Group-based Trajectory Modeling Research Articles

Trajectories of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios during neoadjuvant chemotherapy correlate with short- and long-term outcomes in gastric cancer: a group-based trajectory analysis

BackgroundSystemic inflammatory factors can predict the survival prognosis of gastric cancer (GC) patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). However, whether longitudinal changes in systemic inflammatory factors are associated with short - and long-term outcomes has not been reported.MethodsThis study is a retrospective analysis of 216 patients with advanced gastric cancer who received NACT between January 2011 and June 2019, comparing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for screening suitable inflammatory markers. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to analyze longitudinal changes in inflammatory markers during NACT to identify different potential subgroups and to compare postoperative complications, recurrence-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS) among subgroups.ResultsUltimately, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value in predicting prognosis was included in the GBTM analysis. Three trajectories of NLR were obtained: Stable group (SG) (n = 89), Ascent-descend group (ADG) (n = 80) and Continuous descend group (CDG) (n = 47). Compared with SG, ADG and CDG are associated with an increased risk of postoperative recurrence and death. The median time of RFS and OS of SG was longer than that of ADG and CDG (median RFS 81 vs. 44 and 22 months; median OS 69 vs. 41 and 30 months). In addition, CDG had significantly higher postoperative serious complications than SG and ADG (17 (36.2%) vs. 17 (19.1%) and 12 (15.0%); p = 0.005).ConclusionThere were different trajectories of NLR during NACT, and these potential trajectories were significantly associated with severe postoperative complications, recurrence, and mortality in patients with GC.

Effect of intensity of persistent social isolation on mental health in the late middle-aged and older population: results of the Korea Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2006-2020).

Social isolation (SI) was recently identified as a significant public health issue in the United States. Consequently, several studies on the association between SI and mental health were conducted. However, few studies have considered the duration and intensity of SI. In the present study, a longitudinal analysis was conducted to determine the effect of the intensity of persistent SI on the mental health status of late middle-aged and older Koreans. After excluding missing values, data on 6200 participants were analyzed using the group-based trajectory model (GBTM) from the first to fifth Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLoSA) to categorise the SI trajectory (SIT). The Chi-square test, t-test, analysis of variance, and time-lagged generalised estimation equations were utilised from the fifth to eighth KLoSA to determine the association between SIT and the incidence of cognitive decline (the group with a Korean version Mini-Mental State Examination score of 23 or lower), cognitive function score, and depression score. Four SIT groups were identified in the GBTM analysis. These were the non-SIT (21.7%), mild (46.8%), moderate (21.1%), and severe SIT (10.4%) groups. Compared to the non-SIT group, the severe SIT group experienced a greater incidence of cognitive decline (odds ratio = 1.57, P < 0.0001) as well as poorer cognitive function scores (B = -0.63, P < 0.0001) and depression scores (B = 0.90, P < 0.0001). Furthermore, stratified analysis by sex and age showed that mental health status was inversely proportionate to the intensity of SIT, particularly in males and patients, aged 65 years and above. A close association was observed between SIT and mental health. This finding highlighted the need for policies and institutional measures to reduce the incidence of mental health deterioration among vulnerable groups due to the intensity of SI.

Assessing the performance of group-based trajectory modeling method to discover different patterns of medication adherence.

It is well known that medication adherence is critical to patient outcomes and can decrease patient mortality. The Pharmacy Quality Alliance (PQA) has recognized and identified medication adherence as an important indicator of medication-use quality. Hence, there is a need to use the right methods to assess medication adherence. The PQA has endorsed the proportion of days covered (PDC) as the primary method of measuring adherence. Although easy to calculate, the PDC has however several drawbacks as a method of measuring adherence. PDC is a deterministic approach that cannot capture the complexity of a dynamic phenomenon. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is increasingly proposed as an alternative to capture heterogeneity in medication adherence. The main goal of this paper is to demonstrate, through a simulation study, the ability of GBTM to capture treatment adherence when compared to its deterministic PDC analogue and to the nonparametric longitudinal K-means. A time-varying treatment was generated as a quadratic function of time, baseline, and time-varying covariates. Three trajectory models are considered combining a cat's cradle effect, and a rainbow effect. The performance of GBTM was compared to the PDC and longitudinal K-means using the absolute bias, the variance, the c-statistics, the relative bias, and the relative variance. For all explored scenarios, we find that GBTM performed better in capturing different patterns of medication adherence with lower relative bias and variance even under model misspecification than PDC and longitudinal K-means.

Trajectories and predictors of anxiety and depression among older cancer survivors: a nationally representative cohort study.

The study aimed to describe the long-term trajectories of anxiety and depression among older cancer survivors and examine sociodemographic and health-related predictors of different trajectories. Data were from the National Health and Aging Trends Study. Patient Health Questionnaire-4 was used to assess anxiety and depression. Group-based trajectory model was used to identify the distinct trajectories of anxiety and depression from 2015 to 2021. Design-based multinomial logistic regression was used to examine predictors of different trajectories. All analyses accounted for the complex sample design and survey weights. A total of 1766 older cancer survivors were included representing 8.9 million older cancer survivors. The prevalence of anxiety and depression from 2015 to 2021 ranged from 25.12 to 29.11%. Four trajectories were identified: sustained low-risk (49.0%), deteriorating (24.1%), meliorating (11.0%), and sustained high-risk (16.1%). Potential predictors of high-risk anxiety and depression include older age, female, lower annual income, abnormal BMI, poorer self-rated health, more difficulty in activities of daily living (ADL), and worse cognitive function (P < 0.05). The anxiety and depression progression patterns are heterogeneous among older cancer survivors. The trajectory affiliations could be predicted by sociodemographic and health-related factors, which have the potential to inform targeted clinical strategies (e.g., improve ADL and ameliorate cognitive function). Anxiety and depression are common among older cancer survivors, and long-term trajectories identified by this study might help realize early-stage identification and individualized interventions for mental disorders.

Trajectories of anxiety and depression among Chinese men who have sex with men on pre-exposure prophylaxis: a group-based trajectory model approach

BackgroundAnxiety and depression can influence adherence to Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP). However, there is limited research on the temporal dynamics of anxiety and depression among men who have sex with men (MSM) using PrEP.MethodsFrom December 2018 to November 2020, we administered the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to participants in the China Real-World Oral Intake of PrEP (CROPrEP) to measure their anxiety and depression levels. The group-based trajectory model (GBTM) depicted the dynamic changes of anxiety and depression scores over time.ResultsA total of 1023 MSM were included, with 4523 follow-up assessments. The GBTM categorized the trajectories into three distinct patterns: consistently low (54.8% for anxiety, 60.7% for depression), consistently moderate (39.3% for anxiety, 31.4% for depression), and high but bell-shaped (5.9% for anxiety, 7.9% for depression). Higher anxiety levels were associated with being aged 18–30 years old, earning less than US$619 per month, female-identifying, adopting the bottom sexual role with men, and having two or more anal sex partners in the past three months; similarly, higher depression levels correlated with a monthly income under US$619, female-identifying, sexual behavior as bottom and a positive syphilis at baseline. PrEP adherence was notably lower in the high but bell-shaped anxiety and depression group compared to the other groups, particularly at the 12th-month follow-up.ConclusionsClose monitoring of anxiety and depression levels in MSM on PrEP is crucial. Provision of targeted mental health support is essential to enhance PrEP effectiveness.

Relationship between trajectories of dietary iron intake and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: evidence from a prospective cohort study

BackgroundThe association between dietary iron intake and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains inconsistent. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between trajectories of dietary iron intake and risk of T2DM.MethodsThis study comprised a total of 61,115 participants without a prior T2DM from the UK Biobank database. We used the group-based trajectory model (GBTM) to identify different dietary iron intake trajectories. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between trajectories of dietary iron intake and risk of T2DM.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 4.8 years, a total of 677 T2DM events were observed. Four trajectory groups of dietary iron intake were characterized by the GBTM: trajectory group 1 (with a mean dietary iron intake of 10.9 mg/day), 2 (12.3 mg/day), 3 (14.1 mg/day) and 4 (17.6 mg/day). Trajectory group 3 was significantly associated with a 38% decreased risk of T2DM when compared with trajectory group 1 (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.49–0.79), while group 4 was significantly related with a 30% risk reduction (HR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.54–0.91). Significant effect modifications by obesity (p = 0.04) and history of cardiovascular disease (p < 0.01) were found to the relationship between trajectories of dietary iron intake and the risk of T2DM.ConclusionsWe found that trajectories of dietary iron intake were significantly associated with the risk of T2DM, where the lowest T2DM risk was observed in trajectory group 3 with a mean iron intake of 14.1 mg/day. These findings may highlight the importance of adequate dietary iron intake to the T2DM prevention from a public health perspective. Further studies to assess the relationship between dietary iron intake and risk of T2DM are needed, as well as intervention studies to mitigate the risks of T2DM associated with dietary iron changes.

Predictors of Free Sugars Intake Trajectories across Early Childhood-Results from the SMILE Birth Cohort Study.

Foods and beverages high in free sugars can displace healthier choices and increase the risk of weight gain, dental caries, and noncommunicable diseases. Little is known about the intake of free sugars across early childhood. This study aimed to examine the longitudinal intake from 1 to 5 years of free sugars and identify the independent maternal and child-related predictors of intake in a cohort of Australian children participating in the Study of Mothers' and Infants' Life Events Affecting Oral Health (SMILE). Free sugars intake (FSI) was previously estimated at 1, 2, and 5 years of age, and three distinct FSI trajectories were determined using group-based trajectory modelling analysis. This study utilized multinomial logistic regression to identify the maternal and child-related predictors of the trajectories. The risk of following the 'high and increasing' trajectory of FSI compared to the 'low and fast increasing' trajectory was inversely associated with socio-economic disadvantage (aRRR 0.83; 95% CI 0.75-0.92; p < 0.001), lower for females (aRRR 0.56; 95% CI 0.32-0.98; p = 0.042), and higher in children with two or more older siblings at birth (aRRR 2.32; 95% CI 0.99-5.42; p = 0.052). Differences in trajectories of FSI were evident from an early age and a high trajectory of FSI was associated primarily with socio-economic disadvantage, providing another example of diet quality following a social gradient.

The Association Between Allostatic Load and Frailty Trajectories Among Adults Aged 50+ Years: Mediating Role of Physical Activity.

To identify frailty trajectories and examine its association with allostatic load (AL) and mediating effect of physical activity (PA). This study included 8,082 adults from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging over Waves 4-9. AL was calculated by 14 biological indicators, and a 53-item frailty index was used to evaluate frailty. Frailty trajectories were classified by group-based trajectory modeling, and the mediated effect of PA was tested by causal mediation analysis. Four frailty trajectories were identified: "Robustness" (n = 4,437, 54.9%), "Incident prefrailty" (n = 2,061, 25.5%), "Prefrailty to frailty" (n = 1,136, 14.1%), and "Frailty to severe frailty" (n = 448, 5.5%). High baseline AL was associated with increased odds of "Incident prefrailty," "Prefrailty to frailty," and "Frailty to severe frailty" trajectories. PA demonstrated significant mediated effects in aforementioned associations. AL is significantly associated with the onset and progression of frailty, and such associations are partially mediated by PA.

Factors Associated With Longitudinal Patterns of Hearing Aid Use.

The objectives of this study are to identify patterns of hearing aid usage among U.S. National Health & Aging Trends Study (NHATS) participants and to examine users' characteristics associated with each pattern. Using data from 666 adults ages 65 and above from NHATS, we analyzed individuals' self-reported hearing aid use from eight waves of data, 2011-2018, using group-based trajectory modeling to identify clusters of individuals with similar utilization patterns of use over time. Potential risk factors associated with membership to a specific group included baseline sociodemographic characteristics, problems with activities of daily living, presence of a caregiver, and experiencing problems with their hearing aid. We compute and analyze the odds ratios between individuals' baseline characteristics and group membership. We identified three utilization group patterns: continued use (n = 510, 76.6%), interrupted use (n = 121, 18.2%), and ceased use (n = 35, 5.2%). Individuals with an income under the poverty line had 2.9 (95% CI: 1.09, 7.75) and 2.7 times (95% CI: 1.38, 5.27) the odds of being in the interrupted and ceased use group, respectively, compared with the continued use group. Other risk factors for interrupted and ceased use included lower education and having a caregiver. Nearly a quarter of hearing aid users experience interrupted or ceased use of hearing aids. Socioeconomic factors, such as age, income, and education, may be relevant for how individuals use assistive medical devices over time and could inform policymakers to support maintained use of hearing aids.

Physical activity trajectories and their associations with health outcomes in older adults with mild cognitive impairment or dementia: a national cohort study

BackgroundPhysical activity (PA) is a promising non-pharmacological intervention for this population. However, few studies have investigated their PA trajectories, influencing factors, and their relationship with health outcomes.AimsThe aim was to identify latent trajectories in PA and their determinants in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia, as well as to assess the associations between PA trajectories and health outcomes based on the capability-opportunity-motivation behavior model.MethodsThis is a cohort study. Data were obtained from a national cohort study and included participants aged 60 years and older with MCI or dementia. PA trajectories were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to identify the predictors of PA trajectories. Linear regression models were used to assess the associations between PA trajectories and health outcomes. This study adhered to the STROBE checklist for reporting.ResultsThree distinct PA trajectories were identified: high-decreasing and rebound class (9.34%), moderate-decreasing class (10.31%), and low-increasing class (80.34%). The logistic regression showed that age, sex, education level, body mass index, residence, depressive symptoms, mobility activities of daily life score, frequency of social activities score were PA predictors. Adjusting for sociodemographic variables, only the high-decreasing and rebound class remained significantly associated with worse self-rated health.DiscussionThis study revealed three PA trajectories among older adults with MCI/dementia. Besides sociodemographic variables, addressing physical function and mental health, providing social support are vital for promoting PA in this population.

Long-term impact of weight loss in people with class II obesity on the overall burden of disease: Evidence from the National Health Screening Cohort in Korea

BackgroundObesity is known to increase overall disease burden but does obesity management actually help reduce disease burden? ObjectivesTo investigate the effects of weight loss on disease burden in people with obesity using the National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening Cohort (NHIS-HEALS) in Korea. SettingPure longitudinal observational study using Nationwide cohort database. MethodsOut of 514,866 NHIS-HEALS cohort, participants with class II obesity in Asia-Pacific region (30 ≤ body mass index [BMI] < 35) who underwent health check-up provided by NHIS during 2003–2004 (index date) were included. All final participants continued to receive a total of 5 biennial health check-ups over the next 10 years without missing. A group-based trajectory model (GBTM) was used to categorize subjects based on 10-year BMI change patterns. The changes of co-morbidities, healthcare resource utilization, and medical cost were analyzed. ResultsThe final study subjects (9857) were categorized into 3 trajectory clusters based on the pattern of BMI (kg/m2) change: maintenance (57.35%) with an average change of −.02 ± .06, loss (38.65%) with −.04 ± .08, and substantial loss (4.0%) with −.10 ± .18. The annual increases in the number of co-morbidities per subject in each cluster were .18, .18, and .16 (all P < .001), respectively. The increase of healthcare resource utilization over time was lowest for the substantial loss compared to maintenance and loss. With each passing year, the average annual total healthcare cost increased by ₩21,200 ($16.48, P = .034) and ₩10,500 ($8.16, P = .498) in the maintenance and loss, respectively, but decreased by ₩62,500 ($48.59, P = .032) in the substantial loss. ConclusionsWeight loss in people with obesity was associated with a reduced burden of disease, as evidenced by lower co-morbidity, healthcare resource utilization rate, and decreased medical costs. This study highlights the potential positive long-term impact on Korean society when actively managing weight in individuals with obesity.

Factors affecting cognitive frailty improvement and progression in Taiwanese older adults

BackgroundKnowledge of predictors of cognitive frailty (CF) trajectories is required to develop preventive strategies to delay or reverse the progression from CF to dementia and other adverse outcomes. This 2-year prospective study aimed to investigate factors affecting the progression and improvement of CF in older Taiwanese adults.MethodsIn total, 832 community-dwelling people aged ≥ 65 years were eligible. Fried’s five frailty criteria were used to measure prefrailty and frailty, while cognitive performance was assessed by the Clinical Dementia Rating and Mini-Mental State Examination. Each component of reversible CF and potentially reversible CF was assigned a score, with a total score ranging 0 to 5 points. Two annual follow-up CF assessments were conducted. The group-based trajectory model was applied to identify latent CF trajectory groups, and a multinomial logistic regression was used to examine relationships of explanatory variables with CF trajectories.ResultsAccording to data on 482 subjects who completed the two annual follow-ups, three CF trajectories of robust, improvement, and progression were identified. After adjusting for the baseline CF state, CF progression was significantly associated with an older age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 ~ 1.14), a lower Tinetti balance score (OR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.54 ~ 0.96), a slower gait (OR = 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97 ~ 0.99), and four or more comorbidities (OR = 2.65; 95% CI, 1.19 ~ 5.90), while CF improvement was not significantly associated with any variable except the baseline CF state. In contrast, without adjusting for the baseline CF state, CF progression was significantly associated with an older age, female sex, balance scores, gait velocity, regular exercise, the number of comorbidities, and depression, while CF improvement was significantly associated with female sex, balance scores, and the number of comorbidities.ConclusionsThe baseline CF state, an older age, poorer balance, slower gait, and a high number of comorbidities may contribute to CF progression, while the baseline CF state may account for associations of engaging in regular exercise and depression with CF development.

Trajectories of Sleep Over Midlife and Incident Cardiovascular Disease Events in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation.

Up to 50% of women report sleep problems in midlife, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in women. How chronic poor sleep exposure over decades of midlife is related to CVD risk in women is poorly understood. We tested whether trajectories of insomnia symptoms or sleep duration over midlife were related to subsequent CVD events among SWAN (Study of Women's Health Across the Nation) participants, whose sleep was assessed up to 16 times over 22 years. At baseline, SWAN participants (n=2964) were 42 to 52 years of age, premenopausal or early perimenopausal, not using hormone therapy, and free of CVD. They completed up to 16 visits, including questionnaires assessing insomnia symptoms (trouble falling asleep, waking up several times a night, or waking earlier than planned ≥3 times/week classified as insomnia), typical daily sleep duration, vasomotor symptoms, and depressive symptoms; anthropometric measurements; phlebotomy; and CVD event ascertainment (ie, fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, revascularization). Sleep trajectories (ie, insomnia, sleep duration) were determined by means of group-based trajectory modeling. Sleep trajectories were tested in relation to CVD in Cox proportional hazards models (multivariable models: site, age, race and ethnicity, education, CVD risk factors averaged over visits; additional covariates: vasomotor symptoms, snoring, depression). Four trajectories of insomnia symptoms emerged: low insomnia symptoms (n=1142 [39% of women]), moderate insomnia symptoms decreasing over time (n=564 [19%]), low insomnia symptoms increasing over time (n=590 [20%]), and high insomnia symptoms that persisted (n=668 [23%]). Women with persistently high insomnia symptoms had higher CVD risk (hazard ratio, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.19, 2.46], P=0.004, versus low insomnia; multivariable). Three trajectories of sleep duration emerged: persistently short (~5 hours: n=363 [14%]), moderate (~6 hours: n=1394 [55%]), and moderate to long (~8 hours: n=760 [30%]). Women with persistent short sleep had marginally higher CVD risk (hazard ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 0.98, 2.33], P=0.06, versus moderate; multivariable). Women who had both persistent high insomnia and short sleep had significantly elevated CVD risk (hazard ratio, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.03, 2.98], P=0.04, versus low insomnia and moderate or moderate to long sleep duration; multivariable). Relations of insomnia to CVD persisted when adjusting for vasomotor symptoms, snoring, or depression. Insomnia symptoms, when persistent over midlife or occurring with short sleep, are associated with higher CVD risk among women.

Different bone health progression patterns and early-stage risk marker in glucocorticoid-treated ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Most Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) children suffer bone loss after long-term glucocorticoid (GC) exposure, which induces scoliosis and fragility fractures. To assess the BMD progression pattern and individual medical risk markers for these phenotypes in young ambulatory boys with DMD, and provide evidence-based suggestions for clinical management of bone health. A retrospective longitudinal cohort study of 153 boys with DMD in West China Second University Hospital (2016-2023) was performed. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to study the BMD progression pattern, and potential predictors were further analyzed by logistic regression and survival analysis. One hundred and fifty-three participants were included, 71 of which had more than 3 BMD records. Three BMD trajectories were identified. Baseline BMD and age-started GC and were independent predictors of trajectory attribution. The median survival time of the first observation of low BMD in GC-treated DMD boys was 5.32 (95% CI 4.05-6.59) years, and a significant difference was tested (P < 0.001) among the three trajectory groups. BMD may serve as a novel early indicating marker for monitoring bone fragility for DMD. We proposed a bone health risk stratification through BMD progression trajectory that allows us to adapt the osteoporosis warning sign in DMD from a fixed threshold approach to a more individualized strategy, where baseline BMD and age of glucocorticoid initiation can provide an earlier prediction of bone loss. Better management of primary BMD may be able to delay or avoid the onset of adverse bone health outcomes in the fifth year in children with DMD.

Recalled body silhouette trajectories over the lifespan and oral conditions in adulthood: A cross-sectional analysis of the Paris Prospective Study 3.

To examine the association between life-course body silhouette changes and oral conditions in adulthood. At study recruitment (2008-2012), 5430 adults underwent a full-mouth clinical examination and recalled their body silhouettes at ages 8, 15, 25, 35 and 45. Life-course trajectories of body silhouettes were computed using group-based trajectory modelling. Gingival inflammation, dental plaque, masticatory units, numbers of healthy, missing, decayed and filled teeth at study recruitment were clustered. The associations between body silhouette trajectories and clusters of oral conditions were assessed by multinomial logistic regression. The final analysis included 4472 participants. Five body silhouette trajectories were established: lean-stable (30.0%), lean-increased (19.3%), moderate stable (18.1%), lean-marked increased (25.8%) and heavy stable (6.7%). Three clusters of oral conditions were identified: optimal oral health and preserved masticatory capacity (70.0%, cluster 1), moderate oral health and moderately impaired masticatory capacity (25.4%, cluster 2) and poor oral health and severely impaired masticatory capacity (4.7%, cluster 3). Participants with a lean-increased trajectory were 58% more likely than those with a lean-stable trajectory to be in cluster 3 (aOR 1.58 [95% CI 1.07; 2.35]) relative to cluster 1, independently of covariates measured at study recruitment and including age, sex, smoking, socioeconomic status, BMI, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, cholesterol and triglycerides. A life-course lean-increased body silhouette trajectory is associated with higher likelihood of poor oral health and severely impaired masticatory capacity in adulthood.

Place of care in the last three years of life for Medicare beneficiaries

BackgroundMost older adults prefer aging in place; however, patients with advanced illness often need institutional care. Understanding place of care trajectory patterns may inform patient-centered care planning and health policy decisions. The purpose of this study was to characterize place of care trajectories during the last three years of life.MethodsLinked administrative, claims, and assessment data were analyzed for a 10% random sample cohort of US Medicare beneficiaries who died in 2018, aged fifty or older, and continuously enrolled in Medicare during their last five years of life. A group-based trajectory modeling approach was used to classify beneficiaries based on the proportion of days of institutional care (hospital inpatient or skilled nursing facility) and skilled home care (home health care and home hospice) used in each quarter of the last three years of life. Associations between group membership and sociodemographic and clinical predictors were evaluated.ResultsThe analytic cohort included 199,828 Medicare beneficiaries. Nine place of care trajectory groups were identified, which were categorized into three clusters: home, skilled home care, and institutional care. Over half (59%) of the beneficiaries were in the home cluster, spending their last three years mostly at home, with skilled home care and institutional care use concentrated in the final quarter of life. One-quarter (27%) of beneficiaries were in the skilled home care cluster, with heavy use of skilled home health care and home hospice; the remaining 14% were in the institutional cluster, with heavy use of nursing home and inpatient care. Factors associated with both the skilled home care and institutional care clusters were female sex, Black race, a diagnosis of dementia, and Medicaid insurance. Extended use of skilled home care was more prevalent in southern states, and extended institutional care was more prevalent in midwestern states.ConclusionsThis study identified distinct patterns of place of care trajectories that varied in the timing and duration of institutional and skilled home care use during the last three years of life. Clinical, socioregional, and health policy factors influenced where patients received care. Our findings can help to inform personal and societal care planning.

DOP78 Efficacy of ozanimod by patient response trajectory subgroups identified using group-based trajectory modelling: a post hoc analysis of the phase 3 True North study

Abstract Background Ozanimod (OZA) is approved for the treatment of adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis (UC). A previous post hoc analysis of the phase 3 True North (TN) trial identified 5 discrete groups of patient (pt)-response trajectories to OZA using group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM). The current analysis further evaluated symptomatic, clinical, and mucosal outcomes in these groups. Methods Five trajectory groups were previously identified by GBTM using change from baseline (BL) in partial Mayo score in pts on continuous OZA treatment until W52 (OZA/OZA; N=229): super-response (Group 1; n=38), sustained improvement (Group 2; n=85), partial improvement (Group 3; n=60), fast rebound (Group 4; n=25), and slow rebound (Group 5; n=21) (Schreiber et al. Am J Gastroenterol. 2023;118:S671–2). In each of these groups, symptomatic remission and response were evaluated through W52, and results were compared with placebo (PBO). Clinical and mucosal EPs were evaluated at W10 and/or W52 using nonresponder imputation analysis. Results Significantly more pts in Group 1 vs PBO achieved early symptomatic response on Day (D) 5 (34.2% vs 11.1%; P=0.0002) and remission on D6 (10.5% vs 2.8%; P=0.0264). Symptomatic EPs were sustained for 52 wk in Groups 1–3, whereas Groups 4 and 5 started losing symptomatic efficacy by W18 (Figure 1). The highest proportions of symptomatic remission at W10 were achieved by pts in Groups 1 and 2 (97.4% and 75.3%) and were sustained until W52 (73.7% and 64.7%) (Figure 1A); similarly ~100% of pts in Groups 1 and 2 achieved symptomatic response by W10 and it was sustained in &amp;gt;80% of pts until W52 (Figure 1B). Generally, Groups 1&amp;gt;2&amp;gt;3 had sustained or increased rates of clinical and mucosal EPs from W10 to W52, whereas Groups 4 and 5 had decreased rates of clinical and mucosal EPs at W52 (Table). Corticosteroid (CS)-free remission at W52 was greatest in Groups 1&amp;gt;2&amp;gt;3. Analysis of BL parameters showed that Group 1 had the least prior CS (60.5%), immunomodulator (26.3%), and anti–tumor necrosis factor (TNF) use (23.7%). Conclusion This analysis shows 3 distinctly different OZA populations within the responders, with the super-response Group 1 achieving symptomatic response as early as D5. Early response was related to long-term benefits, with Group 1 (and to a lesser extent with Groups 2 and 3) being more likely to achieve disease control at W52 with OZA. These findings demonstrate the utility of personalized medicine to direct therapeutic choice but need to be confirmed in future prospective cohorts.

P734 Super-responders in patients with moderate-to-severe Crohn’s disease treated with subcutaneous infliximab maintenance therapy: A post hoc analysis of the LIBERTY-CD study

Abstract Background The LIBERTY-CD study demonstrated a broad level of benefit for subcutaneous (SC) infliximab (IFX) maintenance therapy compared with placebo in patients (pts) with moderate-to-severe active Crohn’s disease (CD) who responded to intravenous IFX induction. Characterising subgroups of pts with different levels of response could help to better position SC IFX therapy. Methods This was a post hoc analysis of 231 pts from the CT-P13 SC arm of the randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled LIBERTY-CD study (NCT03945019). Unsupervised group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was conducted to deconvolute cohort-level data into response trajectories. Longitudinal patient reported outcomes (PRO-2: abdominal pain and stool frequency) were used to investigate whether pts who received SC IFX maintenance therapy cluster into response trajectories. Efficacy endpoints (clinical remission, endoscopic response and remission, corticosteroid-free remission and comprehensive disease control [CDC] rate) were analysed and compared between different trajectories. Trough levels of IFX (TLI) were evaluated by trajectory throughout the treatment period. Baseline characteristics were analysed in a descriptive manner to explore predictors for super-response. Results Four distinct trajectories were clearly separated and stabilised around Week (W) 10–14 (Figure): rapid and sustained improvement (super-responders, n=61), rapid, but slightly less drastic than super-responders, then sustained improvement (fast responders, n=56), gradual then sustained improvement (slow responders, n=63) and partial improvement during the maintenance phase (limited responders, n=51). Super-responders had the highest rates of W54 clinical remission (73.8%; p=0.002), endoscopic response (63.9%; p=0.009), corticosteroid-free remission (63.6%; p=0.007), endoscopic remission (42.6%; p=0.094) and CDC (37.7%; p=0.013) among trajectories (Table). Super-responders also maintained the highest TLI from W10 throughout the maintenance period. Super-responders showed a trend towards lower baseline body weight, body mass index and oral corticosteroid use, but higher Crohn’s Disease Activity Index score and prior biologic/Janus kinase inhibitor use compared to other trajectories. Conclusion Distinct subpopulations with different levels of responses were detected by GBTM using data from a large group of pts with moderate-to-severe active CD who were treated with SC IFX for 1 year. Super-responders with rapid and sustained improvements during SC IFX therapy had a higher likelihood of achieving desirable long-term outcomes, with substantial individual benefit (CDC). Baseline characteristics and TLI were associated with super-response.

Association between alcohol consumption and latent fasting blood glucose trajectories among midlife women.

This investigation sought to elucidate the correlations between alcohol intake and trajectories of fasting blood glucose (FBG) among American women in midlife. Our analysis was rooted in the foundational data from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN), a comprehensive longitudinal study centered on US women during their midlife transition. We employed group-based trajectory modeling to chart the FBG trajectories spanning from 1996 to 2005. Employing logistic regression, we gauged the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to draw connections between initial alcohol consumption and FBG trajectory patterns, whilst controlling for predominant potential confounders. Our cohort comprised 2,578 women in midlife, ranging in age from 42 to 52, each having a minimum of three subsequent FPG assessments. We discerned two distinct FBG trajectories: a low-stable pattern (n = 2,467) and a high-decreasing pattern (n = 111). Contrasted with the low-stable group, our data showcased an inverse relationship between alcohol intake and the high-decreasing FBG trajectory in the fully adjusted model 3. The most pronounced reduction was evident in the highest tertile of daily servings of alcoholic beverages (OR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.10-0.52, p < 0.001), percentage of kilocalories sourced from alcoholic beverages (OR: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.16-0.58, p < 0.001), and daily caloric intake from alcoholic beverages (OR: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.16-0.62, p < 0.001). Moderate alcohol consumption may protect against high FPG trajectories in middle-aged women in a dose-response manner. Further researches are needed to investigate this causality in midlife women.

Group-Based Trajectory Modeling to Identify Patterns of Antipsychotic-Associated Weight Gain Among Children and Adolescents.

Antipsychotic-associated weight gain (AAWG) is a common adverse effect of second-generation antipsychotic (SGA) medications among children and adolescents. This study applied group-based trajectory modeling to identify latent trajectories of AAWG among children and adolescents and associated risk factors. This was a retrospective analysis of the IQVIA Ambulatory EMR-US database from 2016 to 2021. The cohort consisted of patients aged 6 to 19 years who were SGA naive and received at least 90 days of continuous SGA prescriptions. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify latent trajectories of AAWG development during a 24-month period since SGA initiation, and multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine the risk factors associated with the identified AAWG trajectories. A total of 16,262 patients were included. Group-based trajectory modeling identified the following 4 distinctive AAWG trajectories: persistent severe weight gain (4.2%), persistent moderate weight gain (20.1%), minor weight change (69.6%), and gradual weight loss (6.1%). Compared with the minor weight change group, younger age (12-17 vs 5-11: odds ratio [OR], 0.634; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.521-0.771), lower baseline body mass index z -score (OR, 0.216; 95% CI, 0.198-0.236), and receiving olanzapine as the initial SGA (olanzapine vs aripiprazole: OR, 1.686; 95% CI, 1.673-1.699) were more likely to follow severe weight gain trajectories. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for comparing severe weight gain versus minor weight change groups and moderate weight vs minor weight change groups in the multinomial regression model were 0.91 and 0.8, respectively. A quarter of pediatric SGA recipients experienced persistent weight gain during the SGA treatment. The risk of having persistent AAWG can be predicted using patient characteristics collected before SGA initiation and the initial SGA agent.