the same political institutions, but experience different (and estimable) distributions over voter political biases (i.e., our “political factors”). In our model, political factors affect regional productivity as a consequence of politico-economic equilibrium. We discipline our regional growth accounting exercises by calibrating/estimating each model to American state-level economic and political-survey data. We show that the capital factor is the predominant driving force behind growth in American states. Nevertheless, regional variations in distributions of voter's political biases also account a great deal for regional growth disparities. We also evaluate how much politics would have distorted agents' welfare and regional growth, were regional economies given the opportunity to live under an efficient social planner's allocation system; and, if agents were to live under the same democratic system but where all voters have equal voting influence.

The Productivity Challenge. What to Expect from Better-quality Labour and Capital Inputs?

The aim of this paper is to develop and implement an analytical framework assessing whether inputs, via a rise of TFP, could compensate an ageing-induced slowing of economic growth. Here better-quality means more educated and older/more experienced workforces; and also capital proxied by its ICT content. Economic theory predicts that these trends should raise TFP. To assess these predictions, we use EU-KLEMS data, with information on the age/education mix of the workforce, as well as the importance on ICT in total capital, for 34 industries within 16 OECD countries, between 1970 and 2005. We generalise the Hellerstein-Neumark labour-quality index method to simulateneously capture workers’ age/experience or education contribution to TFP growth, alonside that of ICT. The conclusion of the paper is that the quality of inputs matters for TFP. We find robust microeconometric evidence that better-educated and older/more experienced workers are more productive than their less-educated and younger/less-experienced peers. Also, ICT capital turns out to be more productive than other forms of capital. And when used in a growth accounting exercise covering the 1995-2005 period, these estimates suggest that up to 40% of the recorded TFP growth could be ascribed to the rising quality of inputs.

ICT intermediates and productivity spillovers—Evidence from German and US manufacturing sectors

Recent pre-crisis growth accounting exercises attribute productivity growth accelerations to investments in information and communication technologies (ICT). Stylized facts about a growing US–EU productivity gap are confirmed for Germany, particularly showing no substantially economy-wide ICT effects for German sectors. Tracing the effect from ICT during 1991–2005, this study takes a different view by expanding the value-added concept to gross output including different types of intermediate inputs. The findings suggest that imported intermediate inputs played a more dominating role in Germany, particularly imported non-ICT and ICT materials. In the US, main drivers were domestically-produced non-ICT services and ICT materials, even though imported ICT materials were on the upraise post 1995. Moreover, German TFP growth experienced increasing returns to scale from domestically-produced ICT materials, while US TFP growth originated from imported ICT materials. It will be argued that these different productivity effects stem from different functions of ICT in the production process, which originated in the ICT-production sectors and were passed on to downstream sectors.

Measuring capital services by energy use: an empirical comparative study

ABSTRACTFrom an engineering perspective, the service that a capital good provides is energy conversion – that is, the physical ‘work’ done by a machine. A capital good’s service can thus be measured directly by the energy consumed in production. We show important empirical advantages of this approximation over traditional measures. The empirical application reveals that this approach avoids a number of conceptual problems of the latter. Furthermore, this measure captures the utilization of the capital stock more accurately as it is more sensitive to fluctuations in economic activity. With a growth accounting exercise, it is shown that the differences between the new and the traditional measures are important for empirical work. Using the new measure yields significantly different results. Especially in times of global recession it provides higher and more feasible total factor productivity growth rates.

Schooling and Productivity Growth: Evidence from a Dual Growth Accounting Application to U.S. States

This paper exploits the dual growth accounting framework to determine the effect of schooling on total-factor productivity (TFP) growth for U.S. states over 1980 to 2010. Our growth accounting exercise shows that the current literature, which approximates TFP growth by only real wage growth, severely understates the variation in the former across states. While our econometric estimates reveal significant TFP growth effects associated with college education, they are considerably lower in magnitude when compared to the earlier studies. Productivity growth effects associated with high school education remain insignificant. Our empirical findings are further validated by the use of instrumental variable estimation to address endogeneity of the schooling variables and are also robust to the inclusion of a rich set of control variables, as well as to the tests to draw robust inferences in the presence of weak instruments.

The causes of post-2009 differences in the economic performance of EU countries

This study examines the causes of the rather dissimilar development of individual EU economies after the 2008/09 crisis. The initial elemental analysis of contributions to GDP growth is followed by a growth accounting exercise, with decomposition into the effects of movements in total factor productivity, capital stock, and several labour market indicators. The subsequent section then seeks to clarify to what extent this development was driven by changes in cyclical conditions and the potential product.

Roles of Education in Productivity Growth in Australia, 1860–1939

Despite a significant literature comparing Europe and the USA, and linking education and human capital to growth and development, there is virtually no research in the Australian context which attempts to investigate this link empirically. Australia is an interesting case because it was one of the world's wealthiest nations in the late nineteenth century. The economy was built on agriculture and mining, but there was no obvious evidence of a natural resource curse despite losing ground on the leading nations. This study fills a gap in the literature by examining the effect of education and schooling on productivity growth between 1860 and 1939 using a unique dataset from the colony of Victoria. Using a growth accounting exercise, we examine the role of productivity changes in the overall growth picture of Victoria and Australia as a whole. We find evidence for productivity‐led growth for both. Exploring the relationship between productivity and education measures, we find that while primary school enrolments were important to sustain productivity growth throughout the period, tertiary education was more effective in the first half of the twentieth century.