Growth Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Research Articles

Crop Production Pushes up Greenhouse Gases Emissions in China: Evidence from Carbon Footprint Analysis Based on National Statistics Data

The rapid growth of crop yield in China was maintained by more fossil fuel inputs in the past years, causing concern about the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to crop production. Therefore, this study analyzed historical dynamics of carbon footprint (CF) of 11 major crops in China during 2000–2016 and estimated possible GHG emissions of the system in 2020 under different scenarios. Results indicated that the GHG emissions of the Chinese crop system increased by 20.07% from 2000 to 2016, in which the grain crops contributed to more than 80% of the total emissions. The GHG emissions from grain crops including maize, wheat, and rice as well as sugar crops including sugarcane and sugar beet were increased by 28.07% and 14.27% in the study period, respectively, making up the primary factor of increased GHG emissions of crop system in China. Moreover, if the cropping pattern and agricultural practices is not improved in the future, the GHG emissions from Chinese crop system are estimated to increase by 346.19 million tons in 2020. If advanced agricultural policies and practices are implemented, the GHGs emissions of crop system in China in 2020 are estimated to be 2.92–12.62% lower than that in 2016. Overall, this study illustrated that the crop system in China contributed to the growth of GHG emissions in China over the past decades. Improving utilization efficiency of fertilizers and crop structure in China are the most important ways to reduce GHG emissions from the Chinese crop system.

The future GHG emissions of tourism by Brazilians

ABSTRACT The rapid development of tourism in emerging countries is a major contributor to the sector’s growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An assessment of emissions produced by Brazilian tourists confirms this trend, and reveals the importance of each country’s unique economic, social and environmental factors, which make it difficult to treat emerging countries as a homogenous group. This paper explores the possible futures of Brazilian tourism emissions by using various scenarios, starting with the reconstruction of submarkets based on transport modes and distances travelled, using national sources for the year 2010. A reference scenario shows that GHG emissions are likely to be multiplied by four by 2030 and by eight by 2050. Finally, alternative hypotheses on the driving forces behind Brazilians’ domestic and international tourism are combined and used as building blocks to develop alternative scenarios. The outcome of reasonable mitigation options would maintain tourism’s contribution to national greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 at a level comparable to those currently observed in highly developed countries. However, between 2030 and 2050, tourism emissions would continue to grow, whereas national emissions would diminish. Tourism could therefore become a major burden in national mitigation policies.

Greening the South Africa’s Economy Could Benefit the Food Sector: Evidence from a Carbon Tax Policy Assessment

South Africa has a competitive and viable food production sector which enables the country to be a consistent net exporter of agricultural products. Lately, the business and labour organisations have raised concerns that the government’s intention to implement the carbon tax policy will affect the food supply, subsequently exacerbating the unemployment and food insecurity in the country. Carbon tax is one of the policy tools to be implemented in order to reduce the growing greenhouse gas emissions thus helping the government meets its Paris Agreement commitments. South Africa’s National Treasury released a second draft of the carbon tax bill in 2017, which takes into account the concerns raised by different organisations. In this paper, we evaluate the potential impact of the carbon tax policy on agriculture, food and other sectors using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results show that the carbon tax is an effective policy tool to mitigate emissions, as they decline by 33% relative to the baseline by 2035. This also leads to a welfare loss of R98.326 billion as the country transforms into a green economy. The carbon-intensive sectors like transport, steel and coal-generated electricity experiences significant output decline. However, the agriculture and food sectors show improvements in terms of jobs and production when the carbon tax is implemented. The positive effects on these two sectors are greatly reduced if tax exemptions provided to the agricultural sector are removed and the tax revenue is not recycled in the form of production subsidy to industries.

What causes growth of global greenhouse gas emissions? Evidence from 40 countries

With the growing attention on global warming, understanding the main drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important. This paper investigated the contribution of intrinsic reasons for consumption-based GHG emissions growth using structural decomposition analysis based on world input-output database from 1995 to 2009. The drivers are decomposed into five sub-effects at both country-level and industry-level. The results are as follows: (1) The rapid global economic growth is the dominating driving force. However, a decreasing emission intensity caused by the improvement of energy efficiency and technology innovation can contribute significantly to emission reduction; (2) Key factors contributing to GHG emissions vary in different country groups. The investment effects in developing countries are overwhelming those in developed countries. Instead, the net export effects in developed countries are greater than them in developing countries, which means that developing countries are becoming pollution haven; (3) China and India are still the key contributors of CO2 growth and CH4 growth. In developing countries, the total effects of N2O emissions changes are positive, which is mainly because agriculture plays an important role in these countries; (4) Cluster analysis depicts the relationship between growth of GHG emissions and gross domestic outputs in different countries.

Global Solar Energy Trends and Potential of Building Sector In Hungary

As the present trends show current policies lay more stress on using solar energy and renewable energy sources as some years before. There is a 175 000 TW power of solar energy, which came from the Sun. If it could be exploited, less than 10 % of this would be enough to cover the human economy. The solar energy has an important role in the reduction of the Ecological Footprint of humanity. This research would be offered a survey the global solar energy trends and the potential of building sector in Hungary. Furthermore, also the alternative energy sources appeared in the transport: many governments give financial assistance to the proliferation of electric cars. Government and policy support for renewable energy has increased considerably over the past decade. Two drivers underpin this trend: first, the effort to constrain growth in greenhouse-gas emissions and, second, concerns to diversify the supply mix (promoted particularly by high oil prices, especially in 2005-2008). To address these concerns, more and more governments are adopting targets and taking measures to enhance the share of renewables in the energy mix.

Impacts of battery degradation on state-level energy consumption and GHG emissions from electric vehicle operation in the United States

Electric vehicles (EVs) are promoted to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. Spatially-explicit operation conditions, such as travel demand and ambient temperature, can heavily affect the operation process of EVs and further influence the energy consumption and GHG emissions from EVs. However, the battery degradation of EVs, which are highly sensitive to operation conditions, is usually ignored in existing spatially-explicit EV analyses. Therefore, in order to investigate the impacts of battery degradation on the energy consumption and GHG emissions from EVs in the United States, this analysis applies the state-level operation condition to the EV energy operation model by considering the battery degradation effect on mid-size EVs with a 24 kWh lithium ion manganese oxide (LMO) battery pack. We found that the unit energy consumption and GHG emission growth, owing to a 10-year battery degradation, range from 29.2 Wh/km in Alaska to 127.4 Wh/km in Mississippi, and 0.2 g CO2/km in Vermont to 56.9 g CO2/km in Indiana, respectively.

A three-level framework for balancing the tradeoffs among the energy, water, and air-emission implications within the life-cycle shale gas supply chains

Two critical challenges, namely high water resources consumption and growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are encountered across the current shale gas supply chains. This study presents a three-level modeling framework for economic and environmental life-cycle optimization of the shale gas supply chains. Life cycle analysis (LCA) approach and Stackelberg leader-follower game are integrated into the optimization framework to account for a hierarchical structure.This hierarchical framework is capable of not only addressing the sequential decision-making problem raised by decision makers at different levels (e.g., the whole-system decision maker as a leader and the environment-development decision maker as a follower), but also developing multilevel cooperative control of water management and GHG-emission mitigation. An application to the Marcellus Shale is then given to demonstrate the capabilities of the developed three-level model. An improved leader-follower-interactive solution algorithm based on satisfactory degree is presented to tackle the computational challenge of the three-level program. The overall satisfaction solution is generated for satisfying the goals of different decision makers by compromising the trade-offs among energy, water, and air-emission implications. Optimal solutions with respect to well drilling schedule, shale gas production, freshwater supply, wastewater treatment, GHG emissions, and electricity generation would be obtained. These analyses are capable of helping decision makers adjust their tolerances to make informed decisions for the supply chains. Moreover, the decision making is not kept static but improved by repeatedly communicating with both different models and sensitivity analysis. Through the communications, the robustness and objectivity of the model solutions can further be enhanced.

Responses of aboveground biomass and soil organic carbon to projected future climate change in Inner Mongolian grasslands

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on the grassland ecosystems of Inner Mongolia is important for adaptation of natural resource planning, livestock industries and livelihoods. The CENTURY model was validated against observed climate data from 1981 to 2010 for 16 sites. It simulated grass productivity and soil fertility with acceptable agreement, with the coefficient of the root-mean-square error calculated as 41.0% for biomass and 19.5% for soil organic carbon. The model was then used to assess changes to 2100 in aboveground biomass and soil organic carbon under two different climate-change scenarios that were developed for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The first scenario, RCP4.5 is an intermediate scenario for climate change, incorporating policies and technologies that stabilise growth in greenhouse-gas emissions. The second, RCP8.5, assumes continuing, high demand for energy and increasing greenhouse-gas emissions. Aboveground biomass of meadow and desert steppes responded positively to both scenarios, whereas the typical steppe showed a negative response to RCP4.5 but a positive response to RCP 8.5. Soil organic carbon showed a negative response for all steppe types. The simulations indicated that aboveground biomass and soil organic carbon of Inner Mongolian steppes were sensitive to projected emission scenarios. The CENTURY model predicted aboveground biomass to be 8.5% higher in the longer term (2081–2100) than baseline (1986–2005) under RCP4.5, and 24.3% higher under RCP8.5. Soil organic carbon was predicted to undergo small but significant decreases on average across all sites (1.2% for RCP4.5. 2.9% for RCP8.5). Our results could help decision makers to appreciate the consequences of climate change and plan adaptation strategies.

A review of market‐based climate change regulation in Alberta's oil and gas sector

Alberta has implemented the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation to address the issue of growing greenhouse gas emissions. The regulation allows large emitting facilities to achieve emission reduction targets using market‐based compliance instruments. The goal of this analysis is twofold: (1) Overview market participants, composition, and offset management approaches and (2) discuss future corporate offset strategy options. Market participants are generally weighted toward firms in the electricity generation sector. In the oil and gas sector, while many firms participate in the offset market, a small number dominate. Market composition analysis of program compliance instruments over time offers insights regarding supply and demand. A program‐level view of all market‐based compliance instruments, as well as offset credits specifically, shows how major policy changes can transform market dynamics. Corporate offset management approaches of firms in the oil and gas sector are then analyzed and categorized into one of three approaches: development, sourcing and use, and banking. Based on the analysis, a discussion of future offset strategy options for firms operating under the regulation is provided for a range of policy scenarios. The analysis serves to inform regulated emitters in the private sector exposed to newly enacted or increasingly stringent regulation by assessing the current state of activities and providing insights of emergent strategies. WIREs Energy Environ 2018, 7:e277. doi: 10.1002/wene.277This article is categorized under: Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy and Climate > Climate and Environment Energy and Climate > Economics and Policy Energy Policy and Planning > Climate and Environment

What drives the GHG emission changes of the electric power industry in China? An empirical analysis using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method

ABSTRACTThe electric power industry has often been considered one of the key sectors for energy-saving and emission reduction. It is important to explore the main factors driving the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission changes of this industry. This study applies the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method to analyze disparities in the driving forces from national and regional perspectives. In addition to the factors related to the generation sector, this study puts forward the concepts of power self-sufficiency ratio and available-to-consumed ratio to indicate the influence of factors related to the transmission and distribution sector. The results show that economic activity was the main factor promoting the growth of GHG emissions; the power intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) and population change had smaller promotional effects at the national level; the generation structure and the energy intensity of thermal power were two main contributors to inhibiting the growth of GHG emissions of the national power industry, but they had promotional effects in some provinces; and the energy mix of thermal power and the power self-sufficiency ratio contributed slightly to decreases in the GHG emissions of the power industry, despite their promotional effects in some provinces.

Smart Transportation CO2 Emission Reduction Strategies

Transport represents the sector with the fastest growing greenhouse gas emissions around the world. The main global objective is to reduce energy usage and associated greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. For this study it was analyzed the road transportation system from Brasov Metropolitan area. The study was made for the transportation route that connects Ghimbav city to the main surrounding objectives. In this study ware considered four optimization measures: vehicle fleet renewal; building the detour belt for the city; road increasing the average travel speed; making bicycle lanes; and implementing an urban public transport system for Ghimbav. For each measure it was used a mathematical model to calculate the energy consumption and carbon emissions from the road transportation sector. After all four measures was analyzed is calculated the general energy consumption and CO2 reduction if this are applied from year 2017 to 2020.

Electric Vehicles for Low Carbon Sustainable Development of Transport sector of Developing Asia

Transport sector is one of the largest contributors of energy related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally and is expected to grow 50 percent by 2050. Controlling GHG emission growth of transport sector is necessary in view of limiting the global temperature increase to below 2 degrees Celsius, agreed under Paris Agreement, to avoid extreme Climate Change effects. Further analysis reflects that Electric Vehicles (EV) have great role to play in limiting transport sector emissions. In view of various environmental, climate change and human health related benefits, electric vehicles (EV) is witnessing an increasing trend across the globe, specifically in the developed nations. However, the economics of electric vehicles as well as the physical issues such as charging infrastructure, dependence on grid connected power etc. put a constraint on the fast growth of such vehicles in both, developing and developed economies. Although the Asian developing economies typically have highest growth rate in terms of vehicles usage but due to economic or physical challenges they are unable to deploy the electric vehicles at a swift pace. The principle advantage of battery based electric vehicles is that they are zero-emission at point-of-use. It provides local environmental benefits including cleaner air and reduced noise in urban areas. Overall, EV contributes for the sustainable development of the transport sector and many developed countries have adopted such vehicles on a large scale. Global EV sales were 462,000 during 2015 and it is estimated that EVs will constitute 35% (41 million) of new car sales by 2040. According to the IEA estimates, the US (39%), Japan (16%) and China (12%) are currently the prominent EV stock holding markets globally. This paper includes discussion on various socio economic and environmental benefits of the electric vehicles along with the challenges of its promotion in the developing economies. Further, the paper will also cover the various models for socializing electric vehicles and better adoption as well as policy and other enablers that are crucial for its promotion.

Fusion of multi-source near-surface CO2 concentration data based on high accuracy surface modeling

Under the background of growing greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting global warming, researches about the spatial-temporal variation analysis of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the regional and global scale has become one of the most important topics in the scientific community. Simulating and analyzing the spatial-temporal variation of the carbon dioxide concentration on a global scale under limited observation data has become one of the key problems to be solved in the research field of spatial analysis technology. A new research approach based on high accuracy surface modeling data fusion (HASM-DF) method was proposed in this paper, in which the output of the CO2 concentration of the GEOS-Chem model were taken as driving field, and the observation values of CO2 concentration at ground observation station were taken as accuracy control conditions. The new approach's objective is to fulfill the fusion of the two kinds of CO2 data, and obtain the distribution of CO2 on a global scale with a higher accuracy than the results of GEOS-Chem. Root mean square error (RMSE) was chosen as the basic accuracy index, and the experimental analysis shows that the RMSE of the result of the proposed approach is 1.886 ppm, which is significantly lower than that of the GEOS-Chem's 2.239 ppm. Furthermore, compared with the results created by the interpolation methods used the observation values at stations; the fusion results keep a good spatial heterogeneity similar to the results of GEOS-Chem. This research analyzed the spatial distribution and time series variation of the near-surface CO2 based on the fusion result on a global scale. And it can found that areas such as East Asia, Western North American, Central South America and Central Africa and other region show a relatively high value of the near-surface CO2 concentration. And we also found that the near-surface CO2 concentration changes with season, especially in North America and Eurasia, the near-surface CO2 in summer was significantly lower than winter in these areas.

Analýza indikátoru udržitelného rozvoje v oblasti klimatických změn z hlediska plnění strategie Evropa 2020

The objective of this paper is to present the results of an analysis of the indicator Greenhouse gas emissions (GGE). The GGE is one of the headline indicators tracked under the EU’s main socioeconomic strategy until the year 2020 - the EUROPE 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. In the area of sustainable growth, the Resource-efficient Europe initiative was established. For 2020, the EU has made a unilateral commitment to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions from its 28 member states by 20 % compared to 1990 levels. The GGE indicator shows total man-made emissions of the so-called Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases. It presents annual total emissions in relation to those observed in 1990. The aggregate greenhouse gas emissions are expressed in units of CO2 equivalent. The development of the GGE indicator in the EU and in the Czech Republic from 2000 to 2014 from the point of view of the ability to achieve the Strategy objectives is analyzed. In terms of the level of the analyzed indicator, the set of the EU countries can be divided into two significantly different groups - the euro area and the non-euro area; or into groups by the year of their joining the EU. Analyses of the dependency between the growth of GGE and the GDP growth for both the set of the 28 EU countries and the Czech Republic are presented as well.

Can the Internet Be Greener? [Point of View

In order to counter the trend of growing greenhouse gas emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), tasked with evaluating the impacts of climate change, recommends “efficiency enhancements and behavioral changes, in order to reduce energy demand compared to baseline scenarios without compromising development” as a key mitigation strategy. This is where information and communications technology (ICT) comes into play. On the one hand, ICT can be used as a tool to change users' behaviors toward more sustainable actions (this research area is often referred to as “ICT for Green”). On the other hand, we should limit the carbon footprint of ICT itself, which is already considerable today and expected to keep growing in the coming years (this research area is often referred to as “Green ICT”).

The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of China's Food System: An Analysis of Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

SummaryFood chain systems (FCSs), which begin in agricultural production and end in consumption and waste disposal, play a significant role in China's rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article uses scenario analysis to show China's potential trajectories to a low‐carbon FCS. Between 1996 and 2010, the GHG footprint of China's FCSs increased from 1,308 to 1,618 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2‐eq), although the emissions intensity of all food categories, except for aquatic food, recorded steep declines. We project three scenarios to 2050 based on historical trends and plausible shifts in policies and environmental conditions: reference scenario; technology improvement scenario; and low GHG emissions scenario. The reference scenario is based on existing trends and exhibits a large growth in GHG emissions, increasing from 1,585 Mt CO2‐eq in 2010 to 2,505 Mt CO2‐eq in 2050. In the technology improvement scenario, emissions growth is driven by rising food demand, but that growth will be counterbalanced by gains in agricultural technology, causing GHG emissions to fall to 1,413 Mt CO2‐eq by 2050. Combining technology improvement with the shift to healthier dietary patterns, GHG emissions in the low GHG emissions scenario will decline to 946 Mt CO2‐eq in 2050, a drop of 41.5% compared with the level in 2010. We argue that these are realistic projections and are indeed indicative of China's overall strategy for low‐carbon development. Improving agricultural technology and shifting to a more balanced diet could significantly reduce the GHG footprint of China's FCSs. Furthermore, the transition to a low‐carbon FCS has potential cobenefits for land sustainability and public health.

How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?

Increasing emissions from road transportation endanger China’s objective to reduce national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The unconstrained growth of vehicle GHG emissions are mainly caused by the insufficient improvement of energy efficiency (kilometers traveled per unit energy use) under current policies, which cannot offset the explosion of vehicle activity in China, especially the major southern provinces. More stringent polices are required to decline GHG emissions in these provinces, and thereby help to constrain national total emissions. In this work, we make a provincial-level projection for vehicle growth, energy demand and GHG emissions to evaluate vehicle GHG emission trends under various policy options in China and determine the way to constrain national emissions. Through sensitivity analysis of various single policies, we propose an integrated policy set to assure the objective of peak national vehicle GHG emissions be achieved around 2030. The integrated policy involves decreasing the use of urban light-duty vehicles by 25%, improving fuel economy by 25% by 2035 comparing 2020, and promoting electric vehicles and biofuels. The stringent new policies would allow China to constrain GHG emissions from road transport sector around 2030. This work provides a perspective to understand vehicle GHG emission growth patterns in China’s provinces, and proposes a strong policy combination to constrain national GHG emissions, which can support the achievement of peak GHG emissions by 2030 promised by the Chinese government.

Malaysia’s Rising GHG Emissions and Carbon ‘Lock-In’ Risk: A Review of Malaysian Building Sector Legislation and Policy

Malaysia has rapidly transformed from an agricultural to an industrialized economy in the last four decades, which attributed to the accelerated 235.6% carbon emissions increase from 1990 to 2005. This carbon emission growth was largely due to an increase in national energy demand of 210.7% (1990 to 2004) and rising number of automobiles and industries. In 2009 Malaysia announced a voluntary commitment to reduce 40% of its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 2020 (from 1990 levels). This commitment has not been greeted with much optimism given the limited support from existing legislation and restrained environmental awareness. Without emissions mitigation and conservation policies, Malaysia is unlikely to meet its emissions reduction targets. Malaysia has yet to include any energy efficiency legislation in its growing building sector, particularly in the Uniform Building By-Laws (UBBL). In the absence of such legislation, the Malaysian building sector is likely to lock-in inefficiency for decades into the future, which leads to further growth of GHG emissions. This paper reviews existing Malaysian policies and legislation in the building sector and recommends implementation of mandatory energy efficiency building codes to curb rising GHG emissions and reduce the carbon ‘lockin’ risk.

Analiza dekompozycyjna wzrostu emisji gazów cieplarnianych z transportu samochodowego na przykładzie Polski i Rumunii

W artykule przedstawiono cele unijne z uwzględnieniem zmniejszenia emisji GHG, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem transportu samochodowego i rekomendacji dotyczących tego celu. W dalszej kolejności przedstawiono kwerendę literatury, w której przytoczono badania oparte na metodzie LMDI i odnoszące się do emisji dwutlenku węgla. Kolejna część artykułu zawiera część empiryczną, w której ujęte są badania dla Polski i Rumunii, przedstawiające zmiany GHG w okresie 5-letnim (2008–2012) oraz roczne zmiany GHG w latach 2008–2012. W artykule określono zarówno źródła wzrostu GHG z transportu samochodowego, jak i czynniki je łagodzące.

Optimizing present power distribution system and novel renewable energy sources for Tamil Nadu in India using HOMER

With the growing demand for energy, and subsequently growing greenhouse gas emissions, it is vital to explore alternative cleaner sources of energy and incorporate them into the existing power system before the global resources are depleted and damaged beyond recovery. This paper targets India, an emerging giant, and will explore the integration of renewable resource generation into the power grid, utilizing the smart grid technology. The integration will be investigated through simulation using the HOMER to obtain the optimum system, based on cost of energy and emissions. The simulated scenario is based in Tamil Nadu, a southern state of India, and the proposed model includes looking at the electricity consumption and generation, also scaled down to 0.001%, and exploring ways to improve the electricity grid’s efficiency. This is accomplished by the integration of renewable energy resources, and the demand and supply side management of the utilities. The simulation result shows that the optimal system can include the renewable generations to serve the balance load from existing thermal generation.