Group-based Trajectory Modeling Research Articles

Depressive symptom trajectories with prolonged rTMS treatment

BackgroundA prolonged repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) treatment course could be beneficial for some patients experiencing major depressive episodes (MDE). We identified trajectories of rTMS response in depressive patients who received an extended rTMS treatment course and sought to determine which trajectories achieved the greatest benefit with a prolonged treatment course. MethodWe applied group-based trajectory modeling to a naturalistic dataset of depressive patients receiving a prolonged course of sequential bilateral rTMS (up to 51 treatment sessions) to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Trajectories of the PHQ-9 with extended treatment courses were characterized, and we explored the association between baseline clinical characteristics and group membership using multinomial logistic regression. ResultsAmong the 324 study participants, four trajectories were identified: “linear response, extended course” (N = 73; 22.5 %); “nonresponse” (N = 23; 7.1 %); “slowed response” (N = 159; 49.1 %); “rapid response, standard treatment length” (N = 69; 21.3 %). Only the “linear response, extended course” group showed considerable clinical improvement after receiving additional rTMS treatments. Greater baseline depressive symptoms were associated with linear response and non-response. ConclusionOur results confirmed the distinctive response trajectories in depressive patients receiving rTMS and further highlighted that prolonged rTMS treatment courses may be beneficial for a subset of patients with higher initial symptom levels and linear early treatment response.

Association between trajectories of adherence to endocrine therapy and risk of treated breast cancer recurrence among US nonmetastatic breast cancer survivors.

Endocrine therapy is the mainstay treatment for breast cancer (BC) to reduce BC recurrence risk. During the first year of endocrine therapy use, nearly 30% of BC survivors are nonadherent, which may increase BC recurrence risk. This study is to examine the association between endocrine therapy adherence trajectories and BC recurrence risk in nonmetastatic BC survivors. This retrospective cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries in the United States (US) with incident nonmetastatic BC followed by endocrine therapy initiation in 2010-2019 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results linked Medicare data. We calculated monthly fill-based proportion of days covered in the first year of endocrine therapy. We applied group-based trajectory models to identify distinct endocrine therapy adherence patterns. After the end of the first-year endocrine therapy trajectory measurement period, we estimated the risk of time to first treated BC recurrence within 4 years using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 5 trajectories of adherence to endocrine therapy in BC Stages 0-I subgroup (n = 28,042) and in Stages II-III subgroup (n = 7781). A trajectory of discontinuation before 6 months accounted for 7.0% in Stages 0-I and 5.8% in Stages II-III subgroups, and this trajectory was associated with an increased treated BC recurrence risk compared to nearly perfect adherence (Stages 0-I: adjusted hazard [aHR] = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.46-2.33; Stages II-III: aHR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.07-1.77). Nearly 7% of BC survivors who discontinued before completing 6 months of treatment was associated with an increased treated BC recurrence risk compared to those with nearly perfect adherence among Medicare nonmetastatic BC survivors.

Trajectories of job insecurity and the probability of poorer mental health among prime working-age Australian women and men

Precarious and insecure employment arrangements are important social determinants of health. Prior evidence has consistently found perceived job insecurity to be associated with poorer mental health. Nonetheless, several key under-researched areas remain in the existing evidence base. This study addresses some of these gaps by examining trajectories of job (in)security and assessing the effect of various persistent job security trajectories on subsequent mental health of both men and women. Utilising 15 waves of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, we employed group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) to identify trajectories of job (in)security through men and women's prime working years (from baseline age of 28–38yrs to 41–51yrs) across 14 years (waves 5–18), before subsequently examining the associations between these estimated trajectories and mental health at wave 19 (aged 42–52yrs). We identified four distinct trajectories of job (in)security for both men and women: persistently secure, becoming more secure, becoming less secure, and persistently insecure. Examining the association between these trajectories and mental health, we found that chronic exposure to any amount of persistent job insecurity (improving, worsening or persistently insecure) is detrimental to the mental health of both men and women. Furthermore, a somewhat incremental or dose dependant effect was found, with persistent job insecurity associated with the largest declines in mental health scores. Given mental health disorders are a substantial cause of disability globally, our study provides evidence that developing policy and practice interventions to reduce job insecurity (as an increasingly recognised and highly modifiable social determinant of mental health) has considerable potential to enact positive population health improvements.

Effect of Oral Bisphosphonate Drug Holiday on Mortality Following Hip Fracture.

Current clinical guidelines recommend a drug holiday after extended use of oral bisphosphonates. However, no studies have investigated the effect of drug holidays before hip fractures on postfracture mortality. This work aimed to investigate the effect of a drug holiday on postfracture mortality in patients with extended use of oral bisphosphonates. This retrospective, population-based cohort study took place among all patients with hip fractures in Victoria, Australia, from 2014 to 2018. Patients were adherent to oral alendronate or risedronate for 5 years or more prior to hip fracture. Group-based trajectory modeling categorized patients into different bisphosphonate usage after 5-year good adherence. The main outcome measure was postfracture mortality. We identified 365 patients with good adherence (medication possession ratio ≥80%) to oral alendronate/risedronate for 5 years or more. Most patients (69%) continued to use oral bisphosphonates until admission for hip fracture; 17% had discontinued for 1 year and 14% had discontinued for 2 years. Postfracture mortality was higher in patients who had discontinued risedronate for 1 year (hazard ratio [HR] 2.37; 95% CI, 1.24-4.53) and 2 years (HR 3.08; 95% CI, 1.48-6.41) prior to hip fracture. No increase or decrease in postfracture mortality was observed in patients who had discontinued alendronate for 1 year (HR 0.59; 95% CI, 0.29-1.18) or 2 years (HR 1.05; 95% CI, 0.57-1.93) prior to hip fracture. Postfracture mortality is higher in people who discontinue risedronate, but not alendronate, for 1 or 2 years after being adherent to treatment for at least 5 years. The type of bisphosphonate may be a factor to consider when planning drug holidays.

Association Between Maternal Fasting Glucose Levels Throughout Pregnancy and Preschoolers' Refractive Errors.

We aimed to investigate the association between maternal fasting plasma glucose (FPG) trajectories during pregnancy and children's refractive errors at 6 years of age. Based on the Ma'anshan Birth Cohort (MABC) in China, a total of 1987 mother-child pairs were included in this study. Using the group-based trajectory model, trajectory fitting was performed on FPG levels during the first, second, and third trimesters of pregnancy. Children's vision was measured at 6 years of age using the standard logarithmic visual acuity E-chart and cycloplegic refraction examination. Logistic regression models and multi-informant generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the association between maternal blood glucose level and 6-year-old children's visual acuity. Children born of mothers with high level FPG trajectory had a higher risk of developing refractive error (odds ratio [OR] = 1.46 [95% CI: 1.08, 1.97]), hypermetropia (OR = 1.64 [95% CI: 1.09, 2.46]), and astigmatism (OR = 1.60 [95% CI: 1.06, 2.41]) at age 6 compared to those with low level trajectory. Maternal blood glucose level in the first (β = -.012 [95% CI: -.024, -.001]) and the second (β = -.016 [95% CI: -.025, -.006]) trimesters was associated with 6-year-old children's distance vision value. High level of FPG trajectories during pregnancy has been observed to be associated with 6-year-old children's refractive error, hypermetropia, and astigmatism. The first and the second trimesters may be critical periods for the effects of maternal blood glucose on children's vision. The long-term effect of maternal glucose metabolism on children's visual development deserves further study.

Prenatal organophosphate esters exposure and neurodevelopment trajectory in infancy: Evidence from the Shanghai Maternal-Child Pairs Cohort

BackgroundConcerns remain about the neurotoxic properties of the ubiquitous organophosphate esters (OPEs), the replacement of the toxicant polybrominated diphenyl ethers. ObjectivesWe examined the associations of prenatal exposure to OPEs and their mixtures with early-life neurodevelopment trajectories. MethodsTotally 1276 mother-child pairs were recruited from the Shanghai Maternal-Child Pairs Cohort. A high-performance liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometer was used to measure the levels of 7 OPEs in cord serum. Ages and Stages Questionnaires was used to examine children's neuropsychological development at 2, 6, 12, and 24 months of age. Group-based trajectory models were applied to derive the neurodevelopmental trajectories. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression model were performed to assess the relationships between OPEs exposure and neurodevelopment and trajectories. Mixtures for widely detected OPEs (n = 4) were investigated using quantile-based g-computation. ResultsTributyl phosphate (TBP), tris (2-butoxy ethyl) phosphate (TBEP), tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCPP), and 2-ethylhexyl diphenyl phosphate (EHDPP), had detection rates >50 %. TDCPP had the highest median concentration (1.02 μg/L) in cord serum. EHDPP concentrations were negatively associated with scores in most domains at 12 months of age, with effect values (β) ranging from −1.89 to −0.57. EHDPP could negatively affect the total ASQ (OR = 1.07, 95 % CI: 1, 1.15) and gross-motor (OR = 1.09, 95 % CI: 1.02, 1.17) trajectory in infancy. Joint exposure to OPEs was associated with decreased scores in the total ASQ, gross-motor, fine-motor and problem-solving domain of 12-month-old infants, with β ranging from −5.93 to −1.25. In addition, the qgcomp models indicated significant positive associations between the concentrations of OPEs mixtures and risks of the persistently low group of the total ASQ, gross-motor and fine-motor development in early childhood. The impact of OPEs was more pronounced in boys. DiscussionOur findings suggested OPEs, especially EHDPP, had a persistently negative effect on neurodevelopment during the first 2 years.

Daily spiritual experiences and allostatic load trajectories: a longitudinal study of midlife African American women.

This study aimed to evaluate the association between daily spiritual experiences and allostatic load (AL) trajectories in midlife African American women. A longitudinal analysis of public-use data from 727 African American women in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) was performed. We included African American women who completed the Daily Spiritual Experiences Scale at SWAN visit 4 (2000-2001) and had AL data at three or more study visits over 7 years. AL was calculated at each visit using 10 biomarkers: systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, C-reactive protein, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, waist-to-hip ratio, fasting serum glucose, triglycerides, and dehydroepiandrosterone. Group-based trajectory modeling identified women with similar patterns of AL. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate associations between daily spiritual experiences (some days or less, most days, daily, many times a day) and AL trajectories. Our sample had a mean ± SD age of 49.9 ± 2.66 years, 47% were early perimenopausal, and 17% earned <$19,999 annually. The mean ± SD AL score was 2.52 ± 1.68. Three AL trajectories were identified: low (35.1%), moderate (44.7%), and high (20.2%). In age-adjusted models, women who reported daily comfort in religion and spirituality were less likely to follow a high AL trajectory (odds ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.18-0.93); the association was attenuated when controlling for depressive symptoms (odds ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.19-1.21). Findings from this study do not support an independent association between spirituality in African American women and AL trajectories in midlife. Studies with a larger sample and additional measures of spirituality are warranted in this population.

Group-based trajectory modeling for fear of cancer recurrence in cancer survivors: a systematic review.

We aimed to systematically review studies that used a group-based trajectory modeling approach to explore the categories of fear of cancer recurrence (FCR) trajectories and their predictors in cancer survivors. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched. Three authors independently reviewed the literature for predefined eligibility criteria. The Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools for Cohort Studies and the Guidelines for Reporting on Latent Trajectory Studies were used to assess the quality of included studies. A qualitative synthesis of the included studies was performed. Ninety-eight studies were retrieved after removing duplicates, and 11 studies met the criteria for inclusion. There are four types of FCR trajectories: stable, decreasing, increasing, and stable-then-decreasing-then-increasing. The following factors were considered significant predictors of FCR trajectory category in at least one of the included studies: age, race, income, education, employment, cancer stage, physical symptoms, depression, anxiety, satisfaction with medical care, and selected cognitive and behavioral factors. There was considerable heterogeneity among the studies included in study design and FCR trajectory results. Factors that significantly predicted FCR trajectory categories mostly focused on psychological characteristics. The correlation of sociodemographic and disease-related predictors with FCR trajectory categories was not consistent among the included studies. We suggest that future scholars should incorporate more psychological factors when identifying cancer survivors who persistently maintain a high level of FCR and developing FCR mitigation measures.

Clinical factors associated with patterns of endocrine therapy adherence in premenopausal breast cancer patients

IntroductionPatients with hormone receptor positive breast cancer are recommended at least five years of adjuvant endocrine therapy, but adherence to this treatment is often suboptimal. We investigated longitudinal trends in adjuvant endocrine therapy (AET) adherence among premenopausal breast cancer patients and identified clinical characteristics, including baseline comorbidities and non-cancer chronic medication use, associated with AET adherence.MethodsWe included stage I–III premenopausal breast cancer patients diagnosed during 2002–2011 and registered in the Danish Breast Cancer Group clinical database who initiated AET. We used group-based trajectory modeling to describe AET adherence patterns. We also linked patients to Danish population-based registries and fit multinomial logistic models to compute odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) associating clinical characteristics with AET adherence patterns.ResultsWe identified three adherence patterns among 4,353 women—high adherers (57%), slow decliners (36%), and rapid decliners (6.9%). Women with stage I disease (vs. stage II; OR: 1.9, 95% CI 1.5, 2.5), without chemotherapy (vs. chemotherapy; OR: 4.3, 95% CI 3.0, 6.1), with prevalent comorbid disease (Charlson Comorbidity Index score ≥ 1 vs. 0; OR: 1.6, 95% CI 1.1, 2.3), and with a history of chronic non-cancer medication use (vs. none; OR: 1.3, 95% CI 1.0, 1.8) were more likely to be rapid decliners compared with high adherers.ConclusionsWomen with stage I cancer, no chemotherapy, higher comorbidity burden, and history of chronic non-cancer medication use were less likely to adhere to AET. Taking steps to promote adherence in these groups of women may reduce their risk of recurrence.

Trajectories of depressive symptom and its association with air pollution: evidence from the Mr. OS and Ms. OS Hong Kong cohort study

BackgroundDepression is a global health priority. Maintaining and delaying depressive symptoms in older adults is a key to healthy aging. This study aimed to identify depressive symptom trajectories, predictors and mortality, while also exploring the relationship between air quality and depressive symptoms in older adults in the Hong Kong community over 14 years.MethodsThis study is a longitudinal study in Hong Kong. The target population was community-dwelling older adults over age 65. Depressive symptoms were measured by the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). Group-based trajectory model was used to identify heterogeneity in longitudinal changes over 14 years and examine the associations between baseline variables and trajectories for different cohort members using multinomial logistic regression. The Kaplan–Meier method was employed to conduct survival analysis and explore the variations in survival probabilities over time among different trajectory group. Linear mixed model was used to explore the relationship between air quality and depressive symptoms.ResultsA total of 2828 older adults were included. Three different trajectories of depressive symptoms in older people were identified: relatively stable (15.4%), late increase (67.1%) and increase (17.5%). Female, more number of chronic diseases, poor cognitive function, and poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL) were significantly associated with other less favorable trajectories compared with participants with stable levels of depressive symptoms. The late increase group had a lower mortality rate than the relatively stable and increased groups. Lower baseline ambient air pollutant exposure to NO2 over 14 years was significantly associated with fewer depressive symptoms.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that a late increase in depressive symptoms was the predominant trend in older Chinese people in Hong Kong. Poorer HRQOL was predictive of less favorable trajectories of depressive symptoms. Ambient air pollution was associated with depressive symptoms. This novel observation strengthens the epidemiological evidence of longitudinal changes in depressive symptoms and associations with late-life exposure to air pollution.

Associations between precarious employment trajectories and mental health among older workers in Germany: Vertical and horizontal inequalities.

The aim of the study was to investigate the longitudinal association between multi-dimensionally measured precarious employment (PE) trajectories and mental health among older employees in Germany. Current data from the German lidA study was used, including panel cases, who participated in all four survey waves (2011, 2014, 2018, 2022). The study comprised 1636 subjects, aged 46 and 52 years at baseline. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to model PE trajectories based on a score combining multiple items from the dimensions employment insecurity and income inadequacy. The association between PE trajectories (2011-2022) and mental health (2022) was tested using weighted logistic regression. We identified a PE trajectory with upward movement that best described 13.6% of the study sample. Representation in this group was socially unequally distributed with noticeably larger shares of female, lower-educated and lower-skilled workers in PE. Women following this trajectory had increased odds [odds ratio (OR) 1.68-1.82] of reporting poor mental health in 2022 compared to their counterparts in constant non-PE. This was not the case for men (OR 0.37-0.51). Our findings highlight horizontal and vertical inequalities with respect to exposure to and consequences of PE. Future labor market reforms should improve protection of women, who will likely be disadvantaged by accumulating employment-related mental health risks over the course of their lives.

Relation of preconception eating behaviours to dietary pattern trajectories and gestational weight gain from preconception to late pregnancy

Studies examining preconception eating behaviours with longitudinal dietary patterns from preconception to late pregnancy as well as gestational weight gain (GWG) are limited. We derived dietary pattern trajectories from preconception to late-pregnancy, and related preconception eating behaviours to these trajectories and GWG. Preconception eating behaviours were assessed using the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire measuring cognitive restraint (CR) – conscious restriction of food intake, emotional eating (EE) – overeating in response to negative emotions, and uncontrolled eating (UE) – overeating with a feeling of lack of control. Dietary intakes were measured at preconception, 20–21 and 34–36 weeks' gestation with food frequency questionnaires. Dietary patterns were determined using factor analysis, and trajectories derived using group-based trajectory modelling. Inadequate and excessive GWG were defined according to Institute of Medicine guidelines based on weights at preconception and the last antenatal visit (median: 38 weeks' gestation). Two dietary patterns were derived: ‘Fast Food, Fried Snacks and Desserts (FFD)’ and ‘Soup, Fish and Vegetables (SFV)’. Adherence trajectories from preconception to late-pregnancy were characterised as consistently high (“stable-high”) and low (“stable-low”). Women with higher UE scores had higher odds of being in the “stable-high” trajectory (n = 34) of the FFD pattern [Odds Ratio (OR): 1.25, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.03, 1.51], compared to “stable-low” (n = 260). Percentages of women with inadequate, adequate or excessive GWG were 21.7% (n = 70), 25.8% (n = 83), and 52.5% (n = 169), respectively; women with higher EE scores had a higher likelihood of excessive GWG [Relative Risk Ratio (RRR): 1.35, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.80], but this association was attenuated after adjusting for preconception body mass index. Eating behaviour interventions to improve dietary patterns among pregnant women may need to start as early as preconception, incorporating strategies to manage UE.

Trajectories of intimate partner violence and their relationship to stress among young women in South Africa: An HPTN 068 study.

One in four South African women will experience intimate partner violence (IPV) in their lifetime, potentially increasing their biological stress. In South Africa, limited IPV and stress research has utilized multiple timepoints or examined modifying factors. Cash transfers (CTs) are associated with reduced IPV and stress and may be an intervention target. We used data-driven methods to identify longitudinal IPV trajectory groups among South African adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), estimate each group's association with stress, and assess modification by a CT. A total of 2,183 South African AGYW ages 13 to 24 years from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 068 study were randomized to a CT or control group. Physical IPV was measured five times (2011-2017), and stress was captured once (2018-2019). Stress measures included the Cohen Stress Scale and stress biomarkers (C-reactive protein (CRP), cytomegalovirus (CMV), herpes simplex virus type-1 (HSV-1)). Group-based trajectory modeling identified IPV trajectories; ordinal logistic regression estimated the association between trajectory group and stress. A two-group quadratic trajectory model was identified (higher trajectory group = 26.7% of AGYW; lower trajectory group = 73.3%). In both groups, the probability of IPV increased from ages 13 to 17 years before declining in early adulthood. However, the higher group's probability peaked later and declined gradually. The higher trajectory group was associated with an increased odds of elevated CRP (OR: 1.41, 95% CI [1.11, 1.80]), but not with other stress measures. The CT modified the relationship with CMV: a positive association was observed among the usual care arm (OR: 1.59, 95% CI [1.11, 2.28]) but not the CT arm (OR: 0.85, 95% CI [0.61, 1.19]). Sustained IPV risk during adolescence was associated with elevated CRP in young adulthood. The relationship between IPV and elevated CMV was attenuated among those receiving a CT, suggesting that CTs could possibly reduce biological stress due to IPV.

The association between trajectory of serum cholesterol, statin dosage, and the risk of recurrent biliary stone diseases

BackgroundStatins may reduce the risk of recurrent gallstone disease by decreasing bile cholesterol saturation and pathogenicity. However, limited studies have investigated this issue. This study aimed to assess whether statin doses and serum cholesterol levels were associated with a decreased risk of recurrent biliary stone diseases after the first event index, with a follow-up time of 15 years. MethodsBased on the Chang Gung Research Database (CGRD) between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2020, we enrolled 68,384 patients with the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision codes of choledocholithiasis. After exclusions, 32,696 patients were divided into non-statin (<28 cDDD, cumulative defined daily doses) (n = 27,929) and statin (≥28 cDDD) (n = 4767) user groups for analysis. Serum cholesterol trajectories were estimated using group-based trajectory modeling (n = 8410). ResultsThe statin users had higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores than the non-statin users. Time-dependent Cox regression analysis showed that statin use >365 cDDD was associated with a significantly lower risk of recurrent biliary stones (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.28, 95% CI, 0.24–0.34; p < 00.0001), acute pancreatitis (aHR = 0.24, 95% CI, 0.17–0.32, p < 00.0001), and cholangitis (aHR = 0.28, 95% CI, 0.25–0.32, p < 00.0001). Cholecystectomy was also a protective factor for recurrent biliary stones (aHR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.37–0.46; p < 00.0001). The higher trajectory serum cholesterol group (Group 3) had a lower risk trend for recurrent biliary stones (aHR = 0.79, p = 0.0700) and a lower risk of cholangitis (aHR = 0.79, p = 0.0071). ConclusionThis study supports the potential benefits of statin use and the role of cholecystectomy in reducing the risk of recurrent biliary stone diseases.

Intertwined depressive and cognitive trajectories and the risk of dementia and death in older adults: a competing risk analysis

BackgroundDepressive symptoms and cognitive impairment often interact, rendering their associations controversial. To date, their joint trajectories and associations with dementia and death remain underexplored.AimsTo explore the interactions between depressive symptoms...

Relationship of various COVID-19 antibody titer with individual characteristics and prediction of future epidemic trend in Xiamen City, China.

Reinfection of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raised concerns about how reliable immunity from infection and vaccination is. With mass testing for the virus halted, understanding the current prevalence of COVID-19 is crucial. This study investigated 1,191 public health workers at the Xiamen Center for Disease Control, focusing on changes in antibody titers and their relationship with individual characteristics. The study began by describing the epidemiological characteristics of the study participants. Multilinear regression (MLR) models were employed to explore the associations between individual attributes and antibody titers. Additionally, group-based trajectory models (GBTMs) were utilized to identify trajectories in antibody titer changes. To predict and simulate future epidemic trends and examine the correlation of antibody decay with epidemics, a high-dimensional transmission dynamics model was constructed. Analysis of epidemiological characteristics revealed significant differences in vaccination status between infected and non-infected groups (χ2=376.706, P<0.05). However, the distribution of antibody titers among the infected and vaccinated populations was not significantly different. The MLR model identified age as a common factor affecting titers of immunoglobulin G (IgG), immunoglobulin M (IgM), and neutralizing antibody (NAb), while other factors showed varying impacts. History of pulmonary disease and hospitalization influenced IgG titer, and factors such as gender, smoking, family history of pulmonary diseases, and hospitalization impacted NAb titers. Age was the sole determinant of IgM titers in this study. GBTM analysis indicated a "gradual decline type" trajectory for IgG (95.65%), while IgM and NAb titers remained stable over the study period. The high-dimensional transmission dynamics model predicted and simulated peak epidemic periods in Xiamen City, which correlated with IgG decay. Age-group-specific simulations revealed a higher incidence and infection rate among individuals aged 30-39 years during both the second and third peaks, followed by those aged 40-49, 50-59, 18-29, and 70-79 years. Our study shows that antibody titer could be influenced by age, previous pulmonary diseases as well as smoking. Furthermore, the decline in IgG titers is consistent with epidemic trends. These findings emphasize the need for further exploration of these factors and the development of optimized self-protection countermeasures against reinfection.

Differences in presurgical MMPI-3 scores across trajectories of recovery from spine surgery.

Approximately 30% of patients who undergo spinal surgery for chronic back pain continue to experience significant pain and disability up to 2 months following surgery. Prior studies have identified mental health variables including depression and anxiety as predictors of poorer postsurgical outcomes using screening instruments, but no studies have examined long-term outcomes using the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-3 (MMPI-3), a commonly used tool used in presurgical psychological evaluations (PPE). Using group-based trajectory modeling and a sample of 404 spine surgery evaluees, the present study examined the trajectories of changes in disability scores from presurgery through 3, 12, and 24 months postsurgery. We then compared scores on MMPI-3 scales between trajectory groups. We identified three trajectory groups of change in disability over time: a rapid-remitting group (8%), characterized by moderate presurgical disability that rapidly and substantially remitted by 12 and 24 months; a steady-recovering group (68%), characterized by moderate presurgical disability, slower change over time, and mild levels of disability at the 2-year time point; and a persisting disability group (24%), characterized by severe presurgical disability that continued into long-term follow-ups. Participants in the persisting pain group produced higher presurgical scores on somatic/cognitive and internalizing MMPI-3 scales than participants in the rapid-remitting and steady-recovering groups. Our results support the clinical utility of the MMPI-3 in PPEs and highlight the importance of evaluating somatic/cognitive concerns and internalizing dysfunction to identify patients who are likely to have poorer postsurgical outcomes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Physical frailty trajectories in older stroke survivors: Findings from a national cohort study.

Physical frailty (PF) is highly prevalent and associated with undesirable outcomes in stroke survivors aged 65 years or older. However, the long-term trajectories of PF are understudied in those older stroke survivors. To identify PF trajectories and relative predictors associated with the PF trajectories in older stroke survivors. This is a secondary analysis of a population-based cohort study in the United States. Six hundred and sixty-three older stroke survivors from the National Health and Ageing Trends Study from 2015 to 2021 were included. PF was operationally assessed based on the Fried Frailty Phenotype. Trajectories were identified by group-based trajectory modelling. The associations between sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, symptoms, cognitive factors and PF trajectories were examined using the design-based logistic regression method. Most older stroke survivors were 75 and older (63.32%), female (53.99%), white (80.54%) and partnered (50.64%). Two PF trajectory groups were identified (Group 1: low risk, robust; 49.47%; Group 2: high risk, deteriorating; 50.53%). Individuals were at a higher risk to be assigned to Group 2 if they were 75-84 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.16, 95% CI: 1.23-3.80) or 85+ years (aOR: 2.77, 95% CI: 1.52-5.04), had fair self-reported health (aOR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.53-5.07) or poor self-reported health (aOR: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.51-7.52), had comorbidities (aOR: 8.44, 95% CI: 1.31-54.42), had breathing problems (aOR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.18-4.02) and had balance problems (aOR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.06-2.73). PF trajectories in older stroke survivors were heterogeneous and were associated with age, self-rated health status, comorbidities, breathing problems and balance problems. Early, routine, dynamic screening for stroke-related physical frailty (PF) and relative predictors might be beneficial for identifying the most vulnerable individuals. Our findings might help develop strategies to manage PF progression. The reporting followed the STROBE guideline.

Pain trajectories and neuropathic pain symptoms following lung cancer surgery: A prospective cohort study.

Persistent postsurgical pain (PPSP) after lung cancer surgery is common and current definitions are based on evaluations at a single time point after surgery. Pain intensity and symptoms may however fluctuate and change over time, and be impacted by multiple and shifting factors. Studies of postoperative recovery patterns and transition from acute to chronic pain are needed for further investigation of preventive measures and treatments to modify unfavourable recovery paths. In this explorative study, 85 patients undergoing surgery due to either presumptive or confirmed lung cancer reported pain intensities bi-monthly for 12 months. Pain trajectories during recovery were investigated, using group-based trajectory modelling. Associations with possible risk factors for PPSP, including clinical variables and anxiety and depression score (HADS), were also explored. A trajectory model containing three 12-month pain recovery groups was computed. One group without PPSP fully recovered (50%) within two to three months. Another group with mild-intensity PPSP followed a protracted recovery trajectory (37%), while incomplete recovery was observed in the last group (13%). Acute postoperative pain and younger age were associated with a less favourable recovery trajectory. More neuropathic pain symptoms were observed in patients with incomplete recovery. Three clinically relevant recovery trajectories were identified, based on comprehensive pain tracking. Higher acute postoperative pain intensity was associated with an unfavourable pain recovery trajectory. Understanding the transition from acute to chronic postoperative pain and identifying preoperative risk factors is essential for the development of targeted treatments and the implementation of preventive measures. This study (1) identified distinct recovery trajectories based on frequent pain assessment follow-ups for 12 months after surgery and (2) evaluated risk factors for unfavourable postoperative pain recovery paths. Findings suggest that early higher postoperative pain intensity is associated with an unfavourable long-term recovery path.

An Officer-Level Examination of the Prevalence and Correlates of Police Body-Worn Camera Activation

Body-worn cameras (BWCs) are intended to promote transparency and accountability. However, officer failure to activate BWCs remains a concern. Research has identified types of incidents associated with activation failure, but has not examined activation as a measure of performance. We examine BWC activation as an officer-level decision-making process, assessing the influence of demographics, assignments, and performance (e.g., proactivity) on activation rates over time. Negative binominal and multinomial logistic regression were used to analyze data from 149 officers assigned to wear BWCs during a randomized-controlled trial. Activation rates ranged from 0–88% of calls-for-service. Group-based trajectory modeling identified three activation trends: decreased, increased then decreased, and increased and tapered off. Limited relationships between officer-level predictors and activation were identified. Findings suggest officer characteristics and performance are not primary drivers of BWC activation. Departments should use supervision, retraining, and policy intervention to ensure BWCs are implemented as intended.