Group-based Trajectory Modeling Research Articles

Predictive value of the random forest model based on bioelectrical impedance analysis parameter trajectories for short-term prognosis in stroke patients

BackgroundThe short-term prognosis of stroke patients is mainly influenced by the severity of the primary disease at admission and the trend of disease development during the acute phase (1–7 days after admission).ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to explore the relationship between the bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) parameter trajectories during the acute phase of stroke patients and their short-term prognosis, and to investigate the predictive value of the prediction model constructed using BIA parameter trajectories and clinical indicators at admission for short-term prognosis in stroke patients.MethodsA total of 162 stroke patients were prospectively enrolled, and their clinical indicators at admission and BIA parameters during the first 1–7 days of admission were collected. A Group-Based Trajectory Model (GBTM) was employed to identify different subgroups of longitudinal trajectories of BIA parameters during the first 1–7 days of admission in stroke patients. The random forest algorithm was applied to screen BIA parameter trajectories and clinical indicators with predictive value, construct prediction models, and perform model comparisons. The outcome measure was the Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at discharge.ResultsPA in BIA parameters can be divided into four separate trajectory groups. The incidence of poor prognosis (mRS: 4–6) at discharge was significantly higher in the “Low PA Rapid Decline Group” (85.0%) than in the “High PA Stable Group “ (33.3%) and in the “Medium PA Slow Decline Group “(29.5%) (all P < 0.05). In-hospital mortality was the highest in the “Low PA Rapid Decline Group” (60%) compared with the remaining trajectory groups (P < 0.05). Compared with the prediction model with only clinical indicators (Model 1), the prediction model with PA trajectories (Model 2) demonstrated higher predictive accuracy and efficacy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of Model 2 was 0.909 [95% CI 0.863, 0.956], integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI), 0.035 (P < 0.001), and net reclassification improvement (NRI), 0.175 (P = 0.031).ConclusionPA trajectories during the first 1–7 days of admission are associated with the short-term prognosis of stroke patients. PA trajectories have additional value in predicting the short-term prognosis of stroke patients.

Association between blood pressure multi-trajectory and cardiovascular disease among a Chinese elderly medical examination population.

This study aimed to characterize multivariate trajectories of blood pressure [systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP)] jointly and examine their impact on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) among a Chinese elderly medical examination population. A total of 13,504 individuals without CVD during 2018-2020 were included from the Chinese geriatric physical examination cohort study. The group-based trajectory model was used to construct multi-trajectories of systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure. The primary outcome was the incidence of the first CVD events, consisting of stroke and coronary heart diseases, in 2021. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between BP multi-trajectories and incident CVD events. We identified four blood pressure (BP) subclasses, summarized by their SBP and DBP levels from low to high as class 1 (7.16%), class 2 (55.17%), class 3 (32.26%), and class 4 (5.41%). In 2021, we documented 890 incident CVD events. Compared with participants in class 1, adjusted HRs were 1.56 (95% CI: 1.12-2.19) for class 2, 1.75 (95% CI: 1.24-2.47) for class 3, and 1.88 (95% CI: 1.24-2.85) for class 4 after adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and metabolic index. Individuals aged 65 years and above with higher levels of BP trajectories had higher risks of CVD events in China. Individuals with higher levels of both SBP and DBP trajectories over time were associated with an increased risk of incident CVD in the Chinese elderly population.

Caries trajectories from childhood to adolescence: Analysis of data from a nationwide school dental service.

The aim of the study was to assess patterns of longitudinal changes in caries status among school-going children in Singapore. Dental records for a single cohort of students who received dental examinations in six standard examination years between 2009 and 2017 were analysed (n = 24 699). Group-based trajectory modelling with a zero-inflated Poisson distribution was carried out to determine dental caries trajectories in the permanent dentition. Associations between sociodemographic factors and trajectory group membership were assessed using multinomial logistic regression. The predicted population distribution across the four caries trajectory groups identified was 65.0% ('none'), 16.8% ('low'), 14.8% ('medium') and 3.4% ('high'). The 'none' trajectory group had a decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) score of 0 throughout the 8 years. Higher baseline DMFT counts and nonlinear increases in DMFT scores were noted for the 'low', 'medium' and 'high' trajectory groups. The correlation coefficient between DMFT counts in years 6 and 8 was 0.91, as compared to 0.77 between baseline and year 1. Factors associated with the 'high' caries trajectory include lower socio-economic status, female gender, Chinese race (compared to the Indian race), enrolment in primary schools in the Eastern and Western regions of Singapore, and enrolment in public secondary schools. Under a nationwide school dental service, four trajectory patterns of caries counts in the permanent dentition were identified over 8 years. Among students in the 'low', 'medium' and 'high' trajectory groups, greater caries increment was noted during the transition from primary to secondary school. The correlation between DMFT counts in successive examinations was stronger in older than younger ages.

Prenatal exposure to PM2.5 and childhood body mass index growth trajectories from birth to 6 years old

This study aimed to determine the relationships between prenatal PM2.5 exposure and childhood growth trajectories during the first 6 years of life. A total of 47,625 pairs of mothers and children were recruited from a prospective birth cohort conducted between 2011 and 2013 in Wuhan, China, and followed for 6 years. We used the group-based trajectory models to classify the population into three trajectory groups: slow growth (n = 13,671, 28.7%), normal growth (n = 29,736, 62.4%), and rapid growth (n = 4218, 8.9%). Multinomial logistic regression models were used to determine the associations of prenatal PM2.5 exposure and childhood growth trajectories. Compared to normal growth trajectory, increased PM2.5 exposure in trimester 1, trimester 2 and the entire pregnancy showed significant associations with an increased risk of the slow growth trajectory but reduced the risk for the rapid growth trajectory, significant association of prenatal PM2.5 exposure with rapid growth trajectory was only observed in the trimester 3. Stratified analyses displayed relatively stronger associations among those mothers with maternal age over 35 years, pre-pregnancy BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2, and previous delivery experience. Prenatal exposure to PM2.5, particularly during the midpoint period of pregnancy, was more likely to have a slow growth trajectory and a lower risk of rapid growth trajectory. Maternal age, pre-pregnancy BMI, and previous delivery experience might modify these associations.

Trajectories of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Intake in Early Life: Evidence from a Birth Cohort Study.

Infancy and early childhood are periods of dietary transition. Early exposure to specific foods and the establishment of dietary habits during this period can shape long-term food preferences and have lasting effects on health. This study aimed to examine the longitudinal trajectories of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake in Australian children from birth to age 3 years and identify early-life and socioeconomic factors influencing those trajectories. Mother-infant dyads (n = 934) from the Healthy Smiles Healthy Kids birth cohort study were interviewed on their weekly frequency of SSB intake at 4-month, 8-month, 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year age points. Group-based trajectory modelling analysis was performed to identify trajectories for SSB intake among Australian children. A multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify the maternal and child-related predictors of resulting trajectories. The intake of SSBs showed two distinct quadratic trajectories (high and low) with age. While the two trajectories remained distinctive throughout, the SSB consumption for both groups consistently increased between 4 months and 2 years of age and subsequently stabilised. Compared to low SSB consumers (75%), the high SSB consumers (25%) were significantly more likely to be living in households with three or more children (relative risk (RR): 1.59, 95%CI: 1.02-2.48), had low maternal education (left school < year 12-RR: 1.75, 95%CI: 1.09-2.81; completed year 12-RR: 1.57, 95%CI: 1.02-2.81), and resided in highly/the most socioeconomically disadvantaged areas (highly disadvantaged-RR: 1.89, 95%CI: 1.13-3.18; most disadvantaged-RR: 2.06, 95%CI: 1.25-3.38). Children's SSB intake patterns are established early in life as they transition from infancy to preschool age, and the trajectories of intake established during early childhood are strongly influenced by socioeconomic factors. Hence, interventions targeted to limit SSB intake and improve nutrition amongst children should occur in early life.

Trajectories in long-term condition accumulation and mortality in older adults: a group-based trajectory modelling approach using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

ObjectivesTo classify older adults into clusters based on accumulating long-term conditions (LTC) as trajectories, characterise clusters and quantify their associations with all-cause mortality.DesignWe conducted a longitudinal study using the English...

Ten-year trajectory of coronary artery calcification and risk of cardiovascular outcomes: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Whether and how coronary artery calcium (CAC) progress contributes to cardiovascular outcomes has not been fully elucidated. The aim of this study was to identify different patterns of CAC change and evaluate the associations with different cardiovascular outcomes. Data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis study were analyzed. Participants with at least three CT measurements were included. The main study outcome is hard cardiovascular disease (CVD). CAC scores were determined as phantom-adjusted Agatston scores. A group-based trajectory model was used to identify latent groups and estimated the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional regression models. A total of 3,616 participants were finally enrolled [mean age 60.55 (SD 9.54) years, 47.76% men and 39.30% Caucasian]. Four distinct trajectories in CAC were identified: class 1, low-stable (24.17%); class 2, low-increasing (27.60%); class 3, moderate-increasing (30.56%); and class 4, elevated-increasing (17.67%). During 13.58 (SD 2.25) years of follow-up, 291 cases of hard CVD occurred. The event rates of hard CVD per 1,000 person-years were 2.23 (95% CI 1.53-3.25), 4.60 (95% CI 3.60-5.89), 7.67 (95% CI 6.38-9.21) and 10.37 (95% CI 8.41-12.80) for classes 1-4, respectively. Compared to participants assigned to class 1, the full-adjusted HRs of hard CVD for classes 2-4 were 2.10 (95% CI 1.33-3.01), 3.17 (95% CI 2.07-4.87), and 4.30 (95% CI 2.73-6.78), respectively. The graded positive associations with hard CVD were consistently observed in subgroups of age, sex, and race, with the presence or absence of hypertension or diabetes. By analyzing potential risk factors for distinctive CAC trajectories, risk factors for the onset and progression of CAC could possibly differ: age, male sex, history of hypertension, and diabetes are consistently associated with the low-, moderate-, and elevated-increasing trajectories. However, Caucasian race, cigarette smoking, and a higher body mass index was related only to risk of progression but not to incident CAC. In this multi-ethnic population-based cohort, four unique trajectories in CAC change over a 10-year span were identified. These findings signal an underlying high-risk population and may inspire future studies on risk management.

Trajectories of craving in the course of pharmacotherapy trials for methamphetamine use disorder.

The aim of this study was to measure trajectories of craving for methamphetamine during the course of pharmacotherapy trials for methamphetamine use disorder. Craving trajectories were identified using Group-Based Trajectory Modeling. The association of craving trajectories with drug use trajectories was examined using a dual trajectory model. Association of craving trajectories with other health and social outcomes was also examined. The study used pooled data from five randomized controlled pharmacotherapy trials for methamphetamine use disorder. A total of 866 adults with methamphetamine use disorder participated in randomized controlled pharmacotherapy trials. Craving was assessed weekly using the Brief Substance Craving Scale. Drug use was assessed using urine toxicology. Alcohol- and drug-related problems, as well as psychiatric, medical, legal, employment and relationship problems, were measured using the Addiction Severity Index. A three-trajectory model with high, medium and low craving trajectories was selected as the most parsimonious model. Craving trajectories were associated with methamphetamine use trajectories in the course of trial; 88.4% of those in the high craving trajectory group had a consistently high frequency of methamphetamine use compared with 18.7% of those in the low craving group. High craving was also associated with less improvement in most other outcomes and higher rate of dropout from treatment. In turn, low craving was associated with a rapidly decreasing frequency of methamphetamine use, greater improvement in most other outcomes and a lower rate of dropout. Participants on modafinil daily and ondansetron 1 mg twice daily were less likely to be in the high craving group compared with those on placebo. Trajectories of methamphetamine craving in the course of clinical trials for methamphetamine use disorder appear to be both highly variable and strongly associated with greater frequency of drug use, other drug-related outcomes and dropout from trials. Two medications, modafinil daily and ondansetron at a dose of 1 mg two times daily, appear to be associated with greater reduction in craving in the course of treatment compared with placebo. A decrease in methamphetamine craving shows promise as an early indicator of recovery from methamphetamine use disorder.

Prevalence, pain trajectories, and presurgical predictors for chronic postsurgical pain in a pediatric sample in Spain with a 24-month follow-up.

Pediatric chronic pain, particularly chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP), poses a significant public health challenge, impacting 20% of pediatric populations. While several presurgical predictors have been identified, there is a scarcity of data on long-term outcomes, especially beyond 1 to 2 years postsurgery. Previous research primarily focuses on North American children, creating gaps in understanding CPSP outcomes in diverse health systems, such as in Spain. This study, registered as NCT04735211, investigates CPSP in 159 children and adolescents (mean age = 12.4 years, 37.1% girls, retention rate = 65%) undergoing various surgeries in Spain. The objectives include examining CPSP prevalence (Numerical Rating Scale ≥ 4) at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months, exploring postsurgical pain trajectories through group-based trajectory modeling, and identifying potential presurgical predictors for CPSP (pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, pain anxiety, fear of pain, kinesiophobia, health-related quality of life, pain interference, and physical activity), using multiple logistic regressions. Results show a CPSP prevalence of 41% at 3 months, decreasing to 14% at 24 months. Presurgical factors including pain intensity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.53), pain catastrophizing (aOR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.00-1.13), and pain anxiety (aOR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.11) were associated with CPSP at 3 months. Group-based trajectory modeling revealed 3 postsurgical pain trajectories: Low Pain with Rapid Recovery Group (30.2%), Moderate Pain with Recovery Group (53.5%), and High Pain with Slow Recovery Group (16.3%), with group differences in presurgical predictors, excluding physical activity. This study contributes valuable insights into CPSP, emphasizing the need for long-term follow-up. The findings could inform the implementation of preventive programs for CPSP into diverse health systems.

Improved Air Quality and Asthma Incidence from School Age to Young Adulthood: A Population-based Prospective Cohort Study.

Rationale: The benefits of improved air quality on asthma remain understudied. Objectives: Our aim was to investigate associations of changes in ambient air pollution with incident asthma from school age until young adulthood in an area with mostly low air pollution levels. Methods: Participants in the BAMSE (Swedish abbreviation for Children, Allergy, Environment, Stockholm, Epidemiology) birth cohort from Stockholm without asthma before the 8-year follow-up were included (N = 2,371). We estimated the association of change in individual-level air pollutant exposure (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm [PM2.5] and ≤ 10 μm [PM10], black carbon [BC], and nitrogen oxides [NOx]) from the first year of life to the 8-year follow-up with asthma incidence from the 8-year until the 24-year follow-up. Multipollutant trajectories were identified using the group-based multivariate trajectory model. We also used parametric G-computation to quantify the asthma incidence under different hypothetical interventions regarding air pollution levels. Results: Air pollution levels at residency decreased during the period, with median reductions of 5.6% for PM2.5, 3.1% for PM10, 5.9% for BC, and 26.8% for NOx. A total of 395 incident asthma cases were identified from the 8-year until the 24-year follow-up. The odds ratio for asthma was 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.99) for each interquartile range reduction in PM2.5 (equal to 8.1% reduction). Associations appeared less clear for PM10, BC, and NOx. Five multipollutant trajectories were identified; the largest reduction trajectory displayed the lowest odds of asthma (odds ratio, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.31-0.98) compared with the lowest reduction trajectory. If the PM2.5 exposure had not declined up to the 8-year follow-up, the hypothetical asthma incidence was estimated to have been 10.9% higher (95% CI, 0.8-20.8%). Conclusions: A decrease in PM2.5 levels during childhood was associated with a lower risk of incident asthma from school age to young adulthood in an area with relatively low air pollution levels, suggesting broad respiratory health benefits from improved air quality.

Cardiometabolic Profile in Young Adults With Diverse Cigarette Smoking Histories: A Longitudinal Study From Adolescence.

For the first time, the present study investigated smoking trajectory and cardiometabolic profile from adolescence to young adulthood in a middle-income developing country facing a high prevalence of smoking and cardiovascular disease-related outcomes. Data on 1082 adolescents (12-18 years of age) who participated in the TLGS (Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study) were gathered,and participants were followed for a median of 12.5 years (baseline: 1999-2002, last follow-up: 2014-2017). Participants were categorized as non/rare smokers, experimenters, and escalators using group-based trajectory models. Statistical analysis was used to compare the trajectory groups' cardiometabolic components, clinical characteristics, and cardiometabolic changes due to the individuals' placement in experimenter and escalator groups compared with non/rare smokers. The smoking trajectory groups in young adulthood differ significantly in blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, waist circumference, and body mass index, with the escalator group having the highest risk values for each component. Significant differences were observed in blood pressure (P=0.014), triglycerides (P<0.001), and waist circumference (P<0.001) status after using clinical cut points. The adjusted linear regression revealed that the escalator group had 3.16 mm Hg-lower systolic blood pressure SBP (P=0.016), 2.69 mm Hg-lower diastolic blood pressure (P=0.011), and 4.42 mg/dL-lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P=0.002), compared with the non/rare smoker group. Despite elevated risks in unadjusted analyses for all cardiometabolic components among smokers, our study identified a modest protective link between early smoking and blood pressure in addition to a remarkable harmful association with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels exclusively in the escalator group during the developmental stage to young adulthood, using adjusted analyses.

Care-Resistant Behavior Trajectories During Mouth Care Among Nursing Home Residents With Dementia.

This study examined day-to-day variation in care-resistant behaviors (CRBs) exhibited by persons living with dementia during mouth healthcare and the potential influence of time of day on CRB trajectories. A secondary analysis was conducted on a sample of 75 nursing home-dwelling persons living with dementia who exhibited CRBs during mouth care activities. Over 21 days, CRBs were measured using the revised Resistiveness to Care scale (RTC-r) during morning and afternoon mouth care sessions. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify trajectory patterns and assess differences between morning and afternoon CRB patterns. Three trajectory patterns were identified: morning CRB trajectory patterns showed 50.6% of persons living with dementia had consistently low RTC-r scores, 37.5% of persons living with dementia exhibited fluctuating, moderate RTC-r scores, and 11.9% exhibited RTC-r scores that started high and then decreased over time. Similarly, CRB trajectory patterns during afternoon mouth care showed a consistently low RTC-r score for 54.5% and a fluctuating moderate RTC-r score for 38.6% of persons living with dementia. However, the third CRB trajectory group followed a high-increasing trajectory, with RTC-r scores starting high and continuing to increase for 6.9% of persons living with dementia. CRBs are dynamic and vary within days and over time; however, the time of the day is often not considered in interventions to manage CRBs. Thus, it is important to consider the timing of providing mouth care for persons living with dementia. Based on the characteristics of the trajectories, we suggest that morning mouth activities may be more efficient.

Trajectories of Housing Insecurity From Infancy to Adolescence and Adolescent Health Outcomes.

Housing insecurity is associated with adverse effects on child growth and development cross-sectionally; less is known about its cumulative, long-term effects. This study describes longitudinal experiences of housing insecurity during childhood from infancy (age 1 year) to adolescence (age 15 years) and examines their associations with adolescent health outcomes. Using data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study, we created a composite measure of housing insecurity using 5 indicators (eg, skipping a rent or mortgage payment, eviction) for participants at ages 1, 3, 5, 9, and 15 years. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct patterns of housing insecurity, sociodemographic predictors of these patterns, and how these patterns relate to adolescent health outcomes. We identified 3 trajectories of housing insecurity from infancy to adolescence: secure, moderately insecure, and highly insecure. Adolescents who experienced moderately and highly insecure housing had decreased odds of excellent health (adjusted odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.95; adjusted odds ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.50-0.92, respectively) and more depressive symptoms (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08; 1.13; 95% CI, 1.08-1.19, respectively) than adolescents with secure housing. Adolescents who experienced highly insecure housing reported significantly higher anxiety symptoms (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.003-1.113). Housing insecurity starting in infancy was associated with poorer adolescent health outcomes. These longitudinal patterns emphasize the need for novel screening mechanisms to identify housing insecurity when it emerges, as well as policies to prevent housing insecurity and its associated health outcomes.

The importance of mother-child interaction on smart device usage and behavior outcomes among toddlers: a longitudinal study

BackgroundIn recent years, smart devices have become an integral part of daily life. However, longitudinal studies, particularly those regarding the relationship between toddlers’ smart device usage and behavioral outcomes, are limited. Understanding the impact of parent–child interactions on this relationship is crucial for enhancing toddlers’ developmental outcomes. Accordingly, this study examined the influence of early screen time and media content exposure on toddlers’ behaviors, as well as the positive effects of mother–child interactions on this influence.MethodsWe used relevant data related to 277 children born between November 2016 and July 2020 and who were part of an ongoing prospective follow-up study conducted across five hospitals in Taipei City, Taiwan. We analyzed (1) data from maternal reports regarding children’s behavior by using the Child Behavior Checklist (for ages 11/2–5 years), (2) assessments of mother–child interactions by using the Brigance Parent–Child Interactions Scale, and (3) self-reported parental data covering the first 3 postpartum years. Statistical analyses involved group-based trajectory modeling and multiple linear regression.ResultsA considerable increase in screen time between the ages of 1 and 3 years was associated with less favorable behavioral outcomes at age 3. These outcomes included somatic complaints [adjusted beta coefficient (aβ) = 2.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.39–3.95, p-value = 0.01], withdrawal (aβ = 2.42, 95% CI = 0.15–4.69, p-value = 0.04), and aggressive behavior (aβ = 6.53, 95% CI = 0.25–12.81, p-value = 0.04). This association was particularly evident among children with lower levels of mother–child interaction. Nevertheless, positive mother–child interactions mitigated most of the adverse effects. Additionally, increased exposure to games and cartoons was associated with poorer behavioral outcomes in all children except for those experiencing positive mother–child interactions.ConclusionEarly mother–child interactions play a crucial role in mitigating the risk of behavioral problems in toddlers who spend prolonged periods looking at screens and who are frequently exposed to game and cartoon content.

Risk and protective factors for cognitive decline in Brazilian lower educated older adults: A 15-year follow-up study using group-based trajectory modelling

BackgroundPatterns of cognitive change and modifiable factors for cognitive decline versus stable cognitive trajectories have rarely been described in lower-educated older adults. ObjectivesWe aimed to identify long-term trajectories of cognitive functioning and possible factors associated with cognitive decline. Design and participantsWe used data from 1,042 adults aged ≥ 60 participating in the Health, Welfare and Aging Study (SABE), São Paulo, Brazil, without cognitive impairment at baseline. Data were collected across four waves (2000–2015). Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify cognitive trajectories. Associations with socioeconomic variables, childhood background, lifestyle, and cardiovascular risk factors were explored using weighted multinomial logistic regressions. MeasurementsThe abbreviated Mini-Mental State Examination was used to measure cognition. ResultsThree cognitive trajectories were identified: stable (n= 754, 68.6%), mild-decline (n= 183, 20.8%), and strong-decline (n= 105, 10.7%). At baseline, respondents in the strong-decline group were more likely to be older than those with stable and mild-decline trajectories. Furthermore, participants in both the mild and strong-decline groups were more likely to have no schooling, be divorced/separated, receive less than 4 monthly wages, and be underweight (BMI < 18.5) compared to the stable group. Finally, the mild-decline group was more likely to have lived in rural areas during childhood than participants located in a stable trajectory. ConclusionsOur findings suggest that interventions to reduce cognitive decline for low-educated older adults might include strategies addressing inequalities and improving modifiable risk factor burden.

Engagement With a Mobile Chat-Based Intervention for Smoking Cessation

Determining how individuals engage with digital health interventions over time is crucial to understand and optimize intervention outcomes. To identify the engagement trajectories with a mobile chat-based smoking cessation intervention and examine its association with biochemically validated abstinence. A secondary analysis of a pragmatic, cluster randomized clinical trial conducted in Hong Kong with 6-month follow-up. From June 18 to September 30, 2017, 624 adult daily smokers were recruited from 34 community sites randomized to the intervention group. Data were analyzed from March 6 to October 30, 2023. Chat-based cessation support delivered by a live counselor via a mobile instant messaging app for 3 months from baseline. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify engagement trajectories using the participants' weekly responses to the messages from the counselor over the 3-month intervention period. The outcome measures were biochemically validated tobacco abstinence at 3-month (end of treatment) and 6-month follow-ups. Covariates included sex, age, educational level, nicotine dependence, past quit attempt, and intention to quit at baseline. Of 624 participants included in the analysis, 479 were male (76.8%), and the mean (SD) age was 42.1 (16.2) years. Four distinct engagement trajectories were identified: low engagement group (447 [71.6%]), where participants maintained very low engagement throughout; rapid-declining group (86 [13.8%]), where participants began with moderate engagement and rapidly decreased to a low level; gradual-declining group (58 [9.3%]), where participants had high initial engagement and gradually decreased to a moderate level; and high engagement group (58 [5.3%]), where participants maintained high engagement throughout. Compared with the low engagement group, the 6-month validated abstinence rates were significantly higher in the rapid-declining group (adjusted relative risk [ARR], 3.30; 95% CI, 1.39-7.81), gradual-declining group (ARR, 5.17; 95% CI, 2.21-12.11), and high engagement group (ARR, 4.98; 95% CI, 1.82-13.60). The corresponding ARRs (95% CI) of 3-month validated abstinence were 4.03 (95% CI, 1.53-10.59), 5.25 (95% CI, 1.98-13.88), and 9.23 (95% CI, 3.29-25.86). The findings of this study suggest that higher levels of engagement with the chat-based smoking cessation intervention were associated with greater biochemically validated tobacco abstinence. Improving engagement with digital interventions may increase intervention benefits. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03182790.

Social Characteristics and Adherence to Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Premenopausal Women With Breast Cancer.

PURPOSESocial characteristics, including cohabitation/marital status and socioeconomic position (SEP)-education level, employment status, and income-influence breast cancer prognosis. We investigated the impact of these social characteristics on adherence to adjuvant endocrine therapy (AET) from treatment initiation to 5 years after diagnosis.METHODSWe assembled a nationwide, population-based cohort of premenopausal women diagnosed in Denmark with stage I-III, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer during 2002-2011. We ascertained prediagnostic social characteristics from national registries. AET adherence was based on information from the Danish Breast Cancer Group and operationalized as (1) adherence trajectories (from group-based trajectory modeling) and (2) early discontinuation. We computed odds ratios (ORs) and associated 95% CI to estimate the association of cohabitation and SEP with AET adherence using multinomial and logistic regression models adjusted according to directed acyclic graphs.RESULTSAmong 4,353 patients, we identified three adherence trajectories-high adherence (57%), slow decline (36%), and rapid decline (6.9%). Compared with cohabiting women, those living alone had higher ORs of slow (1.26 [95% CI, 1.08 to 1.46]) or rapid decline (1.66 [95% CI, 1.27 to 2.18]) versus high adherence. The corresponding ORs for women not working versus employed women were 1.22 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.45) and 1.76 (95% CI, 1.30 to 2.38). For early discontinuation (17%), the ORs were 1.48 (95% CI, 1.23 to 1.78) for living alone and 1.44 (95% CI, 1.17 to 1.78) for women not working.CONCLUSIONAdherence to AET was lower among women living alone or unemployed than cohabiting or employed women, respectively. These women may benefit from support programs to enhance AET adherence.

Heparin Therapy and Mortality in Patients with Sepsis: An Observational Study Using a Marginal Structural Cox Model Based on MIMIC-IV Database

Abstract Introduction Although heparin has been widely used in clinical practice, its effect on mortality in sepsis is still controversial. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of heparin in septic patients. Methods Adult septic patients were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV 2.0 database, which contains patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Centre from 2008 to 2019. Propensity score matching (PSM) was employed to adjust for the baseline differences in the probability to receive heparin or not. The marginal structural cox model (MSCM) was used to account for both baseline and time-dependent covariates. Group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was performed to identify activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) trajectory groups, and patient outcomes were compared between the heparin- and non-heparin groups in each phenotype. Results A total of 9940 septic patients were enrolled in the study, including 1690 (17%) in the heparin group. By PSM, significant benefit in terms of mortality was observed among the heparin group (HR = 0.82; 95% CI 0.71–0.94; p = 0.004). Similar findings were replicated with the MSCM analysis (HR = 0.66; 95% CI 0.44–0.98; p = 0.038). In the GBTM analysis, three APTT trajectory groups were identified: “normal” (n = 8236; 82.8%); “medium high” (n = 1358; 13.7%); and “high” (n = 346; 13.5%). Heparin therapy was associated with a reduced mortality (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.41–0.84; p = 0.003) in patients with the medium high APTT level [51.7 s (interquartile range, 40.1–64.3)]. Conclusions Heparin therapy was associated with improved outcome in septic patients, and it showed significant survival benefit in patients achieved the medium high APTT phenotype.

Pain trajectories over 12 months following conservative care consultation in patients with lumbar spinal stenosis

ObjectiveTo investigate symptom trajectories in chiropractic patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS).MethodsPatients diagnosed with LSS were recruited from chiropractic clinics and self-reported questionnaires were collected at baseline and 1-year follow-up. Patients received weekly text messages about low back pain (LBP) and leg symptoms for 1 year. Group-based trajectory modelling was performed to identify symptom trajectory groups. The groups were compared based on patient characteristics, LBP and leg pain intensity, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and Zurich Claudication Questionnaire (ZCQ).ResultsA total of 90 patients were included in the analysis. A three-group trajectory model was chosen: ‘improving’ (16%), ‘fluctuating/improving’ (30%), and ‘persistent’ (54%). The ‘persistent’ group had a higher proportion of women [71% (95% CI 57–82%)] than the ‘improving’ group 29% (95% CI 11–56%), and a higher ODI score at both baseline [34.2 (95% CI 29.7–38.8) vs. 22.8 (16.4–29.1)] and 1-year follow-up [28.1 (95% CI 23.2–33.0) vs. 4.8 (0.1–9.4)]. Similar differences were observed for ZCQ symptom and function scores.ConclusionsPain symptoms in people with LSS followed distinctly different trajectories. Half of the sample had a pattern of consistently severe symptoms over a year, while the other half either improved rapidly or experienced fluctuating symptoms with some improvement.

Aging trajectories of subscales in higher-level functional capacity among community-dwelling older Japanese adults: the Otassha study

BackgroundMaintaining higher-level functional capacity is important for independent living in older age. The aging trajectory of the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence (TMIG-IC) has three patterns; however, the subscale patterns are unclear.AimsThis study aimed to clarify the aging trajectory patterns of the TMIG-IC subscales among community-dwelling older Japanese.MethodsParticipants were 3,169 community-dwelling older Japanese who participated in the 2012–2022 mail survey of the Otassha study. The aging trajectory patterns of the TMIG-IC total and subscale scores for those aged 65–90 years were identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Further, the combination frequency of the subscale trajectory patterns was determined.ResultsThree patterns were identified: early-onset decreasing, late-onset decreasing, and high-stable.DiscussionThe instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) trajectory was maintained until approximately 80 years of age; however, chronic disease prevailed the most in the early-onset decreasing pattern. The early-onset decreasing pattern of intellectual activity (IA) was present in 25% of participants, showing impaired IA from 65 years of age. The late-onset decreasing pattern of social roles (SR) was present in 30% of participants, showing a sharp decline compared to other subscales. For many people, the patterns of decrease in SR and IA overlapped.ConclusionsTo maintain higher-level functional capacity, interventions that include disease management and prevention of decline in IADL and increase the awareness of the social support provided throughout old age and interventions for people with an early decline in IA should be implemented.