Rapid population growth and rising demand have led to increased groundwater extraction, underscoring the importance of effective water resource management. While groundwater models are practical tools, their reliance on extensive hydrogeological and hydrological data can pose challenges when such data is unavailable or inaccessible. In this study, two modeling approaches were employed for the prediction and characterization of groundwater behavior in Ardabil Plain from October 2010 to March 2021. Initially, groundwater behavior was modeled using Modflow. Subsequently, the groundwater behavior was modeled within the same time frame using the hybrid CatBoost-AOA model. Groundwater levels were then determined using these two models until the year 2031. The CatBoost-AOA hybrid method showed the highest agreement (correlation coefficient: 0.9977). Modflow and CatBoost models predicted a decline of 0.77 and 0.85 m, respectively, until 2031. This study aims to guide sustainable development planning, with CatBoost-AOA providing a simplified and efficient alternative for accurately forecasting groundwater fluctuations.