Grounding Line Retreat Research Articles

Change in grounding line location on the Antarctic Peninsula measured using a tidal motion offset correlation method

Abstract. The grounding line position of glaciers and ice shelves is an essential observation for the study of the Earth's ice sheets. However, in some locations, such as the Antarctic Peninsula, where many grounding lines have not been mapped since the 1990s, remote sensing of grounding line position remains challenging. Here we present a tidal motion offset correlation (TMOC) method for measuring the grounding line position of tidewater glaciers and ice shelves, based on the correlation between tide amplitude and synthetic aperture radar offset tracking measurements. We apply this method to the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to automatically delineate a new grounding line position for 2019–2020, with near complete coverage along 9300 km of coastline, updating the 20-year-old record. A comparison of the TMOC grounding line to contemporaneous interferometrically measured grounding line position shows the method has a mean seaward offset compared to interferometry of 185 m and a standard deviation of 295 m. Our results show that over the last 24 years there has been grounding line retreat at a number of fast-flowing ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula, with the most retreat concentrated in the north-eastern sector, where grounding lines have retreated following the collapse of ice shelves. We observe a maximum grounding line retreat since 1996 of 16.3 ± 0.5 km on Hektoria Glacier, with other notable glaciers retreating by 9.3 ± 0.5, 9.1 ± 0.5 and 3.6 ± 0.5 km. Our results document dynamic change on Antarctic Peninsula glaciers and show the importance of using an updated grounding line location to delineate the boundary between floating and grounded ice.

Modeling Ocean Heat Transport to the Grounding Lines of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers, West Antarctica

AbstractPine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica experience rapid mass loss and grounding line retreat due to enhanced ocean thermal forcing from Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) reaching the grounding lines. We use simulated Lagrangian particles advected with a looping 1 year output from the Southern Ocean high‐resolution model to backtrack the transport and cooling of CDW to these glaciers. For the simulated year 2005–2006, we find that the median time needed to reach the grounding lines from the edge of the ASE is 3 years. In addition, the Antarctic Coastal Current contributes an equal number of particles as off‐shelf sources to the grounding lines of Pine Island and Thwaites. For CDW coming from off‐shelf, results from SOhi indicate that 25%–66% of the cooling occurs within ice shelf cavities.

The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica

Abstract. The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is of vital importance given the coastal and societal implications of ice loss, with a potential to raise sea level by up to 58 m if it melts entirely. However, future ice-sheet trajectories remain highly uncertain. One of the main sources of uncertainty is related to nonlinear processes and feedbacks between the ice sheet and the Earth System on different timescales. Due to these feedbacks and ice-sheet inertia, ice loss may already be triggered in the next decades or centuries and will then unfold thereafter on timescales on the order of multiple centuries to millennia. This committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is not reflected in typical sea-level projections based on mass balance changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which often cover decadal-to-centennial timescales. Here, using two ice-sheet models, we systematically assess the long-term multi-millennial sea-level commitment from Antarctica in response to warming projected over the next centuries under low- and high-emission pathways. This allows us to bring together the time horizon of stakeholder planning and the much longer response times of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our results show that warming levels representative of the lower-emission pathway, SSP1-2.6, may already result in an Antarctic mass loss of up to 6 m of sea-level equivalent on multi-millennial timescales. This committed mass loss is due to a strong grounding-line retreat in the West Antarctic Amundsen Sea embayment as well as potential drainage from the Ross Ice Shelf catchment and onset of ice loss from Wilkes subglacial basin in East Antarctica. Beyond the warming levels reached by the end of this century under the higher-emission trajectory, SSP5-8.5, a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is triggered in the entire ensemble of simulations from both ice-sheet models. Under enhanced warming, next to ice loss from the marine subglacial basins, we also find a substantial decline in ice volume grounded above sea level in East Antarctica. Over the next millennia, this gives rise to a sea-level increase of up to 40 m in our simulations, stressing the importance of including the committed Antarctic sea-level contribution in future projections.

Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet

AbstractWarmer ocean conditions could impact future ice loss from Antarctica due to their ability to thin and reduce the buttressing of laterally confined ice shelves. Previous studies highlight the potential for a cold to warm ocean regime shift within the sub-shelf cavities of the two largest Antarctic ice shelves—the Filchner–Ronne and Ross. However, how this impacts upstream ice flow and mass loss has not been quantified. Here using an ice sheet model and an ensemble of ocean-circulation model sub-shelf melt rates, we show that transition to a warm state in those ice shelf cavities leads to a destabilization and irreversible grounding line retreat in some locations. Once this ocean shift takes place, ice loss from the Filchner–Ronne and Ross catchments is greatly accelerated, and conditions begin to resemble those of the present-day Amundsen Sea sector—responsible for most current observed Antarctic ice loss—where this thermal shift has already occurred.

Melting of Totten Glacier, East Antarctica since the Last Glacial Maximum Revealed by Beryllium Isotope Ratios of Marine Sediment

The Totten Glacier of East Antarctica drains a basin containing about 3.5 m of sea-level rise equivalent ice. While Totten Glacier is generally considered somewhat more stable than the rapidly retreating sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, such as the Amundsen Sea Embayment and Getz Ice Shelf, our understanding of its intricate dynamics and interaction with the Southern Ocean since the Last Glacial Maximum remains incomplete. Situated in a precarious position grounded below sea level, Totten Glacier represents a critical yet enigmatic component of East Antarctic ice dynamics. Its susceptibility to marine ice sheet instability raises concerns, as positive feedback from grounding line retreat could trigger irreversible ice discharge or even complete collapse. A meticulous reconstruction of the retreat history of the Totten Glacier is imperative to comprehensively grasp the glacier's response to present and future climate changes.Here, we present a beryllium isotope ratio analysis of marine sediment from the continental slope proximal to Totten Glacier, the first such record from this location, supplemented by grain size data from the same sediment core. The results, when evaluated together with nearby proxy records, reveal that the initial deglaciation of the Totten Glacier sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet began at ca. 21 ka BP. The rapid deglaciation from ca. 7 ka BP that followed is determined to be caused by the intrusion of modified Circumpolar Deep Water, leading to melting at the grounding zone of the Totten Glacier and causing instability of the glacier system. The southward shift and intensification of Antarctic easterlies may be one of the causes of this intrusion. These results contribute to the body of knowledge regarding the dynamical response of marine-terminating glaciers to climate variability during the last deglaciation.

Holocene thinning in central Greenland controlled by the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream

Ice-core records from the interior of the Greenland ice sheet suggest widespread thinning during the Holocene. However, the recurring underestimation of this thinning in numerical models raises concerns about both the veracity of such reconstructions and the reliability of glaciological models. Recent work suggests the 8000-year-old Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), including a now-extinct northern tributary, may have been an early influence on Greenland ice-sheet dynamics. Yet, the inaccurate reproduction of NEGIS-like dynamics in most models hampers investigation of whether this feature played a role in Holocene ice-sheet thinning. Here we show that grounding-line retreat in northeast Greenland triggers elevation changes at the northern summit via ice-dynamic effects modulated by the paleo NEGIS system. In our simulations, fast ice-stream flow caused by transiently imposed reduced basal shear stress following the northeast retreat explains 55% ( ± 18%) of the estimated ice thinning, showing that ice-stream dynamics is one of the main drivers of the NGRIP Holocene surface elevation drop. Our findings show that the ice-flow in northeast Greenland plays a large role in ice-surface elevation changes in central Greenland.

Diverse behaviors of marine ice sheets in response to temporal variability of the atmospheric and basal conditions

Abstract The observed retreat of the grounding line of the present-day ice sheets and the simulated grounding-line retreat of ice sheets under changing climate conditions are often interpreted as indications of marine ice-sheet instability (MISI), driven by a positive feedback between the ice discharge and conditions at the grounding line. However, the arguments that support this feedback are valid only for steady-state conditions. Here, we assess how unconfined marine ice sheets may behave if atmospheric conditions and basal conditions evolve with time. We find that the behavior of grounding lines can exhibit a range from unstoppable advance and retreat to irregular oscillation irrespective of the stability of the corresponding steady-state configurations obtained with time-invariant conditions. Our results show that numerical simulations with a parameterization of the ice flux through the grounding line used in large-scale ice-sheet models produce markedly different results from simulations without the parameterization. Our analysis demonstrates that the grounding-line migration can be driven by the temporal variability in the atmospheric and basal conditions and not by MISI, which assumes unchanging conditions. Instead, the grounding-line advance or retreat is determined by interactions between ice flow, basal processes and environmental conditions throughout the length of a marine ice sheet in addition to the circumstances at its grounding line.

Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector

Abstract. The Amundsen Sea sector has some of the fastest-thinning ice shelves in Antarctica, caused by high, ocean-driven basal melt rates, which can lead to increased ice streamflow, causing increased sea level rise (SLR) contributions. In this study, we present the results of a new synchronously coupled ice-sheet–ocean model of the Amundsen Sea sector. We use the Wavelet-based, Adaptive-grid, Vertically Integrated ice sheet model (WAVI) to solve for ice velocities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to solve for ice thickness and three-dimensional ocean properties, allowing for full mass conservation in the coupled ice–ocean system. The coupled model is initialised in the present day and run forward under idealised warm and cold ocean conditions with a fixed ice front. We find that Thwaites Glacier dominates the future SLR from the Amundsen Sea sector, with a SLR that evolves approximately quadratically over time. The future evolution of Thwaites Glacier depends on the lifespan of small pinning points that form during the retreat. The rate of melting around these pinning points provides the link between future ocean conditions and the SLR from this sector and will be difficult to capture without a coupled ice–ocean model. Grounding-line retreat leads to a progressively larger Thwaites Ice Shelf cavity, leading to a positive trend in total melting, resulting from the increased ice basal surface area. Despite these important sensitivities, Thwaites Glacier retreats even in a scenario with zero ocean-driven melting. This demonstrates that a tipping point may have been passed in these simulations and some SLR from this sector is now committed.

Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene

Recent geologic and modeled evidence suggests that the grounding line of the Siple Coast of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreated hundreds of kilometers beyond its present position in the middle to late Holocene and readvanced within the past 1.7 ka. This grounding line reversal has been attributed to both changing rates of isostatic rebound and regional climate change. Here, we test these two hypotheses using a proxy-informed ensemble of ice sheet model simulations with varying ocean thermal forcing, global glacioisostatic adjustment (GIA) model simulations, and coupled ice sheet-GIA simulations that consider the interactions between these processes. Our results indicate that a warm to cold ocean cavity regime shift is the most likely cause of this grounding line reversal, but that GIA influences the rate of ice sheet response to oceanic changes. This implies that the grounding line here is sensitive to future changes in sub-ice shelf ocean circulation.

Characterizing sub-glacial hydrology using radar simulations

Abstract. The structure and distribution of sub-glacial water directly influences Antarctic ice mass loss by reducing or enhancing basal shear stress and accelerating grounding line retreat. A common technique for detecting sub-glacial water involves analyzing the spatial variation in reflectivity from an airborne radar echo sounding (RES) survey. Basic RES analysis exploits the high dielectric contrast between water and most other substrate materials, where a reflectivity increase ≥ 15 dB is frequently correlated with the presence of sub-glacial water. There are surprisingly few additional tools to further characterize the size, shape, or extent of hydrological systems beneath large ice masses. We adapted an existing radar backscattering simulator to model RES reflections from sub-glacial water structures using the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG) Multifrequency Airborne Radar Sounder with Full-phase Assessment (MARFA) instrument. Our series of hypothetical simulation cases modeled water structures from 5 to 50 m wide, surrounded by bed materials of varying roughness. We compared the relative reflectivity from rounded Röthlisberger channels and specular flat canals, showing both types of channels exhibit a positive correlation between size and reflectivity. Large (> 20 m), flat canals can increase reflectivity by more than 20 dB, while equivalent Röthlisberger channels show only modest reflectivity gains of 8–13 dB. Changes in substrate roughness may also alter observed reflectivity by 3–6 dB. All of these results indicate that a sophisticated approach to RES interpretation can be useful in constraining the size and shape of sub-glacial water features. However, a highly nuanced treatment of the geometric context is necessary. Finally, we compared simulated outputs to actual reflectivity from a single RES flight line collected over Thwaites Glacier in 2022. The flight line crosses a previously proposed Röthlisberger channel route, with an obvious bright bed reflection in the radargram. Through multiple simulations comparing various water system geometries, such as canals and sub-glacial lakes, we demonstrated the important role that topography and water geometry can play in observed RES reflectivity. From the scenarios that we tested, we concluded the bright reflector from our RES flight line cannot be a Röthlisberger channel but could be consistent with a series of flat canals or a sub-glacial lake. However, we note our simulations were not exhaustive of all possible sub-glacial water configurations. The approach outlined here has broad applicability for studying the basal environment of large glaciers. We expect to apply this technique when constraining the geometry and extent of many sub-glacial hydrologic structures in the future. Further research may also include comprehensive investigations of the impact of sub-glacial roughness, substrate heterogeneity, and computational efficiencies enabling more complex and complete simulations.

Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model

Abstract. We use an observationally calibrated ice-sheet model to investigate the future trajectory of the Antarctic ice sheet related to uncertainties in the future balance between sub-shelf melting and ice discharge, on the one hand, and the surface mass balance, on the other. Our ensemble of simulations, forced by a panel of climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), suggests that the ocean will be the primary driver of short-term Antarctic mass loss, initiating ice loss in West Antarctica already during this century. The atmosphere initially plays a mitigating role through increased snowfall, leading to an Antarctic contribution to global mean sea-level rise by 2100 of 6 (−8 to 15) cm under a low-emission scenario and 5.5 (−10 to 16) cm under a very high-emission scenario. However, under the very high-emission pathway, the influence of the atmosphere shifts beyond the end of the century, becoming an amplifying driver of mass loss as the ice sheet's surface mass balance decreases. We show that this transition occurs when Antarctic near-surface warming exceeds a critical threshold of +7.5 ∘C, at which the increase in surface runoff outweighs the increase in snow accumulation, a signal that is amplified by the melt–elevation feedback. Therefore, under the very high-emission scenario, oceanic and atmospheric drivers are projected to result in a complete collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet along with significant grounding-line retreat in the marine basins of the East Antarctic ice sheet, leading to a median global mean sea-level rise of 2.75 (6.95) m by 2300 (3000). Under a more sustainable socio-economic pathway, we find that the Antarctic ice sheet may still contribute to a median global mean sea-level rise of 0.62 (1.85) m by 2300 (3000). However, the rate of sea-level rise is significantly reduced as mass loss is likely to remain confined to the Amundsen Sea Embayment, where present-day climate conditions seem sufficient to commit to a continuous retreat of Thwaites Glacier.

Heterogeneous Basal Thermal Conditions Underpinning the Adélie‐George V Coast, East Antarctica

AbstractAdélie‐George V Land in East Antarctica, encompassing the vast Wilkes Subglacial Basin, has a configuration that could be prone to ice sheet instability: the basin's retrograde bed slope could make its marine terminating glaciers vulnerable to warm seawater intrusion and irreversible retreat under predicted climate forcing. However, future projections are uncertain, due in part to limited subglacial observations near the grounding zone. Here, we develop a novel statistical approach to characterize subglacial conditions from radar sounding observations. Our method reveals intermixed frozen and thawed bed within 100 km of the grounding‐zone near the Wilkes Subglacial Basin outflow, and enables comparisons to ice sheet model‐inferred thermal states. The signs of intermixed or near thawed conditions raises the possibility that changes in basal thermal state could impact the stability of Adélie‐George V Land, adding to the region's potentially vulnerable topographic configuration and sensitivity to ocean forcing driven grounding line retreat.

Inland thinning of Byrd Glacier, Antarctica, during Ross Ice Shelf formation

AbstractGeomorphological records of past ice sheet change offer the opportunity to examine their centennial‐scale response to changing boundary conditions, which are not adequately captured in the satellite record. Here, we present the first reconstruction of ice surface lowering at Byrd Glacier, the largest outlet glacier of the Transantarctic Mountains. Using surface exposure ages from glacial erratic cobbles collected in two vertical transects along the Lonewolf Nunataks, we find the initial emergence of this set of nunataks occurred at ~15 ka, with a rapid pulse of thinning at ~8 ka. We compare our glacier thinning profiles with modelled ice sheet thickness and grounding line histories from two model ensembles to identify key processes responsible for ice sheet change. All model runs from the two ensembles predict grounding line retreat and inland thinning to occur in one rapid step from Last Glacial Maximum to present, in line with marine geology records, our exposure age data and derived glacier thinning rates. Experiments best matching the glacial thickness constraints, reconstructed from the surface exposure data, have faster basal sliding (i.e., promote greater sliding rates resulting in thinner ice). However, experiments best matching the timing and rapid rate of ice thinning derived from the same surface exposure data have higher basal friction. This apparent change in the modelled basal sliding regime, from when the ice surface is at maximum thickness, to the rapid thinning at ~8 ka, occurs as the grounding line retreats towards the Byrd Glacier and Ross Ice Shelf forms during the Holocene. This past context has implications for the stability of the modern grounding line of Byrd Glacier, which is characterised by high basal melt rates at the terminus—a process that has the potential to propagate glacier thinning far inland, impacting the overall (in)stability of the Byrd Glacier and Ross Ice Shelf.

The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded

Abstract. Observations of ocean-driven grounding-line retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in Antarctica raise the question of an imminent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we analyse the committed evolution of Antarctic grounding lines under the present-day climate. To this aim, we first calibrate a sub-shelf melt parameterization, which is derived from an ocean box model, with observed and modelled melt sensitivities to ocean temperature changes, making it suitable for present-day simulations and future sea level projections. Using the new calibration, we run an ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 to 2015 with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model to create model instances of possible present-day ice sheet configurations. Then, we extend the simulations for another 10 000 years to investigate their evolution under constant present-day climate forcing and bathymetry. We test for reversibility of grounding-line movement in the case that large-scale retreat occurs. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment we find irreversible retreat of the Thwaites Glacier for all our parameter combinations and irreversible retreat of the Pine Island Glacier for some admissible parameter combinations. Importantly, an irreversible collapse in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector is initiated at the earliest between 300 and 500 years in our simulations and is not inevitable yet – as also shown in our companion paper (Part 1, Hill et al., 2023). In other words, the region has not tipped yet. With the assumption of constant present-day climate, the collapse evolves on millennial timescales, with a maximum rate of 0.9 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. The contribution to sea level by 2300 is limited to 8 cm with a maximum rate of 0.4 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. Furthermore, when allowing ice shelves to regrow to their present geometry, we find that large-scale grounding-line retreat into marine basins upstream of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the western Siple Coast is reversible. Other grounding lines remain close to their current positions in all configurations under present-day climate.

Extensive and anomalous grounding line retreat at Vanderford Glacier, Vincennes Bay, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica

Abstract. Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over recent decades in response to enhanced oceanic forcing. Overlying the Aurora Subglacial Basin, it has been referred to as the “weak underbelly” of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is drained by several major outlet glaciers. Despite their potential importance, few of these glaciers have been studied in detail. This includes the six outlet glaciers which drain into Vincennes Bay, a region recently discovered to have the warmest intrusions of modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) ever recorded in East Antarctica. Here, we use satellite imagery; differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR); and remotely sensed datasets of ice-surface velocity, ice-surface elevation and grounding line position to investigate ice dynamics between 1963 and 2022. Our results support previous observations of extensive grounding line retreat at Vanderford Glacier, measured at 18.6 km between 1996 and 2020. The persistent grounding line retreat, averaging 0.8 km yr−1, places Vanderford Glacier as the fastest retreating glacier in East Antarctica, and the third fastest in Antarctica, across decadal timescales. Such rapid retreat is consistent with the hypothesis that warm mCDW is able to access deep cavities formed below the Vanderford Ice Shelf, driving high rates of basal melting close to the grounding line. With a retrograde slope observed inland along the Vanderford Trench, such oceanic forcing may have significant implications for the future stability of Vanderford Glacier.

Widespread slowdown in thinning rates of West Antarctic ice shelves

Abstract. Antarctica's floating ice shelves modulate discharge of grounded ice into the ocean by providing a backstress. Ice shelf thinning and grounding line retreat have reduced this backstress, driving rapid drawdown of key unstable areas of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, leading to sea-level rise. If ice shelf loss continues, it may initiate irreversible glacier retreat through the marine ice sheet instability. Identification of areas undergoing significant change requires knowledge of spatial and temporal patterns in recent ice shelf loss. We used 26 years (1992–2017) of satellite-derived Antarctic ice shelf thickness, flow, and basal melt rates to construct a time-dependent dataset of ice shelf thickness and basal melt on a 3 km grid every 3 months. We used a novel data fusion approach, state-of-the-art satellite-derived velocities, and a new surface mass balance model. Our data revealed an overall pattern of thinning all around Antarctica, with a thinning slowdown starting around 2008 widespread across the Amundsen, Bellingshausen, and Wilkes sectors. We attribute this slowdown partly to modulation in external ocean forcing, altered in West Antarctica by negative feedbacks between ice shelf thinning rates and grounded ice flow, and sub-ice-shelf cavity geometry and basal melting. In agreement with earlier studies, the highest rates of ice shelf thinning are found for those ice shelves located in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen sectors. Our study reveals that over the 1992–2017 observational period the Amundsen and Bellingshausen ice shelves experienced a slight reduction in rates of basal melting, suggesting that high rates of thinning are largely a response to changes in ocean conditions that predate our satellite altimetry record, with shorter-term variability only resulting in small deviations from the long-term trend. Our work demonstrates that causal inference drawn from ice shelf thinning and basal melt rates must take into account complex feedbacks between thinning and ice advection and between ice shelf draft and basal melt rates.

Offshore-onshore record of Last Glacial Maximum–to–present grounding line retreat at Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica

Abstract Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, is the largest Antarctic contributor to global sea-level rise and is vulnerable to rapid retreat, yet our knowledge of its deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is based largely on marine sediments that record a retreat history ending in the early Holocene. Using a suite of 10Be exposure ages from onshore glacial deposits directly adjacent to Pine Island Glacier, we show that this major glacier thinned rapidly in the early to mid-Holocene. Our results indicate that Pine Island Glacier was at least 690 m thicker than present prior to ca. 8 ka. We infer that the rapid thinning detected at the site farthest downstream records the arrival and stabilization of the retreating grounding line at that site by 8–6 ka. By combining our exposure ages and the marine record, we extend knowledge of Pine Island Glacier retreat both spatially and temporally: to 50 km from the modern grounding line and to the mid-Holocene, providing a data set that is important for future numerical ice-sheet model validation.

Towards modelling of corrugation ridges at ice-sheet grounding lines

Abstract. Improvements in the resolution of sea-floor mapping techniques have revealed extremely regular, sub-metre-scale ridge landforms produced by the tidal flexure of ice-shelf grounding lines as they retreated very rapidly (i.e. at rates of several kilometres per year). Guided by such novel sea-floor observations from Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, we present three mathematical models for the formation of these corrugation ridges at a tidally migrating grounding line (that is retreating at a constant rate), where each ridge is formed by either constant till flux to the grounding line, till extrusion from the grounding line, or the resuspension and transport of grains from the grounding-zone bed. We find that both till extrusion (squeezing out till like toothpaste as the ice sheet re-settles on the sea floor) and resuspension and transport of material can qualitatively reproduce regular, delicate ridges at a retreating grounding line, as described by sea-floor observations. By considering the known properties of subglacial sediments, we agree with existing schematic models that the most likely mechanism for ridge formation is till extrusion at each low-tide position, essentially preserving an imprint of the ice-sheet grounding line as it retreated. However, when realistic (shallow) bed slopes are used in the simulations, ridges start to overprint one another, suggesting that, to preserve the regular ridges that have been observed, grounding line retreat rates (driven by dynamic thinning?) may be even higher than previously thought.

‘Stable’ and ‘unstable’ are not useful descriptions of marine ice sheets in the Earth's climate system

Investigations of the time-dependent behavior of marine ice sheets and their sensitivity to basal conditions require numerical models because existing theoretical analyses focus only on steady-state configurations primarily with a power-law basal shear stress. Numerical results indicate that the choice of the sliding law strongly affects ice-sheet dynamic behavior. Although observed or simulated grounding-line retreat is typically interpreted as an indication of marine ice sheet instability introduced by Weertman (1974), this (in)stability is a characteristic of the ice sheet's steady states – not time-variant behavior. To bridge the gap between theoretical and numerical results, we develop a framework to investigate grounding line dynamics with generalized basal and lateral stresses (i.e. the functional dependencies are not specified). Motivated by observations of internal variability of the Southern Ocean conditions we explore the grounding-line response to stochastic variability. We find that adding stochastic variability to submarine melt rates that produced stable steady-state configurations leads to intermittently advancing and retreating grounding lines. They can also retreat in an unstoppable manner on time-scales significantly longer than the stochastic correlation time-scales. These results suggest that at any given time of their evolution, the transient behavior of marine ice sheets cannot be described in terms of ‘stable’ or ‘unstable’.

Reversible ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the Late Holocene

Abstract. Cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations in subglacial bedrock cores show that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) at a site between Thwaites and Pope glaciers was at least 35 m thinner than present in the past several thousand years and then subsequently thickened. This is important because of concern that present thinning and grounding line retreat at these and nearby glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment may irreversibly lead to deglaciation of significant portions of the WAIS, with decimeter- to meter-scale sea level rise within decades to centuries. A past episode of ice sheet thinning that took place in a similar, although not identical, climate was not irreversible. We propose that the past thinning–thickening cycle was due to a glacioisostatic rebound feedback, similar to that invoked as a possible stabilizing mechanism for current grounding line retreat, in which isostatic uplift caused by Early Holocene thinning led to relative sea level fall favoring grounding line advance.