Group-based Modeling Research Articles

Differential Unmet Needs and Experience of Restorative Dental Care in Trajectories of Dental Caries Experience: A Birth Cohort Study

Dental caries is a chronic and cumulative disease but little has been reported on the continuity of the disease and its treatment through life. Group-based multi-trajectory modeling was used to identify developmental trajectories of untreated carious tooth surfaces (DS), restored tooth surfaces (FS), and teeth extracted due to caries (MT) from ages 9 to 45 years in a New Zealand longitudinal birth cohort, the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (n = 975). Associations between early-life risk factors and trajectory group membership were examined by specifying the probability of group membership according to a multinomial logit model. Six trajectory groups were identified and labeled: “low caries rate”; “moderate caries rate, maintained”; “moderate caries rate, unmaintained”; “high caries rate, restored”; “high caries rate, tooth loss”; and “high caries rate, untreated caries”. The two moderate-caries-rate groups differed in count of FS. The three high-caries-rate groups differed in the relative proportion of accumulated DS, FS, and MT. Early childhood risk factors associated with less favorable trajectories included higher dmfs scores at age 5, lack of exposure to community water fluoridation during the first 5 years of life, lower childhood IQ, and low childhood socioeconomic status. Parent self-ratings of their own or their child’s oral health as “poor” were associated with less favorable caries experience trajectories. Children who had clinical signs of dental caries together with a parent rating of child’s oral health as poor were more likely to follow a less favorable caries trajectory. Higher deciduous dentition caries experience at age 5 years was associated with less favorable caries trajectories, as were children whose parents gave “poor” ratings of their own or their child’s oral health. These findings highlight the considerable intergenerational continuity in dental caries experience from early childhood to midlife. Subjective measures of child oral health are informative and might aid as predictors of adult caries experience in cases where childhood dental clinical data were not available.

Association of Multitrajectories of Lipid Indices With Premature Cardiovascular Disease: A Cohort Study.

Background The multitrajectory model can identify joint longitudinal patterns of different lipids simultaneously, which might help better understand the heterogeneous risk of premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) and facilitate targeted prevention programs. This study aimed to investigate the associations between multitrajectories of lipids with premature CVD. Methods and Results The study enrolled 78 526 participants from the Kailuan study, a prospective cohort study in Tangshan, China. Five distinct multitrajectories of triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol over 6-year exposure were identified on the basis of Nagin's criteria, using group-based multitrajectory modeling. During a median follow-up of 6.75 years (507 645.94 person-years), 665 (0.85%) premature CVDs occurred. After adjustment for confounders, the highest risk of premature CVD was observed in group 4 (the highest and increasing triglyceride, optimal and decreasing LDL-C, low and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.13 [95% CI, 1.36-3.32]), followed by group 5 (high and decreasing triglyceride, optimal and increasing LDL-C, low and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (HR, 2.07 [95% CI, 1.45-2.98]), and group 3 (optimal and increasing triglyceride, borderline high and increasing LDL-C, optimal and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (HR, 1.90 [95% CI, 1.32-2.73]). Conclusions Our results showed that the residual risk of premature CVD caused by increasing triglyceride levels remained high despite the fact that LDL-C levels were optimal or declining over time. These findings emphasized the importance of assessing the joint longitudinal patterns of lipids and undertaking potential interventions on triglyceride lowering to reduce the residual risk of premature CVD, even among individuals with optimal LDL-C levels.

Early risk factors for conduct problem trajectories from childhood to adolescence: the 2004 Pelotas (BRAZIL) Birth Cohort

Conduct problems are associated with an increased risk of a wide range of physical, mental, and social problems. However, there is still uncertainty about how early risk factors differentiate different developmental patterns of conduct problems and whether findings replicate across diverse social contexts. We aimed to identify developmental trajectories of conduct problems, and test early risk factors, in the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort in Brazil. Conduct problems were measured at ages 4, 6, 11, and 15 years from caregiver reports on the Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) and Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Conduct problem trajectories were estimated using group-based semi-parametric modeling (n = 3938). Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine associations between early risk factors and conduct problem trajectories. We identified four trajectories: three with elevated conduct problems, including early-onset persistent (n = 150; 3.8%), adolescence-onset (n = 286; 17.3%), and childhood-limited (n = 697; 17.7%), and one with low conduct problems (n = 2805; 71.2%). The three elevated conduct problem trajectories were associated with a wide range of sociodemographic risk factors, prenatal smoking, maternal mental health, harsh parenting, childhood trauma, and child neurodevelopmental risk factors. Early-onset persistent conduct problems were particularly associated with trauma, living without a father figure, and attention difficulties. The four trajectories of conduct problems from ages 4 to 15 years in this Brazilian cohort have similar longitudinal patterns to those identified in high-income countries. The results confirm previous longitudinal research and developmental taxonomic theories on the etiology of conduct problems in a Brazilian sample.

Concurrent trajectories of residential region in relation to a sustainable working life among Swedish twins.

Residential regions may impact the possibilities to achieve a sustainable working life (SWL, i.e. not having interruptions due to sickness absence, disability pension or unemployment) due to disparities in social security and labour market. We aimed to investigate concurrent trajectories of regions and SWL among Swedish twins. National register data were used for the degree of SWL in each year, old-age pension, emigration, death and residential regions classified in three categories (cities; towns and suburbs; or rural areas) of Swedish twins in 1998-2016 (n = 80 398). Group-based multi-trajectory modelling and multinomial regression for relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. The six-group solution had the best fit to data with trajectories: stable living in towns and suburbs with SWL (33.8%); stable living in cities with SWL (22.1%); stable living in towns and suburbs with increasing SWL (13.9%); stable living in towns and suburbs with lack of SWL (13.2%); stable living towns and suburbs with decreasing SWL (8.8%); and stable living towns and suburbs with decreasing and ultimately lack of SWL (8.3%). Age and being woman increased and being married and higher education decreased the likelihood of belonging to groups 2-6 (vs. 1). The simultaneous assessment of trajectories of three residential regions and SWL indicated that most people in Sweden seem to live continuously over time in towns and suburbs, but the degree of SWL may vary. More fine-grained assessment of residential regions would be needed to clarify the associations with SWL.

Testing stability of self-control over time among South Korean Youth using semi-parametric group-based modeling

Gottfredson and Hirschi argued the self-control theory in A General Theory of Crime (1990). Since then, many studies have examined the central proposition of low self-control as the cause of criminal behavior with cross-sectional data. However, few research studies have tested other stability propositions that low self-control is stable across the life-course and that once it is established at age 8 to 10, it remains relatively stable regardless of life changes. The purpose of this study was to examine stability postulate of the self-control theory. The current study used six-wave panel data of the Korean Children & Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS), which measured self-control of elementary school students at one year each of time points. The test of relative stability hypothesis comprises four analyses of data: correlations, individual change scores, SGM (Semi-parametric Group-based Modeling), and Multinomial Logistic Regression. Results revealed that the hypothesis of self-control stability was not strongly supported by the longitudinal data. Based on prior empirical research and this study’s finding, more research is needed to determine the stability of self-control.

Cancer burden among adolescents and young adults in relation to childhood adversity: a nationwide life-course cohort study of 1.2 million individuals.

Childhood adversity such as poverty, loss of a parent, and dysfunctional family dynamics may be associated with exposure to environmental and behavioral hazards, interfere with normal biological functions, and affect cancer care and outcomes. To explore this hypothesis, we assessed the cancer burden among young men and women exposed to adversity during childhood. We undertook a population-based study using Danish nationwide register data on childhood adversity and cancer outcomes. Children who were alive and resident in Denmark until their 16th birthday were followed into young adulthood (16-38 years). Group-based multi-trajectory modelling was used to categorize individuals into five distinct groups: low adversity, early material deprivation, persistent material deprivation, loss/threat of loss, and high adversity. We assessed the association with overall cancer incidence, mortality, and five-year case fatality; and cancer specific outcomes for the four most common cancers in this age group in sex-stratified survival analyses. 1,281,334 individuals born between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2001, were followed up until Dec 31, 2018, capturing 8229 incident cancer cases and 662 cancer deaths. Compared to low adversity, women who experienced persistent material deprivation carried a slightly lower risk of overall cancer (hazard ratio (HR) 0.90; 95% CI 0.82; 0.99), particularly due to malignant melanoma and brain and central nervous system cancers, while women who experienced high adversity carried a higher risk of breast cancer (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.09; 2.70) and cervical cancer incidence (HR 1.82; 95% CI 1.18; 2.83). While there was no clear association between childhood adversity and cancer incidence in men, those men who had experienced persistent material deprivation (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.29; 2.31) or high adversity (HR 2.27; 95% CI 1.38; 3.72) carried a disproportionate burden of cancer mortality during adolescence or young adulthood compared to men in the low adversity group. Childhood adversity is associated with a lower risk of some subtypes of cancer and a higher risk of others, particular in women. Persistent deprivation and adversity are also associated with a higher risk of adverse cancer outcomes for men. These findings may relate to a combination of biological susceptibility, health behaviors and treatment-related factors. None.

Trajectory of maternal depression and parasomnias.

Maternal depressive symptoms are associated with poorer sleep quality in their children. Although parasomnias can occur at any age, this group of sleep disorders is more common in children. The aim of this study was to assess whether maternal depression trajectories predict parasomnias at the age of 11 years. Data were from a Birth Cohort of 4231 individuals followed in the city of Pelotas, Brazil. Maternal depressive symptoms were assessed with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) at 12, 24, and 48 months, and 6 and 11 years postpartum. Maternal depression trajectories were calculated using a group-based modelling approach. Information on any parasomnias (confused arousals, sleepwalking, night terrors, and nightmares) was provided by the mother. Five trajectories of maternal depressive symptoms were identified: chronic-low (34.9%), chronic-moderate (41.4%), increasing (10.3%), decreasing (8.9%), and chronic-high (4.4%). The prevalence of any parasomnia at the age of 11 years was 16.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.6%-18.1%). Confusional arousal was the most prevalent type of parasomnia (14.5%) and varied from 8.7% to 14.7%, 22.9%, 20.3%, and 27.5% among children of mothers at chronic-low, moderate-low, increasing, decreasing, and chronic-high trajectories, respectively (p< 0.001). Compared to children from mothers in the chronic-low trajectory, the adjusted prevalence ratio for any parasomnia was 1.58(95% CI 1.29-1.94), 2.34(95% CI 1.83-2.98), 2.15(95% CI 1.65-2.81), and 3.07(95% CI 2.31-4.07) among those from mothers in the moderate-low, increasing, decreasing, and chronic-high trajectory groups, respectively (p < 0.001). In conclusion, parasomnias were more prevalent among children of mothers with chronic symptoms of depression.

Association between multimorbidity trajectories, healthcare utilization, and health expenditures among middle-aged and older adults: China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

BackgroundTo identify the latent groups of multimorbidity trajectories among middle-aged and older adults and examine their associations with healthcare utilization and health expenditures. MethodsWe included adults aged ≥45 years who participated in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2015 and were without multimorbidities (<2 chronic conditions) at baseline. Multimorbidity trajectories underlying 13 chronic conditions were identified using group-based multi-trajectory modeling based on the latent dimensions. Healthcare utilization included outpatient care, inpatient care, and unmet healthcare needs. Health expenditures included healthcare costs and catastrophic health expenditures (CHE). Random-effects logistic regression, random-effects negative binomial regression, and generalized linear regression models were used to examine the association between multimorbidity trajectories, healthcare utilization, and health expenditures. ResultsOf the 5548 participants, 2407 developed multimorbidities during follow-up. Three trajectory groups were identified among those with new-onset multimorbidity according to the increasing dimensions of chronic diseases: “digestive-arthritic” (N = 1377, 57.21 %), “cardiometabolic/brain” (N = 834, 34.65 %), and “respiratory/digestive-arthritic” (N = 196, 8.14 %). All trajectory groups had a significantly increased risk of outpatient care, inpatient care, unmet healthcare needs, and higher healthcare costs than those without multimorbidities. Notably, participants in the “digestive-arthritic” trajectory group had a significantly increased risk of incurring CHE (OR = 1.70, 95%CI: 1.03–2.81). LimitationsChronic conditions were assessed using self-reported measures. ConclusionsThe growing burden of multimorbidity, especially multimorbidities of digestive and arthritic diseases, was associated with a significantly increased risk of healthcare utilization and health expenditures. The findings may help in planning future healthcare and managing multimorbidity more effectively.

Smoking status trajectories, intergenerational socioeconomic mobility and depression: Preliminary results from 107,734 French adults (18 to 75 years) of the CONSTANCES cohort

IntroductionCigarette smoking prevalence is significantly higher among people with mental health problems than among the general population. Smoking accounts for much of the reduction in life expectancy associated with mental illness, why the high co-occurrence of smoking and mental health illness is a major public health concern. Persons belonging to socioeconomical disadvantaged groups have higher risk of mental health conditions and also higher smoking rates.ObjectivesIn this study we aim to examine smoking trajectories among adult smokers between 2012 and 2020. Furthermore, we aim to investigate differences in smoking trajectories by adult depression by taking into consideration participants intergenerational socioeconomic mobility (ISEM).MethodsAnalyses were based on data from CONSTANCES, a French general population cohort conducted from 2012 to 2020. In total were 107,734 participants included after exclusion of never smokers. Depression was measured by the CES-D scale, and depression was classified with a score ≥16. ISEM is based on childhood (maternal and parental occupational grade) and adult socioeconomic position (SEP), and low ISEM includes those with low SEP as child and adult and high ISEM those with consistent high SEP. Group-based trajectories modelling (GBTM) was used to determine smoking status trajectories. To address the association between ISEM and smoking trajectory class we used multinomial logistic regression with former smokers as reference class adjusted for depression, household income, sex and age.ResultsWe identified five smoking trajectories 1) Former smokers (56.6%), 2) Long-term smokers (26.4%), 3) Intermediate smokers (3.3%), 4) Early quitters (5.0%) and 5) Late quitters (8.7%). Preliminary results from multinomial logistic regression showed that persons with low ISEM had higher odds of depression (OR [95%CI]=1.91 [1.77;2.06]) than those with high ISEM. Participants with low ISEM had higher odds of being long-term smoking than former smokers compared to those with high ISEM (ORa [95%CI]=1.55 [1.43;1.67]). Furthermore, those with low ISEM had lower odds of being in any of the other smoking trajectory groups vs. former smokers compared to those with high ISEM (ORa [95%CI]=0.82 [0.69;0.97]) for intermediate smokers, ORa [95%CI]=0.75 [0.66;0.85]) for early quitters, and ORa [95%CI]=0.78 [0.70;0.87]) for late quitters).ConclusionsPreliminary results showed an association between ISEM and smoking trajectories in our study. Persons with low ISEM are more likely to be long-term smokers. Future analysis should consider the effect of depression as a mediating factor on the association between ISEM and smoking trajectories.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

Trajectories of parental harshness and exposure to community violence differentially predict externalizing and internalizing mental health problems in legal system-involved youth.

Youth with legal system involvement are especially likely to experience parental harshness (PH) and exposure to community violence (ETV), two common forms of life stress. However, most studies examine these stressors separately or collapse across them in ways that preclude examination of their co-occurrence. Consequently, it is unclear 1) how PH and ETV simultaneously fluctuate across development and 2) how these fluctuations predict future mental health problems in legal system-involved youth. We used group-based multi-trajectory modeling to estimate simultaneous trajectories of PH and ETV in 1027 legal system-involved youth and regression analyses to understand how trajectory membership predicted mental health problems three years later. Four trajectories of co-occurrence were identified (1: Low; 2: Moderate and Decreasing; 3: Moderate PH/High ETV; 4: High PH/Moderate ETV). Compared to the Low trajectory, all trajectories with PH/ETV elevations predicted violent crime and substance problems; trajectory 3 (Moderate PH/High ETV) predicted nonviolent crime and depression/anxiety symptoms; trajectory 4 (High PH/Moderate ETV) predicted depression diagnosis. These results elucidate how PH and ETV typically co-occur across adolescence for legal system-involved youth. They also reveal important commonalities and dissociations among types of mental health problems.

Trajectories of Psychopathic Traits, Anxiety, and Violence Exposure Differentially Predict Antisociality in Legal System-Involved Youth.

Psychopathic traits are associated with several forms of antisociality, including criminal offending, legal system involvement, and substance use. Some research suggests that primary (high psychopathic traits, low negative emotions) versus secondary (high psychopathic traits, high negative emotions and/or negative experiences and environments) variants confer different levels of risk for antisociality. However, research has not examined trajectories of co-occurring fluctuations in psychopathic traits, negative emotions, and negative experiences and environments or how trajectory membership relates to antisociality. We implemented group-based multi-trajectory modeling in a sample of 809 justice-involved male (n = 681) and female (n = 128) youth from the Pathways to Desistance Study to address these gaps. We identified four trajectories of co-occurring change in psychopathic traits, anxiety, and violence exposure spanning three years: Low (low levels of each factor); Moderate Psychopathic Traits, High Negative Emotions and Experiences (moderate-decreasing psychopathic traits and high-decreasing anxiety/violence exposure); Potential Primary Psychopathic Traits (elevated-decreasing psychopathic traits, moderate-decreasing anxiety, moderate-stable violence exposure); and High/Secondary Psychopathic Traits (high-stable psychopathic traits, elevated-stable anxiety, high-decreasing violence exposure). Compared to the Low trajectory, all trajectories predicted greater violent crime and substance use three and four years later. Additionally, compared to the Low trajectory, the Potential Primary Psychopathic Traits trajectory predicted more nonviolent offending three years later. Finally, the High/Secondary Psychopathic Traits trajectory showed the most persistent antisociality, predicting more nonviolent crime, higher substance dependence symptoms, and higher likelihood of arrest three and four years later. Youth with co-occurring high psychopathic traits, anxiety, and violence exposure appear most at risk for severe antisociality.

Multiple Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference and Their Associations with Hypertension and Blood Pressure in Chinese Adults from 1991 to 2018: A Prospective Study.

Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) have been suggested to be involved in the etiology of hypertension. The present study aimed to determine multiple trajectories of BMI and WC, then examined their associations with the risks of hypertension and high blood pressure in Chinese adults. The study used China Health and Nutrition Survey data from 1991 to 2018. The sample included 9651 adults aged 18 years or older. We used group-based multi-trajectory modeling to identify trajectories. We estimated the relationships between the trajectories and the risks of hypertension with a Cox proportional hazards regression model and the trajectories' relationships with blood pressure levels with a generalized linear model. We identified four trajectories for each gender: low stable BMI, low increasing WC (group 1); medium increasing BMI, medium increasing WC (group 2); increasing BMI to overweight, increasing WC to central obesity (group 3), increasing BMI to obesity, increasing central obesity WC (group 4). Group 1 was the reference group. Among males in groups 2, 3, and 4, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of hypertension were 1.30 (1.15-1.48), 1.86 (1.58-2.18), and 2.60 (2.02-3.34), respectively. The systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of males in group 4 increased by 11.90 mm of mercury (mmHg) and 7.75 mmHg, respectively. Among females in groups 2, 3, and 4, the HR and 95% CI of hypertension were 1.35 (1.18-1.54), 1.92 (1.62-2.26), and 2.37 (1.85-3.03), respectively. The SBP and DBP of females in group 4 increased by 8.84 mmHg and 5.79 mmHg, respectively. These data indicated that increases in BMI and WC were associated with unfavorable hypertension risks. Attention to both BMI and WC trajectories has the potential to prevent hypertension.

Vulnerability and recovery: Long-term mental and physical health trajectories following climate-related disasters

Extreme weather and climate-related disaster events are associated with a range of adverse health outcomes. People are not equally vulnerable to the adversity, experiencing varied patterns of long-term health trajectories in recovery depending on their vulnerabilities, capacities, and resiliencies. This study aims to identify latent mental and physical health trajectories and their associations with person- and place-based pre-disaster predictors. Using an Australian, population-based, longitudinal dataset spanning 2009–19, group-based multi-trajectory modelling was applied to identify the distinct mental, social, emotional, and physical health trajectories of people who had experienced damage to their home following a climate-related disaster event. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess a series of social vulnerability predictors (demographic, socioeconomic, housing, health, neighbourhood, and geographical) of health patterns. We identified three distinct health trajectories. Most individuals experienced small or minimal health impacts at the time of the disaster year followed by a fast recovery. However, one-fifth of the exposed population were severely affected during and post disaster. This cohort had the worst mental and physical health prior to the disaster and experienced the largest decreases in mental and physical health and the lowest recoveries. Pre-existing mental and physical conditions were the most substantial risk factors, increasing the probability of experiencing high impact and slow recovery by 61% for mental health and 51% for physical health. In addition, vulnerability in the form of housing affordability stress, lower household income, and lack of community attachment, participation and safety were also significant independent risk factors for ongoing post-disaster health problems. Critically, people's mental and physical health recovery is dependent on pre-disaster vulnerabilities in health, resource access, and capacities. These findings could assist policymakers and health practitioners to more effectively target people most at risk and design prevention and response strategies to prevent the exacerbation of poor health and wellbeing.

Multi-Trajectories of Intrinsic Capacity Decline and Their Impact on Age-Related Outcomes: A 20-Year National Longitudinal Cohort Study.

The existence of intrinsic capacity (IC) subtypes and their distinct impacts on age-related outcomes remain unexplored. This study sought to investigate IC impairment trajectories across domains and their associations with the risk of age-related outcomes, including falls, functional limitations, reduced quality of life (QoL) and mortality at 4- and 8-year follow-ups. The study sample comprised 1,782 older adults residing in the community from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TLSA). Utilizing group-based multitrajectory modeling, distinct subtypes of IC decline trajectories across various domains were identified. Cox proportional hazard models and multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed to assess the associations between the identified subtypes and age-related outcomes. We identified four subtypes of IC decline: robust with mild decline (n=902), hearing loss with cognitive decline (n=197), physio-cognitive decline (PCD) with depression (n=373), and severe IC decline (n=310). Over the 4-year study period, compared to the robust with mild decline group, hearing loss with cognitive decline group exhibited a significantly higher risk of diminished QoL (OR=2.53 [1.66-3.86], p>0.01), whereas those in the PCD with depression group experienced an elevated risk of falls (OR=1.62 [1.18-2.23], p>0.01), as well as functional limitation (OR=2.61 [1.81-3.75], p>.01). Individuals in the severe IC decline group faced a substantially increased risk of all outcomes of interest. Distinct subtypes of IC decline across different domains have varying impacts on age-related outcomes, highlighting the need for a personalized approach to promote healthy ageing at the population level, while further investigation into specific pathophysiological mechanisms is warranted as well.

Grip strength, gait speed, and trajectories of cognitive function in community-dwelling older adults: A prospective study.

This study investigated whether grip strength and gait speed predict cognitive aging trajectories and examined potential sex-specific associations. Community-dwelling older adults (n=19,114) were followed for up to 7 years, with regular assessment of global function, episodic memory, psychomotor speed, and executive function. Group-based multi-trajectory modeling identified joint cognitive trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression examined the association of grip strength and gait speed at baseline with cognitive trajectories. High performers (14.3%, n=2298) and low performers (4.0%, n=642) were compared to the average performers (21.8%, n=3492). Grip strength and gait speed were positively associated with high performance and negatively with low performance (P-values<0.01). The association between grip strength and high performance was stronger in women (interaction P<0.001), while gait speed was a stronger predictor of low performance in men (interaction P<0.05). Grip strength and gait speed are associated with cognitive trajectories in older age, but with sex differences. There is inter-individual variability in late-life cognitive trajectories.Grip strength and gait speed predicted cognitive trajectories in older age.However, sex-specific associations were identified.In women, grip strength strongly predicted high, compared to average, trajectory.In men, gait speed was a stronger predictor of low cognitive performance trajectory.

Divergent trajectories: three dimensions of child poverty during the Great Recession in Ireland.

While research has investigated the effects of the Great Recession on the Irish economy using economic indicators or cross-sectional household-level data, this research note applies group-based multitrajectory modelling to provide a more nuanced approach. Using nationally representative, longitudinal data from the Growing Up in Ireland study, we analyse patterns in three common measures of economic well-being (financial strain; disposable income; material deprivation) across Irish households in the period leading up to, during and after the Great Recession, and subsequently, break down the characteristics for each group of trajectories. We identify six distinct trajectory clusters, which all indicate declining income and increasing financial strain from the start to the height of the economic depression. However, trajectory groupings show that experiences were far from uniform, with previous economic well-being and demographic characteristics shaping the household experience. Implications for future research are discussed.

Outdoor time, screen time and sleep reported across early childhood: concurrent trajectories and maternal predictors

BackgroundUnderstanding the developmental trajectories of outdoor time, screen time and sleep is necessary to inform early interventions that promote healthy behaviours. This study aimed to describe concurrent trajectories of outdoor time, screen time and sleep across the early childhood period and their maternal predictors.MethodsData across five time points at child age 4, 9, 19, 42 and 60 months from the INFANT intervention were analysed. Mothers reported their child’s usual outdoor time, screen time and sleep duration, in addition to a range of maternal beliefs, attitudes, expectations and behaviours. Group-based multi-trajectory modelling was used to model concurrent trajectories of children’s behaviours. Multinomial logistic regression models determined the associations of maternal predictors with trajectory groups, adjusting for child sex and baseline age, intervention allocation, and clustering by recruitment.ResultsOf the 542 children recruited, 528 had data for outdoor time, screen time and sleep at one or more time points and were included in trajectory analyses Four trajectories were identified: ‘unstable sleep, increasing outdoor time, low screen’ (~ 22% of sample), ‘high outdoor time, low screen, high sleep’ (~ 24%), ‘high sleep, increasing outdoor time, low screen’ (~ 45%), ‘high screen, increasing outdoor time, high sleep’ (~ 10%). The ‘high sleep, increasing outdoor time, low screen’ group, comprising the largest percentage of the sample, demonstrated the healthiest behaviours. Predictors of group membership included: views of physically active children, screen time knowledge, screen time use, self-efficacy, physical activity optimism, future expectations for children’s physical activity and screen time, perceptions of floor play safety, and maternal physical activity, screen time, and sleep quality.ConclusionsFour distinct trajectories of outdoor time, screen time and sleep were identified, with the most common (and healthiest) characterized by high levels of sleep. Maternal beliefs, attitudes, expectations and behaviours are important in the development of movement behaviour trajectories across early childhood. Future interventions and public policy may benefit from targeting these factors to support healthy movement behaviours from a young age.

JOINT TRAJECTORIES OF SOCIAL ISOLATION AND LONELINESS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON ACCELERATED BIOLOGICAL AGING

Abstract Social isolation and loneliness (SI/L) are associated with a variety of physical and mental health conditions. Biological aging is a proposed mechanism through which psychosocial factors drive health disparities. However, it is not known how SI/L separately and jointly affect biological aging. Using longitudinal data (N=1,965 adults, aged 50+) in Health and Retirement Study (2006 to 2016), we tested the joint trajectories of SI/L and their differential effects on biological aging as quantified by five DNA Methylation clocks (Horvath, Hannum, PhenoAge, GrimAge, and DunedinPoAm). A group-based mixture modeling approach was used to fit the joint trajectories of SI/L. Biological aging was measured using residuals from regressing each clock on chronological age. Linear regressions were used to test associations of joint trajectories of SI/L with biological aging. Four SI/L trajectories were identified, including Rarely isolated and rarely lonely (47.8%), Moderately isolated and rarely lonely (15.5%), Rarely isolated and severely lonely (20.2%), and Persistently isolated and lonely (16.5%). Of all joint trajectory groups, the Rarely isolated and rarely lonely group had the youngest biological age as estimated by the Hannum, PhenoAge, and GrimAge clocks. Compared with the Rarely isolated and severely lonely group, the Moderately isolated and rarely lonely group had higher age acceleration for PhenoAge (β=0.10; 95% CI=0.01, 0.19), and GrimAge (β=0.20; 95% CI=0.06,0.33), and DunedinPoAm (β=0.21; 95% CI=0.09,0.33). Different trajectories of SI/L convey differential risks to biological aging. Future research is needed to investigate the differences and similarities of SI/L trajectories and identify intervention targets for ameliorating aging.

Multi-trajectory analysis of changes in physical activity and body mass index in relation to retirement: Finnish Retirement and Aging study.

Physical activity and body mass index (BMI) have been reported to change around retirement. The objective was to examine the concurrent changes in physical activity and BMI around retirement, which have not been studied before. In addition, the associations of different demographic characteristics with these changes were examined. The prospective cohort study consisted of 3,351 participants in the ongoing Finnish Retirement and Ageing Study (FIREA). Repeated postal survey, including questions on physical activity and body weight and height, was conducted once a year up to five times before and after the retirement transition, the mean follow-up time being 3.6 years (SD 0.7). Group-based multi-trajectory modeling was used to identify several clusters with dissimilar concurrent changes in physical activity and BMI within the studied cohort. Of the participants, 83% were women. The mean age at the last wave before retirement was 63.3 (SD 1.4) years. Four clusters with different trajectories of physical activity and BMI were identified. BMI remained stable around retirement transition in all four clusters, varying from normal weight to class II obesity. The association of BMI trajectories with physical activity levels were inverse, however, each activity trajectory showed a temporary increase during the retirement transition. Retirement seems to have more effect on physical activity than BMI, showing a temporary increase in physical activity at the time of retirement.

Multidimensional trajectories of multimorbidity, functional status, cognitive performance, and depressive symptoms among diverse groups of older adults.

Inter-relationships between multimorbidity and geriatric syndromes are poorly understood. This study assesses heterogeneity in joint trajectories of somatic disease, functional status, cognitive performance, and depressive symptomatology. We analyzed 16years of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS, 1998-2016) for n = 11,565 older adults (≥65years) in the United States. Group-based mixture modeling identified latent clusters of older adults following similar joint trajectories across domains. We identified four distinct multidimensional trajectory groups: (1) Minimal Impairment with Low Multimorbidity (32.7% of the sample; mean = 0.60 conditions at age 65, 2.1 conditions at age 90) had limited deterioration; (2) Minimal Impairment with High Multimorbidity (32.9%; mean = 2.3 conditions at age 65, 4.0 at age 90) had minimal deterioration; (3) Multidomain Impairment with Intermediate Multimorbidity (19.9%; mean = 1.3 conditions at age 65, 2.7 at age 90) had moderate depressive symptomatology and functional impariments with worsening cognitive performance; (4) Multidomain Impairment with High Multimorbidity (14.1%; mean = 3.3 conditions at age 65; 4.7 at age 90) had substantial functional limitation and high depressive symptomatology with worsening cognitive performance. Black and Hispanic race/ethnicity, lower wealth, lower education, male sex, and smoking history were significantly associated with membership in the two Multidomain Impairment classes. There is substantial heterogeneity in combined trajectories of interrelated health domains in late life. Membership in the two most impaired classes was more likely for minoritized older adults.