Group-based Trajectory Modeling Research Articles

Trajectories of medical care expenditure in the last year of life associated with long-term care utilization in frail older adults: A retrospective cohort study.

Medical care and long-term care utilization in the last year of life of frail older adults could be a key indicator of their quality of life. This study aimed to identify the medical care expenditure (MCE) trajectories in the last year of life of frail older adults by investigating the association between MCE and long-term care utilization in each trajectory. The retrospective cohort study of three municipalities in Japan included 405 decedents (median age at death, 85 years; 189 women [46.7%]) from a cohort of 1,658 frail older adults aged ≥65 years who were newly certified as support level in the long-term care insurance program from April 2012 to March 2013. This study used long-term care and medical insurance claim data from April 2012 to March 2017. The primary outcome was MCE over the 12 months preceding death. Group-based trajectory modeling was conducted to identify the MCE trajectories. A mixed-effect model was employed to examine the association between long-term care utilization and MCE in each trajectory. Participants were stratified into four groups based on MCE trajectories over the 12 months preceding death as follows: rising (n = 159, 39.3%), persistently high (n = 143, 35.3%), minimal (n = 56, 13.8%), and descending (n = 47, 11.6%) groups. Home-based long-term care utilization was associated with increased MCE in the descending trajectory (coefficient, 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-1.62). Facility-based long-term care utilization was associated with reduced MCE in the rising trajectory (coefficient, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.50-0.69). Both home-based (coefficient, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-0.99) and facility-based (coefficient; 0.53; 95% CI, 0.41-0.63) long-term care utilization were associated with reduced MCE in the persistently high trajectory. These findings may facilitate the integration of medical and long-term care models at the end of life in frail older adults.

Bisphenol AF exposure synergistically increases the risk for suicidality among early adolescents with child maltreatment: A prospective cohort study

BackgroundChild maltreatment (CM) is correlated with suicidality risk among adolescents. Additionally, exposure to bisphenol AF (BPAF) may increase this risk. However, the combined effect of CM and BPAF exposure remains unknown and should be further investigated. MethodsIn this study, 1,475 early adolescents (mean age = 12.48 years) from the Chinese Early Adolescents Cohort were enrolled. Data were collected at three time points with an interval of 12 months between 2019 and 2021. Participants’ history of CM and suicidality (including suicidal ideation and suicidal attempts) were evaluated using a self-report questionnaire. Blood samples were obtained from participants to measure serum BPAF concentrations at baseline. Group-based trajectory modeling was employed to identify different developmental trajectories of suicidality across the three waves. After adjusting for potential confounders, the association between CM and BPAF exposure on suicidal ideation and suicidal attempts was assessed using logistic regression and Poisson regression analyses. ResultsParticipants with CM were associated with a risk of one- and two-year incident suicidality (all ps < 0.05), and BPAF levels were positively associated with two-year incident suicidal ideation (adjusted OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.13–2.50). Additionally, middle and high levels of BPAF exposure synergistically increase the risk for one- and two-year incident suicidal ideation among participants with CM (adjusted ORs = 2.00–3.83). Similarly, participants exposed to high-level BPAF as well as CM were at a greater risk of one- and two-year incident suicidal attempts than those with low-level BPAF exposure and no CM (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRRs] = 2.82–4.34). Moreover, compared with participants with a low developmental trajectory of suicidality across the three waves, high BPAF exposure exhibited a significant synergistic effect on participants with CM in the persistently high suicidal ideation trajectory and the increasing suicidal attempts trajectory (all ps < 0.05). Sex subgroup analysis revealed that females were more susceptible to the synergistic effect of BPAF and CM exposure on suicidality than males. ConclusionsEnvironmental factors and the psychological status of individuals may synergistically increase their susceptibility to suicidality. These results offer novel insights into enhancing our understanding of suicidality among adolescents.

Maternal diet quality trajectories from pregnancy to 3.5 years postpartum and associated maternal factors.

This study examined maternal diet quality trajectories from pregnancy to 3.5 years postpartum and associated maternal factors. Data of 473 Australian women from the Healthy Beginnings Trial were used. A food frequency questionnaire collected dietary intake in pregnancy and 1, 2 and 3.5 years postpartum. Diet quality scores were calculated using the 2013 Dietary Guideline Index (DGI-2013) and RESIDential Environments Guideline Index (RDGI). Group-based trajectory modelling identified diet quality trajectories from pregnancy to 3.5 years postpartum. Multivariable logistic regression investigated factors associated with maternal diet quality trajectories. Two stable trajectories of low or high diet quality were identified for the DGI-2013 and RDGI. Women who smoked had higher odds of following the low versus the high DGI-2013 (OR 1.77; 95%CI 1.15, 2.75) and RDGI (OR 1.80; 95%CI 1.17, 2.78) trajectories, respectively. Women who attended university had lower odds of following the low versus the high DGI-2013 (OR 0.41; 95%CI 0.22, 0.76) and RDGI (OR 0.38; 95%CI 0.21, 0.70) trajectories, respectively. Women who were married had lower odds of following the low versus the high DGI-2013 trajectory (OR 0.39; 95%CI 0.17, 0.89), and women who were unemployed had higher odds of following the low versus the high RDGI trajectory (OR 1.78; 95%CI 1.13, 2.78). Maternal age, country of birth, household composition and pre-pregnancy body mass index were not associated with diet quality trajectories. Maternal diet quality trajectories remained stable from pregnancy to 3.5 years postpartum. Women who smoked, completed high school or less, were not married or were unemployed tended to follow low, stable diet quality trajectories.

Association between multisite musculoskeletal pain and disability trajectories among community-dwelling older adults

BackgroundPain is linked to disability, but how multisite musculoskeletal pain leads to disability over time is not well elaborated.ObjectiveTo examine the associations of multisite musculoskeletal pain with disability among a nationally representative cohort.DesignWe used data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) 2015-22. Disability was assessed by basic activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL).ParticipantsA total of 5557 individuals with multisite musculoskeletal pain dwelling in the community were included in this study.MethodsGroup-based trajectory models were applied to identify distinct profiles of disability in ADL and IADL. Design-based logistic regressions were used to examine associations among multisite musculoskeletal pain, disability, and dual trajectory group memberships, adjusted for sociodemographic, health status, behavioral, and mental characteristics.ResultsPersons who experienced multisite musculoskeletal pain were at higher risk of disability in ADL and IADL. We identified five heterogeneous disability trajectories and named them based on baseline levels and rates of increase over time. Approximately, 52.42% of older adults with multisite musculoskeletal pain were in trajectories with ADL and IADL declines, and 33.60% experienced a rapid decline. Multisite musculoskeletal pain was associated with elevated relative risk for the adverse disability trajectories, which generally increases with multisite musculoskeletal pain frequency and number of sites.ConclusionsPersons with multisite musculoskeletal pain had a higher risk of disability. It is essential to adopt effective pain management strategies to maintain the independent living ability of older adults and to realize active aging.

Olfactory dysfunction and long-term trajectories of sleep disorders among early Parkinson's disease: findings from a longitudinal cohort.

Previous studies have suggested a connection between impaired olfactory function and an increased risk of rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (RBD) in individuals diagnosed with Parkinson's disease (PD). However, there is a gap in knowledge regarding the potential impact of olfactory dysfunction on the long-term patterns of sleep disorders among early PD patients. Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative program included 589 participants with assessments of sleep disorders using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) and RBD Screening Questionnaire (RBDSQ). Olfactory dysfunction at baseline was measured using the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test. Trajectories of sleep disorders over a 5-year follow-up were identified using group-based trajectory modeling, and the relationship between olfactory dysfunction and sleep disorder trajectories was examined through binomial logistic regression. Two distinct trajectories of sleep disorders over the 5-year follow-up period were identified, characterized by maintaining a low or high ESS score and a low or high RBDSQ score. An inversion association was observed between olfactory function measures and trajectories of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) (odds ratio [OR]=0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95, 1.00, P=0.038), after controlling for potential covariates. Similarly, olfactory function showed a significant association with lower trajectories of probable RBD (pRBD) (OR=0.96, 95% CI 0.94, 0.98, P=0.001) among early PD individuals. Consistent findings were replicated across alternative analytical models. Our findings indicated that olfactory dysfunction was associated with unfavorable long-term trajectories of sleep disorders among early Parkinson's disease.

Association between Dietary Patterns during Pregnancy and Children's Neurodevelopment: A Birth Cohort Study.

Research studies have showed that maternal diet may influence fetal neurodevelopment, but most studies have only assessed single nutrients or food groups. To investigate the impact of maternal prenatal dietary patterns during pregnancy on child neurodevelopment. Study participants were obtained from the China National Birth Cohort. The Ages and Stages Questionnaire, Third Edition, was used to assess children's neurodevelopment at 36 months old. Maternal antenatal dietary data were collected over three trimesters using food frequency questionnaires. Five distinct maternal dietary patterns throughout pregnancy were identified by principal component analysis, namely protein- and micronutrient-rich dietary patterns, low-iron dietary patterns, pasta as the staple food dietary patterns, iron-rich dietary patterns, tubers, fruits, and baked food dietary patterns. Group-based trajectory modeling was performed for dietary patterns present in all three periods. Multiple linear regression models were used for statistical analysis. Children of mothers who followed a high protein- and micronutrient-rich dietary pattern trajectory during pregnancy presented better neurodevelopment, including higher gross motor and problem-solving scores. Furthermore, it was observed that children born of women with low-iron dietary patterns had poorer neurodevelopment. In detail, children born to mothers with a low-iron dietary pattern during the first trimester had lower problem-solving scores, while to those who were exposed to a low-iron dietary pattern in the second and third trimesters had lower gross motor scores. Additionally, children with mothers who had a low-iron dietary pattern in the third trimester had lower communication scores. A nutrition-balanced protein- and micronutrient-rich dietary pattern and adequate iron dietary pattern for mothers throughout pregnancy may be beneficial to children's neurodevelopment.

Childhood Trajectories of Paternal and Maternal Psychological Distress and Decision-making in Early Adolescence

AbstractDecision-making is important for adolescent wellbeing, and predictive of several other outcomes. While past research demonstrates the role of maternal psychological distress in adolescent decision-making, the role of paternal psychological distress remains relatively unexplored. This study examined the association between trajectories of paternal and maternal psychological distress, jointly modelled, in childhood and child decision-making in early adolescence. Using data from 9846 families of the Millennium Cohort Study, we identified paternal and maternal psychological distress trajectories across child ages 3–11 using joint group-based trajectory modelling and explored their associations with offspring decision-making at age 11 with multiple linear regression models. Paternal and maternal psychological distress was measured with the Kessler-6 scale, while adolescent decision-making was assessed using the Cambridge Gambling Task. We identified 2 trajectories for fathers (‘low distress’ and ‘moderate-increasing distress’) and 4 for mothers (‘minimal distress’, ‘low distress’, ‘moderate-increasing distress’ and ‘severe distress’). When jointly modelled, paternal and maternal trajectories predicted decision-making in fully adjusted models. Compared to the ‘low distress’ paternal trajectory, the ‘moderate-increasing distress’ paternal trajectory was associated with less delay aversion, although this effect disappeared when examining only two-parent biological families. Compared to the ‘minimal distress’ maternal trajectory, the ‘moderate-increasing distress’ trajectory predicted slower deliberation time, whereas the ‘severe distress’ trajectory predicted greater risk-taking. There were no gender differences in these paths. Consistently moderate and high levels of maternal distress during childhood are associated with increased decision latency and greater risk-taking, respectively, in early adolescence.

Prognostic Impact of Heart Rhythm Shockability Trajectory in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.

This study aimed to investigate the association between the temporal transitions in heart rhythms during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. This was an analysis of the prospectively collected databases in 3 academic hospitals in northern and central Taiwan. Adult patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest transported by emergency medical service between 2015 and 2022 were included. Favorable neurological recovery and survival to hospital discharge were the primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. Time-specific heart rhythm shockability was defined as the probability of shockable rhythms at a particular time point during CPR. The temporal changes in the time-specific heart rhythm shockability were calculated by group-based trajectory modeling. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the association between the trajectory group and outcomes. Subgroup analyses examined the effects of extracorporeal CPR in different trajectories. The study comprised 2118 patients. The median patient age was 69.1 years, and 1376 (65.0%) patients were male. Three distinct trajectories were identified: high-shockability (52 patients; 2.5%), intermediate-shockability (262 patients; 12.4%), and low-shockability (1804 patients; 85.2%) trajectories. The median proportion of shockable rhythms over the course of CPR for the 3 trajectories was 81.7% (interquartile range, 73.2%-100.0%), 26.7% (interquartile range, 16.7%-37.5%), and 0% (interquartile range, 0%-0%), respectively. The multivariable analysis indicated both intermediate- and high-shockability trajectories were associated with favorable neurological recovery (intermediate-shockability: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.98 [95% CI, 2.34-10.59]; high-shockability: aOR, 5.40 [95% CI, 2.03-14.32]) and survival (intermediate-shockability: aOR, 2.46 [95% CI, 1.44-4.18]; high-shockability: aOR, 2.76 [95% CI, 1.20-6.38]). The subgroup analysis further indicated extracorporeal CPR was significantly associated with favorable neurological outcomes (aOR, 4.06 [95% CI, 1.11-14.81]) only in the intermediate-shockability trajectory. Heart rhythm shockability trajectories were associated with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest outcomes, which may be a supplementary factor in guiding the allocation of medical resources, such as extracorporeal CPR.

Development of Restricted and Repetitive Behaviors from 2-19: Stability and Change in Repetitive Sensorimotor, Insistence on Sameness, and Verbal Behaviors in a Longitudinal Study of Autism.

This study examined trajectories of repetitive sensorimotor (RSM), insistence on sameness (IS), and verbal RRBs from ages 2-19 in a well-characterized longitudinal cohort. We also tested the factor structure of the ADI-R restricted and repetitive behavior (RRB) domain at age 19 and the inclusion of a verbal RRBs factor, in addition to previously identified RSM and IS factors, at ages 9 and 19. The ADI-R was administered to 193 participants at five timepoints from 2 to 19. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to examine the factor structure of ADI-R RRB data. Change in RRB subtypes was examined using group-based trajectory modeling and multilevel modeling. RSM and IS behaviors generally decreased from 2 to 19, with some participants experiencing increases from ages 2-9. 46.46% of participants experienced increasing verbal RRBs from 2 to 9, followed by a plateau from 9 to 19. The remaining participants had few to no verbal RRBs throughout development. Multilevel modeling indicated ADOS CSS scores were associated with change in RSM trajectories only. Child IQ was not associated with change in any RRB trajectories. CFA indicated previously-derived RSM and IS factors fit age 19 ADI-R data well. The inclusion of a third factor, verbal RRBs, worsened goodness-of-fit statistics and was ultimately omitted. Our findings suggest the RRB factor structure of the ADI remains consistent into early adulthood and illustrate developmental continuity and change in RRBs. For autistic individuals with fluent speech, RRB presentation may be influenced by verbal ability in ways that are highly variable, but clinically meaningful.

Trajectories of Occupational Cognitive Demands and Risk of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Dementia in Later Life: The HUNT4 70+ Study.

The cognitive reserve hypothesis posits that cognitively stimulating work delays the onset of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. However, the effect of occupational cognitive demands across midlife on the risk of these conditions is unclear. Using a cohort study design, we evaluated the association between registry-based trajectories of occupational cognitive demands from ages 30-65 years and clinically diagnosed MCI and dementia in participants in the HUNT4 70+ Study (2017-19). Group-based trajectory modeling identified trajectories of occupational cognitive demands, measured by the routine task intensity (RTI) index (lower RTI indicates more cognitively demanding occupation) from the Occupational Information Network. Multinomial regression was implemented to estimate the relative risk ratios (RRRs) of MCI and dementia, after adjusting for age, sex, education, income, baseline hypertension, obesity, diabetes, psychiatric impairment, hearing impairment, loneliness, smoking status, and physical inactivity assessed at HUNT1-2 in 1984-1986 and 1995-1997. To handle missing data, we used inverse probability weighting to account for nonparticipation in cognitive testing and multiple imputation. Based on longitudinal RTI scores for 305 unique occupations, 4 RTI trajectory groups were identified (n = 7,003, 49.8% women, age range 69-104 years): low RTI (n = 1,431, 20.4%), intermediate-low RTI (n = 1,578, 22.5%), intermediate-high RTI (n = 2,601, 37.1%), and high RTI (n = 1,393, 19.9%). Participants in the high RTI group had a higher risk of MCI (RRR 1.74, 95% CI 1.41-2.14) and dementia (RRR 1.37, 95% CI 1.01-1.86), after adjusting for age, sex, and education compared with participants in the low RTI group. In a sensitivity analysis, controlling for income and baseline health-related factors, the point estimates were not appreciably changed (RRR 1.66, 95% CI 1.35-2.06 for MCI, and RRR 1.31, 95% CI 0.96-1.78 for dementia). People with a history of cognitively stimulating occupations during their 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s had a lower risk of MCI and dementia older than 70 years, highlighting the importance of occupational cognitive stimulation during midlife for maintaining cognitive function in old age. Further research is required to pinpoint the specific occupational cognitive demands that are most advantageous for maintaining later-life cognitive function.

Longitudinal correlation between poverty and mental health trajectories among low-income populations in China: a group-based dual trajectory model analysis

ABSTRACT This study aims to explore the long-term correlations between poverty and depression among low-income Chinese people. We utilise data from the China Family Panel Study 2010–2018. A group-based dual trajectory model was employed to examine the relationship between poverty and depression trajectories. The results indicate a bi-directional relationship between the distribution of poverty and depression. Moreover, there is a diversity of dynamics associated with poverty and depression. Furthermore, a stronger influence of depression on poverty changes in the interactive relationship. These findings suggest the need to develop targeted policy programmes based on the characteristics of poverty and depression trajectory patterns.

Why do users continue to contribute to darknet Child Sexual Abuse Material forums? Examining social exchange, social capital, and social learning explanations using digital forensic artifacts

BackgroundThe darknet hosts an increasing number of hidden services dedicated to the distribution of child sexual abuse material (CSAM). Given that by contributing CSAM to the forum members subject themselves to criminal prosecution, questions regarding the motivation for members contributing to darknet CSAM forums arise. ObjectiveBuilding on insights gained from research into clearnet communities, here we examine the extent to which social incentives generated by the online CSAM community may explain members' posting behavior on darknet CSAM forums. Participants and settingWe analyze digital forensic artifacts on the online behavior of members of a darknet CSAM forum that was shut down by law enforcement agencies in July 2015. MethodsWe apply group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM), social network analysis, and mixed-effect survival models. ResultsApplying GBTM three posting trajectories can be distinguished. Social network analyses finds the reply network to be more centralized than predicted by chance. Mixed-effect survival models show positive associations between the length of members' first post and the time since members' first registration on the forum and subsequent posting. Contrarily, the number of replies received appears to mitigate subsequent posting. ConclusionsFindings show posting activity on the forum to be concentrated in a minority of forum members who show posting trajectories that are both frequent and persistent. Results further suggest persistence in posting is motivated by social identity and, to a lesser extent, differential association processes.

Gambling participation and risk after COVID-19: Analysis of a population representative longitudinal panel of Australians.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gambling participation and levels of gambling harm across populations during the pandemic is now addressed in a well-established body of empirical literature. This study aimed to measure the longer-term implications of COVID-19 on gambling participation and levels of gambling harm. Population-based cohort study using group-based trajectory modelling. Australia, using gambling participation, problem gambling risk, sociodemographic and psychosocial data from 2019 (pre COVID-19), 2020, 2021 (during COVID-19) and 2023 (post COVID-19). A population representative survey of Australian adults, including four waves collected in April 2019 (n = 2054), November 2020 (n = 3029), October 2021 (n = 3474) and January 2023 (n = 3370), with a subset (n = 3160) of the sample having longitudinal data available. Participants were asked which gambling activities they participated in over the past 12 months for money. Problem gambling risk was measured by the nine-item Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). There was an overall reduction in gambling participation during COVID-19 and return to pre-pandemic levels for most gambling activities by 2023. The longitudinal analysis yielded four trajectories of gambling participation from 2019 to 2023, including individuals who (1) never gambled (25.0% of the longitudinal sample; n= 789); (2) engaged in non-problematic gambling (59.8%; n= 1888); (3) ceased gambling during COVID-19 and started again post pandemic (10.7%; n= 337); and (4) engaged in high risk gambling (4.6%; n= 146), with particular demographic and psychosocial profiles and patterns of participation in specific gambling activities related to these trajectories. Although overall gambling participation rates decreased at the population level in Australia during COVID-19, by 2023 participation in gambling appeared to have nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels. Patterns of gambling behavior before, during and after the pandemic appear to be heterogeneous.

Spousal bereavement and four-year trajectories of medication use: A nationwide register-based study in Swedish older adults.

Medication use around widowhood has been poorly described for most medication classes. Medication use patterns can reflect health consequences of spousal loss, as previously shown for psychotropic drugs. We used data from nationwide health registers (2008-2020) to describe the patterns of use of dispensed medications in all widowed Swedes aged ≥65 years followed between 2 years before and 2 years after spousal death. All prescription drugs used by at least 5% of the cohort were considered according to their therapeutic subgroups (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical [ATC] classification system 2nd level). We used group-based trajectory models to cluster widowed individuals into up to 4 distinct longitudinal patterns of monthly medication use. We ranked the therapeutic subgroups with similar patterns according to their plausibility to reflect potential health effects of spousal loss, compared to those of psycholeptics (mainly anxiolytics, hypnotics) and psychoanaleptics (mainly antidepressants) as the references. From 212,111 widowed adults included (68% female and 70% aged ≥75 years), we observed a significant increasing trend in medication use, especially after spousal death, for 21 out of the 39 different therapeutic subgroups that were used by at least 5% (most represented pharmacological groups: cardiovascular system, nervous system, and alimentary tract and metabolism). This increasing trend often concerned only a small proportion of individuals, with varying magnitude and speed of change in medication use across therapeutic subgroups. The patterns of use of antiepileptics, laxatives, skin emollients/protectives, analgesics, and drugs for anemia, constipation, or peptic ulcers, were the closest to those of references, displaying the largest changes in use, and were therefore ranked as the most likely to reflect health effects of spousal loss. Our results confirmed the increase in psychotropic medications' use in widowed older adults and identified several potential physical health effects of spousal loss that warrant further research.

Joint daily functional trajectory and risk of new-onset Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in older adults with normal and abnormal weight

BackgroundAssociations between daily functional trajectories and new-onset all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) and the role of body weight are underexplored. MethodsData were from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) 1994–2020. Daily function was assessed using (instrumental) activities of daily living ([I]ADLs). All-cause dementia and AD were defined by self- or proxy-reported physician diagnoses. Body weight was assessed using body mass index (BMI) and categorized as normal (18.5 kg/m2 ≤ BMI < 30 kg/m2) and abnormal (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2 or ≥30 kg/m2). The group-based trajectory modeling and Cox proportional hazards regression were utilized. ResultsOf 18,763 adults included, 1236 developed new-onset dementia during a 10-year follow-up. The associations of ADL and IADL limitations at baseline with all-cause dementia and AD were much more pronounced in those with abnormal weight (P for interaction < 0.005). Five joint trajectories of ADL and IADL limitations were identified: No (72.7 %), Recovery (4.0 %), Recent emerging (16.4 %), Early emerging (4.8 %), and Severe (2.1 %). Furthermore, the ‘Severe’ joint trajectory (vs. ‘No’) was associated with 3.57- and 3.59-times higher risks of new-onset all-cause dementia and AD in participants with abnormal weight (P for interaction = 0.002 and 0.005). Notably, the Recovery joint trajectory (vs. No) was not associated with increased risks of all-cause dementia or AD. LimitationsSelf-/proxy-reported all-cause dementia and AD may introduce misclassification bias. Lifestyle factors were not quantified. BMI at baseline, but not its trajectory, was utilized. Potential reverse causation deserved attention. ConclusionsBody weight control can help reduce the risk of progression from functional limitations to all-cause dementia and AD.

Effect of social participation on the trajectories of activities of daily living disability among community-dwelling older adults: a 7-year community-based cohort

IntroductionStudies examining the effects of social participation on activities of daily living (ADL) disability are still scarce.AimTo assess the reciprocal relationship between ADL disability trajectories and social participation among older Chinese people aged ≥ 60 years.MethodsThis study included 2976 participants aged ≥ 60 years in six waves of a community-based survey from 2015 to 2022. Basic activities of daily living (BADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) were used to assess the ADL disability in each survey. Social participation was assessed by involvement in four social activities and an extensive social participation score. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify potential heterogeneity in longitudinal changes over 7 years and explore associations between baseline predictors of group membership and these trajectories.ResultsTwo BADL disability trajectories were identified: stable (94.8%) and increase (5.2%). Additionally, three IADL disability trajectories were distinguished: stable (73.2%), moderate (20.2%), and increase (6.6%). After controlling for the potential covariates, each point increase in the extensive social participation score correlated with a 17% decrease in the odds of older individuals belonging to the increase BADL trajectory group (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.68–1.00). For IADL, it decreased the odds of being assigned to the moderate trajectory group by 16% (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.75–0.95) and to the increase trajectory group by 23% (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.64–0.93).ConclusionsHigher levels of social participation among older individuals were more likely to be classified as stable trajectories in both BADL and IADL. Increased participation in social activities by community-dwelling elderly adults may promote healthy aging.

Association between serum albumin concentration change trajectory and risk of hypertension: a cohort study in China.

We sought to assess the risk of hypertension based on the trajectory of changes in serum albumin concentrations. A total of 11,946 nonhypertension adults aged 30-60 years who underwent at least 3 medical examinations between 2009 and 2016 were included in this study. Group-based trajectory models were obtained for 4 category groups, and logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each category group of serum albumin concentration and the risk of hypertension. During a mean follow-up period of 4.30 years, 1,537 hypertension events occurred in 11,946 subjects without hypertension. A high stable trajectory of serum albumin concentrations (OR, 0.70, 95% CI, 0.51-0.96) was associated with a significantly lower risk of developing hypertension. The results of the sensitivity analysis of the high stable trajectory (OR, 0.64, 95% CI, 0.43-0.96) remained statistically significant. Subjects with normal weight and those ≥45 years of age had a significantly lower risk of hypertension at moderate increase (P = 0.053 or 0.026) and high stable trajectories (P = 0.011 or 0.016). In males and overweight subjects, the risk of hypertension was significantly lower in the high stable trajectory (P = 0.038 or 0.044). In this study, we found that moderate increase in serum albumin concentrations and a high stable trajectory were significantly associated with a reduced risk of hypertension in subjects aged ≥45 years and those with normal weight and that high stable serum albumin concentrations were significantly associated with a reduced risk of hypertension in males and overweight subjects.

The role of social-evaluative threat for cortisol profiles in response to psychosocial stress: A person-centered approach.

Heterogeneity in individuals' physiological stress responses is central to theories linking stress with vulnerability to disease. Although multiple cortisol profiles have been reported in response to acute psychological stress, most prior work focuses on a single, average pattern and relative deviations from it, such as greater or lesser response peaks or reactivity. The present aims were to identify cortisol stress response trajectory classes using a data-driven approach and test whether social-evaluative threat (SET), a reliable elicitor of cortisol, predicted a greater likelihood of membership in the more reactive profiles. Data were pooled from 13 acute laboratory stressor studies from two geographically distinct U.S. university communities. Participants included 1,258 adults ranging from 18 to 52 years (Mage = 20.5; 62% women; 38% men) with diverse racial/ethnic identities and socioeconomic statuses. Studies included a version of the Trier Social Stress Test and at least three salivary cortisol assessments. SET was tested in three ways: study conditions with evaluators present, perceptions of evaluation, and ratings of shame-related emotions. Latent group-based trajectory modeling was applied to identify cortisol response patterns that best fit the data. Results revealed five unique cortisol response profiles. Consistent with hypotheses, SET conditions, greater perceived evaluation, and greater shame-related emotions predicted membership in the most reactive response trajectories. The findings highlight the high degree of heterogeneity that characterizes cortisol stress response profiles, which has important implications for theories of stress and health and methodological approaches in future research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Longitudinal neurocognitive trajectories and risk factors in the first three months following pediatric concussion

ABSTRACT Objective To identify differential trajectories of neurocognitive outcomes following pediatric concussion and investigate predictors associated with patterns of recovery up to 3 months. Methods 74 participants aged 8–17 years completed attention/working memory, processing speed, and executive function measures at 2 weeks, 1 month, and 3 months post-injury. We used principal component analysis to generate a composite of information processing. Group-based trajectory modeling identified latent trajectories. Multinominal logistic regression was used to examine associations between risk factors and trajectory groups. Results We identified three trajectories of neurocognitive outcomes. The medium (54.6%) and high improving groups (35.8%) showed ongoing increase in information processing, while the low persistent group showed limited change 3 months post-injury. This group recorded below average scores on Digit Span Forward and Backward at 3 months. History of pre-injury headache was significantly associated with the persistent low scoring group, relative to the medium improving (p = 0.03) but not the high improving group (p = 0.09). Conclusions This study indicates variability in neurocognitive outcomes according to three differential trajectories, with groups partially distinguished by preexisting child factors (history of frequent headaches). Modelling that accounts for heterogeneity in individual outcomes is essential to identify clinically meaningful indices that are indicative of children requiring intervention.

Abstract PO2-12-01: Five-year quality of life (QOL) trajectories among young breast cancer (BC) survivors

Abstract Background: Young BC survivors are at risk for impaired QOL in part due to issues that are unique to their life stage. We sought to characterize trajectories of QOL in the 5 years following diagnosis among young BC survivors as well as evaluate patient and clinical characteristics associated with poorer or deteriorating QOL trajectories over time. Methods: Women diagnosed with stage I-III BC at age ≤40 enrolled in the Young Women’s BC Study, a prospective cohort in North America, who completed ≥2 study surveys through 5 years of post-diagnosis follow-up. QOL was evaluated with the Cancer Rehabilitation Evaluation System (CARES) physical, psychosocial, and sexual subscale scores. Demographic, treatment, and clinical characteristics were ascertained through surveys and chart review. Longitudinal trajectories for each CARES subscale were defined using group-based trajectory modeling; associations between patient/clinical characteristics and trajectory group membership were estimated for each subscale using multivariable multinomial logistic regression. Results: Among 900 women, median age at diagnosis was 36 (range: 17-40) 89% were white, 2% Black, and 4% Hispanic. At baseline, 73% were partnered, 61% parous and 49% perceived themselves as financially comfortable. Most had hormone-receptor positive (74%), HER2-negative (70%) BC, and most received chemotherapy (82%); 36% underwent mastectomy with radiation. Physical and psychosocial scores each clustered into 4 trajectories, with &amp;gt;75% of participants clustering in groups reflecting excellent or good QOL that was stable over time and few (6% for physical and 4% for psychosocial) clustering into groups that reflected poorer QOL at baseline that did not improve over time. Sexual health trajectories were more variable, clustering into 5 trajectories, with over half of participants clustered into groups reflecting good (35%) or excellent (20%) QOL that remained relatively stable over time, 22% clustered into a trajectory that was poor at baseline but moderately improved over follow-up, 13% in a group that reflected deteriorating from moderate-to-poor QOL and 11% in a group with poor QOL at baseline that did not improve over time. In multivariable regression analyses (Table), factors associated with clustering in a poorer trajectory (vs. clustering in an excellent trajectory), in multiple QOL domains included baseline financial discomfort (associated with poorer QOL across all 3 domains), mastectomy+radiation (vs. lumpectomy, associated with poorer QOL across all 3 domains); chemotherapy receipt (associated with poorer physical and sexual health trajectories); and baseline BMI &amp;gt;25 (vs. 18.5-24.9, associated with poorer physical and poorer/deteriorating sexual health trajectories). Conclusions: Young BC survivors follow distinct QOL trajectories in survivorship. While most will not experience substantial QOL impairment through the first 5 years following diagnosis, a substantial minority report persistently poor or deteriorating QOL. The association between more extensive local therapy and poorer physical/psychosocial/sexual health trajectories underscores the importance of communicating the potential for negative QOL outcomes when women are making surgical decisions. Additionally, the pervasive impact of financial wellbeing on multiple QOL domains supports the potential value of systematic screening for and addressing of financial distress to prevent or mitigate financial toxicity in survivorship Factors associated with clustering in poorer/deteriorating (vs. excellent) QOL trajectories *Reference trajectory=excellent QOL Citation Format: Tal Sella, Zheng Yue, Kathryn Ruddy, Shari Gelber, Rulla Tamimi, Jeffrey Peppercorn, Lidia Schapira, Virginia Borges, Steven Come, Eric Winer, Ann Partridge, Shoshana Rosenberg. Five-year quality of life (QOL) trajectories among young breast cancer (BC) survivors [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO2-12-01.